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1.
The solar spectral irradiance (SSI) dataset is a key record for studying and understanding the energetics and radiation balance in Earth’s environment. Understanding the long-term variations of the SSI over timescales of the 11-year solar activity cycle and longer is critical for many Sun–Earth research topics. Satellite measurements of the SSI have been made since the 1970s, most of them in the ultraviolet, but recently also in the visible and near-infrared. A limiting factor for the accuracy of previous solar variability results is the uncertainties for the instrument degradation corrections, which need fairly large corrections relative to the amount of solar cycle variability at some wavelengths. The primary objective of this investigation has been to separate out solar cycle variability and any residual uncorrected instrumental trends in the SSI measurements from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) mission and the Thermosphere, Mesosphere, Ionosphere, Energetic, and Dynamics (TIMED) mission. A new technique called the Multiple Same-Irradiance-Level (MuSIL) analysis has been developed, which examines an SSI time series at different levels of solar activity to provide long-term trends in an SSI record, and the most common result is a downward trend that most likely stems from uncorrected instrument degradation. This technique has been applied to each wavelength in the SSI records from SORCE (2003?–?present) and TIMED (2002?–?present) to provide new solar cycle variability results between 27 nm and 1600 nm with a resolution of about 1 nm at most wavelengths. This technique, which was validated with the highly accurate total solar irradiance (TSI) record, has an estimated relative uncertainty of about 5% of the measured solar cycle variability. The MuSIL results are further validated with the comparison of the new solar cycle variability results from different solar cycles. 相似文献
2.
Total Solar Irradiance Measurement and Modelling during Cycle 23 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
During solar cycle 23, which is now close to its end, variations of the total solar irradiance were measured by six different
instruments, providing four independent time series of the irradiance variation over the complete solar cycle. A new composite
time series constructed using five of these six instruments provides unprecedented instrument stability for the study of the
open question of solar irradiance variations between minima. An independent analysis of the different composite time series
is performed through an empirical proxy model fit. The new composite is fitted with 0.96 correlation (R
2=93%) and RMS error of 0.15 W m−2, thus reaching the limit of the individual instrument stabilities. Both the measurements and the model indicate that for
the current cycle the minimum irradiance level has not yet been reached. Therefore we use the model to extrapolate measurements
up to 2008 when the minimum irradiance level is expected. If we assume that there will be no changes in the solar irradiance
from 2006 to 2008 that are not captured by the regression model, it can be predicted that there will be no variation of the
solar minimum irradiance level during cycle 23 with an uncertainty of ±0.14 W m−2. 相似文献
3.
Solar spectral irradiance at X-ray wavelengths show large variations over a period of solar cycle. We use X-ray irradiance data in three narrow spectral regimes deduced from Yohkoh SXT measurements to study coronal irradiance and their possible association with the activity in the lower atmosphere. Time variation of the X-ray irradiance is important in understanding the emergence of magnetic flux and the effects of such variation on the upper atmosphere of the Earth. We note that about 66% of the total (2 – 30 Å) X-ray irradiance arise from 10 to 20 Å spectral range, while 2 – 10 Å contribute only about 3% of the total. The time variation in 2 – 10 and 10 – 20 Å ranges follow each other closely. Further they follow closely the solar indices such as sunspot, F 10.7, and plage indices, although similarity in the variation of 10 – 20 Å is quite apparent. However, the variation in the other spectral band (20 – 30 Å) differ to a large extent except for the solar cycle dependent variation. We infer that in addition to the active regions, the remnants of active regions contribute considerably to the emission in this spectral range. 相似文献
4.
Magnetic fields give rise to distinctive features in different solar atmospheric regimes. To study this, time variations of
the flare index, sunspot number and sunspot area, each index arising from different physical conditions, were compared with
the solar composite irradiance throughout cycle 23. Rieger-type periodicities in these time series were calculated using Fourier
and wavelet transforms (WTs). The peaks of the wavelet power of these periodicities appeared between the years 1999 and 2002.
We found that the solar irradiance oscillations are less significant than those in the other indices during this cycle. The
irradiance shows non-periodic fluctuations during this time interval. The peaks of the flare index, sunspot number and sunspot
total area were seen around 2000.4, 1999.9 and 2001.0, respectively. These periodicities appeared intermittently and were
not simultaneous in different solar activity indices during the three years of the maximum phase of solar cycle 23. 相似文献
5.
Our study deals with the correlations between the solar activity on the one hand and the solar irradiance above the Earth’s
atmosphere and at ground level on the other. We analyzed the combined ACRIM I+II time series of the total solar irradiance
(TSI), the Mauna Loa time series of terrestrial insolation data, and data of terrestrial cosmic ray fluxes. We find that the
correlation between the TSI and the sunspot number is strongly non-linear. We interpret this as the net balance between brightening
by faculae and darkening by sunspots where faculae dominate at low activity and sunspots dominate at high activity. Such a
behavior is hitherto known from stellar analogs of the Sun in a statistical manner. We perform the same analysis for the Mauna
Loa data of terrestrial insolation. Here we find that the linear relation between sunspot number and insolation shows more
than 1% rise in insolation by sunspot number variations which is much stronger than for the TSI. Our conclusion is that the
Earth atmosphere acts as an amplifier between space and ground, and that the amplification is probably controlled by solar
activity. We suspect the cosmic rays intensity as the link between solar activity and atmospheric transparency. A Fourier
analysis of the time series of insolation shows three dominant peaks: 10.5, 20.4, and 14.0 years. As a matter of fact, the
cosmic rays data show the same pattern of significant peaks: 10.7, 22.4, and 14.9 years. This analogy supports our idea that
the cosmic rays variation has influence on the transparency of the Earth atmosphere. 相似文献
6.
Global changes of the solar activity can be expressed by the coronal index that is based upon the total irradiance of the coronal 530.3 nm green line from observations at five stations. Daily mean values of the coronal index of solar activity and other well-correlated solar indices are analyzed for the period 1966–1998 covering over three solar cycles. The significant correlation of this index with the sunspot number and the solar flare index have led to an analytical expression which can reproduce the coronal index of solar activity as a function of these parameters. This expression explains well the existence of the two maxima during the solar cycles taking into account the evolution of the magnetic field that can be expressed by some sinusoidal terms during solar maxima and minima. The accuracy between observed and calculated values of the coronal index on a daily basis reaches the value of 71%. It is concluded that the representative character of the coronal index is preserved even when using daily data and can therefore allow us to study long-term, intermediate and short-term variations for the Sun as a star, in association with different periodical solar–terrestrial phenomena useful for space weather studies. 相似文献
7.
The Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) is the first of a series of European satellite instruments monitoring global ozone and other relevant trace constituents in the UV/visible spectral range. On 20 April 1995, the European Space Agency (ESA) launched the GOME from Kourou, French Guyana, aboard the second European Remote Sensing satellite (ERS-2). In order to obtain the geometric albedo from the backscattered terrestrial radiance measurements, a solar irradiance measurement sequence in the spectral range between 240 nm and 790 nm is carried out once every day. The GOME solar irradiance is recorded at a moderate spectral resolution (0.2–0.4 nm), thus providing an excellent opportunity to contribute to the long-term investigation of solar flux variation associated with the 11-year solar activity cycle from space, which started in 1978 with SBUV (Solar Backscatter UV Experiment) observations on Nimbus-7 and covers solar cycles 21 and 22. This paper briefly describes the GOME spectrometer and measurement mode which are relevant to the solar viewing. Preliminary results from the solar irradiance measurements between 1995 and 1997 and comparisons to SSBUV-8 (Shuttle SBUV) in January 1996 are presented. Solar activity indices used as proxies for solar flux variation are often used to find a correlation with observed variation in atmospheric quantities, for instance, total ozone. Initial results from the GOME Mgii (280 nm) and Caii K (393 nm) solar activity index calculation are presented and discussed. The coupling of solar irradiance variability to global change is a current source of scientific and public concern. This study shows that GOME/ERS-2 (1995–2001) and the next generation of European remote sensing instruments, SCIAMACHY and GOME/METOP, have the potential to provide continuity in the measurements of solar irradiance from space well into the next century. 相似文献
8.
George L. Withbroe 《Solar physics》2009,257(1):71-81
The daily images and magnetograms acquired by MDI are a rich source of information about the contributions of different types
of solar regions to variations in the total solar irradiance (TSI). These data have been used to determine the temporal variation
of the MDI irradiance, the mean intensity of the solar disk in the continuum at 676.8 nm. The short-term (days to weeks) variations
of the MDI irradiance and TSI are in excellent agreement with rms differences of 0.011%. This indicates that MDI irradiance
is an excellent proxy for short-term variations of TSI from the competing irradiance contributions of regions causing irradiance
increases, such as plages and bright network, and regions causing irradiance decreases, such as sunspots. However, the long-term
or solar cycle variation of the MDI proxy and TSI differ over the 11-year period studied. The results indicate that the primary
sources of the long-term (several months or more) variations in TSI are regions with magnetic fields between about 80 and
600 G. The results also suggest that the difference in the long-term variations of the MDI proxy and TSI is due to a component
of TSI associated with sectors of the solar spectrum where the contrast in intensity between plages and the quiet Sun is enhanced
(e.g., the UV) compared to the MDI proxy. This is evidence that the long-term variation of TSI is due primarily to solar cycle
variations of the irradiance from these portions of solar spectrum, a finding consistent with modeling calculations indicating
that approximately 60% of the change in TSI between solar minimum and maximum is produced by the UV part of the spectrum shortward
of 400 nm (Solanki and Krivova, Space Sci. Rev. 125, 53, 2006). 相似文献
9.
The study of variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) and spectral irradiance is important for understanding how the Sun affects the Earth’s climate. A data-driven approach is used in this article to analyze and model the temporal variation of the TSI and Mg?ii index back to 1947. In both cases, observed data in the time interval of the satellite era, 1978?–?2013, were used for neural network (NN) model-design and testing. For this particular purpose, the evolution of the solar magnetic field is assumed to be the main driver for the day-to-day irradiance variability. First, we design a model for the Mg?ii index data from F10.7 cm solar radio-flux using the NN approach in the time span of 1978 through 2013. Results of Mg?ii index model were tested using various numbers of hidden nodes. The predicted values of the hidden layer with five nodes correspond well to the composite Mg?ii values. The model reproduces 94% of the variability in the composite Mg?ii index, including the secular decline between the 1996 and 2008 solar cycle minima. Finally, the extrapolation of the Mg?ii index was performed using the developed model from F10.7 cm back to 1947. Similarly, the NN model was designed for TSI variability study over the time span of the satellite era using data from the Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos (PMOD) as a target, and solar activity indices as model inputs. This model was able to reproduce the daily irradiance variations with a correlation coefficient of 0.937 from sunspot and facular measurements in the time span of 1978?–?2013. Finally, the temporal variation of the TSI was analyzed using the designed NN model back to 1947 from the Photometric Sunspot Index (PSI) and the extrapolated Mg?ii index. The extrapolated TSI result indicates that the amplitudes of Solar Cycles 19 and 21 are closely comparable to each other, and Solar Cycle 20 appears to be of lower irradiance during its maximum. 相似文献
10.
Ann T. Mecherikunnel 《Solar physics》1998,177(1-2):11-23
Simultaneous solar total irradiance observations performed by absolute radiometers on board satellites during the quiet-Sun period between solar cycles 21 and 22 (1985–1987), are analyzed to determine the solar total irradiance at 1 AU for the solar minimum. During the quiet-Sun period the total solar irradiance, UV irradiance, and the various solar activity indices show very little fluctuation. However, the absolute value of the solar total irradiance derived from the observations differ within the accuracy of the radiometers used in the measurements. Therefore, the question often arises about a reference value of the solar total irradiance for use in climate models and for computation of geophysical, and atmospheric parameters. This research is conducted as a part of the Solar Electromagnetic Radiation Study for Solar Cycle 22 (SOLERS22). On the basis of the study we recommended a reference value of 1367.0 ± 0.04 W m-2 for the solar total irradiance at 1 AU for a truly quiet Sun. We also find that the total solar irradiance data for the quiet-Sun period reveals strong short-term irradiance variations. 相似文献
11.
Using the smoothed time series of maximum CME speed index for solar cycle 23, it is found that this index, analyzed jointly with six other solar activity indicators, shows a hysteresis phenomenon. The total solar irradiance, coronal index, solar radio flux (10.7?cm), Mg?ii core-to-wing ratio, sunspot area, and H?? flare index follow different paths for the ascending and the descending phases of solar cycle?23, while a saturation effect exists at the maximum phase of the cycle. However, the separations between the paths are not the same for the different solar activity indicators used: the H?? flare index and total solar irradiance depict broad loops, while the Mg?ii core-to-wing ratio and sunspot area depict narrow hysteresis loops. The lag times of these indices with respect to the maximum CME speed index are discussed, confirming that the hysteresis represents a clue in the search for physical processes responsible for changing solar emission. 相似文献
12.
The rate of production of NO in the thermosphere is expected to vary greatly over the course of an 11-year solar cycle because the fluxes of both extreme ultraviolet radiation and auroral particles are known to increase substantially from solar minimum to solar maximum. In the stratosphere, NO participates in a catalytic cycle which constitutes the dominant photochemical destruction mechanism for stratospheric ozone. If appreciable long range transport of NO from the thermosphere to the upper stratosphere occurs, its effects should therefore be manifested in upper atmospheric ozone density variations over the 11-year solar cycle. In this paper, model predictions of the seasonal and latitudinal variations in upper stratospheric O3 associated with NO transport for different levels of solar activity are compared to satellite observations of upper stratospheric ozone abundances. 相似文献
13.
L.H. Ma 《New Astronomy》2009,14(1):1-3
Long-term variations of solar activity significantly affect terrestrial phenomena. Studies have shown cyclic components in solar activity and geophysical phenomena (e.g., the Schwabe, Hale, Gleissberg, and Suess cycles, and a cycle of about 2300 years). In this paper, the wavelet technique is employed to investigate the Gleissberg cycle in solar variations during 5000 BC–1995 AD. Analysis shows time-variable characteristics in the Gleissberg solar cycle over the period; no obvious correlation between the Gleissberg and Suess cycles has been found. 相似文献
14.
Variations of solar total and spectral irradiance are prime solar quantities purported to have an influence on the Earth’s
climate. Quantitative estimates of irradiance over as long a time as possible are needed to judge their effectiveness in forcing
the climate. In order to do this reliably, first the measured record must be reproduced and a feeling for the physics underlying
the irradiance variations must be developed. With the help of this knowledge combined with the available proxy data, reconstructions
of irradiance in the past, generally since the Maunder minimum, are attempted. Here a brief introduction to some of the irradiance
reconstruction work aiming at irradiance on time scales of days to the solar cycle is given, followed by a brief and incomplete
overview of the longer-term reconstructions. 相似文献
15.
D. P. Gregg 《Solar physics》1984,90(1):185-194
This paper describes a novel non-linear oscillator model of the sunspot cycle which accurately reproduces several of the observed qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the real cycle including the long term amplitude modulation pattern. The model accounts for 96% of cycle peak height variance over the period 1859 to 1980. The aim of this work is to assess the potential of such models for forecasting solar activity on decadal and possibly longer time scales. Longer term forecasts may have practical economic significance because of the growing evidence for relationships between solar cycle variations and terrestrial weather and climatic variations (Bandeen and Moran, 1975; Currie, 1980; Williams, 1981). The model predicts that cycle 22 will have an annual mean peak amplitude in the range 25 to 45, the lowest peak activity for 260 yr. 相似文献
16.
The solar irradiante has been found to change by 0.1% over the recent solar cycle. A change of irradiante of about 0.5% is required to effect the Earth's climate. How frequently can a variation of this size be expected? We examine the question of the persistence of non-periodic variations in solar activity. The Hürst exponent, which characterizes the persistence of a time series (Mandelbrot and Wallis, 1969), is evaluated for the series of14 C data for the time interval from about 6000 BC to 1950 AD (Stuiver and Pearson, 1986). We find a constant Hürst exponent, suggesting that solar activity in the frequency range of from 100 to 3000 years includes an important continuum component in addition to the well-known periodic variations. The value we calculate,H ≈ 0.8, is significantly larger than the value of 0.5 that would correspond to variations produced by a white-noise process. This value is in good agreement with the results for the monthly sunspot data reported elsewhere, indicating that the physics that produces the continuum is a correlated random process (Ruzmaikin et al., 1992), and that it is the same type of process over a wide range of time interval lengths. We conclude that the time period over which an irradiance change of 0.5% can be expected to occur is significantly shorter than that which would be expected for variations produced by a white-noise process. The full paper has been submitted to Solar Physics. Part of the research decribed here was carried out by JPL, Caltech under a contract with NASA. 相似文献
17.
A “Solar Dynamo” (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21?–?24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle’s smoothed peak activity will be about \(140 \pm30\) solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of \(135 \pm25\). This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near \(2025.2 \pm1.5\) year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer. 相似文献
18.
What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity
over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio
flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic
rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar
activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot
record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric
with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude
cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres
remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active
latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift
toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant
secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak
evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics
indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following
cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023. 相似文献
19.
We investigate the periodicity in the PMOD composite of the daily total solar irradiance (TSI) from 21 September 1978 to 9 June
2009. Besides the Schwabe cycle period (10.32 years), the quasi-rotation period is found to be statistically significant in
TSI, whose value is about 32 days, longer than that in sunspot activity (27 days), and it intermittently appears around the
sunspot maximum times. The quasi-rotation period in TSI is inferred to be mainly caused by sunspot activity, but to be modulated
by bright features as well. It was previously found that variations of TSI over a Schwabe solar cycle mainly come from the
combination of the sunspots’ blocking and the intensification due to bright faculae, plages, and network elements, with a
slight dominance of the bright-feature effect during the maximum of the Schwabe cycle. For the sunspot-blocking and the bright-feature
effect to contribute to TSI over a Schwabe solar cycle, the former is inferred to lead the latter by 29 days at least. 相似文献
20.
The total solar irradiance varies over a solar cycle of 11 years and maybe over cycles of longer periods. Is the solar diameter variable over time too? A discussion of the solar diameter and its variations must be linked to the limb darkening function (LDF). We introduce a new method to perform high-resolution astrometry of the solar diameter from the ground, through the observations of eclipses, using the luminosity evolution of Baily’s bead and the profile of the lunar edge available from satellite data. This approach unifies the definition of the solar limb with the inflection point of LDF for eclipses and drift-scan or heliometric methods. The method proposed is applied for the videos of the eclipse on 15 January 2010 recorded in Uganda and in India. The result suggests reconsidering the evaluations of the historical eclipses observed with the naked eye. 相似文献