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自《西北地震学报》2 0 0 1年第 4期发表了笔者的文章《2 0 0 1年厄尔尼诺事件的天文条件》以来[1] ,全球气候异常越来越显著 .近期研究发现 ,近地潮与日月大潮的叠加有 6～ 8个月的准周期变化 ,厄尔尼诺事件发生时间与强潮汐时段有很好的对应关系 .1991年 5月～ 1992年 8月 ,1993年 4月～ 1994年 1月 ,1994年 10月～1995年 6月 ,1997年 4月～ 1998年 6月 ,厄尔尼诺事件发生时间都在近地潮与日月大潮叠加的强潮汐时段 (见表 1) .表 1 1991年 3月～ 1997年 5月的厄尔尼诺天文条件近地点时间日期时间农历日 日食月食潮汐强度极端气候变化199… 相似文献
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根据前人和作者最新深部地球物理探测研究成果，完成了中国东部大陆（１０５°Ｅ以东）１°×１°壳－幔结构比值Ｒ（Ｒ＝Ｃ／Ｌ，Ｃ为地壳厚度，Ｌ为岩石层厚度）分布图的编绘．研究了Ｒ值分布与东部大陆岩石层分块、大地构造形态特征；Ｒ值分布与东部大陆地震活动的非均匀性特征；Ｒ值分布的动力学内涵．结果表明：１．Ｒ值等值线特征反映了岩石层块体划分、大地构造形态，Ｒ值特征与岩石层块体划分、大地构造形态有其深部成因上的联系；２．高Ｒ值区对应地震高活动区，因而Ｒ值可作为地震区划、地震危险性评定的定量指标，Ｒ值是地震活动的动力因子． 相似文献
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阐述了小震活动增强图像的物理基础,资料分析处理方法和地震活动水平等级划分标准、预报判据及回顾性检验结果。还介绍了１９９６年新疆阿图什６．７级和喀喇昆仑７．１级２次强震的中期预报过程。震例分析表明;多数目标地震发生前１－２年内出现区域小震活动增强异常图像,若取异常结束后１２个月作为预报时段,则异常对频率为０．３５,有震报准率为０．７０,通过Ｒ值检验,中期预报效果较好。 相似文献
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鉴于当前国际上关于自转微椭、非均匀地球（ＳＲＥＨＩ）的固体潮汐响应的结果之间存在明显分歧，特别是Ｌｏｖｅ数ｋ及重力潮汐因子δ对纬度的依赖情况截然不同，本文借助于摄动法与张量正则分量的广义球谐展开建立起来的侧向非均匀、自转微椭、粘弹地球的潮汐模拟理论，计算了ＳＲＥＨＩ地球的潮汐形变及相应的引力位变化．结果表明，描述径向位移的Ｌｏｖｅ数的纬度依赖部分系数ｈ＿＋与球对称部分ｈ＿０＋δｈ＿０之比不大于１．０‰；对Ｏ＿１波为０．２７‰；对Ｍ＿２波为０．１９‰；对Ｍ＿３波为０．４９‰；对Ｍ＿４波为０．８８‰．描述地球引力位变化的Ｌｏｖｅ数的纬度依赖部分系数ｋ＿＋与球对称部分ｋ＿０＋δｋ＿０之比小于３．０‰；对Ｏ＿１波为２．６７‰；对Ｍ＿２波为１．８９‰；对Ｍ＿３波为２．２４‰；对Ｍ＿４波为２．７０‰． 相似文献
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厄尔尼诺事件的随机特征 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
厄尔尼诺事件与强潮汐、日食、月食、火山、地震以及洋流冷暖循环相关．统计资料表明，厄尔尼诺事件的发生具有明显的随机特征，当各因素的最大值相互叠加时，就会发生强厄尔尼诺事件．厄尔尼诺与火山地震活动密切相关，具有区域性强，能量变化大，活动频繁，有规律但无严格周期等特点．厄尔尼诺事件是多种因素形成的。因而更具有随机特征． 相似文献
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We use conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)to investigate the optimal precursory disturbances in the ZebiakCane El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)model.The conditions of the CNOP-type precursors are highly likely to evolve into El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model.By exploring the dynamic behaviors of these nonlinear El Nino events caused by the CNOP-type precursors,we find that they,as expected,tend to phase-lock to the annual cycles in the Zebiak-Cane model,with the SSTA peak at the end of a calendar year.However,El Nino events with CNOPs as initial anomalies in the linearized Zebiak-Cane model are inclined to phase-lock earlier than nonlinear El Nino events despite the existence of annual cycles in the model.It is clear that nonlinearities play an important role in El Nino’s phase-locking.In particular,nonlinear temperature advection increases anomalous zonal SST differences and anomalous westerlies,which weakens anomalous upwelling and acts on the increasing anomalous vertical temperature difference and,as a result,enhances El Nino and then delays the peak SSTA.Finally,we demonstrate that nonlinear temperature advection,together with the effect of the annual cycle,causes El Nino events to peak at the end of the calendar year. 相似文献
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Indian summer monsoon and El Nino 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The associations between strong to moderate El Nino events and the all-India and subdivisional summer monsoon rainfall is
examined for the period 1871 to 1978. The significance of the association is assessed by applying the Chi-square test to the
contingency table.
The analysis indicates that during 22 El Nino years the Indian monsoon rainfall was mostly below normal over most parts of
the country. However, the association between El Nino and deficient rainfall or drought is statistically significant over
the subdivisions west of longitude 80°E and north of 12°N. During the five strong El Nino years—1877, 1899, 1911, 1918, and
1972—many areas of India suffered large rainfall deficiencies and severe droughts. There are four moderate El Nino years—1887,
1914, 1953, and 1976—when the suffering was marginal.
The relationship between El Nino and the Indian monsoon rainfall is expected to be useful in forecasting large-scale anomalies
in the monsoon over India. 相似文献
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给定1948～1999年逐月变化的全球观测的海表温度分布，使用全球大气环流模式（CCM3/NCAR）模拟了大气对海表温度变化的响应，利用SVD和合成检验方法，分析了El Nino发展阶段夏季、成熟阶段冬季以及衰亡阶段夏季东亚大气环流的年际异常型.结果表明：El Nino发展阶段夏季，中国东北、朝鲜半岛以及日本海附近为高度负异常中心，西太平洋副高偏弱、偏东，东亚夏季风增强；El Nino成熟阶段冬季，东亚大槽加强，东亚北部冬季风加强；El Nino衰亡阶段夏季，西太平洋副高偏强、偏南、西伸，东亚夏季风减弱；El Nino事件在其衰亡阶段夏季与东亚大气环流异常的关系最紧密，其次是成熟阶段冬季，最后是发展阶段夏季.模拟的El Nino演变不同阶段东亚大气环流年际异常型易于解释以往研究中观测分析揭示的由El Nino造成的我国东部气温和降水异常型. 相似文献
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厄尔尼诺事件的成因链 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
提出了厄尔尼诺事件成因链的概念．指出影响厄尔尼诺事件的物理因子都是层层相接、环环相扣的,它们组成了一个互相联系、互为因果的厄尔尼诺事件成因链．成因链上物理因子之间的反馈作用和消长作用,导致成因链上的各种成因理论都不能完全地自圆其说,因而也无法完全确定地用于厄尔尼诺事件预测．只有深入探讨反馈作用和消长作用,并综合分析物理因子的贡献率,才能提高厄尔尼诺事件预测的准确率．这为解决厄尔尼诺事件的成因问题提供了一种新的思路。 相似文献
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基于NCEP/NCAR提供的1958～1995年全球月平均海温距平场再分析资料,采用动力系统反演思想和遗传算法途径,进行了El Nino/La Nina指数的动力预报模型的参数优化和模型反演,从上述海温资料中重构了Nino3海温距平指数的非线性动力模型.模型预报试验结果表明,遗传算法具有的全局搜索和并行计算优势能够客观、有效地反演海温指数的动力预报模型,对Nino3海温指数和El Nino/La Nina事件进行较为客观准确的预测,为El Nino/La Nina预测提供有益的研究参考. 相似文献
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Possible effect of ENSO on annual sediment discharge of debris flows in the Jiangjia Ravine based on Morlet wavelet transforms 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The multi-time-scale structures of an annual sediment discharge series of debris flow in the Jiangjia Ravine and the Southern Oscillation index are analysed using the method of Morlet wavelet transformations. The possible effects of E1 Nirio episodes on the annual sediment discharge are discussed by comparing the period variations of ENSO and the discharge. The results show that the annual sediment discharge series of debris flow is related to E1 Nifio episodes. Generally, the annual sediment discharge of debris flow is less than usual during an E1 Nifio episode and debris flow is less active. On the contrary, the annual sediment discharge of debris flows is greater than usual during a La Nifia episode and debris flows are more frequent. There is a relationship between the annual sediment discharges of debris flow in the Jiangjia Ravine and the summer Southern Oscillation index, with both having quasi-periodic variations of 2 and 5-6 years. 相似文献
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A five year Environmental Monitoring Programme (EMP) was set up in east-Australian coastal waters to determine the environmental effects of diverting most of Sydney's primary treated sewage from cliff face outfalls to diffuser outfall systems some 3 km offshore in 60–80 m of water. Many component EMP studies adopted Before and After Control Impact (BACI and ‘beyond BACI’) designs, to isolate outfall impacts on the marine ecosystem from background variability. Although seasonal patterns dominated ambient conditions in coastal waters, long-term climatic signals, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), were apparent during the EMP. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) indicated the two year post-commissioning study period of 1991–1993 was dominated by an El Nino episode, while the 1989–1990 pre-commissioning period experienced a La Nina episode. Anomalous rainfall conditions and ocean temperature structure were associated with these episodes with respect to long-term records. Rainfall patterns suggested that the pre-commissioning period experienced high rainfall causing an increased incidence of stormwater pollution in coastal waters. Effects of the lower rain levels during post-commissioning phase were, however, outweighed by the dramatic improvements due to the commissioning of the deepwater outfalls. Decreased thermal stratification was experienced during the winter months of the 1992–1993 El Nino episode, and promoted increased dilutions associated with a greater frequency in sewage plume surfacing. There was, however, no apparent short-term effect of this change in plume behaviour on the marine environment as measured by EMP indicators. 相似文献
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