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1.
H. Feidas Ch. Noulopoulou T. Makrogiannis E. Bora-Senta 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2007,87(1-4):155-177
Summary In this study, the trends of annual and seasonal precipitation time series were examined on the basis of measurements of 22
surface stations in Greece for the period 1955–2001, and satellite data during the period 1980–2001. For this purpose, two
statistical tests based on the least square method and one based on the Mann-Kendall test, which is also capable of detecting
the starting year of possible climatic discontinuities or changes, are applied. Greece, in general, presents a clear significant
downward trend in annual precipitation for the period 1955–2001, which is determined by the respective decreasing trend in
winter precipitation. Both winter and annual series exhibit a downward trend with a starting year being 1984. Satellite-derived
precipitation time series could be an alternative means for diagnosing the variability of precipitation in Greece and detecting
trends provided that they have been adjusted by surface measurements in the wider area of interest. The relationship between
precipitation variability in Greece and atmospheric circulation was also examined using correlation analysis with three circulation
indices: the well-known North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), a Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI) and a new Mediterranean
Circulation Index (MCI). NAOI is the index that presented the most interesting correlation with winter, summer and annual
precipitation in Greece, whereas the MOI and MCI were found to explain a significant proportion of annual and summer precipitation
variability, respectively. The observed downward trend in winter and annual precipitation in Greece is linked mainly to a
rising trend in the hemispheric circulation modes of the NAO, which are connected with the Mediterranean Oscillation Index. 相似文献
2.
Summary ?The variability of the winter mean precipitation observed at 40 rainfall stations in Emilia-Romagna (a region in northern
Italy) from 1960 to 1995 is examined. The results are compared with those obtained for the whole of Italy using records from
32 stations. Temporal variability of the time series is investigated by means of Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests, in order
to estimate the presence of trends and “change points”. Before analysis the original precipitation data set have been tested
to detect the inhomogeneity points, using the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT). Almost all stations situated in Emilia
Romagna exhibit a significant decreasing trend in winter precipitation during the 1960–1995 period. The same characteristics
are revealed, more significant in the northern and central part of the region, when the stations for all Italy are analysed.
A significant downward shift in the winter precipitation is detected through the Pettitt test in Emilia Romagna, around 1980 at some stations, while the rest of the stations reveal the shift point occurrence around 1985. A significant downward shift in the winter precipitation is detected around 1985, when analysing the time series for all Italy. Spatial variability of winter precipitation is studied using the Empirical
Orthogonal Function. The first pattern indicates that a common large-scale process could be responsible for the winter precipitation
variability. The second EOF pattern shows an opposite sign of climate variability, which highlights the influence of relief
on the precipitation regime. The time series associated with the first precipitation pattern (PC1) at both scales emphasises
a significant decreasing trend and a downward shift point around 1985. The internal structure analysis of the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) index during the 1960–1995 period reveals a significant increasing trend and an upward shift around 1980.
Strong correlation is also detected between PC1 (Emilia Romagna and at the scale of all Italy) and the NAO index. Thus, the
changes detected in the winter precipitation around 1985 could be due to an intensification of the positive phase of the [NAO],
especially after 1980.
Received March 23, 2001; revised February 20, 2002; accepted March 3, 2002 相似文献
3.
Division and evolution of drought and flood phases during the latest 200 years in eastern China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Based on the past 200-year graded data of dryness/wetness in eastern China (24 stations), five phases to show the floods and droughts have been objectively divided by using the approach of cluster analysis of a sequential sample. The characteristics of flood/drought evolution have been described and explained. It is concluded that the floods or droughts occurred more often for the past two centuries, and the normal phase was seldom seen in eastern China. The transitions between floods and droughts are frequently of jumping feature. The extent and the frequency of serious drought or heavy flood in eastern China tended to expand and increase significantly in the last 50 years. Finally, by using the Walsh power spectrum, the periodicity of dryness/wetness graded series has been analysed. It is found that there exist the 2－9 year high-frequency fluctuations in eastern China. 相似文献
4.
5.
D. Gellens 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2000,66(1-2):117-129
Summary
k-day extreme precipitation depths (k=1,2,3, … 30) for the climatological network of Belgium (165 stations) are analysed to detect a possible evolution in the
occurrence of extreme rainfall events during the 1951–1995 reference period. The calendar year and the hydrological summer
and winter are considered separately. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient shows a strong spatial correlation between extreme
k-day precipitation events, depending on the time of the year (lower during summer than during winter) and increasing with
k. In some cases the distances of de-correlation exceed 200 km which is comparable to the size of the country. Due to this
correlation, tests for trends have been carried out on the leading principal components (PC) derived from the covariance matrix.
Various PC selection rules have been applied to identify the number of components to analyse. The number of components needed
to reproduce a given proportion of the total variance varies, with larger values for summer than for winter and a decrease
with growing k. The Fisher test is used as a global test. It combines the individual Mann-Kendall trend tests carried out on the selected
PC scores. Significant trends have been found in extreme winter k-day precipitation for all the values of k and none in extreme summer precipitation. The results for the annual k-day precipitation depths are between those for the two seasons: no trend for small k because summer events dominate and a significant trend for k larger than 7 due to the winter events. Analysis of a few stations with long-term series shows no significant trend for the
period 1910–1995, these series also reproduce almost the same trends as those found for the shorter 1951–1995 period.
Received April 23, 1999 Revised December 6, 1999 相似文献
6.
Steven A. Mauget 《Climatic change》2006,78(2-4):317-340
Intra- to multi-decadal (IMD) variation in terrestrial precipitation during 1901–98 was evaluated here by sampling annual precipitation rankings over 6–30 year moving time windows and converting those rankings to Mann-Whitney U statistics. Those U statistics were then used to identify the most significant concentrations of wet and dry years relative to a null hypothesis that assumes stationary climate variability. This time series analysis approach served as the basis of a climate survey method used to identify IMD precipitation regimes over continental areas, and was also used to evaluate IMD variation in time series of annual precipitation spatially averaged over those areas. These methods showed a highly significant incidence of wet years over North America during 1972–98, with 8 of the 10 wettest years of 1901–98 occurring during that 27-year period. A comparably significant incidence of late century wetness was also found over a northern Europe grid region, with 7 of the 10 wettest years occurring during 1978–98. Although significant wet and dry regimes were also found over other land areas in the last decades of the 20th century, the late century North American and northern European wet periods stood out as the most statistically significant found here during 1901–98. It is suggested that these recent wet periods are actually terrestrial evidence of a single multi-decadal precipitation mode extending across the North Atlantic, and the most observable evidence of an even broader pattern of recent North Atlantic climate change. 相似文献
7.
Homogeneous time series of atmospheric precipitation with corrected systematic errors of measurements at 100 stations in Russia
for the period of 1936–2000 are obtained. Combined effects are considered of all kinds of systematic errors of standard network
precipitation-measuring instruments (the raingauge with the Nifer shield and the Tret’yakov raingauge) on the measured precipitation
totals. Comparative analysis is carried out of the measured and corrected long-term mean characteristics of precipitation
amounts (annual totals, warm and cold season totals, and different types of precipitation). On the basis of the obtained archives
of precipitation homogeneous time series, linear trends are estimated for the period under consideration with estimation of
their statistical significance. Schematic charts are plotted and analyzed of time changes in the annual precipitation amounts
and in the amounts of different types of precipitation. 相似文献
8.
Summary Recent dry years (combined dry winter and summer months) within the UK (2005 and 2006) have enhanced concerns relating to
long term water resources and future water provision in large conurbations. This paper examines the mechanisms responsible
for precipitation variability for five different areas in Edinburgh (precipitation regions) using composite historic precipitation
records for the period 1861–2005. Trend analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) were undertaken to examine precipitation
variability over time and space. Annual correlation co-efficients were derived for relationships between precipitation areas,
atmospheric–oceanographic variations and geographic parameters. Stepwise regression models were constructed to specify annual
precipitation, through atmospheric variations, for each of the precipitation areas. Significant downward trends in precipitation
(p < 0.05) were noted in two out of the five precipitation areas, with one principal component representing precipitation variability
over Edinburgh and the Pentland Hills. Precipitation variability is best explained by fluctuations in pressure, altitude and
proximity to coast. Precipitation trends cannot be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation patterns.
Authors’ addresses: N. Macdonald, Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZT, United Kingdom; I.
D. Phillips, J. Thorpe, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston B15 2TT,
United Kingdom. 相似文献
9.
Precipitation in Italy from 1833 to 1996 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7
Summary Series of annual and seasonal precipitation from 32 stations, distributed over all Italian territory and divided in two groups
climatically homogeneous, were studied for the period 1833–1996. The series were checked for homogeneity and the time series
analysis was performed with the Mann Kendall test and its progressive application according to Sneyers (1990). The results
show considerably different trends for different seasons and zones. On a yearly basis a decreasing trend is present over all
Italy, but it is statistically significant only in the Central-South. On a seasonal basis a decreasing trend is significant
only for spring in Central-South, and for autumn in the North.
Received June 29, 1998 Revised October 16, 1998 相似文献
10.
Scaling behaviors of precipitation over China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Scaling behaviors in the precipitation time series derived from 1951 to 2009 over China are investigated by detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method. The results show that there exists long-term memory for the precipitation time series in some stations, where the values of the scaling exponent α are less than 0.62, implying weak persistence characteristics. The values of scaling exponent in other stations indicate random behaviors. In addition, the scaling exponent α in precipitation records varies from station to station over China. A numerical test is made to verify the significance in DFA exponents by shuffling the data records many times. We think it is significant when the values of scaling exponent before shuffled precipitation records are larger than the interval threshold for 95 % confidence level after shuffling precipitation records many times. By comparison, the daily precipitation records exhibit weak positively long-range correlation in a power law fashion mainly at the stations taking on zonal distributions in south China, upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River, northern part of northeast China. This may be related to the subtropical high. Furthermore, the values of scaling exponent which cannot pass the significance test do not show a clear distribution pattern. It seems that the stations are mainly distributed in coastal areas, southwest China, and southern part of north China. In fact, many complicated factors may affect the scaling behaviors of precipitation such as the system of the east and south Asian monsoon, the interaction between sea and land, and the big landform of the Tibetan Plateau. These results may provide a better prerequisite to long-term predictor of precipitation time series for different regions over China. 相似文献
11.
近百年全球平均地面气温准周期信号及其长期演变特征的分析 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
应用奇异谱分析(SSA)方法,对全球及南北半球近100多年(1856～1997年)逐月地面气温距平序列的年际变化准周期性进行诊断分析,结果表明,全球平均气温序列中以准5～6年和准4年周期振荡最显著,其次是准两年周期振荡.各种准周期振荡年代际演变特征及其变率的阶段性,不但表现在振幅上,而且其波数亦很明显.上述特征在全球、南北半球都各有明显的差异.奇异交叉谱分析(SCSA)表明,全球平均地面气温的年际振荡与气候系统中其他各子系统所隐含的准周期信号具有各种耦合关系,尤其表现在与Nino区海温或南方涛动指数中的准周期信号的耦合关系上. 相似文献
12.
Daniel Steiner Andreas Pauling Samuel U. Nussbaumer Atle Nesje Jürg Luterbacher Heinz Wanner Heinz J. Zumbühl 《Climatic change》2008,90(4):413-441
A nonlinear backpropagation network (BPN) has been trained with high-resolution multiproxy reconstructions of temperature
and precipitation (input data) and glacier length variations of the Alpine Lower Grindelwald Glacier, Switzerland (output
data). The model was then forced with two regional climate scenarios of temperature and precipitation derived from a probabilistic
approach: The first scenario (“no change”) assumes no changes in temperature and precipitation for the 2000–2050 period compared
to the 1970–2000 mean. In the second scenario (“combined forcing”) linear warming rates of 0.036–0.054°C per year and changing
precipitation rates between −17% and +8% compared to the 1970–2000 mean have been used for the 2000–2050 period. In the first
case the Lower Grindelwald Glacier shows a continuous retreat until the 2020s when it reaches an equilibrium followed by a
minor advance. For the second scenario a strong and continuous retreat of approximately −30 m/year since the 1990s has been
modelled. By processing the used climate parameters with a sensitivity analysis based on neural networks we investigate the
relative importance of different climate configurations for the Lower Grindelwald Glacier during four well-documented historical
advance (1590–1610, 1690–1720, 1760–1780, 1810–1820) and retreat periods (1640–1665, 1780–1810, 1860–1880, 1945–1970). It
is shown that different combinations of seasonal temperature and precipitation have led to glacier variations. In a similar
manner, we establish the significance of precipitation and temperature for the well-known early eighteenth century advance
and the twentieth century retreat of Nigardsbreen, a glacier in western Norway. We show that the maritime Nigardsbreen Glacier
is more influenced by winter and/or spring precipitation than the Lower Grindelwald Glacier. 相似文献
13.
Jianping Guo Yan Yan Dandan Chen Yanmin Lv Yi Han Xiaoran Guo Lin Liu Yucong Miao Tianmeng Chen Ji Nie Panmao Zhai 《Climate Dynamics》2020,54(9):3977-3989
Consensus has been reached that precipitation extremes vary proportionally with global warming. Nevertheless, the underlying cause and magnitude of these factors affecting their relationships remain highly debated. To elucidate the complex relationship between precipitation extremes and temperature in China during the warm seasons (May through September), a 60-year (1958–2017) record of hourly rain gauge measurements, in combination with surface air temperature, RH, precipitable water (PW), and convective available potential energy (CAPE) collected from 120 radiosonde stations were examined. Spatially, the scaling relationship between precipitation extremes and temperature exhibits a large geographic difference across China. In particular, the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) and sub-CC relationships tend to occur in northwest (ROI-N) and southeast China (ROI-S), whereas the super-CC relationship is found to mainly concentrates in central China (ROI-C). Additionally, the response of precipitation extremes to temperature becomes more sensitive as precipitation intensity increases, shifting from CC to super-CC at a certain point of inflection that varies by geographic regions. This shift occurs at approximately 15 °C in ROI-C and ROI-N, but at around 20 °C in ROI-S. Within the temperature range of the super-CC slope, the PW rises with the increases in temperature, whereas the CAPE decreases with rising temperature, which is contrary to the monotonic scaling of precipitation with temperature. From the perspective of interannual variation, the precipitation extremes correlate positively with temperature. This further confirms the notion that global warming, through jointly affecting PW and CAPE, is able to considerably regulate precipitation extremes. 相似文献
14.
Self-organizing map (SOM) is used to simulate summer daily precipitation over the Yangtze–Huaihe river basin in Eastern China, including future projections. SOM shows good behaviors in terms of probability distribution of daily rainfall and spatial distribution of rainfall indices, as well as consistency of multi-model simulations. Under RCP4.5 Scenario, daily rainfall at most sites (63%) is projected to shift towards larger values. For the early 21st century (2016–2035), precipitation in the central basin increases, yet decreases occur over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as well as a part of its southeast area. For the late 21st century (2081–2100), the mean precipitation and extreme indices experience an overall increase except for a few southeast stations. The total precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in its south area is projected to increase from 7% at 1.5 °C global warming to 11% at 2 °C, while the intensity enhancement is more significant in southern and western sites of the domain. A clustering allows to regroup all SOM nodes into four distinct regimes. Such regional synoptic regimes show remarkable stability for future climate. The overall intensification of precipitation in future climate is linked to the occurrence-frequency rise of a wet regime which brings longitudinally closer the South Asia High (eastward extended) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (westward extended), as well as the reduction of a dry pattern which makes the two atmospheric centers of action move away from each other. 相似文献
15.
Climatic regime shift and decadal anomalous events in China 总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15
Climatic time series from historical documents and instrumental records from China showed temporal and regional patterns in
the last two to three centuries, including two multidecadal oscillations at quasi-20-year and quasi-70-year timescales revealed
by signal analysis from wavelet transform. Climatic anomalous events on the decadal timescale were identified based on the
two oscillations when their positive (or negative) phases coincide with each other to amplify amplitude. The coldest event
occurred in the decade of 1965–1975 in eastern China, while the periods of 1920–1930, 1940–1950, and 1988–2000 appeared to
be warmer in most parts of China. For the precipitation series in northern China, the dry anomalous event was found in the
late 1920s, while the wet anomalous event occurred in the 1950s. A severe drought in 1927–1929 in northern China coincided
with the anomalous warm and dry decade, caused large-scale famine in nine provinces over northern China. Climatic anomalous
events with a warm-dry or cold-wet association in the physical climate system would potentially cause severe negative impacts
on natural ecosystem in the key vulnerable region over northern China. The spatial pattern of summer rainfall anomalies in
the eastern China monsoon region showed an opposite variations in phase between the Yellow River Valley (North China) and
the mid-low Yangtze River Valley as well as accompanied the shift of the northernmost monsoon boundary. Climatic regime shifts
for different time points in the last 200 years were identified. In North China, transitions from dry to wet periods occurred
around 1800, 1875, and 1940 while the transitions from wet to dry periods appeared around 1840, 1910, and the late 1970s.
The reversal transition in these time points can also be found in the lower Yangtze River. Climatic regime shifts in China
were linked to the interaction of mid- and low latitude atmospheric circulations (the westerly flow and the monsoon flow)
when they cross the Tibetan Plateau in East Asia. 相似文献
16.
T&#;mea Kocsis Ilona Kov&#;cs-Sz&#;kely Ang&#;la Anda 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2020,139(3):849-859
This study aims to investigate the precipitation trends in Keszthely (Western Hungary, Central Europe) through an examination of historical climate data covering the past almost one and a half centuries. Pettitt’s test for homogeneity was employed to detect change points in the time series of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation records. Change points and monotonic trends were analysed separately in annual, seasonal and monthly time series of precipitation. While no break points could be detected in the annual precipitation series, a significant decreasing trend of 0.2–0.7 mm/year was highlighted statistically using the autocorrelated Mann-Kendall trend test. Significant change points were found in those time series in which significant tendencies had been detected in previous studies. These points fell in spring and winter for the seasonal series, and October for the monthly series. The question therefore arises of whether these trends are the result of a shift in the mean. The downward and upward shift in the mean in the case of spring and winter seasonal amounts, respectively, leads to a suspicion that changes in precipitation are also in progress in these seasons. The study concludes that homogeneity tests are of great importance in such analyses, because they may help to avoid false trend detections. 相似文献
17.
Behnam Ababaei Teymour Sohrabi Farhad Mirzaei 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,118(1-2):195-202
Most stochastic weather generators have their focus on precipitation because it is the most important variable affecting environmental processes. One of the methods to reproduce the precipitation occurrence time series is to use a Markov process. But, in addition to the simulation of short-term autocorrelations in one station, it is sometimes important to preserve the spatial linear correlations (SLC) between neighboring stations as well. In this research, an extension of one-site Markov models was proposed to preserve the SLC between neighboring stations. Qazvin station was utilized as the reference station and Takestan (TK), Magsal, Nirougah, and Taleghan stations were used as the target stations. The performances of different models were assessed in relation to the simulation of dry and wet spells and short-term dependencies in precipitation time series. The results revealed that in TK station, a Markov model with a first-order spatial model could be selected as the best model, while in the other stations, a model with the order of two or three could be selected. The selected (i.e., best) models were assessed in relation to preserving the SLC between neighboring stations. The results depicted that these models were very capable in preserving the SLC between the reference station and any of the target stations. But, their performances were weaker when the SLC between the other stations were compared. In order to resolve this issue, spatially correlated random numbers were utilized instead of independent random numbers while generating synthetic time series using the Markov models. Although this method slightly reduced the model performances in relation to dry and wet spells and short-term dependencies, the improvements related to the simulation of the SLC between the other stations were substantial. 相似文献
18.
Last Glacial Maximum climate of the former Soviet Union and Mongolia reconstructed from pollen and plant macrofossil data 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
P. E. Tarasov O. Peyron J. Guiot S. Brewer V. S. Volkova L. G. Bezusko N. I. Dorofeyuk E. V. Kvavadze I. M. Osipova N. K. Panova 《Climate Dynamics》1999,15(3):227-240
An improved concept of the best analogues method was used to reconstruct the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate from a set
of botanical records from the former Soviet Union and Mongolia. Terrestrial pollen and macrofossil taxa were grouped into
broad classes – plant functional types (PFTs), defined by the ecological and climatic parameters used in the BIOME1 model.
PFT scores were then calibrated in terms of modern climate using 1245 surface pollen spectra from Eurasia and North America.
In contrast to individual taxa, which exhibit great variability and may not be present in the palaeoassemblages, even in suitable
climates, PFTs are more characteristic of the vegetation types. The modified method thus allows climate reconstruction at
time intervals with partial direct analogues of modern vegetation (e.g. the LGM). At 18 kBP, mean temperatures were 20–29 °C
colder than today in winter and 5–11 °C colder in summer in European Russia and Ukraine. Sites from western Georgia show negative,
but moderate temperature anomalies compared to today: 8–11 °C in January and 5–7 °C in July. LGM winters were 7–15 °C colder
and summers were 1–7 °C colder in Siberia and Mongolia. Annual precipitation sums were 50–750 mm lower than today across northern
Eurasia, suggesting a weakening of the Atlantic and Pacific influences. Reconstructed drought index shows much drier LGM conditions
in northern and mid-latitude Russia, but similar to or slightly wetter than today around the Black Sea and in Mongolia, suggesting
compensation of precipitation losses by lower-than-present evaporation.
Received: 11 May 1998 / Accepted: 25 September 1998 相似文献
19.
The peculiarities are studied of variations of average annual and extreme levels in the Russian sector of the Vistula Lagoon
situated in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea. The main regularity of interannual variations of averaged characteristics
of the lagoon level is a steady trend towards their increase: the mean level increase is characterized by the linear trend
increasing depending on the length of the series, from 1.7–1.9 mm/year (Baltiisk, 1860–2006; Kaliningrad, 1901–2006) to 3.6–3.7
mm/year (Kaliningrad, Baltiisk, Krasnoflotskoe, 1959–2006). On the sea coast (Pionerskii, 1959–2006), this trend in the second
half of the 20th century amounted to 2.6 mm/year only. The obtained results illustrate the response of level variations in
the Baltic Sea lagoons to the global climate warming and indicate that the long-term evolution of average characteristics
of the Vistula Lagoon level cannot be explained only by the increase in the level of the World Ocean and adjacent seas intensified
in recent decades but is caused by the changes in the wind load and precipitation in the catchment basin. 相似文献
20.
J. Jaagus 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2006,83(1-4):77-88
Summary Trends in the time series of air temperature, precipitation, snow cover duration and onset of climatic seasons at ten stations
in Estonia during 1951–2000 are analysed. Using the conditional Mann-Kendall test, these trends are compared with trends in
the characteristics of large-scale atmospheric circulation: the NAO and AO indices, frequency of circulation forms according
to the Vangengeim-Girs’ classification, and the northern hemisphere teleconnection indices. The objective of the study is
to estimate the influence of trends in circulation on climate changes in Estonia. Statistically significant increasing trends
in air temperature are detected in January, February, March, April and May, in winter (DJF), spring (MAM) and in the cold
period (NDJFM). The trends in precipitation, as a rule, differ from station to station. Increasing trends are present during
the cold half-year – from October until March – and also in June. Snow cover duration has decreased in Estonia by 17–20 days
inland and by 21–36 days on the coast. The onsets of early spring and spring have shifted to an earlier date. Some important
changes have occurred in the parameters of atmospheric circulation during 1951–2000. Intensity of zonal circulation, i.e.
westerlies, has increased during the cold period, especially in February and March. Results of the conditional Mann-Kendall
test indicate that the intensification of westerlies in winter is significantly related to climate changes in winter and also
in spring. A negative trend in the East Atlantic Jet (EJ) index, i.e. the weakening of the westerlies in May has caused warming
during that month. Decrease in northerly circulation, i.e. in frequency of circulation form C and in East Atlantic/West Russia
teleconnection index (EW) is related to an increase in precipitation in October. 相似文献