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1.
台风目标观测对于弥补常规观测资料不足和提升台风数值预报技巧等具有重要意义.总结了2类理论方法的发展过程和优缺点:基于伴随的非线性方法能够较好地刻画非线性项的影响,而基于集合的方法在计算速度上更具有优势.同时回顾了一些能够代表当前气象观测水平的新装备和新技术在中国近海登陆台风外场观测试验中的应用,并从个例分析和统计分析两个角度总结了开展台风目标观测的有效性.通过总结发现,切线性近似、模式误差、度量范数和集合成员个数等都是影响台风目标观测的主要因素,它们可能会导致识别得到的台风敏感区之间存在一定差异,因此不能被忽略.未来应该更加关注台风强度目标观测的研究,在此基础上进一步推动非线性方法和数值模式的发展,并探索能够适合我国业务实际情况的台风目标观测实施方案. 相似文献
2.
我国东南沿海地区台风登陆频繁,伴生暴雨诱发的台风型滑坡造成了严重的经济损失和人员伤亡。已有研究在单峰型、多峰型台风暴雨的斜坡水文响应过程及稳定性分析方面取得了一定成果,但缺乏对台风暴雨型滑坡滞后效应的研究和机理分析。为此,以台风“利奇马”在浙江青田县的登陆为例,基于对台风型滑坡发生数量与降雨量的统计,构建16组不同结构组合的斜坡模型,模拟在台风登陆过程中不同降雨工况条件下斜坡的渗流—稳定性变化。结果表明,台风“利奇马”离陆后青田县内仍有26.4%的滑坡发生,存在一定滞后;不同结构组合斜坡稳定性在离陆后最低,相较于台风登陆前稳定性系数降低了13.82%;在台风登陆暴雨作用下,青田县斜坡稳定性结构影响参数中坡度最为敏感;讨论认为在台风不同登陆阶段的降雨会导致边坡的入渗特征差异,从而形成滞后效应。研究结论对于该区域的台风型滑坡早期识别具有一定指导意义。 相似文献
3.
温州多普勒天气雷达(CINRAD-SA)建于面临东海的大罗山顶(海拔714m),探测环境较好,它对0414号台风云娜(Rananim)进行了系统性跟踪探测,取得了完整的基数据资料。应用该多普勒天气雷达连续探测资料,配合地面中尺度自动站加密观测资料,通过云娜台风登陆前后的螺旋云带、台风"眼"眼壁、垂直累积含水量和降水量与眼区速度谱宽、台风内中尺度环流等分析,研究了登陆前后台风强度和雷达径向速度的演变特征;同时使用MM5(V3.6)中尺度数值模式结合雷达数值产品分析,就地形对台风演变特征的影响进行了研究,初步揭示了地形影响的一些主要演变特征。研究发现:云娜台风中心登陆之前,位于海上的台风"眼"眼壁在8km高度以下基本垂直,在8km高度以上"眼"的直径明显增大。当台风登陆时,由于受地形影响,其眼壁出现向前或向右前方倾斜,台风"眼"内回波由低层向高层"填塞"。台风眼"填塞"后,台风环流重又加强,使得强回波主体(＞35dbz)仍可保持眼壁轮廓并能持续相当一段时间,这一现象在数值试验中得到了证实;在台风暴雨系统中垂直累积液态水含量(VIL)相同时,由于液态水含量的密实程度不同"降水效率"差异极大,有时可使降水量的差异达到2.5倍甚至更大;台风登陆时,眼壁速度谱宽急剧变化,从到达陆地眼壁前部的低层起到高层增大。多普勒速度谱宽的这种变化与低空西南急流的维持与否相一致。在3~5km高度以上,谱宽较为稳定,表明该高度层的西南急流稳定维持;台风登陆时,受到地形和山脉影响,最大风速半径及台风环流强度随时间的推延,低层最大环流中心移速减慢、最大风速半径开始缩小;台风暴雨的降雨强度与其气旋性涡旋的动力辐合上升强度趋于一致,从多普勒径向速度场产品可以直观地识别、判断和分析辐合辐散运动与冷暧平流的迭加风场。强降水区集中在台风的右前侧,与台风回波强度的不对称结构相一致,并有明显的"眼"的形状。台风环流在乐清砩头、永嘉中堡附近喇叭口状地形幅合作用显著;东南气流与北雁荡山脉形成的较大夹角,对暖湿气流强迫抬升作用十分明显。 相似文献
4.
泥石流灾害是我国东南地区引起群死群伤的主要自然灾害,目前对其发育规律和区域预报的研究程度还较低.基于浙江省小流域泥石流地质灾害调查评价成果数据,开展沟谷泥石流发育特征和时空分布规律研究,研究表明,浙江省泥石流发生时期集中在台汛期和梅汛期,其中台汛期发生的泥石流占总数的70.1%,梅汛期占27.4%,可见台风诱因显著;泥石流在浙江省三大降雨区,即台风雨主控区、梅雨主控区和梅台雨兼容区的空间分布具有明显差异性,总体上东南沿海一带台风雨控制区分布密度要大于西部和北部地区,而梅汛期发生泥石流则比较明显集中在西部地区.在此基础上,分别求取了梅汛期和台汛期的浙江省东南地层区和杨子地层区引发泥石流的降雨阈值;选择泥石流易发程度区划图、24h预报雨量和前期有效降雨量3个因子,以小流域作为评价单元,基于可拓理论方法,构建了泥石流危险性区域预报模型.采用灾害强度R值和危险性等级面积百分比累加-泥石流频度百分比累加曲线两种方法,以2004年“云娜”台风期间和2006年6月份梅雨期发生的泥石流灾害样本开展模型合理性检验,证明预测结果合理. 相似文献
5.
浙江省登陆台风暴雨落区研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
分析了1949～2007年在浙江登陆的38次台风的年内分布和迁移规律,台风强度与暴雨中心雨量关系,最大暴雨落区.结果表明:浙江沿海登陆台风以7～8月份为最多;前后两次台风登陆点以区间迁移为主;最大暴雨中心雨量与登陆时台风中心风力、气压关系不密切;最大暴雨落区与台风登陆点位置、登陆后的运动路径和离登陆点的距离关系不大.也研究了登陆台风致涝暴雨分布区域,在防台风实践中,应依此客观事实调整台风暴雨山洪的防御战略. 相似文献
6.
我国登陆台风影响区地质灾害易发性分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
地质环境脆弱的地区,台风的特大暴雨可以诱发山体滑坡和泥石流等地质灾害,造成严重人员伤亡。本文分析了我国登陆台风影响区域内的地质灾害时空分布特点,利用信息量方法,通过灾害的易发性区划来分析登陆台风影响区地质灾害特征,进而比较台风和非台风影响条件下地质灾害产生的地理条件和信息量差异。分析结果表明,在台风强降雨条件下,地质灾害的触发地质环境条件较非台风降雨触发地质灾害明显降低,地质灾害脆弱性明显增加。 相似文献
7.
《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2015,(Z1)
台风苏拉于2012年7月28日在菲律宾东部海域形成,生成后向北偏西方向移动,于7月30日下午加强为台风,8月1日14时加强为强台风,并于1日19时在台湾花莲登陆。登陆后强度逐渐减弱,并于2日22时在福建福鼎二次登陆,登陆时中心最大风力33m/s,登陆后继续深入福建,并减弱为热带风暴,于3日晚上停止编号。台风苏拉强度强、移速慢、与西南季风结合局地雨强大、影响时间长范围广,在福建登陆后继续向内陆移动,对福建近岸海洋沉积环境产生了显著的影响。台风对海洋沉积环境和沉积过程有重要的影响。本研究利用高分辨率浅地层剖面探测技术和放射性同位素方法探测了福建近岸在台风苏拉路径附近海域形成的风暴沉积层。两种方法获得的台风风暴沉积层厚度为10~25 cm。沉积层厚度、沉积物粒度、δ13C值分布特征显示沉积层的物质主要来源于海底沉积物的再悬浮和再分配。风暴沉积层内沉积物粒度呈现变粗的趋势,显示细粒级组分在更广范围内扩散。浅地层剖面探测技术和放射性地球化学方法结合,为估算台风影响提供了新的方法。 相似文献
8.
卫星导风在台风路径预报中的应用进展 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
台风作为全球危害巨大的自然灾害,对其路径预报的准确度尤为重要.在常规观测资料稀少的热带洋面上,卫星云图是监测热带气旋的主要工具,其中卫星导风技术,通过对云及晴空区特征的追踪,反演出的卫星风矢,在一定程度上弥补了海洋上由于风场观测资料稀缺对台风路径研究的限制,显著提高了台风路径预报水平.结合近年来逐步成熟的卫星导风中的云导风技术在台风预报上的应用,总结了国内云导风技术在改善台风路径预报中的贡献,如加密观测资料、台风中心定位、优化数值模式初始场和客观分析场、构造人造台风Bogus模型以及由其揭示的发展和不发展热带气旋的对流层上部环流特征,同时展望了卫星导风技术及其资料在台风预报实际应用中有待进一步研究的内容. 相似文献
9.
无人飞机在台风探测中的应用进展 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
与有人飞机的台风探测不同,无人飞机(也称无人机)因其相对低的成本且无人员伤亡风险等优势,自1997年一款名为"气象侦察兵(Aerosonde)"投入台风探测试验以来,受到国际社会的广泛关注。随着无人机技术的迅猛发展,无人机的飞行高度、有效荷载和续航能力等性能不断提高,更多的台风特种观测仪器被搭载,特别是2010年NASA使用高空长航时无人机"全球鹰(Global Hawk)"对大西洋5个飓风的飞行探测取得成功后,基于无人机平台建立高空下投探空和近地/水面飞行观测相结合的台风精细结构探测体系渐成趋势。目前我国尚未建立飞机探测台风的业务,严重制约了我国台风定位定强和台风数值预报精度的进一步提高。鉴于此,简要概述了境内外无人机在台风探测中的实践和发展趋势,旨在推进我国无人机探测台风的实践及其业务化体系的建设。 相似文献
10.
在我国东南沿海山地丘陵区,台风暴雨常诱发大量山体滑坡、崩塌和泥石流地质灾害,造成财产严重损失和人员伤亡。以2015年登陆的"苏罗迪"台风为例,在系统分析"苏罗迪"台风诱发地质灾害时空分布和预警效果的基础上,得出了如下结论:(1)"苏罗迪"台风诱发的600余处崩滑流灾害,主要集中分布在浙江、福建等东南沿海地区,灾害规模以小型为主,滑坡、崩塌、泥石流数量比例约为6∶2∶1,具有空间集中群发性;台风降雨诱发地质灾害具有"即雨即滑"的特点,当日降雨当日崩滑,具有强降雨当日即发性;小时降雨空间分布不均匀,地质灾害发生时间往往比平均小时大雨强滞后,滞后时间约1~2h,具有大雨强小时滞后性。因此,台风降雨诱发地质灾害具有空间集中群发性、强降雨当日即发性、大雨强小时滞后性三大特征。(2)提出了基于"命中率、漏报率和空报率"三指标的地质灾害预警校验方法,建立完善了各指标的测算方法和计算公式。"苏罗迪"台风地质灾害预警校验结果显示,本次过程中地质灾害气象预警效果总体较好,保证了较高的命中率,较低的漏报率,但预警区空报率偏高。除地质灾害气象预警本身的技术难度外,降雨预报准确率偏低特别是极端降雨预报不足的现状也是造成地质灾害空报率偏高的原因之一。 相似文献
11.
Strong wind and rainfall induced by extreme meteorological processes such as typhoons have a serious impact on the safety of bridges and offshore engineering structures. A new bivariate compound extreme value distribution is proposed to describe the probability dependency structure of annual extreme wind speed and concomitant process maximum rainfall intensity in typhoon-affected area. This probability model takes full account of the case that there may be no rainfall in a typhoon process. A case study based on the observation data of typhoon maximum wind speed and maximum rainfall intensity in Shanghai is conducted to testify the efficiency of the model. Weibull distributions with two parameters are applied to fit respective probability margins, and the joint probability distribution is constructed by Gumbel–Hougaard copula. The fitting results and K–S tests show that these models describe the original data well. The joint return periods are calculated by Poisson bivariate compound extreme value distribution we have proposed. They indicate that typhoons with no rain have smaller joint return periods, and wind speed is the main factor which impacts the change of the joint return periods. 相似文献
12.
Coupling typhoon rainfall forecasting with overland-flow modeling for early warning of inundation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Tsung-Yi Pan Lung-Yao Chang Jihn-Sung Lai Hsiang-Kuan Chang Cheng-Shang Lee Yih-Chi Tan 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(3):1763-1793
Taiwan suffers from an average of three or four typhoons annually, and the inundation caused by the heavy precipitation that is associated with typhoons frequently occurs in lowlands and floodplains. Potential inundation maps have been widely used as references to set up non-structural strategies for mitigating flood hazards. However, spatiotemporal rainfall distributions must be addressed to improve the accuracy of inundation forecasting for emergency response operations. This study presents a system for 24-h-ahead early warning of inundation, by coupling the forecasting of typhoon rainfall with the modeling of overland flow. A typhoon rainfall climatology model (TRCM) is introduced to forecast dynamically the spatiotemporal rainfall distribution based on typhoon tracks. The systematic scheme for early warning of inundation based on the spatiotemporal downscaling of rainfall and 2D overland-flow modeling yields not only the extent of inundation, but also the time to maximum inundation depth. The scheme is superior to traditional early warning method referring to the maximum extent and depth of inundation determined from conditional uniform rainfall. Analytical results show that coupling TRCM with an overland-flow model yields satisfactory inundation hydrographs for warning of the extent and peak time of inundation. This study also shows that the accuracy of forecasting spatiotemporal rainfall patterns determines the performance of inundation forecasting, which is critical to emergency response operations. 相似文献
13.
基于台风发源地、运动路径,以及对太湖流域影响范围、降雨量等特征的分析,提出影响太湖流域台风的刻画标准。据此从1949～2010年的台风资料中遴选出230场影响太湖流域的台风。采用非参数统计、累积距平曲线及Morlet连续小波分析等方法,剖析影响太湖流域台风的频次、年内最早及最晚影响时间等参数的趋势、突变和周期性,并分析了台风与ENSO现象的关系。结果表明:影响太湖流域台风的频次和最早影响时间变化的趋势性不显著,而最晚影响时间则有显著推后的趋势;台风频次的变化呈现"少-多-少-多"波动时演变特性,并可能存在21～22a、6～8a的振荡周期;研究对太湖流域防洪减灾具有一定的指导意义。 相似文献
14.
Frequent debris flow disasters caused by heavy precipitation during the annual typhoon season are some of the most serious disasters in Taiwan. This study is on the debris flow disasters associated with the typhoons that hit Taiwan between 1986 and 2004. Typhoon data and records of debris flow disasters available for Nantou and Hualien counties in Taiwan were analyzed. The paths and rainfall characteristics of typhoons were found to have a great effect on the debris flows at these locations. Accordingly, the typhoons were grouped into four major types based on their paths and related disasters. The relationships between rainfall intensity and accumulation and debris flow are discussed for the four major typhoon types. The information may form the basis for providing useful indicators for disaster management. 相似文献
15.
An empirical correlation between the occurrence of earthquakes and typhoons in Taiwan: a statistical multivariate approach 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Jyh-Woei Lin 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(1):605-634
This study looks at 102 typhoons that passed nearby or traversed Taiwan from 1995 to 2011 and their potential association with ordinary earthquakes. The study found an overall association of 63.75?%. Interestingly, prior to the September 21, 1999, M w ?=?7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, only 4 of 24 typhoons (16.67?%) were potentially associated with the earthquakes. This figure increased substantially after the Chi-Chi earthquake to 78 typhoons being possibly associated with earthquakes (78.21?%). From the results of the chi-square test, both correlations between the typhoons and their possible triggered earthquakes before and after Chi-Chi earthquake have significant difference. The results are discussed in terms of changes in crustal conditions after the Chi-Chi earthquake and potential mechanisms, for example, heavy rainfall and atmospheric pressure causing the ordinary earthquakes. The atmospheric pressure effect predominates over the rainfall effect during the typhoon time period by statistical multivariate approach. However, to test rainfall effect is a non-neglected mechanism; seven small earthquakes without typhoon occurring near a region experiencing heavy rainfall and earthquake activity related to accumulated rainfall values from January 1995 to July 2012 are examined. 相似文献
16.
This study applies the fuzzy multi-objective approach to forecast short-term (around 24 h) typhoon rainfall, which can be implemented without much background meteorological knowledge. The physical characteristics of 40 typhoons, including route, central pressure, central velocity and cyclonic radius, were used as the data set. The fuzzy multi-objective method mined information from the database to forecast both the depth and pattern of rainfall, which were then combined to estimate a cumulative rainfall curve. The results of calibration with reference to 40 historical typhoon events and the results of validation using another five typhoon events indicate that the proposed model has the potential to forecast short-term cumulative rainfall curves if more variables can be included and more historical typhoon events can be collected to enlarge the database. 相似文献
17.
Coar Maxwell Sarreshtehdari Amir Garlock Maria Elhami Khorasani Negar 《Natural Hazards》2021,105(1):1-19
Typhoon Lionrock, also known as the national number 1610 in Japan, caused severe flooding in east Japan in August 28–31, 2016, leaving a death toll of 22. With a maximum sustained wind speed of ~?220 km/h from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s best track, Lionrock was classified as a category 4 hurricane in Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and as a typhoon in Japan Meteorological Agency’s scale. Lionrock was among unique typhoons as it started its landfall from north of Japan. Here, we studied the characteristics of this typhoon through tide gauge data analysis, field surveys and numerical modeling. Tide gauge analysis showed that the surges generated by Lionrock were in the ranges of 15–55 cm with surge duration of 0.8–3.1 days. Our field surveys revealed that the damage to coastal communities/structures was moderate although it caused severe flooding inland. We measured a maximum coastal wave runup of 4.3 m in Iwaisaki. Such a runup was smaller than that generated by other category 4 typhoons hitting Japan in the past. Our numerical model was able to reproduce the storm surge generated by the 2016 Typhoon Lionrock. This validated numerical model can be used in the future for typhoon-hazard studies along the coast of northeastern Japan. Despite relatively small surge/wave runups in coastal areas, Lionrock’s death toll was more than that of some other category 4 typhoons. We attribute this to various primary (e.g., flooding, surges, waves, strong winds) and secondary (e.g., landslides, coastal erosions, debris flows, wind-blown debris) mechanisms and their combinations and interactions that contribute to damage/death during a typhoon event.
相似文献18.
Xiaotu Lei Xuefen Zhang Wansuo Duan Hong Li Zhiqiu Gao Chuanhai Qian Bingke Zhao Jie Tang 《地球科学进展》2019,34(7):671-678
The lack of sufficient direct observation data of typhoon fine structure is the main bottleneck that restricts the further development of typhoon discipline and forecasting. This paper briefly introduced the basic information of the National Key R&D Program of China, entitled “Experiment on Coordinated Observation of Offshore Typhoon in China”, which started in early 2019. Firstly, the importance and necessity of the program around the national needs on typhoon-related disaster reduction and prevention were explained. Then, the coordinated observation difficulties and frontiers in the current typhoon discipline situation from the development and improvement of the physical mechanism and key forecasting technologies were shown. The overview of the direct observation instrument and platform, the field campaign and the parameterization techniques related to physical process in typhoon numerical modeling was provided. Finally, the key scientific and technical issues and main research contents of the program were given. 相似文献
19.
宁镇地区是长江中下游地质灾害最严重的地区之一。镇江润州区虽然仅是宁镇地区的一个局部区域,但其气候和地质环境特征具有典型意义,所提出的地质灾害气象预警预报模型同样适用于整个宁镇地区,对长江中下游地区亦有借鉴作用。气候环境、降雨尤其是连续降雨或强降雨是诱发地质灾害的重要因素。润州区地质灾害主要与梅雨期总降雨量有关,其次与台汛期台风带来的降雨量有关,而与台汛期总降雨量无关。地质灾害预测预警方程应针对不同时期采用不同的预警模型：非梅雨期的预警方程采用预报日降雨量结合前5日降水之和的综合模型,梅雨期的预警方程采用梅雨期降雨总量模型。提出地质灾害气象预报预警等级应根据《国家突发公共事件总体应急预案》将等级统一划分为4级。该模型可作为完善我国现有地质灾害气象预警预报系统的参考。 相似文献