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1.
As early as in the 1980s, Chinese scientists hadfirst proposed that there exits two summer monsoonsystems in Asia, namely the East Asian summer mon-soon (EASM) and the Indian summer monsoon(ISM)[1-4]. The two monsoon systems are quite dif-ferent in characteristics. Since then, such issue andconclusion had been documented and approved by alot of studies in the past two decades, and was appliedin the guideline of the South China Sea summer mon-soon experiment (SCSMEX), which was undertak…  相似文献   

2.
The Asian-Australian “land bridge” is an area with the most vigorous convection in Asian monsoon region in boreal spring, where the onset and march of convection are well associated with the onset of East Asian summer monsoon. The convection occurs over Indo-China Peninsula as early as mid-April, which exerts critical impact on the evolution of monsoon circulation. Before mid-April there are primarily sensible heatings to the atmosphere over Indo-China Peninsula and Indian Peninsula, so the apparent heating ratios over them decrease with height. However, after mid-April it changes into latent heating over Indo-China Peninsula due to the onset of convection, and the apparent heating ratio increases with height in mid-and lower troposphere. The vertical distribution of heating ratio and its differences between Indo-China Peninsula and Indian Peninsula are the key factors leading to the splitting of boreal subtropical high belt over the Bay of Bengal. Such mechanism is strongly supported by the fact that the evolution of the vertical heating ratio gradient above Indo-China Peninsula leads that of 850 hPa vorticity over the Bay of Bengal. Convections over Indo-China Peninsula and its surrounding areas further increase after the splitting. Since then, there is a positive feedback lying among the convective heating, the eastward retreat of the subtropical high and the march of monsoon, which is a possible mechanism of the advance of summer monsoon and convection from Indo-China Peninsula to South China Sea.  相似文献   

3.
In the present study, an attempt was made to understand the role of South China Sea (SCS) convection associated with northerly cold surges and Typhoon Peipah in initiating Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). The variation of air sea fluxes during the entire history of Cyclone Sidr tracking before its landfall over Bangladesh was also studied. The presence of cold surges in the north SCS associated with heavy rainfall episodes has been noticed at the southern Gulf of Tonkin coast prior to the formation of Typhoon Peipah. Subsequently, these surges migrated south, which resulted in intensification of a deep convection on reaching the Vietnamese coast. During the same period in the western Pacific, Typhoon Peipah developed, propagating in the westward direction and entering the SCS. Analysis of geostationary water vapour images, mean sea level pressure, and surface wind maps clearly depicted the transport of convective cloud clusters, moisture, and westward momentum from Typhoon Peipah to the deep convection cells over the SCS. Consequently, the existing deep convection over the Vietnamese coast resulted in a westward direction and entered the Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea. The availability of higher latent heat fluxes, warmer sea surface temperatures, and suitable atmospheric conditions over this region favoured the formation of a tropical depression in the Andaman Sea. This depression further intensified in the southeast BoB, resulting in the formation of Cyclone Sidr. NCEP/NCAR wind fields and air-sea fluxes revealed left asymmetry surface winds and higher latent heat flux on the left side of the track during the intensification phase of Sidr.  相似文献   

4.
The Asian-Australian "land bridge" is an area with the most vigorous convection in Asian monsoon region in boreal spring, where the onset and march of convection are well associated with the onset of East Asian summer monsoon. The convection occurs over Indo-China Peninsula as early as mid-April, which exerts critical impact on the evolution of monsoon circulation. Before mid-April there are primarily sensible heatings to the atmosphere over Indo-China Peninsula and Indian Peninsula, so the apparent heating ratios over them decrease with height. However, after mid-April it changes into latent heating over Indo-China Peninsula due to the onset of convection, and the apparent heating ratio increases with height in mid- and lower troposphere. The vertical distribution of heating ratio and its differences between Indo-China Peninsula and Indian Peninsula are the key factors leading to the splitting of boreal subtropical high belt over the Bay of Bengal. Such mechanism is strongly supported by the fact that the evolution of the vertical heating ratio gradient above Indo-China Peninsula leads that of 850 hPa vorticity over the Bay of Bengal. Convections over Indo-China Peninsula and its surrounding areas further increase after the splitting. Since then, there is a positive feedback lying among the convective heating, the eastward retreat of the subtropical high and the march of monsoon, which is a possible mechanism of the advance of summer monsoon and convection from Indo-China Peninsula to South China Sea.  相似文献   

5.
Orissa State, a meteorological subdivision of India, lies on the east coast of India close to north Bay of Bengal and to the south of the normal position of the monsoon trough. The monsoon disturbances such as depressions and cyclonic storms mostly develop to the north of 15° N over the Bay of Bengal and move along the monsoon trough. As Orissa lies in the southwest sector of such disturbances, it experiences very heavy rainfall due to the interaction of these systems with mesoscale convection sometimes leading to flood. The orography due to the Eastern Ghat and other hill peaks in Orissa and environs play a significant role in this interaction. The objective of this study is to develop an objective statistical model to predict the occurrence and quantity of precipitation during the next 24 hours over specific locations of Orissa, due to monsoon disturbances over north Bay and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal based on observations to up 0300 UTC of the day. A probability of precipitation (PoP) model has been developed by applying forward stepwise regression with available surface and upper air meteorological parameters observed in and around Orissa in association with monsoon disturbances during the summer monsoon season (June-September). The PoP forecast has been converted into the deterministic occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation forecast using the critical value of PoP. The parameters selected through stepwise regression have been considered to develop quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) model using multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) for categorical prediction of precipitation in different ranges such as 0.1–10, 11–25, 26–50, 51–100 and >100 mm if the occurrence of precipitation is predicted by PoP model. All the above models have been developed based on data of summer monsoon seasons of 1980–1994, and data during 1995–1998 have been used for testing the skill of the models. Considering six representative stations for six homogeneous regions in Orissa, the PoP model performs very well with percentages of correct forecast for occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation being about 96% and 88%, respectively for developmental and independent data. The skill of the QPF model, though relatively less, is reasonable for lower ranges of precipitation. The skill of the model is limited for higher ranges of precipitation. accepted September 2006  相似文献   

6.
A continuing goal in the diagnostic studies of the atmospheric general circulation is to estimate various quantities that cannot be directly observed. Evaluation of all the dynamical terms in the budget equations for kinetic energy, vorticity, heat and moisture provide estimates of kinetic energy and vorticity generation, diabatic heating and source/sinks of moisture. All these are important forcing factors to the climate system. In this paper, diagnostic aspects of the dynamics and energetics of the Asian summer monsoon and its spatial variability in terms of contrasting features of surplus and deficient summer monsoon seasons over India are studied with reanalysis data sets. The daily reanalysis data sets from the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) are used for a fifty-two year (1948–1999) period to investigate the large-scale budget of kinetic energy, vorticity, heat and moisture. The primary objectives of the study are to comprehend the climate diagnostics of the Asian summer monsoon and the role of equatorial convection of the summer monsoon activity over India.It is observed that the entrance/exit regions of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) are characterized by the production/destruction of the kinetic energy, which is essential to maintain outflow/inflow prevailing at the respective location of the TEJ. Both zonal and meridional components contribute to the production of kinetic energy over the monsoon domain, though the significant contribution to the adiabatic generation of kinetic energy originates from the meridional component over the Bay of Bengal in the upper level and over the Somali Coast in the low level. The results indicate that the entire Indian peninsula including the Bay of Bengal is quite unstable during the summer monsoon associated with the production of vorticity within the domain itself and maintain the circulation. The summer monsoon evinces strong convergence of heat and moisture over the monsoon domain. Also, considerable heat energy is generated through the action of the adiabatic process. The combined effect of these processes leads to the formation of a strong diabatic heat source in the region to maintain the monsoon circulation. The interesting aspect noted in this study is that the large-scale budgets of heat and moisture indicate excess magnitudes over the Arabian Sea and the western equatorial Indian Ocean during surplus monsoon. On the other hand, the east equatorial Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal region show stronger activity during deficient monsoon. This is reflected in various budget terms considered in this study.  相似文献   

7.
Physical oceanography measurements reveal a strong salinity (0.18 psu km?1) and temperature (0.07 °C km?1) front off the east coast of India in December 1997. T–S diagrams suggest lateral mixing between the fresh water at the coast and the ambient warmer, saltier water. This front seems to be the result of southward advection of fresh and cool water, formed in the northern Bay of Bengal during the monsoon, by the East Indian Coastal Current, as suggested by the large-scale salinity structure in the SODA re-analysis and the anti-cyclonic gyre in the northwestern Bay of Bengal during winter. The data further reveals an offshore front in January, which appears to be the result of a meso-scale re-circulation around an eddy, bringing cold and freshwater from the northern Bay of Bengal further away from the shore. Our cruise data hence illustrates that very strong salinity fronts can appear in the Bay of Bengal after the monsoon, as a result of intense coastal circulation and stirring by eddies.  相似文献   

8.
—?In this paper, we examine the large-scale balances of kinetic energy, vorticity, angular momentum, heat and moisture over the Asian summer monsoon region. The five year (1986–1990) uninitialized daily analyses for the summer season comprising June, July and August (JJA), produced at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) under the aegis of Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) have been considered to carry out the study.¶The following features characterize the Asian summer monsoon domain. It acts as the source of kinetic energy as well as vorticity, and sink of heat and moisture. Kinetic energy and vorticity are produced in the monsoon region and transported horizontally. On the contrary, heat and moisture are transported into the monsoon region. The zonal and meridional components of adiabatic generation of kinetic energy contribute to the production of kinetic energy over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, respectively. The horizontal advection of relative vorticity is balanced by sub-grid scale generation. The angular momentum generated due to pressure torque (east-west pressure gradient) is balanced by the flux convergence of omega momentum. Further, the angular momentum budget delineates that flux convergence of relative momentum is necessary to maintain the surface westerlies against the friction. The horizontal convergence of heat and moisture facilitates enhancement of diabatic heating, and also leads to the formation of diabatic heat sources, which are crucial to sustain the summer monsoon circulation.  相似文献   

9.

Physical oceanography measurements reveal a strong salinity (0.18 psu km−1) and temperature (0.07 °C km−1) front off the east coast of India in December 1997. T–S diagrams suggest lateral mixing between the fresh water at the coast and the ambient warmer, saltier water. This front seems to be the result of southward advection of fresh and cool water, formed in the northern Bay of Bengal during the monsoon, by the East Indian Coastal Current, as suggested by the large-scale salinity structure in the SODA re-analysis and the anti-cyclonic gyre in the northwestern Bay of Bengal during winter. The data further reveals an offshore front in January, which appears to be the result of a meso-scale re-circulation around an eddy, bringing cold and freshwater from the northern Bay of Bengal further away from the shore. Our cruise data hence illustrates that very strong salinity fronts can appear in the Bay of Bengal after the monsoon, as a result of intense coastal circulation and stirring by eddies.

  相似文献   

10.
Orographic effects on the southwest monsoon: A review   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
An overview of the problem of orographic effects on the southwest monsoon using the contributions of all the available analytical and numerical models is attempted. A quasi-geostrophic model is applied to deduce the effect of the topographic complex on the Indian peninsula. This model suggests that the southward bending of the low-level isobars on the peninsula can be ascribed to the topographically-induced southward velocity. This southward velocity triggers a Rossby wave to the east of the peninsula which is manifested as a trough on the southern Bay of Bengal.  相似文献   

11.
The present study is an attempt to examine the variability of convective activity over the north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) on interannual and longer time scale and its association with the rainfall activity over the four different homogeneous regions of India (viz., northeast India, northwest India, central India and south peninsular India) during the monsoon season from June to September (JJAS) for the 26 year period (1979 to 2004). The monthly mean Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) data obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) polar orbiting spacecraft are used in this study and the 26-year period has been divided into two periods of 13 years each with period-i from 1979 to 1991 and period -ii from 1992 to 2004. It is ascertained that the convective activity increases over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in the recent period (period -ii; 1992 to 2004) compared to that of the former period (period -i; 1979 to 1991) during JJAS and is associated with a significantly increasing trend (at 95% level) of convective activity over the north Bay of Bengal (NBAY). On a monthly scale, July and August also show increase in convective activity over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal during the recent period and this is associated with slight changes in the monsoon activity cycle over India. The increase in convective activity particularly over the Arabian Sea during the recent period of June is basically associated with about three days early onset of the monsoon over Delhi and relatively faster progress of the monsoon northward from the southern tip of India. Over the homogeneous regions of India the correlation coefficient (CC) of OLR anomalies over the south Arabian Sea (SARA) is highly significant with the rainfall over central India, south peninsular India and northwest India, and for the north Arabian Sea (NARA), it is significant with northwest India rainfall and south peninsular rainfall. Similarly, the OLR anomalies over the south Bay of Bengal (SBAY) have significant CC with northwest India and south peninsular rainfall, whereas the most active convective region of the NBAY is not significantly correlated with rainfall over India. It is also found that the region over northeastern parts of India and its surroundings has a negative correlation with the OLR anomalies over the NARA and is associated with an anomalous sinking (rising) motion over the northeastern parts of India during the years of increase (decrease) of convective activity over the NARA.  相似文献   

12.
Geostrophic balance over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal regions has been studied using the wind data obtained from the AVRO (HS-748) aircraft during the FGGE-MONEX-79.In the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal regions, the observed wind south of 20°N was found to be sub-geostrophic. In the Arabian Sea region the departure at 1500 m was 75–95% and at 3050 m it was 60–65%. In the Bay of Bengal region the departure was 85–95%. In a few cases north of 20°N the observed winds at 3050 m were found to be super-geostrophic in the regions of enhanced monsoon activity, cyclonic circulation reaching up to 6000 m and in the region of monsoon trough.  相似文献   

13.
Based on the observational data in summer, the variations of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of the daily rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (LYRV) were studied by using the non-integer spectrum analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1979–2005 were analyzed by principal oscillation pattern analysis (POP) to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of principal ISO patterns of the global circulation. The relationships of these ISO patterns to the rainfall ISO and the heavy precipitation process over LYRV were also discussed. It is found that the rainfall over LYRV in May–August is mainly of periodic oscillations of 10–20, 20–30 and 60–70 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 20–30-day oscillation has a strongly positive correlation with the number of the heavy precipitation process. Two modes (POP1, POP2) are revealed by POP for the 20–30-day oscillation of the global 850 hPa geopotential height. One is a circumglobal teleconnection wave train in the middle latitude of the Southern Hemisphere (SCGT) with an eastward propagation, and the other is the southward propagation pattern in the tropical western Pacific (TWP). The POP modes explain 7.72% and 7.66% of the variance, respectively. These two principal ISO patterns are closely linked to the low frequency rainfall and heavy precipitation process over LYRV, in which the probability for the heavy precipitation process over LYRV is 54.9% and 60.4% for the positive phase of the imaginary part of POP1 and real part of POP2, respectively. Furthermore, the models of the global atmospheric circulation for the 20–30-day oscillation in association with or without the heavy precipitation process over LYRV during the Northern Hemisphere summer are set up by means of the composite analysis method. Most of the heavy precipitation processes over LYRV appear in Phase 4 of SCGT or Phase 6 of TWP. When the positive phases of 20–30-day oscillations for the rainfall over LYRV are associated with (without) the heavy precipitation process, a strong westerly stream appears (disappears) from the Arabian Sea via India and Bay of Bengal (BOB) to southern China and LYRV for the global 850 hPa filtered wind field during Phase 4 of SCGT. This situation is favorable (unfavorable) for the forming of the heavy precipitation process over LYRV. Similarly, a strong (weak) western wind belt forms from India through BOB to southern China and LYRV and the subtropical northwestern Pacific and central and eastern equatorial Pacific during Phase 6 of TWP for the cases with (without) the heavy precipitation process. The evolutions of these ISO patterns related to the 20–30-day oscillation are excited by either the interaction of extratropical circulation in both hemispheres or the heat source forcing in Asia monsoon domain and internal interaction of circulation in East Asia. These two global circulation models might therefore provide valuable information for the extended-range forecastof the heavy precipitation process over LYRV during the 10–30 days.  相似文献   

14.
Summary Monsoon depression is one of the most important synoptic scale disturbances on the quasi-stationary planetary scale monsoon trough over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season (June to September). Salient features of the climatology of the depressions with regard to frequency of cyclogenesis, life expectancy, horizontal scale and tracks are discussed. Rainfall aspects of the depressions are discussed in some detail and the role of local, dynamical and sub-synoptic scale factors are brought out. Work done on the life history such as formation, intensification and maintenance of depressions has been reviewed based on synoptical and theoretical approaches. Structure of the depression based on composited, synoptical and dynamical studies is discussed. Wind circulation, thermal and moisture patterns, vertical motion field, vorticity budget etc., of a recent case study are brought out in some detail. The problem of movement of the depression against the low level basic westerly wind is briefly discussed and the results of several numerical and climatological prediction models are presented.  相似文献   

15.
During the summer monsoon season over India a range of intraseasonal modulations of the monsoon rains occur due to genesis of weather disturbances over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and the east Arabian Sea. The amplitudes of the fluctuations in the surface state of the ocean (sea-surface temperature and salinity) and atmosphere are quite large due to these monsoonal modulations on the intraseasonal scale as shown by the data collected during the field programs under Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX) and Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiments (ARMEX). The focus of BOBMEX was to understand the role of ocean-atmospheric processes in organizing convection over the BOB on intra-seasonal scale. ARMEX-I was aimed at understanding the coupled processes in the development of deep convection off the West Coast of India. ARMEX-II was focused on the formation of the mini-warm pool across the southeast Arabian Sea in April-May and its role in the abrupt onset of the monsoon along the Southwest Coast of India and its further progress along the West Coast of India. The paper attempts to integrate the results of the observational studies and brings out an important finding that atmospheric instability is prominently responsible for convective organization whereas the upper ocean parameters regulate the episodes of the intraseasonal oscillations.  相似文献   

16.
本文利用资料分析和数值模拟方法研究了欧亚地区夏季大气环流的相关性及其与亚洲夏季风的关联信号,以期为欧亚地区的气候变异及可预测性研究提供科学依据.结果表明:欧亚区域同期(JJA)500 hPa高度场年际变化的关键区包括热带区、中纬度的贝加尔湖和巴尔喀什湖之间以及欧洲地中海附近地区;表面气温的关键区主要位于热带海洋;海平面气压的关键区包括热带的海洋性大陆区域、印度洋和非洲大陆赤道附近部分区域、中高纬的贝加尔湖与巴尔喀什湖之间的地区.另外,夏季大气环流年际变化的春季关键区明显西移/南退,特别是表面气温(其西太平洋区不再是关键区).公用气候系统模式CCSM4.0的大气模式在给定海温年际变化的情况下对于上述大气环流相关场及其关键区的模拟基本合理,其中500 hPa高度场的模拟结果较好,海平面气压场的结果逊之;对于同期和前期的结果,模式都有夸大西太平洋海温影响的倾向.对于东亚夏季风指数与大气环流的同期年际变化信号而言,其空间分布基本表现为以30°N为界呈西南东北向的波列状分布;其春季前期信号中,30°N以南的显著区几乎都位于海洋,30°N以北主要位于欧洲、巴尔喀什湖与贝加尔湖之间的地区.南亚夏季风指数的前期显著相关区比同期明显西移/南退.总之,模式的模拟结果和观测结果相当吻合,但其同期模拟结果比前期的更好一些.这些结果说明:模式对于大气环流年际变化的耦合变化信息的刻画是基本合理的,这为利用气候模式进行有关可预测性研究和降尺度预测研究奠定了基础.  相似文献   

17.
— The work deals with the computation and analysis of spectral energetics in the frequency domain at 850?hPa and 200?hPa over the tropics (20°S–20°N) and extratropics (20°N–60°N). The data for the winter months, i.e., November, December and January of 1995, 1996 and 1997 are selected for this purpose. The results suggest that much of the low frequency variability of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime general circulation is associated with disturbances which derive their energy from the time-mean flow through barotropic instability. Low frequency fluctuations tend to be larger in horizontal scale and their kinetic energy is largely confined to the upper troposphere. At 850?hPa, strong energy interaction south of 5°N is noticed due to a southward shift of major inflow channel, originating from the Bay of Bengal and entering the ITCZ from the western Arabian Sea. The energy balances in the tropics and the extratropics during winter have different characteristics from those during summer. In contrast to the summer circulation, instead of a downscale decascade as in the case of the extratropics, kinetic energy is transferred in an opposite sense, namely from transients of shorter to those of longer time scales in the tropics during winter. The strong nonlinear energy interactions associated with low frequency waves over the Indian Ocean (5°N–5°S) during winter is the manifestation of the deep convection due to warm water coupled with the crossequatorial low level flow along the ITCZ over this region. Forcing from this region readily excites a large response in terms of nonlinear energy interaction over the extratropical northeast Pacific.  相似文献   

18.
通过一系列的理想数值试验,研究了亚、非地区热带次尺度的海陆分布和青藏高原大地形在亚洲夏季风形成中的作用.试验结果显示:海陆分布的存在以及海陆分布的几何形状对亚洲夏季风的形成有非常重要的影响.下垫面全是海洋,没有陆地时,无季风现象的存在.当仅有副热带大尺度陆地,而缺乏南亚次尺度陆地和非洲大陆热带陆地时,夏季无明显的越赤道气流,仅在欧亚副热带陆地的东南部有弱的季风,无印度、孟加拉湾和南海夏季风.中南半岛、印度半岛和非洲大陆热带陆地的存在,在夏季引导南半球的东南信风越赤道转向为西南气流,使得南海的北部、中南半岛、孟加拉湾和印度半岛、阿拉伯海上空的低层为强西南气流控制,印度、孟加拉湾和南海夏季风产生.副热带陆地向热带的深入对副热带陆上产生夏季强对流性降水起着至关重要的作用.青藏高原的存在加强了高原东侧的季风,使得季风区向北发展,青藏高原对东亚季风起放大器的作用;减弱了高原西侧的季风,使得季风区向南收缩.  相似文献   

19.
Barotropic-Baroclinic instability of horizontally and vertically shearing mean monsoon flow during July is investigated numerically by using a 10-layer quasi-geostrophic model. The most unstable mode has a wavelength of about 3000 km and westward phase speed of about 15 m sec–1. The most dominant energy conversion is from zonal kinetic energy to eddy kinetic energy. The structure of the most unstable mode is such that the maximum amplitude is concentrated at about 150 mb and the amplitude at the lowest layers is negligibly small. Barotropic instability of the zonal flow at 150 mb seems to be the primary excitation mechanism for the most unstable mode which is also similar to the observed westward propagating waves in the upper troposphere during the monsoon season. The results further suggest that Barotropic-Baroclinic instability of the mean monsoon flow cannot explain the occurrence of monsoon depressions which have their maximum amplitude at the lower levels and are rarely detected at 200 mb.  相似文献   

20.
Physical and dynamical oceanography of Liverpool Bay   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
The UK National Oceanography Centre has maintained an observatory in Liverpool Bay since August 2002. Over 8 years of observational measurements are used in conjunction with regional ocean modelling data to describe the physical and dynamical oceanography of Liverpool Bay and to validate the regional model, POLCOMS. Tidal dynamics and plume buoyancy govern the fate of the fresh water as it enters the sea, as well as the fate of its sediment, contaminants and nutrient loads. In this context, an overview and summary of Liverpool Bay tidal dynamics are presented. Freshwater forcing statistics are presented showing that on average the bay receives 233 m3 s − 1. Though the region is salinity controlled, river input temperature is shown to significantly modulate the plume buoyancy with a seasonal cycle. Stratification strongly influences the region’s dynamics. Data from long-term moored instrumentation are used to analyse the stratification statistics that are representative of the region. It is shown that for 65% of tidal cycles, the region alternates between being vertically mixed and stratified. Plume dynamics are diagnosed from the model and are presented for the region. The spring–neap modulation of the plume’s westward extent, between 3.5 °W and 4°W, is highlighted. The rapid eastward erosion of the plume during spring tides is identified as a potentially important freshwater mixing mechanism. Novel climatological maps of temperature, salinity and density from the CTD surveys are presented and used to validate numerical simulations. The model is found to be sensitive to the freshwater forcing rates, temperature and salinities. The existing CTD survey grid is shown to not extend sufficiently near the coast to capture the near coastal and vertically mixed component the plume. Instead the survey grid captures the westward spreading, shallow and transient, portion of the plume. This transient plume feature is shown in both the long-term averaged model and observational data as a band of stratified fluid stretching between the mouth of the Mersey towards the Isle of Man. Finally the residual circulation is discussed. Long-term moored ADCP data are favourably compared with model data, showing the general northward flow of surface water and southward trajectory of bottom water.  相似文献   

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