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1.
Outgoing long wave radiation variability from IR satellite data prior to major earthquakes 总被引：12，自引：1，他引：12
Dimitar Ouzounov Defu Liu Kang Chunli Guido Cervone Menas Kafatos Patrick Taylor 《Tectonophysics》2007,431(1-4):211
Our analysis of the continuous outgoing long wave earth radiation (OLR) indicates anomalous variations prior to a number of medium to large earthquakes. The most recent analysis of OLR is from the M9.0 Sumatra Andaman Islands mega trust event. We compared the reference fields for December 2001 to 2004 and found OLR anomalous values, > 80 W/m2, (2σ) within the epicentral area on Dec 21, 2004, 5 days before the event. We used the NOAA/IR daily (one degree) and monthly (two and half degree) gridded data to differentiate between the global and seasonal variability and the transient local anomalies. The cause of such anomalies is not fully understood; one possible explanation is the existence of thermal outgoing radiation as a result of near ground air ionization and latent heat change due to change of air humidity and temperature. This phenomenon is hypothesized to be part of a relationship between tectonic stresses, electrochemical and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere and increasing mid IR flux, all part of a family of electromagnetic (EM) phenomena related to earthquake activity. The time scale of the observed variations is a few weeks before the onset of the seismic event. In comparison with several years of data, the observed time-series preceding the earthquake had unusually high OLR. The OLR anomaly corresponds to a large area of ground coverage and coincides with the main epicentral zone. The significance of these observations is explored using data from most recent East Asian earthquake swarm of December 2004 and three other earthquakes. 相似文献
2.
F. De Cicco M. Pugliese M. Quarto V. Roca C. Sabbarese F. Savino I. Aquino W. De Cesare 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(8):317
Radon is considered one of the short- and immediate-term earthquake precursors by International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior. For this reason, the accurate and reliable measurement of its specific activity in soil gas is mandatory. Since its presence is influenced by many environmental factors, in order to eliminate this influence on the radon activity measurement a multi-parametric and multi-site analysis is necessary. Following this approach, a continuous radon monitoring was carried out in two sites of the Phlegrean Fields caldera (Campania, Italy) using the RaMonA system, which also allows for the measurement of temperature, relative humidity and pressure. In particular, the dependence of measured radon specific activity on the meteorological conditions was studied using the multiple linear regression method. The analysis was implemented also by testing data averages on different timescales. In this paper, the results of a preliminary analysis performed on data collected throughout 2012 are presented; the outcomes obtained allow to emphasize site-specific behavior and to discriminate apparent radon “anomalies” of climatic origin from those tied to the phenomena occurring in the earth’s crust. The method employed showed its usefulness by removing the effects of meteorological conditions and thus to better identify the possible radon anomalies caused by seismo-volcanic activity. The peculiarities of the different sites and some correlations with earthquakes are discussed. 相似文献
3.
Summary The severity of damage to Mexico City as a result of the 19 September 1985 Michoacan earthquake was unusual given the city's distance (350 km) from the zone of seismic energy release. To explain the damage many authors have suggested that unusual source or transmission path characteristics contributed to enhanced ground motion in Mexico City. The purpose of this paper is to present a summary of results obtained from data recorded during the earthquake related to possible anomalous source characteristics.It is concluded that although the Michoacan earthquake was a large earthquake indeed, in terms of energy output, spectral content, geometry and source mechanics it was not remarkable or anomalous relative to other subduction zone earthquakes in Mexico or elsewhere. In fact the future may well see a larger earthquake generated along the Guerrero seismic gap which is significantly closer to Mexico City. 相似文献
4.
Groundwater radon anomalies associated with earthquakes 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
Earthquake-related changes in groundwater radon have been detected at a sensitive observation site located right on a major active fault in Northeast Japan. A time-series analysis based on Bayesian statistics was successfully applied to remove background variations from the observed radon data, enabling us to examine the earthquake-related changes in detail.
We set a simple criterion of amplitude and duration for an anomaly observed in our radon data; we define an anomaly as a radon change that kept its level beyond 2σ (a standard deviation over the whole observation period) during a period longer than one day. We have observed 20 radon anomalies that satisfied this criterion from January 1984 to December 1988. Most of these anomalies have turned out to be related to large earthquakes that occurred in East Japan and its surrounding area; we have identified 12 post-seismic and 2-pre-seismic radon anomalies out of a total of 30 earthquakes with magnitude M 6.0 and hypocentral distance D 1000 km.
The typical pattern of the post-seismic anomalies is a radon decrease which started just after an earthquake, lasting for periods ranging from a few days to more than one week. The amplitude of the post-seismic anomalies depends on both magnitude and hypocentral distance, and can, in general, be expressed by a simple magnitude-distance relationships.
A possible pre-seismic anomaly was observed about one week before the largest earthquake that occurred in this region during the observation period (March 6, 1984; M = 7.9, D = 1000 km). Another possible pre-seismic anomaly was observed about three days before two nearby large earthquakes that occurred at almost the same place in a time interval of 53 min (February 6, 1987; M = 6.4 and M = 6.7, D = 130 km). 相似文献
5.
Falk H. Weinlich Eckhard Faber Alena Bou&#x;kov Josef Horlek Manfred Teschner Jürgen Poggenburg 《Tectonophysics》2006,421(1-2):89-110
A continuously operated gas monitoring station was emplaced within the epicentral area of the NW Bohemian swarm earthquakes overlying directly the active Mariánské Lázně fault. The recordings of 8-month continuous monitoring period are presented. The variations in radon concentrations are similarly to variations in CO2, i.e. CO2 is considered to be the carrier gas for radon. Very small diurnal variations in gas concentration are caused by the earth tides, as daily variations in meteorological conditions cannot explain a short daily minimum at midday times. Sudden changes in gas concentration, which clearly exceed these diurnal variations occur and are always linked with seismic activities. Decreased gas concentration may indicate compression resulting in reduced fault permeability as is implied by negative peaks following local earthquake swarms. A sudden increase in CO2 and Rn concentration may indicate an increased fault permeability caused by stress redistribution, giving rise to opening of migration pathways. This implies a repeatedly sudden rise in gas concentration before local earthquake swarms. Several variations in gas concentration were monitored linked with remote earthquakes of ground motion amplitudes >1 μm. These seismic events are accompanied by an interference of the diurnal gas concentration–stress-cycle along the Mariánské Lázně fault. However, if shocks of remote earthquake can alter properties of the migrating fluids or the fault properties it can be suggested that these are able to trigger local seismicity, as indicated in the case of the Slovenia earthquake on 12th July 2004. 相似文献
6.
Charles E. Glass 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》1989,7(1):9-15
Summary The severity of damage to Mexico City as a result of the 19 September 1985 Michoacan earthquake was unusual given the City's distance (350 km) from the zone of seismic energy release. To explain the damage many authors have suggested that unusual source or transmission path characteristics contributed to enhanced ground motion in Mexico City. The purpose of this paper is to present a summary of results obtained from data recorded during the earthquake related to possible anomalous transmission path characteristics.It is concluded that in every respect this earthquake conformed to the norms set by previous subduction zone earthquakes within the Middle American trench. It appears likely that conditions within the Valley of Mexico are adequate to explain the unusually severe ground shaking without invoking unusual source or transmission characteristics. 相似文献
7.
8.
Continuous soil-gas radon and thoron measurements were carried out at 15 days interval along Mat fault in Mizoram (India), which lies in the seismic zone V of the seismic zonation map of India. The study was carried out from March 2012 to February 2013 using LR-115 Type II detectors, manufactured by Kodak Pathe, France. The effect of meteorological parameters on radon and thoron data was taken into consideration. The annual average value of radon and thoron concentration was found to be 621.21 and 590.18 Bq/m3 with a standard deviation of 377.60 and 301.34 Bq/m3, respectively. Inverse correlation coefficient was obtained between radon/thoron concentration and the meteorological parameters except in one case (thoron and relative humidity) which showed a weak positive correlation. Standard deviation method was employed in order to differentiate those anomalies which are solely caused by seismic events and not by meteorological parameters. The data obtained have been correlated with the seismic activities that occurred around the measuring site. Positive correlations were found between radon/thoron data and the earthquakes. 相似文献
9.
Fu-qiong Huang Chun-lin Jian Yi Tang Gui-ming Xu Zhi-hui Deng Gong-cai Chi 《Tectonophysics》2004,390(1-4):217-234
About 60 hydrologic changes in response to the Chi-Chi earthquake with Ms7.6 on September 21, 1999, occurred in 52 wells, including groundwater level, temperature, discharge rate, well pressure and radon, etc., in the subsurface fluid monitoring network. These response changes were mainly co-seismic, but some pre- and post-earthquake changes occurred mainly within 5 days before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake. The response changes of different wells clustering in different tectonic areas showed different features. These changes are distributed in five areas named as A, B, C, D and E. The response changes in A area with short hypo-central distance (less than 550 km) were mainly pre-earthquake changes occurring more than 5 days before the event. Those in area B (in Huanan tectonic block) and C (in Huabei tectonic block) were mainly co-seismic changes. The hypo-central distance is about 1100–1280 and 800–1160 km, respectively. These changes were high-frequency water-level oscillations induced by seismic waves and accompanied by prominent and permanent water-level jumps and drops. There are also some post-seismic changes including discharge rate and water radon and well pressure changes in area C. Those in area D in the Yanshan tectonic block were mainly co-seismic and post-seismic changes including water level, water temperature, and water radon concentration, etc., showing prominent and permanent water-level jumps and drops and rising concentrations of water radon. The hypo-central distance is about 1750–2060 km. Those in Area E were mainly co-seismic changes showing prominent and permanent water-level jump. The hypo-central distance is about 1810–2120 km. Three moderate earthquakes occurred in area D and one strong earthquake occurred in area E 4 months after the Chi-Chi earthquake. The different features of the response changes might be caused by the changes of local hydrologic conditions (like permeability) induced by seismic waves. On the other hand, these response changes might indicate the near-critical conditions in the area where the response changes clustered. Such changes might be understood by the crustal buckling hypothesis. It is thought that the response changes might be a kind of precursor that implies elevated earthquake risk in the region. 相似文献
10.
Concentration of Rn-222 in soil has been monitored continuously at Ravangla in the Sikkim Himalayan Region of eastern India for about 7 months from October 2015 to May 2016 to detect earthquake-induced anomalies. The recorded data clearly show that various physical and meteorological parameters influence the soil radon concentration, leading to very complex soil Rn-222 time series. The components due to such external influences have been removed from the present time series, and Hilbert–Huang transform (HHT) applied for analysis of the data. Two radon anomalies caused due to earthquakes of magnitude M b = 5.0 that occurred on 19 November 2015 and 5 April 2016 within an epicentral distance of 500 km from the monitoring station have been identified on the soil Rn-222 time series. These two precursory anomalies occurred 9 and 10 days, respectively, before the occurrence of the earthquakes. The absence of spurious signals or missing anomalies demonstrates that HHT is advantageous for analysis of nonlinear non-stationary data, and hence, it is a promising technique to analyse soil radon behaviour for predicting the possibility of occurrence of earthquakes. 相似文献
11.
The study area is located in the south-eastern part of the Crati valley (Northern Calabria, Italy), which is a graben bordered by N–S trending normal faults and crossed by NW–SE normal left-lateral faults. Numerous severe crustal earthquakes have affected the area in historical time. Present-day seismic activity is mainly related to the N–S faults located along the eastern border of the graben. In this area, much seismically induced deep-seated deformation has also been recognised.In the present paper, radon concentrations in soil gas have been measured and compared with (a) lithology, (b) Quaternary faults, (c) historical and instrumental seismicity, and (d) deep-seated deformation.The results highlight the following:
- (a) There is no evidence of a strong correlation between lithology and the radon anomalies.
- (b) A clear correlation between the N–S geometry of radon anomalies and the orientation of main fault systems has been recognised, except in the southernmost part of the area, where the radon concentrations are strongly affected by the superposition of the N–S and the NW–SE fault systems.
- (c) Epicentral zones of instrumental and historical earthquakes correspond to the highest values of radon concentrations, probably indicating recent activated fault segments. In particular, high radon values occur in the zones struck by earthquakes in 1835, 1854, and 1870.
- (d) Deep-seated gravitational deformation generally coincides with zones characterised by low radon concentrations.
12.
本文提出了一个新的地震机理模型:高温高压高导低速流变体震源腔(简称震源腔)与闭锁断层组合模型。高温高压下的软流圈物质在复杂相变空间中,受到温度场中的异重流作用和受迫振动作用而形成深源震源腔。随着软流圈物质上涌, 幔汁在温度差和压力差驱使下,涌入地壳中的物理空间,形成浅源地震震源腔。由于温度升高使得腔体内岩石部分熔融或全部熔融,释放出大量气液流体,拓展腔体空间范围,同时提升腔体内压。当腔体内部有效压力(即内压与上覆地壳压力之差)达到腔体边缘或者上方与脆性活动断层交会部位的岩石破坏强度时,震源腔便进入临界状态。当软流圈物质上涌继续向腔体内供能,或者由于星体连线在震源区造成触发作用,便引起震源腔的隐蔽爆炸,即隐爆,释放腔体内部积累的能量,同时释放区域构造应力场作用于闭锁断层积累的应变能。 腔体隐爆释放能量与腔体规模正相关。闭锁断层释放应变能与闭锁断层规模、闭锁区大小以及区域构造应力场强度相关。震源腔与脆性活动断层交会部位,是潜在震源位置。多年观测资料表明,震源腔从进入临界状态到隐爆,一般经历1~13天,平均7天。长期观测表明,潜在震中区在震前经常出现干旱、气温升高、海温升高、大量水汽释放等异常现象。通过超低频地震仪监测、重力波作用于水汽形成的地震云的观测、次声波的监测、卫星重力异常反映的高程面垂向震荡监测、以及地基卫星导航系统地面升降监测等,都显示出震源腔进入临界状态后的胀缩震荡引起震中及其外围地面的垂向振动。文中还给出了震源腔体隐爆遗迹的直接证据。 相似文献
13.
中国大陆科学钻探主孔0-2000米流体地球化学异常与地震的关系 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3
CCSD流体中He、N2、Ar是记录地震的敏感载体，可能记录了本地一些中小地震及远强震的异常信息。与远强震对应的流体异常幅度大，一般始于远强震前数天，且He、He／Ar、N2／Ar多为负异常，Ar多为正异常；而本地中小地震大多造成主孔流体组分的小幅度波动变化。远强震可能改变了CCSD钻探区的地下流体循环，地震期间监测到泥浆中相对富Ar贫N2和He的地下流体贡献增加，震后，地震引起的附加流体贡献逐渐消失。CCSD的流体组分和比值可能记录了区内地壳应力变化，反映了远强震期间区域构造活动乃至地球深部构造活动产生的场兆、源兆信息，地壳屈曲的假设可以加深CCSD流体作为远强震敏感载体的理解。远强震期间CCSD流体异常也可能是记录了震前长周期波传播至CCSD主孔时激发的流体变化，反映了震源区的应力变化。 相似文献
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15.
Bodrum Peninsula is located between Hellenic Trench in the west and Gökova Fault Zone in the east which is affected by hundreds of earthquakes every year. Because of its active environment is allowed to monitor tracers/precursors continuously to analyse natural processes. This study focused on the determination of ground water radon (222Rn) concentrations in the Bodrum Peninsula in terms of seismic activities. Radon levels of ten ground water wells were measured periodically throughout the peninsula and these wells were divided into two groups according to the number of earthquakes they are exposed. Radon variations in second group stations are fairly significant as a result of high number of earthquakes. In these stations, radon continuously increased before the seismic storm and then decreased step by step. The results indicated that radon variations in ground waters of Bodrum Peninsula can be a good indicator for seismic storms instead of one specific event. 相似文献
16.
The investigation throughout the world in past two decades provides evidence which indicate that significance variation of radon and other soil gases occur in association with major geophysical events such as earthquake. The traditional statistical algorithm includes regression to remove the effect of the meteorological parameters from the raw radon and anomalies are calculated either taking the periodicity in seasonal variations or periodicity computed using Fast Fourier Transform. In case of neural networks the regression step is avoided. A neural network model can be found which can learn the behavior of radon with respect to meteorological parameter in order that changing emission patterns may be adapted to by the model on its own. The output of this neural model is the estimated radon values. This estimated radon value is used to decide whether anomalous behavior of radon has occurred and a valid precursor may be identified. The neural network model developed using Radial Basis function network gave a prediction rate of 87.7%. The same was accompanied by huge false alarms. The present paper deals with improved neural network algorithm using Probabilistic Neural Networks that requires neither an explicit step of regression nor use of any specific period. This neural network model reduces the false alarms to zero and gave same prediction rate as RBF networks. 相似文献
17.
A robust satellite data analysis technique (RAT) has been recently proposed as a suitable tool for satellite TIR surveys in seismically active regions and already successfully tested in different cases of earthquakes (both high and medium–low magnitudes).In this paper, the efficiency and the potentialities of the RAT technique have been tested even when it is applied to a wide area with extremely variable topography, land coverage and climatic characteristics (the whole Indian subcontinent). Bhuj–Gujarat's earthquake (occurred on 26th January 2001, MS 7.9) has been considered as a test case in the validation phase, while a relatively unperturbed period (no earthquakes with MS ≥ 5, in the same region and in the same period) has been analyzed for confutation purposes. To this aim, 6 years of Meteosat-5 TIR observations have been processed for the characterization of the TIR signal behaviour at each specific observation time and location.The anomalous TIR values, detected by RAT, have been evaluated in terms of time–space persistence in order to establish the existence of actually significant anomalous transients. The results indicate that the studied area was affected by significant positive thermal anomalies which were identified, at different intensity levels, not far from the Gujarat coast (since 15th January, but with a clearer evidence on 22nd January) and near the epicentral area (mainly on 21st January). On 25th January (1 day before Gujarat's earthquake) significant TIR anomalies appear on the Northern Indian subcontinent, showing a remarkable coincidence with the principal tectonic lineaments of the region (thrust Himalayan boundary).On the other hand, the results of the confutation analysis indicate that no meaningful TIR anomalies appear in the absence of seismic events with MS ≥ 5. 相似文献
18.
Chandra Sagarika Kumar Praveen Siingh Devendraa Roy I. Victor N. Jeni Kamra A. K. 《Natural Hazards》2022,110(1):57-68
Physical phenomena observed before strong earthquakes have been reported for centuries. Precursor signals, which include radon anomalies, electrical signals, water level changes and ground lights near the epicenter, can all be used for earthquake prediction. Anomalous negative signals observed by ground-based atmospheric electric field instruments under fair weather conditions constitute a novel earthquake prediction approach. In theory, the abnormal radiation of heat before an earthquake produces fair weather around the epicenter. To determine the near-epicenter weather conditions prior to an earthquake, 81 global earthquake events with magnitudes of 6 or above from 2008 to 2021 were collected. According to Harrison's fair weather criteria, in 81.48% of all statistical cases, the weather was fair 6 h before the earthquake; in 62.96% of all cases, the weather was fair 24 h before the event. Moreover, most of these cases without fair weather several hours before the earthquake were near the sea. Among the 37 inland earthquakes, 86.49% were preceded by 6 h of fair weather, and 70.27% were preceded by fair weather for 24 h. We conclude that the weather near the epicenter might be fair for several hours before a strong earthquake, especially for inland events.
相似文献19.
S.K. Guha 《Tectonophysics》1979,52(1-4)
There have been instances of premonitory variations in tilts, displacements, strains, telluric current, seismomagnetic effects, seismic velocities ( Vp, Vs) and their ratio (Vp/Vs), b-values, radon emission, etc. preceding large and moderate earthquakes, especially in areas near epicentres and along faults and other weak zones. Intensity and duration (T) of these premonitory quantities are very much dependent on magnitude (M) of the seismic event. Hence, these quantities may be utilised for prediction of an incoming seismic event well in advance of the actual earthquake. In the recent past, tilts, strain in deep underground rock and crustal displacements have been observed in the Koyna earthquake region over a decade covering pre- and postearthquake periods; and these observations confirm their reliability for qualitative as well as quantitative premonitory indices. Tilt began to change significantly one to two years before the Koyna earthquake of December 10, 1967, of magnitude 7.0. Sudden changes in ground tilt measured in a watertube tiltmeter accompanied an earthquake of magnitude 5.2 on October 17, 1973 and in other smaller earthquakes in the Koyna region, though premonitory changes in tilt preceding smaller earthquakes were not so much in evidence. However, changes in strains in deep underground rock were observed in smaller earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 and above. Furthermore, as a very large number of earthquakes (M = 1–7.0) were recorded in the extensive seismic net in the Koyna earthquake region during 1963–1975, precise b-value variations as computed from the above data, could reveal indirectly the state of crustal (tectonic) strain variations in the earthquake focal region and consequently act as a powerful premonitory index, especially for the significant Koyna earthquakes of December 10, 1967 (M = 7.0) and October 17, 1973 (M = 5.2). The widespread geodetic and magnetic levelling observations covering the pre- and postearthquake periods indicate significant vertical and horizontal crustal displacements, possibly accompanied by large-scale migration of underground magma during the large seismic event of December 10, 1967 in the Koyna region (M = 7.0). Duration (T) of premonitory changes in tilt, strains, etc., is generally governed by the equation of the type logT = A + BM (A and B are statistically determined coefficients). Similar other instances of premonitory evidences are also observed in micro-earthquakes (M = − 1 to 2) due to activation of a fault caused by nearby reservoir water-level fluctuations. 相似文献
20.
Seismic coupling and uncoupling at subduction zones 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Seismic coupling has been used as a qualitative measure of the “interaction” between the two plates at subduction zones. Kanamori (1971) introduced seismic coupling after noting that the characteristic size of earthquakes varies systematically for the northern Pacific subduction zones. A quantitative global comparison of many subduction zones reveals a strong correlation of earthquake size with two other variables: age of the subducting lithosphere and convergence rate. The largest earthquakes occur in zones with young lithosphere and fast convergence rates, while zones with old lithosphere and slow rates are relatively aseismic for large earthquakes. Results from a study of the rupture process of three great earthquakes indicate that maximum earthquake size is directly related to the asperity distribution on the fault plane (asperities are strong regions that resist the motion between the two plates). The zones with the largest earthquakes have very large asperities, while the zones with smaller earthquakes have small scattered asperities. This observation can be translated into a simple model of seismic coupling, where the horizontal compressive stress between the two plates is proportional to the ratio of the summed asperity area to the total area of the contact surface. While the variation in asperity size is used to establish a connection between earthquake size and tectonic stress, it also implies that plate age and rate affect the asperity distribution. Plate age and rate can control asperity distribution directly by use of the horizontal compressive stress associated with the “preferred trajectory” (i.e. the vertical and horizontal velocities of subducting slabs are determined by the plate age and convergence velocity). Indirect influences are many, including oceanic plate topography and the amount of subducted sediments.All subduction zones are apparently uncoupled below a depth of about 40 km, and we propose that the basalt to eclogite phase change in the down-going oceanic crust may be largely responsible. This phase change should start at a depth of 30–35 km, and could at least partially uncouple the plates by superplastic deformation throughout the oceanic crust during the phase change. 相似文献