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1.
《Ocean Modelling》2010,33(3-4):205-215
Efficient identification of parameters in numerical models remains a computationally demanding problem. Here we present an iterative Importance Sampling approach and demonstrate its application to estimating parameters that control the heat uptake efficiency of a physical/biogeochemical ocean model coupled to a simple atmosphere. The algorithm has similarities to a previously-developed ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF) method applied to similar problems, but is more flexible and powerful in the case of nonlinear models and non-Gaussian uncertainties. The method is somewhat more computationally demanding than the EnKF but may be preferred in cases where the approximations that the EnKF relies upon are unsound. Our results suggest that the three-dimensional structure of ocean tracer fields may act as a useful constraint on ocean mixing and consequently the heat uptake of the climate system under anthropogenic forcing. 相似文献
2.
Subduction process is a dynamical bridge for the exchanges of heat between the atmosphere and subsurface ocean water, which is regarded as a central proxy for the ocean climate studies. Given its key indicator in climate signals, it is of importance to examine the ability of a model to simulate the global subduction rate before investigating the climate dynamics. In this paper, we evaluated the ability of 21 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) in simulating t... 相似文献
3.
K. Hasselmann 《Progress in Oceanography》1982,11(2):69-92
Models of the time dependent ocean circulation can be simplified considerably by filtering out all short term, small scale motions which are unimportant for climatic processes. For time scales large compared with a day and space scales large compared with the internal Rossby radius of deformation (～50 km), the currents in most of the interior ocean can be determined diagnostically as quasi-equilibrium fields, so that only the salinity and temperature fields need be treated prognostically.Regions of closed f/h contours, however, represent exceptions. Here trapped vorticity gyres exist as free flow solutions without external forcing, and in the presence of forcing the barotropic velocity field must therefore be determined prognostically through a potential vorticity equation for the gyres.Lateral boundary layers and the equatorial regions also require separate treatment. These were not considered specifically, but it is suggested that integrated (parametrical) models analogous in structure to mixed-layer models or the integrated boundary layer models of aerodynamics may be the most appropriate technique for coupling these regions to the interior ocean in a comprehensive ocean model suitable for climate studies.A coupled multi-region model of the global ocean circulation based on these scale considerations could be sufficiently cost-effective to permit systematic investigation of the role of the oceanic heat storage and transport in climate variability studies over a wide spectrum of space and time scales.The analysis of the seasonal variations of the interior ocean circulation represents a simple example in which the filtered model yields considerably simpler and more readily interpretable results than a fully three-dimensional, unfiltered model. 相似文献
4.
热液系统输向大洋的热通量估算 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5
从四个方面对现代海底热液活动输向大洋的热通量进行了初步估算.热液系统通过集中、高温的热液烟囱和低温、大面积漫溢热水的形式向海洋输送的热通量为357GW;由底热异常边界层计算出的热通量为32GW;根据Baker提出的扩张洋脊的扩张速率和扩张洋脊热液柱覆盖率之间的线性关系,推算的热液通量为1086GW;根据扩张洋脊岩墙冷却和扩张推算的热通量为592GW.不同的方法给出的结果有较大的差异.一方面这些结果反映了热液系统向大洋的供热水平,另一方面反映了目前对现代海底热液活动的认识水平.虽然热液系统向大洋的热输出比太阳的热辐射小,但由于其特殊的供热方式,这部分热能仍有可能对全球气候带来影响,应在今后的研究中给予重视. 相似文献
5.
《Ocean Modelling》2011,39(3-4):171-186
The ocean contributes to regulating the Earth’s climate through its ability to transport heat from the equator to the poles. In this study we use long simulations of an ocean model to investigate whether the heat transport is carried primarily by wind-driven gyres or whether it is dominated by deep circulations associated with abyssal mixing and high latitude convection. The heat transport is computed as a function of temperature classes. In the Pacific and Indian ocean, the bulk of the heat transport is associated with wind-driven gyres confined to the thermocline. In the Atlantic, the thermocline gyres account for only 40% of the total heat transport. The remaining 60% is associated with a circulation reaching down to cold waters below the thermocline. Using a series of sensitivity experiments, we show that this deep heat transport is primarily set by the strength and patterns of surface winds and only secondarily by diabatic processes at high latitudes in the North Atlantic. Abyssal mixing below 2000 m has hardly any impact on ocean heat transport. A major implication is that the role of the ocean in regulating Earth’s climate strongly depends on how surface winds change across different climates in both hemispheres at low and high latitudes. 相似文献
6.
《Ocean Modelling》2003,5(2):157-170
Model results from a regional model (BRIOS) of the Southern Ocean that includes ice shelf cavities and the interaction between ocean and ice shelves are used to derive a simple parameterization for ice shelf melting and the corresponding fresh water flux in large-scale ocean climate models. The parameterization assumes that the heat loss and fresh water gain due to the ice shelves are proportional to the difference in freezing temperature at the ice shelf edge base and the oceanic temperature on the shelf/slope area of the adjacent ocean as well as an effective area of interaction. This area is proportional to the along-shelf width of ice shelf and an effective cross-shelf distance, which turns out to be rather uniform (5–15 km) for a variety of different ice shelves. The proposed parameterization is easy to implement and valid for a wide range of circumstances. An application of the proposed scheme in a global ice ocean model (CLIO) supports our hypothesis that it can be used successfully and improves both the ocean and sea ice component of the model. This parameterization should also be used in models of the climate system that include a coupling between an ice sheet and an oceanic component. 相似文献
7.
K. Yu. Bulgakov 《Oceanology》2012,52(3):309-321
Several schemes of turbulent mixing in the upper ocean are considered, including a modified scheme based on the modified Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. The schemes have been used for the calculation of the evolution of the upper ocean. The results are compared with the data of automated buoys. It is shown that the scheme based on the similarity theory gives a result not worse than the commonly used ones and has several advantages, which makes it the most appropriate for including in the ocean circulation models and climate models. 相似文献
8.
The effect of the wave-induced mixing on the upper ocean temperature in a climate model 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
The significant underestimation of sea surface temperature （SST） and the temperature in the upper ocean is one of common problems in present climate models. The influence of the wave-induced mixing on SST and the temperature in the upper ocean was examined based on a global climate model. The results from the model coupled with wave-induced mixing showed a significant improvement in the simulation of SST and the temperature in the upper ocean compared with those of the original model without wave effects. Although there has still a cold bias, the new simulation is much closer to the climatology, especially in the northern ocean and tropical ocean. This study indicates that some important physical processes in the accurate simulation of the ocean may be ignored in present climate models, and the wave-induced mixing is one of those factors. Thus, the wave-induced mixing （ or the effect of surface waves） should be incorporated properly into climate models in order to simulate or forecast the ocean, then climate system, more accurately. 相似文献
9.
《Ocean Modelling》2001,3(1-2):95-108
Ocean general circulation models usually use an equivalent salt-flux in order to represent the freshwater surface inflow/outflow. This unphysical approach has numerous shortcomings, especially for climate studies. A more physical representation has been originally proposed by R.X. Huang [Journal of Physical Oceanography 23 (1993) 2428–2446] for ocean models. It consists in taking into account the vertical velocity at the sea surface. Here this formulation is introduced in a coupled ice–ocean general circulation model designed for climate studies. The treatment of the ice–ocean exchanges needs special care in order to conserve salt and freshwater masses, and to correctly represent the physics involved. This formulation allows to simulate the Goldsbrough–Stommel circulation and the meridional pathway of the freshwater at the ocean surface. Furthermore, the meridional freshwater transport diagnosed using such an approach is more directly comparable to the atmospheric water-vapor transport. Nevertheless, it produces only small changes in the ocean general circulation. 相似文献
10.
11.
Increased oceanic heat transport has often been cited as a means of maintaining warm high-latitude surface temperatures in many intervals of the geologic past, including the early Eocene. Although the excess amount of oceanic heat transport required by warm high latitude sea surface temperatures can be calculated empirically, determining how additional oceanic heat transport would take place has yet to be accomplished. That the mechanisms of enhanced poleward oceanic heat transport remain undefined in paleoclimate reconstructions is an important point that is often overlooked. Using early Eocene climate as an example, we consider various ways to produce enhanced poleward heat transport and latitudinal energy redistribution of the sign and magnitude required by interpreted early Eocene conditions. Our interpolation of early Eocene paleotemperature data indicate that an approximately 30% increase in poleward heat transport would be required to maintain Eocene high-latitude temperatures. This increased heat transport appears difficult to accomplish by any means of ocean circulation if we use present ocean circulation characteristics to evaluate early Eocene rates. Either oceanic processes were very different from those of the present to produce the early Eocene climate conditions or oceanic heat transport was not the primary cause of that climate. We believe that atmospheric processes, with contributions from other factors, such as clouds, were the most likely primary cause of early Eocene climate. 相似文献
12.
浪致混合对亚热带冬季海洋混合强度的影响 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
上层海洋在全球气候系统中起着至关重要的作用。对上层海洋层结及混合的模拟偏差一直是海洋和气候数值模式发展中悬而未决的问题。本文首先评估了CMIP5中45个模式对上层海洋层结模拟的偏差,确认了冬季亚热带地区海洋模式垂向混合偏强。随后,基于自然资源部第一海洋研究所地球系统模式(FIO-ESM v1.0),分别开展了1986?2005年期间包含和关闭海浪垂向混合情况下的数值实验,分析浪致混合对亚热带冬季海洋混合强度模拟的影响及机制。发现浪致混合使得气候模式中亚热带海域冬季的海洋层结增强,增强的层结使上层海洋更加稳定。首次揭示了增加浪致混合反而降低了海洋总体的垂向混合率:浪致混合使北半球冬季亚热带海域混合率从无浪实验的227 cm2/s降低到有浪实验的178 cm2/s,降低了21.6%;南半球冬季亚热带海域混合率从无浪实验的189 cm2/s降低到有浪实验的165 cm2/s,降低了12.7%。进一步分析发现,浪致混合主要是通过增加冬季亚热带海域上层海洋的热含量从而强化了海洋的层结,最终改善了气候模式对上层海洋混合的模拟。 相似文献
13.
《Ocean Modelling》2000,2(3-4):123-192
This paper presents some research developments in primitive equation ocean models which could impact the ocean component of realistic global coupled climate models aimed at large-scale, low frequency climate simulations and predictions. It is written primarily to an audience of modellers concerned with the ocean component of climate models, although not necessarily experts in the design and implementation of ocean model algorithms. 相似文献
14.
Fast dynamical spin-up of ocean general circulation models using Newton–Krylov methods 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Numerical models of the ocean play an important role in efforts to understand past climate variability and predict future climate changes. In many studies, ocean models are driven by forcings that are either time-independent or vary periodically (seasonally) and it is often highly desirable or even essential to obtain equilibrium solutions of the model. Existing methods, based on the simple, expedient idea of integrating the model until the transients have died out, are too expensive to use routinely because the ocean takes several thousand years to equilibrate. Here, we present a novel approach for efficiently computing equilibrium solutions of ocean models. Our general approach is to formulate the problem as a large system of nonlinear algebraic equations to be solved with a class of methods known as matrix-free Newton–Krylov, a combination of Newton-type methods for superlinearly convergent solution of nonlinear equations, and Krylov subspace methods for solving the Newton correction equations. As an initial demonstration of the feasibility of this approach, we apply it to find the equilibrium solutions of a quasi-geostrophic ocean model for both steady forcing and seasonally-varying forcing. We show that the matrix-free Newton–Krylov method converges to the solutions obtained by direct time integration of the model, but at a computational cost that is between 10 and 100 times smaller than direct integration. A key advantage of our approach is that it can be applied to any existing time-stepping code, including ocean general circulation models and biogeochemical models. However, effective preconditioning of the linear equations to be solved during the Newton iteration remains a challenge. 相似文献
15.
Jochem I. Jongma Emmanuelle Driesschaert Thierry Fichefet Hugues Goosse Hans Renssen 《Ocean Modelling》2009,26(1-2):104-113
Melting icebergs are a mobile source of fresh water as well as a sink of latent heat. In most global climate models, the spatio-temporal redistribution of fresh water and latent heat fluxes related to icebergs is parameterized by an instantaneous more or less arbitrary flux distribution over some parts of the oceans. It is uncertain if such a parameterization provides a realistic representation of the role of icebergs in the coupled climate system. However, icebergs could have a significant climate role, in particular during past abrupt climate change events which have been associated with armada’s of icebergs. We therefore present the interactive coupling of a global climate model to a dynamic thermodynamic iceberg model, leading to a more plausible spatio-temporal redistribution of fresh water and heat fluxes. We show first that our model is able to reproduce a reasonable iceberg distribution in both hemispheres when compared to recent data. Second, in a series of sensitivity experiments we explore cooling and freshening effects of dynamical icebergs on the upper Southern Ocean and we compare these dynamic iceberg results to the effects of an equivalent parameterized iceberg flux.In our model without interactive icebergs, the parameterized fluxes are distributed homogeneously South of 55°S, whereas dynamic icebergs are found to be concentrated closer to shore except for a plume of icebergs floating North–East from the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. Compared to homogeneous fluxes, the dynamic icebergs lead to a 10% greater net production of Antarctic bottom water (AABW). This increased bottom water production involves open ocean convection, which is enhanced by a less efficient stratification of the ocean when comparing to a homogeneous flux distribution.Icebergs facilitate the formation of sea-ice. In the sensitivity experiments, both the fresh water and the cooling flux lead to a significant increase in sea-ice area of 12% and 6%, respectively, directly affecting the highly coupled and interactive air/sea/ice system. The consequences are most pronounced along the sea-ice edge, where this sea-ice facilitation has the greatest potential to affect ocean stratification, for example by heat insulation and wind shielding, which further amplifies the cooling and freshening of the surface waters. 相似文献
16.
Results from twin control simulations of the preindustrial CO2 gas exchange (natural flux of CO2) between the ocean and the atmosphere are presented here using the NASA-GISS climate model, in which the same atmospheric component (modelE2) is coupled to two different ocean models, the Russell ocean model and HYCOM. Both incarnations of the GISS climate model are also coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (NOBM) which estimates prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air–sea flux of CO2. Model intercomparison is carried out at equilibrium conditions and model differences are contrasted with biases from present day climatologies. Although the models agree on the spatial patterns of the air–sea flux of CO2, they disagree on the strength of the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean sinks mainly because of kinematic (winds) and chemistry (pCO2) differences rather than thermodynamic (SST) ones. Biology/chemistry dissimilarities in the models stem from the different parameterizations of advective and diffusive processes, such as overturning, mixing and horizontal tracer advection and to a lesser degree from parameterizations of biogeochemical processes such as gravitational settling and sinking. The global meridional overturning circulation illustrates much of the different behavior of the biological pump in the two models, together with differences in mixed layer depth which are responsible for different SST, DIC and nutrient distributions in the two models and consequently different atmospheric feedbacks (in the wind, net heat and freshwater fluxes into the ocean). 相似文献
17.
全球变暖"停滞"研究综述 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
全球变暖"停滞"现象自提出以来,备受关注,是近来全球气候变化领域的热点问题。全球变暖停滞主要表现为全球平均表面温度在1998-2012年增温速率明显偏低。除此之外,大气环流和海洋环流也发生了显著改变。在归因分析方面,很多科学家认为太平洋年代际振荡发挥了重要作用,另外的可能因素还有大西洋经向翻转环流和南极底层水的改变等。然而,由于观测资料在时间一致性和空间覆盖区域等方面存在偏差,从而为全球变暖停滞增添了诸多不确定性。但气候系统内部变率发生改变,导致深层海洋吸收热量增多是众多科学家的共识。尝试解答变暖停滞研究中的不确定性问题,观测资料的丰富和完善是必要条件。 相似文献
18.
上层海洋对热带气旋的响应与反馈研究进展 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
对60年来有关上层海洋与热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)的响应与反馈的研究进行了回顾,通过观测手段的完善和改进模式的应用,人们的认识不断提高:TC直接激发的近惯性流最大可达1 m/s,其导致的强烈的剪切造成混合层对下层冷水的夹卷是引起混合层降温的主要原因,并往往伴随着混合层深度的增加,这一影响在TC右侧更为最著,并可延续几天到几十天不等。TC导致的混合层降温会使得海洋输出的热通量减少,反过来削弱TC的强度,形成一个负反馈,而海洋特殊的热力和环流结构(如暖涡、洋流等)则对TC有正反馈。所以了解TC经过前的海洋初始场对研究TC与海洋之间的相互作用、对预测,TC的强度、路径变化等尤其重要;通过准确的初始场结合越来越完善的模式可以对TC进行更真实的模拟和预测,使得对TC准确的预报和预警成为可能。 相似文献
19.
随着北半球冰盖的发育,全球气候环境发生了显著变化。太平洋经向翻转流（PMOC）对全球海洋热量分配和大气CO2在深海的封存起举足轻重的作用,但是关于PMOC与北半球冰盖的形成之间的关系还欠缺研究。本文收集了太平洋海山富钴结壳的Nd同位素记录,通过对比不同区域Nd同位素记录的演化特征,分析风尘输入、水团演化等因素对Nd同位素记录的影响,探讨了太平洋经向翻转流演化及其与全球气候变化之间的关系,认为北太平洋深层水下沉的停滞和亚洲风尘输入增加可能是导致深层水Nd同位素从距今3～4 Ma开始降低的原因。同时,因北太平洋深层水下沉停滞,PMOC改组,使得更多的CO2在深水封存,从而对全球气候变冷和北半球冰盖形成产生了积极的贡献。 相似文献
20.
《Marine Policy》2017
Our global oceans are threatened by climate change, overfishing, pollution and a growing list of other impacts that demonstrate an urgent global need for sustainable ocean management. Whilst marine conservation initiatives and protected ocean spaces have increased over recent years, ocean management still lags behind the terrestrial sectors in incorporating and involving communities in its development. ‘Social licence to operate’ is used broadly across the terrestrial literature, but its understanding and application within the marine has been limited to date. This review sought to collate and synthesise instances of social licence in the marine realm as documented in the literature, aiming to create an understanding that may inform future research and development of social licence. Its results determine that social licence is yet an emergent concept in the marine sector but there may be great potential for its application in the marine context. Social licence has become an important theme for development in marine industry and resource use, particularly towards exploring communication and stakeholder engagement. This paper identifies future themes and areas requiring investigation and application in this domain. 相似文献