共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 203 毫秒
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基于Delft3D模型建立了中国渤、黄海风暴潮数值模型,选取1979—2020年影响该海域的93场风暴过程（包括台风、寒潮和温带气旋）,模拟了所产生的风暴增水和风暴潮总水位。采用泊松—皮尔逊复合极值分布理论,推算了渤、黄海对应不同重现期的极值水位;通过数值试验,对天文潮—风暴潮非线性相互作用对极值水位的贡献进行了量化分析。研究结果表明,渤海的莱州湾、渤海湾,以及黄海的江华湾、西朝鲜湾风暴增水最大,其中江华湾北侧和渤海湾西南侧的百年一遇风暴增水可达4 m;天文潮—风暴潮非线性相互作用在潮差较大、水深较浅的河口、湾顶区域更为显著,与耦合模型结果相比,非线性作用使极值水位值偏小,天文潮、风暴潮增水的线性叠加可显著高估极值水位,高估的幅值可达0.5~0.8 m。考虑重现期极值水位是海岸灾害防护工程的关键设计参数之一,对海岸构筑物的安全和建造成本影响极大,应重视天文潮—风暴潮非线性相互作用对重现期水位的影响。 相似文献
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鉴于严重危及上海的洪水水位主要由其近海的台风暴潮所致,本文以长江口及浙北近海的台风增水的数值模型为基础,首先对吴淞8114号台风增水进行数值模拟,确定适当的模拟技术.然后合理地设计出可能发生的假想台风再输入数值模型,计算出可能发生的最大台风增水.最后根据对实际资料中风暴湖与天文潮相互耦合现象的分析,给出吴淞可能的最大高潮位,从而为上海市防洪工程提供论证或设计依据. 相似文献
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采用三角形网格海洋模式ADCIRC-2DDI和海浪模式SWAN双向耦合模式,建立了苏北辐射沙洲海域高精度水动力模型,用以研究该海域天文潮-风暴潮-海浪相互作用。以2012年15号台风"布拉万"为例,分别采用WRF气象模型后报风场和台风模型风场进行台风期间水位和波浪场的数值模拟,与实测资料的对比结果显示模型较准确地模拟出了"布拉万"台风期间的风暴增水与海浪过程,但模拟的极值增水和二次增水时间较实测资料提前了3 h左右。对"布拉万"台风期间模拟结果的分析表明:在浅滩及浅滩前沿水域,水位和海流对海浪模拟结果具有显著影响,是否耦合计算的有效波高差异可达1 m以上;波浪对水位的影响具有空间差异,在水深大于15 m的区域,波浪引起的水位变化小于5 cm,在浅滩区域,波浪引起的水位变化在4～10 cm,是否考虑波浪耦合对漫滩区域的模拟结果影响较大,进行浅滩及浅滩前沿的水动力计算,有必要考虑浪流耦合过程。 相似文献
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风暴增水随机分析的过阈法及其统计计算模式 总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2
以青岛大港观测站 32年增水过程为例 ,探讨风暴增水工程设计参数的频率分析法 ,进行了不同阈值序列及各种理论线型的分布拟合。首次提出 Poisson- Pearson- III型分布模式 ,并将其用于工程计算 :对比分析 POT法与年极值法的计算结果 ;给出青岛大港站风暴增水多年一遇设计值 ,为进一步科学地确定海岸防潮工程设计水位奠定了基础。 相似文献
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上海沿岸天文潮与风暴潮非线性相互作用的数值研究 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
运用二维非线性风暴潮，天文潮和联合水位模型８次不同路径的热带气旋引起的上海地区天文潮与风暴潮的非线性相互作用进行了数值研究，讨论了天文潮气与风暴潮非线性相互作用引起的增水特征，分析了控制方程中各非线性项对天文潮与风暴晨线性相互作用引起水位变化的贡献，研究表明，考虑天文潮与风暴的非线性相互作用后，使风暴潮和水位的数值模拟结果得到了改善，非线性底摩擦在控制天文潮和风暴潮非线性相互作用中起重要的作用。而 相似文献
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基于中国气象局台风最佳路径数据集和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)风场再分析资料,遴选出1979—2019年影响上海的241场历史台风事件。采用ADCIRC风暴潮模型对241场历史台风所引起的风暴潮过程进行了模拟,计算得到了上海沿海历史风暴增水数据集,由此对上海沿海代表站点的历史风暴增水进行了特征分析。结果表明,崇西闸、堡镇、吴淞口、高桥、芦潮港、金山嘴、洋山港站和绿华山等8个代表站历史最大增水在1.38~2.58 m之间,各站最大增水小于1 m的累积频率均超过0.9。尽管各站最大增水时间序列未通过Mann Kendall趋势性检验,但吴淞口站的年最高水位却呈现出显著的增加趋势,这可能与上游径流、天文潮、风暴潮和海平面变化等因素的综合影响有关。 相似文献
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The hydrodynamic response of the York River estuary to Tropical Cyclone Isabel, 2003 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Hurricane Isabel made landfall along the North Carolina coast on September 18, 2003 (UTC 17:00) and the storm surge exceeded 2.0 m in many areas of the Chesapeake Bay and in the York River estuary. River flooding occurred subsequently, and the peak river discharge reached 317 and 104 m3 s−1 in the Pamunkey and Mattaponi rivers, respectively. The York River estuary experienced both storm surge and river flooding during the event and the estuary dynamics changed dramatically. This study investigates the hydrodynamics of the York River estuary in response to the storm surge and high river inflows. A three-dimensional model was used to investigate the changes of estuarine stratification, longitudinal circulation, salt flux mechanisms, and the recovery time required for the estuary to return to its naturally evolved condition without the storm. Results show that the salt flux was mainly caused by advection, which was induced by the barotropic gradient during the storm event. The net salt flux increased by a factor of 30 during the rise of the storm surge. However, the large amount of salt transported into the estuary was quickly transported out of the estuary as the barotropic gradient reversed during the descent of the storm surge. Subsequent high freshwater inflow influenced the estuarine circulation substantially. The estuary changed from a partially mixed estuary to a very stratified estuary for a prolonged period. The model results show that it will take about 4 months for the estuary to recover to its naturally evolved salinity distribution after the impacts of the storm surge and freshwater pulse. 相似文献
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胶州湾高分辨率三维风暴潮漫滩数值模拟 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于海表气压项改进的FVCOM(Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model)海洋模式,研发胶州湾高分辨率三维风暴潮漫滩数值模式(JS-FVCOM).利用 JS-FVCOM 模式通过对天文潮、台风强度和径流3要素的不同组合,共设计了5个试验,分别进行风暴潮漫滩模拟实验.分析各试验结果得到如下结论:(1)随着台风最大风速的增加,风暴潮增水迅速增加,当综合水位超过防潮堤高程后增水速度明显减慢.海水淹没范围和淹没深度受综合水位超防潮堤高程时间影响明显.(2)在入海河流的河口区,当洪水位与高潮位相遇时,由于高潮位的顶托作用,洪水下泄不畅,造成综合水位上升明显,极易发生海水漫溢现象.JS-FVCOM 的模拟结果清楚地再现了海水漫堤的淹没过程,可为紧急情况下的人员疏散提供科学的基础数据. 相似文献
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Tropical Cyclone Isabel of 2003 generated large storm surge, strong waves, and subsequent river flooding in the York River Estuary, USA during its passage across the Chesapeake Bay region. A 3D model was used to investigate the changes of sediment concentration, sediment flux, and the recovery time of the York River Estuary to its naturally evolved condition without the storm. The results showed that two sediment concentration peaks appeared during the storm event. The first one was induced by the large upstream flow and waves during the storm surge rising period, and the later one was caused by the strong downstream flow during the descent of the storm surge. The advection, which was induced by the barotropic gradient, dominated the sediment flux during the storm event. The sediment fluxes increased by a factor of 100 during the rise and descent of the storm surge. A large amount of sediment that was transported into the estuary and eroded from the seabed during the rising of the storm surge was quickly transported out of the estuary during the descent of the storm surge. Waves played a key role in stirring the seabed and increasing the sediment concentration during the storm. Subsequent high freshwater inflow changed the sediment loading and hydrodynamics in the estuary, and thus, influenced the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) dynamics profoundly. The ETM moved downstream with the river flooding initially and returned upstream with the waning of river flooding and the re-establishment of gravitational circulation. The effect of river flooding on sediment concentration varied spatially and depended on the changes of ETM locations and vertical mixing. The model results suggest that a large amount of sediment was transported out of the estuary during the storm event and the subsequent river flooding had a larger impact on recovery time of the estuary. 相似文献
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Open coast storm surge water levels consist of a wind shear forcing component generally referred to as wind setup; a wave setup component caused by wind-induced waves transferring momentum to the water column; an atmospheric pressure head component due to the atmospheric pressure deficit over the spatial extent of the storm system; a Coriolis-forced component due to effects of the rotation of the earth acting on the wind-driven alongshore current at the coast; and, if astronomical tides are present, an astronomical tide component. Astronomical tide is considered to be predictable and, therefore, not a meteorological driven component of storm surge although there may be interaction between the tide and meteorological driven water levels. Typically the most important component of storm surge on the US East Coast and Gulf of Mexico shorelines is the wind setup component. The importance of inland flooding due to the wind setup component of storm surge is considered herein with special reference to the effect of subaerial slope on inland flooding where three different linear slopes are considered and storm surge is calculated for the region above still water level, using an analytic solution. The present study findings show that the inland storm surge from the wind setup component can be of considerable importance and lead to significantly higher storm surges than found for storm surge at the still water level intersection of the beach/land. It is shown that mild slopes can lead to very high water levels at the land–water interface (i.e. above the still water level intersection of the beach). 相似文献
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Neural network prediction of a storm surge 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
The occurrence of storm surge does not only destroy the resident's lives, but also cause the severe flooding in coastal areas. Therefore, accurate prediction of storm surge is an important task during the coming typhoon. Conventional numerical methods and experienced methods for storm surge prediction have been developed in the past, but it is still a complex ocean engineering problem which many factors, including the central pressure of typhoon, the speed of the typhoon, the heavy rainfall, coastal topography and local features influence the variation of storm surge. In fact, this problem is still a complex nonlinear relationship that can not solved efficiently by these two methods. Therefore, this paper presents an application of the neural network for forecasting the storm surge. The original data of Jiangjyun station in Taiwan will be used to test the performance of the present model. The results indicate that the neural network can be efficiently forecasted storm surge using the four input factors, including the wind velocity, wind direction, pressure and harmonic analysis tidal level. 相似文献
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建立东海-黄海-渤海大范围风暴潮二维数学模型,对9216台风风暴潮过程进行模拟,分析渤海湾造陆工程前后风暴潮增水对海河流域主要河口(海河口、永定新河口和独流减河口)闸下区域最高潮位的影响,并探讨有效降低河口闸下通道内风暴潮潮位的开发方式。研究表明:渤海湾围填海工程实施后,闸下通道内维持自然地形时,通道内最高潮位高于工程前;闸下通道实施地形开挖后,通道内最高潮位依然高于工程前,但较自然地形条件下抬高幅值有所减小。闸下通道结合开发建设港池航道等工程实施地形开挖,使得通道内水深增加,可降低通道内风暴潮增水幅度。 相似文献
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以实验室二维温带风暴潮数值模型为基础,综合考虑海洋潮波动力与风应力联合作用,建立温带风暴潮三维数值计算模型.模型从推导三维风暴潮基本控制方程出发,并应用交替方向隐格式(ADI)方法对方程进行离散求解.对于浅水动边界,模型采取局部深槽、缩小水域的活动边界处理方法.利用拟三维数值计算方法,并提出了非平面水深等分模式和平面等水深分布模式,应用这两种计算模式分别对渤海湾2009年5月8～10日发生的风暴潮过程进行了数值模拟.将风暴潮位计算结果和增水位计算结果与塘沽验潮站的实际观测数值进行对比验证,结果显示受风应力与潮波联合作用的风暴潮位和增水位与实测数据吻合良好;通过比较得到了平面等水深分布模式的计算成果要比非平面水深等分模式的计算成果更接近观测资料的结论,为风暴潮预报提供了理论依据. 相似文献
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A numerical study on the impact of tidal waves on the storm surge in the north of Liaodong Bay 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
KONG Xiangpeng 《海洋学报(英文版)》2014,33(1):35-41
A storm surge is an abnormal sharp rise or fall in the seawater level produced by the strong wind and low pressure field of an approaching storm system.A storm tide is a water level rise or fall caused by the combined effect of the storm surge and an astronomical tide.The storm surge depends on many factors,such as the tracks of typhoon movement,the intensity of typhoon,the topography of sea area,the amplitude of tidal wave,the period during which the storm surge couples with the tidal wave.When coupling with different parts of a tidal wave,the storm surges caused by a typhoon vary widely.The variation of the storm surges is studied.An once-in-a-century storm surge was caused by Typhoon 7203 at Huludao Port in the north of the Liaodong Bay from July 26th to 27th,1972.The maximum storm surge is about 1.90 m.The wind field and pressure field used in numerical simulations in the research were derived from the historical data of the Typhoon 7203 from July 23rd to 28th,1972.DHI Mike21 is used as the software tools.The whole Bohai Sea is defined as the computational domain.The numerical simulation models are forced with sea levels at water boundaries,that is the tide along the Bohai Straits from July 18th to 29th（2012）.The tide wave and the storm tides caused by the wind field and pressure field mentioned above are calculated in the numerical simulations.The coupling processes of storm surges and tidal waves are simulated in the following way.The first simulation start date and time are 00：00 July 18th,2012; the second simulation start date and time are 03：00 July 18th,2012.There is a three-hour lag between the start date and time of the simulation and that of the former one,the last simulation start date and time are 00：00 July 25th,2012.All the simulations have a same duration of 5 days,which is same as the time length of typhoon data.With the first day and the second day simulation output,which is affected by the initial field,being ignored,only the 3rd to 5th day simulation results are used to study the rules of the storm surges in the north of the Liaodong Bay.In total,57 cases are calculated and analyzed,including the coupling effects between the storm surge and a tidal wave during different tidal durations and on different tidal levels.Based on the results of the 57 numerical examples,the following conclusions are obtained：For the same location,the maximum storm surges are determined by the primary vibration（the storm tide keeps rising quickly） duration and tidal duration.If the primary vibration duration is a part of the flood tidal duration,the maximum storm surge is lower（1.01,1.05 and 1.37 m at the Huludao Port,the Daling Estuary and the Liaohe Estuary respectively）.If the primary vibration duration is a part of the ebb tidal duration,the maximum storm surge is higher（1.92,2.05 and 2.80 m at the Huludao Port,the Daling Estuary and the Liaohe Estuary respectively）.In the mean time,the sea level restrains the growth of storm surges.The hour of the highest storm tide has a margin of error of plus or minus 80 min,comparing the high water hour of the astronomical tide,in the north of the Liaodong Bay. 相似文献
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本文研究了由2020年12月29日至31日强冷锋引起的影响洋山港海域的温带风暴潮过程。通过气象观测数据分析了其天气过程, 并利用FVCOM-SWAVE波浪-风暴潮耦合模式对该过程进行了高分辨率的数值模拟, 同时结合潮位站及浮标站观测数据对模拟结果进行了验证, 分析模拟了波浪、潮流、风暴增减水特征。结果发现, 该次冷锋型温带风暴潮过程主要表现为先短时风暴增水后出现长时间风暴减水的特征, 最大风暴减水可达65~70cm, 其主要诱因包括研究海域气压的快速升高并维持、长时间持续的偏北大风及波流相互作用。相关敏感试验研究了3种因子对风暴增减水位的贡献大小, 发现风暴增水峰值期间风场贡献占比约为90%, 海平面气压场约为5%; 风暴减水峰值期间, 海平面气压场的贡献度约占55%, 风场约占40%, 而波浪的贡献均不足10%。洋山港航道内风暴期间潮流流速最大可达到2.6~2.8m•s-1, 落潮时为东南向离岸潮流, 涨潮时为西至西北方向的外海潮波传入潮流; 洋山港航道潮流始终是东南或西北向, 此处流速辐合, 是洋山海域流速最高的区域。 相似文献
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热带气旋影响下上海港水位数值模拟和预报方法研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于二维台风风暴潮动力－数值模式和二维天文潮动力－数值模式，本文提出了一个包含天文潮和风暴潮非线性相互作用的综合水位数值模拟和数值预报方法。该方法经对１９５１－１９８６年间对上海港影响较大的８场台风期间的综合水位进行数值模拟，结果令人满意。运用该方法对９０１５号台风期间的上海港综合水位的试报和后报结果比较表明，水位误差主要来自台风路径和强度的预报而不是水位预报方法本身。所提出的适用于上海港水位数值 相似文献