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1.
青海湖水量平衡分析与水资源优化配置研究 总被引：18，自引：4，他引：14
在充分收集有关资料的基础上研究青海湖1959-2000年间降水径流蒸发湖泊水位地下水补给量的动态变化建立水量平衡分析方程.青海湖水位在波动中持续下降42年来年平均水位累计下降了 3.32 m平均每年下降了0.079 m近年来下降的幅度减小. 同时青海湖储水量不断减少而湖区降水呈增加的趋势河川径流量地下水的入湖补给量 蒸发量呈现下降的趋势. 根据青海湖水平衡分析计算结果预测2010年青海湖流域耗水量将达1.27108m3为维护生态平衡和社会经济持续发展需要跨流域调水量引大济湖4.1108m3. 相似文献
2.
西北干旱区内陆河流域出山径流变化趋势对气候变化响应模型 总被引：50，自引：3，他引：47
将HBV径流模型进行改进 ,使之适合于中国西北干旱区内陆河山区流域的特征及径流形成过程 ,从而建立了用以模拟出山月径流量对气候变化响应的模型 .以河西走廊黑河山区流域为例 ,对不同的年平均气温和年降水量的变化趋势条件下出山径流的响应进行了模拟计算 .结果表明 ,如到 2 0 30年气温升高 0 .5℃ ,降水保持不变 ,5月和 1 0月的径流量将增加 ,这表明积雪融水对河流的补给将增加 ,但 7月和8月由于蒸发量的增加将使径流量有所减少 ,致使年径流量将减少 4% .如降水保持不变 ,气温升高 1℃时 ,除 5 ,6月份径流量有所增加外 ,7,8月份的径流量将减少较多 ,而年径流量将减少 7.1 1 % .若气温保持不变 ,降水量增加 1 0 % ,径流量将增加5 2 7% ;降水量增加 2 0 % ,径流量将增加 1 2 .35 % .当气温升高 0 .5℃ ,降水增加 1 0 %时 ,径流量仅增加 1 .6 2 % . 相似文献
3.
1961-2003年间鄱阳湖流域气候变化趋势及突变分析 总被引：21，自引：2，他引：19
本文利用1961-2003年间鄱阳湖流域14个气象站的气温、降水量、蒸发量等观测数据和8个主要水文站的流量数据,研究该时段内鄱阳湖流域的气候变化趋势、突变及其空间分布的差异．研究表明,鄱阳潮流域气温和降水均在1990年发生突变,继而呈现显著的上升趋势;在季节变化上,冬季平均气温在1986年发生突变,增温显著;夏季降水量和夏季暴雨频率均在1992年发生突变增加,暴雨频率增加是夏季降水量增加的主要原因;蒸发皿蒸发量和参照蒸散量均呈现显著下降趋势,该变化在夏季尤为明显．上述变化趋势均以1990s最为显著,这与长江流域气候变化趋势基本一致．在空间分布上,饶河水系、信江水系和赣江下游等气候变化更为显著．笔者认为,鄱阳湖流域气候变化在长江流域中比较突出．该流域1990s暖湿气候在加强;气温的升高、降水量和暴雨频率的增加以及蒸发量的下降强化了五河流量的增加趋势,由此可大致判定鄱阳湖流域气候变化与洪涝灾害之间可能存在的关系,这可为理解气候变化在该流域的响应和预测该流域未来可能的洪涝灾害提供依据． 相似文献
4.
1990s长江流域降水趋势分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
依据国家气象局提供的实测月降水和日降水资料,运用Mann-Kendall(M-K)非参数检验法验证了降水趋势,并通过空间插补法,由点扩展到面,分析了1990s长江流域降水变化特征,发现1990s长江流域降水变化以降水在时间和空间分布上的集中度的增加为主要特点:时间上,年降水的增加趋势以冬季1月和夏季6月降水的集中增加为主;一日降水量大于等于50mm的暴雨日数和暴雨量在1990s也有了较明显的增加.空间上,年降水、夏季降水、冬季降水的增加都以中下游区的增加为主,尤其以鄱阳湖水系、洞庭湖水系的降水增加为主.1990s长江流域春季和秋季降水的减少以5月和9月两个汛期月份的降水减少为主,除金沙江水系和洞庭湖水系等少数地区外,流域大部分地区降水呈减少趋势.上述1990s出现的降水趋势明显与近年来全球变暖背景下长江流域各地区不同的温度及水循环变异有关. 相似文献
5.
青海湖流域近六百年来的气候变化与湖水位下降原因 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
根据青海湖流域及其邻近地区树木年轮资料重建的历史时期气候资料序列,给出了流域近六百年来的主要冷、暖、干、湿期,并对器测时期的气候变化趋势作了分析。指出,近百年来气候暖干化是造成湖水位下降的主要原因;对于湖水位年际变化与前期降水影响系统、不同气候类型以及地面气象要素的关系作了统计分析。 相似文献
6.
1979～2004年中国大陆南方地区春季降水的年代际变化特征及其与欧亚大陆积雪的联系 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文研究了中国南方春季降水在1979～2004年期间的年代际变化特征,结果表明无论在年际还是在年代际时间尺度上,中国南方东南和西南地区降水都具有反相变化的特征,并分别呈现出显著的减少趋势和增加趋势.中国南方春季降水在20世纪80年代末出现了一次明显的年代际气候转型.东南地区的春季降水明显减少,降水量在80年代末以后比80年代末之前减少了30%;而西南地区的春季降水则明显增加,80年代末之后的降水量是80年代末之前的两倍.伴随着这次年代际转型,欧亚大陆西伯利亚上空对流层中低层位势高度增强,对流层低层中国东部北风增强,造成中国东部西南风减弱,使得降水在东南地区减少,西南地区增多.中国南方春季降水在20世纪80年代末出现的年代际气候转型与欧亚大陆春季积雪的年代际转型有密切联系.从20世纪80年代末开始欧亚大陆春季积雪明显减少,与欧亚大陆春季积雪变化所伴随的大气环流变化,是造成春季我国东南地区降水减少和西南地区降水增多的一个重要原因. 相似文献
7.
利用MM5V3区域气候模式单向嵌套ECHAM5全球环流模式,对中国地区1978-2000年及IPCC A1B情景下2038-2070年气候分别进行了水平分辨率为50 km的模拟试验.文章首先检验了模式模拟的当代极端气候结果,在此基础上对6个极端温度指数和6个极端降水指数的未来变化进行了预估.检验结果表明:MM5V3模式对中国地区当代日最高、最低温度及强降水(大雨和暴雨)日数的空间分布和概率特征均具有一定的模拟能力,但模拟的日最高温度在大部分地区偏低,日最低温度在南方地区偏低、西北地区偏高.概率统计结果显示日最高温度向低值频段偏移,日最低温度在0℃的峰值附近明显偏高.模式对大雨和暴雨年平均日数的模拟在东部地区偏多,概率统计结果则为一致偏大.未来中国地区极端气候预估结果表明:极端高温、极端低温和相对高温在全国范围内都将升高,且线性趋势均为上升;霜日日数则为减少,并具有下降趋势;暖日日数和相对低温在青藏高原和新疆部分地区有所减少、其它地区均为增加,且线性趋势暖日日数为上升,相对低温不明显.极端降水指数的变化具有区域特征,其中单日最大降水、连续五日最大降水、最长无雨期、强降水日数、简单降水强度和极端降水总量均在江淮、华南及西南地区有所增多,而在东北及内蒙古地区有所减少,未来中国南方地区降水的极端化趋势将更加显著.极端降水指数的线性趋势除最长无雨期外其它均为上升. 相似文献
8.
博斯腾湖水盐动态变化(1951-2011年)及对气候变化的响应 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
分析了1951-2011年博斯腾湖历史水位和湖水矿化度的动态变化特征,解析了博斯腾湖水量与水质对气候变化的响应及未来变化趋势.结果表明,博斯腾湖水位在60年内经历了两个突变时期,突变时间分别为1974年和1994年,湖水矿化度也相应地呈现了三个动态变化阶段,水量与水位呈极显著负相关,但水质变化滞后于水位变化1年;流域气温呈显著增加趋势,气温升高的突变时间为1993年,与开都河出山口径流突变时间一致,但降水变化不显著;1993年前,博斯腾湖水量主要受气温和人类活动双重影响,1993年后博斯腾湖水量主要受气温的显著影响,气温主要通过改变入湖水量及湖区蒸发损耗来调控湖泊水位和水质;未来气温持续升高情景下,博斯腾湖水位将面临降低趋势,水质也将有恶化趋势.因此,为合理开发利用博斯腾湖水资源,减少水资源无效损耗,抑制水质恶化趋势,确保流域可持续发展,建议将博斯腾湖调水时间集中在5-9月,并严格控制孔雀河流域工农业用水量及工农业、生活污染源,减少污水排放量,减少周边地下水开发量. 相似文献
9.
喜马拉雅山朗塘流域降水中δ~(18)O的变化 总被引：8，自引：2，他引：8
喜马拉雅山朗塘流域坚景和亚拉降水中δ18O的变化以及δ18O与降水量的关系分析. 在天气尺度下, δ18O随降水量的变化具有较大的离散性. 两者之间的相关系数随时间而变化. 在季节尺度下, 坚景的δ18O/降水量变化率小于天气尺度下的变化率. 在雨季, 由于大气水汽和降水中稳定同位素成分基本保持平衡,降水的蒸发富集作用较轻. 从而降水中平均稳定同位素的大小并不依赖于取样间隔. 降水量效应的模拟结果显示, 朗塘流域的降水并非来自于低纬度海洋水汽的初始凝结. 受水汽在爬越喜马拉雅山时强烈的洗涤作用(rainout), 降水中稳定同位素成分被极大地衰减. 相似文献
10.
长江流域降水径流的年代际变化分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
应用1951-2001年长江流域年、季降水量资料、1885-2001年梅雨量资料以及一百多年以来长江重要控制站宜昌、汉口、大通年径流量资料,对长江流域降水径流的年代际变化、气候转折以及降水径流的变化趋势进行了分析研究.反映出长江流域夏季降水将有更加集中的趋势,即降水时间更集中、强度趋向于更大,对防洪不利.据趋势预测,宜昌、汉口径流量有减少的趋势,大通径流量有增加的趋势. 相似文献
11.
中亚近期气候变化的湖泊响应 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
本世纪以来,气候的暖干化趋势在北半球中纬度地区表现突出,对该地区水资源造成了一系列的影响,基于这一事实,本文主要考察了中亚干旱和半干旱地区内陆湖泊对气候变化的响应。研究表明,气候变化对湖泊影响主要有二种途径,其一是通过热量平衡影响湖泊水量收支中的支出项,即蒸发量;其二是影响湖泊收入项,即降水与地表径流。伊塞克湖以前者为主,青海湖以后者为主。在相同的气候变化背景下,不同湖盆形态的湖泊对此作出的响应不尽相同:湖盆浅平,以面积变化为主;湖盆深凹,则以水位变化为主。 相似文献
12.
TENALEM AYENEW 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):493-503
Abstract The spatial and temporal variations in the level of Lake Abiyata and controlling natural and manmade factors are presented. This study has been made by combining evidence from hydrometeorological and lake level records, water budget analyses, aerial photograph and satellite imagery interpretations, and numerical groundwater flow modelling. The most important components of the water balance of the lake are precipitation, river inflow and evaporation. The lake level has been fluctuating considerably over a wide range (by 6 m during the last 60 years) strongly controlled by the precipitation trends in the adjacent highlands. Climatic changes and consequent reduction in the surface water inputs have resulted in the reduction of its size. Recent abstraction of water for irrigation and soda ash production have drastically changed both the lake level and its hydrochemistry. This change appears to have grave environmental consequences on the fragile rift lacustrine ecosystem. 相似文献
13.
Stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes as indicators of lake water recharge and evaporation in the lakes of the Yinchuan Plain 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2 
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下载免费PDF全文 The Yinchuan Plain has more than 2000 years of history of irrigation by diverting water from the Yellow River. Currently, the amount of water diverted from the Yellow River is about 21.7 times the water formed on the plain as a result of precipitation and inflow of groundwater. Under the intensive influence of irrigation, the plain changed from a desert into a rich and populous area, earning its name as ‘South China Beyond the Great Wall’, with lakes scattered across the Yinchuan Plain just as stars in the sky. In this research, 17 representative lakes were sampled to analyze and study 2H and 18O content; the results showed that lakes on the plain have undergone obvious non‐equilibrium evaporation. Recharges of the lakes can be divided into three types: recharge from the Yellow River, from groundwater and from both of these. The Craig–Gordon non‐equilibrium evaporation model for isotope fractionation was used to estimate the evaporation proportion of each lake. The results showed that evaporation from lakes on Yinchuan Plain is generally extensive under the dry climatic conditions. Most lakes have an evaporation proportion of over 25%, with the largest originating from Shahu lake and Gaomiaohu lake in the northern part of the plain, at 42.5% and 42.8%, respectively. The evaporation proportions calculated on the basis of 18O and 2H are very close to each other. This shows that the method used in this paper is feasible for estimating the evaporation proportions of lakes in areas with a heavy anthropogenic influence. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
R. K. SAXENA 《水文研究》1996,10(10):1273-1281
Lake evaporation has been estimated for a shallow lake using a combination of water and isotope mass balance, accounting for the isotopic non-steady state of lake water. The main feature of the isotope method is that inflows need not be measured. Knowledge of their isotopic content is sufficient. Oxygen-18 content, i.e. (δ18O), of lake water, inflows and outflow was measured on a weekly basis, whereas for precipitation it was monitored daily. The discharge from the lake was also recorded daily. Lake water level, relative humidity, air, and lake water surface temperatures were recorded by a logger. The weather data were recorded on a small island in the lake. It was observed that the lake is isotopically well mixed. Furthermore, the atmospheric moisture was not always in isotopic equilibrium with the precipitation. Daily lake evaporation was estimated as an average of six to eight days depending upon the field logistics. Lake evaporation varied from 0.6 to about 5.4 mm/day during the experimental period. It was found that evaporation estimates are very sensitive to small variations in δ18O of lake evaporate. Induced changes of 10% in δ18O of lake evaporate caused errors in evaporation estimates of 9–31%, while similar induced changes in δ18O of inflows caused errors of 8–18%. Thus, an accurate experimental determination of δ18O of lake evaporate is relatively more important. 相似文献
15.
Potential hydrological impacts of climate change on long‐term water balances were analysed for Harp Lake and its catchment. Harp Lake is located in the boreal ecozone of Ontario, Canada. Two climate change scenarios were used. One was based on extrapolation of long‐term trends of monthly temperature and precipitation from a 129‐year data record, and another was based on a Canadian general circulation model (GCM) predictions. A monthly water balance model was calibrated using 26 years of hydrological and meteorological data, and the model was used to calculate hydrological impact under two climate change scenarios. The first scenario with a warmer and wetter climate predicted a smaller magnitude of change than the second scenario. The first scenario showed an increase in evaporation each month, an increase in catchment runoff in summer, fall and winter, but a decrease in spring, resulting in a slight increase in lake level. Annual runoff and lake level would increase because the precipitation change overrides evaporation change. The second scenario with a warmer, drier climate predicted a greater change, and indicated that evaporation would increase each month, runoff would increase in many months, but would decrease in spring, causing the lake level to decrease slightly. Annual runoff and lake level would decrease because evaporation change overrides precipitation change. In both scenarios, the water balance changes in winter and spring are pronounced. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
全球变化下青藏高原湖泊在地表水循环中的作用 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
青藏高原是地球上最重要的高海拔地区之一,对全球变化具有敏感响应.青藏高原作为"亚洲水塔",其地表水资源及其变化对高原本身及周边地区的经济社会发展具有重要的影响.然而,在气候变暖的情况下,构成高原地表水资源的各个组分,如冰川、湖泊、河流、降水等水体的相变及其转化却鲜为人知.湖泊是青藏高原地表水体相变和水循环的关键环节.湖泊面积、水位和水量对西风和印度季风的降水变化非常敏感,但湖泊面积和水量变化在不同区域和时段的响应也不尽相同.湖泊水温对气候变暖具有明显响应,湖泊水温和水下温跃层深度的变化能够对水—气的热量交换具有明显影响,从而影响了区域蒸发和降水等水循环过程.由于湖泊水量增加,高原中部色林错地区湖泊盐度自1970s以来普遍下降.根据60多个湖泊实地监测建立的遥感反演模型研究发现,2000—2019年湖泊透明度普遍升高.对不同补给类型的大湖水量平衡监测发现,影响湖泊变化的气象和水文要素具有较大差异.在目前的暖湿气候条件下,青藏高原的湖泊将会持续扩张.为了深入认识湖泊变化在青藏高原区域水循环和气候变化中的作用,需要全面了解湖泊水量赋存及连续的时间序列变化,需要深入了解湖泊理化参数变化及对湖泊大气之间热量交换的影响,需要更多来自大湖流域的综合连续观测数据. 相似文献
17.
Stable water isotope ratios are measured as a tracer of environmental processes in materials such as leaves, soils, and lakes. Water in these archives may experience evaporation, which increases the abundance of heavy isotopologues proportionally to the gradients in humidity and isotope ratio between the evaporating water and the surrounding atmosphere. The isotope ratio of the atmosphere has been difficult to measure until recently, and measurements remain scarce. As a result, several assumptions have been adopted to estimate isotope ratios of atmospheric water vapour. Perhaps the most commonly employed assumption in terrestrial environments is that water vapour is in isotopic equilibrium with precipitation. We evaluate this assumption using an eight‐member ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) simulations that include explicit calculation of isotope ratios in precipitation and vapour. We find that across the model ensemble, water vapour is typically less depleted in heavy isotopologues than expected if it were in equilibrium with annual precipitation. Atmospheric vapour likely possesses higher‐than‐expected isotope ratios because precipitation isotope ratios are determined by atmospheric conditions that favour condensation, which do not reflect atmospheric mixing and advection processes outside of precipitation events. The effect of this deviation on theoretical estimates of isotope ratios of evaporating waters scales with relative humidity. As a result, the equilibrium assumption gives relatively accurate estimates of the isotope ratios of evaporating waters in low latitudes but performs increasingly poorly at increasing latitudes. Future studies of evaporative water pools should include measurements of atmospheric isotope ratios or constrain potential bias with isotope‐enabled GCM simulations. 相似文献
18.
Surface water oxygen and hydrogen isotopic values are commonly used as proxies of precipitation isotopic values to track modern hydrologic processes while proxies of water isotopic values preserved in lake and river sediments are used for paleoclimate and paleoaltimetry studies. Previous work has been able to explain variability in USA river‐water and meteoric‐precipitation oxygen isotope variability with geographic variables. These studies show that in the western United States, river‐water isotopic values are depleted relative to precipitation values. In comparison, the controls on lake‐water isotopic values are not well constrained. It has been documented that western United States lake‐water input values, unlike river water, reflect the monthly weighted mean isotopic value of precipitation. To understand the differing controls on lake‐ and river‐water isotopic values in the western United States, we examine the seasonal distribution of precipitation, evaporation and snowmelt across a range of seasonality regimes. We generate new predictive equations based on easily measured factors for western United States lake‐water, which are able to explain 69–63% of the variability in lake‐water hydrogen and oxygen isotopic values. In addition to the geographic factors that can explain river and precipitation values, lake‐water isotopic values need factors related to local hydrologic and climatic characteristics to explain variability. Study results suggest that the spring snowmelt runs off the landscape via rivers and streams, depleting river and stream‐water isotopic values. By contrast, lakes receive seasonal contributions of precipitation in proportion to the seasonal fraction of total annual precipitation within their watershed. Climate change may alter the ratio of snow to rain fall, affecting water resource partitioning between rivers and lakes and by implication of groundwater. Paleolimnological studies must account for the multiple drivers of water isotopic values; likewise, studies based on the isotopic composition of fossil material need to distinguish between species that are associated with rivers versus lakes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
Impact of water transfer on interaction between surface water and groundwater in the lowland area of North China Plain 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 The contradiction between the freshwater shortage and the large demand of freshwater by irrigation was the key point in cultivated lowland area of North China Plain. Water transfer project brings fresh water from water resource‐rich area to water shortage area, which can in turn change the hydrological cycle in this region. Major ions and stable isotopes were used to study the temporal variations of interaction between surface water and groundwater in a hydrological year after a water transfer event in November 2014. Irrigation canal received transferred Yellow River, with 2.9% loss by evaporation during water transfer process. The effect of transferred water on shallow groundwater decreased with increasing distance from the irrigation canal. Pit pond without water transfer receives groundwater discharge. During dry season after water transfer event, shallow groundwater near the irrigation canal was recharged by lateral seepage and deep percolation of irrigation, whereas shallow groundwater far from irrigation canal was recharged by deep percolation of deep groundwater irrigation. Canal water lost by evaporation was 2.7–17.4%. Influence of water transfer gradually disappeared until March as the water usage of agricultural irrigation increased. In the dry season, groundwater discharged to irrigation canal and pond; 2.2–31.6% canal water and 11.3–20.0% pond water were lost by evaporation. In the rainy season (June to September), surface water was fed mainly by precipitation and surface run‐off, whereas groundwater was recharged by infiltration of precipitation. The two‐end member mix model showed that the mixing ratio of precipitation in pond and irrigation canal were 73–83.4% (except one pond with 28.1%) and 77.3–99.9%, respectively. Transferred water and precipitation were the important recharge sources for shallow groundwater, which decreased groundwater salinity in cultivated lowland area of North China Plain. With the temporary and spatial limitation of water transfer effects, increased water transfer amounts and frequency may be an effective way of mitigating regional water shortage. In addition, reducing the evaporation of surface water is also an important way to increase the utilization of transfer water. 相似文献
20.
近40a西藏羊卓雍错湖泊面积变化遥感分析 总被引：11，自引：8，他引：3
羊卓雍错(以下简称羊湖)作为西藏高原三大圣湖之一和藏南重要的高原特色风景旅游景区,其具体面积众说纷纭.本文利用遥感和地理信息空间分析方法对1972-2010年羊湖面积变化进行了系统研究,并结合流域气象站资料对其原因进行初步分析.结果表明,1972-2010年湖泊平均面积为643.98 km2.1972-2010年羊湖面积呈波动式减少趋势,其中,1970s平均面积为658.78 km2,之后至1999年面积显著减少;1980s面积为636.55 km2;1990s为635.06 km2;1999-2004年面积有所增加;2004-2010年持续缩小,减幅为8.59 km2/a.湖泊空间变化特点是除了空母错和珍错两个小湖面积变化较小之外,羊湖整体面积呈现萎缩态势,其中东部嘎马林曲入口附近退缩程度最大,达1.62 km.流域气象站资料分析表明,湖泊面积和降水的变化波动存在显著耦合关系,降水变化是羊湖面积变化的主要原因;其次,流域蒸发量的明显增加,特别是2004年来连续较高的蒸发量是导致近期面积显著减少的重要原因,气温的升高进一步加剧了这一过程.羊湖的面积变化基本反映了西藏高原南部半干早季风气候区以降水补给为主的高原内陆湖泊对气候变化的响应. 相似文献