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1.
The role of rainfall in the landslide hazard: the case of the Avigliano urban area (Southern Apennines, Italy) 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Mass movements varying in type and size, some of which are periodically reactivated, affect the urban area of Avigliano. The disturbed and remoulded masses consist of sandy–silty or silty–clayey plastic material interbedded with stone fragments and conglomerate blocks. Five landslides that were markedly liable to rainfall-associated instability phenomena were selected.
The relationships between landslides and rainfall were investigated using a hydrological and statistical model based on long-term series of daily rainfall data. The model was used to determine the return period of cumulative daily rainfall over 1–180 days. The resulting hydrological and statistical findings are discussed with the aim of identifying the rainfall duration most critical to landslides.
The concept of a precipitation threshold was generalized by defining some probability classes of cumulative rainfall. These classes indicate the thresholds beyond which reactivation is likely to occur. The probability classes are defined according to the return period of the cumulative rainfall concomitant with landslide reactivation. 相似文献
2.
Rain-induced landslides are recognized as one of the most catastrophic hazards on hilly terrains. To develop strategies for landslide risk assessment and management, it is necessary to estimate not only the rainfall threshold for the initiation of landslides, but also the likely magnitudes of landslides triggered by a storm of a given intensity. In this study, the frequency distributions of both open hillside landslides and channelized debris flows in Hong Kong are established on the basis of the Enhanced Natural Terrain Landslide Inventory (ENTLI) with 19,763 records in Hong Kong up to 2013. The landslide magnitudes are measured in terms of the number, scar area, volume, or density of landslides. The mean values of the scar areas and volumes are 55.2 m2 and 102.0 m3, respectively, for the open hillside landslides and 91.3 m2 and 166.5 m3, respectively, for the channelized debris flows. Empirical correlations between the numbers, scar areas, and volumes of hillside landslides or channelized debris flows and the maximum rolling rainfall intensities of different periods have been derived. The maximum rolling 4- to 24-h rainfall amounts provide better predictions compared with those with the maximum rolling 1-h rainfall. Maximum rolling rainfall intensity-duration thresholds identifying the likely rainfall conditions that yield natural terrain landslides or debris flows of different magnitudes are also proposed. The initiation rainfall thresholds are identified as 75, 90, 100, 120, 150, 180, and 200 mm for the maximum rolling 1-, 2-, 4-, 6-, 8-, 12-, and 24-h rainfall, respectively. 相似文献
3.
A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures 总被引：22，自引：0，他引：22
It is widely recognised that soil slips and debris flows are triggered by short intense storms. Owing its geologic, geomorphologic and climatic settings, the Piedmont Region (NW Italy) is highly prone to the occurrence of this kind of landslides. In the last two centuries, in fact, a total of 105 severe meteoric events which triggered shallow failures occurred and, of these, 18 events took place from 1990 to 2002. A fair number of rainfall thresholds have been proposed in the literature, defined both on empirical or on physical bases. Empirical thresholds are defined collecting rainfall data for landslide meteoric events and for events without landslides, while physical thresholds are based on numerical models that consider the relation between rainfall, pore pressure and slope stability. The main objective of this paper is the identification of the empirical triggering thresholds for the Piedmont Region. Four meteoric events were selected and analysed (November 4–5, 1994; July 7–8, 1996; April 27–30, 2000; October 13–16, 2000) because they supply a wide range of variation for both rainfall parameters (duration, intensity, cumulative rainfalls) and the number of induced landslides. In the intensity–duration plot, the critical limit is described by the equation: I=19D−0.50 (where I=rainfall intensity expressed in mm/h and D=rainfall duration expressed in hours). Such a limit is traced to envelop 90% of the points on the graph. In the NI–D diagram the triggering thresholds are given by the equations NI=0.76D−0.33 and NI=4.62D−0.79 (where NI=normalised intensity with respect to the annual precipitation, MAP, expressed in %, [(mm/h)/PMA]×100). In the article the different meaning of these thresholds is discussed. Finally, the diagram NI–NCR is proposed; the triggering threshold is given by the expression: NI=−0.09ln[NCR]+0.54 (where NCR is the normalised cumulative critical rainfall, [mm/PMA]×100). The application of the triggering thresholds as a fundamental element in a warning system dedicated to the safeguarding of population in landslide-prone areas is discussed. In detail an operating procedure which is presently being verified and tested in the studied area is described. 相似文献
4.
Rainfall thresholds for prediction of shallow landslides around Chamoli-Joshimath region,Garhwal Himalayas,India 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Majority of landslides in the Indian sub-continent are triggered by rainfall. Several attempts in the global scenario have been made to establish rainfall thresholds in terms of intensity-duration and antecedent rainfall models on global, regional and local scales for the occurrence of landslides. However, in the context of the Indian Himalayas, the rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrences are not yet understood fully. Neither on regional scale nor on local scale, establishing such rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrences in Indian Himalayas has yet been attempted. This paper presents an attempt towards deriving local rainfall thresholds for landslides based on daily rainfall data in and around Chamoli-Joshimath region of the Garhwal Himalayas, India. Around 128 landslides taken place in last 4 years from 2009 to 2012 have been studied to derive rainfall thresholds. Out of 128 landslides, however, rainfall events pertaining to 81 landslides were analysed to yield an empirical intensity–duration threshold for landslide occurrences. The rainfall threshold relationship fitted to the lower boundary of the landslide triggering rainfall events is I?=?1.82 D ?0.23 (I?=?rainfall intensity in millimeters per hour and D?=?duration in hours). It is revealed that for rainfall events of shorter duration (≤24 h) with a rainfall intensity of 0.87 mm/h, the risk of landslide occurrence in this part of the terrain is expected to be high. Also, the role of antecedent rainfall in causing landslides was analysed by considering daily rainfall at failure and different period cumulative rainfall prior to failure considering all 128 landslides. It is observed that a minimum 10-day antecedent rainfall of 55 mm and a 20-day antecedent rainfall of 185 mm are required for the initiation of landslides in this area. These rainfall thresholds presented in this paper may be improved with the hourly rainfall data vis-à-vis landslide occurrences and also data of later years. However, these thresholds may be used in landslide warning systems for this particular region of the Garhwal Himalayas to guide the traffic and provide safety to the tourists travelling along this pilgrim route during monsoon seasons. 相似文献
5.
In order to generate early warning for landslides, it is necessary to address the spatial and temporal aspects of slope failure. The present study deals with the temporal dimension of slope failures taking into account the most widespread and frequent triggering factor, i.e. rainfall, along the National Highway-58 from Rishikesh to Mana in the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Using the post-processed three-hourly rainfall intensity and duration values from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis and the time-tagged landslide records along this route, an intensity–duration (I–D)-based threshold has been derived as I?=?58.7D ?1.12 for the rainfall-triggered landslides. The validation of the I–D threshold has shown 81.6 % accuracy for landslides which occurred in 2005 and 2006. From this result, it can be inferred that landslides in the study area can be initiated by continuous rainfall of over 12 h with about 4-mm/h intensity. Using the mean annual precipitation, a normalized intensity–duration relation of NI?=?0.0612D ?1.17 has also been derived. In order to account for the influence of the antecedent rainfall in slope failure initiation, the daily, 3-day cumulative, and 15- and 30-day antecedent rainfall values associated with landslides had been subjected to binary logistic regression using landslide as the dichotomous dependent variable. The logistic regression retained the daily, 3-day cumulative and 30-day antecedent rainfall values as significant predictors influencing slope failure. This model has been validated through receiver operating characteristic curve analysis using a set of samples which had not been used in the model building; an accuracy of 95.1 % has been obtained. Cross-validation of I–D-based thresholding and antecedent rainfall-based probability estimation with slope failure initiation shows 81.9 % conformity between the two in correctly predicting slope stability. Using the I–D-based threshold and the antecedent rainfall-based regression model, early warning can be generated for moderate to high landslide-susceptible areas (which can be delineated using spatial integration of preconditioning factors). Temporal predictions where both the methods converge indicate higher chances of slope failures for areas predisposed to instability due to unfavourable geo-environmental and topographic parameters and qualify for enhanced slope failure warning. This method can be verified for further rainfall seasons and can also be refined progressively with finer resolutions (spatial and temporal) of rainfall intensity and multiple rain gauge stations covering a larger spatial extent. 相似文献
6.
The study area is located in Three Gorges Reservoir region, China. Over 200 landslides have been monitored over a number of
years with their behavior being compared to the effective rainfall database for the study area. Analysis of the available
data indicates that the occurrences of landslides in this region are controlled by rainfall, whose intensity and rainfall
processes are the most important dynamic factors in determining the stability of slopes. Therefore, the relationship between
rainfall and the movement of typical landslides has been specifically analyzed for the Xintan landslides and the large Huangya
landslide by using the loading/unloading response ratio parameter of rainfall. The result of this study indicates that the
mutation of the loading/unloading response ratio of rainfall of the Xintan landslide and the large Huangya landslide in the
Three Gorges Reservoir region, China occurred just before their destabilization, which shows that the loading/unloading response
ratio of rainfall and its changing feature can be taken as a precursor for the landslides induced by rainfall. 相似文献
7.
Examination of influences of rainfall patterns on shallow landslides due to dissipation of matric suction 总被引：5，自引：4，他引：1
The influences of rainfall patterns on shallow landslides due to the dissipation of matric suction are examined in this study.
Four representative rainfall patterns including the uniform, advanced, intermediated, and delayed rainfalls are adopted. The
results show that not only the occurrence of shallow landslides but also the failure depth and the time of failure are affected
by the rainfall pattern. The different rainfall patterns seem to have the same minimum landslide-triggering rainfall amount.
There is a rainfall duration threshold for landslide occurrence for a rainfall event with larger than the minimum landslide-triggering
rainfall amount. For each rainfall pattern, the rainfall duration threshold for landslide occurrence decreases to constant
with the increase of rainfall amount. The uniform rainfall has the least rainfall duration threshold for landslide occurrence,
followed by the advanced rainfall, and then the intermediated rainfall. For each rainfall pattern, the failure depths and
the times of failure from the same amount of rainfall with different durations could be largely different. In addition, the
differences of the failure depths and the times of failure between various rainfall patterns with the same amount and duration
of rainfall could be also significant. The failure depth and the time of failure, as compared with the occurrence of shallow
landslides, are more sensitive to the rainfall condition. In other words, in comparison with the evaluation of the occurrence
of shallow landslides, it needs more accurate rainfall prediction to achieve reliable estimations of the failure depth and
the time of failure. 相似文献
8.
Rainfall-induced landslides in Hulu Kelang area, Malaysia 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
Hulu Kelang is known as one of the most landslide-prone areas in Malaysia. The area has been constantly hit by landslide hazards since 1990s. This paper provides an insight into the mechanism of rainfall-induced landslide in the Hulu Kelang area. Rainfall patterns prior to the occurrences of five selected case studies were first analyzed. The results showed that daily rainfall information is insufficient for predicting landslides in the area. Rainfalls of longer durations, i.e., 3–30 days prior to the landslides should be incorporated into the prediction model. Numerical simulations on a selected case study demonstrated that both matric suction and factor of safety decreased steadily over time until they reached the lowest values on the day of landslide occurrence. Redistribution of infiltrated rainwater in the soil mass could be a reason for the slow response of failure mechanism to rainfall. Based on 21 rainfall-induced landslides that had occurred in the area, three rainfall thresholds were developed as attempts to predict the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslide. The rainfall intensity–duration threshold developed based on the local rainfall conditions provided a reasonably good prediction to the landslide occurrence. The cumulative 3- versus 30-day antecedent precipitation index threshold chart was capable of giving the most reliable prediction with the limiting threshold line for major landslide yielded a reliability of 97.6 %. 相似文献
9.
Chien-Yuan Chen 《Landslides》2016,13(1):153-164
Typhoon Morakot brought extreme rainfall and initiated numerous landslides and debris flows in southern Taiwan in August of 2009. The purpose of this study is to identify the extreme rainfall-induced landslide frequency-area distribution in the Laonong River Basin in southern Taiwan and debris flow-initiated conditions under rainfall. Results of the analysis show that debris flows were initiated under high cumulative rainfall and long rainfall duration or high rainfall intensity. The relationship of mean rainfall intensity and duration threshold could reflect debris flow initiation characteristics under high rainfall intensity in short rainfall duration conditions. The relationship of cumulative rainfall and duration threshold could reflect debris flow initiation characteristics under high cumulative rainfall in long rainfall duration. Defining rainfall events by estimating rainfall parameters with different methodologies could reveal variations among intermittent rainfall events for the benefit of issuing debris flow warnings. The exponent of landslide frequency-area distribution induced by Typhoon Morakot is lower than that induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake. The lower exponent of landslide frequency-area distribution can be attributed to the transportation and deposition areas of debris flow that are included in the landslide area. Climate change induced high rainfall intensity and long duration of precipitation, for example, Typhoon Morakot brought increased frequency of debris flow and created difficulty in issuing warnings from rainfall monitoring. 相似文献
10.
以湖南省张家界市桑植县为研究区,在全面分析近30年降雨及滑坡数据的基础上,对滑坡及滑坡数量与降雨因子的关系开展了统计分析研究。首先确定了区域最佳有效降雨衰减系数,同时分别按滑坡规模、坡度、厚度大小统计了降雨与历史滑坡信息,得出有效降雨强度（I）与持续时间（D）散点图,由此确定各不同概率下诱发滑坡的区域有效降雨强度阈值,并进行了滑坡灾害危险性等级划分。进而,利用部分样本数据进行逻辑回归分析,得到了该研究区的滑坡发生概率预测方程,并给出了降雨强度临界值定量表达式,最后选用实际降雨诱发滑坡事件与未诱发滑坡事件进行对比验证。结果表明,文章所建立的滑坡预测模型准确性较高,预测情况与实际情况比较吻合。 相似文献
11.
Landslides associated with the colluvial soils overlying the Natal Group in the greater Durban region of Natal, South Africa 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
In the last 25 years, many of the landslides that have occurred in the greater Durban region have been associated with the
colluvial soils overlying the Natal Group, most of which occurred during the very heavy rains of September 1987. Subsequently,
a very heavy rainfall event in February 1999 also gave rise to landslides. In fact, prior to 1987 these colluvial soils were
considered relatively stable. A critical precipitation coefficient has been developed which included the cumulative precipitation
up to a landslide event. In addition, an attempt has been made to establish a threshold value for triggering of landslides
for the colluvial soils from a study of pluviometric data. The results indicate that when a rainfall event exceeds 12% of
the mean annual rainfall, small-scale landslides are likely to occur. When a rainfall event is greater than 16% of the mean
annual rainfall, a moderate number of landslides take place. Major landslides are associated with rainfall events with intensities
in excess of 20% of the mean annual precipitation. An example of a landslide which occurred on the Natal Group due to construction
operations is provided, as well as an account of those which took place during September 1987. In the latter case, most of
the slides took the form of mudflows and were responsible for some of the worst damage which has occurred in the Durban region.
The colluvial soils involved were relatively thin and therefore became quickly saturated by the heavy rainfall. In some places
the situation was further aggravated by liquefaction of the soils.
Received: 15 June 1999 · Accepted: 30 August 1999 相似文献
12.
Rainfall is an important factor to trigger the slope failure such as landslides and debris flows. First, the relationship between rainfall duration with the initiation of debris flow and rainfall intensity was mainly studied by the series tests in a box model. Then, the rainfall induced responses of slopes and the initiation of slope failure were simulated by using the software FLAC2D based on the soil parameters in Weijia Gully, Beichuan County, Sichuan Province. The effects of the slope angle, rainfall intensity, soil parameters on the development of the stress, and pore pressure in the soil of the slope were analyzed. It indicates that largest displacements in the slope are mainly located near the toe. With the increase of the rainfall intensity, the effective stress in the slope decreases and the displacement increases. 相似文献
13.
Domenico Caracciolo Elisa Arnone Francesco Lo Conti Leonardo Valerio Noto 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(5):222
Critical rainfall thresholds for landslides are powerful tools for preventing landslide hazard. The thresholds are commonly estimated empirically starting from rainfall events that triggered landslides in the past. The creation of the appropriate rainfall–landslide database is one of the main efforts in this approach. In fact, an accurate agreement between the landslide and rainfall information, in terms of location and timing, is essential in order to correctly estimate the rainfall–landslide relationships. A further issue is taking into account the average moisture conditions prior the triggering event, which reasonably may be crucial in determining the sufficient amount of precipitation. In this context, the aim of this paper is exploiting historical landslide and rainfall data in a spatial database for the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Sicily, southern Italy. The hourly rainfall events that caused landslides occurred in the twentieth century were specifically identified and reconstructed. A procedure was proposed to automatically convert rain guages charts recorded on paper tape into digital format and then to provide the cumulative rainfall hyetograph in digital format. This procedure is based on a segmentation followed by signal recognition techniques which allow to digitalize and to recognize the hyetograph automatically. The role of rainfall prior to the landslide events was taken into account by including in the analysis the rainfall occurred 5, 15 and 30 days before each landslide. Finally, cumulated rainfall duration thresholds for different exceedance probability levels were determined. The obtained thresholds resulted in agreement with the regional curves proposed by other authors for the same area; antecedent rainfall turned out to be particularly important in triggering landslides. 相似文献
14.
The determination of statistical and deterministic hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds 总被引：25，自引：0，他引：25
Mark T. J. Terlien 《Environmental Geology》1998,35(2-3):124-130
Hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds separate combinations of daily and antecedent rainfall or of rainfall intensity
and duration that triggered landslides from those that failed to trigger landslides. They are required for the development
of landslide early warning systems. When a large data set on rainfall and landslide occurrence is available, hydrological
triggering thresholds are determined in a statistical way. When the data on landslide occurrence is limited, deterministic
models have to be used. For shallow landslides directly triggered by percolating rainfall, triggering thresholds can be established
by means of one-dimensional hydrological models linked to the infinite slope model. In the case of relatively deep landslides
located in topographic hollows and triggered by a slow accumulation of water at the soil-bedrock contact, simple correlations
between landslide occurrence and rainfall can no longer be established. Therefore real-time failure probabilities have to
be determined using hydrological catchment models in combination with the infinite slope model.
Received: 15 October 1997 · Accepted: 25 June 1997 相似文献
15.
16.
滑坡是池州最严重的地质灾害.滑坡的形成除与地质条件有关外,降水和人类工程活动是很重要的诱发因素.通过分析大量的滑坡资料和气象(雨量)数据,研究和探讨了滑坡的发生与降水特征之间的关系,发现滑坡的发生与近3天内的降水强度、过程降水总雨量、降水的持续时间等关系十分密切.结合国内邻近省区的分析结论,建立了一个用日综合雨量预测滑坡的数学统计模型,并对池州1995、1998、1999年3次滑坡等重大突发性地质灾害过程进行了检验,效果良好. 相似文献
17.
镇江地区降雨导致滑坡规律统计分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
江苏镇江地区地属丘陵地带,近年来由于气候变化,调查资料显示镇江地区短时强降雨或持续时间较长的降雨经常
诱发大量浅层滑坡,降雨是区内滑坡主要影响因素,造成了较大的经济损失。文章通过对镇江地区300多个山体边坡进行
详细现场环境地质调查,结合收集气象资料,对该地区的滑坡与降雨相关参数的关系进行统计分析,得到了降雨量与降雨
持续时间对滑坡数量的变化关系。确定了镇江地区降雨阈值I-D 曲线,并将分析结果与其他地区进行了对比分析,研究成
果可为镇江地区滑坡治理和预警预报提供依据。 相似文献
18.
Extreme and/or prolonged rainfall events frequently cause landslides in many parts of the world. In this study, infiltration of rainfall into an unsaturated soil slope and triggering of landslides is studied through laboratory model (flume) tests, with the goal of obtaining the triggering rainfall intensity–duration (I–D) threshold. Flume tests with fine sand at two different relative densities (34 and 48%) and at slope angle of 56.5° are prepared, and rainfall (intensity in the range of 18 to 64 mm/h) is applied via a mist sprinkler system to trigger landslides. Soil water characteristic curve and hydraulic conductivity function of the fine sand are also presented. In flume tests, suction in the soil is measured with tensiometers, the progress of wetting front with time and deformations in the soil are also measured. Some of the findings of this study are: for the fine sand used in this study (a) the failure mechanism is infinite-slope type (mostly translational), and the failure surface is generally coincident with the wetting front or is in its vicinity, (b) the deformations leading to a landslide occurred abruptly, (c) both relatively high-intensity–short-duration rainfalls and relatively low-intensity–long duration rainfalls triggered landslides, (d) the shape of the I–D threshold is demonstrated to be a bilinear relation in log intensity–log duration plot, (e) below a certain rainfall intensity landslides are not triggered, (f) the effect of relative density of the soil on the I–D threshold is demonstrated by physical laboratory tests (as the relative density of the soil increases, the triggering rainfall intensity–duration threshold moves to larger rainfall events). The results of this study could be useful for accurate numerical modeling of rainfall-triggered landslides. 相似文献
19.
Landslides triggered by the 23 November 2000 rainfall event in the Imperia Province, Western Liguria, Italy 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Fausto Guzzetti Mauro Cardinali Paola Reichenbach Francesco Cipolla Claudio Sebastiani Mirco Galli Paola Salvati 《Engineering Geology》2004,73(3-4):229-245
From mid-October to 22 November 2000, the western Liguria Region of Italy experienced prolonged and intense rainfall, with cumulative values exceeding 1000 mm in 45 days. The severe rainfall sequence ended on November 23 with a high-intensity storm that dumped more than 180 mm of rain in 24 h. The high-intensity event caused flooding and triggered more than 1000 soils slips and debris flows and a few large, complex landslides. Slope failures caused three fatalities and severe damage to roads, private homes, and agriculture. Large (1:13,000) and very large (1:5000) scale colour aerial photographs were taken 45 days after the event over the areas most affected by the landslides. Through the interpretation of the 334 photographs covering an area of 500 km2, we prepared a landslide inventory map that shows 1204 landslides, for a total landslide area of 1.6 km2. We identified the rainfall conditions that triggered landslides in the Armea valley using cumulative- and continuous-rainfall data, combined with detailed information on the time of landslide occurrence. Landslide activity initiated 8 to 10 h after the beginning of the storm, and the most abundant activity occurred in response to rainfall intensities of 8 to 10 mm per hour. For the Ceriana Municipality, an area where the landslides were numerous in November 2000, we also collected information about a historical event that occurred on 8–11 December 1910 and triggered abundant landslides resulting in severe economic damage. A comparison of the damage caused by the historical and the recent landslide events indicated that damage caused by the 1910 historical event was more diffused but less costly than the damage caused by the 2000 event. 相似文献
20.
提高降雨型滑坡危险性预警精度和空间辨识度具有重要意义.以江西宁都县1980—2001年156个降雨型滑坡为例,首先基于传统的EE-D（early effective rainfall-rainfall duration）阈值法计算不同降雨诱发滑坡的时间概率级别;然后以各级别临界降雨阈值曲线对应的时间概率为因变量,并以对应的前期有效降雨量（early effective rainfall,EE）和降雨历时（D）为自变量,采用逻辑回归拟合出上述因变量与自变量之间的非线性关系,得到降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值;之后对比C5.0决策树和多层感知器的滑坡易发性预测性能;最后利用降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值与易发性图相耦合以实现连续概率滑坡危险性预警.结果显示:（1）宁都降雨型滑坡连续概率值的逻辑回归方程为1/P=1+e4.062+0.747 4×D-0.079 44×EE,其拟合优度为0.983;（2）2002—2003年的20处用于连续概率阈值测试的降雨型滑坡大都落在连续概率值大于0.7的区域,只有4处落在小于0.7的区域;（3）C5.0决策树预测滑坡易发性的精度显著高于多层感知器;（4）近5年的4次降雨型滑坡的连续概率危险性值都在0.8以上,且高和极高预警区的面积较传统滑坡危险性分区更小.可见连续概率滑坡危险性预警法相较于传统危险性分区法具有更高的预警精度和空间辨识度,且通过叠加滑坡易发性图及其临界降雨阈值可开展实时滑坡危险性预警制图. 相似文献