共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
John W. Nielsen-Gammon 《GeoJournal》2007,70(1):21-26
The movie An Inconvenient Truth is a powerful portrayal of global warming and its impacts. The main scientific argument presented in the movie is for the
most part consistent with the weight of scientific evidence, but with some of the main points needing updating, correction,
or qualification. The detailed argument relies almost entirely on past and current evidence and neglects almost all information
that can be gained from computer models, perhaps because such information would be difficult for a lay audience to grasp,
believe, or connect with emotionally. This places an undue weight on current events as signs of ongoing climate change: some
such events are apparently not related at all to climate change, while for other specific events the role of global warming
is difficult or impossible to establish. 相似文献
2.
Gerald R. North 《GeoJournal》2007,70(1):27-31
An Inconvenient Truth provides an opportunity to examine the differences between scientific statements and the mixed statements made by politicians.
The Gore movie is a powerful example of the latter. There are some inaccuracies and exaggerations in the film, but on the
whole it represents mainstream scientific views on global warming. This essay looks into the state of the art of climate change
research including its scientific underpinnings. Climate science is in a state of ‘normal science’ as discussed by Kuhn. There
is a large body of scientists who are adherents to the paradigm and there does not appear to be any serious alternative at
this time. 相似文献
3.
4.
北极海冰减退引起的北极放大机理与全球气候效应 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
自20世纪70年代以来,全球气温持续增高,对北极产生了深刻的影响。21世纪以来,北极的气温变化是全球平均水平的2倍,被称为"北极放大"现象。北极海冰覆盖范围呈不断减小的趋势,2012年北极海冰已经不足原来的40%,如此大幅度的减退是过去1 450年以来独有的现象。科学家预测,不久的将来,将会出现夏季无冰的北冰洋。全球变暖背景下北极内部发生的正反馈过程是北极放大现象的关键,不仅使极区的气候发生显著变化,而且对全球气候产生非常显著的影响,导致很多极端天气气候现象的发生。北极科学的重要使命之一是揭示这些正反馈过程背后的机理。北极放大有关的重大科学问题主要与气—冰—海相互作用有关,海冰是北极放大中最活跃的因素,要明确海冰结构的变化,充分考虑融池、侧向融化、积雪和海冰漂移等因素,将海冰热力学特性的改变定量表达出来。海洋是北极变化获取能量的关键因素,是太阳能的转换器和储存器,要认识海洋热通量背后的能量分配问题,即能量储存与释放的联系机理,认识淡水和跃层结构变化对海气耦合的影响。全面认识北极气候系统的变化是研究北极放大的最终目的,要揭示气—冰—海相互作用过程、北极海洋与大气之间反馈的机理、北极变化过程中的气旋和阻塞过程、北极云雾对北极变化的影响。在对北极海冰、海洋和气候深入研究的基础上,重点研究极地涡旋罗斯贝波的核心作用,以及罗斯贝波变异的物理过程,深入研究北极变化对我国气候影响的主要渠道、关键过程和机理。 相似文献
5.
James Rose 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2010,121(3):334-341
This brief review provides an Earth Science perspective on present climate change (global warming) using evidence from past ice ages with details from the Quaternary ice age. It places the present (Quaternary) ice age in the context of Earth history and outlines possible causes of ice ages and the scale and style of ice age climate. Milankovitch climate forcing is described and explained as the cause of relatively predictable climatic variations within an ice age (and at other times), and this is followed by an outline of the factors likely to be responsible for short and rapid sub-Milankovitch climate variations that are superimposed on the predictable changes. Finally the anomalous, relatively constant climate of the last 11.5 ka (Holocene) is highlighted and explained in terms of human input of greenhouse gasses into the Earth's atmosphere. 相似文献
6.
燃烧形成的黑碳粒子进入大气中可影响辐射平衡,导致全球气候变暖,其沉降在河流、湖泊、海洋、土壤等环境中对全球生物地球化学循环起到重要的作用,成为当前国际地球科学研究的热点问题。综述了黑碳的定义及排放、沉降、降解过程,并总结了其在现在及过去环境和气候系统中的重要作用与研究意义。黑碳是全球惰性有机碳库的重要组成部分,在全球慢速碳循环中发挥潜在作用。因其具有很强的吸光特性,它在区域气候变暖过程中扮演重要角色。沉降在不同地质载体中的黑碳难以降解,可以保存几百万年,为地质历史时期古气候和古环境重建研究提供重要信息。海洋沉积物过去数百万年的黑碳记录指示了天然火的演化信息,晚第四纪黄土剖面黑碳也指示了天然火的变化信息,最近千年的湖泊和冰芯黑碳记录既反映了天然火的信息,也指示人类活动的信号。未来黑碳研究应进一步关注标准测量方法,以真正理解黑碳在全球气候与环境系统中的作用。 相似文献
7.
国际南极冰盖与海平面变化研究述评 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
海平面上升是全球变暖的主要后果之一。尽管有少数冰川学家认为,气候变暖并不能确保雪积累量的显著增加,同时可能出现冰流的突然变化,因此南极冰盖在未来海平面变化中的作用存在很大的不确定性。但近几十年来南极半岛气温的急剧上升,已使大量的冰架崩解。冰架崩解并不对海平面产生真正的影响,但反映出南极洲气候与冰川存在急剧变化的可能。 相似文献
8.
《Quaternary Science Reviews》2005,24(14-15):1547-1557
Correlation of paleoclimatic evidence with orbital changes shows that the build-up of polar ice accelerated when low obliquity coincided with perihelion in Northern Hemisphere winter. Under low obliquity the insolation was channeled to the tropics at the expense of both polar caps. As perihelion moved from winter solstice toward spring equinox, the solar beam in astronomic winter and spring became stronger than in summer and autumn. This orbital configuration under climate conditions like today would lead to warming of tropical oceans but cooling of the polar regions. The areally weighted global mean surface temperature, which is dominated by the low latitudes, would increase. Consequently, during the first millennia, the early glacial ice build-up was most likely accompanied by global warming. It was the associated increase of meridional insolation and temperature gradients, which were instrumental in the transition to a glacial.A significant part of the current global warming is due to the gradual temperature increase of the tropical oceans. As the changing orbital configuration today resembles that of the last interglacial/glacial transition, the warming is likely to have a natural component. 相似文献
9.
20世纪全球变暖的冰冻圈证据 总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13
20世纪80年代以来，地面气象观测结果表明全球气温在明显升高，而探空资料和卫星遥感资却表明低层大气在降温，这使得人们对于全球变暖问题提出了质疑。通过对近100多年来冰冻圈各组成要素（冰川、积雪、冻土、海冰等）变化的综合分析，并结合全球不同地区的冰芯记录，证明了20世纪全球气候是在变暖，指出开展冰冻圈（尤其是冰盖、积雪、冻土和海冰）与大气／海洋之间相互作用（影响和响应）过程研究的必要性和迫切性。 相似文献
10.
11.
利用古里雅冰芯近2 000 a来的温度代用资料, 用奇异谱分析方法对气候变化的趋势及人类活动造成的影响进行了分析, 指出近2 000 a来气候一直在变暖, 这是气候的自然变暖过程. 同时分析结果显示, 工业革命以来, 人类活动对气候的增暖十分明显. 正是因为气候的自然变暖和人类活动影响的叠加, 才使得20世纪成为过去2 000 a来最温暖的100 a. 相似文献
12.
《地学前缘(英文版)》2015,6(6)
Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical issues affecting the environment.Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon,many research scientists are widely in agreement that the increase in temperature in the 20 th century is anthropologically related.The associated effects are the variability of rainfall and cyclonic patterns that are being observed globally.In Southeast Asia the link between global warming and the seasonal atmospheric flow during the monsoon seasons shows varying degree of fuzziness.This study investigates the impact of climate change on the seasonality of monsoon Asia and its effect on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia.The comparison of decadal variation of precipitation and temperature anomalies before the 1970 s found general increases which were mostly varying.But beyond the 1970 s,global precipitation anomalous showed increases that almost corresponded with increases in global temperature anomalies for the same period.There are frequent changes and a shift westward of the Indian summer monsoon.Although precipitation is observed to be 70%below normal levels,in some areas the topography affects the intensity of rainfall.These shifting phenomenon of other monsoon season in the region are impacting on the variability of rainfall and the onset of monsoons in Southeast Asia and is predicted to delay for 15 days the onset of the monsoon in the future.The variability of monsoon rainfall in the SEA region is observed to be decadal and the frequency and intensity of intermittent flooding of some areas during the monsoon season have serious consequences on the human,financial,infrastructure and food security of the region. 相似文献
13.
全球气候变暖争议中的核心问题 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
综合分析了全球气候变暖争议中的3个核心问题:①全球变暖停滞了吗?回答是不一定。虽然根据HadCRUT3序列显示1999—2008年温度增量很小,但是这10年仍是过去30年中最暖的10年。而根据NASA GISS序列,则同期温度增量仍达到0.19℃/10a。目前全球地表气温在一个较暖平台上振荡,不能忽视自然气候变率。②气候变暖完全是由人类活动造成的吗?回答是否定的。虽然温室效应加剧可能是全球变暖的主要原因。但是,ENSO、太阳活动、火山活动、热盐环流等对全球变暖也有影响,在年代际及年际尺度上其影响甚至有时可能超过人类活动的作用。其中,太阳活动对气候变化的影响是需要重点考虑的因素。③气候变暖的影响有十分明显的迹象吗?回答是肯定的。近几年冰雪圈融化的速率及海平面上升的速率均超过了2007年IPCC第四次评估报告的估计,因此对未来SL上升的预估值也增加了。 相似文献
14.
《Geoforum》2015
In the United States, contemporary anti-science education coalitions are increasingly linking climate change and evolution using “teach the controversy” campaigns. Awareness of this political phenomena raises questions about the extent to which portrayals of global warming predictions as mere knowledge claims undermine efforts to increase public understanding of scientific consensus about global warming. This paper uses a critical political ecology framework to explore the problematization of climate change consensus located and performed across discourses of secondary science teaching and learning. Theories of resistance are used to analyze teachers’ everyday experiences with classroom pushback about climate change. Data collection included key informant interviews with state science education stakeholders and on-line survey of 5th–12th grade science teachers in Oklahoma, USA. The article synthesizes the situated discourses of Oklahoma science teachers’ and their attitudes about teaching climate change in the face of public controversy. Our analysis demonstrates teachers marginalized by anti-science controversies but engaged in everyday acts of resistance to political, ideological, and religious norms. Most notably, science teachers re-purpose “teach the controversy” frames as a way to introduce climate change where it might not otherwise be included. We argue that, contextualized within a history of contestation over the teaching of evolution, the practice of teaching ‘both sides’ is an important boundary ordering device that bridges convinced and skeptical discourses in the classroom. This research informs new roles and possibilities for science education on global environmental change by reminding climate scientists, educators, and policy advocates that all climate change knowledge is coproduced. 相似文献
15.
从吉林省安图县案例看人类对全球变化适应的行为心理学研究 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
应用行为心理学理论和方法,从气候变暖的环境“刺激”到农业种植行为改变的“反应（响应行为）”的全部适应行为过程,涉及刺激、认知、辨识、选择、反馈等环节,需要解决的关键科学问题包括：①人类如何感知和辨识全球变暖及其影响;②哪些因素怎样影响人类适应行为的发生;③人类适应行为的评价与反馈机制。对安图县实例的分析可以看出,一方面很好地验证了该研究思路;另一方面却也反映出,此类研究需要建立在一系列对典型区域进行个案取证调查的实证研究基础上。 相似文献
16.
Aiming at the current climate status, i.e., drastic rise of atmospheric greenhouse gases and the apparent trend of global warming, the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP), launched in 2013, proposed four scientific challenges, including the response of global climate to CO2 rise, the feedback of ice-sheet and sea-level to global warming, the dynamics of the mid- and low-latitude hydro-cycle, and the mechanism of the marine carbon-chemical buffering system. By August 2017, eight IODP expeditions of climate-related themes were implemented, focusing on the Neogene evolution of the monsoon system over Asia-Pacific-Indian and the West Pacific Warm Pool, with specific interests in the variabilities and mechanisms of the Asian Monsoon system on orbital-to millennial-scales, as well as the connections between Asian Monsoon and the uplift/weathering of the Tibetan Plateau on tectonic time scale. The planned IODP expeditions in the forthcoming two years will explore the Southern high-latitude climate histories of West Antarctic ice in the Cenozoic, and Southern Ocean currents and carbon cycle in the Cretaceous-Paleogene. In sum, during the current phase of IODP (2013-2023), our knowledge about the marine climate system would be greatly advanced via deciphering the past changes in tropical processes of Asian Monsoon and West Pacific Warm Pool, as well as in high-latitude factors of the West Antarctic ice. A better scientific background of natural variability would be provided, accordingly, for predicting the future tendency in climate change. In this context, China’s strategic directions include the global monsoon concept, the tropical forcing hypothesis, and in particular the climate effect of the Sunda Shelf. 相似文献
17.
全球气候变化的几个关键问题辨析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
基于对全球气候变化事实与国家气候变化行动的分析,就当前全球气候变化科学认识和行动中的几个关键问题的不同观点与争论进行了辨析。指出：①应以比较确定的科学事实和“共同但有区别的责任”作为应对气候变化的出发点;②全球增温的幅度被高估了;③近百年全球变暖主要归因于人类活动的论断科学证据不足;④全球变暖的影响有利有弊,具体问题需具体分析;⑤气候预估不等于气候预测,气候预测尚待时日,气候预估的不确定性也非常大;⑥当前应对全球变暖的行动应采取“适应为主、减缓为辅”的战略。 相似文献
18.
《Geoforum》2017
In order to address the impacts of climate change, global multilateral institutions, development organizations, and national and regional science organizations are creating climate services – packages of useful climate information intended to help decision makers. This diffuse collection of actors and institutions suggest that producing climate services will help bridge gaps between climate scientists and decision-makers and will therefore help vulnerable countries and people manage the risks and optimize the impacts of climate change. This article examines this global science-policy ecosystem using the case of climate services produced by Australian science agencies for consumption in adaptation programming in the Pacific Island countries of Kiribati and Solomon Islands. Linking research on geographies of marketization and the neoliberalization of science, I demonstrate that within the climate service movement a focus on usefulness is paired with an emphasis on commercialization. As a result, this case shows the inherent tensions in the climate service model: first, a focus on competition and circulating service products at the expense of collaborative relationships; second, difficulties in negotiating uncertainty; and third contradictions between ‘objective’ and ‘entrepreneurial’ science. In each of these instances, the commercialized mechanisms through which climate services are governed, and the political economic circumstances within which they are produced, magnify rather than ameliorate gaps between science and policy. 相似文献
19.
气候变化背景下山地冰川旅游适应对策研究——以玉龙雪山冰川地质公园为例 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
相对于极地和高纬度冰川, 山地冰川拥有更为优越的地理优势与客源市场条件, 加之山地冰川极高的自然与文化遗产价值, 以及对旅游业带来的巨大经济收益, 历来备受各国商业媒体、政府部门和旅游者的关注. 目前, 全世界已有50多处山地冰川被成功开发为著名旅游目的地. 然而, 全球变暖却严重影响着山地冰川旅游及其周边环境, 按照目前山地冰川的加速消融趋势, 部分山地冰川的自然文化景观质量将明显减弱乃至消失. 另外, 气候变暖也将不可避免地影响着山地生态系统、冰上旅游线路和冰川体验项目. 同时, 冰川消融或消失也将明显导致冰川旅游目的到访人数的下降和地方经济收益的缩减. 基于以上原因, 以玉龙雪山冰川地质公园为例, 分析了玉龙雪山典型冰川旅游资源的消退趋势, 提出了未来玉龙雪山冰川旅游应对全球变暖的响应机制和适应对策, 以期对国内外山地冰川旅游应对气候变暖有所裨益. 相似文献
20.
新疆天山北坡中段河流冰凌洪水特征分析 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
冰凌洪水(冰洪)是新疆天山北坡中段河流冬季的一种特殊洪水,其暴发主要受气温、逆温带范围、冬季河流来水量、冰情冰厚、地势.河道弯曲率和河床条件等多种因素影响."冰洪"具有随机性、规律性和不重复性三种特性,冰凌洪水的峰型类似于暴雨洪水具有陡涨陡落的特点,峰前陡峭而落峰则相对缓一些.以四棵树河为典型流域,对冰凌洪水的成因、发展和运动规律进行研究,并发现冰凌洪水具有"水鼓冰开"现象.对四棵树河1967-2006年冰洪流量的年内、年际分布情况看,20世纪70-80年代由于冬季气候寒冷,是"冰洪"发生最多的时期;自进入20世纪90年代以来由于受全球气候变暖等因素影响,冰凌洪水呈现衰退趋势,气候变暖对冰洪影响非常大. 相似文献