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1.
Forest fire frequency in Mediterranean countries is expected to increase with land cover and climate changes as temperatures rise and rainfall patterns are altered. Although the cause of many Mediterranean fires remains poorly defined, most fires are of anthropogenic origin and are located in the wildland urban interface (WUI), so fire ignition risk depends on both weather and land cover characteristics. The objectives of this study were to quantify the overall trends in forest fire risk in the WUI of the Alpes-Maritimes department in SE France over a period of almost 50 years (about 1960–2009) and relate these to changes in land cover and temperature changes. Land cover for two contrasting reference catchments (236 km2 and 289 km2, respectively) was mapped from available aerial photographs. Changes in fire risk over time were estimated using statistical relationships defined for each type of WUI, where isolated and scattered housing present a greater risk than dense and very dense housing. Summer monthly temperatures and spring and summer precipitation were quantified over the same temporal period as land cover. Finally, trends in fire frequency and burned area were analyzed over a shorter 37 year period (1973–2009) due to the lack of available fire data before 1973. Fire risk associated with WUI expansion increased by about 18%–80% over the 1960–2009 period (depending on the catchment). Similarly, mean summer minimum and maximum monthly temperatures increased by 1.8 °C and 1.4 °C, respectively, over the same period. Summer rainfall appears to decrease over time since about the 1970's but remains highly variable. Land cover and weather changes both suggest an overall increase in fire risk. However, the number of fires and burned area have decreased significantly since about 1990. This paradoxical result is due to a change in fire-fighting strategy which reinforced the systematic extinction of fires in their early stages. Technical support in the form of improved radio communication and helicopters contributed greatly to reducing fire frequency and burned area. Surveillance and legal reforms included the introduction of field patrols and restricted access to forests during high risk periods. Although this has proven highly successful in the short term, the risk of fuel load accumulation over time remains a risk which might contribute to the development of mega-fires in extreme climatic conditions in the future. 相似文献
2.
Influences of forest roads on the spatial patterns of human- and lightning-caused wildfire ignitions 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ganapathy Narayanaraj Michael C. Wimberly 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):878-888
Understanding the spatial patterns of fire ignitions and fire sizes is essential for understanding fire regimes. Although previous studies have documented associations of human-caused fire ignitions with road corridors, less consideration has been given to understanding the multiple influences of roads on the fire regime at a broader landscape-scale. Therefore, we examined the difference between lightning- and human-caused fire ignitions in relation to forest road corridors and other anthropogenic and biophysical factors in the eastern Cascade Mountains of Washington State. We used geographical information systems and case-control logistic regression models to assess the relative importance of these explanatory variables that influence the locations of lightning versus human-caused ignitions.We found that human-caused ignitions were concentrated close to roads, in high road density areas, and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI). In contrast, lightning-caused ignitions were concentrated in low road density areas, away from WUI, and in low population density areas. Lightning-caused ignitions were also associated with fuels and climatic and topographic factors. A weak but significant relationship between lightning-caused fire and proximity to gravel roads may be related to fuels near roads or to bias in detection and reporting of lightning-caused fires near roads. Although most small fires occurred in roaded areas, they accounted for only a small proportion of the total burned area. In contrast, the large fires in roadless and wilderness areas accounted for most of the burned area. Thus, from the standpoint of the total area burned, the effect of forest roads on restricting fire size is likely greater than the impact of roads on increasing fire ignitions. The results of our study suggest that roads and their edge effect area should be more widely acknowledged as a unique type of landscape effect in fire research and management. 相似文献
3.
Wildfires are widely reviewed as key inputs to Mediterranean ecosystems. However, research is often flawed by major biases. (1) The approach adopted by most planners focusing on forest fires dismisses the human dimension of fire as a component of agricultural production systems. (2) The Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) concept postulates that cities and wildlands/wildfires are, and should remain, worlds apart, a statement whose truth is increasingly questioned by recent disastrous “urban wildfires”. (3) The Mediterranean Basin as a fire-prone area is all the more fantasized, as it is almost never studied as a whole.The present paper takes a critical view of city–wildland/wildfire interrelationships through a large-scale study of the Mediterranean Basin based on MODIS MCD12Q1 (Land Cover Type) and MCD45A1 (Burned Area Product) data collected between 2001 and 2013. The Mediterranean is an ideal place to investigate, as its human-dominated and urbanized landscapes are known to be extremely vulnerable to fire hazards. Data processing reveals that (wild)fires and cities maintain indissoluble ties, as if both elements could not be considered mutually exclusive on a geographical basis. Urban sprawl, reduced rural autonomies, changes in forest covers, old agricultural practices, and military conflicts provide the framework for an extended mitigation process challenging the WUI concept as a space divider. 相似文献
4.
Development of efficient forest wildfire policies requires an understanding of the underlying reasons behind forest fire occurrences. Globally, there is a close relationship between forest wildfires and human activities; most wildfires are human events due to negligence (e.g., agricultural burning escapes) and deliberate actions (e.g., vandalism, pyromania, revenge, land use change attempts). We model the risk of wildfire as a function of the spatial pattern of urban development and the abandonment/intensity of agricultural and forestry activities, while controlling for biophysical and climatic factors. We use a count data approach to model deliberately set fires in Galicia, N.W. Spain, where wildfire is a significant threat to forest ecosystems, with nearly 100,000 wildfires recorded during a thirteen-year period (1999–2011). The spatial units of analysis are more than 3600 parishes. Data for the human influences are derived from fine-resolution maps of wildland–urban interface (WUI), housing spatial arrangements, road density, forest ownership, and vegetation type. We found wildfire risk to be higher where there are human populations and development/urbanisation pressure, as well as in unattended forest areas due to both rural exodus and a fragmented forest ownership structure that complicates the profitability of forestry practices. To better help direct management efforts, parameter estimates from our model were used to predict wildfire counts under alternative scenarios that account for variation across space on future land-use conditions. Policies that incentivize cooperative forest management and that constrain urban development in wildlands at hotspot fire locations are shown to reduce wildfire risk. Our results highlight the need for spatially targeted fire management strategies. 相似文献
5.
The authors use 1974 survey data from three marginal communities in the city of Limon, Costa Rica, to examine the propensity of settlers in such communities to move voluntarily. In particular, the concept of residential satisifaction is examined and refined 相似文献
6.
随着中国住房改革的推进,城市居民通过居住迁移进行住房调整的行为日趋频繁。居住迁移作为城市空间分异和重构的微观机制在城市地理学、住房研究中得到了广泛关注,然而现有研究主要考察居住迁移的发生概率和驱动因素,较少论及居住迁移中的区位选择。论文基于2018年“上海市居民住房和生活空间调查”问卷,采用生命历程和时间地理学视角,刻画居民居住迁移的时空轨迹,并使用多项逻辑斯蒂回归模型探究居住迁移前后居住区位变化的影响因素。研究发现,上海市居民居住迁移的主要区位选择为跨环线向外迁移,但不同世代、不同户口、不同住房产权的居民的居住区位选择有较大差异。生命历程中的年龄、可达性中的工作单位区位以及住房属性中的产权性质都是影响居住迁移区位选择的重要因素。 相似文献
7.
森林火灾能对森林资源造成巨大的危害,因此发现林区火源并进行科学决策具有重要意义.本系统数据主要包括1∶1万地形图、1∶1万森林资源二类调查数据、扑火队分布数据、瞭望台站数据、扑火物资储备数据、林业局管理机构分布数据、研究区2010年landsat TM遥感影像图等;系统功能主要包括数据的处理和管理、森林火灾监测、最佳扑火路径分析、防火扑火预案制定和决策、森林火险等级评价、林火趋势模拟和预测、灾害损失评估、相关图表和报告制作等.系统采用Microsoft Visual Studio 2005(C#)作为开发语言,基于Arc Engine 9.3组件进行二次开发,三维地图显示采用skyline Terra Explorer开发平台,数据库采用SQL Server 2005数据库管理系统,利用Arc SDE 9.3空间数据库引擎对空间数据进行管理. 相似文献
8.
In this paper, we explore migration aspects of the 1995 Quebec Sovereignty Referendum with data from a survey administered to non-francophones in Montreal two weeks prior to the Referendum. While the Quebec sovereignty issue has been around for some time and earlier exodus from the province, particularly among anglophones, is largely regarded as “forced” in some way, this study neither confirms the 1995 Sovereignty Referendum as a paramount factor in explaining outmigration from Quebec nor points to a real reluctance to leave Montreal. The decision to move is influenced by the interplay of a multitude of factors. The political influence is only an added factor to longstanding economic decline and cultural clash. Moreover, if there is any impulsion, the degree varies among different cultural and socioeconomic groups. 相似文献
9.
Good, bad or 'necessary evil'? Reinterpreting the colonial burning experiments in the savanna landscapes of West Africa 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
A simple ecological model underlies contemporary fire policy in many West African countries. The model holds that the timing (or seasonality) of annual savanna fires is a principal determinant of vegetation cover. The model's origin can be traced to the ideas held by influential colonial scientists who viewed anthropogenic fire as a prime force of regional environmental degradation. The main evidence in support of the model derives from the results of a series of long-term burning experiments carried out during last century. The experimental results have been repeatedly mapped onto fire policy often taking the form of a three-tiered model in which fire exclusion is considered the ultimate management objective, late dry-season fire is discouraged and early dry-season fire is allowed but only under specific, often state-controlled circumstances. This paper provides a critique of contemporary fire policy in the region and the fire ecology model on which it is based. Through an analysis of burn scars for the 2002–3 fire season generated from ETM+ imagery, the study documents the spatiotemporal pattern of burning for an area in southern Mali. It argues that current policy, which is informed by an a-spatial model, cannot adequately account for the critical pattern of burning that is characteristic of the region. A reinterpretation of the burning experiments is presented in light of four factors: empirical data; recent developments in patch-mosaic theory; historical evidence on the effects of fire suppression; and data on indigenous burning strategies, all of which suggest a need to reconsider current fire policy. 相似文献
10.
A driving force of urban development is “accumulation by dispossession” which occurs through expropriation, privatization, and commodification of land. While the macro theory is now well refined, there is still much we do not know about how the underlying processes occur and how they shape economic development and urbanization. In this study, we analyze 2009 survey data of land expropriation cases across 12 Chinese cities, and find that expropriation takes different forms leading to specific outcomes. In half the cases, local governments followed central government policies requiring them to pay standard rates of compensation, but in the other half, local governments negotiated with farmers over the terms of expropriation. In the latter scenario, farmers were more likely to receive compensation higher than the standard rate, particularly if they were embedded in local power structures, which we argue could be counteracted if all households in a rural collective negotiate one agreement rather than individual agreements. These findings move us closer to understanding why accumulation through dispossession sometimes contributes to economic growth and social development, and at other times undermines urban development leading to social instability. 相似文献
11.
The biophysical environment of rangelands in the arid and semi-arid lowland parts of Africa is customarily viewed as a homogenous entity. Such notion has encouraged employing a blanket management approach. However, there are perceptible variations within them which necessitate site-specific range management. This study has attempted to identify the variability of soil and forage attributes and assess the existing management practices of those resources in the Baro River plain, Ethiopia. Sample transects, representing pre- and post-fire conditions, were used to collect composite soil samples and vegetation attributes. Alongside the physical survey, a household survey was undertaken to validate the laboratory-generated information. The result showed significant differences of soil and forage attributes among different management regimes, distances from river course and dominant cover types. In general, the distribution of soil nutrients showed a 'distance decay effect', while the distribution of pH showed the reverse pattern. Application of heavy fire load and congested grazing are the principal range management related factors. About 80 per cent of sample pastoralists employ heavy fire without due consideration for the sustainability of the range resource and without considering the local variability. Recognition of site-specific information is the key to effective management of range resources in the study area. 相似文献
12.
Relatively little is known about vegetation fire regimes in China. In this study, we investigated fire regime characteristics and their potential drivers, utilizing information extracted from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite. Twelve fire regime variables were selected and computed on a regular grid over all of China, using MODIS burned area and active fire data during the period 2001 to 2016, to identify fire incidence and its inter-annual variability, seasonality, intensity, fire size distribution and vegetation types affected by fire. The variables were normalized and clustered to define six fire regimes with distinctive fire attributes. Results show that 78.6% of the land in China was affected by fire during the study period. The barren or sparsely vegetated lands of western China are nearly fire-free. Active fires were observed in Central China, but area burned was not detectable from MODIS. Forest fires in northeastern China are relatively large, infrequent, with a short fire season that peaks in non-winter seasons and higher inter-annual variability, implying a high likelihood of accidental causes. In contrast, forest fires in southern China are relatively small, frequent, with a long fire season that peaks in non-summer seasons, and lower inter-annual variability, suggesting regular use as a land management tool. Low inter-annual variability and low fire intensity were associated with cropland fires, whereas grassland fires generally exhibit the opposite traits. We have also discussed the potential drivers of each fire regime characteristics. 相似文献
13.
The study focuses on residential mobility propensities of Vietnamese immigrants in the city of Brisbane, Australia, as a principal force contributing to the persistence or change of ethnic residential segregation over time. Using 1990 survey data, discrete-time logit models are estimated to assess the effects of locational, contextual, and personal characteristics on the likelihood of changing residence within the city. The results indicate that locational variables operate in such a way that the most dominant Vietnamese neighborhood in Brisbane increases its prominence even further, while secondary Vietnamese clusters are likely to weaken. The results also indicate that initial settlement conditions are important for the first move only, whereas personal attributes contribute to variations in mobility propensities primarily in the second move. This implies that the composition of the immigrant population potentially influences the speed at which changes in ethnic residential patterns will occur in urban areas. 相似文献
14.
A. Paige Fischer Ken Vance-Borland Kelly M. Burnett S. Hummel Janean H. Creighton Sherri L. Johnson 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(7):671-688
Patterns of social interaction influence how knowledge is generated, communicated, and applied. Theories of social capital and organizational learning suggest that interactions within disciplinary or functional groups foster communication of knowledge, whereas interactions across groups foster generation of new knowledge. We used social network analysis to examine patterns of social interaction reported in survey data from scientists and managers who work on fish and fire issues. We found that few fish and fire scientists and managers interact with one another, suggesting low bridging social capital and thus, limited opportunity for generation of new knowledge. We also found that although interaction occurs among scientists—suggesting modest bonding social capital—few managers interact with other managers, indicating limited opportunity for communication of scientific knowledge for the purposes of application. We discuss constraints and opportunities for organizational learning evident in these patterns of social interaction among fish and fire scientists and managers. 相似文献
15.
KRISHNA PRASAD VADREVU 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2008,90(4):315-328
Vegetation fires are one of the most serious environmental problems in several ecoregions of India. The purpose of this study is to characterize spatio‐temporal characteristics of fire events in Orissa state, eastern India. In this study, ATSR satellite remote sensing data have been used to quantify fire events from 1997 to 2006. The spatial scan statistic that quantifies ‘hotspot’ areas of fire risk has been used to identify statistically significant fire clusters during the ten‐year time period. To assess the causative factors of fires, topographic, vegetation, climatic, anthropogenic and accessibility factors were used in a robust multivariate statistical framework. Results suggested a clear variation in hotspots of fire occurrences among districts. Of the several districts, the most likely cluster of fire events has been identified in Jharsuguda district followed by secondary clusters in Gajapati, Phulbani, Anugul, Debagarh, Balangir and Raygada. The first three principal components (PCs) from multivariate statistical analysis could explain 70.48% of variance in biophysical and socio‐economic indicators of fire events. The loadings were fairly large and highly positive for deciduous forest percentage, elevation, slope mean, aspect mean, and rural population density in the first PC explaining 40.21% of variance. The second PC included drought index, average temperature and illiteracy explaining nearly 19.2% variance. The third PC had a strong positive association with cropped area and forest cover explaining 10.98% of the total variance. Overall, by quantifying the disparities in fire events in space and time, this study demonstrates the utility of the spatial scan statistic in identifying priority areas of fire risk. Our results on fire hotspots and causative factors of risk can guide forest managers toward the best management strategies for avoiding damage to forests, human life, and personal property in the study area. 相似文献
16.
Data from the NASA'S MODIS (Aqua and Terra) and EUMETSAT'S MSG-SEVIRI satellite sensors is analysed to characterise the geographic and temporal (including diurnal) evolution of the July 2007 fire disaster in the Kingdom of Swaziland using a geographic information system (GIS). Significant fire activity was observed during a three-day period beginning on the 27th July 2007. A total of 1358 and 4365 active fire hotpots were detected by MODIS and MSG-SEVIRI, respectively, mainly concentrated in the Highveld (70.91% for MODIS, 89.89% for MSG) and Middleveld (11.27% for MODIS, 5.23% for MSG) with MSG/MODIS active fire count ratio ranging from a high of 3.69 in the Highveld to a low of 0.06 in the Lubombo Plateau. The results indicate complex differences in spatial fire distribution, behaviour and risk within the country and the effect of sensor differences. A pronounced fire diurnal cycle with a broad afternoon peak centred on 14:00 local time is observed, in general agreement with observations from the region. Despite their limitations, the study demonstrates the importance and usefulness of remotely sensed data and GIS technology for fire disaster and risk assessment for a developing country, where fire monitoring resources are scarce. 相似文献
17.
Most scholarship on rural–urban migration in Sub-Saharan Africa demonstrates that migrants tend to move in a “circular” fashion and only spend short periods of time in cities before returning home to rural villages. However, some scholars working on the impacts of climate change on migration suggest that deteriorating environmental conditions may undermine rural livelihoods and lead people to move to cities for longer periods of time. If this is true, then climate change threatens to accelerate urbanisation and lead to renewed stress on urban infrastructure. The purpose of this paper is to explore these positions and we do so by collecting survey [n = 241], in-depth interview [n = 75] and focus group [n = 123 participants] data from rural and urban Malawi. Two key results stand out as significant. The first is that migrants in Malawi's capital city tend to stay in the urban environment for longer periods of time than conventional understandings of migration would predict. The second key result is that climate change may actually lead, in the case of Malawi, to reverse (i.e urban–rural) migration. This is because many of the people in Malawi's cities depend on products produced in rural environments (e.g. food and fuelwood). If climate change undermines rural livelihoods, then many urban residents will find the basis of their livelihoods removed and will likely respond by moving back to rural villages. Overall, our results, therefore, suggest that in at least one case the effect of climate change on migration may not be to increase migration towards cities but to stimulate an exodus from cities and back to the rural countryside. 相似文献
18.
依托南京市郊区近千户城市拆迁安置家庭入户调查数据,对城市低收入居民被迫搬迁后的就业变动过程及形成原因开展统计分析,利用生命历程理论构建就业变动纵贯数据库,使用事件史分析模型动态模拟了被迫搬迁后城市低收入居民的就业变动经历,探究其影响因素。研究发现：① 90%以上的城市低收入居民被迫搬迁后经历了就业变动,就业变动集中发生在搬迁后的前4 a,研究期内人均变动1.5次;被迫搬迁后的就业变动类型多样、原因复杂,呈现明显的阶段差异,并非所有的就业变动都和被迫搬迁有关。② 性别、年龄、学历等个体社会经济属性,以及搬迁前后的职住空间关系对就业是否发生变动具有显著影响,搬迁时年龄越大、学历越低、女性、搬迁前职住距离较小、搬迁后职住距离较大以及前一年在中心城区工作受访者,就业发生变动的概率越大。③ 家庭搬迁年份较晚,社区周边就业机会增多以及新的地铁线开通,对个体就业变动发生呈现明显诱导作用,即就业岗位及其可达性对就业变动发生具有显著性影响。④ 前一年的职业类型对就业是否发生变动具有显著影响,具体表现为自营职业者比工作单位员工更不可能经历工作变化,意味着自营职业者的就业状态相对稳定;此外,家庭入住年数对受访者就业变动产生了显著影响,即随着时间推移,个体就业发生变动概率在降低,安置居民的就业状态趋向稳定。 相似文献
19.
《The Professional geographer》2013,65(3):344-357
The study focuses on residential mobility propensities of Vietnamese immigrants in the city of Brisbane, Australia, as a principal force contributing to the persistence or change of ethnic residential segregation over time. Using 1990 survey data, discrete-time logit models are estimated to assess the effects of locational, contextual, and personal characteristics on the likelihood of changing residence within the city. The results indicate that locational variables operate in such a way that the most dominant Vietnamese neighborhood in Brisbane increases its prominence even further, while secondary Vietnamese clusters are likely to weaken. The results also indicate that initial settlement conditions are important for the first move only, whereas personal attributes contribute to variations in mobility propensities primarily in the second move. This implies that the composition of the immigrant population potentially influences the speed at which changes in ethnic residential patterns will occur in urban areas. 相似文献
20.
In this study the relationships between vegetation regeneration dynamics to topography and burn severity for a Canadian landscape were investigated using freely available Earth Observation (EO) imagery from Landsat TM sensor. The Okanagan Mountain Park, located in the Montane Cordillera Ecozones of Western Canada at which a fire occurred in 2003, was used as a case study. First, vegetation regeneration dynamics were quantified for a period of 8 years following the fire event based on a chronosequence analysis of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Regeneration Index (RI). The spatio-temporal patterns of post-fire NDVI from each image date were statistically compared to the pre-fire pattern to determine the extent to which the pre-fire spatial pattern was re-established and also the rate of recovery. Subsequently, the relationships of vegetation regrowth to both topography and burn severity was quantified using a series of additional statistical metrics. Burn severity was derived from the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) index computed from the Landsat TM images. Information on topography properties of the region was obtained from the ASTER global operational product.NDVI and RI analysis indicated a moderate vegetation recovery to pre-fire patterns, with regeneration to over 60% of the pre-fire levels 8-years after the fire. Regression analysis of pre- and post-fire mean NDVI exhibited significant re-growth in the first 3 years after the fire with a more gradual return in later years (an increase of 0.400 in R2 by 2006 compared to only an increase of 0.129 for the subsequent 5 years). Re-growth rates appeared to be somewhat higher in north-facing slopes in comparison to south facing ones. As expected, NDVI decline due to fire was positively correlated with burn severity class, whereas negative correlation was found between damage and regeneration ability (recovery after 3 years = low severity 64%/high severity 58%, recovery after 8 years = low severity 72%/high severity 70%). To our knowledge, this study is one of the few attempting to explore the interrelationships of post-fire vegetation regrowth, topography and burn severity, especially in the case of a single large fire. RI based on control plots provides a valuable tool to quantify fire impact and subsequent vegetation regrowth. Furthermore, indication of burn severity is useful for strategically rehabilitating areas of slow or unsuitable post-fire vegetation recovery. This study corroborates the significance of EO technology as a successful and cost-effective solution in providing information related to economic and environmental post-fire regeneration assessment. 相似文献