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为充分理解全球洪涝灾害的时空演变规律,基于长时间序列全球历史洪灾数据,运用数理统计和GIS空间分析方法,在不同空间尺度和年代际、年际的时间尺度上,全面分析了1980—2020年重大洪涝灾害的时空特征。结果表明：(1)全球洪灾次数在21世纪前10 a达到峰值,死亡和影响人口在1990s达到峰值,累计经济损失在2010s达到峰值,次均经济损失在1990s和2010s最高;(2)洪灾发生次数及造成的经济损失在1980—2020年期间呈显著上升趋势,每次洪灾造成的人口损失呈现下降趋势;(3)亚洲洪涝灾害严重,洪灾的发生次数、死亡人数、影响人口及经济损失的累计值分别占全球总数的41%、68%、95%和63%,然而包括中国在内的亚洲诸多国家的洪灾人口损失呈下降趋势;(4)全球重大洪灾呈东西向分布,灾害重心有南移趋势,洪灾由集中趋于分散,影响区域逐渐变广。 相似文献
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RS、GIS一体化研究——以湖北省土壤侵蚀遥感调查为例 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
遥感信息的提取是信息采集的重要部分 ,地理信息系统 (GIS)是遥感信息与其它信息集成的基础平台。通过遥感(RS)、GIS一体化在土壤侵蚀调查中的研究表明 ,RS、GIS一体化技术具有投资省、周期短、精度高等优点 ,是今后国土资源调查研究所采用方法的发展趋势 相似文献
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基于GIS的洪灾遥感监测与损失风险评价系统 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
洪灾遥感监测与损失风险评价系统,是以RS和GIS为技术支撑平台,由洪水灾害信息接收与采集,洪水灾害模拟和洪水灾害损失组成的较完整的系统,将数据库与模型库集成,当系统接受和采集了实时获取的洪水灾害的遥感监测与常规观测的信息后,通过图像处理与信息融合,能迅速确定洪水灾情在空间和时间上的分布,实时地提供洪水淹没范围并估算经济损失,为专家调度决策、指挥救灾抗灾工作提供科学依据。 相似文献
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上海市防汛辅助决策系统研究 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
针对威胁上海的三大水灾，研制暴雨积水模型、风暴潮模型、河网水力模型、灾害评估模型，在GIS基础上建立了上海市防汛辅助决策系统，实现了对处于平原感潮河网的上海市洪涝灾害的实时监测、分析预报、风险评估和网上发布。为分析洪涝形势、制定防汛成灾方案、进行灾情评估以及工程管理，提供准确、及时、全面的信息支持。阐述了系统的总体设计、功能模块、关键技术和特色，分析了GIS、水动力学模型在系统中的作用。 相似文献
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一种基于DEM的洪水有源淹没算法的设计与实现 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
洪水淹没范围的确定是洪灾损失评估和防洪决策的核心环节,现已成为GIS在水利应用领域的研究前沿,洪水淹没模拟分为有源淹没和无源淹没两种情形,针对有源淹没的递归算法占用计算机资源较多,容易造成系统堆栈溢出,导致程序崩溃等缺陷,丈中提出了一种计算洪水有源淹没范围算法：堆栈节点遍历算法：其以．NET为编程基础平台,在GIS技术的基础上应用数字高程模型（DEM）的格网模型进行洪水淹没分析一通过与原有的递归算法对比,该算法在一定程度上提高了计算效率和稳定性,最后成功应用在“南昌洪水淹没分析系统”中,对促进防洪减灾的信息化建设有一定意义。 相似文献
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在全球气候变化和城市化进程不断加快的背景下,城市洪涝灾害频发,造成严重的经济损失和人员伤亡问题。对近年来中国典型城市洪涝灾害进行系统整理介绍,说明洪涝灾害带来的人员伤亡和经济损失巨大。风险评估作为一种非工程性防洪措施,是城市洪涝风险管理的首要工作,精确、高效的把握洪灾过程等特征可以为防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。对城市洪涝风险评估与分区的概念和内容进行系统梳理,常用的风险评估方法有数理统计法、不确定性分析法、遥感影像评估法、指标体系评估法、情景模拟评估法；风险分区常用方法有阈值法、经验公式法和物理机制法。论述了城市洪涝风险评估与分区常用方法的应用范围、优缺点及其发展前景。 相似文献
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基于3S技术的宝天高速公路虚拟地理环境系统设计与实现 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
要建设兼顾交通、环保、生态等多方面要求的高标准山区高速公路,必须重视和加强地质环境工作,而遥感技术(RS)、地理信息系统(GIS)、全球定位系统(GPS)和虚拟地理环境技术可以在其中发挥巨大的辅助作用.依托宝(鸡)天(水)高速公路(牛背至天水段)项目,对3S(RS,GIS和GPS)技术支持下的道路虚拟地理环境设计与实现方法展开研究.讨论了系统建设的设计思路、方案和技术实现工作流程,以及数据建设工作流程,针对实际应用的需求,探讨了对系统整体性能进行优化的方法.研究表明,通过采用新的技术支持与实现手段,虚拟地理环境技术可以在道路工程建设过程的信息管理与信息可视化方面发挥巨大的辅助作用. 相似文献
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This paper deals with the problem of the estimation of rainstorm floods disaster. Based on the relevant historical disaster data of Yearbook of Meteorological Disasters in China (2005–2010), the initial disaster data of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in mainland China (Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan excluded) are processed into evaluation indices values. And then, the incidence degrees of disaster data are calculated. The disaster situation of rainstorm floods disaster for each region in mainland China from 2004 to 2009 is estimated by applied the grey incidence decision model of the dynamic multiple attribute. Simultaneously, the comprehensive quantitative assessment of the rainstorm and flood disaster of each region in mainland China nearly 6 years is conducted. According to the assessment results of 2004–2009 torrential rain and flood disaster in Chinese mainland, the level division of disaster loss is investigated. And the disaster loss of mainland China’s 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions is divided into five levels in which the national flood disaster situation zoning maps are constructed. The results demonstrate that the evaluation method of rainstorm floods disaster is practical and effective. 相似文献
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Floods in Malaysia have been increasing in frequency and magnitude as reflected in the Kelantan Flood event in 2014 that resulted in a huge loss of lives and properties. Whereas remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) tools have been extensively applied in flood disaster management, there are few reports and studies on the impact of floods on the land use/land cover environment in a post-disaster assessment. In this study, an integrated modelling approach was developed that used Landsat 8 OLI TIRS (Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor) data, flood indexing and classification processes to estimate the impact of flood on the environment. The Normalized Difference Flood Index-3 (NDFI3) is an improvement on NDFI2 that takes into account the effects of cloud shadow in the images when extracting flood index areas. The flood model developed showed good agreement when compared with flooded areas shown in SAR (synthetic-aperture radar) image. The results of the flood extent as a proxy for damage estimation showed that the total flooded area was 502.34 km2 for the Kelantan Flood event in 2014, with plantation and built-up area accounting for 43 and 34.6% respectively. The least affected land uses/land covers were deforested area and forest, which accounted for 12.2 and 10.2% respectively. The RS and GIS technique developed in this post-disaster damage assessment is effective, relatively inexpensive and simple to implement by local authorities in support of post-flood disaster planning and decision-making. 相似文献
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Policy makers need accurate disaster loss data for decisions about disaster assistance, policy evaluation, and scientific research priorities. But loss estimation is difficult in a disaster situation, and initial loss estimates are seldom evaluated in comparison with actual costs. This paper uses the example of historical flood damage data in the U.S. to evaluate disaster loss data. It evaluates the accuracy of historical flood damage estimates from two federal agencies. The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) has compiled annual flood loss estimates for each state since 1955. Comparison of the NWS data with similar estimates from five state emergency management agencies reveals substantial disagreement between estimates from different sources. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) began in the 1990s to systematically collect damage estimates and cost data associated with its disaster assistance programs. Comparison of early damage estimates with actual expenditures in a California flood disaster reveals large errors in some estimates for individual counties, but no statistically significant tendency to underestimate or overestimate. Positive and negative errors tend to average out and the total damage estimate for the state approximates the final expenditures. Both comparisons indicate that damage estimates for small events or local jurisdictions often are extremely inaccurate. On the other hand, estimates aggregated over large areas or long time periods appear to be reasonably reliable; that is, this study finds that independent estimates for events with losses greater than $500 million disagree by less than 40. The paper suggests ways of interpreting and using such loss estimates to reduce the likelihood of misinterpretation.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
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In this paper, we introduce the gray correlation method of risk evaluation in meteorological disaster losses based on historical disaster data in China (mainland) and apply the improved gray relational analysis model (the triangular gray relational model) to the risk evaluation of rainstorm and flood disaster losses. In addition, we divide the risk grade standards of rainstorm and flood disaster losses according to 186 rainstorm and flood disaster data of four optimization indexes (disaster area, suffered population, collapsed houses, and direct economic losses), evaluate the extent of dynamic rainstorm and flood disaster losses in 31 provinces of China (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan exclusive) comprehensively, and draw China’s zoning map of rainstorm and flood disaster from 2004 to 2009. The method provides reasonable and effective references for national disaster preventions which can be used in other researches focused on risk evaluation of meteorological disaster losses. 相似文献
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A Probabilistic Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4
In order to be economically viable, flood disaster mitigation should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk.
This requires the estimation of the flood hazard (i.e. runoff and associated probability) and the consequences of flooding
(i.e. property damage, damage to persons, etc.). Within the “German Research Network Natural Disasters” project, the working
group on “Flood Risk Analysis” investigated the complete flood disaster chain from the triggering event down to its various
consequences. The working group developed complex, spatially distributed models representing the relevant meteorological,
hydrological, hydraulic, geo-technical, and socio-economic processes. In order to assess flood risk these complex deterministic
models were complemented by a simple probabilistic model. The latter model consists of modules each representing one process
of the flood disaster chain. Each module is a simple parameterisation of the corresponding more complex model. This ensures
that the two approaches (simple probabilistic and complex deterministic) are compatible at all steps of the flood disaster
chain. The simple stochastic approach allows a large number of simulation runs in a Monte Carlo framework thus providing the
basis for a probabilistic risk assessment. Using the proposed model, the flood risk including an estimation of the flood damage
was quantified for an example area at the river Rhine. Additionally, the important influence of upstream levee breaches on
the flood risk at the lower reaches was assessed. The proposed model concept is useful for the integrated assessment of flood
risks in flood prone areas, for cost-benefit assessment and risk-based design of flood protection measures and as a decision
support tool for flood management. 相似文献
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防洪效益评估对防洪工程投资决策与减灾对策制定具有重要意义。建立集成了与太湖流域防洪效益评估相关的系列模型和方法,包括含降雨产流与平原净雨计算的水文分析方法、由河网水动力学模型和平原区域洪水分析模型组成的大尺度水力学模型、综合流域社会经济和淹没因素的洪灾损失评估模型。模拟了太湖流域遇特大洪水的灾害损失,开展了不同防洪工程应对流域性特大洪水减灾效益的预测分析。结果表明:1999年型200年一遇降雨将会给太湖流域造成高达568.29亿元的直接经济损失,外排动力增强30%至100%的防洪效益介于26.69亿元到45.70亿元之间,新建圩区、太浦河拓宽的防洪效益依次减小,而圩区泵排能力增加30%的防洪效益仅为0.65亿元。基于研究成果提出了增设外排泵站、加强圩区科学调度、通过保险分担风险等应对特大洪水的对策措施建议,为太湖流域特大洪水的防治提供支撑和参考。 相似文献
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极端洪水灾害具有频率低、影响范围大、损失高等特点,一般常遇洪水的灾害损失评估方法难以适用。分析了极端洪水灾害的自然属性与社会属性,认为极端洪水灾害损失具有时空分布的特性,因此借鉴空间信息格网技术,分别形成了极端洪水水文特性格网与社会经济特性格网,并将其叠加得到具有空间拓扑关系和属性信息的基于GIS的极端洪水损失空间信息格网模型,从而有效地反映了极端洪水灾害的时空特性。结合极端洪水损失率数据库,可评估极端洪水灾害损失。利用该方法评估了1998年特大洪水造成哈尔滨市江南主城区的直接经济损失,实证说明该方法可用于极端洪水灾害损失的评估。 相似文献
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通过对长江洪水的致灾性、河道边界条件及其孕灾性、承载体易损性的分析,论述了长江中游为我国洪灾高危险区的必然性。分析了人类对河流的治理,使河道稳定性增加,减少了洪灾的风险,但是长江中游的局部河段却发生洪水位增高的趋势,又增加了洪灾风险,该区域高危险的基本特性犹存。研究了三峡运行后,长江中下游出现新的防洪形势:一方面三峡水库巨大的防洪库容拦蓄洪水,大大减少了中下游的洪灾,另一方面因河道的强冲刷,使河势变化剧烈、横向摆动增强,局部河段岸壁失稳,又增加防洪压力。同时因总体水面比降趋平,洪灾风险有向下游转移的趋势。未来长江中游仍为洪灾高危险区,仍应给予高度重视。 相似文献
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Hsin-Chi Li Tingyeh Wu Hsiao-Ping Wei Hung-Ju Shih Yi-Chiung Chao 《Natural Hazards》2017,86(3):1039-1058
This study examined the Kaoping River basin, Taiwan, an area severely destroyed by Typhoon Morakot in 2009. Dynamically downscaled data were applied to simulate extreme typhoon precipitation events for facilitating future preparation efforts (2075–2099) under climate change conditions. Models were used to simulate possible impacts in upstream and downstream areas for basinwide disaster loss assessment purposes. The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability and FLO-2D models were applied to simulate slope-land disaster impacts and sediment volume in the upstream area. The sediment delivery ratio was used to calculate the valid sediment amount delivered downstream and the riverbed uplift altitude. SOBEK was used to build a flood impact model for the Kaoping River basin, and the model was used to simulate potential flooding caused by future extreme typhoon events. The Taiwan Typhoon Loss Assessment System established by the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction was used to evaluate the potential loss associated with extreme events. The property loss calculation included 32 land-use categories, including agriculture, forestry, fishery, and animal husbandry losses; industrial and commercial service losses; public building losses; and traffic and hydraulic facility losses. One of the Kaoping River basin townships, Daliao District, had the highest flood depth increase ratio (12.6%), and the losses were 1.5 times the original situation. This was much worse than were the losses suffered during Typhoon Morakot. These results also show that sediment delivered from the upstream areas had a significant influence on the downstream areas. This is a critical issue for future flood mitigation under climate change conditions. 相似文献
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近年来，在全球气候变化和城市化快速发展的共同影响下，中国城市洪涝灾害日益严重，已经成为影响中国城市公共安全的突出问题，严重制约经济社会的持续健康发展。变化环境下城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究是完善城市防洪除涝减灾体系、提升城市防洪除涝能力的重要依据。本文阐述了气候变化和城市化发展对城市洪涝灾害的影响机制，系统分析了城市洪涝灾害的驱动要素和致灾机理，梳理了城市洪涝灾害的风险评估和分区方法，并以济南市海绵城市示范区为例，对城市洪涝灾害风险分区方法进行了分析和对比。 相似文献