共查询到18条相似文献，搜索用时 125 毫秒
1.
以WRF(V3. 7)中尺度模式及其三维变分同化系统(WRF-3Dvar)为平台,GFS(0. 5°×0. 5°)提供模式背景场,对AMSU-A微波辐射资料进行循环同化试验,研究台风数值模拟中AMSU-A资料的可用性及循环同化方法的可行性。以2014年第19号台风"黄蜂"为例,开展了控制试验和多组同化试验。同化试验主要包括循环同化常规观测资料和不同卫星测得的AMSU-A微波辐射资料。在对各试验初始场进行对比的基础上,比较了不同同化试验方案的模拟效果,结果表明:1) AMSU-A资料同化能有效地调整初始场,模拟的台风路径和强度都有一定的改善; 2)不同卫星探测的AMSU-A资料同化效果存在较大的差异,其中NOAA-15资料同化模拟台风"黄蜂"的路径和强度与实况最为接近; 3)循环同化是增加数值模式中资料使用量、改善台风模拟效果的有效方法。 相似文献
2.
ATOVS 不同卫星资料在台风模拟中的同化试验研究 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
利用美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)开发的中尺度模式WRF(ARW)V3.2 及其三维变分同化系统WRF-3DVAR,以1011 号超强台风“ 凡亚比” 为个例,采用连续循环同化的方法对ATOVS 卫星资料进行同化试验,探讨了同化ATOVS 不同卫星资料对“ 凡亚比” 模拟的影响。结果表明,强度影响方面:同化ATOVS不同资料均可有效改善台风强度,台风中心海平面气压平均偏差从42 hPa 下降到18 hPa,但不同资料间的差异并不显著,平均在6 hPa 以内,这表明仅同化ATOVS 资料对台风强度的改善相对有限。路径影响方面:(1)不同卫星的同一种传感器资料效果略有不同,同化NOAA-18 和NOAA-15 的AMSU-A 资料效果较好,NOAA-16 的AMSU-A 效果较差;同化NOAA-15 和NOAA-16 的AMSU-B 资料效果相当,且均优于AMSU-A 资料。(2) 同一颗卫星不同传感器资料的差异较大,同化AMSU-B 资料的改善较为明显,HIRS-3 次之,AMSU-A较差,而同时同化不同资料并没有带来更为明显的改善。(3) 同时同化多颗卫星ATOVS 资料的试验表明,将多种资料引入到同化系统的同时,也带来相应的累积误差,因而仅同化一颗卫星可能比同时同化两颗或三颗卫星ATOVS 资料的效果要好。 相似文献
3.
为了检验不同观测资料在台风预报中的作用,以美国NCEP (National Centers for Environmental prediction)业务同化系统GSI (Grid Statistical Interpolation)为平台,选取2013年路径较复杂且登陆后降水持续较强的“潭美”台风过程为例,分别加入常规地面和高空观测资料、极轨卫星NOAA18、NOAA19、METOP-A和METOP-B资料,以及多普勒雷达基数据资料,探讨不同观测资料同化对台风的预报效果。同时,对台风采用Bogus初始化方案以及循环资料同化对台风路径和强度预报效果进行了对比分析。结果表明:常规观测资料对台风路径预报改善效果最明显,卫星资料的融入对海上台风路径的修正较好,而雷达资料则对台风登陆后的路径预报有改善;并且多源资料的融入效果最好。同时,采用Bogus方案可有效调整初始台风的位置和强度,从而对后期台风路径和强度预报有正效应。采用间隔6 h资料循环同化方法,可有效利用各时段资料,对台风路径和强度预报有较好的改善。 相似文献
4.
5.
ATOVS资料在淮河暴雨预报中的同化应用研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
ATOVS资料的获取弥补了测站稀少地区常规观测资料的不足,尤其是有云条件下的温湿资料,这两种资料对于模式的降水预报极为重要。采用T213-SSI业务系统,对全球NOAA16、17的ATOVS资料进行同化试验,分析了ATOVS资料在极端暴雨天气预报中的应用效果。对2007年7月7—9日发生在淮河流域的一次暴雨过程进行数值模拟研究,设计3种同化方案,对比分析了不同方案的同化模拟结果。试验表明:长期同化AMSU资料,可以改善降水预报,尤其是降水强度的改善明显。通过连续同化,卫星资料能改进大尺度环境场、温湿场和动力场。剔除AMSU-A地面通道及低层700 hPa通道资料的同化效果要优于全部同化,对于暴雨中心的模拟位置、强度有较明显改进,中高层形势场的降水直接影响系统也更加接近实况,温湿场、风场的调整作用尤其明显。 相似文献
6.
地表比辐射率计算的不确定性,直接影响到卫星资料在数值预报中同化应用的效果。本文采用美国NOAA/NESDIS的Weng等[1,2]提出的复杂陆面比辐射率模式,同时用NOAA卫星AMSU-ACh1或Ch2反演的地表比辐射率来调整该模式所需的地表参数,从而在缺少详细地表参数的情况下,改进AMSU-A Ch3和Ch15的地表比辐射率计算精度。在积雪地表情况下,用NOAA卫星AMSU-A资料直接反演各通道的比辐射率,在GRAPES同化系统中的应用表明,结果有明显的改进。 相似文献
7.
ATOVS资料同化方案对暴雨模拟效果的影响 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
本文利用WRF 模式及其3DVar 同化系统,以2009 年6 月29 日00 时到30 日00 时的湖北鹤峰暴雨为研究个例,对ATOVS 探测器的AMSU-A、AMSU-B 和HIRS 三类资料进行了不同的同化方案试验。结果表明:同化ATOVS 三类资料对暴雨模拟的影响不同,HIRS 资料对暴雨模拟效果改进最大,AMSU-B 次之,AMSU-A 最小。同时同化ATOVS 三类资料时,AMSU-A 资料起主要作用,其同化效果与同时同化ATOVS 三类资料相近,优化组合同化AMSU-B 和HIRS 资料的效果最好。同化ATOVS 不同资料对初始要素场的影响不同,AMSU-A 资料主要影响大气温度场,AMSU-B 资料对中高空要素场的影响较大,HIRS 资料对低空湿度场及风场的协同改变最有利于降水模拟的改善。同时ATOVS 资料的稀疏分辨率也是影响同化效果的一个因子,在模式分辨率不变时,同化资料稀疏分辨率可能存在最佳选择。 相似文献
8.
基于集合变分混合同化方法的双台风数值模拟 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
采用基于WRF模式的集合变分混合同化方法(Ens-3DVAR),对2013年双台风“菲特”和“丹娜丝”的路径、强度和降水进行模拟,结果表明:对双台风路径和强度的模拟,无论是模拟效果还是稳定性,Ens-3DVAR方法72 h模拟效果最优;三种试验方法对降水都有一定的模拟能力,SAL评分表明无论是对降水结构、强度,还是降水位置的模拟,Ens-3DVAR方法模拟效果最好;从Ens-3DVAR和3DVAR方法得到的初始时刻的同化增量场来看,同化卫星资料后,两种方法均改变了初始场信息,但Ens-3DVAR试验与3DVAR试验的增量无论是大小还是分布范围明显不同,说明预报系统的局地信息改变对模拟效果有很大的影响;Ens-3DVAR方法采用集合背景场和流依赖性背景误差协方差,弥补了传统3DVAR中采用均匀、各向同性、准定常的背景误差协方差所带来的局限,提供了更接近实际大气的背景场;同时该方法采用了多个不同时刻的输入资料,说明Ens-3DVAR方法是数值预报中利用历史资料的一种可行途径。 相似文献
9.
AMSU资料变分同化及在暴雨数值模拟中的应用研究 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7
在中尺度数值模拟中,利用中国气象科学研究院数值天气预报创新基地开发的GRAPES三维变分同化系统,对AMSU-A/B微波遥感资料进行了同化试验,研究了这种资料在我国夏季暴雨数值预报中的作用。以2003年7月4日的一次暴雨过程为例,分析了同化结果及模拟结果,结果表明:(1)单独同化AMSU-A资料主要改进了初始温度场,而单独同化AMSU-B资料主要改进了初始湿度场;(2)无论是同化AMSU-A资料还是同化AMSU-B资料,对暴雨预报都有一定的改进作用,但是同化AMSU-B资料的改进作用更明显;(3)同时同化AMSU-A/B资料比只使用其中一种资料的模拟效果好,可以更好地改进模拟的暴雨落区及强度,使结果与实况更加接近。使用AMSU资料,对我国夏季暴雨数值预报有改进作用。 相似文献
10.
探空和飞机观测资料联合同化对台风“苏迪罗”（2015）数值模拟的影响研究 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
基于中尺度数值天气预报模式WRF和WRFDA三维变分同化系统,针对2015年台风“苏迪罗”二次登陆过程,利用NCEP ADP提供的无线电探空、飞机报观测资料,同时同化两种资料,并进行36 h模拟预报,从台风移动路径、强度、降水及模式初始场改进等方面分析了同化模拟效果。结果表明,同时同化两种资料能够有效改善台风移动路径、中心附近最低气压的模拟。对浙闽降水关键区24 h降水的TS评分结果表明,该同化方案对台风降水的预报评分有一定程度的改进,尤其是中雨和特大暴雨的改进最明显。对于模式初始场的温度、相对湿度、纬向风、经向风在各高度上的均方根误差,除湿度外均有不同程度的减小。并且同化对于台风结构的模拟也有所调整。 相似文献
11.
Based on the newly developed Weather Research and Forecasting model(WRF)and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation(3DVAR)system,this study constructed twelve experiments to explore the impact of direct assimilation of different ATOVS radiance on the intensity and track simulation of super-typhoon Fanapi(2010)using a data assimilation cycle method.The result indicates that the assimilation of ATOVS radiance could improve typhoon intensity effectively.The average bias of the central sea level pressure(CSLP)drops to 18 hPa,compared to 42 hPa in the experiment without data assimilation.However,the influence due to different radiance data is not significant,which is less than 6hPa on average,implying limited improvement from sole assimilation of ATOVS radiance.The track issue is studied in the following steps.First,the radiance from the same sensor of different satellites could produce different effect.For the AMSU-A,NOAA-15 and NOAA-18,they produce equivalent improvement,whereas NOAA-16 produces slightly poor effect.And for the AMSU-B,NOAA-15 and NOAA-16,they produce equivalent and more positive effect than that provided by the AMSU-A.Second,the assimilation radiance from different sensors of the identical satellites could also produce different effect.The assimilation of AMSU-B produces the largest improvement,while the ameliorating effect of HIRS/3assimilation is inferior to that of AMSU-B assimilation,while the AMSU-A assimilation exhibits the poorest improvement.Moreover,the simultaneous assimilation of different radiance could not produce further improvement.Finally,the experiments of simultaneous assimilation radiance from multiple satellites indicate that such assimilation may lead to negative effect due to accumulative bias when adding various radiance data into the data assimilation system.Thus the assimilation of ATOVS radiance from a single satellite may perform better than that from two or three satellites. 相似文献
12.
The Effects of Assimilating Satellite Brightness Temperature and Bogus Data on the Simulation of Typhoon Kalmaegi (2008) 
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下载免费PDF全文 Observational and bogus satellite data are directly assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulations of Typhoon Kalmaegi (2008). The data assimilation is performed using the Radiative Transfer for TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder (RTTOV) model and the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) technique, with satellite observations taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-16 (NOAA-16) Advanced TIROS Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) system composed of the High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS), the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A), and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B (AMSU-B). Data assimilation experiments are initialized at three different times. Improvements in the numerical simulation of the typhoon are discussed in the context of wind, temperature, pressure, and geopotential fields. The results indicate that assimilation of satellite data can improve both the representation of the initial conditions and the subsequent simulation of the typhoon. Different satellite data have different impacts on the typhoon track. In these simulations, data from AMSU-A play a greater role in improving the simulation of the typhoon than data from AMSU-B or HIRS. Assimilation of satellite data significantly affects the simulation of the subtropical high and the steering of the typhoon by the environmental flow. The subtropical high is enhanced and extends westward in the data assimilation experiments. The background flow therefore steers the typhoon more westward, improving the simulated typhoon track. Although direct assimilation of satellite brightness temperature improves the simulated environmental conditions, it does not significantly improve the simulated intensity of the typhoon. By contrast, initializing the typhoon simulation using bogus data in tandem with satellite data improves not only the environmental conditions but also the simulated inner-core structure of the typhoon. Assimilation of both types of data therefore improves the simulation of both the typhoon track and the typhoon intensity. The results of these experiments offer new insight into improving numerical simulations of typhoons. 相似文献
13.
基于WRF中尺度模式,采用集合卡尔曼滤波方法同化中国岸基多普勒天气雷达径向速度资料,对2015年登陆台风彩虹（1522）进行数值试验。从台风强度、路径、结构等方面验证了同化效果,并对不同区域雷达观测资料的同化敏感性进行讨论。试验结果表明:在同化窗内同化分析场台风位置误差相比未同化平均减小15 km,最多时刻减小38 km,同化资料时次越多,确定性预报路径误差越小。同化雷达资料后较好地反映出台风彩虹（1522）近海加强过程,台风中心最低气压同化分析和预报误差相比未同化最大减小超过25 hPa,台风眼的尺度、眼墙处对流非对称结构相比未同化与观测更加接近。试验还表明:台风内核100 km范围内的雷达观测对同化效果影响最大,仅同化这部分资料（约占总量的20%）各方面效果与同化全部资料相近,而仅同化100 km以外资料效果明显不及同化所有资料。仅同化台风内核雷达观测资料可以在不影响同化效果的前提下,使集合同化计算机时减小为原来的1/3,该策略可为台风实际业务预报提供一定参考。 相似文献
14.
Satellite Data Assimilation of Upper-Level Sounding Channels in HWRF with Two Different Model Tops 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 ZOU Xiaolei WENG Fuzhong Vijay TALLAPRAGADA LIN Lin ZHANG Banglin WU Chenfeng QIN Zhengkun 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2015,29(1):1-27
The Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A(AMSU-A) onboard the NOAA satellites NOAA-18 and NOAA-19 and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites(EUMETSAT)Met Op-A, the hyperspectral Atmospheric Infrared Sounder(AIRS) onboard Aqua, the High resolution Infra Red Sounder(HIRS) onboard NOAA-19 and Met Op-A, and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder(ATMS) onboard Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership(NPP) satellite provide upper-level sounding channels in tropical cyclone environments. Assimilation of these upper-level sounding channels data in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting(HWRF) system with two different model tops is investigated for the tropical storms Debby and Beryl and hurricanes Sandy and Isaac that occurred in 2012. It is shown that the HWRF system with a higher model top allows more upper-level microwave and infrared sounding channels data to be assimilated into HWRF due to a more accurate upper-level background profile. The track and intensity forecasts produced by the HWRF data assimilation and forecast system with a higher model top are more accurate than those with a lower model top. 相似文献
15.
Direct assimilation of cloud-affected microwave brightness temperatures from AMSU-A into the GSI three-dimensional variational(3D-Var) assimilation system is preliminarily studied in this paper. A combination of cloud microphysics parameters retrieved by the 1D-Var algorithm(including vertical profiles of cloud liquid water content, ice water content, and rain water content) and atmospheric state parameters from objective analysis fields of an NWP model are used as background fields. Three cloud microphysics parameters(cloud liquid water content, ice water content, and rain water content) are applied to the control variable. Typhoon Halong(2014) is selected as an example. The results show that direct assimilation of cloud-affected AMSU-A observations can effectively adjust the structure of large-scale temperature, humidity and wind analysis fields due to the assimilation of more AMSU-A observations in typhoon cloudy areas, especially typhoon spiral cloud belts. These adjustments, with temperatures increasing and humidities decreasing in the movement direction of the typhoon,bring the forecasted typhoon moving direction closer to its real path. The assimilation of cloud-affected satellite microwave brightness temperatures can provide better analysis fields that are more similar to the actual situation. Furthermore, typhoon prediction accuracy is improved using these assimilation analysis fields as the initial forecast fields in NWP models. 相似文献
16.
Assimilating AMSU-a radiance data with the WRF hybrid En3DVAR system for track predictions of Typhoon Megi (2010) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The impact of assimilating radiances from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) on the track prediction of Typhoon Megi (2010) was studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and a hybrid ensemble three-dimensional variational (En3DVAR) data assimilation (DA) system. The influences of tuning the length scale and variance scale factors related to the static background error covariance (BEC) on the track forecast of the typhoon were studied. The results show that, in typhoon radiance data assimilation, a moderate length scale factor improves the prediction of the typhoon track. The assimilation of AMSU-A radiances using 3DVAR had a slight positive impact on track forecasts, even when the static BEC was carefully tuned to optimize its performance. When the hybrid DA was employed, the track forecast was significantly improved, especially for the sharp northward turn after crossing the Philippines, with the flow-dependent ensemble covariance. The flow-dependent BEC can be estimated by the hybrid DA and was capable of adjusting the position of the typhoon systematically. The impacts of the typhoon-specific BEC derived from ensemble forecasts were revealed by comparing the analysis increments and forecasts generated by the hybrid DA and 3DVAR. Additionally, for 24 h forecasts, the hybrid DA experiment with use of the full flow-dependent background error substantially outperformed 3DVAR in terms of the horizontal winds and temperature in the lower and mid-troposphere and for moisture at all levels. 相似文献
17.
利用美国NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)发展的GSI(Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation)同化系统和GSM(Global Spectral Model)全球频谱预报模式作为循环同化系统,选用2017年第13号台风为研究个例,采用全空和晴空两种同化方案对AMSU-A(The Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A)辐射率观测开展同化对比试验,并对台风"天鸽"个例进行5 d预报,研究AMSU-A全空辐射率同化对台风天鸽发展过程预报的影响。结果表明,全空同化方案相比晴空同化方案预报的台风路径、台风中心气压以及台风最大风速预报误差更小;全空同化方案对台风"天鸽"生命周期的模拟更加准确,更接近中国气象局发布的台风天鸽最佳路径的最低气压,而晴空同化方案预报的台风发展较弱,无法预报出成熟期的台风强度;全空同化方案能够增加低层通道海上厚云覆盖区域辐射率资料同化量,增幅占AMSUA同化观测总量10%,从而改进海洋区域天气系统的热力场结构。 相似文献
18.
Impact of Assimilating Radiances with the WRFDA ETKF/3DVAR Hybrid System on Prediction of Two Typhoons in 2012 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 XU Dongmei HUANG Xiang-Yu WANG Hongli Arthur P. MIZZI MIN Jinzhong 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2015,29(1):28-40
The impacts of AMSU-A and IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) radiances assimila-tion on the prediction of typhoons Vicente and Saola (2012) are studied by using the ensemble transform ... 相似文献