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1.
High‐magnitude floods across Europe within the last decade have resulted in the widespread reassessment of flood risk; this coupled with the introduction of the Water Framework Directive (2000) has increased the need for a detailed understanding of seasonal variability in flood magnitude and frequency. Mean day of flood (MDF) and flood seasonality were calculated for Wales using 30 years of gauged river‐flow records (1973–2002). Noticeable regional variations in timing and length of flood season are evident, with flooding occurring earlier in small catchments draining higher elevations in north and mid‐west Wales. Low‐altitude regions in West Wales exposed to westerly winds experience flooding during October–January, while large eastern draining catchments experience later flooding (January–February). In the northeast and mid‐east regions December–January months experience the greatest number of floods, while the southeast has a slightly longer flood season (December–February), with a noticeable increase in January floods. Patterns obtained from MDF data demonstrate their effectiveness and use in analysing regional patterns in flood seasonality, but catchment‐specific determinants, e.g. catchment wetness, size and precipitation regime are important factors in flood seasonality. Relatively strong correlations between precipitation and flood activity are evident in Wales, with a poorer relationship between flooding and weather types and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Trends in the timing and magnitude of floods in Canada   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
This study investigates trends in the timing and magnitude of seasonal maximum flood events across Canada. A new methodology for analyzing trends in the timing of flood events is developed that takes into account the directional character and multi-modality of flood occurrences. The methodology transforms the directional series of flood occurrences into new series by defining a new location of the origin. A test of flood seasonality (multi-modality) is then applied to identify dominant flood seasons. Floods from the dominant seasons are analyzed separately by a seasonal trend analysis. The Mann–Kendall test in conjunction with the method of pre-whitening is used in the trend analysis. Over 160 streamflow records from one common observation period are analyzed in watersheds with relatively pristine and stable land-use conditions. The results show weak signals of climate variability and/or change present in the timing of floods in Canada during the last three decades. Most of the significant trends in the timing of spring snowmelt floods are negative trends (earlier flood occurrence) found in the southern part of Canada. There are no significant trends identified in the timing of fall rainfall floods. However, the significance of the fall, rainfall-dominated flood season has been increasing in several analyzed watersheds. This may indicate increasing intensity of rainfall events during the recent years. Trends in the magnitude of floods are more pronounced than the trends in the timing of floods. Almost one fifth of all the analyzed stations show significant trends in the magnitude of snowmelt floods. Most of the significant trends are negative trends, suggesting decreasing magnitudes of snowmelt floods in Canada over the last three decades. Significant negative trends are found particularly in southern Ontario, northern Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia. There are no significant trends in the magnitude of rainfall floods found in the analyzed streamflow records. The results support the outcomes of previous streamflow trend studies conducted in Canada.  相似文献   

3.
The flood seasonality of catchments in Switzerland is likely to change under climate change because of anticipated alterations of precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt. Information on this change is crucial for flood protection policies, for example, or regional flood frequency analysis. We analysed projected changes in mean annual and maximum floods of a 22‐year period for 189 catchments in Switzerland and two scenario periods in the 21st century based on an ensemble of climate scenarios. The flood seasonality was analysed with directional statistics that allow assessing both changes in the mean date a flood occurs as well as changes in the strength of the seasonality. We found that the simulated change in flood seasonality is a function of the change in flow regime type. If snow accumulation and melt is important in a catchment during the control period, then the anticipated change in flood seasonality is most pronounced. Decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios additionally affects the flood seasonality (mean date of flood occurrence) and leads to a decreasing strength of seasonality, that is a higher temporal variability in most cases. The magnitudes of mean annual floods and more clearly of maximum floods (in a 22‐year period) are expected to increase in the future because of changes in flood‐generating processes and scaled extreme precipitation. Southern alpine catchments show a different signal, though: the simulated mean annual floods decrease in the far future, that is at the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
This paper investigates the transferability of calibrated HBV model parameters under stable and contrasting conditions in terms of flood seasonality and flood generating processes (FGP) in five Norwegian catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes. We apply a series of generalized (differential) split-sample tests using a 6-year moving window over (i) the entire runoff observation periods, and (ii) two subsets of runoff observations distinguished by the seasonal occurrence of annual maximum floods during either spring or autumn. The results indicate a general model performance loss due to the transfer of calibrated parameters to independent validation periods of ?5 to ?17%, on average. However, there is no indication that contrasting flood seasonality exacerbates performance losses, which contradicts the assumption that optimized parameter sets for snowmelt-dominated floods (during spring) perform particularly poorly on validation periods with rainfall-dominated floods (during autumn) and vice versa.  相似文献   

5.
The transition area between rivers and their adjacent riparian aquifers, which may comprise the hyporheic zone, hosts important biochemical reactions, which control water quality. The rates of these reactions and metabolic processes are temperature dependent. Yet the thermal dynamics of riparian aquifers, especially during flooding and dynamic groundwater flow conditions, has seldom been studied. Thus, we investigated heat transport in riparian aquifers during 3 flood events of different magnitudes at 2 sites along the same river. River and riparian aquifer temperature and water‐level data along the Lower Colorado River in Central Texas, USA, were monitored across 2‐dimensional vertical sections perpendicular to the bank. At the downstream site, preflood temperature penetration distance into the bank suggested that advective heat transport from lateral hyporheic exchange of river water into the riparian aquifer was occurring during relatively steady low‐flow river conditions. Although a small (20‐cm stage increase) dam‐controlled flood pulse had no observable influence on groundwater temperature, larger floods (40‐cm and >3‐m stage increases) caused lateral movement of distinct heat plumes away from the river during flood stage, which then retreated back towards the river after flood recession. These plumes result from advective heat transport caused by flood waters being forced into the riparian aquifer. These flood‐induced temperature responses were controlled by the size of the flood, river water temperature during the flood, and local factors at the study sites, such as topography and local ambient water table configuration. For the intermediate and large floods, the thermal disturbance in the riparian aquifer lasted days after flood waters receded. Large floods therefore have impacts on the temperature regime of riparian aquifers lasting long beyond the flood's timescale. These persistent thermal disturbances may have a significant impact on biochemical reaction rates, nutrient cycling, and ecological niches in the river corridor.  相似文献   

6.
Changes in the seasonality and timing of annual peak streamflow in the north‐central USA are likely because of changes in precipitation and temperature regimes. A source of long‐term information about flood events across the study area is the U.S. Geological Survey peak streamflow database. However, one challenge of answering climate‐related questions with this dataset is that even in snowmelt‐dominated areas, it is a mixed population of snowmelt/spring rain generated peaks and summer/fall rain generated peaks. Therefore, a process was developed to divide the annual peaks into two populations, or seasons, snowmelt/spring, and summer/fall. The two series were then tested for the hypotheses that because of changes in precipitation regimes, the odds of summer/fall peaks have increased and, because of temperature changes, snowmelt/spring peaks happen earlier. Over climatologically and geographically similar regions in the north‐central USA, logistic regression was used to model the odds of getting a summer/fall peak. When controlling for antecedent wet and dry conditions and geographical differences, the odds of summer/fall peaks occurring have increased across the study area. With respect to timing within the seasons, trend analysis showed that in northern portions of the study region, snowmelt/spring peaks are occurring earlier. The timing of snowmelt/spring peaks in three regions in the northern part of the study area is earlier by 8.7– 14.3 days. These changes have implications for water interests, such as potential changes in lead‐time for flood forecasting or changes in the operation of flood‐control dams. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Suspended sediment dynamics are still imperfectly understood, especially in the loess hilly region on the Loess Plateau, with strong temporal variability, where few studies heretofore have been conducted. Using a dataset up to eight years long in the Lower Chabagou Creek, the variability in suspended sediment load at different temporal scales (within‐flood variability, monthly–seasonal and annual) is analyzed in this paper. The results show that, on the within‐flood scale, most of the sediment peaks lag behind peak discharges, implying that slope zones are the main sediment source area; independent of the occurring sequences of the peaks of sediment and discharge, all the events could present an anti‐clockwise hysteresis loop resulting from the abundant material and the influence of hyperconcentrated flows on suspended sediment concentration. At monthly and seasonal scales, there is a ‘store–release’ process, i.e. sediment is prepared in winter, spring and late autumn, and exported in summer and early autumn. At the annual scale, the high variability in concentration and sediment yield are highly correlated with water yield, resulting from the number and magnitude of floods recorded yearly, and almost all the suspended load is transported during these events. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):456-473
Abstract

The main objective of this study is to compare the seasonality of selected precipitation and runoff characteristics in Austria and Slovakia. Monthly seasonality indices are analysed to interpret the long-term climatic behaviour, while the seasonality of extremes is analysed to understand flood occurrence. The analysis is based on mean monthly precipitation data at 555 (Austria) and 202 (Slovakia) stations, annual maximum daily precipitation at 520 (Austria) and 56 (Slovakia) stations, and mean monthly runoff and annual maximum floods at 258 (Austria) and 85 (Slovakia) gauging stations. The results suggest that the seasonality of the selected hydrological characteristics is an important indicator of flood processes, but varies considerably in space. The seasonality of extreme flood events and, hence flood processes, tends to change with the flood magnitude. This change is more pronounced in the lowland and hilly regions than it is in the mountains. Both in Austria and Slovakia, decades of flood seasonality exist.  相似文献   

9.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):974-991
Abstract

The aim is to build a seasonal flood frequency analysis model and estimate seasonal design floods. The importance of seasonal flood frequency analysis and the advantages of considering seasonal design floods in the derivation of reservoir planning and operating rules are discussed, recognising that seasonal flood frequency models have been in use for over 30 years. A set of non-identical models with non-constant parameters is proposed and developed to describe flows that reflect seasonal flood variation. The peak-over-threshold (POT) sampling method was used, as it is considered to provide significantly more information on flood seasonality than annual maximum (AM) sampling and has better performance in flood seasonality estimation. The number of exceedences is assumed to follow the Poisson distribution (Po), while the peak exceedences are described by the exponential (Ex) and generalized Pareto (GP) distributions and a combination of both, resulting in three models, viz. Po-Ex, Po-GP and Po-Ex/GP. Their performances are analysed and compared. The Geheyan and the Baiyunshan reservoirs were chosen for the case study. The application and statistical experiment results show that each model has its merits and that the Po-Ex/GP model performs best. Use of the Po-Ex/GP model is recommended in seasonal flood frequency analysis for the purpose of deriving reservoir operation rules.  相似文献   

10.
Fluvial flood events have substantial impacts on humans, both socially and economically, as well as on ecosystems (e.g., hydroecology and pollutant transport). Concurrent with climate change, the seasonality of flooding in cold environments is expected to shift from a snowmelt‐dominated to a rainfall‐dominated flow regime. This would have profound impacts on water management strategies, that is, flood risk mitigation, drinking water supply, and hydro power. In addition, cold climate hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with catchment properties and large‐scale climate fluctuations making the manifestation of changes difficult to detect and predict. Understanding a possible change in flood seasonality and defining related key drivers therefore is essential to mitigate risk and to keep management strategies viable under a changing climate. This study explores changes in flood seasonality across near‐natural catchments in Scandinavia using circular statistics and trend tests. Results indicate strong seasonality in flooding for snowmelt‐dominated catchments with a single peak occurring in spring and early summer (March through June), whereas flood peaks are more equally distributed throughout the year for catchments located close to the Atlantic coast and in the south of the study area. Flood seasonality has changed over the past century seen as decreasing trends in summer maximum daily flows and increasing winter and spring maximum daily flows with 5–35% of the catchments showing significant changes at the 5% significance level. Seasonal mean daily flows corroborate those findings with higher percentages (5–60%) of the catchments showing statistically significant changes. Alterations in annual flood occurrence also point towards a shift in flow regime from snowmelt‐dominated to rainfall‐dominated with consistent changes towards earlier timing of the flood peak (significant for 25% of the catchments). Regionally consistent patterns suggest a first‐order climate control as well as a local second‐order catchment control, which causes inter‐seasonal variability in the streamflow response.  相似文献   

11.
In floodplains located in temperate regions, seasonal variations in temperature affect biological communities and these effects may overlap with those of the flood regime. In this study we explored if and how timing (with regard to temperature seasonality) influences the responses of planktonic and free-floating plants communities to floods in a warm temperate floodplain lake and assessed its relevance for determining state shifts. We took samples of zooplankton, phytoplankton, picoplankton, heterotrophic nanoflagellates and free-floating macrophytes at four sites of the lake characterized by the presence-absence of emergent or free-floating macrophytes along a 2-year period with marked hydrological fluctuations associated to river flood dynamics. We performed ANOVA tests to compare the responses of these communities to floods in cold and warm seasons and among sites. Planktonic communities developed high abundances in response to floods that occurred in the cold season, while the growth of free-floating macrophytes was impaired by low winter temperatures. Spring and summer floods favored profuse colonization by free-floating plants and limited the development of planktonic communities. The prolonged absence of floods during warm periods caused environmental conditions that favored Cyanobacteria growth, leading to a “low turbid waters” regime. The occurrence of floods early in the warm season caused phytoplankton dilution and promoted free-floating plant colonization and a shift towards a “high clear waters” state. Zooplankton:phytoplankton biomass ratio was very low during floods in warm seasons, thus zooplankton grazing on phytoplankton seemed to play a minor role in the maintenance of the clear regime.  相似文献   

12.
Spatial and seasonal patterns of flood change across Brazil   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Brazil has some of the largest rivers in the world and has the second greatest flood loss potential among the emergent countries. Despite that, flood studies in this area are still scarce. In this paper, we used flood seasonality and trend analysis at the annual and seasonal scales in order to describe flood regimes and changes across the whole of Brazil in the period 1976–2015. We identified a strong seasonality of floods and a well-defined spatio-temporal pattern for flood occurrence. There are positive trends in the frequency and magnitude of floods in the North, South and parts of Southeast Brazil; and negative trends in the North-east and the remainder of Southeast Brazil. Trends in the magnitude (frequency) were predominant in the winter (summer). Overall, floods are becoming more frequent and intense in Brazilian regions characterized by wet conditions, and less frequent and intense in drier regions.  相似文献   

13.
Over‐bank flooding is one of the driving forces controlling ecological integrity of riparian wetlands. Indentifying natural over‐bank flooding regime and its temporal variations is crucial for developing conservation and restoration plans and making water resources management policies for these ecosystems. Along the midstream of the Wei River in Xi'an, China lies the Jingwei riparian wetland, which was well preserved until the 1970s. Based on historical record of hydrological and morphological data of the Wei River from 1951 to 2000, we analysed temporal variations of over‐bank flooding frequency, duration, and timing in this paper. The natural annual over‐bank flooding regime was identified as having an occurrence frequency of 2·2 times a year and average duration of 5·3 days; these flooding events typically occur between June and September with occasional occurrence in late spring and late autumn. Over‐bank flooding occurrence frequency and duration decreased significantly during the 1990s, seasonal events of over‐bank floods were changed through reduced flooding frequency during summer and disappearing flooding events in late spring and late autumn. Further investigations showed that reduced discharge in the Wei River was the principal cause for these changes in over‐bank flooding dynamics. Our analysis also showed that decreased discharge of the Wei River during the 1990s was attributed near equally to disturbances from human activities and decreased regional precipitation. Results from this study may help reestablish natural over‐bank flooding dynamics in order to ensure successful restoration of Jingwei riparian wetland. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
This study examines the seasonality of flooding across the continental United States using circular statistics. Analyses are based on 7506 USGS stream gage stations with a record of least 30 years of annual maximum instantaneous peak discharge. Overall, there is a very strong seasonality in flooding across the United States, reflecting differences in flood generating mechanisms. Most of the flood events along the western and eastern United States tend to occur during the October–March period and are associated with extratropical cyclones. The average seasonality of flood events shifts to April–May in regions where snowmelt is the dominant flood agent, and later in the spring–summer across the central United States. The strength of the seasonal cycle also varies considerably, with the weakest seasonality in the Appalachian Mountains and the strongest in the northern Great Plains. The seasonal distribution of flooding is described in terms of circular uniform, reflective symmetric and asymmetric distributions. There are marked differences in the shape of the distribution across the continental United States, with the majority of the stations exhibiting a reflective symmetric distribution.Finally, nonstationarities in the seasonality of flooding are examined. Analyses are performed to detect changes over time, and to examine changes that are due to urbanization and regulation. Overall, there is not a strong signal of temporal changes. The strongest impact of urbanization and regulation is on the strength of the seasonal cycle, with indications that the signal weakens (i.e., the seasonal distribution becomes wider) under the effects of regulation.  相似文献   

15.
Seasonal patterns in factors that affect primary producers are an important part of defining the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. However, defining seasonality is often more difficult in aquatic than in terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in subtropical and tropical environments. In this study, a long-term data set for a shallow subtropical lake (Lake George, Florida, USA) was used to investigate seasonality using a range of physical, chemical and hydrological parameters. K-means cluster analysis of monthly averages among 11 selected environmental factors across 18 years suggested the overall annual pattern consists of three different seasonal clusters: a cold season (January–April), a warm season (May–August) and a flushing season (September–December). High dissolved oxygen and increased Secchi depth are key features of the cold season, while the warm season is characterized by high mean light irradiances, temperature, rainfalls, total nitrogen and phytoplankton biomass (as chlorophyll a level). The flushing season is characterized by high river discharge rates and high levels of dissolved nutrients and colored organic matter. Multiple response permutation procedures indicated that these seasonal cluster arrangements were significantly different than randomly permuted clusters (A-statistics = 0.3314, significance of delta = 0.0160, based on 1000 permutations). Results from principal component analyses supported the presence of the three seasons in the lake. Linear models explaining chlorophyll a levels using the 3-season system generally indicated better ratios of explained variance compared to the models without seasonal alignments, further indicating that even for sub-tropical systems defining seasons provides a better understanding of phytoplankton dynamics. The approaches used in this study provide statistically-based multivariate tools for the definition of seasonality in aquatic ecosystems. The ability to accurately define seasons is a key step in modeling the structure and dynamics of aquatic ecosystem, which is essential to the development of effective management strategies in a rapidly changing world.  相似文献   

16.
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17.
Extreme floods are the most widespread and often the most fatal type of natural hazard experienced in Europe, particularly in upland and mountainous areas. These ‘flash flood’ type events are particularly dangerous because extreme rainfall totals in a short space of time can lead to very high flow velocities and little or no time for flood warning. Given the danger posed by extreme floods, there are concerns that catastrophic hydrometeorological events could become more frequent in a warming world. However, analysis of longer term flood frequency is often limited by the use of short instrumental flow records (last 30–40 years) that do not adequately cover alternating flood‐rich and flood‐poor periods over the last 2 to 3 centuries. In contrast, this research extends the upland flood series of South West England (Dartmoor) back to ca AD 1800 using lichenometry. Results show that the period 1820 to mid‐1940s was characterized by widespread flooding, with particularly large and frequent events in the mid‐to‐late 19th and early 20th centuries. Since ca 1850 to 1900, there has been a general decline in flood magnitude that was particularly marked after the 1930s/mid‐1940s. Local meteorological records show that: (1) historical flood‐rich periods on Dartmoor were associated with high annual, seasonal and daily rainfall totals in the last quarter of the 19th century and between 1910 and 1946, related to sub‐decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and receipt of cyclonic and southerly weather types over the southwest peninsula; and (2) the incidence of heavy daily rainfall declined notably after 1946, similar to sedimentary archives of flooding. The peak period of flooding on Dartmoor predates the beginning of gauged flow records, which has practical implications for understanding and managing flood risk on rivers that drain Dartmoor. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
In northern regions, river ice‐ jam flooding can be more severe than open‐water flooding causing property and infrastructure damages, loss of human life and adverse impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Very little has been performed to assess the risk induced by ice‐related floods because most risk assessments are limited to open‐water floods. The specific objective of this study is to incorporate ice‐jam numerical modelling tools (e.g. RIVICE, Monte‐Carlo simulation) into flood hazard and risk assessment along the Peace River at the Town of Peace River (TPR) in Alberta, Canada. Adequate historical data for different ice‐jam and open‐water flooding events were available for this study site and were useful in developing ice‐affected stage‐frequency curves. These curves were then applied to calibrate a numerical hydraulic model, which simulated different ice jams and flood scenarios along the Peace River at the TPR. A Monte‐Carlo analysis was then carried out to acquire an ensemble of water level profiles to determine the 1 : 100‐year and 1 : 200‐year annual exceedance probability flood stages for the TPR. These flood stages were then used to map flood hazard and vulnerability of the TPR. Finally, the flood risk for a 200‐year return period was calculated to be an average of $32/m2/a ($/m2/a corresponds to a unit of annual expected damages or risk). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Abstract

Seasonal design floods which consider information on seasonal variation are very important for reservoir operation and management. The seasonal design flood method currently used in China is based on seasonal maximum (SM) samples and assumes that the seasonal design frequency is equal to the annual design frequency. Since the return period associated with annual maximum floods is taken as the standard in China, the current seasonal design flood cannot satisfy flood prevention standards. A new seasonal design flood method, which considers dates of flood occurrence and magnitudes of the peaks (runoff), was proposed and established based on copula function. The mixed von Mises distribution was selected as marginal distribution of flood occurrence dates. The Pearson Type III and exponential distributions were selected as the marginal distribution of flood magnitude for annual maximum flood series and peak-over-threshold samples, respectively. The proposed method was applied at the Geheyan Reservoir, China, and then compared with the currently used seasonal design flood methods. The case study results show that the proposed method can satisfy the flood prevention standard, and provide more information about the flood occurrence probabilities in each sub-season. The results of economic analysis show that the proposed design flood method can enhance the floodwater utilization rate and give economic benefits without lowering the annual flood protection standard.

Citation Chen, L., Guo, S. L., Yan, B. W., Liu, P. & Fang, B. (2010) A new seasonal design flood method based on bivariate joint distribution of flood magnitude and date of occurrence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1264–1280.  相似文献   

20.
H. Leenaers 《水文研究》1989,3(4):325-338
For a specific flood on the polluted River Geul in March 1988, the relationships between river discharge, sediment concentration, and associated metal levels have been investigated. It was found that river discharge has only a limited influence on the transport of sediment and Pb, Zn, and Cd. During flood peaks its role is prominent, but at the intermediate stages between peaks, the quantity and quality of transported sediment depend on the variable activity of various sediment sources upstream. Nevertheless, when data from more floods are assembled, sediment and metal rating curves are obtained, which provide correlation coefficients of 0-63-0-92. Using these curves, mass transport calculations were carried out which demonstrate that the bulk of the annual transport of sediments and heavy metals occurs during a limited number of major floods.  相似文献   

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