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收集数字化观测以来山西及邻区地磁台站数据,利用地磁低点位移法、地磁加卸载响应比法和地磁日变幅逐日比法等多种地磁分析方法,分析了山西及邻区4次中强地震前地磁异常特征。研究发现,这些异常类型与该区域中强地震间存在一定相关性,地震多发生在异常预测线集中交汇区域,这缩小了地震预测范围;异常数量的增加提高了单一方法的可信度,预示着发震概率的增高。通过对震前各种异常类型的分析,认为地磁异常综合特征对山西及邻区中强地震的短临预测有一定参考价值。 相似文献
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利用地磁低点位移预测发震时间 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
四川及邻区是未来大震的重点监测地区，为了震情监视分析与预测，对四川地区出现的地磁“低点位移”与四川及邻区的中强地震对应进行了系统研究，认为地磁“低点位移”现象是客观存在的，“低点位移”作为一种地磁异常现象，与地震发生有较好的相关性。 相似文献
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2019年甘肃张掖5.0级、夏河5.7级地震前中国大陆均有明显的“地磁低点位移”现象出现,2次地震震中均位于低点位移线出现明显转折的区域。通过对2次低点位移异常日中国大陆地磁台站低点时间进行梯度法分析,研究了2次中强地震震中位置与低点时间高梯度带分布间的关系。研究结果表明：①在2次低点位移异常日都同步出现了地磁垂直分量低点时间高梯度带分布;②2次中强地震震中位置均位于低点位移线出现明显转折处和低点时间高梯度带1.0 h/（°）等值线附近;③利用低点时间梯度法对低点位移异常进行分析有利于改进原有异常识别方法,较少虚报率。 相似文献
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青藏高原北部地区中强震前地磁低点位移特征研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
分析了1994年以来青藏高原北部地区中强震前地磁低点位移的分布特征后,发现在该区中强震前均出现地磁低点位移异常。表明根据地磁低点位移异常对地震三要素（时间、地点和震级）的短临预报有一定的指导作用。 相似文献
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2019年甘肃张掖5.0级、夏河5.7级地震前中国大陆均有明显的"地磁低点位移"现象出现,2次地震震中均位于低点位移线出现明显转折的区域.通过对2次低点位移异常日中国大陆地磁台站低点时间进行梯度法分析,研究了2次中强地震震中位置与低点时间高梯度带分布间的关系.研究结果表明:①在2次低点位移异常日都同步出现了地磁垂直分量... 相似文献
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通过对祁连山中东段及共和盆地近几年来发生的５级以上地震前地磁异常特征及其时空分布特征分析,研究了中国西北地区强震的地磁短期异常特征和预报指标．结果表明,磁暴、低点位移和地磁垂直分量的相关性在强震前均出现了不同程度的异常．发震时间距低点位移异常开始的时间在１个月内,距磁暴出现的时间为倍九日期的±３天内．发震地点一般位于低点位移异常形成的分界线附近或低点位移异常所围绕的某个区域内．若相关系数异常持续５个月以上,在异常区内有发生中强地震的可能 相似文献
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首先对兰州地磁台的基本情况进行了简要叙述，利用该台1974年1月-2002年7月的地磁Z日变化“低点位移”观测结果。对甘肃及邻区在相同时段内发生的Ms≥5.0以上的地震进行统计分析，探讨其震磁关系，以及映震效果在空间上的分布特征。为地震的短临预报提供一定的参考依据。 相似文献
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M. N. French R. L. Bras W. F. Krajewski 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1992,6(1):27-45
A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities. 相似文献
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《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2014,(4)
正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and 相似文献
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O. Martins 《水文研究》1988,2(1):19-29
Water quality analyses for the Niger River for the 1980/81 hydrological year are presented. The samples were collected from the main river at Lokoja, and from two main tributaries, the Kaduna and the Benue Rivers. Different water types were distinguished by the concentrations of major ions. The type Ca > Na > Mg > K - HCO3 > SO4 > Cl was represented at all stations during at least part of the year. Chloride was found to dominate the sulphate ion in the Kaduna and Niger, while the Benue maintained a higher concentration of sulphate relative to chloride all year round. Distinct patterns of seasonal variation in the ion concentrations were observed, particularly for the samples collected at Lokoja. Low ion concentrations were prominent during periods of high discharge, while low flow periods coincided with high dissolved ion concentrations. The contribution of rainwater to the total dissolved solids in the river waters was assessed indirectly using rainwater chemistry data from the Gulf of Guinea. The estimated rainwater contribution to the Lower Niger amounts to 5.15 mg 1?1. Geochemical weathering calculations involving reactions of the four major minerals of granitic rocks - anorthite, biotite, albite, and K-feldspar - with carbon dioxide and water, can account for the average water composition of the Lower Niger. The proportion of the ionic components was also related to the occurrence of the respective element in the minerals. 相似文献
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Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong. 相似文献
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Depositional ages and characteristics of Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in southeastern Mongolia 
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下载免费PDF全文 Hitoshi Hasegawa Hisao Ando Noriko Hasebe Niiden Ichinnorov Tohru Ohta Takashi Hasegawa Masanobu Yamamoto Gang Li Bat‐Orshikh Erdenetsogt Ulrich Heimhofer Takayuki Murata Hironori Shinya G. Enerel G. Oyunjargal O. Munkhtsetseg Noriyuki Suzuki Tomohisa Irino Koshi Yamamoto 《Island Arc》2018,27(3)
Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales are widely distributed in southeastern Mongolia. Due to the high organic carbon content of oil shale, many geochemical studies and petroleum exploration have been conducted. Although most of the oil shales are considered to be Early Cretaceous in age, a recent study reveals that some were deposited in the Middle Jurassic. The present study aims at establishing depositional ages and characteristics of the Jurassic and Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in Mongolia. The Lower Cretaceous Shinekhudag Formation is about 250 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale and dolomite. The Middle Jurassic Eedemt Formation is about 150 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale, dolomitic marl, and siltstone. The alternations of shale and dolomite in both formations were formed by lake level changes, reflecting precipitation changes. Shales were deposited in the center of a deep lake during highstand, while dolomites were formed by primary precipitation during lowstand. Based on the radiometric age dating, the Shinekhudag Formation was deposited between 123.8 ±2.0 Ma and 118.5 ±0.9 Ma of the early Aptian. The Eedemt Formation was deposited at around 165–158 Ma of Callovian–Oxfordian. The calculated sedimentation rate of the Shinekhudag Formation is between 4.7 ±2.6 cm/ky and 10.0 ±7.6 cm/ky. Shales in the Shinekhudag Formation show micrometer‐scale lamination, consisting of algal organic matter and detrital clay mineral couplets. Given the average thickness of micro‐laminae and calculated sedimentation rate, the micro‐lamination is most likely of varve origin. Both Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales were deposited in intracontinental basins in the paleo‐Asian continent. Tectonic processes and basin evolution basically controlled the deposition of these oil shales. In addition, enhanced precipitation under humid climate during the early Aptian and the Callovian–Oxfordian was another key factor inducing the widespread oil shale deposition in Mongolia. 相似文献
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A. C. LIAKOPOULOS Dr. Eng. 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):69-110
ABSTRACT The one-dimensional transient downward entry of water in unsaturated soils is investigated theoretically. The mathematical equation describing the infiltration process is derived by combining Darcy's dynamic equation of motion with the continuity and thermodynamic state equations adjusted for the unsaturated flow conditions. The resulting equation together with the corresponding initial and boundary conditions constitues a mathematical initial boundary value problem requiring the solution of a nonlinear partial differential equation of the parabolic type. The volumetric water content is taken as the dependent variable and the time and the position along the vertical direction are taken as the independent variables. The governing equation is of such nature that a solution exists for t > 0 and is uniquely determined if two relationships are defined, together with the specified state of the system, at the initial time t = 0 and at the two boundaries. The two required relations are those of pressure versus permeability and pressure versus volumetric water content. Since the partial differential equation has strong non-linear terms, a discrete solution is obtained by approximating the derivatives with finite-differences at discrete mesh points in the solution domain and integrated for the corresponding initial and boundary conditions. The use of an implicit difference scheme is employed in order to generate a system of simultaneous non-linear equations that has to be solved for each time increment. For n mesh points the two boundary conditions provide two equations and the repetition of the recurrence formula provides n—2 equations, the total being n equations for each time increment. The solution of the system is obtained by matrix inversion and particularly with a back-substitution technique. The FORTRAN statements used for obtaining the solution with an electronic digital computer (IBM 704) are presented together with the input data. Analysis of the errors involved in the numerical solution is made and the stability and convergence of the solution of the approximate difference equation to that of the differential equation is investigated. The method applied is that of making a Fourier series expansion of a whole line of errors and then following the progress of the general term of the series expansion and also the behavior of each constituent harmonic. The errors (forming a continuous function of points in an abstract Banach space) are represented by vectors with the Fourier coefficients constituting a second Banach space. The amplification factor of the difference equation is shown to be always less than unity which guarantees the stability of the employed implicit recurrence scheme. Experiments conducted on a vertical column packed uniformly with very fine sand, show a satisfactory agreement between the theoretically and experimentally obtained values. Many experimental results are shown in an attempt to explain the infiltration phenomenon with emphasis on the shape and movement of the wet front, and the effects of the degree of compaction, initial water content and deaired water on the infiltration rate. 相似文献
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Church repair swarms and earthquakes in Rhodes Island, Greece 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
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GHODRAT TORABI 《Island Arc》2012,21(3):215-229
Late Permian trondhjemites in the Anarak area occur as stocks and dykes, which cross cut the Anarak ophiolite and its overlying metasedimentary rocks, and are exposed along the northern Anarak east–west main faults. These leucocratic intrusive bodies have enclaves of all ophiolitic units and metamorphic rocks. They are composed of amphibole, plagioclase (oligoclase), quartz, zircon and muscovite. Secondary minerals are chlorite (pycnochlorite), epidote, albite, magnetite and calcite. Whole‐rock major‐ and trace‐element analyses reveal that they are characterized by high SiO 2 (67.8–71.0 wt%), Al 2 O 3 (14.9–17.1 wt%) and Na 2 O (5.3–8.6 wt%), low K 2 O (0.1–1.5 wt%; average: 0.8 wt%), low Rb/Sr ratio (0.01–0.40; average: 0.09), low Y (3–6 ppm), negative Ti, Nb and Ta anomalies, slightly negative or positive Eu anomaly, LREE enrichment and fractionated HREE. These rocks present 2 to 40 times enrichment in inclined chondrite‐normalized REE patterns. Geochemical characteristics of the Anarak trondhjemites all reflect melting of a mafic protolith at more than 10 kbar. The field evidence and whole‐rock chemistry reveal that these rocks have been crystallized from magmas derived from melting of subducted Anarak oceanic crust. This study reveals that melting of garnet amphibolite was an important element of continent formation in the study area. 相似文献