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1.
台风暴雨型泥石流分布广泛并常造成重大灾害,有必要对其危险度进行研究。选取温州山区的14处典型台风暴雨型泥石流为研究对象,构建了基于组合因子的单沟泥石流危险度评价模型。选取泥石流规模（M）、泥石流频率（F）、冲沟纵比降（J）、形成区完整系数（C）、台风降雨综合值（E）和地质综合因子（G）来表征泥石流危险程度,并基于信息熵理论获得各组合因子权重值。针对研究区均为低频泥石流的特点,引入麦尔登比率（R值）以间接确定基于不同R值范围的泥石流爆发频率（F）。将评价模型应用于所选的典型沟谷,得到各沟谷泥石流危险度,评价结果符合研究区泥石流沟谷为中、小型低频泥石流的实际情况,并且评价为危险度高的沟谷具备区域上最易形成泥石流的地质地貌条件。 相似文献
2.
基于模糊层次分析法的泥石流危险度评价 总被引：9，自引：2，他引：7
泥石流危险度评价的准确性不仅是影响未来灾害学整体综合评价的要素之一,也是社会经济发展的要求之一。本文对甘肃省莲麓水电站评估区内8条泥石流沟,采用模糊层次分析法建立了泥石流危险度评价模型,从分析形成泥石流的物质、地形地貌、气候、土地使用情况和地质构造等方面,选取12个评价因子,定量的进行泥石流危险度评价。评价结果与实际吻合,表明模糊层次分析法用于泥石流沟危险度评价是科学可行的。 相似文献
3.
层次分析法在单沟泥石流危险度评价中的应用 总被引：28，自引：0，他引：28
单沟泥石流危险度评价是泥石流危险性评价中的重要内容,对实现山区的安全减灾有着重要意义。文章从系统理论出发,运用层次分析法(AHP)对影响泥石流沟谷危险度的相关因子进行分析,构建单沟泥石流危险度评价的层次指标系统,并对各参与评价因子的权重作了计算,建立起单沟泥石流危险度评价模型。通过对泥石流沟的实例验证,评价结果与实际情况有较好的一致性。该方法将定量与定性相结合,能很好地解决泥石流危险度综合评价问题,对提高泥石流危险度评价的可靠性、准确性及客观性有一定的实践意义。 相似文献
4.
泥石流危险度的划分是泥石流研究中的重点与难点,泥石流危险度的确定对于泥石流整体特征的把握具有十分重要的作用。采用熵值-理想点法建立了泥石流危险度划分模型,选取流域面积、主沟长度与泥石流沟相对最大高差等10个评价指标。利用现场3条泥石流沟作为工程评价对象,通过熵值法确定各评价指标的权重系数,并采用理想点法进行泥石流危险度的划分研究。根据模型分析结果,泥石流沟2与3属于高危险度(贴近度为0.79与0.83),泥石流沟1属于中危险度(贴近度为0.82)。泥石流危险度与现场情况及已有研究资料基本一致,证明了该法在泥石流危险度划分中的合理性与有效性。 相似文献
5.
泥石流危险度评价是泥石流研究的热点和难点问题。运用极大不相关法剔除泥石流危险度评价中提供信息重叠过多的因子,并应用主观赋权的序关系分析法（G1法）对客观赋权的拉开档次法进行改进,从而获得了一种新的泥石流危险度评价方法。以吉林省和龙市地质灾害调查与区划中的10条泥石流危险度评价实例进行验证并与传统方法对比,结果表明：该方法操作简便,其中4条处于分级点附近的泥石流危险度比传统方法高出一个等级,改进型拉开档次法能体现出传统评价方法中同级别泥石流危险度的差异性,评价结果与实际情况吻合得更好。结论虽然偏于安全,但能为有针对地开展泥石流灾害防治工作提供更科学的指导,可为泥石流危险度评价提供一种新的评价方法。 相似文献
6.
7.
【研究目的】泥石流灾害是白龙江流域分布广泛并常引起群死群伤的重大地质灾害,准确评价泥石流活动规模及其危险度,是泥石流危险性预警预报的前提,合理构建危险性预报模型是泥石流防灾减灾的关键。【研究方法】本文以研究区历史泥石流案例和对应降雨资料为基础数据,采用统计分析方法,通过分析形成泥石流关键地质环境条件及其相互关系,构建了白龙江流域潜在泥石流危险度定量评价模型,提出了两类泥石流危险级别临界判别模式。【研究结果】结果表明：（1）以泥石流活动规模、沟床平均比降、流域切割密度、不稳定沟床比例为判断因子的泥石流危险度动态定量计算模型,能快速准确预测未来不同工程情景和降雨频率工况下泥石流危险度;（2）影响降雨型泥石流发生的地形条件由流域面积、10°~40°斜坡坡度面积比、沟床平均纵比降等组成,降雨条件主要由泥石流爆发前的24 h累积降雨量、触发泥石流1 h降雨量或10 min降雨量等组成;（3）依据30条典型泥石流沟危险度计算结果,获得泥石流危险性临界判别值,提出了降雨型潜在泥石流危险性1 h预报模型（Ⅰ类）和10 min预报模型（Ⅱ类）,其中Ⅰ类模型高危险度以上泥石流预测精度大于87.5%,Ⅱ类模型中等危险度以上泥石流预测精度大于80%,而两类预报模型验证准确率为83.3%。【结论】研究成果为泥石流精准预警预报提供了技术支撑,对建立中小尺度泥石流实时化预警系统具有一定参考意义。创新点：通过确定与泥石流相对应关键地质环境因子,构建了泥石流危险度动态定量评价模型,依据泥石流危险性1 h和10 min临界判别模式可准确实现潜在泥石流预警预报。 相似文献
8.
泥石流是昆明东川城区最主要的地质灾害之一,严重阻碍了城市的社会经济发展。开展东川城区泥石流危险度评价对城市安全与稳定有着重要的意义。文章从地貌学侵蚀旋回理论出发,运用斯特拉勒面积-高程分析法对东川城区后山的3条泥石流沟的危险度进行评价研究。结果表明,深沟和石羊沟的斯特拉勒面积-高程值分别为0.580和0.520,泥石流沟谷正由发育的中年末期向老年期演化,泥石流危险度较低;尼拉姑沟的斯特拉勒面积-高程值为0.452,处于沟谷发育的旺盛时期,泥石流危险度较高,计算结果与当地实际情况有较好的一致性。 相似文献
9.
泥石流危险性评价是灾情预测、防灾救灾决策中的重要内容,是国内外灾害科学研究的热点之一。本文以新疆开都河霍尔古吐水电站坝址区群沟泥石流为研究对象,在对泥石流区域地质环境研究的基础上,选取泥石流规模、爆发频率等8个因素作为评价因子,采用灰色关联度确定评价因子权重,运用可拓理论,通过定性和类比的方法对群发泥石流区域进行危险性评价。将评价结果与刘希林提出的单沟泥石流评价结果比较,清水沟与雪莲沟的可拓法评价危险度等级要高于单沟泥石流评价结果,这一结果和现场调查情况相吻合。因此,基于灰色关联度法的可拓理论对霍尔古吐水电站坝址区群发泥石流危险度评价结果合理可靠,进而为坝区泥石流危险性评估、规划防治提供合理的科学依据。 相似文献
10.
基于证据权法的泥石流危险度区划 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
针对泥石流危险度区划方法存在不足的问题,根据泥石流形成的要素提取危险度评价因子,运用证据权法客观地筛选出评价因子和确定危险度的权重,进而优选出具有代表性的评价因子,避免了主观赋权和筛选因子的随意性;根据不同评价因子权重值的叠加来确定某一单元泥石流危险度发育程度的概率。以吉林省磐石市泥石流危险度区划为例进行验证,结果表明：中度和低度危险区内有泥石流点163个,囊括了75.81%的泥石流灾害点,符合磐石市泥石流危险度总体不高、局部地区危险度较大的实际情况。 相似文献
11.
On 4 July 2013, three catastrophic debris flows occurred in the Hougou, Majingzi, and Xiongjia gullies in Shimian county and produced debris dams and river blockages, resulting in serious casualties and huge economic loss. Though debris flows have been identified prior to the catastrophic events, their magnitudes and destructive power were far beyond early recognition and hazard assessment. Our primary objective for this study was to explore the formation mechanism and typical characteristics and to summarize the lessons learned from these disastrous events in order to avoid the repeat of such disasters in the future. Based on field investigation and imagery interpretation of remote sensing carried out following the catastrophic events, four conclusions were drawn: (1) The catastrophic debris flows were initiated from surface-water runoff, and the triggering factor was attributed to the local intensive rainfall with an hourly intensity of more than 46.7 mm. (2) Entrainment was the most important sediment-supplying method for the debris flow occurrence, and the source materials transported by debris flows from the three gullies were estimated to be about 97?×?104 m3 in volume altogether. (3) As surface-water runoff eroded and entrained hillslope and channel materials persistently, debris flows were characterized by intensive incision at upper or middle reaches and significant magnification effect in flow discharge and volume downstream. Corresponding peak discharge surveyed at the outlets of the Hougou, Majingzi, and Xiongjia gullies was estimated up to 751.0 m3/s, 870.1 m3/s, and 758.7 m3/s, respectively. (4) Debris flows that occurred from the three gullies all belonged to viscous ones and the bulk densities were calculated more than 1.80 g/cm3, indicating a huge carrying capacity and destructive impacting power. In addition, the lessons learned from the catastrophic events were summarized, including recognition and assessment on debris flow hazard and utilization of deposition fan. In this paper, prevention suggestions on debris flow prone valleys with high-vegetation coverage and low occurrence frequency were also put forward. The results of this study contribute to a better understanding on the initiation mechanism, dynamic characteristics, and disaster mitigation of debris flows initiated from intense rainfall and surface-water runoff in mountainous areas. 相似文献
12.
在缺失可靠降雨数据的地区,为解决泥石流暴发频率这一现实问题,从泥石流形成机理出发,由泥石流堆积特征反演形成条件,构建了基于数值模拟的泥石流暴发频率计算模型。该模型利用泥石流固体物质量估算模型和流域洪水流量推算模型,确定固体物质量、洪水流量、泥沙体积浓度后,通过FLO-2D流体模型计算得到与实际情况最符合的模拟情景,即可反推出已发泥石流事件的暴发频率。并以7 4石棉县马颈子沟和熊家沟泥石流为例,计算出两处泥石流的暴发频率皆为100年一遇,案例研究表明,该模型具备定量确定泥石流暴发频率的能力,对于泥石流预警预报和防灾减灾具有较强的理论和实践意义。 相似文献
13.
Catastrophic debris flows triggered by a 14 August 2010 rainfall at the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
The Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008 produced large amounts of loose material (landslide debris) that are still present
on the steep slopes and in the gullies. This loose material creates an important hazard as strong rainfall can cause the development
of devastating debris flows that will endanger the resettled population and destroy the result of reconstruction efforts.
On 14 August 2010, a total of 21 debris flows were triggered by heavy rainfall around the town of Yingxue, located near the
epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake. One of these debris flows produced a debris dam, which then changed the course of the
river and resulted in the flooding of the newly reconstructed Yinxue town. Prior to this catastrophic event, debris flow hazard
had been recognized in the region, but its potential for such widespread and devastating impacts was not fully appreciated.
Our primary objective for this study was to analyze the characteristics of the triggering rainfall and the sediment supply
conditions leading to this event. Our field observations show that even small debris flow catchment areas have caused widespread
sediment deposition on the existing fans. It is concluded that the whole of the area shaken by the Wenchuan earthquake is
more susceptible to debris flows, initiated by localized heavy rainfall, than had been assumed earlier. The results of this
study contribute to a better understanding of the conditions leading to catastrophic debris flow events in the earthquake-hit
area. This is essential for the implementation of proper early warning, prevention, and mitigation measures as well as a better
land use planning in this area. 相似文献
14.
低频泥石流特征及其预测初步探讨 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
同高频泥石流相比,低频泥石流更具有潜在危害性。近年来,低频泥石流的暴发给我国山区人们的生命财产安全、经济发展和社会进步以及山区生态环境带来了极大的影响。本文通过对低频泥石流沟实地考察以及对近年来我国暴发的约30例典型低频泥石流资料进行搜集整理,从其隐蔽性、活动性、规模和破坏性以及灾情等方面探讨了低频泥石流的特征;以茶园沟为例,采用灰色灾变预测方法,建立灰色灾变预测模型对其进行预测,经检验预测结果与实际发生年份一致,并且预测出2042年或2043年前后以及2095年或2096年前后茶园沟发生大规模泥石流的可能性较大;最后,针对低频泥石流的特征,提出了相应的防治建议。 相似文献
15.
泥石流的二维数学模型 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
泥石流是在重力作用下,由砂粒石块和水等组成的固液混合物,是一种发生于山区的复杂的地质灾害现象。泥石流主要是由暴雨诱发引起的,它沿着复杂的三维地形高速流动,具有流体流动的特性。为了模拟泥石流的运动规律,预测降雨诱发的泥石流的到达距离和泛滥范围,减少和避免泥石流引起的灾害,把泥石和雨水组成的固液混合物假定为遵循均匀、连续、不可压缩的、非定常的牛顿流体运动规律。基于质量守恒方程和Naiver-stokes方程,采用深度积分方法,推导出了一个模拟泥石流运动的二维数学模型。所有方程式可用有限差分法来求解。结合GIS,该模型可用于预测泥石流的流动距离和泛滥范围,以及泛滥范围内的危险房屋和路段,也可以用于泥石流灾害的风险性分析。 相似文献
16.
The Wenchuan earthquake induced large amounts of debris flows and catastrophic incidents triggered by subsequent rainstorms occurred frequently in the past 6 rainy seasons, and thus resulted in serious casualties, huge economic loss and long-term impact. In this paper, post-seismic debris flows distributed in 10 Wenchuan earthquake extremely stricken counties were verified and debris flow database consisting of 609 debris flows was established based on detailed investigation organized by Land and Resources Department of Sichuan Province. Combined with database and related studies, the impact of Wenchuan earthquake on debris flows was analyzed. And then variation of formation conditions including rainfall threshold and landform condition was analyzed by contrasting pre-seismic and post-seismic debris flows. Followed are some typical viewpoints on initiation mechanism of post-seismic debris flows. In the end of this paper, characteristics of postseismic debris flows triggered by subsequent rainstorms were comprehensively summarized, such as regional group occurrence, high frequency, high viscosity, chain effect, huge dynamics, large scale and long duration. We hope this paper will be helpful in understanding the formation mechanism, disaster characteristics and prevention countermeasures of post-seismic debris flows in Wenchuan earthquake extremely stricken areas. 相似文献
17.
N. I. Akulov V. V. Akulova S. I. Shtel’makh M. N. Rubtsova P. A. Sholokhov 《Lithology and Mineral Resources》2018,53(1):36-52
Based on the catastrophic June 28, 2014, Arshan debris flows in the Eastern Sayan Mountains, the structure and lithological composition of the debris are studied and a debris flow defense system is proposed. Among five debris flows in this region, two flows 4.1 and 5.6 km long are scrutinized. The grain size and mineral composition of fans and mudflows, as well as their evolution scenario are studied. The paper also examines the engineering-geological features of debris flow sediments and their textural-structural and physical alterations in the course of settling. Specific attention is devoted to the lithological and climatic constraints of debris flows. It is noted that sediments of recent mudflows are characterized by a high underconsolidation and deliquescence, promoting the formation of high-plastic and fluidal zones that can migrate actively. The approach proposed for debris flow defense measures lies in the construction of flow diversion dams designed for orienting the debris flows toward the “debris dump site.” 相似文献
18.
Empirical modelling of the May 1998 small debris flows in Sarno (Italy) using LAHARZ 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
D. Oramas Dorta G. Toyos C. Oppenheimer M. T. Pareschi R. Sulpizio G. Zanchetta 《Natural Hazards》2007,40(2):381-396
The catastrophic events that occurred in May 1998 in the area of Sarno (Southern Italy) highlight the destructive potential
of debris flows, even when they are of relatively low magnitude. More than 130 people were killed and severe property damage
took place when volcaniclastic debris flows triggered by heavy rainfall inundated various towns located in piedmont areas.
This work investigates the suitability of LAHARZ, a GIS-assisted method for the automatic delineation of lahar inundation
areas, for reproducing the May 1998 flows at Sarno. It was found that recalibration of the empirical relationship employed
by LAHARZ is required in order to realistically hind-cast the inundation areas of considered events. The potential for further
improvements in prediction outputs for this type of geomorphic setting is discussed, taking into account the observed lower
mobility of these small volcaniclastic debris flows as compared to lahars of similar size. 相似文献
19.
地貌学和沉积学证据表明,山东蒙山地质灾害遗迹分布广泛,通常以砾石堆积堤及河谷堆积阶地的形式保留在现代河床之上。其中,峨峪口砾石堤在蒙山具有典型性和代表性。探明峨峪口砾石堤的成因类型和发生历史,对中国东部（105° E以东）第四纪环境变化、气候地貌过程具有重要的科学研究和科普教育价值。2020年10月和2021年2月,笔者团队两次赴蒙山考察,野外工作主要是砾石组构测量,寻找砾石埋压的断木等有机14C测年材料,以及历史洪水调查、地方文献资料收集等。研究结果表明：（1）峨峪口砾石堤不连续、不对称分布于凹岸（弯道）,砾石组构、石线构造、叠置空洞构造和砾石群构造等成因专属性特征,以及砾石表面擦痕的明度,揭示其可能为数百年前所形成的一次性历史泥石流堆积垄岗,且被后期山洪改造过;（2）年代学和遥感资料显示,1991年夏季峨峪口等地曾暴发大型山洪泥石流,这一结果与蒙山泥石流的历史记载具有一致性,从证据链上进一步增强了峨峪口砾石堤泥石流成因的确然性;（3）峨峪口砾石堤可能是低频、短历时快速地貌灾害过程,属于暴雨直接类特大型历史泥石流堆积,其物源主要是峨峪口上游谷地的重力崩积物;（4）峨峪口砾石堤缺少冰缘现象的地貌组合证据,不存在全新世早期冰缘地貌的年代学依据,当地不具备发育全新世早期“石河”和“冻土环境”的气候条件;（5）蒙山地区分布有丰富的碎屑物质和比较陡的沟谷纵剖面,暴雨频繁、水分充足,具有泥石流暴发的形成条件,周边居民点、公路和登山步道应加强山洪泥石流地质灾害防治工作。 相似文献
20.
川藏铁路某车站位于藏东南冻错曲沟谷内,处于泥石流集中暴发区。采用现场调查、遥感解译等方法对影响车站的泥石流群孕灾环境和发育特征进行了深入研究。结果表明:该区以发育包括10条暴雨型泥石流与2条冰湖溃决泥石流在内的泥石流群为特征,地形地貌、水源动力和物源对泥石流群的发育起主要控制性作用。泥石流沟的流域形态完整系数集中在0.15～0.55之间,多为长条形与栎叶形,沟床的纵比降整体偏大,有利于泥石流的水源汇聚和发生。而泥石流流域内的沟道岸坡坡度多为20°～40°,相对有利于泥石流物源的补给。对该泥石流群中的12条泥石流沟进行动力学参数计算,分析其运动特征和发展趋势,认为该泥石流群的堆积扇普遍比较明显且未修建防治工程,在极端暴雨条件下,再次暴发较大规模泥石流的可能性大。最后评价了单沟暴发及冻错曲两岸对冲暴发场景下泥石流群对线路的潜在工程影响并给出了防治对策,建议线路在穿越泥石流沟部位布设排导槽或停淤堤进行束流归流,并对桥墩做好迎水面防块石撞击措施。研究结果对川藏铁路泥石流防治工程规划设计具有一定指导意义,也可为山区交通干线的合理选线提供科学依据。 相似文献