共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 218 毫秒
1.
根据中国石油资源现状及其开发利用程度, 运用回归分析预测模型、HCZ模型、Hubbert模型和翁氏模型进行定量分析, 并结合定性分析得出, 到2010年和2020年时, 中国石油可采储量分别为 39.87～45.17亿t和54.37～64.57亿t, 扣除开采消耗的可供储量, 原油生产能力可保持在1.56 ～ 1.85亿t。 相似文献
2.
3.
油气是重要的战略资源。其中天然气作为清洁能源,它曾经是,现在是,在可预期的未来——全球碳减排、中国碳达峰情景下,仍然是最重要的能源资源。能源进口渠道的多元化一直是中国缓解能源紧张的有效措施之一。北极地区油气资源丰富且以天然气为主,已发现的油气资源中绝大多数在俄罗斯,尤其是天然气。但是俄罗斯天然气生产的油气田80%以上已经进入北极圈。2012年,中俄合作开发北极亚马尔液化天然气项目正式启动,标志着中国参与北极油气资源开发利用取得重要进展,也事实上开启了中国主导的"丝绸之路经济带建设"和俄罗斯主导的"欧亚经济联盟建设"对接合作的进程。北极地区已发现的油气资源共计3289.4亿桶油当量,其中石油605.4亿桶（84.1亿吨）油当量,仅为全球已发现石油资源的2.5%;天然气41.4万亿立方米（约合2683亿桶,372.6亿吨油当量）,占全球已发现天然气资源的15.5%。北极地区已发现的油气总资源中绝大多数在俄罗斯,俄罗斯已发现的北极油气资源合计2905亿桶油当量（403.5亿吨）,占88.3%;其中天然气约39.47万亿立方米,约合2557.9亿桶（355.3亿吨）油当量,占北极地区已发现天然气总资源的95%以上。北极待发现的油气资源量也非常可观,约占世界待发现常规石油资源的15%;天然气占世界待发现常规天然气资源的30%,其分布也主要在俄罗斯。随着全球气候变暖和能源战略博弈,俄罗斯为确保其天然气出口及财政来源,必然要加大北极油气、特别是天然气的开采和开发,并通过北极航道运到中国和其他消费国。本文在概括分析北极油气资源分布特点、俄罗斯油气资源与北极战略及北方海航道通行能力的基础上,回顾了北极亚马尔液化天然气项目诞生、发展演变及其国际博弈的背景;概括介绍了中国成功介入北极油气资源项目这一标志性事件过程,并进一步提出了中国对北极油气资源利用战略举措的建议。 相似文献
4.
结合松辽盆地北部勘探历程及石油三级储量历史,应用多旋回哈伯特模型预测石油探明、控制、预测三级储量增长趋势。预测"十三·五"期间累计新增探明储量2.5×108t,石油控制储量5.1×108t,石油预测储量6.0×108t。控制、预测储量高峰期将出现在2018年前后,下一个探明储量高峰期将出现在控制、预测储量高峰期之后。预测结果表明,多旋回哈伯特模型对松辽盆地北部具有"多峰"特征的储量增长趋势预测是一种适用且有效的技术方法。 相似文献
5.
中国中西部前陆盆地的地质特征及油气聚集 总被引：92，自引：1，他引：92
油页岩是一种重要的替代能源资源,中国油页岩主要分布于中国15个省份(区),总查明资源储量329.89亿t,居世界第四位。其中,吉林省、广东省、辽宁省分别为174.27亿t、55.15亿t和45.05亿t,并分别占全国油页岩探明资源储量的52.83%、16.72%和13.65%。中国油页岩具有沉积时代以新生代为主,沉积环境以陆相为主的特征。中国高含油率的油页岩主要分布在新生代小型聚煤断陷盆地,而低含油率油页岩主要分布在晚白垩纪大型含油气坳陷盆地,且资源量巨大。中国小型断陷盆地油页岩,如桦甸油页岩的形成主要受构造、气候作用影响;而大型坳陷盆地,如松辽盆地油页岩的形成与全球缺氧事件有关,而缺氧事件常与海平面变化关系密切。新的评价体系把油页岩边界品位-含油率(ω)定为3.5%,并按不同品级、不同埋藏深度进行油页岩资源系统评价。坚持综合开发和利用,走炼油-化工-发电-多金属提取-建材一条龙联合生产是最佳开发利用途径。中国油页岩工业在中长期内将可实现油页岩工业化,具有广阔前景。 相似文献
6.
全球非常规页岩层系油气资源丰富,富有机质页岩主要沉积在劳亚构造域和特提斯构造域的上侏罗统、渐新统—中新统、白垩系和上泥盆统4套页岩层系内。交汇分析北美典型页岩油区块产量与Ro数据关系,提出Ro为0.7%作为低熟页岩油和中高熟页岩油的界限,系统评价了全球116个盆地157套页岩层系中高熟页岩油、低熟页岩油技术可采资源量约2 512亿t,主要分布在北美洲、南美洲、北非和俄罗斯,以前陆盆地中新界、克拉通盆地古生界、裂谷盆地和被动大陆边缘盆地的中生界为主。海相页岩油受显生宙以来的海侵影响,富集在稳定克拉通和前陆等类型盆地中,具大面积稳定分布、成熟度适中等特征;陆相页岩油受暖室期气候影响,主要在坳陷、断陷等类型盆地中发育,以微纳米级无机孔隙和微页理裂缝为主要储渗空间通道,具有沉积相横向变化大、“甜点区段”局部富集等特征。中国石油工业正经历从“陆相页岩生油”向“陆相页岩产油”转变,初步形成源岩油气“进源找油”地质理论、陆相页岩油高效勘探及低成本开发技术体系,推动中国陆相页岩油取得重要突破。着力加强应用基础理论研究与关键技术攻关,构建地质-工程一体化模式,... 相似文献
7.
8.
A number of growth models have been developed and used in an attempt to project the historical pattern of oil activities to some estimate of their upper limit. Techniques are outlined for the estimation of parameters of the logistic and Gompertz curves. Factor analysis indicated a close relationship between production and demand, whereas annual discoveries and discoveries classified by year of discovery tended to comprise unique factors which were indifferent to changes in time. The growth models projected relatively high values for ultimate demand and production in comparison to the figures for ultimate reserves. Inasmuch as these trends seemed to be occurring independently, some reconciliation of the results was necessary. Using the highest projections of estimates for reserves suggests that over 420 billion barrels of oil in place will eventually be discovered in the United States, with perhaps 200 billion barrels of this eventually to be proved in the form of reserves. Projections for production were higher, corresponding to a trend indicating high levels in demand for crude oil. The only credible long-term estimate of demand was given by a bounded exponential growth model, in which ultimate cumulative demand for crude oil would reach about 416 billion barrels. These figures imply that over 150 billion barrels of oil would be imported into the United States from 1970 to 2070. Provided the time pattern for one of the variables has been determined, then estimates of the other variables probably would be facilitated because of the high interrelationship between variables. Models are suggested in which accurate pivotal forecasting in the short term might be possible—assuming the particular future trend in some of the independent variables has been predetermined.Research Council of Alberta Contribution No. 596. 相似文献
9.
北极地区油气资源潜力大,且油气勘探开发尚处于初期,是未来国内外油气工业发展的重要战略领域。文中综合运用全球领先信息服务公司埃信华迈（IHS）和美国地质调查局（USGS）的最新资料及已有研究成果,对北极地区的盆地类型和油气资源分布规律展开研究。结果表明:北极地区至少发育35个沉积盆地,具体划分为裂谷盆地（5个）、被动大陆边缘盆地（16个）、克拉通盆地（5个）、前陆盆地（5个）和大洋盆地（4个）。裂谷盆地是北极地区油气最富集的盆地类型,发现油气探明和控制可采储量（简称2P储量）441.12×108 t油当量,占北极地区油气总储量的74.6%,其次为前陆盆地、被动大陆边缘盆地和克拉通盆地。北极地区大部分油气储于白垩系、侏罗系和二叠系的碎屑岩储集层,仅有小部分油气储于石炭系和泥盆系碳酸盐岩储集层,且不同国家、不同含油气盆地的主力储集层存在明显差异。北极地区的油气主要源自侏罗系和白垩系的烃源岩,三叠系和泥盆系烃源岩次之。此外,复合圈闭是北极地区油气藏的主要圈闭类型,其次是构造圈闭。北极地区盆地类型和油气宏观分布规律的研究将为中国石油公司在北极地区的长远发展奠定基础。 相似文献
10.
《International Geology Review》2012,54(9):855-877
Russia still is one of the world's major petroleum-producing countries, but output declined precipitously from the peak in 1987 of 569.5 million tons to 260.2 million tons for the first nine months of 1993 (projected at 340 million tons for the year). The crisis in the oil sector is due largely to the underlying political, economic, and organizational problems rather than to deficiencies in the oil reserve base or technology. Major oil-producing regions-West Siberia and Volga-Urals provinces—are identified, and within these regions, geology, reserve size, and major production associations are described. Other noteworthy areas covered in greater detail are the oil fields of Komi and Sakhalin. Concluding sections are devoted to a critical assessment of the Russian government's program to arrest the decline in oil output and to projecting output over the near future based largely on production trends that are appparent in November 1993. Estimates indicate that oil output in Russia will continue to decline throughout 1993 and 1994, and conceivably in 1995 as well. 相似文献
11.
涠西南凹陷主力烃源岩流沙港二段沉积时期,盆地处于欠补偿环境,其主要沉积物是中深湖相的暗色泥岩,地震上以亚平行、中—弱振幅、不连续的反射特征为主;流沙港组二段泥岩有机碳质量分数普遍大于1.5%,干酪根类型主要为Ⅰ和Ⅱ型,为优质生油岩。通过盆地模拟,得出涠西南凹陷流沙港组源岩生油量为114×108t,生气量为22.31×1011m3,累计生烃强度基本上大于5×106t/km2;平面上A洼生烃占41%,B洼生烃占54%,纵向上流沙港组二段生烃约占流沙港组生烃量的80%,为主要烃源贡献者;涠西南凹陷存在2期生油高峰期：涠洲组沉积时期及下洋—现今沉积时期。在综合考虑油气运聚单元划分结果、骨架砂体及断层展布与发育特征的基础上,指出了涠西南凹陷有利的油气运聚区。 相似文献
12.
The world’s present demand for oil and gas is still in a rapid growth period, and traditional oil and gas resources account for more than 60% of the global oil and gas supply. The Americas is the world’s second largest production and consumption center of liquid fuel, and is also the world’s largest natural gas producer. In 2016, the Americas had 85.3 billion tons of proven oil reserves and 18.7 trillion m3 of proven natural gas reserves, which account for 35.4% and 10.0% of world’s total reserves, respectively. It produced 1267.1 Mt of oil and 1125.4 billion m3 of natural gas, which account for 28.9% and 31.7% of the world’s total production, respectively. The crude oil and natural gas reserves are mainly distributed in the U.S., Canada and Venezuela. The U.S. is the earliest and most successful country in shale gas exploration and development, and its shale gas is concentrated in the southern, central and eastern U.S., including the Marcellcus shale, Barnett shale, EagleFord shale, Bakken shale, Fayettevis shale, Haynsvill shale, Woodford shale and Monterey/Santos shale. The potential oil and gas resources in the Americas are mainly concentrated in the anticline and stratigraphic traps in the Middle-Upper Jurassic slope deposition of the North Slope Basin, the Paleozoic Madsion group dolomite and limestone in the Williston Basin, dominant stratigraphic traps and few structural traps in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, the Eocene structural-stratigraphic hydrocarbon combination, structural-unconformity traps and structural hydrocarbon combination, and the Upper Miocene stratigraphic-structural hydrocarbon combination in the Maracaibo Basin of Venezuela, the stratigraphic-structural traps and fault horst, tilting faulted blocks and anticlines related to subsalt structure and basement activity in the Campos Basin, the subsalt central low-uplift belt and supra-salt central low-uplift belt in the Santos Basin of Brazil, and the structural-stratigraphic traps in the Neuquen Basin of Argentina. In addition, the breakthrough of seismic subsalt imaging technology makes the subsalt deepwater sea area of eastern Barzil an important oil and gas potential area. 相似文献
13.
For many non-renewable resources, reliable production data are only available from a certain point in time but not from the
beginning of production periods. In order to constrain the unknown historic production of such resources for those ancient
times for which no reliable annual production data are available we present a novel mathematical technique, based on Verhulst’s
logistic function. The method is validated by the United States’ crude oil production for which the complete production cycle,
starting in 1859, is well documented. Assuming that the oil production in the USA between 1859 and 1929 is unknown, our method
yields values for this period of 16.0 gigabarrels (Gb) based on a second-order polynomial fit and 13.5 Gb based on a third-order
polynomial fit of post-1929 production data, respectively. Especially the latter amount compares well with the actual value
of 12.1 Gb, thus illustrating the strength of the method. For global gold (Au) production, our method yields an ancient production
up to the year 1850, when official and reliable production statistics began, of approximately 10,000 metric tons (t) based
on a second-order polynomial fit. For mercury (Hg) a production of 64,000 t was determined for the time up to the year 1900,
when annual production figures started to become available, again using a second-order polynomial fit. While the results obtained
by the application of second-order polynomial functions could be confirmed by higher-order polynomial functions in the cases
of both USA oil as well as global Au production, this was not possible in the case of global Hg production because of a highly
irregular production curve. 相似文献
14.
To accurately predict future CO2 levels in the atmosphere, which is crucial in predicting global climate change, the sources and sinks of the atmospheric
CO2 and their change over time must be determined. In this paper, some typical cases are examined using published and unpublished
data. Firstly, the sensitivity of carbonate rock weathering (including the effects by both dissolution and reprecipitation
of carbonate) to the change of soil CO2 and runoff will be discussed, and then the net amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere in the carbonate rock areas of mainland China and the world will be determined by the hydrochem-discharge
and carbonate-rock-tablet methods, to obtain an estimate of the contribution of carbonate rock weathering to the atmospheric
CO2 sink. These contributions are about 0.018 billion metric tons of carbon/a and 0.11 billion metric tons of carbon/a for China
and the world, respectively. Further, by the DBL (Diffusion Boundary Layer)-model calculation, the potential CO2 sink by carbonate rock dissolution is estimated to be 0.41 billion metric tons of carbon/a for the world. Therefore, the
potential CO2 source by carbonate reprecipitation is 0.3 billion metric tons of carbon/a.
Received: 12 May 1999 · Accepted: 16 August 1999 相似文献
15.
Oil plays an important role in ensuring national energy security. It is of great significance for China’s energy policy-making to predict the future oil demand scientifically. Combined with the grey correlation analysis and combination model of ARIMA-BP neural network, data on six driving variables of China’s GDP, international oil price, energy consumption per unit GDP, industrial structure, urbanization rate and oil production in 1999-2018 were selected to predict China’s oil demand under different scenarios in 2020-2030. The results show that the selected driving variables are highly correlated with China’s oil demand, and the combined model is more accurate than the single model. From 2020 to 2030, China’s oil demand and import will continue to increase, but the growth rate will gradually slow down. Under the three scenarios, the predicted average oil demand in 2020, 2025 and 2030 will be 675.7703 million tons, 732.2725 million tons and 760.8155 million tons, respectively; the predicted average external dependence in 2020-2030 will be 76.19%, far exceeding the international warning line of 50%. The contradiction between China’s oil supply and demand will be more acute, and accordingly, some policy suggestions were put forward. 相似文献
16.
Rice research: Food for 4 billion people 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
K. Lampe 《GeoJournal》1995,35(3):253-261
Rice is the staple food for about 2.4 billion people and provides more than 20% of their daily calorie intake. This number will increase to 4.6 billion people by 2050. Just to meet the projected demand for rice in the 21st Century, the world's annual rough rice production must increase from 520 million tons today to at least 880 million tons by 2025, an increase of almost 70%. That requirement may rise to one billion tons by the year 2050.To produce such an increase, on decreasing arable land, with reduced water resources, with less rural labor input, and with fewer agrochemical inputs, will require major contributions from research to increase yields and reduce inputs, costs and losses. And, more important, it will require coordinated national and international scientific efforts and, above all, strong political will, determined governments and major investments in food research in the rice-consuming countries of the world. 相似文献
17.
碳达峰、碳中和目标要求下,陕西作为煤炭资源大省,煤炭资源的低碳开发与利用势在必行。基于陕西五大煤田的5 000余组煤质数据,研究陕西省煤炭资源中煤焦油产率的变化规律为:陕北三叠纪煤田>陕北侏罗纪煤田>陕北石炭–二叠纪煤田≈黄陇侏罗纪煤田>渭北石炭–二叠纪煤田,划分出3种富油煤类型:富油煤型、富油煤–高油煤型、富油煤–含油煤型。按照煤炭资源量计算办法,全省已经查明的煤炭资源中富油煤+高油煤资源量为1 550.33亿t,内蕴焦油资源量144.5亿t;预测出陕西省2 000 m以浅煤炭资源总量中富油煤+高油煤资源量为3 845亿t,内蕴焦油资源325亿t;并对富油煤资源控制程度进行划分。分析富油煤的成因机理,指出变质程度、沉积相及物质组成和埋藏条件等为富油煤形成的主要影响因素。针对目前煤炭开发中存在的资源浪费问题,提出一种富油煤原位地下热解多煤层协同开采的资源开发新思路。 相似文献
18.
为保证云南钢铁工业可持续发展,解决矿石资源的不足,从分析截止2002年底保有资源量数据入手,研究尚未上表的铁矿资源现状,发现全省上表98处产地保有的35.52亿t储量中,仅有7.91亿t为当前可应用储量。应从补勘升级上表D级储量(3亿t)、择优勘查未上表的矿区(2亿t)、试验-研究3类矿石的选矿回收(菱铁矿石1亿t,鲕状高磷赤铁矿石1亿t,高磷非鲕状赤铁矿石0.5亿t),合计可新增可应用矿石7.5亿t,加上已有的7.91亿t,可应用矿石最终达15.41亿t。再加上第二轮国土资源大调查铁矿的新发现,立足省内,扩大进口,必将缓解云南铁矿资源紧缺的现状。 相似文献
19.
哈萨克斯坦共和国油气地质资源分析 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
哈萨克斯坦共和国地处中亚并与我国接壤,石油天然气资源潜力巨大,陆上油、气可采储量分别为21亿吨和16000亿立方米,而海上油气资源更加丰富,目前已发现油气田200余个,包括油田、油气田、凝析气田和气田等多种油气组合,集中分布在哈萨克斯坦国西部各含油气省.该国含油气面积约为170万平方公里,滨里海、中里海-曼格什拉克和乌斯丘尔特沉积盆地具有十分丰富的油气资源,楚河-萨雷苏伊盆地和锡尔河盆地也有油气发现. 相似文献
20.
全球深水油气勘探简论 总被引：11，自引：6，他引：5
全球深水油气资源非常丰富,估计全球深水区最终潜在石油储量有可能超过1000×108bbl。随着深水油气勘探开发的不断深入,深水油气探明储量和产量不断增加,所占比重越来越大。预测至2015年世界海洋石油的25%将来自深水区。巴西近海、美国墨西哥湾和西非沿海是当前世界三大深水勘探热点地区,这里集中了世界84%的深水钻探活动,其储量占据了全球深水储量的88%。近几年全球不断取得深水油气重大发现,对全球新增探明储量和提高产量起到了主要作用。深水油气勘探与浅海及陆上油气勘探相比,技术要求高、资金风险高、作业难度高,施工工艺也有很大区别。高科技在深水油气勘探开发中的广泛应用不仅提高了深水油气勘探开发的成功率,促进了深水勘探的发展,反过来又带动了一大批学科专业的快速发展。 相似文献