共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 62 毫秒
1.
RegCM4.1对中国区域气候模拟能力评估 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用中国气象局提供的1985—2004年756个台站的逐日降水和气温观测数据评估了区域气候模式(RegCM4.1)对中国地区不同季节的降水和气温的模拟性能,并结合中国的区域气候特征和气候带分布进行分区讨论。结果表明RegCM4.1能够较好地再现中国地区四季降水占全年百分比、降水率的空间分布特点以及降水带南北摆动的季节变化特征。RegCM4.1对平均气温分布模拟较好,强度和高低中心与观测事实接近,但对青藏高原地区的气温分布模拟值一致偏低。同时发现RegCM4.1能够合理再现内陆地区气温日较差明显大于沿海地区的总体分布特征,不过模拟值在新疆和沿海地区比观测结果均偏低。 相似文献
2.
Babatunde J. Abiodun Zachariah D. Adeyewa Philip G. Oguntunde Ayobami T. Salami Vincent O. Ajayi 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,110(1-2):77-96
This study investigates the potential impacts of reforestation in West Africa on the projected regional climate in the near two decades (2031–2050) under the SRES A1B scenario. A regional climate model (RegCM3) forced with a global circulation model (ECHAM5) simulations was used for the study. The study evaluates the capability of the regional model in simulating the present-day climate over West Africa, projects the future climate over the region and investigates impacts of seven hypothetical reforestation options on the projected future climate. Three of these reforestation options assume zonal reforestation over West Africa (i.e., over the Sahel, Savanna and Guinea), while the other four assume random reforestation over Nigeria. With the elevated GHGs (A1B scenario), a warmer and drier climate is projected over West Africa in 2031–2050. The maximum warming (+2.5°C) and drying (?2?mm?day?1) occur in the western part of the Sahel because the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) flow is stronger and deflects the cool moist air more eastward, thereby lowering the warming and drying in the eastern part. In the simulations, reforestation reduces the projected warming and drying over the reforested zones but increases them outside the zones because it influences the northward progression of WAM in summer. It reduces the speed of the flow by weakening the temperature gradient that drives the flow and by increasing the surface drag on the flow over the reforested zone. Hence, in summer, the reforestation delays the onset of monsoon flow in transporting cool moist air over the area located downwind of the reforested zone, consequently enhancing the projected warming and drying over the area. The impact of reforesting Nigeria is not limited to the country; while it lowers the warming over part of the country (and over Togo), it increases the warming over Chad and Cameroon. This study, therefore, suggests that using reforestation to mitigate the projected future climate change in West Africa could have both positive and negative impacts on the regional climate, reducing temperature in some places and increasing it in others. Hence, reforestation in West Africa requires a mutual agreement among the West African nations because the impacts of reforestation do not recognize political boundaries. 相似文献
3.
This study investigates how a large-scale reforestation in Savanna (8–12°N, 20°W–20°E) could affect drought patterns over West Africa in the future (2031–2060) under the RCP4.5 scenario. Simulations from two regional climate models (RegCM4 and WRF) were analyzed for the study. The study first evaluated the performance of both RCMs in simulating the present-day climate and then applied the models to investigate the future impacts of global warming and reforestation on the drought patterns. The simulated and observed droughts were characterized with the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the drought patterns were classified using a Self-organizing Map (SOM) technique. The models capture essential features in the seasonal rainfall and temperature fields (including the Saharan Heat Low), but struggle to reproduce the onset and retreat of the West African Monsoon as observed. Both RCMs project a warmer climate (about 1–2 °C) over West Africa in the future. They do not reach a consensus on future change in rainfall, but they agree on a future increase in frequency of severe droughts (by about 2 to 9 events per decade) over the region. They show that reforestation over the Savanna could reduce the future warming by 0.1 to 0.8 °C and increase the precipitation by 0.8 to 1.2 mm per day. However, the impact of reforestation on the frequency of severe droughts is twofold. While reforestation decreases the droughts frequency (by about 1–2 events per decade) over the Savanna and Guinea coast, it increases droughts frequency (by 1 event per decade) over the Sahel, especially in July to September. The results of this study have application in using reforestation to mitigate impacts of climate change in West Africa. 相似文献
4.
We present an analysis of a high resolution multi-decadal simulation of recent climate (1971–2000) over the Korean Peninsula
with a regional climate model (RegCM3) using a one-way double-nested system. Mean climate state as well as frequency and intensity
of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales, with focus on surface air temperature and
precipitation. The mother intermediate resolution model domain encompasses the eastern regions of Asia at 60 km grid spacing
while the high resolution nested domain covers the Korean Peninsula at 20 km grid spacing. The simulation spans the 30-year
period of January 1971 through December 2000, and initial and lateral boundary conditions for the mother domain are provided
from ECHO-G fields based on the IPCC SRES B2 scenario. The model shows a good performance in reproducing the climatological
and regional characteristics of surface variables, although some persistent biases are present. Main results are as follows:
(1) The RegCM3 successfully simulates the fine-scale structure of the temperature field due to topographic forcing but it
shows a systematic cold bias mostly due to an underestimate of maximum temperature. (2) The frequency distribution of simulated
daily mean temperature agrees well with the observed seasonal and spatial patterns. In the summer season, however, daily variability
is underestimated. (3) The RegCM3 simulation adequately captures the seasonal evolution of precipitation associated to the
East Asia monsoon. In particular, the simulated winter precipitation is remarkably good, clearly showing typical precipitation
patterns that occur on the northwestern areas of Japan during the winter monsoon. Although summer precipitation is underestimated,
area-averaged time series of precipitation over Korea show that the RegCM3 agrees better with observations than ECHO-G both
in terms of seasonal evolution and precipitation amounts. (4) Heavy rainfall phenomena exceeding 300 mm/day are simulated
only at the high resolution of the double nested domain. (5) The model shows a tendency to overestimate the number of precipitation
days and to underestimate the precipitation intensities. (6) A CSEOF analysis reveals that the model captures the strength
of the annual cycle and the surface warming trend throughout the simulated period. 相似文献
5.
The authors investigate possible changes of monsoon rainfall and associated seasonal (June-JulyAugust) anomaly patterns over eastern China in the late 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 emission scenario as simulated by a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) nested in a general circulation model (FvGCM/CCM3).Two sets of multi-decadal simulations are performed at 20-km grid spacing for present day and future climate conditions.Results show that the RegCM3 reproduces the mean rainfall distribution;however the evolution of the monsoon rain belt from South China to North China is not well simulated.Concerning the rain pattern classifications,RegCM3 overestimates the occurrence of Pattern 1 (excessive rainfall in northern China) and underestimates that of Pattern 2 (increased rainfall over the Huai River basin).Under future climate conditions,RegCM3 projects less occurrence of Pattern 1,more of Pattern 2,and little change of Pattern 3 (rainfall increase along the Yangtze River).These results indicate that there might be increased rainfall over the Huai-Yellow River area and reduced rainfall over North China in the future,while rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin is not modified significantly.Uncertainties exist in the present study are also discussed. 相似文献
6.
使用20km高水平分辨率的区域气候模式RegCM3,单向嵌套FvGCM/CCM3全球模式,进行了中国区域气候变化的数值模拟试验,分析华北地区夏半年4-9月的气温、降水和高温、干旱事件的变化。模式积分时间分为两个时段,分别为当代的1961-1990年和在IPCC SRES A2温室气体排放情景下的21世纪末2071-2100年。模式检验结果表明:在大部分月份,区域模式对当代气候的模拟都较全球模式更好。两个模式模拟的未来气温和降水变化,在空间分布型和量级上都有一定不同,如区域模式的升温更高,降水出现大范围减少等。此外,使用日最高气温不低于35℃的日数(D_(T35))和考虑了湿度因素的炎热指数(I_(H))不低于35℃的日数(D_(H135)),分析了区域模式模拟的未来高温事件变化,结果表明:未来华北地区D_(T35)和平原地区D_(H135)均有较大增加。未来华北地区的连续干旱日数(CDD)将增加,依照UNEP(United Nations Environment Programme)干旱指数(A_(U))给出的气候湿润区将有较大幅度减少,而半湿润半干旱区和半干旱区面积将增加。 相似文献
7.
利用区域气候模式RegCM4的逐日气温和降水资料,预估1.5℃和2.0℃升温情景下,东北地区平均气候和极端气候事件的变化。结果表明：RCP4.5排放情景下,模式预计在2030年和2044年左右稳定达到1.5℃和2.0℃升温;两种升温情景下,东北地区气温、积温、生长季长度均呈增加趋势,且增幅随着升温阈值的升高而增加;1.5℃升温情景下,年平均气温增幅为1.19℃,年平均降水距平百分率增幅为5.78%,积温增加247.1℃·d,生长季长度延长7.0 d;2.0℃升温情景下气温、积温、生长季长度增幅较1.5℃升温情景下显著,但是年和四季降水普遍减少,年降水距平百分率减小1.96%。两种升温情景下,极端高温事件显著增加,极端低温事件显著减少,极端降水事件普遍增加。霜冻日数、结冰日数均呈显著减少趋势,热浪持续指数呈显著增加趋势;未来东北地区降水极端性增强,不仅单次降水过程的量级增大,极端降水过程的量级也明显增大,随着升温阈值的增大,极端降水的强度也逐渐增大。 相似文献
8.
Yura Kim Mikyoung Jun Seung-Ki Min Myoung-Seok Suh Hyun-Suk Kang 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(2):237-249
CORDEX-East Asia, a branch of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) initiative, provides high-resolution climate simulations for the domain covering East Asia. This study analyzes temperature data from regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the CORDEX - East Asia region, accounting for the spatial dependence structure of the data. In particular, we assess similarities and dissimilarities of the outputs from two RCMs, HadGEM3-RA and RegCM4, over the region and over time. A Bayesian functional analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is used to simultaneously model the temperature patterns from the two RCMs for the current and future climate. We exploit nonstationary spatial models to handle the spatial dependence structure of the temperature variable, which depends heavily on latitude and altitude. For a seasonal comparison, we examine changes in the winter temperature in addition to the summer temperature data. We find that the temperature increase projected by RegCM4 tends to be smaller than the projection of HadGEM3-RA for summers, and that the future warming projected by HadGEM3-RA tends to be weaker for winters. Also, the results show that there will be a warming of 1-3°C over the region in 45 years. More specifically, the warming pattern clearly depends on the latitude, with greater temperature increases in higher latitude areas, which implies that warming may be more severe in the northern part of the domain. 相似文献
9.
Climate changes over China from the present (1990–1999) to future (2046–2055) under the A1FI (fossil fuel intensive) and A1B (balanced) emission scenarios are projected using the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) nests with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM). For the present climate, RegCM3 downscaling corrects several major deficiencies in the driving CCSM, especially the wet and cold biases over the Sichuan Basin. As compared with CCSM, RegCM3 produces systematic higher spatial pattern correlation coefficients with observations for precipitation and surface air temperature except during winter. The projected future precipitation changes differ largely between CCSM and RegCM3, with strong regional and seasonal dependence. The RegCM3 downscaling produces larger regional precipitation trends (both decreases and increases) than the driving CCSM. Contrast to substantial trend differences projected by CCSM, RegCM3 produces similar precipitation spatial patterns under different scenarios except autumn. Surface air temperature is projected to consistently increase by both CCSM and RegCM3, with greater warming under A1FI than A1B. The result demonstrates that different scenarios can induce large uncertainties even with the same RCM-GCM nesting system. Largest temperature increases are projected in the Tibetan Plateau during winter and high-latitude areas in the northern China during summer under both scenarios. This indicates that high elevation and northern regions are more vulnerable to climate change. Notable discrepancies for precipitation and surface air temperature simulated by RegCM3 with the driving conditions of CCSM versus the model for interdisciplinary research on climate under the same A1B scenario further complicated the uncertainty issue. The geographic distributions for precipitation difference among various simulations are very similar between the present and future climate with very high spatial pattern correlation coefficients. The result suggests that the model present climate biases are systematically propagate into the future climate projections. The impacts of the model present biases on projected future trends are, however, highly nonlinear and regional specific, and thus cannot be simply removed by a linear method. A model with more realistic present climate simulations is anticipated to yield future climate projections with higher credibility. 相似文献
10.
Changes in Extreme Rainfall Events in South Africa 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
Simon J. Mason Peter R. Waylen Gillian M. Mimmack Balakanapathy Rajaratnam J. Michael Harrison 《Climatic change》1999,41(2):249-257
Extreme rainfall events can have severe impacts on society, so possible long-term changes in the intensity of extreme events are of concern. Testing for long-term changes in the intensity of extreme events is complicated by data inhomogeneities resulting from site and instrumentation changes. Using rainfall data from stations in South Africa that have not involved site relocations, but which have not been tested for inhomogeneities resulting from changes in instrumentation, a method of testing for changes in the intensity of extreme events is adopted. Significant increases in the intensity of extreme rainfall events between 1931–1960 and 1961–1990 are identified over about 70% of the country. The intensity of the 10-year high rainfall events has increased by over 10% over large areas of the country, except in parts of the north-east, north-west and in the winter rainfall region of the south-west. Percentage increases in the intensity of high rainfall events are largest for the most extreme events. While some inhomogeneities remain in the data used, the observed changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events over South Africa are thought to be at least partly real. 相似文献
11.
P. Sinha U. C. Mohanty S. C. Kar S. K. Dash S. Kumari 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,112(1-2):285-306
The regional climate model (RegCM3) from the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics has been used to simulate the Indian summer monsoon for three different monsoon seasons such as deficit (1987), excess (1988) and normal (1989). Sensitivity to various cumulus parameterization and closure schemes of RegCM3 driven by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting global spectral model products has been tested. The model integration of the nested RegCM3 is conducted using 90 and 30-km horizontal resolutions for outer and inner domains, respectively. The India Meteorological Department gridded rainfall (1° × 1°) and National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP)–Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis-2 of 2.5° × 2.5° horizontal resolution data has been used for verification. The RegCM3 forced by NCEP–DOE reanalysis-2 data simulates monsoon seasons of 1987 and 1988 reasonably well, but the monsoon season of 1989 is not represented well in the model simulations. The RegCM3 runs driven by the global model are able to bring out seasonal mean rainfall and circulations well with the use of the Grell and Anthes–Kuo cumulus scheme at 90-km resolution. While the rainfall intensity and distribution is brought out well with the Anthes–Kuo scheme, upper air circulation features are brought out better by the Grell scheme. The simulated rainfall distribution is better with RegCM3 using the MIT-Emanuel cumulus scheme for 30-km resolution. Several statistical analyses, such as correlation coefficient, root mean square error, equitable threat score, confirm that the performance of MIT-Emanuel scheme at 30-km resolution is better in simulating all-India summer monsoon rainfall. The RegCM3 simulated rainfall amount is more and closer to observations than that from the global model. The RegCM3 has corrected its driven GCM in terms of rainfall distribution and magnitude over some parts of India during extreme years. This study brings out several weaknesses of the RegCM model which are documented in this paper. 相似文献
12.
Climate change has the potential ability to alter the occurrence and severity of extreme events. Though predicting changes
of such extreme events is difficult, understanding them is important to determine the impacts of climate change in various
sectors. This paper presents the change in rainfall extremes in the monsoon season in south-west Indian peninsula. Daily rainfall
data were analysed for the entire Kerala state in India to determine if the extreme rainfall had changed over the 50-year
period. Several indices were derived from the data to identify the extreme rainfalls. The trends of all the extreme indices
were assessed by parametric ordinary least square regression technique, which were tested for significance at 95% level. Results
showed significant decrease in monsoon rainfall extremes in Kerala that would affect the tendency of change in seasonal total
rainfall. This study provides a comprehensive knowledge on extreme monsoon precipitation in Kerala, which could also be employed
to study changing climate at local scale in other regions. 相似文献
13.
An analysis of simulated future surface climate change over the southern half of Korean Peninsula using a RegCM3-based high-resolution
one-way double-nested system is presented. Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate
events are discussed for the 30-year-period of 2021–2050 with respect to the reference period of 1971–2000 based on the IPCC
SRES B2 emission scenario. Warming in the range of 1–4°C is found throughout the analysis region and in all seasons. The warming
is maximum in the higher latitudes of the South Korean Peninsula and in the cold season. A large reduction in snow depth is
projected in response to the increase of winter minimum temperature induced by the greenhouse warming. The change in precipitation
shows a distinct seasonal variation and a substantial regional variability. In particular, we find a large increase of wintertime
precipitation over Korea, especially in the upslope side of major mountain systems. Summer precipitation increases over the
northern part of South Korea and decreases over the southern regions, indicating regional diversity. The precipitation change
also shows marked intraseasonal variations throughout the monsoon season. The temperature change shows a positive trend throughout
2021–2050 while the precipitation change is characterized by pronounced interdecadal variations. The PDF of the daily temperature
is shifted towards higher values and is somewhat narrower in the scenario run than the reference one. The number of frost
days decreases markedly and the number of hot days increases. The regional distribution of heavy precipitation (over 80 mm/day)
changes considerably, indicating changes in flood vulnerable regions. The climate change signal shows pronounced fine scale
signal over Korea, indicating the need of high-resolution climate simulations 相似文献
14.
Mansour Almazroui 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,104(1-2):261-276
As a step towards the adoption and use of the regional climate model (RegCM3) for the simulation of intense rainfall events over the Arabian Peninsula, this study examines its sensitivity to domain size, boundary location, forcing fields, and resolution. In the climatological results, RegCM3 performs well in reproducing the annual and the seasonal mean precipitation as well as the contrast between wet and dry years in terms of the amounts and locations of the rainbands. In addition, simulations are performed for two cases of intense rainfall events in the Jeddah area and surroundings using a combination of three domains and two boundary forcings at 50?km. The results show that different combinations of these parameters provide different skills for the regional model. However, RegCM3 performs relatively better when ERA40 (NNRP2) is used at the boundaries in the smaller domain (larger domain), indicating the importance of the stronger (relatively weaker) influence of boundary forcing needed to capture these intense rainfall events around Jeddah. This may be explained by the fact that around that region, RegCM3 produces, in the smaller domain, higher relative humidity and stronger wind vectors closer to the reanalyses when nested within the ERA40, while it shows its best performance with the larger domain when driven by NNRP2. It is also shown that the use of high resolution does not systematically improve the simulation of such events, although some encouraging results were produced. 相似文献
15.
K. Rajendran A. Kitoh J. Srinivasan R. Mizuta R. Krishnan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,110(4):555-571
In this study, the authors have investigated the likely future changes in the summer monsoon over the Western Ghats (WG) orographic region of India in response to global warming, using time-slice simulations of an ultra high-resolution global climate model and climate datasets of recent past. The model with approximately 20-km mesh horizontal resolution resolves orographic features on finer spatial scales leading to a quasi-realistic simulation of the spatial distribution of the present-day summer monsoon rainfall over India and trends in monsoon rainfall over the west coast of India. As a result, a higher degree of confidence appears to emerge in many aspects of the 20-km model simulation, and therefore, we can have better confidence in the validity of the model prediction of future changes in the climate over WG mountains. Our analysis suggests that the summer mean rainfall and the vertical velocities over the orographic regions of Western Ghats have significantly weakened during the recent past and the model simulates these features realistically in the present-day climate simulation. Under future climate scenario, by the end of the twenty-first century, the model projects reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghats south of 16°N that is found to be associated with drastic reduction in the southwesterly winds and moisture transport into the region, weakening of the summer mean meridional circulation and diminished vertical velocities. We show that this is due to larger upper tropospheric warming relative to the surface and lower levels, which decreases the lapse rate causing an increase in vertical moist static stability (which in turn inhibits vertical ascent) in response to global warming. Increased stability that weakens vertical velocities leads to reduction in large-scale precipitation which is found to be the major contributor to summer mean rainfall over WG orographic region. This is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy rainfall days over WG which is a typical manifestation of the decrease in large-scale precipitation over this region. Thus, the drastic reduction of vertical ascent and weakening of circulation due to ??upper tropospheric warming effect?? predominates over the ??moisture build-up effect?? in reducing the rainfall over this narrow orographic region. This analysis illustrates that monsoon rainfall over mountainous regions is strongly controlled by processes and parameterized physics which need to be resolved with adequately high resolution for accurate assessment of local and regional-scale climate change. 相似文献
16.
温室效应对我国东部地区气候影响的高分辨率数值试验 总被引：17，自引：4，他引：13
使用RegCM3区域气候模式,单向嵌套NASA/NCAR 的全球环流模式FvGCM的输出结果,对中国东部地区进行了在实际温室气体浓度下当代1961~1990年和在IPCC A2温室气体排放情景下21世纪末期2071~2100年各30年时间长度,水平分辨率为20 km的气候变化模拟试验。首先分析全球和区域模式对中国东部地区当代气候的模拟情况,结果表明全球模式对中国东部地区气温的总体分布型模拟较好,但存在冷偏差,区域模式在对这个冷偏差有所纠正的同时,提供了气温地理分布更详细的信息。全球模式模拟的年降水中心位于长江流域,与观测差别较大,区域模式对此同样也有改进,降水高值区主要位于区域南部,并表现出较强的地形强迫特征。区域模式的模拟结果还表明,至21世纪末期,在温室效应作用下,中国东部的气温将明显升高,年平均气温的升高值在2.7~4.0℃之间,其中北部升温大于南部,冬季升温大于夏季。冬季升温表现出明显的随纬度增加而增加的分布型。模拟区域内年平均降水将增加,增加值一般在10%以上,部分地区达到30%。降水增加在夏季较明显,区域内以普遍增加为主,冬季降水自山东半岛至湖南地区将减少,其他地区增加。此外,对夏季高温日数和冬季低温日数及年平均大雨日数的变化也进行了分析。 相似文献
17.
Based on 150-year simulations of a regional climate model, RegCM3, under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario, the effective drought index (EDI) is used to project the future drought change in China. During the baseline period 1986-2005, RegCM3 was found to reliably simulate the spatial pattern of drought over the country. Over the 21st century, the regionally averaged EDI should increase, corresponding to a decrease of drought, while the probability of extreme drought events should increase. Geographically, drought should clearly increase in Northeast China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley, Southwest China, and southern Tibet but decrease in most parts of the rest of the country. 相似文献
18.
全球变暖背景下,极端天气气候事件频发,并表现出群发性、持续性、复合性等特点,不可预测性增加;持续性强降水、极端低温、复合型极端高温干旱、群发性热浪和台风等极端天气气候事件对我国经济社会和可持续发展影响巨大。然而,上述极端天气气候事件的新特征、关键过程和机理尚不完全清楚,重大极端事件的预报预测水平亟待提升。文章首先简要介绍“地球系统与全球变化”重点专项项目“中国极端天气气候事件的形成机理及其预测和归因”的基本情况。项目拟在分析全球变化背景下对我国造成重大影响的极端天气气候事件新特征的基础上,深入研究多尺度海-陆-气耦合过程影响极端天气气候事件的机理,挖掘极端天气气候事件次季节-季节预测的前兆信号;发展动力与物理统计相结合的极端事件预测新方法,研制针对中国极端事件的新一代高分辨率数值预报与检测归因系统。文章重点总结了自2022年12月项目立项至今取得的最新研究成果和进展。 相似文献
19.
未来我国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害变化的数值模拟 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
使用高分辨率区域气候模式（RegCM3）,单向嵌套一个全球模式,对未来我国南方冰雪灾害在IPCC SRES A2情景下的变化进行了数值模拟。结果表明：未来南方地区低温日数整体将减少,但在广东和广西北部部分地区连续低温日数有增加现象;降雪日数和连续降雪日数会减少,但在江西等地降雪量将有所增加,同时强降雪事件在江西等地将增多,引起地面最大积雪深度和最大持续积雪日数的增加;湖南和贵州东部地区冻雨日数会减少,而在青藏高原东麓等地冻雨日数会增加。 相似文献
20.
未来我国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害变化的数值模拟 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
使用高分辨率区域气候模式（RegCM3）,单向嵌套一个全球模式,对未来我国南方冰雪灾害在IPCC SRES A2情景下的变化进行了数值模拟。结果表明：未来南方地区低温日数整体将减少,但在广东和广西北部部分地区连续低温日数有增加现象;降雪日数和连续降雪日数会减少,但在江西等地降雪量将有所增加,同时强降雪事件在江西等地将增多,引起地面最大积雪深度和最大持续积雪日数的增加;湖南和贵州东部地区冻雨日数会减少,而在青藏高原东麓等地冻雨日数会增加。 相似文献