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1.
A refined specific‐gauge approach was developed to quantify changes over time in hydrological response on 3260 km of the Mississippi River system using long‐term data observed at 67 hydrologic measurement stations. Of these stations, 49 were unrated (stage‐only) stations, for which over 2 000 000 ‘synthetic discharges’ were generated based on measured discharge values at nearby rated stations. The addition of these synthetic discharges nearly tripled the number of stations in the study area for which specific‐gauge analysis could be performed. In order to maintain spatial homogeneity across such a broad study area, discharges were normalized to multiples of mean daily flow (MDF). Specific‐gauge analysis calculates stage changes over time for invariant discharge conditions. Two discharges were analysed: low‐flow and flood conditions at each station. In order to avoid the large errors associated with extrapolation of annual rating curves, a new ‘enhanced interpolation’ technique was developed that calculates continuous specific‐stage time series, even for rare discharges. Thus enhanced, specific‐gauge analysis is a useful reconnaissance tool for detecting geomorphic and hydrologic trends over time. Results show that on the Middle Mississippi River and Lower Missouri River, flood stages increased at all stations in spite of widespread incision of the river bed. On the Lower Mississippi River, both low‐flow and flood stages decreased, mainly the result of artificial meander cutoffs in the late 1920s and 1930s, except downstream of Natchez, MS, where net aggradation was observed. On the Upper Mississippi River, the specific‐gauge trends were dominated by emplacement of navigational dams and impoundment of slackwater pools. On all four river reaches, these results document hydrologic responses to the different engineering toolkits used on the different portions of the Mississippi River system during the past 75–150 years. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
The New England and Mid‐Atlantic regions of the Northeast United States have experienced climate‐induced increases in both the magnitude and frequency of floods. However, a detailed understanding of flood seasonality across these regions, and how flood seasonality may have changed over the instrumental record, has not been established. The annual timing of river floods reflects the flood‐generating mechanisms operating in a basin, and many aquatic and riparian organisms are adapted to flood seasonality, as are human uses of river channels and flood plains. Changes in flood seasonality may indicate changes in flood‐generating mechanisms, and their interactions, with important implications for habitats, flood plain infrastructure, and human communities. I applied a probabilistic method for identifying flood seasons at a monthly resolution for 90 Northeast U.S. watersheds with natural, or near‐natural, flood‐generating conditions. Historical trends in flood seasonality were also investigated. Analyses were based on peaks‐over‐threshold flood records that have, on average, 85 years of data and three peaks per year—thus providing more information about flood seasonality than annual maximums. The results show rich detail about annual flood timing across the region with each site having a unique pattern of monthly flood occurrence. However, a much smaller number of dominant seasonal patterns emerged when contiguous flood‐rich months were classified into commonly recognized seasons (e.g., Mar–May, spring). The dominant seasonal patterns identified by manual classification were corroborated by unsupervised classification methods (i.e., cluster analyses). Trend analyses indicated that the annual timing of flood‐rich seasons has generally not shifted over the period of record, but 65 sites with data from 1941 to 2013 revealed increased numbers of June–October floods—a trend driving previously documented increases in Northeast U.S. flood counts per year. These months have been historically flood‐poor at the sites examined, so warm‐season flood potential has increased with possible implications for aquatic and riparian organisms.  相似文献   

3.
Levee effects upon flood levels: an empirical assessment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
This study used stream gauge records to assess the impact of levees on flood levels, providing an empirical test of theoretical and model predictions of the effects on local flood response. Focusing upon a study area in Illinois and Iowa for which levee records were available, we identified 203 gauges with ≥ 50 years hydrological record, including 15 gauges where a levee was constructed during the period of record. At these sites, step‐change analysis utilizing regression residuals tested levee‐related stage changes and levels of significance and quantified the magnitudes of stage changes. Despite large differences in stream sizes, levee alignments, and degree of floodplain constriction, the post‐levee rating‐curve adjustments showed consistent signatures. For all the study sites, stages for below bankfull (non‐flood) conditions were unaffected by levee construction. For above bankfull (flood) conditions, stages at sites downstream of their associated levees also were statistically indistinguishable before versus after levee construction. However, at all sites upstream of levees or within leveed reaches, stages increased for above bankfull conditions. These increases were abrupt, statistically significant, and generally large in magnitude – ranging up to 2.3 m (Wabash River at Mt. Carmel, IL). Stage increases began when discharge increased above bankfull flow and generally increased in magnitude with discharge until the associated levee(s) were overtopped. Detailed site assessments and supplementary data available from some sites helped document the dominant mechanisms by which levees can increase flood levels. Levee construction reduces the area of the floodplain open to storage of flood waters and reduces the width of the floodplain open to conveyance of flood flow. Floodplain conveyance often is underestimated or ignored, but Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) measurements analysed here confirm previous studies that up to 70% or more of the total discharge during large floods (~3% chance flood) can move over the floodplain. Upstream of levees and levee‐related floodplain constriction, backwater effects reduce flow velocities relative to pre‐levee conditions and, thus, increase stages for a given discharge. The empirical results here confirm a variety of theoretical predictions of levee effects but suggest that many one‐dimensional model‐based predictions of levee‐related stage changes may underestimate actual levee impacts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Stream power can be an extremely useful index of fluvial sediment transport, channel pattern, river channel erosion and riparian habitat development. However, most previous studies of downstream changes in stream power have relied on field measurements at selected cross‐sections, which are time consuming, and typically based on limited data, which cannot fully represent important spatial variations in stream power. We present here, therefore, a novel methodology we call CAFES (combined automated flood, elevation and stream power), to quantify downstream change in river flood power, based on integrating in a GIS framework Flood Estimation Handbook systems with the 5 m grid NEXTMap Britain digital elevation model derived from IFSAR (interferometric synthetic aperture radar). This provides a useful modelling platform to quantify at unprecedented resolution longitudinal distributions of flood discharge, elevation, floodplain slope and flood power at reach and basin scales. Values can be resolved to a 50 m grid. CAFES approaches have distinct advantages over current methodologies for reach‐ and basin‐scale stream power assessments and therefore for the interpretation and prediction of fluvial processes. The methodology has significant international applicability for understanding basin‐scale hydraulics, sediment transport, erosion and sedimentation processes and river basin management. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Flooding on the German Rhine during the 20th century was tested for trends and assessed to identify causal mechanisms driving worsening of flooding. A review of previous research outlines the range of impacts due to climate change, land‐use shifts, and river regulation. Analysis of hydrologic data, especially of the long record at Cologne, documents statistically significant increases in both flood magnitudes and frequencies. Specific‐gauge analysis, which isolates the effects of channel modification, documents that 20th century river engineering has caused little of the observed increase in flooding on the German Rhine. Precipitation records from the Rhine basin confirm that flood magnification has been driven by upstream factors, including an increase in flood‐producing precipitation of roughly 25% during the past 100 years and increases in runoff yields. In addition, agricultural land‐use records suggest that flood magnification can be partially explained by 20th century trends documenting intensification and industrialization of German agriculture. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
This study modelled flood losses (economic damages) along the Middle Mississippi River (MMR) (1) using current US government estimates of flow frequencies and (2) using frequencies based on the original, unaltered discharge measurements. The official flood frequencies were quantified in the Upper Mississippi River System Flow Frequency Study (UMRSFFS), but as a last step in that study, early discharges along the MMR were reduced by up to 54% to reflect a purported bias in early measurements. Subsequently, early discharge measurements were rigorously tested, and no such bias was found. Here, flood damages were quantified using a combination of one‐dimensional hydraulic modelling and flood‐loss modelling. For all recurrence intervals, damages were much less using the UMRSFFS flow frequencies compared with the frequencies based on the original discharge measurements, with differences ranging up to 79% (100‐year event) and $2.9bn (200‐year event). Annualized losses in the study area based on the UMRSFFS frequencies were just $41.6m versus $125.6m using the raw frequencies (an underestimation of 67%). These totals do not include flood losses elsewhere along the MMR, including in metropolitan St Louis. In summary, a seemingly small methodological adjustment – in this case, a single hidden adjustment, not documented anywhere within the UMRSFFS – can have dramatic societal impacts in terms of underestimation of flood probabilities and flood risk. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Severe hydrological droughts in the Amazon have generally been associated with strong El Niño events. More than 100 years of stage record at Manaus harbour confirms that minimum water levels generally coincide with intense warming in the tropical Pacific sea waters. During 2005, however, the Amazon experienced a severe drought which was not associated with an El Niño event. Unless what usually occurs during strong El Niño events, when negative rainfall anomalies usually affect central and eastern Amazon drainage basin; rainfall deficiencies in the drought of 2005 were spatially constrained to the west and southwest of the basin. In spite of this, discharge stations at the main‐stem recorded minimum water levels as low as those observed during the basin‐wide 1996–1997 El Niño‐related drought. The analysis of river discharges along the main‐stem and major tributaries during the drought of 2004–2005 revealed that the recession on major tributaries began almost simultaneously. This was not the case in the 1996–1997 drought, when above‐normal contribution of some tributaries for a short period during high water was crucial to partially counterbalance high discharge deficits of the other tributaries. Since time‐lagged contributions of major tributaries are fundamental to damp the extremes in the main‐stem, an almost coincident recession in almost all tributaries caused a rapid decrease in water discharges during the 2005 event. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
The discharge hydrograph estimation in rivers based on reverse routing modeling and using only water level data at two gauged sections is here extended to the most general case of significant lateral flow contribution, without needing to deploy rainfall–runoff procedures. The proposed methodology solves the Saint‐Venant equations in diffusive form also involving the lateral contribution using a “head‐driven” modeling approach where lateral inflow is assumed to be function of the water level at the tributary junction. The procedure allows to assess the discharge hydrograph at ends of a selected river reach with significant lateral inflow, starting from the stage recorded there and without needing rainfall data. Specifically, the MAST 1D hydraulic model is applied to solve the diffusive wave equation using the observed stage hydrograph at the upstream section as upstream boundary condition. The other required data are (a) the observed stage hydrograph at the downstream section, as benchmark for the parameter calibration, and (b) the bathymetry of the river reach, from the upstream section to a short distance after the downstream gauged section. The method is validated with different flood events observed in two river reaches with a significant intermediate basin, where reliable rating curves were available, selected along the Tiber River, in central Italy, and the Alzette River, in Luxembourg. Very good performance indices are found for the computed discharge hydrographs at both the channel ends and along the tributaries. The mean Nash‐Sutcliffe value (NSq) at the channel ends of two rivers is found equal to 0.99 and 0.86 for the upstream and downstream sites, respectively. The procedure is also validated on a longer stretch of the Tiber River including three tributaries for which appreciable results are obtained in terms of NSq for the computed discharge hydrographs at both the channel ends for three investigated flood events.  相似文献   

9.
The transition area between rivers and their adjacent riparian aquifers, which may comprise the hyporheic zone, hosts important biochemical reactions, which control water quality. The rates of these reactions and metabolic processes are temperature dependent. Yet the thermal dynamics of riparian aquifers, especially during flooding and dynamic groundwater flow conditions, has seldom been studied. Thus, we investigated heat transport in riparian aquifers during 3 flood events of different magnitudes at 2 sites along the same river. River and riparian aquifer temperature and water‐level data along the Lower Colorado River in Central Texas, USA, were monitored across 2‐dimensional vertical sections perpendicular to the bank. At the downstream site, preflood temperature penetration distance into the bank suggested that advective heat transport from lateral hyporheic exchange of river water into the riparian aquifer was occurring during relatively steady low‐flow river conditions. Although a small (20‐cm stage increase) dam‐controlled flood pulse had no observable influence on groundwater temperature, larger floods (40‐cm and >3‐m stage increases) caused lateral movement of distinct heat plumes away from the river during flood stage, which then retreated back towards the river after flood recession. These plumes result from advective heat transport caused by flood waters being forced into the riparian aquifer. These flood‐induced temperature responses were controlled by the size of the flood, river water temperature during the flood, and local factors at the study sites, such as topography and local ambient water table configuration. For the intermediate and large floods, the thermal disturbance in the riparian aquifer lasted days after flood waters receded. Large floods therefore have impacts on the temperature regime of riparian aquifers lasting long beyond the flood's timescale. These persistent thermal disturbances may have a significant impact on biochemical reaction rates, nutrient cycling, and ecological niches in the river corridor.  相似文献   

10.
The reliability of a procedure for investigation of flooding into an ungauged river reach close to an urban area is investigated. The approach is based on the application of a semi‐distributed rainfall–runoff model for a gauged basin, including the flood‐prone area, and that furnishes the inlet flow conditions for a two‐dimensional hydraulic model, whose computational domain is the urban area. The flood event, which occurred in October 1998 in the Upper Tiber river basin and caused significant damage in the town of Pieve S. Stefano, was used to test the approach. The built‐up area, often inundated, is included in the gauged basin of the Montedoglio dam (275 km2), for which the rainfall–runoff model was adapted and calibrated through three flood events without over‐bank flow. With the selected set of parameters, the hydrological model was found reasonably accurate in simulating the discharge hydrograph of the three events, whereas the flood event of October 1998 was simulated poorly, with an error in peak discharge and time to peak of −58% and 20%, respectively. This discrepancy was ascribed to the combined effect of the rainfall spatial variability and a partial obstruction of the bridge located in Pieve S. Stefano. In fact, taking account of the last hypothesis, the hydraulic model reproduced with a fair accuracy the observed flooded urban area. Moreover, incorporating into the hydrological model the flow resulting from a sudden cleaning of the obstruction, which was simulated by a ‘shock‐capturing’ one‐dimensional hydraulic model, the discharge hydrograph at the basin outlet was well represented if the rainfall was supposed to have occurred in the region near the main channel. This was simulated by reducing considerably the dynamic parameter, the lag time, of the instantaneous unit hydrograph for each homogeneous element into which the basin is divided. The error in peak discharge and time to peak decreased by a few percent. A sensitivity analysis of both the flooding volume involved in the shock wave and the lag time showed that this latter parameter requires a careful evaluation. Moreover, the analysis of the hydrograph peak prediction due to error in rainfall input showed that the error in peak discharge was lower than that of the same input error quantity. Therefore, the obtained results allowed us to support the hypothesis on the causes which triggered the complex event occurring in October 1998, and pointed out that the proposed procedure can be conveniently adopted for flood risk evaluation in ungauged river basins where a built‐up area is located. The need for a more detailed analysis regarding the processes of runoff generation and flood routing is also highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Using a nonstationary flood frequency model, this study investigates the impact of trends on the estimation of flood frequencies and flood magnification factors. Analysis of annual peak streamflow data from 28 hydrological stations across the Pearl River basin, China, shows that: (1) northeast parts of the West and the North River basins are dominated by increasing annual peak streamflow, whereas decreasing trends of annual peak streamflow are prevailing in other regions of the Pearl River basin; (2) trends significantly impact the estimation of flood frequencies. The changing frequency of the same flood magnitude is related to the changing magnitude or significance/insignificance of trends, larger increasing frequency can be detected for stations with significant increasing trends of annual peak streamflow and vice versa, and smaller increasing magnitude for stations with not significant increasing annual peak streamflow, pointing to the critical impact of trends on estimation of flood frequencies; (3) larger‐than‐1 flood magnification factors are observed mainly in the northeast parts of the West River basin and in the North River basin, implying magnifying flood processes in these regions and a higher flood risk in comparison with design flood‐control standards; and (4) changes in hydrological extremes result from the integrated influence of human activities and climate change. Generally, magnifying flood regimes in the northeast Pearl River basin and in the North River basin are mainly the result of intensifying precipitation regime; smaller‐than‐1 flood magnification factors along the mainstream of the West River basin and also in the East River basin are the result of hydrological regulations of water reservoirs. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
The mountain headwater Bow River at Banff, Alberta, Canada, was subject to a large flood in June 2013, over which considerable debate has ensued regarding its probability of occurrence. It is therefore instructive to consider what information long‐term streamflow discharge records provide about environmental change in the Upper Bow River basin above Banff. Though protected as part of Banff National Park, since 1885, the basin has experienced considerable climate and land cover changes, each of which has the potential to impact observations, and hence the interpretations of flood probability. The Bow River at Banff hydrometric station is one of Canada's longest‐operating reference hydrological basin network stations and so has great value for assessing changes in flow regime over time. Furthermore, the station measures a river that provides an extremely important water supply for Calgary and irrigation district downstream and so is of great interest for assessing regional water security. These records were examined for changes in several flood attributes and to determine whether flow changes may have been related to landscape change within the basin as caused by forest fires, conversion from grasslands to forest with fire suppression, and regional climate variations and/or trends. Floods in the Upper Bow River are generated by both snowmelt and rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events, the latter type which include flood events generated by spatially and temporally large storms such as occurred in 2013. The two types of floods also have different frequency characteristics. Snowmelt and ROS flood attributes were not correlated significantly with any climate index or with burned area except that snowmelt event duration correlated negatively to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. While there is a significant negative trend in all floods over the past 100 years, when separated based on generating process, neither snowmelt floods nor large ROS floods associated with mesoscale storms show any trends over time. Despite extensive changes to the landscape of the basin and in within the climate system, the flood regime remains unchanged, something identified at smaller scales in the region but never at larger scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
In 1937, the US Army Corps of Engineers cut through the “neck” of a large meander on the lower Mississippi River (below the confluence with the Ohio River) forming the Caulk Neck cutoff and creating Lake Whittington, a 26‐km long oxbow lake, in northern Mississippi. Since 1938, seasonal flooding and a boat channel connecting the lake with the Mississippi River have led to sediment accumulation in the lake, resulting in an 80‐year record of sediment quality in the river. On the basis of an age‐dated sediment core from the lake, trends in trace metals and hydrophobic organic compounds (except polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) follow well‐known patterns with upward trends from the 1930s to the ca 1970s, followed by downward trends to the present. Two factors contribute to these patterns: reservoir construction and changes in emissions. The construction of seven large reservoirs on the Missouri River, in particular the closure of the Fort Randall (1953) and Gavins Point (1955) Dams, greatly reduced the load of relatively clean sediment to the Mississippi River, likely contributing to downstream increases in contaminant concentrations in the Mississippi River. Increasing anthropogenic emissions also contributed to upward trends until ca 1970 when major environmental policy actions began resulting in broad decreases in emissions and downward trends in the concentrations of most of the contaminants monitored. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and phosphorus are partial exceptions to this pattern, with increases to the 1960s and variable concentrations showing no clear trend since. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.  相似文献   

14.
Recent studies have found insignificant or decreasing trends in time‐series dissolved organic carbon (DOC) datasets, questioning the assumption that long‐term DOC concentrations in surface waters are increasing in response to anthropogenic forcing, including climate change, land use, and atmospheric acid deposition. We used the weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season (WRTDS) model to estimate annual flow‐normalized concentrations and fluxes to determine if changes in DOC quantity and quality signal anthropogenic forcing at 10 locations in the Mississippi River Basin. Despite increases in agriculture and urban development throughout the basin, net increases in DOC concentration and flux were significant at only 3 of 10 sites from 1997 to 2013 and ranged between ?3.5% to +18% and ?0.1 to 19%, respectively. Positive shifts in DOC quality, characterized by increasing specific ultraviolet absorbance at 254 nm, ranged between +8% and +45%, but only occurred at one of the sites with significant DOC quantity increases. Basinwide reductions in atmospheric sulfate deposition did not result in large increases in DOC either, likely because of the high buffering capacity of the soil. Hydroclimatic factors including annual discharge, precipitation, and temperature did not significantly change during the 17‐year timespan of this study, which contrasts with results from previous studies showing significant increases in precipitation and discharge over a century time scale. Our study also contrasts with those from smaller catchments, which have shown stronger DOC responses to climate, land use, and acidic deposition. This temporal and spatial analysis indicated that there was a potential change in DOC sources in the Mississippi River Basin between 1997 and 2013. However, the overall magnitude of DOC trends was not large, and the pattern in quantity and quality increases for the 10 study sites was not consistent throughout the basin.  相似文献   

15.
Nicholas Pinter 《水文研究》2010,24(8):1088-1093
This study tests the hypothesis that historical float‐based discharge measurements on the Mississippi River systematically over‐stated actual flood flows by 10% to > 30% relative to measurements using current meters. This assertion has been repeated over the past 25 years and recently has been used to adjust historical discharges used for flood‐frequency analysis. This study tests the hypothesis above using 2150 historical discharge measurements digitized from the three principal gauging stations on the Middle Mississippi River (MMR): data that include 626 float‐based discharges and 1516 meter‐based discharges, including 122 paired measurements. Multiple comparative tests show that the hypothesis above cannot be supported; if anything, the float‐based measurements slightly underestimate flows (not over‐estimate) over a broad range of discharges up to large floods. In response to the purported data bias above (‘changing history’; Dieckmann RJ, Dyhouse GR. 1998. Changing history at St. Louis—adjusting historic flows for frequency analysis. First Federal Inter‐Agency Hydrologic Modeling Conference, April 20–22, 1998. Las Vegas, NV; 4·31–4·36), historical flood discharges on the MMR have been modified, most by 10–20% and several by > 30%. These altered discharges are now being promulgated, in particular, through the Upper Mississippi River System Flow Frequency Study (UMRSFFS). New flow frequencies, flood profiles, and new flood maps from the UMRSFFS may significantly underestimate the actual flood hazard on the MMR if the original hydrologic data have been erroneously altered on the basis of an assumption of data bias. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Annual fluxes, flow‐weighted concentrations and linear least squares trendline calculations for a number of long‐term Mississippi River Basin (MRB) sampling sites covering 1981 through 2007, whilst somewhat ‘noisy’, display long‐term patterns of decline. Annual flow‐weighted concentration plots display the same long‐term patterns of decline, but are less noisy because they reduce/eliminate variations due to interannual discharge differences. The declines appear greatest in the middle MRB, but also are evident elsewhere. The pattern for the lower Ohio River differs and may reflect ongoing construction at the Olmsted lock and dam that began in 1993 and currently is ongoing. The ‘Great Flood of 1993’ appears to have superimposed a step function (a sharp drop) on the long‐term rate of decline in suspended sediment concentrations (SSC), annual fluxes and flow‐weighted concentrations in the middle MRB at St Louis and Thebes, Missouri and Vicksburg, Mississippi, and in the lower MRB at St Francisville, Louisiana. Evidence for a step function at other sites is less substantial, but may have occurred. The step function appears to have resulted from losses in available (erodible) sediment, rather than to a reduction in discharge; hence, the MRB appears to be supply limited rather than discharge limited. These evaluations support the need for daily discharge and SSC data collections in the MRB to better address questions regarding long‐term trends in sediment‐related issues. This is apparent when the results for the Mississippi River at Thebes and St Louis sites are compared with those from other MRB sites where intensive (daily) data collections are lacking. Published in 2009 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
The measurement of river discharge is necessary for understanding many water‐related issues. Traditionally, river discharge is estimated by measuring water stage and converting the measurement to discharge by using a stage–discharge rating curve. Our proposed method for the first time couples the measurement of water‐surface width with river width–stage and stage–discharge rating curves by using very high‐resolution satellite data. We used it to estimate the discharge in the Yangtze (Changjiang) River as a case study. The discharges estimated at four stations from five QuickBird‐2 images matched the ground observation data very well, demonstrating that the proposed approach can be regarded as ancillary to traditional field measurement methods or other remote methods to estimate river discharge. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Robert E. Criss 《水文研究》2018,32(11):1607-1615
The rainfall–run‐off convolution integral is analytically solved for several models for the elementary hydrograph. These solutions can be combined with available rainfall frequency analyses to predict flood flows along streams for different recurrence intervals, using no free parameters for gauged streams and one estimable parameter for ungauged streams. Extreme discharge magnitudes at gauged sites can be typically estimated within a factor of two of actual records, using no historical data on extreme flows. The flow predictions reproduce several important characteristics of the flood phenomenon, such as the slope of the regression line between observed extreme flows and basin area on the conventional logQ versus logA plot. Importantly, for the models and data sets investigated, the storm duration of greatest significance to flooding was found to approximate the intrinsic transport timescale of the particular watershed, which increases with basin size. Thus, storms that deliver extraordinary amounts of rainfall over a particular time interval will most greatly activate basins whose time constants approximately equal that interval. This theoretical finding is supported by examination of the regional hydrological response to the massive storms of September 14, 2008, and April 28–30, 2017, which caused extraordinary record flooding of basins of about 5–100 km2 and 500–4,000 km2, respectively, but produced few records in basins that were larger or smaller than those ranges.  相似文献   

19.
A key aspect of large river basins partially neglected in large‐scale hydrological models is river hydrodynamics. Large‐scale hydrologic models normally simulate river hydrodynamics using simplified models that do not represent aspects such as backwater effects and flood inundation, key factors for some of the largest rivers of the world, such as the Amazon. In a previous paper, we have described a large‐scale hydrodynamic approach resultant from an improvement of the MGB‐IPH hydrological model. It uses full Saint Venant equations, a simple storage model for flood inundation and GIS‐based algorithms to extract model parameters from digital elevation models. In the present paper, we evaluate this model in the Solimões River basin. Discharge results were validated using 18 stream gauges showing that the model is accurate. It represents the large delay and attenuation of flood waves in the Solimões basin, while simplified models, represented here by Muskingum Cunge, provide hydrographs are wrongly noisy and in advance. Validation against 35 stream gauges shows that the model is able to simulate observed water levels with accuracy, representing their amplitude of variation and timing. The model performs better in large rivers, and errors concentrate in small rivers possibly due to uncertainty in river geometry. The validation of flood extent results using remote sensing estimates also shows that the model accuracy is comparable to other flood inundation modelling studies. Results show that (i) river‐floodplain water exchange and storage, and (ii) backwater effects play an important role for the Amazon River basin hydrodynamics. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
The Andean Cordillera and piedmont significantly influence river system and dynamics, being the source of many of the important rivers of the Amazon basin. The Beni River, whose upper sub‐catchments drain the Andean and sub‐Andean ranges, is a major tributary of the Madeira River. This study examines the river in the south‐western Amazonian lowlands of Bolivia, where it develops mobile meanders. Channel migration, meander‐bend morphology and ox‐bow lakes are analysed at different temporal and spatial scales. The first part of this study was undertaken with the aim to link the erosion–deposition processes in the active channel with hydrological events. The quantification of annual erosion and deposition areas shows high inter‐annual and spatial variability. In this study, we investigate the conditions of sediment exportation in the river in relation to three hydrological parameters (flood intensity, date of discharge peak and duration of the bank‐full stage level). The second part of this study, focusing on the abandoned meanders, analyses the cutoff processes and the post‐abandonment evolution during 1967–2001. This approach shows the influence of the active channel behaviour on the sediment diffusion and sequestration of the abandoned meanders and allows us to build a first model of the contemporary floodplain evolution. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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