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1.
陈志 《气候变化研究进展》2010,6(2):141-146
应对气候变化问题最终需要技术创新来解决。技术创新不仅仅是技术的问题,而且是复杂的科学、工程、经济要素和制度相互作用的过程。应对气候变化的创新从"技术制度"角度看,有渐进型、破坏型和激进型创新之分,其中的激进型创新和部分破坏型创新正遭受着所谓"碳锁定",这决定了传统的跨越"三个鸿沟"的政策需要调整和完善,以适应应对气候变化的技术创新。各国政府也越来越认识到应对气候变化相关技术创新的复杂性,我国在制定应对气候变化有关的政策时也必须考虑这些特性。 相似文献
2.
Integrated Global System Model for Climate Policy Assessment: Feedbacks and Sensitivity Studies 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
R. Prinn H. Jacoby A. Sokolov C. Wang X. Xiao Z. Yang R. Eckhaus P. Stone D. Ellerman J. Melillo J. Fitzmaurice D. Kicklighter G. Holian Y. Liu 《Climatic change》1999,41(3-4):469-546
Alternative policies to address global climate change are being debated in many nations and within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. To help provide objective and comprehensive analyses in support of this process, we have developed a model of the global climate system consisting of coupled sub-models of economic growth and associated emissions, natural fluxes, atmospheric chemistry, climate, and natural terrestrial ecosystems. The framework of this Integrated Global System Model is described and the results of sample runs and a sensitivity analysis are presented. This multi-component model addresses most of the major anthropogenic and natural processes involved in climate change and also is computationally efficient. As such, it can be used effectively to study parametric and structural uncertainty and to analyze the costs and impacts of many policy alternatives. Initial runs of the model have helped to define and quantify a number of feedbacks among the sub-models, and to elucidate the geographical variations in several variables that are relevant to climate science and policy. The effect of changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels on the uptake of carbon and emissions of methane and nitrous oxide by land ecosystems is one potentially important feedback which has been identified. The sensitivity analysis has enabled preliminary assessment of the effects of uncertainty in the economic, atmospheric chemistry, and climate sub-models as they influence critical model results such as predictions of temperature, sea level, rainfall, and ecosystem productivity. We conclude that uncertainty regarding economic growth, technological change, deep oceanic circulation, aerosol radiative forcing, and cloud processes are important influences on these outputs. 相似文献
3.
《Climate Policy》2001,1(4):499-515
Against increasing scientific evidence of human-induced global warming, and prevailing uncertainties regarding the fate of the Kyoto Protocol, the use of environmental taxes has been gaining increasing popularity in the OECD region. Economists often conjecture that such instruments provide a continuous incentive for technological innovation, which is likely to be a key determinant for success or failure in climate policy, at least in the long turn. However, there is little empirical evidence available to justify claims of that kind. The objective of this paper is to provide such evidence, by assessing the impacts of Norwegian CO2-taxes, the key instrument in Norway’s climate policy, on technological innovation in upstream petroleum operations. The balance of evidence suggests that the introduction of CO2-taxes has provided some incentive for innovation that has shifted petroleum operations in a less emission-intensive direction. That said, the pattern of technological change pertains mostly to incremental process innovations, cumulative improvements, and adaptations of technologies already available. These insights may assist policymakers when formulating policy strategies and selecting instruments for climate change mitigation. 相似文献
4.
As climate change policies and governance initiatives struggle to produce the transformational social changes required, the search for stand out case studies continues. Many have pointed to the period between 2005 and 2008 in the United Kingdom as a promising example of national level innovation. With strong cross-party consensus and a first-of-its-kind legislation the UK established itself as a climate policy leader. However, early warning signs suggest that this institutionalised position is far from secure. Through a novel application of discursive institutionalism this article presents a detailed analysis of the role of ideas in unravelling this ambition under the Conservative-Liberal coalition administration (2010–2015). Discursive interactions among policymakers and other political actors were dominated by ideas about governmental responsibility and economic austerity, establishing an atmosphere of climate policy scepticism and restraint. By situating this conspicuous and influential process of bricolage within its institutional context the importance of how policymakers think and communicate about climate change is made apparent. The power of ideas to influence policy is further demonstrated through their cognitive and normative persuasiveness, by imposing over and excluding alternatives and in their institutional positioning. It can be concluded that despite innovative legislation, institution building and strategic coordination of different types of governance actors the ideational foundations of ambitious climate change politics in the UK have been undermined. 相似文献
5.
Addressing climate change requires the synergy of technological, behavioural and market mechanisms. This article proposes a policy framework that integrates the three, deploying personal carbon trading as a key element within a policy portfolio to reduce personal carbon footprints. It draws on policy and human motivation literatures that address the behavioural changes that may be needed in the context of a long-term threat such as climate change. This proposal builds on an analysis of the British Columbia carbon tax, international examples of carbon pricing instruments and strategies for behavioural change such as social networks, loyalty management, mobile apps and gamification. Interviews were conducted with experts in financial services, energy conservation and clean technology, as well as with specialists in climate, health and taxation policy. Their input, together with a review of the theoretical literature and practical case studies, informed the proposed design of a Carbon, Health and Saving System for promoting individual engagement and collective action by linking long-term climate mitigation measures with short-term personal and social goals, including health, recreation and social reinforcement.Policy RelevanceThis article identifies areas for climate policy innovation and recommends policies that can support, promote and enable personal carbon budgeting and collective action. Although this study is focused on British Columbia, both the input provided by key opinion leaders and the proposed framework are applicable to other jurisdictions.This policy proposal shows how personal carbon trading could work in the context of a Canadian province with an existing climate mitigation policy. It also specifies a minimum viable product approach to establishing the economic, social and technological foundations for personal carbon trading.The Carbon, Health and Saving System identifies the technologies and stakeholders needed to implement personal carbon trading, and offers the possibility of motivating a widespread conscious human response in the event that carbon taxation proves insufficient to generate economic adaptation in a changing climate. 相似文献
6.
This paper analyses climate science as a discourse to reveal how it enables and constrains climate change negotiations and action. Focusing on long-term outcomes projected in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report and the World Bank’s “Turn Down the Heat” reports, this paper examines processes of discourse structuration and institutionalization to identify the dominant discourses which frame climate action. We trace the dominant discourses identified in the scientific reports – Survivalism, Ecological Modernisation and Economic Rationalism – through the Paris Agreement and selected Leader Statements and Intended Nationally Determined Contributions from COP21. From the 24 states included in this analysis, Papua New Guinea (PNG) is developed as a case study to investigate the hybridity and institutionalization of discourses. Even though PNG’s rhetoric and commitments at COP21 express Survivalism, the state’s policy frameworks rarely move beyond solutions found in Economic Rationalism and Ecological Modernisation. This suggests that states strategically adopt hybrid discourses drawn from climate science in line with their positionality, political economy and interests. Understanding how discourses drawn from climate science manifest in national policies has significant implications not only for how science is communicated at the international level but also for understanding different state positions in the global climate governance regime. 相似文献
7.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):499-515
Abstract Against increasing scientific evidence of human-induced global warming, and prevailing uncertainties regarding the fate of the Kyoto Protocol, the use of environmental taxes has been gaining increasing popularity in the OECD region. Economists often conjecture that such instruments provide a continuous incentive for technological innovation, which is likely to be a key determinant for success or failure in climate policy, at least in the long turn. However, there is little empirical evidence available to justify claims of that kind. The objective of this paper is to provide such evidence, by assessing the impacts of Norwegian CO2-taxes, the key instrument in Norway's climate policy, on technological innovation in upstream petroleum operations. The balance of evidence suggests that the introduction of CO2-taxes has provided some incentive for innovation that has shifted petroleum operations in a less emission-intensive direction. That said, the pattern of technological change pertains mostly to incremental process innovations, cumulative improvements, and adaptations of technologies already available. These insights may assist policymakers when formulating policy strategies and selecting instruments for climate change mitigation. 相似文献
8.
A growing body of research documents how individuals respond to local impacts of global climate change and a range of policy efforts aim to help individuals reduce their exposure and improve their livelihoods despite these stressors. Yet there is still limited understanding of how to determine whether and how adaptation is occurring. Through qualitative analysis of focus group interviews, I evaluated individual behavioral responses to local forest stressors that can arguably be linked to global climate change among landowners in the Upper Midwest, USA. I found that landowner responses were planned as well as autonomous, more proactive than reactive, incremental rather than transformational, and aimed at being resilient to change and transitioning to new conditions, rather than resisting change alone. Many of the landowners’ responses can be considered forms of adaptation, rather than coping, because they were aimed at moderating and avoiding harm on long time horizons in anticipation of change. These findings stand in contrast to the short-term, reactive, and incremental responses that current socio-psychological theories of adaptation suggest are more typical at the individual level. This study contributes to scientific understanding of how to evaluate behavioral adaptation to climate change and differentiate it from coping, which is necessary for developing conceptually rigorous analytical frameworks to guide research and policy. 相似文献
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10.
Adapting agriculture to climate change: a review 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Muhuddin Rajin Anwar De Li Liu Ian Macadam Georgina Kelly 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,113(1-2):225-245
The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to future climate changes and climate variability, including increases in the incidence of extreme climate events. Changes in temperature and precipitation will result in changes in land and water regimes that will subsequently affect agricultural productivity. Given the gradual change of climate in the past, historically, farmers have adapted in an autonomous manner. However, with large and discrete climate change anticipated by the end of this century, planned and transformational changes will be needed. In light of these, the focus of this review is on farm-level and farmers responses to the challenges of climate change both spatially and over time. In this review of adapting agriculture to climate change, the nature, extent, and causes of climate change are analyzed and assessed. These provide the context for adapting agriculture to climate change. The review identifies the binding constraints to adaptation at the farm level. Four major priority areas are identified to relax these constraints, where new initiatives would be required, i.e., information generation and dissemination to enhance farm-level awareness, research and development (R&D) in agricultural technology, policy formulation that facilitates appropriate adaptation at the farm level, and strengthening partnerships among the relevant stakeholders. Forging partnerships among R&D providers, policy makers, extension agencies, and farmers would be at the heart of transformational adaptation to climate change at the farm level. In effecting this transformational change, sustained efforts would be needed for the attendant requirements of climate and weather forecasting and innovation, farmer’s training, and further research to improve the quality of information, invention, and application in agriculture. The investment required for these would be highly significant. The review suggests a sequenced approach through grouping research initiatives into short-term, medium-term, and long-term initiatives, with each initiative in one stage contributing to initiatives in a subsequent stage. The learning by doing inherent in such a process-oriented approach is a requirement owing to the many uncertainties associated with climate change. 相似文献
11.
Jean-Francois Mercure Florian Knobloch Hector Pollitt Leonidas Paroussos S. Serban Scrieciu Richard Lewney 《Climate Policy》2019,19(8):1019-1037
Energy and climate policies may have significant economy-wide impacts, which are regularly assessed based on quantitative energy-environment-economy models. These tend to vary in their conclusions on the scale and direction of the likely macroeconomic impacts of a low-carbon transition. This paper traces the characteristic discrepancies in models’ outcomes to their origins in different macro-economic theories, most importantly their treatment of technological innovation and finance. We comprehensively analyse the relevant branches of macro-innovation theory and group them into two classes: ‘Equilibrium’ and ‘Non-equilibrium’. While both approaches are rigorous and self-consistent, they frequently yield opposite conclusions for the economic impacts of low-carbon policies. We show that model outcomes are mainly determined by their representations of monetary and finance dimensions, and their interactions with investment, innovation and technological change. Improving these in all modelling approaches is crucial for strengthening the evidence base for policy making and gaining a more consistent picture of the macroeconomic impacts of achieving emissions reductions objectives. The paper contributes towards the ongoing effort of enhancing the transparency and understanding of sophisticated model mechanisms applied to energy and climate policy analysis. It helps tackle the overall ‘black box’ critique, much-cited in policy circles and elsewhere.
Key policy insights
Quantitative models commissioned by policy-makers to assess the macroeconomic impacts of climate policy generate contradictory outcomes and interpretations.
The source of the differences in model outcomes originates primarily from assumptions on the workings of the financial sector and the nature of money, and of how these interact with processes of low-carbon energy innovation and technological change.
Representations of innovation and technological change are incomplete in energy-economy-environment models, leading to limitations in the assessment of the impacts of climate-related policies.
All modelling studies should state clearly their underpinning theoretical school and their treatment of finance and innovation.
A strong recommendation is given for modellers of energy-economy systems to improve their representations of money and finance.
12.
Strategies to enhance adaptability: Technological change,sustainable growth and free trade 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Indur M. Goklany 《Climatic change》1995,30(4):427-449
This article proposes three broad interrelated strategies - stimulating technological change, sustainable economic growth and free, unsubsidized trade - to enhance future adaptability to global (including climate) change and some principles for developing the social, legal and economic frameworks necessary to effect these strategies. The proposals are based upon an examination of the present and potential contributions of the strategies to sustainability, adaptability, and mitigation (limitation) of environmental changes, and the various synergies between these strategies. The strategies and principles would meet criteria which recognize that climate change is inevitable, that any climate change will occur in the context of already-occurring global change due to other agents of change, and that reducing vulnerability to these other changes will increase the future adaptability to climate change. Specifically, the strategies should: (a) increase the ability to feed, clothe and shelter the world's expanding population regardless of the agent of change; (b) reduce vulnerability of forests, habitats and biological diversity to demographic and other environmental stresses; (c) be compatible with mitigation measures; (d) be independent of results from more detailed and accurate site-specific impacts assessments which will be unavailable for several years; (e) be implementable today; and (f) have clear benefits now and in the future.The author is Manager, Science & Engineering, Office of Policy Analysis. The views expressed in this article are the author's rather than those of the Department of the Interior or the U.S. Government. 相似文献
13.
The lack of ambitious climate change policies in large anglophone countries, such as the United States, has been explained by the strong media presence of denialist arguments against climate science. Such counterarguments are less visible in the news media of most European countries. Why do many of these countries nevertheless fail to enact ambitious climate change policies? This paper suggests that influential organizations may block ambitious climate change policies in corporatist countries without an extensive media strategy or a strong denialist message. We draw from theories on the policy process, policy networks, influence strategies, and comparative politics to formulate hypotheses about the existence, influence, and strategies of organizations that oppose ambitious climate policy. We test these hypotheses using an original combination of media data and survey data on the national climate policy network in Finland, a corporatist European country that has long lacked ambitious climate policies. The findings show that a coalition that prioritizes economic competitiveness over climate change mitigation is influential and occupies a central position in the policy network. This pro-economy lobby does not question the validity of climate science or actively seek media visibility. Rather, it influences the policy process using other strategies, such as inside lobbying, and appears in the news media less often than other climate policy organizations. Our results suggest that opponents of climate change mitigation can be powerful despite a weak media presence. This implies that studies on climate politics should pay more attention to strategies of influencing beyond the media spotlight. 相似文献
14.
Learning from integrated assessment of climate change 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The objective of integrated assessment of climate change is to put available knowledge together in order to evaluate what has been learned, policy implications, and research needs. This paper summarizes insights gained from five years of integrated assessment activity at Carnegie Mellon. After an introduction, in Section 2 we ask: who are the climate decision makers? We conclude that they are a diffuse and often divergent group spread all over the world whose decisions are primarily driven by local non-climate considerations. Insights are illustrated with results from the ICAM-2 model. In Section 3 we ask: what is the climate problem? In addition to the conventional answer, we note that in a democracy the problem is whatever voters and their elected representatives think it is. Results from studies of public understanding are reported. Several other specific issues that define the problem, including the treatment of aerosols and alternative indices for comparing greenhouse gases, are discussed. In Section 4 we discuss studies of climate impacts, focusing on coastal zones, the terrestrial biosphere and human health. Particular attention is placed on the roles of adaptation, value change, and technological innovation. In Section 5 selected policy issues are discussed. We conclude by noting that equity has received too little attention in past work. We argue that many conventional tools for policy analysis are not adequate to deal with climate problems. Values that change, and mixed levels of uncertainty, pose particularly important challenges for the future. 相似文献
15.
Massimo Tavoni Enrica De Cian Gunnar Luderer Jan Christoph Steckel Henri Waisman 《Climatic change》2012,114(1):39-57
This paper assesses the economic value associated with the development of various low-carbon technologies in the context of climate stabilization. We analyze the impact of restrictions on the development of specific mitigation technologies, comparing three integrated assessment models used in the RECIPE comparison exercise. Our results indicate that the diversification of the carbon mitigation portfolio is an important determinant of the feasibility of climate policy. Foregoing specific low carbon technologies raises the cost of achieving the climate policy, though at different rates. CCS and renewables are shown to have the highest value, given their flexibility and wide coverage. The costs associated with technology failure are shown to be related to the role that each technology plays in the stabilization scenario, but also to the expectations about their technological progress. In particular, the costs of restriction of mature technologies can be partly compensated by more innovation and technological advancement. 相似文献
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17.
This paper analyses structural change in the economy as a key but largely unexplored aspect of global socio-economic and climate change mitigation scenarios. Structural change can actually drive energy and land use as much as economic growth and influence mitigation opportunities and barriers. Conversely, stringent climate policy is bound to induce specific structural and socio-economic transformations that are still insufficiently understood. We introduce Multi-Sectoral macroeconomic Integrated Assessment Models as tools to capture the key drivers of structural change and we conduct a multi-model study to assess main structural effects – changes of the sectoral composition and intensity of trade of global and regional economies – in a baseline and 2°C policy scenario by 2050. First, the range of baseline projections across models, for which we identify the main drivers, illustrates the uncertainty on future economic pathways – in emerging economies especially – and inform on plausible alternative futures with implications for energy use and emissions. Second, in all models, climate policy in the 2°C scenario imposes only a second-order impact on the economic structure at the macro-sectoral level – agriculture, manufacturing and services - compared to changes modelled in the baseline. However, this hides more radical changes for individual industries – within the energy sector especially. The study, which adopts a top-down framing of global structural change, represents a starting point to kick-start a conversation and propose a new research agenda seeking to improve understanding of the structural change effects in socio-economic and mitigation scenarios, and better inform policy assessments. 相似文献
18.
The language of transformational change is increasingly applied to climate policy, and particularly in climate finance. Transformational change in this context is used with respect to low-carbon development futures, with the emphasis on mitigation and GHG metrics. But, for many developing countries, climate policy is embedded in a larger context of sustainable development objectives, defined through a national process. Viewed thus, there is a potential tension between mitigation-focused transformation and nationally driven sustainable development. We explore this tension in the context of operationalizing the Green Climate Fund (GCF), which has to deal with the fundamental tension between country ownership and transformational change. In relation to climate finance, acceptance of diverse interpretations of transformation are essential conditions for avoiding risk of transformational change becoming a conditionality on development. We further draw lessons from climate governance and the development aid literature. The article examines how in the case of both the Clean Development Mechanism and Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions, there has been limited success in achieving both development objectives and ‘nationally appropriate’ mitigation. The development aid literature points to process-based approaches as a possible alternative, but there are limitations to this approach.
Policy relevance
The concept of transformational change has gained prominence in climate finance. The conundrum facing the GCF is that it seeks to support transformational change in the climate realm, in a context where countries may have competing priorities. Balancing or even transcending this tension is a fundamental design challenge for the GCF. A primary focus on mitigation, particularly if metrics of performance are tied exclusively to GHG reduction, raise concerns about diluting ownership by recipient countries and evokes concerns of conditionality or worse. The literature on development assistance has explored options notably conditions on process and adequate capacity, and suggests that there are no short cuts to building domestic ownership. Actors on climate change need to avoid the risk that transformational change is perceived as, and becomes, an imposed condition. The risk that transformation change, operationalized in the context of unequal power relations, becomes an imposition on development, needs to be avoided. 相似文献
19.
Hemant R. Ojha Sharad Ghimire Adam Pain Andrea Nightingale Dil B. Khatri Hari Dhungana 《Climate Policy》2016,16(4):415-433
As developing countries around the world formulate policies to address climate change, concerns remain as to whether the voices of those most exposed to climate risk are represented in those policies. Developing countries face significant challenges for contextualizing global-scale scientific research into national political dynamics and downscaling global frameworks to sub-national levels, where the most affected are presumed to live. This article critiques the ways in which the politics of representation and climate science are framed and pursued in the process of climate policy development, and contributes to an understanding of the relative effectiveness of globally framed, generic policy mechanisms in vulnerable and politically volatile contexts. Based on this analysis, it also outlines opportunities for the possibility of improving climate policy processes to contest technocratic framing and generic international adaptation solutions.
Policy relevance
Nepal's position as one of the countries most at risk from climate change in the Himalayas has spurred significant international support to craft climate policy responses over the past few years. Focusing on the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) and the Climate Change Policy, this article examines the extent to which internationally and scientifically framed climate policy in Nepal recognizes the unfolding political mobilizations around the demand for a representative state and equitable adaptation to climate risks. This is particularly important in Nepal, where political unrest in the post-conflict transition after the end of the civil war in 2006 has focused around struggles over representation for those historically on the political margins. Arguing that vulnerability to climate risk is produced in conjunction with social and political conditions, and that not everyone in the same locality is equally vulnerable, we demonstrate the multi-faceted nature of the politics of representation for climate policy making in Nepal. However, so far, this policy making has primarily been shaped through a technocratic framing that avoids political contestations and downplays the demand for inclusive and deliberative processes. Based on this analysis, we identify the need for a flexible, contextually grounded, and multi-scalar approach to political representation while also emphasizing the need for downscaling climate science that can inform policy development and implementation to achieve fair and effective adaptation to climate change. 相似文献
20.
The paper discusses the development of economic techniques for dealing with uncertainties in economic analysis of planting trees to mitigate climatic change. In consideration of uncertainty, time preference and intergenerational equity, the traditional cost-benefit analysis framework is challenged with regard to the discounting/non-discounting of carbon uptake benefits, and because it usually uses a constant and positive discount rate. We investigate the influence of various discounting protocols on the outputs of economic analysis. The idea of using the declining discount rate is also considered. Several numerical examples dealing with the analysis of afforestation for carbon sequestration in Scotland and Ukraine are provided. We show that the choice of discounting protocols have a considerable influence on the results of economic analysis, and therefore, on the decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation strategies. The paper concludes with some innovative insights on accounting for uncertainties and time preference in tackling climate change through forestry, several climate policy implications of dealing with uncertainties, and a brief discussion of what the use of different discounting protocols might imply for decision making. 相似文献