共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 109 毫秒
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清理了汶川8.0级地震前四川省地震局收到的每周、月度各单位或个人上报的各类异常资料.这些宏观异常现象主要包括居民生活用井水质变化、泉水变化,气象、动、植物异常现象等.2002～2003年宏观异常现象集中分布在凉山州,多数沿安宁河-则木河构造带以及川滇交界西侧分布;2004～2008年5月宏观异常现象散布在龙门山、龙泉山、鲜水河-安宁河-则木河构造带以及川滇交界地区.四川地区宏观异常项数在2002年4～6月,2003年6～8月间为最为集中出现的两个时段,之后零星出现.对震前龙门山构造带附近出现的宏观现象进行分析后,我们看不出与地震间的必然联系,难以作为预测未来大地震的依据. 相似文献
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1986年8月12日18时45分在我省盐源县发生5.4级地震,这次地震的震级虽然不高,但震前出现的宏观异常现象却很明显、普遍。据震后调查资料分析,这些宏观异常现象不仅种类繁多(地下水、各类动物、人感、局部天象等),而且还有一定的分布规律。 相似文献
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近20多年来,我国发生的多次强烈地震前都出现了大量的动物行为异常现象,在海城、松潘等地震的临震预报中,动物行为异常现象显示了一定的作用,引起了国内外的注意.唐山大震后的考察中,由幸存者的叙述,搜集到了大量的动物异常现象,据震后调查,唐山大震前出现行为异常现象的动物近70种.其中,无脊椎动物14种,鱼类12种,爬行类4种,鸟类15种,哺乳动物23种.异常现象较明显、数量较多的有30余种,共2202起异常现象.大牲畜、猪、羊、狗、猫、鸡、鱼、鼠、黄鼬等动物的异常现象较普遍,约占总异常起数的90%这些资料的统计结果表明,唐山大地震前的动物异常现象主要出现在震前两天 相似文献
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实地调查表明,许多大型滑坡发生之前,往往出现一系列突发性的宏观征兆和异常现象。本文通过这些征兆、异常现象及其时、空分布与形成物理机制的分析研究,探讨了预测大滑坡发生的时间及其可能性。初步研究认为: 1.大、中型滑坡的发生,大多伴有滑前宏观征兆和某些特殊异常现象。这些异常和征兆具有明显的时、空分布和一定的序列特征。2.根据这些异常和征兆特征及其与滑体运动之间的关系,提出了大、中型滑坡在临近主滑时间的各种宏观标志和异常信息。3.根据这些标志信息,预测预报大、中型滑坡的发生,鉴定预滑体的稳定性和滑动趋势是可能的。此外,对滑前宏观征兆与地震宏观前兆的区别问题及其意义,也作了相应的讨论。 相似文献
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对１９９８年１０月１８日大同－阳高６．１级震群同的多种宏观前兆异常现象进行了调查与研究,叙述了在同－阳高地前宏观前铛异常的主要表现形式,分析了这些宏观前兆异常 时、空、强分布规律及其与地震的关系,得出此次地震宏观前兆异常主要表现在突发性,害有兆异常空间分布的集中程度与烈度成正比,异常的空间展布方向与地震活动构造相关的结论。 相似文献
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《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)
Abstract Abstract A new theoretically-based distribution in frequency analysis is proposed. The extended three-parameter Burr XII distribution includes the generalized Pareto distribution, which is used to model the exceedences over threshold; log-logistic distribution, which is also advocated in flood frequency analysis; and Weibull distribution, which is a part of the generalized extreme value distribution used to model annual maxima as special cases. The extended Burr distribution is flexible to approximate extreme value distribution. Note that both the generalized Pareto and generalized extreme value distributions are limiting results in modelling the exceedences over threshold and block extremes, respectively. From a modelling perspective, generalization might be necessary in order to obtain a better fit. The extended three-parameter Burr XII distribution is therefore a meaningful candidate distribution in the frequency analysis. Maximum likelihood estimation for this distribution is investigated in the paper. The use of the extended three-parameter Burr XII distribution is demonstrated using data from China. 相似文献
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Using the earthquake sequences data with MS≥6.5 since 1966 in Sichuan-Yunnan region, we research the charac-teristic of the magnitude difference distribution between main shocks and their strong aftershocks; and then study the spatial distribution characteristic of the strong aftershocks away from their main shocks. The result shows that the magnitude difference distribution obeys intercepted exponential distribution, while the spatial distribution of strong aftershocks obeys normal distribution and the dominated distribution area of strong shocks is 10~39 km away from main shock. Finally the probability density function of the magnitude difference distribution and the spatial distribution of strong aftershocks is deduced. 相似文献
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Many environmental pollution issues from highway runoff increasingly become a serious concern, which has been revealed by many previous studies. However, very less information is available on the distribution characteristics of pollutants and their mutual influence in highway runoff. In this paper, the partitioning of pollutant and particle size distribution were investigated based on the initial road runoff of 47 rainfall events from July 2007 to May 2009 on the Lukou section of the Nanjing Airport Expressway, China. This study is emphasizing on the analysis of the mutual impact of pollutant distribution and the relationship between particle size and pollutant distribution. The impact of rainfall characteristics, water temperature, and pH values in runoff samples on the pollutant distribution was also studied. Result shows that partitioning of different pollutants was varying significantly. Volume of particles in different sizes was different, with the highest volume of particles of 21–75 µm size. The distribution of COD highly affected the distribution of TN, and somewhat promoted the distribution of Pb in particles. TP, Pb, and Cd promoted distribution of each other's in particles. There was better competition among Zn, Cu, and Cd, when heavy metals combined with particles. The particles ranged between 21 and 75 µm size had an obvious impact on the distribution of COD, Pb, and TN in the particulate matter. TP in the particulate matter mainly distributed in particles ranged in 151–300 µm size. Rainfall duration significantly affected the Pb in particulate matter. The distribution of Zn in the particulate matter mostly was affected by pH values. 相似文献
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地震复发间隔的概率分布是计算地震发生概率的基础.利用我国历史地震目录资料,统计分析中国大陆中强地震归一化区域复发间隔,分析发现中国大陆中强地震活动兼具周期性和丛集性特点.采用对数正态分布与指数分布构建混合概率分布模型,通过最小二乘法拟合混合概率分布函数的最优参数.拟合结果的误差分析表明,混合概率分布模型更加符合中国大陆... 相似文献
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T. S. Gubareva 《Water Resources》2011,38(7):962-971
The development of an optimal scheme for evaluation of maximal water discharges is discussed, including adequate probability
distribution laws, an effective procedure for their approximation based on observational data, and reliable goodness-of-fit
tests for analytical and empirical distributions. One-dimensional probability distribution laws are systematized. Promising
distributions were identified, including generalized distribution of extreme values, lognormal distribution, Pearson type
V power distribution, and GPD, for evaluating maximal discharges. The available methods for approximating analytical curves,
including the up-to-date method of L-moments are considered. Parameter estimation algorithm based on L-moment method for Pearson type III distribution is considered. Pearson type III distribution, lognormal distribution, GEV,
and GPD are compared in the approximation of maximal water discharges in rivers of Austria, Siberia, Far East, and the Hawaiian
Islands. 相似文献
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Dipankar Chaudhuri 《国际泥沙研究》2017,32(2)
An accurate prediction of sediment distribution may minimize economic losses through proper and timely planning of the functional activities of a reservoir.This study assesses different temporal and spatial factors that affect for sediment deposition in a reservoir and its distribution.This study also focuses on evaluation of two popular distribution prediction methodologies,Area Increment and Empirical Area Reduction,based on experience with sediment distribution in 57 reservoirs in the USA and India.A non-iterative processed empirical distribution model(NPEDM) and a linear regression trend model(LRTM) are proposed to predict sediment distribution.Silt contributing area and inflow entering a reservoir are found to be the most significant factors affecting in reservoir sediment deposition.Compared to the Empirical Area Reduction method,the Area Increment method provided better prediction.The reservoir classification approach and empirical design distribution type curves given by Borland and Miller(1960) are found to be rational.Shape factor values for different periods indicate that reservoir shape(type) changes with time.Thus,long term prediction is not desirable in Type-Ⅱ Ⅲ reservoirs using the Empirical Area Reduction method.Newly developed the NPEDM shows reasonably good prediction of sediment distribution.The NPEDM is very easy to apply and can be used in any reservoir of any size.Extrapolation of the trend of sediment distribution obtained from the LRTM indicates an accurate short term prediction in a few reservoirs as causes of temporal and spatial variations of sediment distribution including the factors of uncertainties of sediment deposition are implicit within the methodology. 相似文献
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HOU Yijun GUO Peifang SONG Guiting SONG Jinbao YIN Baoshu & ZHAO Xixi . Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences Qingdao China . Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2006,49(4):443-448
1 Introduction The probability distribution of ocean wave element is one of the results of application of random process theory to the ocean wave study. A great amount of outcome has obtained in this field[1,2]. In fact, a great deal of research on linear… 相似文献