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1.
Debris flows belong to sudden disasters which are difficult to forecast. Thus, a detailed and coherent hazard assessment seems a necessary step to prevent or relieve such disasters and mitigate the risk effectively. Previous researchers have proposed several methods, such as regression analysis, fuzzy mathematics, and artificial neural networks for debris-flow hazard assessment. However, these methods need further improvements to eliminate the high relativity existing in their results. The current study reported a similarity-based debris-flow hazard assessment model to determine hazard levels of debris flow in regions, with steps like determining hazard-level-type regions, selecting environmental factors and calculating the similarities between the assessment-pending regions and assessed hazard-level-type ones. This methodology was then employed to assess the regional debris hazard of Yunnan Province in China as a case study and was verified via comparison with field surveys. As the results indicate, the proposed similarity-based debris-flow risk assessment model is simple and efficient and can improve the comparability and reliability of the assessment to some degree. 相似文献
2.
山地灾害事件发生的年代是理解其发育机制并作出预测的基础。在长时间尺度上,常用的测年方法有光释光、14C、宇宙成因核素和火山灰测年等,其中的关键是能否在剖面中寻找到合适的测年物质。短时间尺度的测年方法以树轮为主,辅以地衣测年。在山地灾害中,不仅灾害沉积本身,其相关沉积物对事件年代也具有指示意义。在实际应用中,根据测年材料的可获性来选择合适的测年方法,最好能结合多种方法对整个灾害沉积体系进行交叉测年,以增强结果的可靠性。野外采样既要满足灾害研究的需要,又要满足年代学的要求。因此建议在野外采样时,灾害和年代学研究人员共同现场讨论以确定最佳采样策略。随着山地灾害得到越来越多的关注,人们认识到仅依据测量记录和历史记录很难具备足够的数据来评估其频率和强度变化,因而,古灾害事件的测年必将得到越来越多的应用。 相似文献
3.
文章系统地总结和分析了当前比较常用的泥石流危险度评价的研究方法,指出现行泥石流危险度评价中评价因子的提取往往需要详细野外勘查,工作量大、费用高,不便于对众多泥石流沟的普查;并提出一种在现场踏勘基础上,基于泥石流规模、频率和承灾体特征的快速便捷的新方法——泥石流危险度野外快速评价,并结合其他方法进行了实例对比验证。结果表明：泥石流危险度野外快速评价结果可靠,可作为快速评价泥石流危险性的新方法进行推广应用。 相似文献
4.
The republic of El Salvador in Central America is an area of high seismic hazard where at least twelve destructive earthquakes have occurred this century alone. The principal sources of seismic hazard are earthquakes associated with the subduction of the Cocos plate in the Middle America Trench and upper-crustal earthquakes in the chain of Quaternary volcanoes that runs across the country parallel to the subduction trench. Hazard assessments for Central America have suggested almost uniform distribution of hazard throughout El Salvador. Seismic zonations for three successive building codes in El Salvador simply divide the country into two regions, with the higher hazard zone containing the volcanoes and the coastal areas. Historical records suggest that the greatest hazard is posed by the upper-crustal earthquakes concentrated on the volcanic centres which, although of smaller magnitude than the subduction events, are generally of shallow focus and coincide with the main population centres. These earthquakes have repeatedly caused intense damage over small areas in the vicinity of some of the main volcanoes. This study focuses on El Salvador to explore the capability of different approaches to hazard assessment to reflect significant variations of seismic hazard within small geographical areas. In the study, three 'zone-free' methods are employed as well as the Cornell–McGuire approach. The results of the assessments are compared and their implications for seismic zoning for construction and insurance purposes are discussed. 相似文献
5.
泥石流灾害及其孕灾环境具有高阶模糊性,现有的模型和方法在表示和分析泥石流灾害时存在明显的尺度效应。首先提出了我国泥石流危险性评价的尺度模型,通过尺度分析的方法分析了孕灾因子的适宜尺度区间。然后基于区间II-型模糊集表示孕灾因子的高阶模糊隶属度,以此描述泥石流及其孕灾环境的复杂性;以区间权重描述各孕灾因子的重要性,并提出了适宜尺度区间上的危险性评价方法。试验表明,这种方法能够克服许多单尺度分析方法的缺陷,在泥石流危险性评价过程中能充分利用孕灾因子在适宜尺度区间上的可能状态,能顾及专家的对孕灾因子重要性评价的不确定性,评价结果比较客观。 相似文献
6.
The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.
Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making. 相似文献
7.
Ali Saeidi Olivier Deck Thierry Verdel 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2013,31(4):1073-1088
The occurrence of subsidence phenomena in urban regions may induce small to severe damage to buildings. Many methods are provided in the literature to assess buildings damage. Most of these methods are empirical and use the horizontal ground strain as a subsidence intensity in the vicinity of a building. Application and comparison of these methods with a case study is the main objective of this paper. This comparison requires some harmonization of the existing methods and the development of a software, which combines the subsidence hazard prediction, the damage evaluation methods and a database of buildings with structural parameters as well as the geographical coordinates of the buildings An additional results is the development of a method for the prediction of the horizontal ground strain in the vicinity of each building. Results are given as a map of damaged buildings for the case study and the different existing methods with some statistical calculations such as the mean and the standard deviation of damage in the city. Comparison of these results allows identification of the “safer” method that give the higher mean of damage. The comparison of the calculated results and observed damage in Lorrain region show that, the Dzegeniuk et al. methods is more realistic in comparison of the other empirical methods. 相似文献
8.
Impulse waves generated by rapid subaerial landslides into water bodies may pose a threat to riparian settlements and infrastructure. Empirically derived prediction equations based on experiments at laboratory scale provide information on key wave characteristics for preliminary hazard assessment. This research discusses existing prediction methods for spatial wave propagation features and compares their results with own impulse wave height decay experiments. While some prediction methods are based on simplified approaches for wave generation such as rigid body slides, others take only limited sets of slide parameters into account, narrowing their range of applicability considerably. The prediction methods are intentionally applied outside their ranges of applicability with the aim to assess their characteristics on an extended parameter range. It is found that a combination of separate terms for wave generation and wave propagation from two different existing prediction methods provides the best representation of the experimental data. 相似文献
9.
Existing methods of evaluating the hazard posed by moraine-dammed lakes are unsystematic, subjective, and depend on the expertise
and biases of the geoscientist. In this paper, we provide a framework for making objective preliminary assessments of outburst
flood hazard in southwestern British Columbia. Our procedure relies on remote sensing methods and requires only limited knowledge
of glacial processes so that evaluations of outburst flood hazard can be incorporated into routine hazard assessments of glaciated
regions. We describe objective approaches, which incorporate existing empirical relations applicable to the study region,
for estimating outburst peak discharge, maximum volume, maximum travel distance, maximum area of inundation, and probability.
Outburst flood hazard is greatest for moderately large lakes that are impounded by large, narrow, ice-free moraine dams composed
of sedimentary rock debris and drain into steep, sediment-filled gullies above major river valleys. We demonstrate the application
of the procedure using three case studies and show that flood hazard varies, especially with major changes in lake level.
Our assessment scheme yields reproducible results and enables engineers and geoscientists to prioritize potentially hazardous
lakes for more detailed field investigation. 相似文献
10.
11.
文章详细地介绍了公路工程建设用地地质灾害危险性评估工作一些常见的基本工作方法,包括野外图件的选用,地质灾害危险性评估区范围的确定,各类地质灾害的测绘、描述、记录以及评估报告编写应注意的几个问题。 相似文献
12.
It is a critical issue to assess landslide hazard degree in the risk analysis of mountain geo-hazards. Currently, different
kinds of approaches to assess landslide hazard degree are developed and utilized from single quantitative analysis to integrated
quantitative analysis. However, several problems of these approaches impede further applications. These problems include (1)
the methods are complex and mathematic background is required sometimes; (2) the methods are hard to utilize. This study comes
up with a new approach to assess landslide hazard degree: a set pair analysis method (SPAM). The SPAM takes the fuzzy property
of grade standards into full account and avoids the values of discrepancy uncertainty coefficient in connection degree formula.
A case study is presented to assess the landslide hazard degree of 24 typical landslides in Fengjie County, Chongqing City,
where the Three Gorges Dam is located. The proposed method is simple in concept and easy in calculation and application. Its
results are credible. 相似文献
13.
Modeling landslide recurrence in Seattle, Washington, USA 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Diana Salciarini Jonathan W. Godt William Z. Savage Rex L. Baum Pietro Conversini 《Engineering Geology》2008,102(3-4):227
To manage the hazard associated with shallow landslides, decision makers need an understanding of where and when landslides may occur. A variety of approaches have been used to estimate the hazard from shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides, such as empirical rainfall threshold methods or probabilistic methods based on historical records. The wide availability of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and digital topographic data has led to the development of analytic methods for landslide hazard estimation that couple steady-state hydrological models with slope stability calculations. Because these methods typically neglect the transient effects of infiltration on slope stability, results cannot be linked with historical or forecasted rainfall sequences. Estimates of the frequency of conditions likely to cause landslides are critical for quantitative risk and hazard assessments. We present results to demonstrate how a transient infiltration model coupled with an infinite slope stability calculation may be used to assess shallow landslide frequency in the City of Seattle, Washington, USA. A module called CRF (Critical RainFall) for estimating deterministic rainfall thresholds has been integrated in the TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-Stability) model that combines a transient, one-dimensional analytic solution for pore-pressure response to rainfall infiltration with an infinite slope stability calculation. Input data for the extended model include topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water-table depth, material properties, and rainfall durations. This approach is combined with a statistical treatment of rainfall using a GEV (General Extreme Value) probabilistic distribution to produce maps showing the shallow landslide recurrence induced, on a spatially distributed basis, as a function of rainfall duration and hillslope characteristics. 相似文献
14.
杨朱两矿受水害威胁严重,采用多种方法进行了水文地质条件勘查,利用其结果,综合分析了矿井水文地质条件,并进行了矿井充水性分区和安全开采的排水量预测,为正确制定矿井防治水措施提供了基础数据。 相似文献
15.
四川省都江堰市龙池地区泥石流危险性评价研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
汶川地震灾区震后泥石流灾害较震前活跃,对灾区泥石流危险性进行评价是灾后重建过程中合理防灾减灾的基础工作。通过研究泥石流灾害事件中的泥石流规模、泥石流沟堆积扇面积及相应的灾害损失等基础资料,提出以泥石流在泥石流沟堆积扇上的平均堆积厚度替代泥石流规模作为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法。用该方法对汶川震区都江堰市龙池镇龙溪河流域2010年"8.13"泥石流事件中的29条沟谷型泥石流进行危险性评价,评价结果中9条为高度危险,12条为中度危险,8条为低度危险。用以泥石流规模为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法进行对比评价,2种评价方法中有65.5%的泥石流的危险性评价结果一致。以泥石流沟堆积扇平均堆积厚度为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法更能突出规模对泥石流综合危险度的贡献,能更好地反映小泥石流流域和小泥石流堆积扇的泥石流在中小规模的泥石流总量下的危险程度。 相似文献
16.
In conventional seismic hazard analysis, uniform distribution over area and magnitude range is assumed for the evaluation of source seismicity which is not able to capture peculiar characteristic of near-fault ground motion well. For near-field hazard analysis, two important factors need to be considered: (1) rupture directivity effects and (2) occurrence of scenario characteristic ruptures in the nearby sources. This study proposed a simple framework to consider these two effects by modifying the predictions from the conventional ground motion model based on pulse occurrence probability and adjustment of the magnitude frequency distribution to account for the rupture characteristic of the fault. The results of proposed approach are compared with those of deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. The results indicate that characteristic earthquake and directivity consideration both have significant effects on seismic hazard analysis estimates. The implemented approach leads to results close to deterministic seismic hazard analysis in the short period ranges (T < 1.0 s) and follows probabilistic seismic hazard analysis results in the long period ranges (T > 1.0 s). Finally, seismic hazard maps based on the proposed method could be developed and compared with other methods. 相似文献
17.
城市化是人类社会发展的必然趋势。伴随着城市的快速发展,大部分城市长期超强度开发利用资源,大量排放“三废”,导致资源破坏,环境恶化,人为产生了一系列地质灾害问题。由于城市地质灾害具有危害性、潜在性、突发性、隐蔽性、社会性等特点,因此全面加强城市防灾减灾,不但特别重要,而且十分紧迫。近年来,地球物理技术的应用范围得到了迅速地扩展。在各种城市地质灾害的监测、预报和防治工作中,地球物理方法同样可以发挥巨大的作用。这里针对崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、海水入侵、地下水资源污染、岩溶塌陷、地面沉降、地裂缝等几种常见城市地质灾害,概述了我国城市中的危害及发展现状,并结合实例介绍了地球物理方法在城市地质灾害勘察中的应用。实践证明,地球物理方法在城市地质灾害勘察的监测、探测和防治中具有特有的优势,是一个前景十分广阔的领域。 相似文献
18.
Natural Hazards - Flooding poses a serious public health hazard throughout the world. Flood modeling is an important tool for emergency preparedness and response, but some common methods require a... 相似文献
19.
Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle, Washington, USA 总被引：13，自引：6，他引：13
Rex L. Baum Jeffery A. Coe Jonathan W. Godt Edwin L. Harp Mark E. Reid William Z. Savage William H. Schulz Dianne L. Brien Alan F. Chleborad Jonathan P. McKenna John A. Michael 《Landslides》2005,2(4):266-279
Landslides are a widespread, frequent, and costly hazard in Seattle and the Puget Sound area of Washington State, USA. Shallow
earth slides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common type of landslide in the area; many transform into debris flows
and cause significant property damage or disrupt transportation. Large rotational and translational slides, though less common,
also cause serious property damage. The hundreds of landslides that occurred during the winters of 1995–96 and 1996–97 stimulated
renewed interest by Puget Sound communities in identifying landslide-prone areas and taking actions to reduce future landslide
losses. Informal partnerships between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the City of Seattle, and private consultants are
focusing on the problem of identifying and mapping areas of landslide hazard as well as characterizing temporal aspects of
the hazard. We have developed GIS-based methods to map the probability of landslide occurrence as well as empirical rainfall
thresholds and physically based methods to forecast times of landslide occurrence. Our methods for mapping landslide hazard
zones began with field studies and physically based models to assess relative slope stability, including the effects of material
properties, seasonal groundwater levels, and rainfall infiltration. We have analyzed the correlation between historic landslide
occurrence and relative slope stability to map the degree of landslide hazard. The City of Seattle is using results of the
USGS studies in storm preparedness planning for emergency access and response, planning for development or redevelopment of
hillsides, and municipal facility planning and prioritization. Methods we have developed could be applied elsewhere to suit
local needs and available data. 相似文献
20.
Marcel Hürlimann Dieter Rickenmann Vicente Medina Allen Bateman 《Engineering Geology》2008,102(3-4):152
Many different runout prediction methods can be applied to estimate the mobility of future debris flows during hazard assessment. The present article reviews the empirical, analytical, simple flow routing and numerical techniques. All these techniques were applied to back-calculate a debris flow, which occurred in 1982 at La Guingueta catchment, in the Eastern Pyrenees. A sensitivity analysis of input parameters was carried out, while special attention was paid to the influence of rheological parameters. We used the Voellmy fluid rheology for our analytical and numerical modelling, since this flow resistance law coincided best with field observations. The simulation results indicated that the “basal” friction coefficients rather affect the runout distance, while the “turbulence” terms mainly influence flow velocity. A comparison of the velocity computed on the fan showed that the analytical model calculated values similar to the numerical ones. The values of our rheological parameters calibrated at La Guingueta agree with data back-calculated for other debris flows. Empirical relationships represent another method to estimate total runout distance. The results confirmed that they contain an important uncertainty and they are strictly valid only for the conditions, which were the basis for their development. With regards to the simple flow routing algorithm, this methods could satisfactorily simulate the total area affected by the 1982 debris flow, but it was not able to directly calculate total runout distance and velocity. Finally, a suggestion on how different runout prediction methods can be applied to generate debris-flow hazard maps is presented. Taking into account the definition of hazard and intensity, the best choice would be to divide the resulting hazard maps into two types: “final hazard maps” and “preliminary hazard maps”. Only the use of numerical models provided final hazard maps, because they could incorporate different event magnitudes and they supplied output-values for intensity calculation. In contrast, empirical relationships and flow routing algorithms, or a combination of both, could be applied to create preliminary hazard maps. The present study only focussed on runout prediction methods. Other necessary tasks to complete the hazard assessment can be looked up in the “Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning” included in this Special Issue. 相似文献