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1.
针对地基光学监测系统对近地小行星在近太阳方向的监测存在盲区的问题,提出了远距离逆行轨道(Distant Retrograde Orbit,DRO)天基光学平台对近地小行星进行跟踪定轨的方法.通过可视性分析,筛选仿真观测数据,利用美国宇航局喷气推进实验室(Jet Propulsion Laboratory,JPL)公布的小行星初始轨道信息对不同轨道类型的目标天体进行轨道确定,将计算结果与参考轨道对比分析.仿真结果表明:在测量精度2角秒,定轨弧长3年的情况下,DRO平台对仿真算例中所选择的近地小行星的定轨精度可以达到几十公里量级,其中Atira型轨道精度可达10公里以内.由此可见,DRO天基平台对近地小行星具有较好的监测能力,定轨精度能实现对目标小行星的精确跟踪,并对其进行轨道预报. 相似文献
2.
近地小行星(10302) 1989 ML和(4660) Nereus作为下一代深空探测的候选目标一直备受关注. 在考虑太阳系主要天体的动力学背景下, 通过计算最大Lyapunov指数(MLE)及MEGNO (Mean Exponential Growth factor of Nearby Orbits)指数讨论它们的稳定性. 同时, 对每个小行星, 在其观测误差范围内按多元正态分布各选取1000个克隆粒子, 通过统计分析显示这两个小行星在10万年内可能的运动范围, 给出半长径-偏心率空间中的出现次数分布图, 并统计小行星与地球或其他大行星之间的密近交汇及碰撞的概率. 此外还对这两个小行星的标称轨道进行长期共振、Kozai共振及平运动共振的动力学分析. 综上得出结论, 1989 ML处在平运动共振主导的区域, 发生密近交汇的概率较小, 从而其轨道相对较稳定; 而Nereus处在地球的密近交汇区域, 轨道极不稳定. 相似文献
3.
近地小行星是一类可能对地球安全造成潜在威胁的太阳系小天体, 目前绝大部分的近地小行星是由地基望远镜发现的, 且数目仍在不断增加. 为了对我国未来开展近地小行星发现监测提供参考和借鉴, 利用国际小行星中心公开的数据库对所有近地小行星首次发现时刻的观测资料开展了多维度统计分析. 发现望远镜探测能力的限制会对近地小行星的发现造成选择效应, 导致不同轨道类型近地小行星发现的相对比例逐年变化且与直径有关. 另外, 结合数值模拟获得的轨道数据, 对近地小行星首次发现时的观测场景进行了还原, 获得了发现时刻近地小行星位置在不同天球坐标系的分布, 分析了其分布特征与季节、测站纬度和小行星直径的依赖关系. 最后, 通过分析数据定量考察了太阳、月球和银道面对近地小行星发现的影响, 发现地基望远镜一般难以发现来自太阳方向90$^\circ$范围内直径140m以下的近地小行星, 并且随着小行星直径的减小该限制范围也将变大; 月光污染对近地小行星发现的影响也非常显著, 望月前后几天的观测限制可导致约29%的目标无法被发现, 而且分析表明农历上半月发现的目标一般比下半月发现的更难以被跟踪观测; 银道面特别是银心方向会对近地小行星发现产生影响, 使得黄道面附近存在与季节相关的观测``盲区''. 相似文献
4.
《天文学报》2015,(2)
在小行星探测任务中,航天器轨道设计需要充分考虑到小行星的非球形引力场的影响.太阳系中大部分小行星具有形状不规则、密度不均匀的特点,因此,在没有绕飞轨道数据的情况下,精确计算其引力场非常困难.利用不规则小行星的多面体模型,采用体积离散方法通过直接积分计算小行星引力场球谐系数和表面重力场分布情况.将该方法与多面体方法进行了比较,并以(433)Eros为例,通过该方法计算得到的结果与NEAR(Near-Earth Asteroid Rendezvous)探测器的轨道数据反演结果比较,C20项误差不超过2%,使用该方法对我国小行星探测任务拟探测的(1996)FG3小行星的重力场进行了计算.以嫦娥二号探测器飞越的(4179)Toutatis小行星为例,结合相应的雷达观测数据提供的小行星形状模型,计算其表面引力势情况,为通过飞越任务获取的光学图像分析其表壤的分布、流向等提供了相应的理论依据.该方法适用于密度不均匀天体,可为小行星探测任务轨道设计和着陆提供可靠的小行星引力场数据. 相似文献
5.
为更明确近地小行星撞击地球威胁的监测预警需求, 提出了"短期威胁小行星"的概念, 即未来100yr内可能对地球造成撞击威胁且等效直径大于10m的近地小行星. 以目前已发现的756颗短期威胁小行星为基础, 分析短期威胁小行星的轨道分布特点, 研究显示其与一般近地小行星的轨道分布存在差异, 短期威胁小行星的轨道半长轴更集中于1au, 轨道面更集中于黄道面. 基于近地小行星的数量模型, 初步建立了短期威胁小行星的数量估计模型, 并预估了未来100yr内存在撞击可能的短期威胁小行星的总体数量. 短期威胁小行星的特定研究对制定近地小行星搜巡监测策略有重要意义. 相似文献
6.
当测轨数据误差不服从正态分布时,传统的最小二乘(LSE)轨道确定方法将不是最优的.为了获得高精度的定轨结果,一种可行的策略是采用基于最小p范数(Lp)的轨道确定方法.通过分析Lp估计的相关性质,得出普通Lp估计不具有良好的抗差性的结论.为抑制模型误差和异常值的影响,提出了基于数据深度加权的稳健最小p范数估计方法,并证明了相关性质,得出了其崩溃点可以达到1/2的结论.最后,通过残差分析和矩估计法自适应估计相关参数,使得估计达到最大效率.以天基空间目标监视系统为背景进行了仿真试验.结果表明,当观测数据存在系统误差或异常值时,或者当目标动力学模型存在误差或者天基观测平台存在系统误差时,即使观测数据服从正态分布,LSE也不是最优的,在这种意义下自适应稳健Lp估计轨道确定方法比传统轨道确定方法更加稳健,定轨精度也更高. 相似文献
7.
目标的完备性搜索是开展近地小行星预警和防御的前提. 为量化评价近地小行星观测效能, 提高监测设备使用效率, 提出一种综合望远镜参数和测站天文条件的观测效能评估方法. 以观测目标信噪比作为检测指标, 设定检测条件形成目标检测方法, 定义评价指标用于评估近地小行星观测效能. 再基于近地小行星轨道数据和尺度分布模型, 建立近地小行星轨道数据模拟样本库. 最后选取中国科学院紫金山天文台盱眙观测站和中国科学院国家天文台冷湖观测台址, 仿真分析近地天体望远镜对直径0.01--30km近地小行星的观测效能, 结果表明: 不考虑两观测站年有效观测时间差异, 近地天体望远镜在冷湖观测全尺寸模拟样本的效能比在盱眙提高了5.21倍, 其中对1km以上直径目标的观测效能相当, 对1km以下直径目标的观测效能差异开始显现, 对0.1km以下直径目标冷湖优势更显著. 相似文献
8.
木星探测轨道分析与设计 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
研究了与木星探测相关的轨道设计问题.重点关注木星探测轨道与火星、金星等类地行星探测轨道的不同及由此带来的轨道设计难点.首先分析了绕木星探测任务轨道的选择.建立近似模型讨论了向木星飞行需要借助多颗行星的多次引力辅助,对地木转移的多种行星引力辅助序列,使用粒子群算法搜索了2020年至2025年之间的燃料最省飞行方案并对比得到了向木星飞行较好的引力辅助方式为金星-地球-地球引力辅助.结合多任务探测,研究了航天器在飞向木星途中穿越主小行星带飞越探测小行星的轨道设计.最后,给出2023年发射完整的结合引力辅助与小行星多次飞越的木星探测轨道设计算例. 相似文献
9.
10.
北美防空司令部(North American Aerospace Defense Command, NORAD)发布的双行根数(Two Line Element, TLE)是广大航天工作者最常用的轨道根数,与其对应的轨道模型是SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4)解析模型.由于TLE中并没有包含相应的轨道精度信息,编目轨道的应用范围受到很大的限制.基于Space-Track网站发布的历史TLE数据和配套的SGP4/SDP4动力学模型,采用定轨标预报的方法统计并生成了大量目标轨道的预报误差,通过对预报轨道的时间区间划分给出了每个目标的预报误差随预报时间变化的拟合系数,并进一步对不同类型轨道预报误差的演化规律和特征进行了分类讨论,给出了4种轨道类型目标的轨道预报误差随时间演化的平均解析模型,为拓展双行根数的应用提供有价值的参考. 相似文献
11.
《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2021,45(3):402-411
As an Earth co-orbital asteroid, (469219) Kamoòalewa is a near earth object (NEO) with high value of research, and one of the targets explored by the first Chinese asteroid exploration mission. Given its orbit characteristics, we build a refined dynamical model for this asteroid, in which the effects induced by nonspherical gravitational fields of the Sun, the Earth, and the Moon are combined. On the basis of the dynamical model of the asteroid (469219) Kamoòalewa, its orbit is determined with optical data from 2004 to 2018 available on the Minor Planet Center (MPC) database. The root mean square error of post-fit residuals is about 0.2 arc second (comparable with that of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)/Horizons), and the post-fit residuals of optical observations in 2004 are decreased. At the end, we implement error analysis on the asteroid (469219) Kamoòalewa's orbit in detail, and also predict its orbit error at the time interval between 2020 and 2025. 相似文献
12.
T. A. Vinogradova O. M. Kochetova Yu. A. Chernetenko V. A. Shor E. I. Yagudina 《Solar System Research》2008,42(4):271-280
The results of improving the orbit accuracy for the asteroid Apophis and the circumstances of its approach to Earth in 2029 are described. Gravitational perturbations from all of the major planets and Pluto, Ceres, Pallas, and Vesta are taken into account in the equations of motion of the asteroid. Relativistic perturbations from the Sun and perturbations due to the oblateness of the Sun and Earth and due to the light pressure are also included in the model. Perturbations from the Earth and Moon are considered separately. The coordinates of the perturbing bodies are calculated using DE405. The phase correction and the gravitational deflection of light are taken into account. The numerical integration of the equations of motion and equations in variations is performed by the 15th-order Everhart method. The error of the numerical integration over the 2005–2029 interval, estimated using forward and backward computations, is not more than 3 × 10?11 AU. Improved coordinates and velocities at epoch JD2454200.5 (April 10, 2007) were obtained applying the weighted leastsquares fit. For the period from March 15, 2004, to August 16, 2006, 989 optical and 7 radar observations were used. The resulting system represents the optical observations with an error of 0.37 (66 conditional equations were rejected). The residuals of the radar observations are an order, or more, smaller than their errors. The system of Apophis’ elements and the estimates of their precision obtained in this study are in perfect agreement with the results published by other authors. The minimum Apophis-Earth distance is about 38 200 km on April 13, 2029. This estimate agrees to within 20 km with those calculated based on other published systems of elements. The effect of some model components on the minimum distance is estimated. 相似文献
13.
LAGEOS II perigee rate and eccentricity vector excitations residuals and the Yarkovsky-Schach effect
David M. Lucchesi Ignazio Ciufolini José I. Andrés Roberto Peron Ron Noomen 《Planetary and Space Science》2004,52(8):699-710
We have analysed LAGEOS II perigee rate and eccentricity vector excitation residuals over a period of about 7.8 years, adjusting and computing the satellite orbit with the full set of dynamical models included in the GEODYN II software code. The long-term behaviour of these orbital residuals appears to be characterised by several distinct frequencies which are a clear signature of the Yarkovsky-Schach perturbing effect. This non-gravitational perturbation is not included in the GEODYN II models for the orbit determination and analysis. Through an independent numerical analysis, and using the new LOSSAM model to represent the spin-axis behaviour of the satellite, we propagated the Yarkovsky-Schach effect on LAGEOS II perigee rate and compared the results obtained with the orbital residuals. We have thus been able to satisfactorily fit the amplitude of the Yarkovsky-Schach effect to the observed residuals. Our approach here has proven very successful with very positive results. We have been able to obtain a fractional reduction of about 40% of the post-fit rms with respect to the pre-fit value. When analysing the eccentricity vector residuals, we have been able to obtain a better result in the case of the real component, with a fractional reduction of the post-fit rms of about 49% of the initial value. The analysis of the effect's imaginary component in the eccentricity vector rate is more complicated and deserves additional scrutiny. In this case we need a deeper study which includes the analysis of other unmodelled and mismodelled effects acting on the imaginary component. The study performed in this paper will be of significant relevance not only for the geophysical applications involving LAGEOS II orbit analysis, but also for a refined re-analysis of the general relativistic precession produced by the Earth angular momentum, i.e., the Lense-Thirring effect. 相似文献
14.
The OSIRIS‐REx target asteroid (101955) Bennu: Constraints on its physical,geological, and dynamical nature from astronomical observations 
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下载免费PDF全文 D. S. Lauretta A. E. Bartels M. A. Barucci E. B. Bierhaus R. P. Binzel W. F. Bottke H. Campins S. R. Chesley B. C. Clark B. E. Clark E. A. Cloutis H. C. Connolly M. K. Crombie M. Delbó J. P. Dworkin J. P. Emery D. P. Glavin V. E. Hamilton C. W. Hergenrother C. L. Johnson L. P. Keller P. Michel M. C. Nolan S. A. Sandford D. J. Scheeres A. A. Simon B. M. Sutter D. Vokrouhlický K. J. Walsh 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2015,50(4):834-849
We review the results of an extensive campaign to determine the physical, geological, and dynamical properties of asteroid (101955) Bennu. This investigation provides information on the orbit, shape, mass, rotation state, radar response, photometric, spectroscopic, thermal, regolith, and environmental properties of Bennu. We combine these data with cosmochemical and dynamical models to develop a hypothetical timeline for Bennu's formation and evolution. We infer that Bennu is an ancient object that has witnessed over 4.5 Gyr of solar system history. Its chemistry and mineralogy were established within the first 10 Myr of the solar system. It likely originated as a discrete asteroid in the inner Main Belt approximately 0.7–2 Gyr ago as a fragment from the catastrophic disruption of a large (approximately 100‐km), carbonaceous asteroid. It was delivered to near‐Earth space via a combination of Yarkovsky‐induced drift and interaction with giant‐planet resonances. During its journey, YORP processes and planetary close encounters modified Bennu's spin state, potentially reshaping and resurfacing the asteroid. We also review work on Bennu's future dynamical evolution and constrain its ultimate fate. It is one of the most Potentially Hazardous Asteroids with an approximately 1‐in‐2700 chance of impacting the Earth in the late 22nd century. It will most likely end its dynamical life by falling into the Sun. The highest probability for a planetary impact is with Venus, followed by the Earth. There is a chance that Bennu will be ejected from the inner solar system after a close encounter with Jupiter. OSIRIS‐REx will return samples from the surface of this intriguing asteroid in September 2023. 相似文献
15.
Martin Connors Christian Veillet Ramon Brasser Paul Wiegert Paul Chodas Seppo Mikkola Kimmo Innanen 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2004,39(8):1251-1255
Abstract— The newly discovered asteroid 2003 YN107 is currently a quasi‐satellite of the Earth, making a satellite‐like orbit of high inclination with apparent period of one year. The term quasi‐satellite is used since these large orbits are not completely closed, but rather perturbed portions of the asteroid's orbit around the Sun. Due to its extremely Earth‐like orbit, this asteroid is influenced by Earth's gravity to remain within 0.1 AU of the Earth for approximately 10 years (1997 to 2006). Prior to this, it had been on a horseshoe orbit closely following Earth's orbit for several hundred years. It will re‐enter such an orbit, and make one final libration of 123 years, after which it will have a close interaction with the Earth and transition to a circulating orbit. Chaotic effects limit our ability to determine the origin or fate of this object. 相似文献
16.
Steven J. OSTRO R. Scott HUDSON Lance A. M. BENNER Michael C. NOLAN Jon D. GIORGINI Daniel J. SCHEERES Raymond F. JURGENS Randy ROSE 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2001,36(9):1225-1236
Abstract— Goldstone and Arecibo delay‐Doppler radar imaging of asteroid 1998 ML 14 shortly after its discovery reveals a 1 km diameter spheroid with prominent topography on one side and subdued topography on the other. The object's radar and optical properties are typical for S‐class near‐Earth asteroids. The gravitational slopes of a shape model derived from the images and assumed to have a uniform density are shallow, exceeding 30° over only 4% of the surface. If 1998 ML14's density distribution is uniform, then its orbital environment is similar to a planetary body with a spheroidal gravitational field and is relatively stable. Integration of a radar‐refined orbit reveals that the 1998 apparition was the asteroid's closest approach to Earth since at least 1100 and until 2283, when it approaches to within 2.4 lunar distances. Outside of that time interval, orbit uncertainties based on the present set of observations preclude reliable prediction. 相似文献
17.
SONG Ye-zhi HUANG Yong HU Xiao-gong LI Pei-jia CAO Jian-feng 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2014
It is known that the dynamical orbit determination is the most common way to get the precise orbits of spacecraft. However, it is hard to build up the precise dynamical model of spacecraft sometimes. In order to solve this problem, the technique of the orbit determination with the B-spline approximation method based on the theory of function approximation is presented in this article. In order to verify the effectiveness of this method, simulative orbit determinations in the cases of LEO (Low Earth Orbit), MEO (Medium Earth Orbit), and HEO (Highly Eccentric Orbit) satellites are performed, and it is shown that this method has a reliable accuracy and stable solution. The approach can be performed in both the conventional celestial coordinate system and the conventional terrestrial coordinate system. The spacecraft's position and velocity can be calculated directly with the B-spline approximation method, it needs not to integrate the dynamical equations, nor to calculate the state transfer matrix, thus the burden of calculations in the orbit determination is reduced substantially relative to the dynamical orbit determination method. The technique not only has a certain theoretical significance, but also can serve as a conventional algorithm in the spacecraft orbit determination. 相似文献
18.
Martin Connors Paul Chodas Seppo Mikkola Paul Wiegert Christian Veillet Kimmo Innanen 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2002,37(10):1435-1441
Abstract— The newly discovered asteroid 2002 AA29 moves in a very Earth‐like orbit that relative to Earth has a unique horseshoe shape and allows transitions to a quasi‐satellite state. This is the first body known to be in a simple heliocentric horseshoe orbit, moving along its parent planet's orbit. It is similarly also the first true co‐orbital object of Earth, since other asteroids in 1:1 resonance with Earth have orbits very dissimilar from that of our planet. When a quasi‐satellite, it remains within 0.2 AU of the Earth for several decades. 2002 AA29 is the first asteroid known to exhibit this behavior. 2002 AA29 introduces an important new class of objects offering potential targets for space missions and clues to asteroid orbit transfer evolution. 相似文献
19.
The orbital evolutions of the asteroid 3040 Kozai and model asteroids with similar orbits have been investigated. Their osculating orbits for an epoch 1991 December 10 were numerically integrated forward within the interval of 20,000 years, using a dynamical model of the solar system consisting of all inner planets, Jupiter, and Saturn.The orbit of the asteroid Kozai is stable. Its motion is affected only by long-period perturbations of planets. With change of the argument of perihelion of the asteroid Kozai, the evolution of the model asteroid orbits changes essentially, too. The model orbits with the argument of perihelion changed by the order of 10% show that asteroids with such orbital parameters may approach the Earth orbit, while asteroids with larger changes may even cross it, at least after 10,000 years. Long-term orbital evolution of asteroids with these orbital parameters is very sensitive on their angular elements. 相似文献