共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 93 毫秒
1.
Subrata K. Chakrabarti 《Ocean Engineering》1989,16(4)
The design and performance of an offshore structure depends largely upon the response of the structure to the environmental loading such as waves. The extreme response chosen for the design of a structure should meet its lifetime response, operational response as well as the fatigue damage. The failure of the structural member may be caused by the maximum instantaneous stress experienced by the member due to a given environment. This is considered short-term as opposed to long-term or fatigue damage. The short-term response statistics are obtained on the basis of one particular seastate. Since this seastate is invariably high, nonlinearity in the excitation and response of the structure is almost invariably present. The general nonlinear problem in the extreme response prediction is largely unsolved. Response characteristics are often obtained from the perturbation methods and equivalent linearization techniques. Unlike nonlinear problems, these methods greatly simplify the analysis for extreme values. This paper reviews the available approximation techniques in the response computation and the limits of their applicability in a design situation. Results are illustrated so that a designer may evaluate the suitability of a method in a particular design condition. 相似文献
2.
This paper addresses some important issues related to the estimation of long-term extreme responses of marine structures. Several convolution models to establish the long-term distribution of a marine structure response parameter are available in the literature. These methods are typically based either on all short-term peaks, all extreme short-term peaks or all short-term upcrossing rates. The main assumptions and simplifications of the five models most usually found in the literature are discussed in this paper. A linear single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system along with a bi-lognormal probability model for significant wave heights and zero-crossing wave periods have been used for numerical tests. An improved approach to efficiently evaluate the long-term convolution integrals is also proposed in this paper. It is shown that a combination of the Inverse First Order Reliability Method (IFORM) and an Importance Sampling Monte Carlo Simulation (ISMCS) approach can be used to obtain a very good result for the exact solution of long-term integrals. 相似文献
3.
The paper describes a novel approach to the problem of estimating the extreme response statistics of a drag-dominated offshore structure exhibiting a pronounced dynamic behaviour when subjected to harsh weather conditions. It is shown that the key quantity for extreme response prediction is the mean upcrossing rate function, which can be simply extracted from simulated response time histories. A commonly adopted practice for obtaining adequate extremes for design purposes requires the execution of 20 or more 3-h time domain analyses for several extreme sea states. For early phase considerations, it would be convenient if extremes of a reasonable accuracy could be obtained based on shorter and fewer simulations. The aim of the work reported in the present paper has therefore been to develop specific methods which make it possible to extract the necessary information about the extreme response from relatively short time histories.The method proposed in this paper opens up the possibility to predict simply and efficiently both short-term and long-term extreme response statistics. The results presented are based on extensive simulation results for the Kvitebjørn jacket structure, in operation on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Specifically, deck response time histories for different sea states simulated from an MDOF model were used as the basis for our analyses. 相似文献
4.
This work presents a semi-analytical methodology to select design environmental conditions based on long-term cross-section utilization ratios at the TDZ (Touchdown Zone) for steel catenary risers. This approach uses simplified analytical models to calculate time series of short-term utilization ratios, defined according to the DnV-OS-F201 (2010) standard. After processing these time series, long-term utilization ratios can be determined with relatively low computational cost. By evaluating long-term utilization ratios, it is possible to define short-term design environmental conditions, defined as short-term conditions for which the extreme riser responses are equal to the long-term ones. This kind of methodology may represent a substantial change to the traditional focus given to riser design, which is based on responses obtained from extreme environmental conditions, instead of on the extreme responses. 相似文献
5.
《中国海洋工程》2021,(3)
The fish cage design requires accurate predictions of long-term extreme loads and responses. Compared with the time-consuming full long-term analysis method integrating all the probability distribution of the short-term extremes,the environmental contour method gains much attention in predicting the long-term extreme values due to the less computational effort. This paper investigates the long-term extreme response of a fish cage using the environmental contour method. The fish cage is numerically simulated based on the lumped-mass method and the curved beam theory. Based on the one-dimensional(1D) and two-dimensional(2D) environmental contour, the extreme responses,including the surge and heave motions, mooring force, and vertical bending of the floater, are predicted for different return periods and compared with the full long-term analysis results. Results indicate that the 1D method greatly underestimates the extreme values. The 2D environmental contour method with a higher percentile level, namely90%, provides reasonable estimations and seems to be suitable for the long-term value analysis. Sensitivity studies show that the mooring arrangement and the bending stiffness have great effects on the bending moment and the mooring force and the mooring line pre-tension has minor effects on the fish cage response. 相似文献
6.
Extreme dynamic, non-linear response of fixed platforms using a complete long-term approach 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The general theoretical basis for application of the direct long-term approach to offshore structures with non-Gaussian response is outlined. The key to the method is the determination of the short-term response distribution. Special considerations should be taken, depending on the application, and the Weibull distribution with a special fitting procedure is suggested as a short-term probability model for fixed offshore platforms. The efficiency of the method is improved by introducing smoothing functions for the variation of the Weibull parameters with the seastate.
The method is applied to a jacket and jackup platform. The results show that smoothing functions increase the efficiency considerably. The design storm method compares well with the long-term results for the selected structures, but only the long-term approach yields realistic estimates of the design extreme response when both extreme and resonant seastates contribution to the 100-year response. 相似文献
7.
The design of mooring systems for floating production units usually considers extreme environmental conditions as a primary design parameter. However, in the case of FPSO (Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading) units, the worst response for the mooring system may be associated with other sea state conditions due to the fact that its extreme response may be associated with a resonant period instead of an extreme wave height. The best way to deal with this problem is by performing long-term analysis in order to obtain extreme response estimates. This procedure is computationally very demanding, since many short-term environmental conditions, and their associated stochastic nonlinear time domain numerical simulations of the mooring lines, are required to obtain such estimates. A simplified approach for the long-term analysis is the environmental contour-line design approach. In this paper a Monte Carlo-based integration procedure combined with an interpolation scheme to obtain the parameters of the short-term response distribution is employed to hasten the long-term analysis. Numerical simulations are carried out for an FPSO at three different locations considering a North Sea joint probability distribution for the environmental parameters. The long-term analysis results are compared against those obtained using extreme environmental conditions and environmental contour-line methodology. These results represent the characteristic load effect for the design of mooring systems of floating units using the reliability analysis for mooring line. The results show that the long-term results are usually more critical than those obtained with the other approaches and even different mooring lines can be identified as the critical ones. 相似文献
8.
Alberto Omar Vazquez-Hernandez Gilberto Bruno Ellwanger Luís Volnei Sudati Sagrilo 《Applied Ocean Research》2006,28(6):398-406
The characteristic environmental load effect for the design of mooring systems of floating units can be defined by means of three procedures: (a) the one associated to an extreme sea state with a given return period, (b) the worst one from a set of sea states on a contour line associated to a return period or (c) the extreme one based on response statistics for a long-term period. This work presents the result of a reliability-based partial safety factor calibration study for a LRFD mooring line design criteria considering the three approaches mentioned above. The calibration exercise is applied to three FPSOs considering North Sea environmental conditions and different water depths: 200, 800 and 3000 m. The mooring systems investigated take into account mooring lines made up of chains and polyester ropes. It is shown that, among all cases investigated, the design procedure based on the long-term response is the one that presents less scattered reliability indices around the target level. 相似文献
9.
The paper discusses short- and long-term probability models of ocean waves. The Gaussian theory is reviewed, and nonlinear short-term probability distributions are derived from a narrow band second-order model. The nonlinearity has different impact on different measurement techniques, and this is further demonstrated for wave data from the WAVEMOD Crete measurement campaign and laser data from the North Sea. Finally, we give some examples on how the short-term statistics may be used to estimate the probability distributions for the maximum waves during individual storms as well as in a wave climate described by long-term distributions. 相似文献
10.
Short-term wave design approach of marine structures, using nonlinear time domain simulations, is a design procedure that is recognized by various modern standard codes. One of the most challenging points of this approach is the evaluation of the characteristic extreme values for response parameters used in the design check equations. The most straightforward and recommended way to evaluate a response characteristic value is by fitting an extreme value probability distribution to the N-sample of extreme values extracted from N independent time domain simulations with duration equal to the short-term period indicated by the code, which is usually taken as 3 h. However, this procedure would not be practical for some types of marine structures, such as risers and mooring lines, under numerous design load cases and demanding huge finite element models. A more feasible approach would be to assess the response extreme value distribution using only a single short-term time domain simulation with duration shorter than 3 h. But reduced time simulations always introduce some additional statistical uncertainty into the extreme values estimates. This paper discusses a workable way of properly taking into account the statistical uncertainty associated with the simulation length in the assessment of a characteristic short-term extreme response value based on a single time series. 相似文献
11.
Accurately estimating the mean and extreme wave statistics and better understanding their directional and seasonal variations are of great importance in the planning and designing of ocean and coastal engineering works. Due to the lack of long-term wave measurement data, the analysis of extreme waves is often based on the numerical wave hind-casting results. In this study, the wave climate in the East China Seas (including the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea) for the past 35 years (1979–2013) is hind-casted using a third generation wave model – WAMC4 (Cycle 4 version of WAM model). Two sets of reanalysis wind data from NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) are used to drive the wave model to generate the long-term wave climate. The hind-casted waves are then analysed to study the mean and extreme wave statistics in the study area. The results show that the mean wave heights decrease from south to north and from sea to land in general. The extreme wave heights with return periods of 50 and 100 years in the summer and autumn seasons are significantly higher than those in the other two seasons, mainly due to the effect of typhoon events. The mean wave heights in the winter season have the highest values, mainly due to the effect of winter monsoon winds. The comparison of extreme wave statistics from both wind fields with the field measurements at several nearshore wave observation stations shows that the extreme waves generated by the ECMWF winds are better than those generated by the NCEP winds. The comparison also shows the extreme waves in deep waters are better reproduced than those in shallow waters, which is partly attributed to the limitations of the wave model used. The results presented in this paper provide useful insight into the wave climate in the area of the East China Seas, as well as the effect of wind data resolution on the simulation of long-term waves. 相似文献
12.
Ingo Drummen MingKang Wu Miroslaw Lech Kaminski Torgeir Moan 《Ocean Engineering》2009,36(15-16):1208-1216
Previous studies of response conditioned wave methods have been focused on their applicability to the prediction of extreme nonlinear wave-induced load effects. The results showed that theses methods can be used to accurately and efficiently predict the nonlinear short-term probability distributions for rigid hull responses. This has led us to investigate how response conditioned wave methods can be used for long-term nonlinear fatigue analyses, and with which accuracy this can be done. In this paper we present the results from our investigation. The studies were performed using a container vessel with a length between perpendiculars of 281 m. Calculations were done with a nonlinear strip theory method in which the hull of the vessel was assumed to be rigid. The most likely response wave (MLRW) method was used to condition the waves. Only head seas were considered. We found that the MLRW method under-predicted the long-term fatigue damage by 3%. The method, however, required a simulation time that was approximately three orders of magnitude less than that required for a conventional long-term nonlinear analysis based on random irregular waves. A preliminary investigation showed that due to lacking springing and whipping contributions the MLRW method under-predicted the fatigue damage for a flexible hull by approximately 50%. Several comments about a more accurate extension of the proposed method to flexible hulls are included. 相似文献
13.
This article aims to report important findings on how the asymmetric riser and bilge keel arrangements affect the motion response and green water assessment by using a real FPSO conversion project. Recently, the authors have proposed a practical approach for short-term and long-term green water prediction. In this paper, the method has been further extended to include the effect of truncated bilge keel by using Morrison elements. Numerical studies are conducted focusing on the effect induced by asymmetric riser arrangement and truncated bilge keels. Comparisons of short-term and long-term results between different models indicate that the FPSO’s motion is significantly affected by asymmetrically arranged appendages and attachments in a complicated way. The relative wave elevation is also affected by appendages and attachments, but not the same trend as the motion response. The effect of the asymmetric arrangement of risers and bilge keel on long-term relative wave elevation response has been captured by both traditional contour line approach and response-based analysis, but some discrepancy identified between the results from the two methods indicates the limitation of the traditional contour line approach. 相似文献
14.
《Applied Ocean Research》2007,29(1-2):1-16
Offshore structures are exposed to random wave loading in the ocean environment and hence the probability distribution of the extreme values of their response to wave loading is of great value in the design of these structures. Wave loading on slender members of bottom-supported jacket or jack-up structures is frequently calculated by Morison’s equation. Due to nonlinearity of the drag component of Morison wave loading and also due to intermittency of wave loading on members in the splash zone, the response is often non-Gaussian; therefore, simple techniques for derivation of their extreme response probability distribution are not available. Finite-memory nonlinear systems (FMNS) are extensively used in establishing a simple relationship between the output and input of complicated nonlinear systems. In this paper, it will be shown how the response of an offshore structure exposed to Morison wave loading can be approximated by the response of an equivalent finite-memory nonlinear system. The approximate models can then be used to determine the probability distribution of response extreme values with great efficiency. Part I of this paper is devoted to the development of an efficient FMNS model for offshore structural response while part II is devoted to the validation of the developed models. 相似文献
15.
Reliable design codes are of great importance when constructing new civil engineering concepts such as floating bridges. Previously only a scarce number of floating bridges have been built in rough wave conditions and only limited knowledge of the extreme environmental conditions and the associated extreme response exists. To form a better design basis an increased understanding of the sensitivity in the structural response towards changes in short-crested sea parameters is needed. Furthermore, acquiring the necessary accuracy in simulated extreme response is often a computationally expensive endeavour and the number of simulations needed is often based on experience. The present study investigates the wave-induced short-term extreme response of a simplified end-anchored floating bridge concept for several wave environments with a return period of 100 years. The study includes convergence of the coefficient of variation for the extreme response for different realization lengths as well as number of realizations. The sensitivity in the structural response towards different main wave directions and spreading exponents is investigated and includes both transverse and vertical displacement response spectra and extreme Von Mises stress in the bridge girder cross-section. The extreme response is based on an accuracy of 2% in the coefficient of variation equivalent to 40 3-h realizations and a low sensitivity in the response is found for natural occurring spreading exponents and for main wave directions within 15° from beam sea. 相似文献
16.
17.
This paper considers the problem of estimating long-term predictions of significant wave-height. A method which combines Bayesian methodology and extreme value techniques is adopted. Inferences are based on the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm implemented in an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme. The method is applied to obtain return values of extreme values of significant wave height collected on the northern North Sea. The results are compared with those obtained by Guedes Soares and Scotto [Guedes Soares, C. and Scotto, M.G., 2004. Application of the r-order statistics for long-term predictions of significant wave heights. Coastal Engineering, 51, 387–394]. 相似文献
18.
Marine risers are susceptible to sustained vortex-induced vibration (VIV) because of their slenderness and light damping. Commonly used tools for analyzing VIV and the associated fatigue damage are based on the finite element method and rely on simplifying assumptions on the riser's physical model, the flow conditions, and characteristics of the response. In order to assess the influence of VIV and to ensure the integrity of the riser, field monitoring campaigns are often undertaken wherein data loggers such as strain sensors and/or accelerometers are installed on such risers. Given the recorded riser's dynamic response, empirical techniques can be used in VIV-related fatigue estimation. These empirical techniques make direct use of the measurements and are intrinsically dependent on the actual current profiles. Damage estimation can be undertaken for the different current profiles encountered and can account explicitly even for complex riser response characteristics. With a significant amount of data, “short-term” fatigue damage probability distributions, conditional on current, can be established. If the relative frequency of different current types is known from a separate metocean study, the short-term fatigue damage distributions can be combined with the current distributions to yield an integrated “long-term” fatigue damage model, which then can be used to predict the long-term cumulative fatigue damage for the instrumented riser. Non-parametric statistical techniques (that do not assume a specific function for the underlying distribution as parametric techniques do) are employed to describe the short-term fatigue damage data. In this study, data from the Norwegian Deepwater Programme (NDP) model riser experiments are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of empirical procedures and non-parametric statistics applied to field measurements to predict long-term fatigue damage, life, and probability of fatigue failure. 相似文献
19.
The realistic assessment of an ocean wave energy resource that can be converted to an electrical power at various offshore sites depends upon many factors, and these include estimating the resource recognizing the random nature of the site-specific wave field, and optimizing the power conversion from particular wave energy conversion devices. In order to better account for the uncertainty in wave power resource estimates, conditional probability distribution functions of wave power in a given sea-state are derived. Theoretical expressions for the deep and shallow water limits are derived and the role of spectral width is studied. The theoretical model estimates were compared with the statistics obtained from the wave-by-wave analysis of JONSWAP based ocean wave time-series. It was shown that the narrow-band approximation is appropriate when the variability due to wave period is negligible. The application of the short-term models in evaluating the long-term wave power resource at a site was illustrated using wave data measured off the California coast. The final example illustrates the procedure for incorporating the local wave data and the sea-state model together with a wave energy device to obtain an estimate of the potential wave energy that could be converted into a usable energy resource. 相似文献
20.
Extreme sea levels at European coasts and their changes over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries are considered, including a method to analyze extreme sea levels and to assess their changes in a consistent way at different sites. The approach is based on using a combination of statistical tools and dynamical modelling as well as observational data and scenarios for potential future developments. The analysis is made for both time series of extreme sea levels and individually for the different components contributing to the extremes comprising (i) mean sea level changes, (ii) wind waves and storm surges and (iii), for relevant places, river flows. It is found that while regionally results vary in detail, some general inferences can be obtained. In particular it is found, that extreme sea levels show pronounced short-term and long-term variability partly associated with seasonal and nodal tidal cycles. Long-term trends are mostly associated with corresponding mean sea level changes while changes in wave and storm surge climate mostly contribute to inter-annual and decadal variability, but do not show substantial long-term trends. It is expected that this situation will continue for the upcoming decades and that long-term variability dominates over long-term trends at least for the coming decades. 相似文献