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1.
Research in developing countries concerning the relationship of weather and climate conditions with tourism shows a high importance not only because of financial aspects but also an important part of the region’s tourism resource base. Monthly mean air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, vapor pressure, wind velocity, and cloud cover for the period 1985–2005 data collected from four meteorological stations Tabriz, Maragheh, Orumieh, and Khoy were selected. The purpose of this study is to determine the most suitable months for human thermal comfort in Ourmieh Lake, a salt sea in the northwest of Iran. To achieve this, the cooling power and physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) calculated by the RayMan model and the Climate Tourism/Transfer Information Scheme (CTIS) were used. The results based on cooling power indicate that the most favorable period for tourism, sporting, and recreational activities in Ourmieh Lake is between June and October and based on PET between June to September. In addition, the CTIS shows a detailed quantification of the relevant climate–tourism factors.  相似文献   

2.
This study develops and tests a Modified Climate Index for Tourism (MCIT) utilizing more than 50 years of hourly temperature, wind and significant weather data from contrasting climatic regions, Florida and Alaska. The index measures climate as a tourism resource by combining several tourism-related climate elements. It improves previous methods by incorporating variables that are more relevant to tourism activities, by addressing the overriding nature of some conditions, and by incorporating hourly observations rather than simple daily averages. The MCIT was tested using hourly weather observations from King Salmon, Alaska and Orlando, Florida. The results show that average temperature alone is not sufficient to represent tourism climate resources. For example, at both the Florida and Alaskan sites, showers and thunderstorms are more limiting factors than temperature during much of the year. When applied to past climate data, the proposed MCIT generates meaningful results that capture tourism-related climate variations and trends, including (a) the increasingly favorable tourism conditions in Alaska due to a lengthening of the warm season and (b) a decrease of ideal climatic conditions in central Florida due to the increased summer temperatures. Thus, the index has the potential to become a useful quantitative tool to be used in conjunction with climate models to predict the nature and magnitude of the impact of anticipated climate changes on tourism.  相似文献   

3.
基于兰州市1981—2010年的气象观测资料,采用温湿指数、风效指数和着衣指数3个指标,对兰州市旅游气候舒适度进行分析评价。结果表明,兰州市全年旅游气候舒适期可达7个月,旅游最舒适月份从5月持续到9月,不适宜期主要集中在冬季的1月、12月。结合2010—2014年兰州市旅游客流量年内变化数据,划分了兰州市旅游淡旺季和客流量月指数;综合分析客流量月指数与三个指数关系得出:客流量年内变化与气候舒适度呈明显的相关性,客流量月指数与温湿指数、风效指数呈正相关,与着衣指数呈负相关,且3个指数与客流量月指数相关性较好,都在0.7以上。  相似文献   

4.
Climate is an important resource for many types of tourism. One of several metrics for the suitability of climate for sightseeing is Mieczkowski’s “Tourism Climatic Index” (TCI), which summarizes and combines seven climate variables. By means of the TCI, we analyse the present climate resources for tourism in Europe and projected changes under future climate change. We use daily data from five regional climate models and compare the reference period 1961–1990 to the A2 scenario in 2071–2100. A comparison of the TCI based on reanalysis data and model simulations for the reference period shows that current regional climate models capture the important climatic patterns. Currently, climate resources are best in Southern Europe and deteriorate with increasing latitude and altitude. With climate change the latitudinal band of favourable climate is projected to shift northward improving climate resources in Northern and Central Europe in most seasons. Southern Europe’s suitability for sightseeing tourism drops strikingly in the summer holiday months but is partially compensated by considerable improvements between October and April.  相似文献   

5.
In this paper, the thermal comfort and its changes in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau over the last 50 years have been evaluated by using the physiological equivalent temperature (PET), and a more complete tourism climate picture is presented by the Climate–Tourism–Information Scheme (CTIS). The results show that PET classes in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau cover six out of the nine-point thermal sensation scale — very cold, cold, cool, slightly cool, neutral and slightly warm — and cold stress is prevailing throughout the year. A small number of slightly cool/warm and neutral days occur in summer months. There occur no warm, hot and very hot days. The frequency of PET classes varies among regions, depending on their altitude/latitude conditions. Xining, Lhasa and Yushu are the top three cities in terms of thermal favorability. With global warming, annual cumulative number of thermally favorable days has been increasing, and that of cold stress has been reducing. The change is more obvious in lower elevation than that in higher elevation regions. The improving thermal comfort in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau might be a glad tiding for local communities and tourists. Besides PET, CTIS can provide a number of additional bioclimatic information related to tourism and recreational activities. CTIS for Lhasa and Xining shows that sunshine is plentiful all the year round, and windy days occur frequently from late January to early May. This is a useful bioclimatic information for tourism authorities, travel agencies, resorts and tourists.  相似文献   

6.
The impact of weather variability on British outbound flows   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Climate can be understood both as a resource and a motivation for tourism. This study focuses on the second issue trying to establish the sensitivity to weather anomalies of the outbound flows from United Kingdom, the third biggest international tourist spender country. Using transfer function models it is possible to analyze the significance of the short-term weather conditions in the determination of outbound British flows and simulate the effects of different climate change scenarios. Results show how mean temperature, heat waves, air frost and sunshine days are the weather variables that can be significantly related to the dynamics of the outbound British flows time series.  相似文献   

7.
Climate change may affect ocean and ice conditions in coastal oceans and thus have significant impacts on coastal infrastructure, marine navigation, and marine ecosystems. In this study a three-dimensional ice–ocean model is developed to examine likely changes of ocean and ice conditions over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves in response to climate change. The model is configured with a horizontal grid of approximately 7?km and a vertical grid of 46 levels and is run from 1979 to 2069. The projection period is 2011 to 2069 under a median emission scenario A1B used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For the projection period, the surface atmospheric forcing fields used are from the Canadian Regional Climate Model over the North Atlantic. The open boundary conditions come from the Canadian Global Climate Model, Version 3 (CGCM3), adjusted for the 1981–2010 mean of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation model output. The simulated fields over the 1981–2010 period have patterns consistent with observations. Over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves during the projection period, the model shows general trends of warming, freshening, and decreasing ice. From 2011 to 2069, the model projects that under A1B sea surface temperature will increase by 1.4°C; bottom temperature will increase by 1.6°C; sea surface salinity will decrease by 0.7; bottom salinity will decrease by 0.3; and sea-ice extent will decrease by 70%. The sea level will rise by 0.11?m at the St. John's tide-gauge station because of oceanographic change, and the freshwater transport of the Labrador Current will double as a result of freshening. The regional ice–ocean model reproduces more realistic present climate conditions and projects considerably different future climate conditions than CGCM3.  相似文献   

8.
针对安徽省山岳型景区旅游气象服务的需求和特点,以旅游气象观测网为基础,基于短时临近预报系统(INCA系统)、云海景观预报技术、雷电监测预警技术、旅游气象条件综合评级等,开发了安徽省山岳型景区旅游气象服务业务系统,实现了旅游气象服务产品的高效加工制作和快速分发传递.目前,系统已在黄山景区、九华山景区投入业务运行,为当地旅游气象服务工作的开展提供了重要支撑.  相似文献   

9.

Potential changes in future climate in the Texas Plains region were investigated in the context of agriculture by analyzing three climate model projections under the A2 climate scenario (medium–high emission scenario). Spatially downscaled historic (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) climate datasets (rainfall and temperature) were downloaded from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Climate variables predicted by three regional climate models (RCMs) namely the Regional Climate Model Version3–Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (RCM3-GFDL), Regional Climate Model Version3–Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (RCM3-CGCM3), and Canadian Regional Climate Model–Community Climate System Model (CRCM-CCSM) were evaluated in this study. Gaussian and Gamma distribution mapping techniques were employed to remove the bias in temperature and rainfall data, respectively. Both the minimum and maximum temperatures across the study region in the future showed an upward trend, with the temperatures increasing in the range of 1.9 to 2.9 °C and 2.0 to 3.2 °C, respectively. All three climate models predicted a decline in rainfall within a range of 30 to 127 mm in majority of counties across the study region. In addition, they predicted an increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall events in the future. The frost-free season as predicted by the three models showed an increase by 2.6–3.4 weeks across the region, and the number of frost days declined by 17.9 to 30 %. Overall, these projections indicate considerable changes to the climate in the Texas Plains region in the future, and these changes could potentially impact agriculture in this region.

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10.
Climate variability is an important inherent characteristic of climate and it varies on all timescales. Through examination of temperature variability on multiple temporal scales at 63 stations over the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau （TP） during 1960-2008, we find decreasing trends in daily and intraannual temperature, especially in cold seasons （autumn and winter）. These changes are more sensitive than those in the eastern China coastal region at the same latitude and indicate an asymmetric change of temperature, with hourly, daily, and monthly trends in cold periods stronger than those in warm periods during the recent years. The variation of interannual temperature is complex, showing an increasing trend in autumn and winter and decreasing trend in spring and summer, which is similar to those in the northern polar region. The changes of multiscale variability of temperature are mainly related to changes of atmospheric water vapor, cloudiness, anthropogenic aerosols, monsoon-driven climate, and some local factors. To find the influences of local conditions on temperature variability, we analyze the effects of altitude, topography, and urbanization. The results show that elevation is strongly and positively related to diurnal temperature range （DTR） and slightly positively related to interannual temperature variability （IVT）, but intraannual temperature variability shows no clear elevation dependency. Topography and urbanization also play important roles in multiscale temperature variability. Finally, strong relationships are observed between temperature variability on each scale and different extreme indices.  相似文献   

11.
Climate change could have major implications for the global tourism industry if changing environmental conditions alter the attractiveness of holiday destinations. Countries with economies dependent on tourism and with tourism industries reliant on vulnerable natural resources are likely to be particularly at risk. We investigate the implications that climate-induced variations in Atlantic hurricane activity may have for the tourism-dependent Caribbean island of Anguilla. Three hundred tourists completed standardised questionnaires and participated in a choice experiment to determine the influence hurricane risk has on their risk perceptions and decisions regarding holiday preferences. The hurricane season had been considered by 40?% of respondents when making their holiday choice, and the beaches, climate and tranquility of the island were more important than coral reef-based recreational activities in determining holiday destination choice. Choice models demonstrated that respondents were significantly less likely to choose holiday options where hurricane risk is perceived to increase, and significantly more likely to choose options that offered financial compensation for increased risk. However, these choices and decisions varied among demographic groups, with older visitors, Americans, and people who prioritize beach-based activities tending to be most concerned about hurricanes. These groups comprise a significant component of the island’s current clientele, suggesting that perceived increases in hurricane risk may have important implications for the tourism economy of Anguilla and similar destinations. Improved protection of key environmental features (e.g. beaches) may be necessary to enhance resilience to potential future climate impacts.  相似文献   

12.
Climate change caused by anthropogenic activities has generated a variety of research focusing on investigating the past climate, predicting the future climate and quantifying the change in climate extreme events by using different climate models. Climate extreme events are valuable to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on human activities, agriculture and economy and are also useful to monitor the climate change on global scale. Here, a Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulation is used to study the future variations in the temperature extreme indices, particularly change in frequency of warm and cold spells duration over Pakistan. The analyses are done on the basis of simulating two 30 years simulations with the Hadley Center’s RCM PRECIS, at a horizontal resolution of 50 km. Simulation for the period 1961–1990 represents the recent climate and simulation for the period 2071–2100 represents the future climate. These simulations are driven by lateral boundary conditions from HadAM3P GCM of Hadley centre UK. For the validation of model, observed mean, maximum and minimum temperatures for the period 1961–1990 at all the available stations in Pakistan are first averaged and are then compared with the PRECIS averaged grid-box data. Also the observed monthly gridded data set of Climate Research Unit (UK) data is used to validate the model. Temperature indices in the base period as well as in future are then calculated and the corresponding change is observed. Percentile based spatial change of temperature shows that in summer, increase in daily minimum temperature is more as compared to the increase of daily maximum temperature whereas in winter, the change in maximum temperature is high. The occurrence of annual cold spells shows significantly decreasing trend while for warm spells there is slight increasing trend over Pakistan.  相似文献   

13.
This paper uses a modified form of Thornthwaite’s moisture index to better quantify climate variability by integrating the effects of temperature and precipitation. Using the moisture index, trends were evaluated over the last 112 years (1895–2006), when unique changes in temperature and precipitation have been documented to have occurred. In addition, data on potential evapotranspiration and the moisture index were used to investigate changing climate and vegetation regions. The results show that the eastern half of the country has been getting wetter, even as temperatures have continued to increase in many areas. In particular, conditions have become wetter in the South, Northeast, and East North Central regions. The changing climate is illustrated by computing climate and vegetation regions for three 30-year periods (1910–1939, 1940–1969, and 1970–1999). Climate regions based on the moisture index show an expansion of the Humid region (where precipitation vastly exceeds climatic demands for water) across the East as well as a westward shift in the zero moisture index line. In terms of vegetation zones, the most dramatic change occurs across the Midwestern prairie peninsula where the wetter conditions lead to a westward expansion of conditions favorable for oak–hickory–pine vegetation.  相似文献   

14.
Climate change might lead to large shifts in tourist flows, with large economic implications. This article simulates the effect of future climate change by the 2080s on outdoor international tourism expenditure within Europe. The assessment is based on the statistical relationship between bed nights and a climate-related index of human comfort, after accounting for other determinants of bed nights such as income and prices. It is concluded that climate change could have significant impacts on the regional distribution of the physical resources supporting tourism in Europe. For example, in summer, Southern Europe could experience climate conditions that are less favourable to tourism than the current climate, while countries in the North could enjoy better conditions. The economic effects of these changes are likely to be sizeable, albeit difficult to assess. Crucially, they are shown to depend on tourists’ temporal flexibility with respect to holiday planning. The greater the prominence of institutional rigidities such as school holidays, the larger the differences between winning and losing regions in terms of economic impact.  相似文献   

15.
The Californian Mono Lake Basin (MLB) is a fragile ecosystem, for which a 1983 ruling carefully balanced water diversions with ecological needs without the consideration of global climate change. The hydroclimatologic response to the impact of projected climatic changes in the MLB has not been comprehensively assessed and is the focus of this study. Downscaled temperature and precipitation projections from 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs), using two emission scenarios (B1 and A2), were used to drive a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to assess the effects on streamflow on the two significant inflows to the MLB, Lee Vining and Rush Creeks. For the MLB, the GCM ensemble output suggests significant increases in annual temperature, averaging 2.5 and 4.1 °C for the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, respectively, with concurrent small (1–3 %) decreases in annual precipitation by the end of the century. Annual total evapotranspiration is projected to increase by 10 mm by the end of the century for both emission scenarios. SWAT modeling results suggest a significant hydrologic response in the MLB by the end of the century that includes a) decreases in annual streamflow by 15 % compared to historical conditions b) an advance of the peak snowmelt runoff to 1 month earlier (June to May), c) a decreased (10–15 %) occurrence of ‘wet’ hydrologic years, and d) and more frequent (7–22 %) drought conditions. Ecosystem health and water diversions may be affected by reduced water availability in the MLB by the end of the century.  相似文献   

16.
The Anatolian Peninsula is located at the confluence of Europe, Asia, and Africa and houses 81 cities of which 79 of them have population over 100,000. We employed some criteria to select the cities from the 81 cities. After accomplishing all the criteria, eight cities were remaining for the study. Nonparametric Mann–Kendall test procedure was employed for the urban and rural stations of these cities to detect the long-term change in temperature trends. Statistical analysis of daily minimum temperatures for the period between 1965 and 2006 suggest that there is no statistically significant increase in rural areas. In contrast to the findings of the previous studies, however, all the urban sites and difference between urban and rural pairs show significant increase in temperatures, a strong indication for the existence of urban heat island (UHI) affect over the region. Regional Climate Model was also utilized to assess the changes in temperature by the end of century for the region. The findings suggest that an increase of up to 5°C is possible. Climate change effects enforced with UHI have the potential to cause serious problems for the entire region and hence needs to be studied thoroughly.  相似文献   

17.
Precipitation indices are commonly used as climate change indicators. Considering four Climate Variability and Predictability-recommended indices, this study assesses possible changes in their spatial patterns over Portugal under future climatic conditions. Precipitation data from the regional climate model Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling–Climate version of the Local Model (CCLM) ensemble simulations with ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 boundary conditions are used for this purpose. For recent–past, medians and probability density functions of the CCLM-based indices are validated against station-based and gridded observational dataset from ENSEMBLES-based (gridded daily precipitation data provided by the European Climate Assessment & Dataset project) indices. It is demonstrated that the model is able to realistically reproduce not only precipitation but also the corresponding extreme indices. Climate change projections for 2071–2100 (A1B and B1 SRES scenarios) reveal significant decreases in total precipitation, particularly in autumn over northwestern and southern Portugal, though changes exhibit distinct local and seasonal patterns and are typically stronger for A1B than for B1. The increase in winter precipitation over northeastern Portugal in A1B is the most important exception to the overall drying trend. Contributions of extreme precipitation events to total precipitation are also expected to increase, mainly in winter and spring over northeastern Portugal. Strong projected increases in the dry spell lengths in autumn and spring are also noteworthy, giving evidence for an extension of the dry season from summer to spring and autumn. Although no coupling analysis is undertaken, these changes are qualitatively related to modifications in the large-scale circulation over the Euro-Atlantic area, more specifically to shifts in the position of the Azores High and associated changes in the large-scale pressure gradient over the area.  相似文献   

18.
Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution and abundance of many species. Here we examine the potential effects of climate warming on olive (Olea europaea) and olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) across the ecological zones of Arizona–California (AZ–CA) and Italy. A weather-driven physiologically-based demographic model was developed from the extensive literature and used to simulate the phenology, growth and population dynamics of both species. Observed weather for several years from 151 sites in AZ–CA and 84 sites in Italy were used in the study. Three climate-warming scenarios were developed by increasing observed average daily temperature 1°, 2° and 3°C. Predictions of bloom dates, yield, total fly pupae and percent infestation were mapped using GRASS GIS. Linear multiple-regression was used to estimate the effects of weather on yield and fly abundance. Olive has a much wider temperature range of favorability than olive fly. The model predicted the present distributions of both species and gave important insights on the potential effects of climate warming on them. In AZ–CA, climate warming is expected to contract the range of olive in southern desert areas, and expand it northward and along coastal areas. Olive fly is currently limited by high temperature in the southern part of its range and by cold weather in northern areas. Climate warming is expected to increase the range of olive fly northward and in coastal areas, but decrease it in southern areas. In Italy, the range of olive is expected to increase into currently unfavorable cold areas in higher elevations in the Apennine Mountains in central Italy, and in the Po Valley in the north. Climate warming is expected to increase the range of olive fly northward throughout most of Italy.  相似文献   

19.
气候条件不仅与旅游活动密切相关，也关系到一个地区旅游业的发展。本研究选取新疆伊宁市1967～2016年共50a的气象资料，分别从伊宁市年内与年际的温湿指数（THI）和风效指数（K）分别进行划分并分析，总结出伊宁市地区近50a的气候变化，通过运用线性回归、滑动平均方法对伊宁市旅游气候舒适度进行研究。结果表明，伊宁市的湿度指数年内变化呈倒“V”型指数先增后降；年际变化春、夏、秋基本趋于稳定，冬季变化较明显，风效指数仍呈倒“V”型。总体来说，伊宁市有半年都处在较为舒适月份，其中5-9月为最舒适月份，冬季为最不适季节。伊宁市年内风效指数在春季、夏季、秋季、冬季均比较舒适；风效指数年际变化趋于稳定，即使在冬季，风力也偏小，整体较温暖。  相似文献   

20.
Climate Dynamics - This study provides an updated dynamical analysis of the observed climate conditions during the longest, most severe and continuous drought (2012–2016) ever recorded in...  相似文献   

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