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1.
Introduction In the probability analysis method of seismic risk considering time-space inhomogeneity of seismic activity and adopted commonly in China (State Seismological Bureau, 1996) (called in-homogeneous distribution model for short), the division of seismic statistical regions, delimitation of potential seismic sources and estimation of seismicity parameters are the main links that affect significantly the estimation of ground motion parameters of a site. HUANG and WU (2005) studied …  相似文献   

2.
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Thailand   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  
A set of probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Thailand has been derived using procedures developed for the latest US National Seismic Hazard Maps. In contrast to earlier hazard maps for this region, which are mostly computed using seismic source zone delineations, the presented maps are based on the combination of smoothed gridded seismicity, crustal-fault, and subduction source models. Thailand’s composite earthquake catalogue is revisited and expanded, covering a study area limited by 0°–30°N Latitude and 88°–110°E Longitude and the instrumental period from 1912 to 2007. The long-term slip rates and estimates of earthquake size from paleoseismological studies are incorporated through a crustal fault source model. Furthermore, the subduction source model is used to model the megathrust Sunda subduction zones, with variable characteristics along the strike of the faults. Epistemic uncertainty is taken into consideration by the logic tree framework incorporating basic quantities, such as different source modelling, maximum cut-off magnitudes and ground motion prediction equations. The ground motion hazard map is presented over a 10 km grid in terms of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.2, 1.0, and 2.0 undamped natural periods and a 5% critical damping ratio for 10 and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The presented maps give expected ground motions that are based on more extensive data sources than applied in the development of previous maps. The main findings are that northern and western Thailand are subjected to the highest hazard. The largest contributors to short- and long-period ground motion hazard in the Bangkok region are from the nearby active faults and Sunda subduction zones, respectively.  相似文献   

3.
This study presents a time-dependent approach for seismic hazard in Tehran and surrounding areas. Hazard is evaluated by combining background seismic activity, and larger earthquakes may emanate from fault segments. Using available historical and paleoseismological data or empirical relation, the recurrence time and maximum magnitude of characteristic earthquakes for the major faults have been explored. The Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution has been used to calculate equivalent fictitious seismicity rate for major faults in the region. To include ground motion uncertainty, a logic tree and five ground motion prediction equations have been selected based on their applicability in the region. Finally, hazard maps have been presented.  相似文献   

4.
State‐of‐the‐art methods for the assessment of building fragility consider the structural capacity and seismic demand variability in the estimation of the probability of exceeding different damage states. However, questions remain regarding the appropriate treatment of such sources of uncertainty from a statistical significance perspective. In this study, material, geometrical and mechanical properties of a number of building classes are simulated by means of a Monte Carlo sampling process in which the statistical distribution of the aforementioned parameters is taken into consideration. Record selection is performed in accordance with hazard‐consistent distributions of a comprehensive set of intensity measures, and issues related with sufficiency, efficiency, predictability and scaling robustness are addressed. Based on the appraised minimum number of ground motion records required to achieve statistically meaningful estimates of response variability conditioned on different levels of seismic intensity, the concept of conditional fragility functions is presented. These functions translate the probability of exceeding a set of damage states as a function of a secondary sufficient intensity measure, when records are selected and scaled for a particular level of primary seismic intensity parameter. It is demonstrated that this process allows a hazard‐consistent and statistically meaningful representation of uncertainty and correlation in the estimation of intensity‐dependent damage exceedance probabilities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
The last decade of performance‐based earthquake engineering (PBEE) research has seen a rapidly increasing emphasis placed on the explicit quantification of uncertainties. This paper examines uncertainty consideration in input ground‐motion and numerical seismic response analyses as part of PBEE, with particular attention given to the physical consistency and completeness of uncertainty consideration. It is argued that the use of the commonly adopted incremental dynamic analysis leads to a biased representation of the seismic intensity and that when considering the number of ground motions to be used in seismic response analyses, attention should be given to both reducing parameter estimation uncertainty and also limiting ground‐motion selection bias. Research into uncertainties in system‐specific numerical seismic response analysis models to date has been largely restricted to the consideration of ‘low‐level’ constitutive model parameter uncertainties. However, ‘high‐level’ constitutive model and model methodology uncertainties are likely significant and therefore represent a key research area in the coming years. It is also argued that the common omission of high‐level seismic response analysis modelling uncertainties leads to a fallacy that ground‐motion uncertainty is more significant than numerical modelling uncertainty. The author's opinion of the role of uncertainty analysis in PBEE is also presented. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region.  相似文献   

7.
Seismic hazard analysis requires the estimation of the probabilities that earthquakes will take place within a region of interest, and the expected level of ground motion which will be received at a site during the nextt years. The earthquake magnitude has been used as a basic parameter, because it is available, under the assumption that the earthquake occurrence is a compound Poisson process with exponential or multinomial distribution of magnitude.For improving the hazard prediction, we used the seismic moment as a basic parameter to estimate the mean rate, , of occurrence of earthquakes in a function of seismic moment rate and slip rate released in a seismogenic region.As an illustration of the model, the seismic hazard analysis at different sites in and around the Gulf of Corinth, central Greece, is presented on the basis of the earthquake magnitude and the seismic moment. Comparison of the results shows that determination of the mean rate of earthquake occurrence, using the conventional Gutenberg-Richter recurrence model, underestimates the seismic hazard at a site.  相似文献   

8.
潜在震源区地震活动性参数、地震动衰减关系对地震危险性分析结果至关重要。以中国第五代地震动区划图潜在震源区划分方案为基础,采用2类震级分档分别建立自编及五代图潜在震源区空间分布函数,收集4组青藏高原及周缘地区地震动衰减关系,采用不同组合对青藏工程走廊沿线的81个场点进行概率地震危险性分析计算,得到50年超越概率10%(地震重现期475年)的各场点基岩地震动峰值加速度(PGA),并转换为一般场地(Ⅱ类)PGA,对计算结果进行对比分析,并与第五代地震动区划图归档上下限值进行比较。结果显示:采用我国西部地区地震动衰减关系计算得到的PGA最大,采用云南地区地震动衰减关系得到的PGA最小,采用川藏地区及青藏高原东北缘地震动衰减关系时居中;在同一地震动衰减关系下,采用自编空间分布函数计算得到的PGA普遍略大于采用第五代图空间分布函数时;在震级上限为8.5的潜在震源区及附近地区,潜在震源区空间分布函数震级分档对计算结果有显著影响。综合分析表明,采用自编Ⅱ型震级分档空间分布函数方案与川藏地区地震动衰减关系组合方案的计算结果最为理想。最后,采用该组合方案对青藏工程走廊50年超越概率10%的基岩场地PGA及一般场地PGA进行了区划。  相似文献   

9.
Paper describes the extensive work done in the SIGMA project, aimed at improving knowledge on data, methods and tools to better quantify uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment (SHA). The authors cooperated in the study of potential faults and geological structures, earthquake catalogues, selection of ground motion prediction equations, and methods for site effect evaluation suitable for SHA. All the contributions merged into a probabilistic seismic hazard study conducted for three representative sites of the Po Plain in Northern Italy. Po Plain is a low-to-moderate seismicity region, characterized by some critical features, such as blind faulting and deep alluvium sediments, and by scarcity of strong motion data; these sources of uncertainties in seismic hazard estimation are common to other low seismicity areas around the world. Within SIGMA, special care was devoted to: (a) the use of the single station sigma approach inside the probabilistic SHA, (b) the comparative use of generalized attenuation functions to evaluate the hazard contribution of composite fault systems, and (c) the study of the epistemic uncertainties at play when different modelling approaches to site effects are used.  相似文献   

10.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Nepal   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
The seismic ground motion hazard for Nepal has been estimated using a probabilistic approach. A catalogue of earthquakes has been compiled for Nepal and the surrounding region （latitude 26% N and 31.7% N and longitude 79° E and 90° E） from 1255 to 2011. The distribution of catalogued earthquakes, together with available geological and tectonic information were used to delineate twenty-three seismic source seismic source information and probabilistic earthquake hazard prediction relationship, peak ground accelerations （PGAs） have zones in Nepal and the surrounding region. By using the parameters in conjunction with a selected ground motion been calculated at bedrock level with 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The estimated PGA values are in the range of 0.07-0.16 g, 0.21 0.62 g, and 0.38-1.1 g for 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. The resulting ground motion maps show different characteristics of PGA distribution, i.e., high hazard in the far-western and eastern sections, and low hazard in southern Nepal. The quantified PGA values at bedrock level provide information for microzonation studies in different parts of the country.  相似文献   

11.
The seismicity of the North Caucasus is the highest in the European part of Russia. The detection of potential seismic sources here and long-term prediction of earthquakes are extremely important for the assessment of seismic hazard and seismic risk in this densely populated and industrially developed region of the country. The seismogenic structures of the Iran-Caucasus-Anatolia and Central Asia regions, adjacent to European Russia, are the subjects of this study. These structures are responsible for the specific features of regional seismicity and for the geodynamic interaction with adjacent areas of the Scythian and Turan platforms. The most probable potential sources of earthquakes with magnitudes M = 7.0 ± 0.2 and 7.5 ± 0.2 in the North Caucasus are located. The possible macroseismic effect of one of them is assessed.  相似文献   

12.
Seismicity parameters for important urban agglomerations in India   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
India’s urban population has increased in the recent times. An earthquake near an urban agglomeration has the potential to cause severe damage. In this article, seismicity parameters for region surrounding important urban agglomerations in India are estimated. A comprehensive earthquake catalogue for the region (6°E–42°E latitude and 60°N–100°N longitude) including historic and pre-historic events has been compiled from various sources. To estimate the parameters, past earthquake data in a control region of radius 300 km has been assembled to quantify the seismicity around each urban agglomeration. The collected earthquake data is first evaluated for its completeness. From combined (historical and instrumental) data, the seismicity parameters b-value, seismic activity rate, λ and maximum expected magnitude (m max ) have been obtained from the methodology proposed by Kijko and Graham (1998). The obtained activity rates indicate that region surrounding Guwahati urban agglomeration is the most seismically active region followed by Srinagar, Patna, Amritsar and Chandigarh.  相似文献   

13.
A new seismic hazard model for Cairo, the capital city of Egypt is developed herein based on comprehensive consideration of uncertainties in various components of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The proposed seismic hazard model is developed from an updated catalogue of historical and instrumental seismicity, geodetic strain rates derived from GPS-based velocity-field of the crust, and the geologic slip rates of active faults. The seismic source model consists of area sources and active faults characterised to forecast the seismic productivity in the region. Ground motion prediction models are selected to describe the expected ground motion at the sites of interest. The model accounts for inherent epistemic uncertainties of statistical earthquake recurrence; maximum magnitude; ground motion prediction models, and their propagation toward the obtained results. The proposed model is applied to a site-specific hazard analysis for Kottamiya, Rehab City and Zahraa-Madinat-Nasr (hereinafter referred to as Zahraa) to the East of Cairo (Egypt). The site-specific analysis accounts for the site response, through the parameterization of the sites in terms of average 30-m shear-wave velocity (Vs30). The present seismic hazard model can be considered as a reference model for earthquake risk mitigation and proper resilience planning.  相似文献   

14.
K-means cluster analysis and seismicity partitioning for Pakistan   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
Pakistan and the western Himalaya is a region of high seismic activity located at the triple junction between the Arabian, Eurasian and Indian plates. Four devastating earthquakes have resulted in significant numbers of fatalities in Pakistan and the surrounding region in the past century (Quetta, 1935; Makran, 1945; Pattan, 1974 and the recent 2005 Kashmir earthquake). It is therefore necessary to develop an understanding of the spatial distribution of seismicity and the potential seismogenic sources across the region. This forms an important basis for the calculation of seismic hazard; a crucial input in seismic design codes needed to begin to effectively mitigate the high earthquake risk in Pakistan. The development of seismogenic source zones for seismic hazard analysis is driven by both geological and seismotectonic inputs. Despite the many developments in seismic hazard in recent decades, the manner in which seismotectonic information feeds the definition of the seismic source can, in many parts of the world including Pakistan and the surrounding regions, remain a subjective process driven primarily by expert judgment. Whilst much research is ongoing to map and characterise active faults in Pakistan, knowledge of the seismogenic properties of the active faults is still incomplete in much of the region. Consequently, seismicity, both historical and instrumental, remains a primary guide to the seismogenic sources of Pakistan. This study utilises a cluster analysis approach for the purposes of identifying spatial differences in seismicity, which can be utilised to form a basis for delineating seismogenic source regions. An effort is made to examine seismicity partitioning for Pakistan with respect to earthquake database, seismic cluster analysis and seismic partitions in a seismic hazard context. A magnitude homogenous earthquake catalogue has been compiled using various available earthquake data. The earthquake catalogue covers a time span from 1930 to 2007 and an area from 23.00° to 39.00°N and 59.00° to 80.00°E. A threshold magnitude of 5.2 is considered for K-means cluster analysis. The current study uses the traditional metrics of cluster quality, in addition to a seismic hazard contextual metric to attempt to constrain the preferred number of clusters found in the data. The spatial distribution of earthquakes from the catalogue was used to define the seismic clusters for Pakistan, which can be used further in the process of defining seismogenic sources and corresponding earthquake recurrence models for estimates of seismic hazard and risk in Pakistan. Consideration of the different approaches to cluster validation in a seismic hazard context suggests that Pakistan may be divided into K?=?19 seismic clusters, including some portions of the neighbouring countries of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and India.  相似文献   

15.
This paper analyzes the seismicity in Bohai Sea,introducing a shape factor K to characterize the seismic risk distribution in sub-regions of the sea. Based on the seismic design ground motions for 46 platforms located in the Bohai Sea,a statistical analysis was performed for different peak ground acceleration (PGA) ratios at two different probability levels. In accordance with the two-stage design method,a scheme of two seismic design levels is proposed,and two seismic design objectives are established respectively for the strength level earthquake and the ductility level earthquake. By analogy with and comparison to the Chinese seismic design code for buildings,it is proposed that the probability level for the strength level earthquake and ductility level earthquake have a return period of 200 and 1000 - 2500 years,respectively. The validity of these proposed values is discussed. Finally,the PGAs corresponding to these two probability levels are calculated for different sub-regions of the Bohai Sea.  相似文献   

16.
ＴｈｅａｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｏｆｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｄａｔａｗｉｔｈｄｉｆｆｅｒｅｎｔｐｒｅｃｉｓｉｏｎｉｎｔｈｅｄｅｔｅｒｍｉｎａｔｉｏｎｏｆｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｉｔｙｐａｒａｍｅｔｅｒｓＸｕｅ－ＳｈｅｎＪＩＮ（金学申）；Ｙｉｎｇ－ＨｕａＤＡＩ（戴英华）；Ｊｕ...  相似文献   

17.
This paper investigates circumstances behind the occurrence of negative ε (the normalized difference between the spectral acceleration of a recorded ground motion and the median response predicted by a ground motion prediction equation) in probabilistic seismic hazard deaggregation. Negative ε values are of engineering interest because of their impact on the conditional mean spectrum (CMS), which is a proposed alternative to the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) as a target spectrum for ground motion selection. In the case where target ε values from deaggregation are positive, the CMS calculation produces relatively lower response spectra than the UHS. Positive target ε values occur almost universally in active seismic regions at long return periods of engineering interest, but the possibility of negative target ε values is important because in the case of negative target ε, some relationships between the CMS and UHS would reverse. This paper describes the calculation of target ε, performs parametric studies to determine when negative ε values occur in deaggregation, and investigates the potential impact on target spectrum calculation and ground motion selection. The case studies indicate that special seismicity models and certain ground motion prediction equations have the most significant effect on ε values and a combination of these characteristics in Eastern North America creates the most likely situation for negative target ε to occur. CMS results are nonintuitive when the target ε is negative, but it is not clear that this is a common practical concern because negative target ε occurs only in well‐constrained areas. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
冯静  高孟潭  陈鲲 《地震学报》2013,35(4):553-560
震后快速产出的震动烈度分布是地震应急救援非常有效的依据, 通常由烈度与地震动参数的经验关系给出. 有台站的场点, 地震动参数可以直接由台站数据给出确定性的结果; 而无台站的场点, 地震动参数只能由衰减关系给出估计值. 目前我国台站覆盖有限, 且难于实时获取, 快速生成的地震动参数主要依赖于地震动衰减关系, 再依据烈度与地震动参数的经验关系, 输出确定性的震动烈度分布. 由于衰减关系本身存在着不确定性, 将其估计值用于生成确定性的震动烈度分布是不准确的. 而且实践证明, 震动烈度与实际调查烈度存在差异. 鉴于此, 从衰减关系模型中的ε出发, 提出了场点(城镇)遭遇不同烈度的概率计算方法: 利用衰减关系的估计值与衰减关系的标准差, 构造峰值加速度(PGA)变化的对数正态分布, 然后以烈度分档对应的PGA范围, 计算震区各城镇遭遇不同烈度的概率及各城镇抗震设防烈度被超越的概率. 具体以1966年3月8日河北邢台MS6.8地震为例, 说明了此方法的可行性, 认为以概率形式给出城镇可能遭遇的烈度在表述上更为合理, 并建议将场点(城镇)遭遇烈度的概率表达方法用于震害快速评估.   相似文献   

19.
We present the results of a new genera tion of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Switzerland. This study replaces the previous intensity-based generation of national hazard maps of 1978. Based on a revised moment-magnitude earthquake catalog for Switzerland and the surrounding regions, covering the period 1300–2003, sets of recurrence parameters (a and b values, M max ) are estimated. Information on active faulting in Switzerland is too sparse to be used as source model. We develop instead two models of areal sources. The first oriented towards capturing historical and instrumental seismicity, the second guided largely by tectonic principles and express ing the alterative view that seismicity is less stationary and thus future activity may occur in previously quiet regions. To estimate three alterna tive a and b value sets and their relative weighting, we introduce a novel approach based on the modified Akaike information criterion, which allows us to decide when the data in a zone deserves to be fitted with a zone-specific b value. From these input parameters, we simulate synthetic earthquake catalogs of one-million-year duration down to magnitude 4.0, which also reflect the difference in depth distribution between the Alpine Foreland and the Alps. Using a specific predictive spectral ground motion model for Switzerland, we estimate expected ground motions in units of the 5% damped acceleration response spectrum at frequencies of 0.5–10 Hz for all of Switzerland, referenced to rock sites with an estimated shear wave velocity of 1,500 m/s2 in the upper 30 m. The highest hazard is found in the Wallis, in the Basel region, in Graubünden and along the Alpine front, with maximum spectral accelerations at 5 Hz frequency reaching 150 cm/s2 for a return period of 475 years and 720 cm/s2 for 10,000 years. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: ) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

20.
Recent seismic activity in southern Lebanon is of particular interest since the tectonic framework of this region is poorly understood. In addition, seismicity in this region is very infrequent compared with the Roum fault to the east, which is seismically active. Between early 2008 and the end of 2010, intense seismic activity occurred in the area. This was manifested by several swarm-like sequences and continuous trickling seismicity over many days, amounting in total to more than 900 earthquakes in the magnitude range of 0.5?≤?M d?≤?5.2. The region of activity extended in a 40-km long zone mainly in a N-S direction and was located about 10 km west of the Roum fault. The largest earthquake, with a duration magnitude of M d?=?5.2, occurred on February 15, 2008, and was located at 33.327° N, 35.406° E at a depth of 3 km. The mean-horizontal peak ground acceleration observed at two nearby accelerometers exceeded 0.05 g, where the strongest peak horizontal acceleration was 55 cm/s2 at about 20 km SE of the epicenter. Application of the HypoDD algorithm yielded a pronounced N-S zone, parallel to the Roum fault, which was not known to be seismically active. Focal mechanism, based on full waveform inversion and the directivity effect of the strongest earthquake, suggests left-lateral strike-slip NNW-SSE faulting that crosses the NE-SW traverse faults in southern Lebanon.  相似文献   

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