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以地震应变场作为地震活动的变量,通过自然正交函数展开方法,计算了中国大陆6级以上强震前的地震应变场,提取出震前时间因子的异常变化.计算结果分析发现大地震前时间因子在平稳背景上会出现突跳上升或突跳下降变化,且震前地震应变场前4个典型场中至少有3个典型场会出现异常变化,具有多分量显示异常的特点,而异常出现的最早时间大约在震前3年,并且一些地震前出现短临的时间因子异常变化特征.通过震例研究表明用地震应变场分析地震活动异常,提取的时间因子异常结果比应用地震能量场更具有独特的优越性,并讨论了应变场与能量场的差异. 相似文献
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应用ATG6118H痕量氢分析仪在山西夏县地震台开展了试验测试,记录到比较翔实的观测数据。根据观测数据结果分析,地震前观测到断层氢气的异常特征是高值突跳,异常幅度大、时间短。对2012年3—11月痕量氢观测的背景值突变现象进行重点分析,对观测资料的进一步使用奠定基础,为新型仪器观测提供事实依据。 相似文献
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应用ATG6118H痕量氢分析仪在山西夏县地震台开展了试验测试,记录到比较翔实的观测数据。根据观测数据结果分析,地震前观测到断层氢气的异常特征是高值突跳,异常幅度大、时间短。对2012年3-11月痕量氢观测的背景值突变现象进行重点分析,对观测资料的进一步使用奠定基础,为新型仪器观测提供事实依据。 相似文献
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大震前的各种突跳性前兆是短临予报的标志,目前已经引起了国内外地震工作者的普遍重视。前兆异常的突变形态为研究将有助于排除各种干扰,正确地区分异常,较好地做好时间、地点和震级方面的予报。对于已经观测到的各种临震突跳性前兆,目前还没有一种比较 相似文献
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Abstract Modelling and prediction of hydrological processes (e.g. rainfall–runoff) can be influenced by discontinuities in observed data, and one particular case may arise when the time scale (i.e. resolution) is coarse (e.g. monthly). This study investigates the application of catastrophe theory to examine its suitability to identify possible discontinuities in the rainfall–runoff process. A stochastic cusp catastrophe model is used to study possible discontinuities in the monthly rainfall–runoff process at the Aji River basin in Azerbaijan, Iran. Monthly-averaged rainfall and flow data observed over a period of 20 years (1981–2000) are analysed using the Cuspfit program. In this model, rainfall serves as a control variable and runoff as a behavioural variable. The performance of this model is evaluated using four measures: correlation coefficient, log-likelihood, Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The results indicate the presence of discontinuities in the rainfall–runoff process, with a significant sudden jump in flow (cusp signal) when rainfall reaches a threshold value. The performance of the model is also found to be better than that of linear and logistic models. The present results, though preliminary, are promising in the sense that catastrophe theory can play a possible role in the study of hydrological systems and processes, especially when the data are noisy. Citation Ghorbani, M. A., Khatibi, R., Sivakumar, B. & Cobb, L. (2010) Study of discontinuities in hydrological data using catastrophe theory. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1137–1151. 相似文献
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Seismic anisotropy has an important influence on seismic data processing and interpretation. Although the frequency-domain seismic wavefield simulation has a problem of solving the large scale linear sparse matrix due to the computational limitations, it has some advantages over the time-domain seismic wavefield simulation including efficient inversion using only a limited number of frequency components and easy implementation of multiple sources. To accurately simulate seismic wave propagation in the frequency domain, we also need to choose the absorbing boundary conditions to absorb artificial reflections from edges of the model as we do in the time domain. Compared with the classical boundary conditions including the perfectly matched layer and complex frequency-shifted perfectly matched layer, the complex frequency-shifted multi-axial perfectly matched layer has been proven to effectively suppress the unwanted reflections at grazing incidence and solve the instability problem in the time-domain seismic numerical modelling in anisotropic elastic media. In this paper, we propose to extend the complex frequency-shifted multi-axial perfectly matched layer absorbing boundary condition to the frequency-domain seismic wavefield simulation in anisotropic elastic media. To test the validity of our proposed algorithm, we compare the results (snapshots and seismograms) of the frequency-domain seismic wavefield simulation with those of the time-domain modelling. The model studies indicate that the complex frequency-shifted multi-axial perfectly matched layer absorbing boundary condition is stable in the frequency-domain seismic wavefield simulation in anisotropic media, and provides better absorbing performance than the complex frequency-shifted perfectly matched layer boundary condition. 相似文献
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R.-G. FERBER 《Geophysical Prospecting》1988,36(8):857-877
A new time-domain method is introduced for the calculation of theoretical seismograms which include frequency dependent effects like absorption. To incorporate these effects the reflection and transmission coefficients become convolutionary operators. The method is based on the communication theory approach and is applicable to non-normal incidence plane waves in flat layered elastic media. Wave propagation is simulated by tracking the wave amplitudes through a storage vector inside the computer memory representing a Goupillaud earth model discretized by equal vertical transit times. Arbitrary numbers of sources and receivers can be placed at arbitrary depth positions, while the computational effort is independent of that number. Therefore, the computation of a whole plane-wave vertical seismic profile is possible with no extra effort compared to the computation of the surface seismogram. The new method can be used as an aid to the interpretation of plane-wave decomposed reflection data where the whole synthetic vertical seismic profile readily gives the interpreter the correct depth position of reflection events. 相似文献
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Shiliang Su Dan Li Xiang Yu Zhonghao Zhang Qi Zhang Rui Xiao Junjun Zhi Jiaping Wu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(6):737-746
Given the important role of land ecosystem in social-economic progress at regional, national, and international scale and
concurrent degradation of land ecosystems under rapid urbanization, a systematic diagnosis of land ecological security (eco-security)
for sustainable development is needed. A catastrophe model for land ecological security assessment was developed in order
to overcome the disadvantages in subjectivity and complexity of the currently used assessment methods. The catastrophe assessment
index system was divided into hierarchical sub-systems under the pressure-state-response framework. The catastrophe model
integrated multiple assessment indices of land eco-security according to the inherent contradictions and relative importance
of indices without calculating weights. Specifically, membership degree of higher level index was calculated based on the
membership degrees of lower level indices that were subjective to suitable model, such as cusp, fold, swallowtail and butterfly
model. This model was applied to evaluate the state of land eco-security in Shanghai. Mann–Kendall’s test was utilized to
characterize its temporal trend between 1999 and 2008. Significant downward trend was identified for land eco-security, in
terms of pressure sub-index, state sub-index, response sub-index and synthetic index. All these implied that land ecosystem
conditions were not optimistic for Shanghai and such situation should draw the attention of policy makers. The calculation
procedure presented in this paper does not require a high level of technical expertise to determine the membership degree,
making it simple and operational. Being applicable to similar land ecosystems, the catastrophe model is thus believed to provide
an alternative approach to land eco-security assessment. 相似文献
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波前重建法折射成像及应用研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
根据实际工作需要对传统的地震折射资料解释方法的适用范围进行了讨论,指出了传统折射资料解释方法所存在的问题。采用重建波前的方法进行折射成像,通过改进震源函数,并在反演过程中使用有限差分技术解程函方程,进行波场外推,从根本上解决了传统折射资料解释方法存在的问题,计算精度高,速度快。通过理论模型和实际资料的对比计算和验证,效果良好。 相似文献
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基于突变理论的太湖蓝藻水华危险性分区评价 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
蓝藻水华暴发是湖泊生态系统中营养物质长期累积的结果,是系统营养经长期演化后的极端状态.突变理论评价方法无需确定指标权重,减少了人为主观因素,并且计算方便.本文基于突变理论,采取蓝藻水华暴发的表征因子(叶绿素浓度)和导致蓝藻水华暴发的环境因子(总氮和总磷)作为潜在危险性评价指标,蓝藻水华的面积、范围以及暴发频次作为历史危险性评价指标建立多准则蓝藻水华暴发风险评价指标体系,并结合太湖九个分区进行蓝藻水华暴发危险性分区及全湖评价.研究结果表明:竺山湖和西部沿岸为极重危险性湖区;梅梁湾为重度危险性湖区;南部沿岸、贡湖和大太湖为中度危险性湖区;箭湖东茭咀、东太湖和胥湖蓝藻水华暴发危险性较小,为轻微危险性湖区.整体上看,太湖蓝藻水华暴发危险性程度由轻到重基本上沿东南-西北方向变化,与营养盐浓度由低到高分布趋势相一致.根据评价结果,可以明确太湖各区遭遇蓝藻水华暴发危险性的大小,为蓝藻水华风险管理和应急处理提供科学依据. 相似文献
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The mesoscopic damage dynamics and damage evolution have been applied to probe theevolutional process induced catastrophe in the earthquake activity.It is a new method.In thispaper,a brief introduction of the basic principle about damage dynamics and evolution ismade.At the same time,using the theory of the pattern dynamics we studied all earthquakes(M_L≥5.0)which occurred along Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea earthquake belt in the capitalregion.The result indicates that the preparation and happening of the real earthquakes andthe theory are consistent.There are two kinds of evolutional model according to the finalstate,namely,global stability model(GS)and evolution induced catastrophe model(EIC).The two models haven’t evident boundary.The transitional zone exhibits the indeterminacyof the seismic process and the effect of the random variation.This research proposed newapproaches for earthquake prediction. 相似文献
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高分辨率地震资料可以达到更精细的井震标定结果,能更清晰地进行构造解释与储层刻画,同时对薄层具有更好的识别能力。为提高地震分辨率,需要对地震数据进行拓频处理。常规地震拓频方法通常在频率域进行,易受到高频噪音影响,降低资料可靠性。本文提出一种基于鬼波处理与多阶差分结合的时域拓频技术,仅通过原始地震道数次积分与差分运算便能拓宽地震频带,积分及差分结果在高斯窗口内进行振幅匹配以保证处理前后振幅一致性。与差分结果进行加权融合,高阶差分设置较小权值以避免高频噪声的影响,提高算法的抗噪性。本理论模型及实际地震资料处理分析结果表明,该方法能有效提高地震资料分辨率。 相似文献
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基于小波多尺度分析的奇性指数：一种新地震属性 总被引：22，自引：6，他引：22
传统的地震解释主要是观测地震振幅及相位的变化，但是地震振幅也会掩盖地下介质中真实的地质情况.在许多情况下，重要的地质信息可能是通过与振幅特征无关的奇异性参数来传递的.本文提出奇异性指数，即Hlder指数α（又被称为Lipschitz指数），可以作为一种新的地震属性，它能够准确反映数据中的奇点的位置和奇异性强度.Hlder指数α是对某一点上或某一点周围很小的范围内的奇异性强度的度量，大的α值表示低的奇异性（或高的正则性）.研究表明α可以作为一种自然的能够精确刻画地层边界的地震属性.本文根据这一思想，对合成和实测的地震数据进行了小波基础上的多尺度分析研究，结果表明由本文的算法得到的α提高了对地层边界划分的能力，而这些地层界面在传统的地震振幅显示则不明显. 相似文献
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汶川地震表明,我国再保险体系在巨灾保险补偿中发挥的作用十分有限,这激发我们思考这样的问题:应怎样建立有效的巨灾风险分散机制来支撑和促进再保险体系的发展。为此,提出这样的研究设想,从汶川地震为出发点,结合我国巨灾保险的实践经验,整合保险及相关行业的技术优势,从管理制度、技术和风险管理三个层面深入研究我国再保险体系在巨灾风险管理中的作用,以期得出新的建议或改善措施。(1)制度层面:对比国外和我国在地震、洪水、干旱、台风等巨灾再保险管理方面的法律规定,结合政治制度的差别,总结出具有中国特色的巨灾风险管理体系的政策依据。(2)技术层面:以地震风险为突破口,兼顾洪水、干旱、台风风险,探讨如何建立拥有自主知识产权的巨灾风险分析模型及数据库。(3)管理层面:分析巨灾保险在巨灾条件下失灵的深层次原因,论证再保险体系在巨灾风险分散机制中的重要作用,提出我国巨灾风险管理体系的基本框架。 相似文献