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1.
应用Catch-MSY模型评估印度洋蓝枪鱼资源   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
Catch-MSY模型可仅依靠渔获量数据进行渔业资源评估，在数据缺乏状况下能暂时替代标准资源评估模型。本研究以印度洋蓝枪鱼(Makaira nigricans)为例，根据有、无信息的内禀增长率r和环境容纳量K的先验分布，设立15组情景进行模型灵敏度分析、资源评估和预测。结果表明，参数r和K呈强烈的负相关，而最大可持续产量(Maximum Sustainable Yield，MSY)与参数r呈正相关；数据时间序列长度对评估结果影响有限，而模型对起止年渔获量较为敏感。资源状况评估表明，印度洋蓝枪鱼资源生物量状况良好，即B2015/BMSY大于1；而开发状况除其中两种情景外，均为过度捕捞，即F2015/FMSY大于1。资源预测表明，为使未来10年内B/BMSY>1的概率超过50%，需将渔获量缩减至当前渔获量的90%(13.86 kt)；考虑到该模型在数据缺乏状况下会更加保守，若将当前渔获量的100%～110%(15.40～16.94 kt)设为管理目标，则未来5年内B/BMSY >1的概率超过50%。  相似文献   

2.
杨春蕙  刘琦  王迎宾 《海洋与湖沼》2022,53(5):1219-1224
当渔业资源出现衰退时,加强资源增殖放流以养护渔业资源、提高渔业产量对于渔业资源可持续利用具有重要意义;与此同时,增殖放流的实施会对基于资源开发与管理的评估的结果产生影响。基于2001~2015年间东海北部海域三疣梭子蟹(Portunus trituberculatus)渔业数据,采用增殖剩余产量模型,对东海北部海域三疣梭子蟹的最大可持续产量(MSY)及取得MSY时所需捕捞努力量(EMSY)和原存生物量(BMSY)进行了评估,并与传统Schaefer模型评估结果进行了比较。结果表明,当年增殖放流量约在3×106~95×106尾之间时,三疣梭子蟹年产量逐渐增加, MSY在14.2×104 t和14.6×104 t之间, EMSY基本在15×104吨位左右。增殖放流量增加,其对应的MSY也越高,能承受的EMSY也越高(从15×104~15.4×104吨位之间),相反BMSY则减小(从188.4×104 t降至186.6×104 t)。与传统的Schaefer模型评估结果相比,增殖剩余产量模型由于考虑了增殖放流生物量的因素,得到了MSY和EMSY有所增加,而BMSY有所下降的结论。研究结果有望为该研究海域三疣梭子蟹可持续地捕捞、放流与管理提供科学依据。  相似文献   

3.
There is global interest in providing scientific advice on optimal harvesting of all commercially exploited fish stocks. Nevertheless, many commercially important stocks lack analytical assessments. Therefore, we evaluate a data-moderate stock assessment method: the stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT). The method was applied to two Namibian stocks: (i) the data-rich Cape monkfish Lophius vomerinus, where results are compared to a new data-rich assessment using a state–space assessment model (SAM); and (ii) the data-moderate west coast sole Austroglossus microlepis, which is an important bycatch species in the Cape monkfish fishery, but currently unassessed. The information available to the data-moderate assessment is total commercial catch, commercial catch per unit effort (CPUE), and survey CPUE. SPiCT and SAM gave largely consistent estimates of relative fishing mortality (F/FMSY) and relative exploitable biomass (B/BMSY) for the Cape monkfish stock, although with some discrepancies. Differences in the biomass estimates between the two assessments suggest that further investigation is required to understand the cause, and that some caution is necessary when considering the biomass of the stock. SPiCT shows that the west coast sole may be overexploited, although the confidence bounds were too wide for a firm conclusion. Similarity in the estimates of F/FMSY for Cape monkfish in recent years, using SPiCT relative to SAM, likewise indicates the suitability of SPiCT for managing west coast sole.  相似文献   

4.
基于Schaefer模型的东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源评估和管理   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
东南太平洋茎柔鱼(Dosidicus gigas)是世界范围内最重要的经济头足类之一,也是我国鱿钓渔船的重要捕捞对象。本文根据2003—2012年中国大陆的渔业数据和FAO统计的东南太平洋茎柔鱼产量数据,利用Schaefer模型,基于贝叶斯统计方法,分基准方案和敏感性分析方案对东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源进行评估,并对其管理策略做了风险分析。结果表明,年渔获量和CPUE数据为贝叶斯资源评估模型提供了足够多的信息。2003—2012年捕捞死亡率低于目标参考点F0.1,渔获量小于最大可持续产量,资源量大于目标参考点Bmsy,资源状况良好,未遭受过度捕捞。在基准方案下,最大可持续产量为142.9万吨,维持最大可持续产量的资源量为214.7万吨,此时的捕捞死亡率为0.682;在敏感性分析方案下,最大的可持续产量为152.5万吨,维持最大可持续产量的资源量为229.6万吨,此时的捕捞死亡率为0.691。决策分析和风险分析表明,当捕获率设定为0.3以下时,资源能够得到较好的养护,资源崩溃的可能性很低。将捕获率设定在0.3左右是最适的管理策略,此时的持续产量为99万吨左右。  相似文献   

5.
Time-series of catch per unit effort (CPUE) for the Cape hake stocks demarcated by ICSEAF in the Benguela region show steady declines until the late 1970s, followed by slowly increasing trends once catch levels were reduced. Analysis of these data by means of a dynamic form of the production model is discussed briefly, and it is shown that sustainable-yield-determining parameters could not be estimated with any reasonable degree of precision prior to the data contrast provided by the change in CPUE trends in the late 1970s. In general, an f0.1 harvesting strategy has been applied to allow recovery of these resources from their depleted levels of the late 1970s. Analysis indicates that, except for ICSEAF Division 1.6, these stocks have now reached their equilibrium biomass levels under such a strategy. The question thus arises whether f0.1 is the appropriate long-term strategy, i.e. to what extent current catches (or catch level increments) should be "traded" for future CPUE improvements. This is examined by means of Clark's bioeconomic model, which indicates that strategies corresponding to a lower fishing effort than that for f0.1 are economically more advantageous. The precision with which the shape of the surplus production function can be estimated is poor; the implications of this for the choice of an appropriate harvesting strategy are discussed briefly. It is suggested that, as an initial amended strategy for most of these stocks, catch levels should be pegged at their f0.1 equilibrium levels once the corresponding biomass level is exceeded. However, for Division 1.6, a change from an f0.1 to an f0.2 strategy is proposed. The economic advantages of this strategy are illustrated  相似文献   

6.
It is important to find a reliable method to estimate maximum sustainable yield(MSY) or total allowable catch(TAC) for fishery management, especially when the data availability is limited which is a case in China. A recently developed method(CMSY) is a data-poor method, which requires only catch data, resilience and exploitation history at the first and final years of the catch data. CMSY was used in this study to estimate the biological reference points for Largehead hairtail(Trichiurus lepturus, Temminck and Schlegel) in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, based on the fishery data from China Fishery Statistical Year Books during 1986 to 2012. Additionally,Bayesian state-space Schaefer surplus production model(BSM) and the classical surplus production models(Schaefer and Fox) performed by software CEDA and ASPIC, were also projected in this study to compare with the performance of CMSY. The estimated MSYs from all models are about 19.7×104–27.0×104 t, while CMSY and BSM yielded more reasonable population parameter estimates(the intrinsic population growth rate and the carrying capacity). The biological reference points of B/BMSY smaller than 1.0, while F/FMSY higher than 1.0 revealed an over-exploitation of the fishery, indicating that more conservative management strategies are required for Largehead hairtail fishery.  相似文献   

7.
The present study assessed trends in resource-use, partitioning and management in the Ungwana Bay fishery, Kenya, using surplus production models. The fishery is one of East Africa’s important marine fisheries sustaining a bottom trawl commercial fishery and a resident-migrant artisanal fishery. Two models: Schaefer (1954) and Gulland and Fox (1975) were applied to catch-effort data over a 21-year period to model maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and optimal effort (fMSY) to examine the status of resource exploitation and provide reference points for sustainable management. In the artisanal fishery, model MSYs range from 392-446 t to 1283-1473 t for shrimps and fish respectively compared to mean annual landings of 60 t for shrimp and 758 t for fish. These landings represent <50% of the model MSYs suggesting under exploitation in the sub-sector. Moreover, current fishing effort applied stands at <0.5 fMSY. On the other hand, mean annual landings in bottom trawl commercial fishery, at about 330 t for shrimps and 583 t and fish represent about 90% of the model MSYs of 352-391 t and 499-602 t for shrimps and fish respectively. Therefore, the bottom trawl commercial fishery is likely under full exploitation. Similarly, the current effort is estimated at >0.7 fMSY. Resource management in the bay is faced with numerous problems including resource-use conflicts, poor economic conditions in artisanal fishery, poor legislation, and inadequate research augmented by poor reporting systems for catch-effort statistics. Thus, the fishery lacks clearly defined exploitation regimes. Fisheries research and assessment of the marine resources are important for sustainability of the fishery. Moreover, income diversification in the poverty ridden artisanal fishery would go a long way in addressing resource-use conflicts and use of deleterious fishing methods in the sub-sector. Borrowing from the successes of the Japanese community-based fisheries resource management (CBFRM) which has easily resolved numerous fisheries management issues in coastal small-scale commercial fisheries, and the beach management unit (BMU) system which has been applied to the artisanal fisheries of south coast Kenya with enormous benefits, it is envisaged that a hybrid CBFRM-BMU system presents the best approach to sustainable resource-use in the Ungwana Bay fishery.  相似文献   

8.
ABSTRACT

Having a reliable ocean carbon flux (f(CO2)) retrieval model is essential to monitoring the global carbon cycle and to evaluating the climate change. Remote sensing techniques provide alternatives for f(CO2) retrieval with its advantages of wide area surveys and real-time monitoring. In the present study, a semianalytical f(CO2) estimation model was developed based on remote sensing data and in situ measurements in the Chinese Bohai Sea. The used model performed well (R2?=?0.84) in deriving f(CO2) based on the collected remotely sensed dataset, including sea surface temperature, estimated sea surface salinity, wind speed, Chl-a concentration. The results showed that the distribution of partial pressure of carbon dioxide (p(CO2)) and f(CO2) varied spatially and temporally during the 12 months in 2009. The spatial fluctuations of p(CO2) and f(CO2) in Bohai Sea in summer and autumn were more obvious than that in Spring and Winter. The highest values of p(CO2) and f(CO2) generally appeared in coastal regions. Moreover, the average f(CO2) value of the 12 months showed that the Bohai Sea performed as a weak carbon source in 2009. The results provided technical and data support for carbon management and climate negotiation in the Bohai Sea.  相似文献   

9.
During 1997, considerable scientific differences arose about the status of the Namibian hake (Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus) resource, and as to whether the hake Total Allowable Catch (TAC) should be substantially decreased or increased. These differences revolved primarily around whether or not abundance estimates from the swept-area trawl surveys by the Norwegian research vessel Dr Fridtjof Nansen should be considered as reliable measures of biomass in absolute (as distinct from relative) terms. The paper relates the computations underlying the Interim Management Procedure (IMP) approach that was put forward at that time as a basis to resolve this impasse. The anticipated performance, in terms of catch and risk of resource depletion, of a number of simple candidate IMPs for the Namibian hake resource is evaluated. The IMPs depend on two parameters, whose values are to be chosen by decision-makers, and adjust the TAC up or down from one year to the next according to whether trends in recent commercial catch rate and survey indices of abundance are positive or negative. Performances are evaluated across the then current wide range argued for resource abundance and status. Trade-offs in performance across the candidates considered are discussed. One of the candidates was subsequently selected by a joint meeting of scientists, industry and Ministry officials in February 1998 and served as the basis for scientific recommendations for the TAC for the hake resource for the following three years.  相似文献   

10.
This study presents an example of horse mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) stock to demonstrate that marine environmental factors are important in stock assessment for the new Korean Total Allowable Catch (TAC)-based fisheries management system. The estimated survival rate (S) of horse mackerel ranged from 0.25 to 0.36. The instantaneous coefficient of natural mortality (M) was 0.48/year, and the age at first capture was 0.83 year. Annual biomass of horse mackerel in Korean waters was estimated by a biomass-based cohort analysis using annual catch in weight at age during 1965–1995. Yield-per-recruit and spawning biomass-per-recruit were estimated under various harvest strategies at Fmax, F0.1, F30% and F40%. A method for estimating acceptable biological catch (ABC) is proposed for dealing with the large differences in the quality and quantity of information and data available. Using recruitment of horse mackerel estimated from various spawner–recruitment relationship models combined with salinity, volume transport, and zooplankton biomass as environmental factors, the ABC under the best information available was estimated to range from 3100 to 3800 mt.  相似文献   

11.
人放天养的中华绒螯蟹(Eriocheir sinensis)质量好、个体大、耐运输、肉质鲜美,是优质高档蟹的代表,但产量严重不足。建立一套湖泊中华绒螯蟹自然生产潜力估算的模型来估算湖泊中华绒螯蟹自然生产潜力,确定放养量,以达到湖泊中华绒螯蟹稳产已迫在眉睫。本文根据近20年来作者对湖泊中华绒螯蟹放养的经验,结合灰估理论,提出蟹自然生产潜力:W=[B1K1C1/R1+B2K2C2/R2]·(B1+B2)2/B12+B2和蟹种放养量:W0=P0[B1K1C1/R1+B2K2C2/R2]·U/P估算模型,并与生产实践进行求证。其结果与生产实践存在较好的一致性。其估算结果可作为指导湖泊中华绒螯蟹生产的依据。  相似文献   

12.
The species composition and biomass of the phytoplankton, as well as the hydrophysical and hydrochemical characteristics of the water masses, were estimated for different areas of the White Sea at 24 stations for the period of August 26 to September 3, 2007. The micronutrient concentrations were lower compared to the average long-term values for the summer period. The total biomass of phytoplankton (B t ) varied from 87 to 1914 mg C/m2. For most of the studied sites, B t was low; dinoflagellates were the most abundant species. Diatoms dominated in the areas of elevated hydrodynamic activity, i.e., in the Gorlo (vertical mixing of the water layers), in intrusions of the Gorlo water masses into the basin of the White Sea, and in the peripheral areas of the Dvina outflow current. The B t was also the highest in the listed areas.  相似文献   

13.
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) has been adopted as the primary management goal by several inter-government fishery organisations, and in the United States it forms the cornerstone of federal fishery management policy. MSY became a strategic goal for the management of Europe's fisheries following the resolution of the World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002 to restore or maintain fish stocks to MSY levels by 2015. Calculation of MSY requires information on the rate at which biomass increases through growth and reproduction and the rate at which it decreases through natural mortality and fishing. Population-selection, which measures the age-specific rates of fishing mortality, is a key component for the calculation of yield as a function of fishing mortality and MSY, yet selection rarely features in either management advice or sensitivity analyses. Effective management of selection can potentially lead to increases in long-term yield, but before taking action managers need to understand what long-term increases are possible. Using a hypothetical stock, equilibrium yield curves were calculated for three scenarios in which the shape of the population-selection curve varied. The results illustrate the potential extent of variation in MSY and the corresponding fishing mortality required to achieve it (FMSY) that may result solely due to changes in population selectivity. They show that relatively subtle changes in selection can produce substantial differences in MSY and FMSY. The results are discussed with specific reference to the development of long-term management targets and the mechanisms by which managers might try to influence population-selection.  相似文献   

14.
西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼，Illex argentinus，巴塔哥尼亚南部群体是重要的经济种类。海洋环境因子在柔鱼资源分布中起着重要的作用。本研究利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估2000-2010年的滑柔鱼的资源量。假设海洋环境因子（滑柔鱼产卵场最适宜海表温度占比）影响动态产量模型的参数K，DIC值表明在正态分布和均匀分布下均是基于环境因子的评估模型优于基本的动态产量模型。阿根廷滑柔鱼的最大可持续产量（MSY）在351600吨到685 100吨之间，资源生物量在1322400吨到1 803 000吨之间，其捕捞死亡系数均小于F0.1和FMSY，资源处在良好状态，没有遭受过度捕捞。本研究为应用环境因子在柔鱼类的资源评估与管理提中供了科学的参考方法。  相似文献   

15.
Laboratory measurements of all four CO2 parameters [fCO2 ( = fugacity of CO2), pH, TCO2 ( = total dissolved inorganic carbon), and TA ( = total alkalinity)] were made on the same sample of Gulf Stream seawater (S = 35) as a function of temperature (5–35 °C) and the ratio of TA/TCO2 (X) (1.0–1.2). Overall the measurements were consistent to ±8 μ atm in fCO2, ± 0.004 in pH, ± 3 μ mol kg−1 in TCO2, and ± 3 μ mol kg−1 in TA with the thermodynamic constants of Goyet and Poisson (1989), Roy et al. (1993), and Millero (1995). Deviations between the measured pH, TCO2, TA and those calculated from various input combinations increase with increasing X when the same constants are used. This trend in the deviations indicates that the uncertainties in pK2 become important with increasing X (surface waters), but are negligible for samples with the lower X (deep waters). This trend is < 5 μ mol kg−1 when the pK2 values of Lee and Millero (1995) are used.The overall probable error of the calculated fCO2 due to uncertainties in the accuracy of the parameters (pH, TCO2, TA, pK0, pk1, and pK2) is ± 1.2%, which is similar to the differences between the measured values and those calculated using the thermodynamic constants of Millero (1995).The calculated values of pK1, (from fCO2-TCO2-TA) agree to within ± 0.004 compared to the results of Dickson and Millero (1987), Goyet and Poisson (1989), Roy et al. (1993), and Millero (1995) over the same experimental conditions. The calculated values of pK2 (from pH-TCO2-TA) are in good agreement (± 0.004) with the results of Lee and Millero (1995) and also in reasonable agreement (± 0.008) with the results of Goyet and Poisson (1989), Roy et al. (1993), and Millero (1995). The salinity dependence of our derived values of pK1 and pK2, (S = 35) can be estimated using the equations determined by Millero (1995).  相似文献   

16.
Three important developments in resource assessment and management during the period of the Benguela Ecology Programme are discussed. The first is the recognition of the limited information content for assessment purposes of the available data for many of the Benguela's major pelagic and demersal resources. This has meant that management measures for these resources could attempt no more than to maintain the status quo, rather than to achieve "optimal" utilization. Secondly, a post mortem on the commercial extinction of the kingklip suggests a need to consider Bayesian methods as a means to incorporate additional information into stock assessments. Finally, changes to the management approaches for the hake and anchovy fisheries are argued to have been particular successes, notwithstanding the recent heavily reduced Total Allowable Catch (TAC) for the latter resource. "Management procedures" have been developed and simulation-tested for these two resources. The implications of this approach for the future basis, whereby TACs are set for South Africa's fisheries, are discussed.  相似文献   

17.
Numerical prediction of performance of submerged breakwaters   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The results of a numerical model study on the transmission characteristics of a submerged breakwater are presented. Study aimed to determine the effect of depth of submergence, crest width, initial wave conditions and material properties on the transmission characteristics of the submerged breakwater. The results highlight the optimum crest width of the breakwater and optimum clear spacing between two breakwaters. A submerged permeable breakwater with ds/d=0.5, p=0.3 and f=1.0, reduces the transmission coefficient by about 10% than the impermeable breakwater. The results indicates an optimum width ratio of B/d=0.75 for achieving minimum transmission. By restricting the effective width ratio of the series of breakwaters to 0.75, studies were conducted to determine the effect of clear spacing between breakwaters on transmission coefficient, suggesting an optimum clear spacing of w/b=2.00 to obtain Kt below 0.6.  相似文献   

18.
Experimental investigations on perforated hollow piles in two rows were conducted in a two dimensional wave flume. The influence of water depth, incident wave steepness, clear spacing between the piles and the spacing of pile rows on transmission coefficient have been studied. The effect of staggering of piles in rows is investigated. The results are also compared with the results of experiments on piles without perforations. The investigations have revealed that perforated piles attenuate more wave energy than non-perforated piles. The transmission coefficient Kt decreases as the wave steepness increases for both non-perforated and perforated piles. For non-perforated piles as relative clear spacing between the piles (b/D) decreases, for waves of higher steepness, Kt decreases while for perforated piles as b/D decreases, Kt is decreasing for all the steepness considered. As the relative clear spacing between the pile rows (B/D) increases Kt initially decreases till B/D is around one and later it starts increasing for both non-perforated and perforated piles. Staggering of piles has little effect on Kt. It is also found that water depth has insignificant influence on transmission coefficient at higher steepness for both perforated and non-perforated piles. Wave period alone does not directly influence transmission coefficient Kt.  相似文献   

19.
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20.
The conditional acid dissociation constants (pKa′) of two sulfonephthalein dyes, thymol blue (TB) and m-cresol purple (mCP), were assessed throughout the estuarine salinity range (0<S<40) using a tris/tris–HCl buffer and spectrophotometric measurement. The salinity dependence of the pKa′ of both dyes was fitted to the equations (25 °C, total proton pH scale, mol kg soln−1):
The estimated accuracy of pH measurements using these calculated pKa′ values is considered to be comparable to that possible with careful use of a glass electrode (±0.01 pH unit) but spectrophotometric measurements in an estuary have the significant advantage that it is not necessary to calibrate an electrode at different salinities. pH was measured in an estuary over a tidal cycle with a precision of ±0.0005 pH unit at high (S>30) salinity, and ±0.002 pH unit at low (S<5) salinity. The pH increased rapidly in the lower salinity ranges (0<S<15) but less rapidly at higher salinities.  相似文献   

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