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Ground-motion prediction equations for the intermediate depth Vrancea (Romania) earthquakes 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Vladimir Sokolov Klaus-Peter Bonjer Friedemann Wenzel Bogdan Grecu Mircea Radulian 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2008,6(3):367-388
We present the regional ground-motion prediction equations for peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV),
pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA), and seismic intensity (MSK scale) for the Vrancea intermediate depth earthquakes (SE-Carpathians)
and territory of Romania. The prediction equations were constructed using the stochastic technique on the basis of the regional
Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) source scaling and attenuation models and the generalised site amplification functions. Values
of considered ground motion parameters are given as the functions of earthquake magnitude, depth and epicentral distance.
The developed ground-motion models were tested and calibrated using the available data from the large Vrancea earthquakes.
We suggest to use the presented equations for the rapid estimation of seismic effect after strong earthquakes (Shakemap generation)
and seismic hazard assessment, both deterministic and probabilistic approaches. 相似文献
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An energy-based envelope function is developed for use in the stochastic simulation of earthquake ground motion. The envelope function is directly related to the Arias intensity of the ground motion as well to the manner in which this Arias intensity is built-up over time. It is shown that this build-up, represented by a Husid plot, can be very well modelled using a simple lognormal distribution. The proposed envelope makes use of parameters that are commonly available in seismic design situations, either following a deterministic scenario-type analysis or following a more comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), either in terms of Arias intensity or the more common spectral acceleration. The shape parameters of the envelope function are estimated following the calculation of the analytic envelopes for a large number of records from PEER Next Generation of Attenuation (NGA) database. The envelope may also be used to predict the distribution of peak ground acceleration values corresponding to an earthquake scenario. The distribution thus obtained is remarkably consistent with those of the recent NGA models. 相似文献
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A probabilistic representation of the entire ground‐motion time history can be constructed based on a stochastic model that depends on seismic source parameters. An advanced stochastic simulation scheme known as Subset Simulation can then be used to efficiently compute the small failure probabilities corresponding to structural limit states. Alternatively, the uncertainty in the ground motion can be represented by adopting a parameter (or a vector of parameters) known as the intensity measure (IM) that captures the dominant features of the ground shaking. Structural performance assessment based on this representation can be broken down into two parts, namely, the structure‐specific part requiring performance assessment for a given value of the IM, and the site‐specific part requiring estimation of the likelihood that ground shaking with a given value of the IM takes place. The effect of these two alternative representations of ground‐motion uncertainty on probabilistic structural response is investigated for two hazard cases. In the first case, these two approaches are compared for a scenario earthquake event with a given magnitude and distance. In the second case, they are compared using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to take into account the potential of the surrounding faults to produce events with a range of possible magnitudes and distances. The two approaches are compared on the basis of the probabilistic response of an existing reinforced‐concrete frame structure, which is known to have suffered shear failure in its columns during the 1994 Northridge Earthquake in Los Angeles, California. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Following a companion article, ground motion acceleration time historiesduring earthquakes can be described as realizations of non-stationarystochastic processes with evolutionary frequency content and instantaneousintensity. The parameters characterizing those processes can be handled asuncertain variables with probabilistic distributions that depend on themagnitude of each seismic event and the corresponding source-to-sitedistance. Accordingly, the generation of finite samples of artificial groundmotion acceleration time histories for earthquakes of given intensities isformulated as a two-stage Monte Carlo simulation process. The first stageincludes the simulation of samples of sets of the parameters of thestochastic process models of earthquake ground motion. The second stageincludes the simulation of the time histories themselves, given theparameters of the associated stochastic process model. In order to accountfor the dependence of the probability distribution of the latter parameterson magnitude and source-to-site distance, the joint conditional probabilitydistribution of these variables must be obtained for a given value of theground motion intensity. This is achieved by resorting to Bayes Theoremabout the probabilities of alternate assumptions.Two options for the conditional simulation of ground motion time historiesare presented. The more refined option makes use of all the informationabout the conditional distribution of magnitude and distance for thepurpose of simulating values of the statistical parameters of the groundmotion stochastic process models. The second option considers allprobabilities concentrated at the most likely combination of magnitude anddistance for each of the seismic sources that contribute significantly to theseismic hazard at the site of interest. 相似文献
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A method for generating an ensemble of orthogonal horizontal ground motion components with correlated parameters for specified earthquake and site characteristics is presented. The method employs a parameterized stochastic model that is based on a time‐modulated filtered white‐noise process with the filter having time‐varying characteristics. Whereas the input white‐noise excitation describes the stochastic nature of the ground motion, the forms of the modulating function and the filter and their parameters characterize the evolutionary intensity and nonstationary frequency content of the ground motion. The stochastic model is fitted to a database of recorded horizontal ground motion component pairs that are rotated into their principal axes, a set of orthogonal axes along which the components are statistically uncorrelated. Model parameters are identified for each ground motion component in the database. Using these data, predictive equations are developed for the model parameters in terms of earthquake and site characteristics and correlation coefficients between parameters of the two components are estimated. Given a design scenario specified in terms of earthquake and site characteristics, the results of this study allow one to generate realizations of correlated model parameters and use them along with simulated white‐noise processes to generate synthetic pairs of horizontal ground motion components along the principal axes. The proposed simulation method does not require any seed recorded ground motion and is ideal for use in performance‐based earthquake engineering. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Ruifang Yu Yisheng Song Xiangyun Guo Qianli Yang Xinjuan He Yanxiang Yu 《地震科学（英文版）》2022,35(5):314-328
Seismic hazard analyses are mainly performed using either deterministic or probabilistic methods. However, there are still some defects in these statistical model-based approaches for regional seismic risk assessment affected by the near-field of large earthquakes. Therefore, we established a deterministic seismic hazard analysis method that can characterize the entire process of ground motion propagation based on stochastic finite-fault simulation, and we chose the site of the Xiluodu dam to demonstrate the method. This method can characterize earthquake source properties more realistically than other methods and consider factors such as the path and site attenuation of seismic waves. It also has high computational efficiency and is convenient for engineering applications. We first analyzed the complexity of seismogenic structures in the Xiluodu dam site area, and then an evaluation system for ground motion parameters that considers various uncertainties is constructed based on a stochastic finite-fault simulation. Finally, we assessed the seismic hazard of the dam site area comprehensively. The proposed method was able to take into account the complexity of the seismogenic structures affecting the dam site and provide multi-level parameter evaluation results corresponding to different risk levels. These results can be used to construct a dam safety assessment system of an earthquake in advance that provides technical support for rapidly and accurately assessing the post-earthquake damage state of a dam, thus determining the influence of an earthquake on dam safety and mitigating the risk of potential secondary disasters. 相似文献
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This paper deals with the use of ARMA models in earthquake engineering. Tools and methods applied to strong ground motion are discussed emphasizing simulation of probabilistic earthquake response spectra. The ARMA models are applied to Icelandic earthquake data and a tentative model for Icelandic earthquakes is presented. This model, which is derived using 54 accelerograms, is based on a low-order, time-invariant ARMA process excited by Gaussian white noise and amplitude modulated using a simple envelope function to account for the non-stationary characteristics. This simple model gives a reasonable fit to the observed ground motion. Further, this model produces accurate earthquake response spectra, which, combined with accompanying attenuation and duration formulae, might be useful in earthquake hazard and risk assessment. 相似文献
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A method for generating a suite of synthetic ground motion time‐histories for specified earthquake and site characteristics defining a design scenario is presented. The method employs a parameterized stochastic model that is based on a modulated, filtered white‐noise process. The model parameters characterize the evolving intensity, predominant frequency, and bandwidth of the acceleration time‐history, and can be identified by matching the statistics of the model to the statistics of a target‐recorded accelerogram. Sample ‘observations’ of the parameters are obtained by fitting the model to a subset of the NGA database for far‐field strong ground motion records on firm ground. Using this sample, predictive equations are developed for the model parameters in terms of the faulting mechanism, earthquake magnitude, source‐to‐site distance, and the site shear‐wave velocity. For any specified set of these earthquake and site characteristics, sets of the model parameters are generated, which are in turn used in the stochastic model to generate the ensemble of synthetic ground motions. The resulting synthetic acceleration as well as corresponding velocity and displacement time‐histories capture the main features of real earthquake ground motions, including the intensity, duration, spectral content, and peak values. Furthermore, the statistics of their resulting elastic response spectra closely agree with both the median and the variability of response spectra of recorded ground motions, as reflected in the existing prediction equations based on the NGA database. The proposed method can be used in seismic design and analysis in conjunction with or instead of recorded ground motions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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—?The problem of accounting for local soil effect on earthquake ground motion is especially urgent when assessing seismic hazard – recent needs of earthquake engineering require local site effects to be included into hazard maps. However, most recent works do not consider the variety of soil conditions or are performed for generalized site categories, such as “hard rock,”“soft soil” or “alluvium.” A technique of seismic hazard calculations on the basis of the Fourier Amplitude Spectra recently developed by the authors allows us to create hazard maps involving the influence of local soil conditions using soil/bedrock spectral ratios. Probabilistic microzoning maps may be constructed showing macroseismic intensity, peak ground acceleration, response and design spectra for various return periods (probability of exceedance), that allow optimization of engineering decisions. An application of this approach is presented which focused on the probabilistic microzoning of the Tashkent City. 相似文献
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Ground‐motion intensity and damage map selection for probabilistic infrastructure network risk assessment using optimization 
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下载免费PDF全文 In many parts of the world, earthquakes threaten regional infrastructure systems. For modeling risk using stochastic earthquake catalogs, random variables include rupture location and the damage state of different components. Thus, there is an infinite set of possible damage maps that a risk modeler could evaluate in an event‐based probabilistic loss model. Even a finite but large number of damage maps may not be practical, because many network performance measures are computationally expensive. Here, we show a computationally efficient method for selecting a subset of damage maps, corresponding ground‐motion intensity maps, and associated occurrence rates that reasonably estimates the full distribution of the ground‐motion intensity and a target performance measure using optimization. The method chooses a subset of maps and associated annual rates of occurrence that minimizes the error in estimating the distribution of a network performance measure as well as the marginal distributions of ground‐motion intensity exceedance. The joint distribution of the ground‐motion intensity is implicitly included in the objective function of the optimization problem via the network performance measure. We then show how to tune the optimization parameters based on consistency checks related to the network performance measure and the ground‐motion hazard. We illustrate the proposed method with a case study of the San Francisco Bay Area road network to estimate the exceedance curve of the average percentage change in morning commute trip time. This work facilitates expanded and risk‐consistent studies of the impacts of infrastructure networks on regional seismic risk and resiliency. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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概率一致设定地震及其估计方法 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
罗奇峰 《地震工程与工程振动》1996,16(3):22-29
本文首先讨论已有的主凤定地震的概念及其存在的问题，然后提出一在指定场点产生超越概率为Ｐ０、地震动强度为ｙ（ｐ０）的潜在震源区的概率一致设定地震的定义及其震级Ｍ（ｐ０）震中距Ｒ（ｐ０）震中的确定方法。 相似文献
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Intensity-based seismic risk assessment 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
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本文根据保定市及周围地区的地震地质环境，在地震危险性分析的基础上，采用等效线性一维波动方程进行土层的地震反应分析。给出50年超越概率63％、10％、2％基岩和地面的水平向峰值加速度、反应谱（场址基本烈度Ⅶ度）和地震影响系数最大值。该结果为抗震设计提供了可靠依据，具有应用价值。 相似文献
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中强地震活动区地震动衰减关系的确定 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
地震动衰减关系是影响地震安全性评价特别是地震区划结果的重要因素.我国现行的地震动衰减关系主要是依据6级以上地震的地面运动资料得到的,并没有考虑中强地震的衰减特性.为此,文中利用现有的烈度资料和其他可供参考的研究成果来建立我国中强地震活动区的地震动衰减关系.收集了我国华中、华南、东北等地区的51次地震的烈度等震线资料,运用单随机变量加权最小二乘回归法得到中强地震活动区烈度衰减关系.然后以美国西部地区为参考地区,运用缺乏地震动参数的地震动估计方法-地震对映射法得到中强地震活动区峰值加速度和有效峰值加速度衰减关系.最后,通过与我国强地震区和中强地震区已有的烈度衰减关系和地震动衰减关系的对比,验证了得出的我国中强地震活动区烈度衰减关系和地震动衰减关系的合理性. 相似文献
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Best estimate seismic analysis are generally based on time‐domain simulations of structural responses. The seismic load is then modeled by a stochastic process representing ground motion. For this purpose, the analyst can use recorded accelerograms or work with synthetically generated ones. The number of ground motion time‐histories available for a given scenario and site condition is limited and generally not sufficient for carrying out more advanced probabilistic structural response analysis. It is then necessary to have at our disposal methods that allow for generating synthetic accelerograms that realistically characterize earthquake ground motions. However, most of the methods proposed in literature for generating synthetic accelerograms do not accurately reproduce the natural variability of ground motion parameters (such as PGA, cumulative absolute velocity, and Arias intensity) observed for recorded time histories. In this paper, we introduce a new method for generating synthetic ground motion, based on Karhunen‐Loève decomposition and a non‐Gaussian stochastic model. The proposed method enables the structural analyst to simulate ground motion time histories featuring the properties mentioned above. To demonstrate its capability, we study the influence of the simulation method on different ground motion parameters and on soil response spectra. We finally compute fragility curves to illustrate the practical application of the proposed method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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不同抗震标准下的海洋石油平台设计地震动参数研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
在海洋石油平台抗震标准方面,中国与美国规范之间存在一定的差异。本文首先介绍了两国抗震规范中的相关内容。以渤海某油田为例,根据渤海及邻区的地震构造、地震活动环境及地震动衰减关系,利用概率方法进行地震危险性分析;采用一维等效线性化方法,根据场地土动力性能试验资料,确定不同抗震标准下的设计地震动参数。最后分析不同抗震标准下的地震动参数关系,以及对工程设计的影响。结合我国渤海与美国南加利福尼亚地区的地震活动性对比分析,对我国海洋石油平台的设防地震水准提出建议。 相似文献
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Two key issues distinguish probabilistic seismic risk analysis of a lifeline or portfolio of structures from that of a single structure. Regional analysis must consider the correlation among lifeline components or structures in the portfolio, and the larger scope makes it much more computationally demanding. In this paper, we systematically identify and compare alternative methods for regional hazard analysis that can be used as the first part of a computationally efficient regional probabilistic seismic risk analysis that properly considers spatial correlation. Specifically, each method results in a set of probabilistic ground motion maps with associated hazard‐consistent annual occurrence probabilities that together represent the regional hazard. The methods are compared according to how replicable and computationally tractable they are and the extent to which the resulting maps are physically realistic, consistent with the regional hazard and regional spatial correlation, and few in number. On the basis of a conceptual comparison and an empirical comparison for Los Angeles, we recommend a combination of simulation and optimization approaches: (i) Monte Carlo simulation with importance sampling of the earthquake magnitudes to generate a set of probabilistic earthquake scenarios (defined by source and magnitude); (ii) the optimization‐based probabilistic scenario method, a mixed‐integer linear program, to reduce the size of that set; (iii) Monte Carlo simulation to generate a set of probabilistic ground motion maps, varying the number of maps sampled from each earthquake scenario so as to minimize the sampling variance; and (iv) the optimization‐based probabilistic scenario again to reduce the set of probabilistic ground motion maps. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Modification of stochastic ground motion models for matching target intensity measures 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Stochastic ground motion models produce synthetic time‐histories by modulating a white noise sequence through functions that address spectral and temporal properties of the excitation. The resultant ground motions can be then used in simulation‐based seismic risk assessment applications. This is established by relating the parameters of the aforementioned functions to earthquake and site characteristics through predictive relationships. An important concern related to the use of these models is the fact that through current approaches in selecting these predictive relationships, compatibility to the seismic hazard is not guaranteed. This work offers a computationally efficient framework for the modification of stochastic ground motion models to match target intensity measures (IMs) for a specific site and structure of interest. This is set as an optimization problem with a dual objective. The first objective minimizes the discrepancy between the target IMs and the predictions established through the stochastic ground motion model for a chosen earthquake scenario. The second objective constraints the deviation from the model characteristics suggested by existing predictive relationships, guaranteeing that the resultant ground motions not only match the target IMs but are also compatible with regional trends. A framework leveraging kriging surrogate modeling is formulated for performing the resultant multi‐objective optimization, and different computational aspects related to this optimization are discussed in detail. The illustrative implementation shows that the proposed framework can provide ground motions with high compatibility to target IMs with small only deviation from existing predictive relationships and discusses approaches for selecting a final compromise between these two competing objectives. 相似文献