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1.
Hou Weisheng Cui Chanjie Yang Liang Yang Qiaochu Clarke Keith 《Mathematical Geosciences》2019,51(1):29-51
In each step of geological modeling, errors have an impact on measurements and workflow processes and, so, have consequences that challenge accurate three-dimensional geological modeling. In the context of classical error theory, for now, only spatial positional error is considered, acknowledging that temporal, attribute, and ontological errors—and many others—are part of the complete error budget. Existing methods usually assumed that a single error distribution (Gaussian) exists across all kinds of spatial data. Yet, across, and even within, different kinds of raw data (such as borehole logs, user-defined geological sections, and geological maps), different types of positional error distributions may exist. Most statistical methods make a priori assumptions about error distributions that impact their explanatory power. Consequently, analyzing errors in multi-source and conflated data for geological modeling remains a grand challenge in geological modeling. In this study, a novel approach is presented regarding the analysis of one-dimensional multiple errors in the raw data used for model geological structures. The analysis is based on the relationship between spatial error distributions and different geological attributes. By assuming that the contact points of a geological subsurface are decided by the geological attributes related to both sides of the subsurface, this assumption means that the spatial error of geological contacts can be transferred into specific probabilities of all the related geological attributes at each three-dimensional point, which is termed the “geological attribute probability”. Both a normal distribution and a continuous uniform distribution were transferred into geological attribute probabilities, allowing different kinds of spatial error distributions to be summed directly after the transformation. On cross-points with multiple raw data with errors that follow different kinds of distributions, an entropy-based weight was given to each type of data to calculate the final probabilities. The weighting value at each point in space is decided by the related geological attribute probabilities. In a test application that accounted for the best estimates of geological contacts, the experimental results showed the following: (1) for line segments, the band shape of geological attribute probabilities matched that of existing error models; and (2) the geological attribute probabilities directly show the error distribution and are an effective way of describing multiple error distributions among the input data.
相似文献2.
研究月海撞击盆地,尤其是古老的月海撞击盆地,有助于深入认识月球乃至太阳系中两种动力学即内动力和外动力地质作用的演化过程,也是研究月球早期演化和现今状态的重要纽带。云海撞击盆地为古老的撞击盆地之一,形成于前酒海纪,在后期的内外动力地质作用下,盆地有很大程度的改造。为了恢复云海撞击盆地原貌,深入认识该地区的地质演化过程,本文利用了LRO宽角相机影像数据、LOLA地形数据和GRAIL重力数据等多种类型的遥感数据,开展了云海撞击盆地演化的研究。结果显示,云海盆地是由一次撞击事件形成,具中央隆起的三环结构的撞击盆地,三环直径分别约为740km、500km、340km,盆地中心约为16°W,21°S。云海撞击盆地事件破坏了该地区原始月壳结构,随后岩浆喷出或溢流充填在撞击盆地中形成云海,塑造了现今观察到的云海地形特征和重力异常特征。 相似文献
3.
Assessing flood risk associated with waste disposals: methodology,application and uncertainties 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Waste disposal sites are mostly located in lowland areas close to residential areas inducing a long-term risk of potential
environmental contamination due to flooding. During recent flood events, these areas were reportedly exposed to inundations.
This paper aims to develop a qualitative approach to assess flood risk associated with flood-prone waste disposals at the
basis of Austrian case studies. Risk is investigated as a function of the probability of an event and the consequences of
that event. The presented assessment approach is characterized as qualitative as consequences are expressed in risk categories
but not in expected (monetary) losses. The probability of inundation, the hydrodynamic impacts on considered waste disposal
sites and the expected consequences to the environment (potential emissions of hazardous substances) were linked. Derived
risk categories from “minor risk” to “serious risk” were used to express flood risk to environmental goods like groundwater
bodies, nature reserves and recreation areas. A screening of 1,064 waste disposals yielded roughly 30% of sites located within
or close to flood risk zones. Three representative case study areas were selected and investigated in detail by applying 2D
hydrodynamic models to calculate flow depths and shear stress and by developing emission scenarios. The hydrodynamic modelling
covered three hydrologic scenarios with statistical recurrence intervals of 30, 100 and 300 years. Derived leaching scenarios
ranged from minor emissions up to total erosion of the waste disposal site. Based on four parameters representing flood characteristics,
the susceptibility to erosion (flow velocity and shear stress) and the estimated leaching behaviour, a flood risk evaluation
matrix (FREM) was elaborated. The study outlines that in case of flooding the hazardous emissions could lead to partly tremendous
impacts on environmental goods. Identified uncertainties associated with considered processes were considerably high. However,
the developed qualitative approach provides a decision support aid to identify waste disposals with imminent risk for humans
and the environment. 相似文献
4.
5.
The past 12 years have seen significant steps forward in the science and practice of coastal flood analysis. This paper aims to recount and critically assess these advances, while helping identify next steps for the field. This paper then focuses on a key problem, connecting the probabilistic characterization of flood hazards to their physical mechanisms. Our investigation into the effects of natural structure on the probabilities of storm surges shows that several different types of spatial-, temporal-, and process-related organizations affect key assumptions made in many of the methods used to estimate these probabilities. Following a brief introduction to general historical methods, we analyze the two joint probability methods used in most tropical cyclone hazard and risk studies today: the surface response function and Bayesian quadrature. A major difference between these two methods is that the response function creates continuous surfaces, which can be interpolated or extrapolated on a fine scale if necessary, and the Bayesian quadrature optimizes a set of probability masses, which cannot be directly interpolated or extrapolated. Several examples are given here showing significant impacts related to natural structure that should not be neglected in hazard and risk assessment for tropical cyclones including: (1) differences between omnidirectional sampling and directional-dependent sampling of storms in near coastal areas; (2) the impact of surge probability discontinuities on the treatment of epistemic uncertainty; (3) the ability to reduce aleatory uncertainty when sampling over larger spatial domains; and (4) the need to quantify trade-offs between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in long-term stochastic sampling. 相似文献
6.
The assessment of the risks associated with contamination by elevated levels of pollutants is a major issue in most parts
of the world. The risk arises from the presence of a pollutant and from the uncertainty associated with estimating its concentration,
extent and trajectory. The uncertainty in the assessment comes from the difficulty of measuring the pollutant concentration
values accurately at any given location and the impossibility of measuring it at all locations within a study zone. Estimations
tend to give smoothed versions of reality, with the smoothing effect being inversely proportional to the amount of data. If
risk is a measure of the probability of pollutant concentrations exceeding specified thresholds, then the variability is the
key feature in risk assessment and risk analysis. For this reason, geostatistical simulations provide an appropriate way of
quantifying risk by simulating possible “realities” and determining how many of these realities exceed the contamination thresholds,
and, finally, provides a means of visualizing risk and the geological causes of risk. This study concerns multivariate simulations
of organic and inorganic pollutants measured in terrain samples to assess the uncertainty for the risk analysis of a contaminated
site, an industrial site in northern Italy that has to be remediated. The main geostatistical tools are used to model the
local uncertainty of pollutant concentrations, which prevail at any unsampled site, in particular by means of stochastic simulation.
These models of uncertainty have been used in the decision-making processes to identify the areas targeted for remediation. 相似文献
7.
Marian Marschalko Isik Yilmaz Martin Bednárik Karel Kubečka Hynek Lahuta 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(9):3443-3456
Deep mining of mineral resources causes extensive changes in rock environment and ground morphology and must be considered in the land use planning. Subsidence as a result of underground mining activities in terrains is one of the serious geological hazards because they can effect slopes and damage engineering structures, settlement areas, natural lakes and allow infiltration of contaminant into the groundwater. The main aim of this article was implementation of the building site categories of underground mining regions into the land use plans. This case study area was selected from the region of Orlova town within the Ostrava-Karvina Coal district, and this region is one of the most affected areas by underground mining of black coal in the Czech Republic. Certain risk categories of land, where the individual categories express generalized influence of deep mining of coal in current and planned constructions were also represented in this article. Extensive variations caused by underground mining were identified within a wide variability of risk categories. An important finding was also the extensive variability over time, manifested by spatial variations in the stated categories in the studied time periods. Moreover, technical documentation of environmental impacts related to underground mining activities was provided; importance of existing and proposed underground mining projects that may significantly impact the land use was discussed and pointed out in this article, especially. 相似文献
8.
Rock Wedge Stability Analysis Using System Reliability Methods 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5
Summary We present a system reliability approach to rock wedge stability analysis. Different failure modes are considered, and a disjoint
cut-set formulation is employed – with each cut-set corresponding to a different failure mode – to explore the system aspects
of the problem, so that the reliability of the system is assessed by computing the probability of failure of the slope under
each failure mode. An example case is used to demonstrate different approaches to compute the reliability of the slope design.
Our results show that an approximation to the “exact” probability of failure – given by Monte Carlo simulation results – may
be obtained using a first order approximation to the failure domain, and that linear programming techniques may be used to
obtain bounds of the probability of failure. Furthermore, we identify the most likely failure mode, and we explore the sensitivity
of the computed probabilities to changes in the random variables considered. The results indicate that the reliability results
are quite sensitive to the geometry of the wedge. Changes in water conditions are also found to have a significant impact
on the computed probabilities, while changes in unit weight of the rock have a considerably smaller effect on the reliability. 相似文献
9.
我国多山,崩塌灾害频繁发生,相应的风险评价也得到了越来越多的关注。由于崩塌发生和运移过程的高度不确定性以及历史数据的不完备,往往很难进行相应的定量风险评价。四川罗家青杠岭的崩塌现场非常典型,而且现场资料较全、历史数据较多并且明确,是开展崩塌风险定量研究的很好实例。通过现场工程地质调查、测绘和统计分析,确定了历史崩塌的物源区、堆积区、最大运移距离、年发生概率以及坡体上的4块典型危岩体A-D。基于历史崩塌堆积区的块石统计特征以及物源区危岩体失稳启动位置的不确定性,利用二维Rockfall模拟软件对所在坡面的恢复系数及摩擦系数进行了反演。在此基础上,对危岩体A-D失稳后的运动特征进行了随机性数值模拟和统计分析,从而确定了崩塌的到达概率。基于崩塌发生概率、到达概率、承灾体时空分布概率和易损性的乘积,作者对罗家青杠岭崩塌进行了定量风险评价。评价结果表明,危岩体A和D的风险值处于不可接受的风险区间,块石B和C的风险值处于警告的风险区间,严重威胁着坡脚附近居民的生命财产安全,有必要采取相应的防灾减灾措施。 相似文献
10.
根据工作区潜在震源区划分、潜在震源区地震活动性参数和地震动衰减关系, 进行场地地震危险性分析, 得到不同概率水平下场区相应地震烈度和基岩水平加速度峰值及其反应谱。根据场地工程地震条件划分不同地质单元及相应的场地类别, 进行不同概率水平的地震反应分析计算, 确定地震动设计参数。 相似文献
11.
The evaluation of seismic site response in the urban area of Catania was tackled by selecting test areas having peculiar lithological
and structural features, potentially favourable to large local amplifications of ground motion. The two selected areas are
located in the historical downtown and in the northern part of Catania where the presence of a fault is evident. Site response
was evaluated using spectral ratio technique taking the horizontal- to-vertical component ratio of ambient noise. Inferences
from microtremor measurements are compared with results from synthetic accelerograms and response spectra computed at all
drillings available for this area. Such method is particularly suitable in urban areas where the nature of the outcropping
geological units is masked by city growth and anthropic intervention on the surface geology. The microtremor H/V spectral
ratios evaluated at soft sites located within the downtown profile tend to be smaller than that usually reported in the literature
for such soils. A tendency for amplifications to peaks near 2 Hz is observed only in some sites located on recent alluvial
deposits. Evidences for amplifications of site effects (frequency range 4–8 Hz) were observed in the sampling sites located
on the fault, with a rapid decrease of spectral amplitude just a few tenths of metres away from the discontinuity. Numerical
simulations evidenced the importance of geolithological features at depth levels even greater than 20–30 m. Besides this,
the results strongly confirm the importance of the subsurface geological conditions, in the estimate of seismic hazard at
urban scale. 相似文献
12.
Omkar M. Shrestha Achyuta Koirala Jörg Hanisch Klaus Busch Martin Kerntke Stefan Jäger 《GeoJournal》1999,49(2):165-172
An engineering and environmental geological map of the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal has been elaborated within a project of German-Nepalese
cooperation. In the Kathmandu Valley, the major geo-environmental problems arise from haphazard exploitation of geologic resources,
local landslide zones, severe problems of garbage disposal, river flooding and a dramatic river pollution. The map was prepared
by the use of GIS techniques. It contains all basic geological and environmental data, as geotechnical risk zones (landslide-prone
areas or those of poor foundation conditions), areas for preferable extraction of construction material and those not to be
allowed to be exploited, areas of immediate need of reforestation in order to prevent landslide or badland development, groundwater
protection zones, and suitable garbage disposal sites.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
13.
贵州黔西北地区煤矿资源丰富,因由于煤矿开采导致城市地下地质结构变化而引发安全问题。城市地下空间是城市未来发展的重要增长极,拟建城市规划区地下空间地质结构的识别及评价工作极为重要。文中提出基于电场理论、采空区氧化还原环境及煤区地质规律,综合电阻率、电流、自然电位等多个电参数对采煤区拟建城市区地质结构快速识别的方法,并对强风化层、老窑采空区、煤矿采空区等地质结构特征进行评价,取得成果与实地踏勘、已有工程一致,可为城区建设场地地质灾害危险性评价和地下空间开发利用提供重要依据。该方法具有无损、高效、绿色、低成本等优势,值得进一步研究推广。 相似文献
14.
随着城市化进程的加快,城市人口不断增多,城市工程建设活动日趋活跃,对城市地质环境影响也越来越大.本文通过对乐山市人口、地形地貌、地层岩性、地质构造、区域稳定性等的综合分析,实现对乐山市城市环境地质中的地质灾害危险性分区评价,给出乐山城市地质灾害管理建议,为乐山城市安全运行及可持续发展提供依据. 相似文献
15.
16.
孕灾地质基因是指一定区域所具有的促进地质灾害孕生的内在关键因素。板块构造混杂岩带所处的特殊构造部位决定了其复杂的演化过程和特殊的地质基因。本文在梳理青藏高原构造混杂岩带地质特征的基础上,总结分析了其孕灾地质基因,包括活跃的地质构造、复杂的水热条件、混杂的岩性组合、特殊的蚀变软岩和构造岩溶导水通道等,是引发重大地质灾害和工程地质安全风险的根源。结合典型案例,剖析了构造混杂岩带大型滑坡的成因类型主要有三大类：构造控制型、泥质软岩控制型和蚀变蛇绿岩带控制型,其中蚀变蛇绿岩带是构造混杂岩带最具特色的易滑地质结构,具有典型的地质构造与特殊岩性联合控制特征。构造混杂岩带隧道工程变形破坏主要有塌方、水平收敛、环向收敛、底鼓和错断等五种模式,黏土化蚀变软岩的不良工程特性是制约构造混杂岩带隧道围岩稳定性的重要因素。针对传统的工程地质理论和灾害风险防控技术难以适应构造混杂岩带大规模工程建设面临的挑战,提出了有待深入研究的关键问题和防灾减灾策略。 相似文献
17.
南海海底土体物理力学特征及其地质环境初步研究 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
根据近十多年来多个部门开展的海洋工程地质勘察以及岩土工程测试所获得的资料,对南海不同海区、不同土体类型、不同沉积环境海底土的物理力学性质及其地质环境作了初步研究,总结出滨海区、海峡区、内陆架区、外陆架区、陆坡区、深海平原区不同土体的物理力学特征及其与形成时代、沉积环境、物质组分之关系,为海洋资源开发和工程建设以及海洋区域发展规划提供了重要依据。 相似文献
18.
地质灾害风险性评价对当地防灾减灾具有指导意义。本文以澜沧江重大水电工程扰动灾害为例,在遥感解译与野外实际调查的基础上,选取高程、坡度、坡向、植被归一化指数、距库区距离、工程地质岩组、断裂带密度、年均降雨量、地震峰值加速度9个因素,并基于加权信息量模型进行危险性评价,然后以人口密度、水电站、道路、土地覆盖类型和GDP为承灾体进行易损性评价,最后将危险性和易损性进行信息融合,构建地质灾害风险性矩阵,完成地质灾害风险性评价。评价结果表明:极高和高风险区主要分布在乌弄龙及其上游水电站附近,以及下游库区两岸人类活动相对密集区域,中风险区主要分布在乌弄龙上游库区两岸以及乌弄龙—托巴水电站全域,在下游零散分布;低风险区主要分布在中游高山峡谷段。本次研究较为准确地评估了地质灾害风险性,可为澜沧江流域扰动地质灾害风险规划提供科学依据和技术指导。 相似文献
19.
Comparison of Mathematical Methods of Potential Modeling 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Helmut Schaeben 《Mathematical Geosciences》2012,44(1):101-129
Various attempts are known to turn the “catalogue” of mineral deposit models compiled by Cox and Singer (1986) operational, and have initiated activities called “potential mapping”, “potential modeling”, or “targeting”. The common
ultimate objective is to estimate the probability for a given location that a mineralization of a given type occurred. The
mathematics range from “weights of evidence” and others featuring a Bayesian approach to logistic regression by maximum likelihood,
and include other realizations by means of fuzzy methods, genetic programming, and artificial neural nets. Once developed
and coded, applications are not restricted to mineral prospection and exploration but include any kind of occurrences and
their estimated probabilities, e.g., risk assessment of land slides and many others. 相似文献
20.
长江三峡工程库首区地壳稳定性模糊数学综合评价 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4
地壳稳定性是指一定时期、一定地域内地质体(包括深部地质体和表层岩土体)的稳定程度, 它受地壳结构构造、各种地质作用与工程建设相互作用等的综合影响, 具有综合模糊概念, 本文试图运用模糊数学进行长江三峡工程库首区地壳稳定性定量化综合评价。 相似文献