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1.
State‐of‐the‐art methods for the assessment of building fragility consider the structural capacity and seismic demand variability in the estimation of the probability of exceeding different damage states. However, questions remain regarding the appropriate treatment of such sources of uncertainty from a statistical significance perspective. In this study, material, geometrical and mechanical properties of a number of building classes are simulated by means of a Monte Carlo sampling process in which the statistical distribution of the aforementioned parameters is taken into consideration. Record selection is performed in accordance with hazard‐consistent distributions of a comprehensive set of intensity measures, and issues related with sufficiency, efficiency, predictability and scaling robustness are addressed. Based on the appraised minimum number of ground motion records required to achieve statistically meaningful estimates of response variability conditioned on different levels of seismic intensity, the concept of conditional fragility functions is presented. These functions translate the probability of exceeding a set of damage states as a function of a secondary sufficient intensity measure, when records are selected and scaled for a particular level of primary seismic intensity parameter. It is demonstrated that this process allows a hazard‐consistent and statistically meaningful representation of uncertainty and correlation in the estimation of intensity‐dependent damage exceedance probabilities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
The assessment of earthquake loss often requires the definition of a relation between a measure of damage and a quantity of loss, usually achieved through the employment of a damage‐to‐loss model. These models are frequently characterized by a large variability, which inevitably increases the uncertainty in the vulnerability assessment and earthquake loss estimation. This study provides an insight on the development of damage‐to‐loss functions for moment‐frame reinforced concrete buildings through an analytical methodology. Tri‐dimensional finite element models of existing reinforced concrete buildings were subjected to a number of ground motion records compatible with the seismicity in the region of interest, through nonlinear dynamic analysis. These results were used to assess, for a number of damage states, the probability distribution of loss ratio, taking into consideration member damage and different repair techniques, as well as to derive sets of fragility functions. Then, a vulnerability model (in terms of the ratio of cost of repair to cost of replacement, conditional on the level of ground shaking intensity) was derived and compared with the vulnerability functions obtained through the combination of various damage‐to‐loss models with the set of fragility functions developed herein. In order to provide realistic estimates of economic losses due to seismic action, a comprehensive study on repair costs using current Portuguese market values was also carried out. The results of this study highlight important issues in the derivation of vulnerability functions, which are a fundamental component for an adequate seismic risk assessment. © 2015 The Authors. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
This paper evaluates a recent record selection and scaling procedure of the authors that can determine the probabilistic structural response of buildings behaving either in the elastic or post‐elastic range. This feature marks a significant strength on the procedure as the probabilistic structural response distribution conveys important information on probability‐based damage assessment. The paper presents case studies that show the utilization of the proposed record selection and scaling procedure as a tool for the estimation of damage states and derivation of site‐specific and region‐specific fragility functions. The method can be used to describe exceedance probabilities of damage limits under a certain target hazard level with known annual exceedance rate (via probabilistic seismic hazard assessment). Thus, the resulting fragility models can relate the seismicity of the region (or a site) with the resulting building performance in a more accurate manner. Under this context, this simple and computationally efficient record selection and scaling procedure can be benefitted significantly by probability‐based risk assessment methods that have started to be considered as indispensable for developing robust earthquake loss models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
When performing loss assessment of a geographically dispersed building portfolio, the response or loss (fragility or vulnerability) function of any given archetype building is typically considered to be a consistent property of the building itself. On the other hand, recent advances in record selection have shown that the seismic response of a structure is, in general, dependent on the nature of the hazard at the site of interest. This apparent contradiction begs the question: Are building fragility and vulnerability functions independent of site, and if not, what can be done to avoid having to reassess them for each site of interest? In the following, we show that there is a non‐negligible influence of the site, the degree of which depends on the intensity measure adopted for assessment. Employing a single‐period (e.g., first‐mode), spectral acceleration would require careful record selection at each site and result to significant site‐to‐site variability of the fragility or vulnerability function. On the other hand, an intensity measure comprising the geometric mean of multiple spectral accelerations considerably reduces such variability. In tandem with a conditional spectrum record selection that accounts for multiple sites, it can offer a viable approach for incorporating the effect of site dependence into fragility and vulnerability estimates. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
The aim of this paper is to adjust behaviour models for each class of structure for vulnerability assessment by using ambient vibration. A simple model based on frequencies, mode shapes and damping, taken from ambient vibrations, allows computation of the response of the structures and comparison of inter‐storey drifts with the limits found in the literature for the slight damage grade, considered here as the limit of elastic behaviour. Two complete methodologies for building fragility curves are proposed: (1) using a multi‐degree of freedom system including higher modes and full seismic ground‐motion and (2) using a single‐degree of freedom model considering the fundamental mode f0 of the structure and ground‐motion displacement response spectra SD(f0). These two methods were applied to the city of Grenoble, where 60 buildings were studied. Fragility curves for slight damage were derived for the various masonry and reinforced concrete classes of buildings. A site‐specific earthquake scenario, taking into account local site conditions, was considered, corresponding to an ML = 5.5 earthquake at a distance of 15 km. The results show the benefits of using experimental models to reduce variability of the slight damage fragility curve. Moreover, by introducing the experimental modal model of the buildings, it is possible to improve seismic risk assessment at an overall scale (the city) or a local scale (the building) for the first damage grade (slight damage). This level of damage, of great interest for moderate seismic‐prone regions, may contribute to the seismic loss assessment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
As a result of population growth and consequent urbanization, the number of high‐rise buildings is rapidly growing worldwide resulting in increased exposure to multiple‐scenario earthquakes and associated risk. The wide range in frequency contents of possible strong ground motions can have an impact on the seismic response, vulnerability and limit states definitions of RC high‐rise wall structures. Motivated by the pressing need to derive more accurate fragility relations to be used in seismic risk assessment and mitigation of such structures, a methodology is proposed to obtain reliable, Seismic Scenario‐Structure‐Based (SSSB) definitions of limit state criteria. A 30‐story wall building, located in a multi‐seismic scenario study region, is utilized to illustrate the methodology. The building is designed following modern codes and then modeled using nonlinear fiber‐based approach. Uncertainty in ground motions is accounted for by the selection of forty real earthquake records representing two seismic scenarios. Seismic scenario‐based building local response at increasing earthquake intensities is mapped using Multi‐Record Incremental Dynamic Analyses (MRIDAs) with a new scalar intensity measure. Net Inter‐Story Drift (NISD) is selected as a global damage measure based on a parametric study involving seven buildings ranging from 20 to 50 stories. This damage measure is used to link local damage events, including shear, to global response under different seismic scenarios. While the study concludes by proposing SSSB limit state criteria for the sample building, the proposed methodology arrives at a reliable definition of limit state criteria for an inventory of RC high‐rise wall buildings under multiple earthquake scenarios. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacity- demand-diagram method. The spectral displacement (Sd) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between Sd and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.  相似文献   

8.
This paper presents a new methodology based on structural performance to determine uniform fragility design spectra, i.e., spectra with the same probability of exceedance of a performance level for a given seismic intensity. The design spectra calculated with this methodology provide directly the lateral strength, in terms of yield‐ pseudo‐accelerations, associated with the rate of exceedance of a specific ductility characterizing the performance level for which the structures will be designed. This procedure involves the assessment of the seismic hazard using a large enough number of seismic records of several magnitudes; these records are simulated with an improved empirical Green function method. The statistics of the performance of a single degree of freedom system are obtained using Monte Carlo simulation considering the seismic demand, the fundamental period, and the strength of the structure as uncertain variables. With these results, the conditional probability that a structure exceeds a specific performance level is obtained. The authors consider that the proposed procedure is a significant improvement to others considered in the literature and a useful research tool for the further development of uniform fragility spectra that can be used for the performance‐based seismic design and retrofit of structures.  相似文献   

9.
Fragility curves constitute the cornerstone in seismic risk evaluations and performance-based earthquake engineering. They describe the probability of a structure to experience a certain damage level for a given earthquake intensity measure, providing a relationship between seismic hazard and vulnerability. In this paper a numerical approach is applied to derive fragility curves for tunnel shafts built in clays, a component that is found in several critical infrastructure such as urban metro networks, airport facilities or water and waste water projects. The seismic response of a representative tunnel shaft is assessed using tridimensional finite difference non-linear analyses carried out with the program FLAC3D, under increasing levels of seismic intensity. A hysteretic model is used to simulate the soil non-linear behavior during the seismic event. The effect of soil conditions and ground motion characteristics on the soil-structure system response is accounted for in the analyses. The damage is defined based on the exceedance of the concrete wall shaft capacity due to the developed seismic forces. The fragility curves are estimated in terms of peak ground acceleration at a rock or stiff soil outcrop, based on the evolution of damage with increasing earthquake intensity. The proposed fragility models allows the characterization of the seismic risk of a representative tunnel shaft typology and soil conditions considering the associated uncertainties, and partially fill the gap of data required in performing a risk analysis assessment of tunnels shafts.  相似文献   

10.
A hybrid method for the vulnerability assessment of R/C and URM buildings   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6  
The methodology followed by the Aristotle University (AUTh) team for the vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete (R/C) and unreinforced masonry (URM) structures is presented. The paper focuses on the derivation of vulnerability (fragility) curves in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), as well as spectral displacement (s d), and also includes the estimation of capacity curves, for several R/C and URM building types. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the hybrid approach developed at AUTh, which combines statistical data with appropriately processed (utilising repair cost models) results from nonlinear dynamic or static analyses, that permit extrapolation of statistical data to PGA’s and/or spectral displacements for which no data are available. The statistical data used herein are from earthquake-damaged greek buildings. An extensive numerical study is carried out, wherein a large number of building types (representing most of the common typologies in S. Europe) are modelled and analysed. Vulnerability curves for several damage states are then derived using the aforementioned hybrid approach. These curves are subsequently used in combination with the mean spectrum of the Microzonation study of Thessaloniki as the basis for the derivation of new vulnerability curves involving spectral quantities. Pushover curves are derived for all building types, then reduced to standard capacity curves, and can easily be used together with the S d fragility curves as an alternative for developing seismic risk scenarios.  相似文献   

11.
Second‐generation performance‐based earthquake engineering (PBEE‐2) requires a library of component fragility functions to estimate probabilistic damage to a wide variety of building components. The present work draws on a large body of (mostly) post‐earthquake reconnaissance and (some) post‐earthquake survey observations of traction elevators to create fragility functions useful in PBEE‐2. Two surveys provide detailed observations of 115 representative elevators at 12 hospitals shaken in the 1989 Loma Prieta and 1994 Northridge earthquakes and selected without regard to or foreknowledge of damage. Of these, 55 failed and 60 did not. Approximately half were installed after an important code change of 1972, so one can distinguish the performance of pre‐1973 and post‐1973 elevator construction. They experienced a range of strong motion: 22 with peak ground acceleration (PGA) < 0.25 g, 93 with 0.25 g < PGA < 0.85 g. The hospitals had elevator failure rates as low as 0% and as high as 100%. A third survey describes damage qualitatively for six sites with PGA ≤ 0.25 and per‐site failure rates of 0% to perhaps 30%. Fragility functions are offered where the damage state is the loss of functionality of the elevator. The elevators in these surveys exhibit a median capacity of PGA ≈ 0.35 g with a logarithmic standard deviation of 0.40. Capacity is modestly sensitive to whether the elevator was installed before or after 1973. Using building‐specific intensity measures such as Sa(T1) does not improve the fragility functions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.

In general, historical earthquake events have shown that a strong mainshock might trigger several aftershocks, which can cause additional damage and seismic risk to the structures. This work tries to investigate the aftershock duration on seismic fragility of the shield building in consideration of initial damage. For this purpose, a three-dimensional finite element model of shield building is established using a concrete damage plastic model. A series of mainshock-aftershock sequences with different durations are selected and scaled to match the target spectrum. A damage ratio of tensile damage is developed to evaluate the additional damage caused by mainshock and aftershocks. Aftershocks with three durations, namely, 20 s, 40 s, and 60 s, are used to study the effect of initial damage levels and aftershock durations on the accumulative damage and seismic fragility of the shield building. The results indicate that those aftershocks with longer durations may wreak more worse cumulative damage to the post-mainshock damaged structure and significantly affect the probability of exceedance. It is also indicated that the initial damage levels have a significant impact on the fragility curves of the shield building. This work can directly incorporate the influence of mainshock-damaged states into the fragility assessment for Nuclear Power Plant.

  相似文献   

13.
Vulnerability assessment for historic buildings is usually carried out using capacity based approaches and prediction of losses is obtained by using normal or lognormal distributions for expected levels of macro seismic intensity or peak ground accelerations. Several authors have outlined the limitations of such approach. The paper presents a method to correlate analysis of seismic vulnerability using a failure mechanisms approach to observed in situ damage. The various aspects of the procedure are highlighted with application to a real case. It is shown how once the typologies within a sample have been identified, fragility curves for each of them can be derived and predictive cumulative damage curve obtained for samples for which direct survey of damage data is lacking. Finally the paper shows how the failure mechanism approach can be used to derive damage scenarios both in terms of spectral acceleration and spectral displacement  相似文献   

14.
The lack of knowledge concerning modelling existing buildings leads to significant variability in fragility curves for single or grouped existing buildings. This study aims to investigate the uncertainties of fragility curves, with special consideration of the single-building sigma. Experimental data and simplified models are applied to the BRD tower in Bucharest, Romania, a RC building with permanent instrumentation. A three-step methodology is applied： （1） adjustment of a linear MDOF model for experimental modal analysis using a Timoshenko beam model and based on Anderson＇s criteria, （2） computation of the structure＇s response to a large set of accelerograms simulated by SIMQKE software, considering twelve ground motion parameters as intensity measurements （IM）, and （3） construction of the fragility curves by comparing numerical interstory drift with the threshold criteria provided by the Hazus methodology for the slight damage state. By introducing experimental data into the model, uncertainty is reduced to 0.02 considering Sd ） as seismic intensity IM and uncertainty related to the model is assessed at 0.03. These values must be compared with the total uncertainty value of around 0.7 provided by the Hazus methodology.  相似文献   

15.
基于单一指标的传统地震易损性分析忽略了非结构构件损伤对建筑抗震性能的影响。首先基于多维性能极限状态理论建立了三维性能极限状态方程,并对几种特殊情况下的三维阈值曲面进行了讨论。进而以最大层间位移角作为整体结构与位移敏感型非结构构件的性能指标,以峰值楼面加速度作为加速度敏感型非结构构件的性能指标,对建筑的结构损伤和非结构损伤进行描述。考虑各性能指标之间的相关性和各性能指标所对应的极限状态阈值的不确定性,建立了建筑在地震作用下的三维性能极限状态的超越概率函数。最后,采用Open Sees有限元软件对一7层钢筋混凝土框架填充墙建筑进行增量动力分析,得到其各性能水平下的地震易损性曲线。分析结果表明,当忽略非结构构件损伤时,各性能极限状态的超越概率均降低,从而高估了建筑剩余功能水平,进而导致低估建筑的损失。在考虑各性能指标的极限状态阈值的不确定性时,对任一性能极限状态,不同变异系数取值下的易损性曲线会出现交点,在交点之前超越概率随着变异系数的增大而增大,交点之后则随着变异系数的增大而减小。在考虑性能指标间的相关性时,对任一性能极限状态,超越概率随着相关系数的减小而增大。另外,性能指标阈值的不确定性与性能指标间的相关性对地震易损性的影响随着性能水平的提高而逐渐降低,且对低性能水平下建筑地震易损性有明显影响。  相似文献   

16.
This paper compares the seismic demands obtained from an intensity‐based assessment, as conventionally considered in seismic design guidelines, with the seismic demand hazard. Intensity‐based assessments utilize the distribution of seismic demand from ground motions that have a specific value of some conditioning intensity measure, and the mean of this distribution is conventionally used in design verification. The seismic demand hazard provides the rate of exceedance of various seismic demand values and is obtained by integrating the distribution of seismic demand at multiple intensity levels with the seismic hazard curve. The seismic demand hazard is a more robust metric for quantifying seismic performance, because seismic demands from an intensity‐based assessment: (i) are not unique, with different values obtained using different conditioning intensity measures; and (ii) do not consider the possibility that demand values could be exceeded from different intensity ground motions. Empirical results, for a bridge‐foundation‐soil system, illustrate that the mean seismic demand from an intensity‐based assessment almost always underestimates the demand hazard value for the exceedance rate considered, on average by 17% and with a large variability. Furthermore, modification factors based on approximate theory are found to be unreliable. Adopting the maximum of the mean values from multiple intensity‐based assessments, with different conditional intensity measures, provides a less biased prediction of the seismic demand hazard value, but with still a large variability, and a proportional increase the required number of analyses. For an equivalent number of analyses, direct computation of the seismic demand hazard is a more logical choice and provides additional performance insight. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
This paper presents, within the performance‐based earthquake engineering framework, a comprehensive probabilistic seismic loss estimation method that accounts for main sources of uncertainty related to hazard, vulnerability, and loss. The loss assessment rigorously integrates multiple engineering demand parameters (maximum and residual inter‐story drift ratio and peak floor acceleration) with consideration of mainshock–aftershock sequences. A 4‐story non‐ductile reinforced concrete building located in Victoria, British Colombia, Canada, is considered as a case study. For 100 mainshock and mainshock–aftershock earthquake records, incremental dynamic analysis is performed, and the three engineering demand parameters are fitted with a probability distribution and corresponding dependence computed. Finally, with consideration of different demolition limit states, loss assessment is performed. From the results, it can be shown that when seismic vulnerability models are integrated with seismic hazard, the aftershock effects are relatively minor in terms of overall seismic loss (1–4% increase). Moreover, demolition limit state parameters, uncertainties of collapse fragility, and non‐collapse seismic demand prediction models have showed significant contribution to the loss assessment. The seismic loss curves for the reference case and for cases with the varied parameters can differ by as large as about 150%. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
This study focuses on the seismic safety evaluation of masonry buildings in Turkey for in‐plane failure modes using fragility curves. Masonry buildings are classified and a set of fragility curves are generated for each class. The major structural parameters in the classification of masonry buildings are considered as the number of stories, load‐bearing wall material, regularity in plan and the arrangement of walls (required length, openings in walls, etc.), in accordance with the observations from previous earthquakes and field databases. The fragility curves are generated by using time history (for demand) and pushover (for capacity) analyses. From the generated sets of fragility curves, it is observed that the damage state probabilities are significantly influenced from the number of stories and wall material strength. In the second stage of the study, the generated fragility curves are employed to estimate the damage of masonry buildings in Dinar after the 1995 earthquake. The estimated damage by fragility information is compared with the inspected visual damage as assessed from the Damage Evaluation Form. For the quantification of fragility‐based damage, a single‐valued index, named as ‘vulnerability score’ (VS), is proposed. There seems to be a fair agreement between the two damage measures. In addition to this, decisions regarding the repair or demolition of masonry buildings in Dinar due to visual damage inspection are on comparable grounds with the relative measure obtained from VS of the same buildings. Hence, the fragility‐based procedure can provide an alternative for the seismic safety evaluation of masonry buildings in Turkey. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
A fundamental tool in seismic risk assessment of transportation systems is the fragility curve, which describes the probability that a structure will reach or exceed a certain damage state for a given ground motion intensity. Fragility curves are usually represented by two‐parameter (median and log‐standard deviation) cumulative lognormal distributions. In this paper, a numerical approach, in the spirit of the IDA, is applied for the development of fragility curves for highways and railways on embankments and in cuts due to seismic shaking. The response of the geo‐construction to increasing levels of seismic intensity is evaluated using a 2D nonlinear finite element model, with an elasto‐plastic criterion to simulate the soil behavior. A calibration procedure is followed in order to account for the dependency of both the stiffness and the damping to the soil strain level. The effect of soil conditions and ground motion characteristics on the response of the embankment and cut is taken into account considering different typical soil profiles and seismic input motions. This study will provide input for the assessment of the vulnerability of the road/railway network regarding the performance of the embankments and cuts; therefore, the level of damage is described in terms of the permanent ground displacement in these structures. The fragility curves are estimated based on the evolution of damage with increasing earthquake intensity, which is described by PGA. The proposed approach allows the evaluation of new fragility curves considering the distinctive features of the element's geometry, the input motion, and the soil properties as well as the associated uncertainties. A relationship between the computed permanent ground displacement on the surface of the embankment and the PGA in the free field is also suggested based on the results of the numerical analyses. Finally, the proposed fragility curves are compared with existing empirical data and the limitations of their applicability are outlined. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Analysis of civil structures at the scale of life‐cycle requires stochastic modeling of degradation. Phenomena causing structures to degrade are typically categorized as aging and point‐in‐time overloads. Earthquake effects are the members of the latter category this study deals with in the framework of performance‐based earthquake engineering (PBEE). The focus is structural seismic reliability, which requires modeling of the stochastic process describing damage progression, because of subsequent events, over time. The presented study explicitly addresses this issue via a Markov‐chain‐based approach, which is able to account for the change in seismic response of damaged structures (i.e. state‐dependent seismic fragility) as well as uncertainty in occurrence and intensity of earthquakes (i.e. seismic hazard). The state‐dependent vulnerability issue arises when the seismic hysteretic response is evolutionary and/or when the damage measure employed is such that the degradation increment probabilistically depends on the conditions of the structure at the time of the shock. The framework set up takes advantage also of the hypotheses of classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, allowing to separate the modeling of the process of occurrence of seismic shocks and the effect they produce on the structure. It is also discussed how the reliability assessment, which is in closed‐form, may be virtually extended to describe a generic age‐ and state‐dependent degradation process (e.g. including aging and/or when aftershock risk is of interest). Illustrative applications show the options to calibrate the model and its potential in the context of PBEE. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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