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1.
—?A set of procedures is described for estimating network-averaged teleseismic P-wave spectra for underground nuclear explosions and for analytically inverting these spectra to obtain estimates of m b /yield relations and individual yields for explosions at previously uncalibrated test sites. These procedures are then applied to the analyses of explosions at the former Soviet test sites at Shagan River, Degelen Mountain, Novaya Zemlya and Azgir, as well as at the French Sahara, U.S. Amchitka and Chinese Lop Nor test sites. It is demonstrated that the resulting seismic estimates of explosion yield and m b /yield relations are remarkably consistent with a variety of other available information for a number of these test sites. These results lead us to conclude that the network-averaged teleseismic P-wave spectra provide considerably more diagnostic information regarding the explosion seismic source than do the corresponding narrowband magnitude measures such as m b , M s and m b (L g ), and, therefore, that they are to be preferred for applications to seismic yield estimation for explosions at previously uncalibrated test sites.  相似文献   

2.
—?A comparison of regional and teleseismic log rms (root-mean-square) L g amplitude measurements have been made for 14 underground nuclear explosions from the East Kazakh test site recorded both by the BRV (Borovoye) station in Kazakhstan and the GRF (Gräfenberg) array in Germany. The log rms L g amplitudes observed at the BRV regional station at a distance of 690?km and at the teleseismic GRF array at a distance exceeding 4700?km show very similar relative values (standard deviation 0.048 magnitude units) for underground explosions of different sizes at the Shagan River test site. This result as well as the comparison of BRV rms L g magnitudes (which were calculated from the log rms amplitudes using an appropriate calibration) with magnitude determinations for P waves of global seismic networks (standard deviation 0.054 magnitude units) point to a high precision in estimating the relative source sizes of explosions from L g-based single station data. Similar results were also obtained by other investigators (Patton, 1988; Ringdal et?al., 1992) using L g data from different stations at different distances.¶Additionally, GRF log rms L g and P-coda amplitude measurements were made for a larger data set from Novaya Zemlya and East Kazakh explosions, which were supplemented with m b (L g) amplitude measurements using a modified version of Nuttli's (1973, 1986a) method. From this test of the relative performance of the three different magnitude scales, it was found that the L g and P-coda based magnitudes performed equally well, whereas the modified Nuttli m b (L g) magnitudes show greater scatter when compared to the worldwide m b reference magnitudes. Whether this result indicates that the rms amplitude measurements are superior to the zero-to-peak amplitude measurement of a single cycle used for the modified Nuttli method, however, cannot be finally assessed, since the calculated m b (L g) magnitudes are only preliminary until appropriate attenuation corrections are available for the specific path to GRF.  相似文献   

3.
—?Data sets of m b (Pn) and m b (Lg) measurements are presented for three continental regions in order to investigate scaling relationships with moment magnitude M w and event discrimination at small magnitudes. Compilations of published measurements are provided for eastern North American and central Asian earthquakes, and new measurements are reported for earthquakes located in western United States. Statistical tests on M w :m b relationships show that the m b (Lg) scale of Nuttli (1973) is transportable between tectonic regions, and a single, unified M w :m b (Lg) relationship satisfies observations for M w ～4.2–6.5 in all regions. A unified relationship is also developed for nuclear explosions detonated at the Nevada Test Site and test sites of the former Soviet Union. Regional m b for explosions scale at higher rates than for earthquakes, and of significance is the finding that m b (Pn) for explosions scales at a higher rate than m b (Lg). A model is proposed where differences in scaling rates are related to effects of spectral overshoot and near-field Rg scattering on the generation of Pn and Lg waves by explosions. For earthquakes, m b (Pn) and m b (Lg) scale similarly, showing rates near 1.0 or 2/3?·?log10 M o (seismic moment).¶M w :m b (Lg) scaling results are converted to unified M s :m b (Lg) relationships using scaling laws between log M o and M s . For earthquakes with M s greater than 3.0, the scaling rate is 0.69?·?M s , which is the same as it is for nuclear explosions if M s is proportional to 1.12?·?log M o, as determined by NTS observations. Thus, earthquake and explosion populations are parallel and separated by 0.68 m b units for large events. For small events (M s ?M s :m b (Lg) plots for stable and tectonic regions, respectively. While the scaling rate for explosions is ～0.69, this value is uncertain due to paucity of M o observations at small yields. Measurements of [m b (P)???m b (Lg)] for earthquakes in the western United States have an average value of ?0.33?±?.03 m b units, in good agreement with Nuttli's estimate of m b bias for NTS. This result suggests that Nuttli's method for estimating test site bias can be extended to earthquakes to make estimates of bias on regional scales. In addition, a new approach for quick assessments of regional bias is proposed where M s :m b (P) observations are compared with M s :m b (Lg) relationships. Catalog M s :m b (P) data suggest that m b bias is significant for tectonic regions of southern Asia, averaging about ?0.4 m b units.  相似文献   

4.
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently in a ratification phase. Under the CTBT, an International Monitoring System (IMS) of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors is operational, and the data from the IMS is analysed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the null hypothesis H 0: explosion characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). The established magnitude used for event size is the body-wave magnitude (denoted m b) computed from the initial segment of a seismic waveform. IDC screening analysis is applied to events with m b greater than 3.5. The Rayleigh wave magnitude (denoted M S) is a measure of later arriving surface wave energy. Magnitudes are measurements of seismic energy that include adjustments (physical correction model) for path and distance effects between event and station. Relative to m b, earthquakes generally have a larger M S magnitude than explosions. This article proposes a hypothesis test (screening analysis) using M S and m b that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the null hypothesis H 0: explosion characteristics.  相似文献   

5.
We extend to the case of intermediate and deep earthquakes the mantle magnitude developed for shallow shocks byokal andTalandier (1989). Specifically, from the measurement of the spectral amplitude of Rayleigh waves at a single station, we obtain a mantle magnitude,M m, theoretically related to the seismic moment of the event through $$M_m = \log _{10} M_0 - 20.$$ The computation ofM minvolves two corrections. The distance correction is the same as for shallow shocks. For the purpose of computing the frequency-dependent source correction, we define three depth windows: Intermediate (A) (75 to 200 km); Intermediate (B) (200–400 km) and Deep (over 400 km). In each window, the source correctionC S is modeled by a cubic spline of log10 T. Analysis of a dataset of 200 measurements (mostly from GEOSCOPE stations) shows that the seismic moment of the earthquakes is recovered with a standard deviation of 0.23 units of magnitude, and a mean bias of only 0.14 unit. These figures are basically similar to those for shallow events. Our method successfully recognizes truly large deep events, such as the 1970 Colombia shock, and errors due to the potential misclassification of events into the wrong depth window are minimal.  相似文献   

6.
We estimate the corner frequencies of 20 crustal seismic events from mainshock–aftershock sequences in different tectonic environments (mainshocks 5.7 < M W < 7.6) using the well-established seismic coda ratio technique (Mayeda et al. in Geophys Res Lett 34:L11303, 2007; Mayeda and Malagnini in Geophys Res Lett, 2010), which provides optimal stability and does not require path or site corrections. For each sequence, we assumed the Brune source model and estimated all the events’ corner frequencies and associated apparent stresses following the MDAC spectral formulation of Walter and Taylor (A revised magnitude and distance amplitude correction (MDAC2) procedure for regional seismic discriminants, 2001), which allows for the possibility of non-self-similar source scaling. Within each sequence, we observe a systematic deviation from the self-similar \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - 3} \) line, all data being rather compatible with \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - (3 + \varepsilon )} \) , where ε > 0 (Kanamori and Rivera in Bull Seismol Soc Am 94:314–319, 2004). The deviation from a strict self-similar behavior within each earthquake sequence of our collection is indicated by a systematic increase in the estimated average static stress drop and apparent stress with increasing seismic moment (moment magnitude). Our favored physical interpretation for the increased apparent stress with earthquake size is a progressive frictional weakening for increasing seismic slip, in agreement with recent results obtained in laboratory experiments performed on state-of-the-art apparatuses at slip rates of the order of 1 m/s or larger. At smaller magnitudes (M W < 5.5), the overall data set is characterized by a variability in apparent stress of almost three orders of magnitude, mostly from the scatter observed in strike-slip sequences. Larger events (M W > 5.5) show much less variability: about one order of magnitude. It appears that the apparent stress (and static stress drop) does not grow indefinitely at larger magnitudes: for example, in the case of the Chi–Chi sequence (the best sampled sequence between M W 5 and 6.5), some roughly constant stress parameters characterize earthquakes larger than M W ~ 5.5. A representative fault slip for M W 5.5 is a few tens of centimeters (e.g., Ide and Takeo in J Geophys Res 102:27379–27391, 1997), which corresponds to the slip amount at which effective lubrication is observed, according to recent laboratory friction experiments performed at seismic slip velocities (V ~ 1 m/s) and normal stresses representative of crustal depths (Di Toro et al. in Nature in press, 2011, and references therein). If the observed deviation from self-similar scaling is explained in terms of an asymptotic increase in apparent stress (Malagnini et al. in Pure Appl Geophys, 2014, this volume), which is directly related to dynamic stress drop on the fault, one interpretation is that for a seismic slip of a few tens of centimeters (M W ~ 5.5) or larger, a fully lubricated frictional state may be asymptotically approached.  相似文献   

7.
Seismic source characteristics of low-yield (0.5–5 kt) underground explosions are inferred from hydrodynamic simulations using a granite material model on high-performance (parallel) computers. We use a non-linear rheological model for granite calibrated to historical near-field nuclear test data. Equivalent elastic P-wave source spectra are derived from the simulated hydrodynamic response using reduced velocity potentials. Source spectra and parameters are compared with the models of Mueller and Murphy (Bull Seism Soc Am 61:1675–1692, 1971, hereafter MM71) and Denny and Johnson (Explosion source phenomenology, pp 1–24, 1991, hereafter DJ91). The source spectra inferred from the simulations of different yields at normal scaled depth-of-burial (SDOB) match the MM71 spectra reasonably well. For normally buried nuclear explosions, seismic moments are larger for the hydrodynamic simulations than MM71 (by 25 %) and for DJ91 (by over a factor of 2), however, the scaling of moment with yield across this low-yield range is consistent for our calculations and the two models. Spectra from our simulations show higher corner frequencies at the lower end of the 0.5–5.0 kt yield range and stronger variation with yield than the MM71 and DJ91 models predict. The spectra from our simulations have additional energy above the corner frequency, probably related to non-linear near-source effects, but at high frequencies the spectral slopes agree with the f ?2 predictions of MM71. Simulations of nuclear explosions for a range of SDOB from 0.5 to 3.9 show stronger variations in the seismic moment than predicted by the MM71 and DJ91 models. Chemical explosions are found to generate higher moments by a factor of about two compared to nuclear explosions of the same yield in granite and at normal depth-of-burial, broadly consistent with comparisons of nuclear and chemical shots at the US Nevada Test Site (Denny, Proceeding of symposium on the non-proliferation experiment, Rockville, Maryland, 1994). For all buried explosions, the region of permanent deformation and material damage is not spherical but extends along the free surface above and away from the source. The effect of damage induced by a normally buried nuclear explosion on seismic radiation is explored by comparing the motions from hydrodynamic simulations with those for point-source elastic Green’s functions. Results show that radiation emerging at downward takeoff angles appears to be dominated by the expected isotropic source contribution, while at shallower angles the motions are complicated by near-surface damage and cannot be represented with the addition of a simple secondary compensated linear vector dipole point source above the shot point. The agreement and differences of simulated source spectra with the MM71 and DJ91 models motivates the use of numerical simulations to understand observed motions and investigate seismic source features for underground explosions in various emplacement media and conditions, including non-linear rheological effects such as material strength and porosity.  相似文献   

8.
—?Experimental seismic event-screening capabilities are described, based on the difference of body-and surface-wave magnitudes (denoted as M s :m b ) and event depth. These capabilities have been implemented and tested at the prototype International Data Center (PIDC), based on recommendations by the IDC Technical Experts on Event Screening in June 1998. Screening scores are presented that indicate numerically the degree to which an event meets, or does not meet, the M s :m b and depth screening criteria. Seismic events are also categorized as onshore, offshore, or mixed, based on their 90% location error ellipses and an onshore/offshore grid with five-minute resolution, although this analysis is not used at this time to screen out events.¶Results are presented of applications to almost 42,000 events with m b ?≥?3.5 in the PIDC Standard Event Bulletin (SEB) and to 121 underground nuclear explosions (UNE's) at the U.S. Nevada Test Site (NTS), the Semipalatinsk and Novaya Zemlya test sites in the Former Soviet Union, the Lop Nor test site in China, and the Indian, Pakistan, and French Polynesian test sites. The screening criteria appear to be quite conservative. None of the known UNE's are screened out, while about 41 percent of the presumed earthquakes in the SEB with m b ?≥?3.5 are screened out. UNE's at the Lop Nor, Indian, and Pakistan test sites on 8 June 1996, 11 May 1998, and 28 May 1998, respectively, have among the lowest M s :m b scores of all events in the SEB.¶To assess the validity of the depth screening results, comparisons are presented of SEB depth solutions to those in other bulletins that are presumed to be reliable and independent. Using over 1600 events, the comparisons indicate that the SEB depth confidence intervals are consistent with or shallower than over 99.8 percent of the corresponding depth estimates in the other bulletins. Concluding remarks are provided regarding the performance of the experimental event-screening criteria, and plans for future improvements, based on recent recommendations by the IDC Technical Experts on Event Screening in May 1999.  相似文献   

9.
Summary Short-period vertical-componentP-wave spectra of seven presumed Semipalatinsk underground nuclear explosions, recorded by the Swedish seismic station network, are investigated. The events considered have closely spaced foci and cover the magnitude range fromm b=5.5 tom b=6.6. Spectra of six of these explosions show pronounced minima, varying from about 1.5 to 1.8 cps, which could be explained as principle minima due toP-pP interference. Supposing a nearsurfaceP-wave velocity at the test area of 4 km/sec, the shot depths are estimated to vary roughly from 750 to 1350 m. In order to obtain an estimate of the yield, the observed spectra are compared withHaskell's theoretical source spectra. For four events, relative yield estimates fit well the predicted values for explosions fired in a granitic medium. The behaviour of the remaining three explosions is discussed in detail.  相似文献   

10.
The characteristics of the attenuation field of short-period shear waves in the region of Nevada nuclear test site (NNTS) are studied. The seismograms of underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) and earthquakes recorded by three seismic stations in 1975–2012 at the epicentral distances of up to 1000 km are processed by the methods based on the analysis of the amplitude ratios of Sn to Pn and Lg to Pg waves, as well as the S-coda envelopes for close events. It is shown that the structure of the attenuation field in the Earth’s crust and upper mantle in the NNTS region experienced significant temporal variations during the interval of nuclear operations. The strongest variations were associated with UNEs conducted in the Pahute Mesa area, which held about two-thirds of the most intense explosions. Our data indicate that temporal variations in the structure of the attenuation field are related to the migration of deep fluids. A comparison of the general characteristics of the attenuation field in the regions of the three large nuclear test sites is presented.  相似文献   

11.
A probabilistic relation between seismic activity and the volumeV of extracted deposits in mines is derived $$\Sigma E = C \cdot V^B ,$$ whereC andB are parameters characterizing mining works and the state of rock mass. Assuming that the measure of seismic hazard is the amount of seismic energy released in a given time interval, it is shown how the hazard can be evaluated continuously. The derived relations were tested in selected coal mines in Upper Silesia.  相似文献   

12.
—?Some of the most suspicious seismic disturbances under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) are likely to be those associated with mining, as they are shallow, and at least some have an explosion-like m b :M s signature. Previous research highlighted the potential of broadband teleseismic P waves as a way of identifying large mine tremors. Broadband teleseismic P from two suspected large mine collapses, one in Germany (1302 UT, 13 March 1989, 5.4?m b ) and another in Wyoming (1526 UT, 3 February 1995, 5.3?m b ), show differences in character despite the similarity of the reported ground failure and mine types. We apply a full moment-tensor analysis to the teleseismic P waves and show that the data are inconsistent with either a shallow explosion or an earthquake (double-couple) at depth, but this method is unable to distinguish between a shallow dip-slip source and a closing-crack moment tensor. However, three-component surface-wave seismograms recorded at regional distances fit the shallow closing-crack model, but are inconsistent with a shallow earthquake source, because strong Love waves, expected from a double-couple source, are not observed at a number of stations well distributed in azimuth. Here, we restate the equivalence for shallow sources of the closing-crack model and a gravitational collapse model. We use the latter to model the broadband P waves from these mine tremors and show that, while non-unique, the differences in the observed broadband P waves from the two tremors can be attributed to the area, amount of collapse, depth, and rate of collapse. The collapse model predicts negative first-motion for all P waves in contrast to the positive polarity expected from explosions. Thus, the broadband teleseismic P waves have the potential to discriminate between large collapses and explosions.  相似文献   

13.
The dynamic calibration method (DCM), using natural seismicity data and initially elaborated in [Kedrov, 2001; Kedrov et al., 2001; Kedrov and Kedrov, 2003], is applied to International Monitoring System (IMS) stations in Central Asia. The algorithm of the method is refined and a program is designed for calibrating diagnostic parameters (discriminants) that characterize a seismic source on the source-station traces. The DCM calibration of stations in relation to the region under study is performed by the choice of attenuation coefficients that adapt the diagnostic parameters to the conditions in a reference region. In this method, the stable Eurasia region is used as the latter. The calibration used numerical data samples taken from the archive of the International Data Centre (IDC) for the IMS stations MKAR, BVAR, EIL, ASF, and CMAR. In this paper, we used discriminants in the spectral and time domains that have the form
$D_i = X_i - a_m m_b - b_\Delta \log \Delta $
and are independent of the magnitude m b and the epicentral distance Δ; these discriminants were elaborated in [Kedrov et al., 1990; Kedrov and Lyuke, 1999] on the basis of a method used for identification of events at regional distances in Eurasia. Prerequisites of the DCM are the assumptions that the coefficient a m is regionindependent and the coefficient b Δ depends only on the geotectonic characteristics of the medium and does not depend on the source type. Thus, b Δ can be evaluated only from a sample of earthquakes in the region studied; it is used for adapting the discriminants D(X i ) in the region studied to the reference region. The algorithm is constructed in such a way that corrected values of D(X i) are calculated from the found values of the calibration coefficients b Δ, after which natural events in the region under study are selected by filtering. Empirical estimates of the filtering efficiency as a function of a station vary in a range of 95–100%. The DCM was independently tested using records obtained at the IRIS (Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology) stations BRVK and MAKZ from explosions detonated in India on May 11, 1998, and Pakistan on May 28, 1998; these stations are similar in location and recording instrumentation characteristics to the IMS stations BVAR and MKAR. This test resulted in correct recognition of the source type and thereby directly confirmed the validity of the proposed calibration method of stations with the use of natural seismicity data. It is shown that the calibration coefficients b Δ for traces similar in the conditions of signal propagation (e.g., the traces from Iran to the stations EIL and ASF) are comparable for nearly all diagnostic parameters. We arrive at the conclusion that the method of dynamic calibration of stations using natural seismicity data in a region where no explosions were detonated can be significant for a rapid and inexpensive calibration of IMS stations. The DCM can also be used for recognition of industrial chemical explosions that are sometimes erroneously classified in regional catalogs as earthquakes.
  相似文献   

14.
Seismic data recorded at the broad-band teleseismic GRF array and theshort-period regional GERESS array, which is a designated IMS primarystation, are analyzed to determine the effectiveness of teleseismic P-wave complexity for the purpose of seismic event screening within theframework of Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification. For theGRF array, seismic waveform data from nearly 200 nuclear explosions havebeen recorded since its installation in the late 1970's, which were studiedalong with several thousand earthquakes from the last few years.Additionally, we investigated teleseismic P wave complexity for a similarnumber of earthquakes recorded at GERESS. However, owing to itsoperation starting in 1991, only a limited number of nuclear explosionseismograms are available for study.For nuclear explosions, complexity does not exceed levels of 0.3 except fora number of events from the Nevada Test Site recorded only at the GRFarray and located at a large distance where PcP may interfere with the initialP wavelet. Since all events with complexity at GRF larger than 0.3 areexclusively located on Pahute Mesa within the Nevada Test Site,near-source geology or topography must play a dominant role for theseincreased complexity values, while PcP may not contribute significantly tothe high-frequency energy measured by the complexity parameter.Although many earthquakes show complexities below this level, for morethan 25% of the earthquakes investigated the complexities determined arelarger than 0.7, thus showing distinctly larger values than nuclearexplosions. Therefore, this percentage may be screened as earthquakes fromall seismic events detected. As currently only about half of the eventsdetected by the global IMS network are screened out based on focal depthand the m b :M s criterion, teleseismic P-wavecomplexity may contribute significantly to the task of seismic eventscreening.  相似文献   

15.
The seismic behaviour of caisson foundations supporting typical bridge piers is analysed with 3D finite elements, with due consideration to soil and interface nonlinearities. Single-degree-of freedom oscillators of varying mass and height, simulating heavily and lightly loaded bridge piers, founded on similar caissons are studied. Four different combinations of the static ( $\text{ FS }_\mathrm{V}$ FS V ) and seismic ( $\text{ FS }_\mathrm{E}$ FS E ) factors of safety are examined: (1) a lightly loaded ( $\text{ FS }_\mathrm{V}= 5$ FS V = 5 ) seismically under-designed ( $\text{ FS }_\mathrm{E} < 1$ FS E < 1 ) caisson, (2) a lightly loaded seismically over-designed ( $\text{ FS }_\mathrm{E} >1$ FS E > 1 ) caisson, (3) a heavily loaded ( $\text{ FS }_\mathrm{V} = 2.5$ FS V = 2.5 ) seismically under-designed ( $\text{ FS }_\mathrm{E} < 1$ FS E < 1 ) caisson and (4) a heavily loaded seismically over-designed caisson. The analysis is performed with use of seismic records appropriately modified so that the effective response periods (due to soil-structure-interaction effects) of the studied systems correspond to the same spectral acceleration, thus allowing their inelastic seismic performance to be compared on a fair basis. Key performance measures of the systems are then contrasted, such as: accelerations, displacements, rotations and settlements. It is shown that the performance of the lightly loaded seismically under-designed caisson is advantageous: not only does it reduce significantly the seismic load to the superstructure, but it also produces minimal residual displacements of the foundation. For heavily loaded foundations, however ( $\text{ FS }_{V} = 2.5$ FS V = 2.5 ), the performance of the two systems (over and under designed) is similar.  相似文献   

16.
—?Accurate discrimination of seismic events with a regional network requires detailed knowledge of the propagation characteristics of seismic waves in the region. At present, such propagation characteristics are reasonably well known for P and S waves in the European Arctic, however much work remains to be done regarding surface wave propagation and magnitude estimation.¶Regional long-period or broadband seismic data in digital form has been available in the European Arctic for only a few years. In order to assess regional surface wave propagation, and in particular to evaluate the M s :m b discriminant at regional distances, it is therefore necessary to take advantage of the historic analog recordings. The station APA in Apatity forms a unique source of such data, with high-quality long-period seismic recordings of regional earthquakes and nuclear explosions dating back about 30 years.¶This paper presents initial results from a project to digitize APA surface waves of selected regional events. The recordings for recent years have been compared to a colocated broadband Guralp three-component seismometer in order to verify the response characteristics and the quality of the digitization process. It turns out that the quality of the digitized records is excellent, and can be used over a spectral band ranging from 5?seconds to at least 30?seconds period.¶We demonstrate the capabilities of the APA surface wave recordings to provide a promising separation of earthquakes and explosions in the European Arctic over a range of frequencies using the M s :m b discriminant, although we note that additional work is required in regionalization of the propagation paths to take into account the major tectonic features in the region. We also note that the body-wave magnitudes provided by international agencies are not always reliable for events in this region, and must be reassessed in order to make full use of the earthquake-explosion discrimination potential.  相似文献   

17.
A simple law of wear rate is examined for the process of gouge generation during the frictional sliding of simulated faults in rocks, by use of the Pi theorem method (dimensional analysis) and existing experimental data. The relationship between wear rate (t/d) and the applied stress can be expressed by the power-law relations $$\frac{t}{d} = C_\sigma \sigma ^{m\sigma } ,\frac{t}{d} = C_\tau \tau ^{m\tau }$$ wheret is the thickness of the gouge generated on the frictional surfaces,d is the fault displacement, σ and τ are normal stress and shear stress, respectively, andC σ,C τ,m σ andm τ are constants. These results indicate that the exponent coefficientsm σ andm τ and the coefficientsC σ andC τ depend on the material hardness of the frictional surfaces. By using the wear rates of natural faults, these power-law relationships may prove to be an acceptable palaeopiezometer of natural faults and the lithosphere.  相似文献   

18.
We applied the maximum likelihood method produced by Kijko and Sellevoll (Bull Seismol Soc Am 79:645–654, 1989; Bull Seismol Soc Am 82:120–134, 1992) to study the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for the different regions in western Anatolia (WA). Since the historical earthquake data are very important for examining regional earthquake hazard parameters, a procedure that allows the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two has been applied in this study. By using this method, we estimated the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude $ \hat{M}_{\max } , $ the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known $ \hat{b} $ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The whole examined area is divided into 15 different seismic regions based on their tectonic and seismotectonic regimes. The probabilities, return periods of earthquakes with a magnitude M?≥?m and the relative earthquake hazard level (defined as the index K) are also evaluated for each seismic region. Each of the computed earthquake hazard parameters is mapped on the different seismic regions to represent regional variation of these parameters. Furthermore, the investigated regions are classified into different seismic hazard level groups considering the K index. According to these maps and the classification of seismic hazard, the most seismically active regions in WA are 1, 8, 10 and 12 related to the Alia?a Fault and the Büyük Menderes Graben, Aegean Arc and Aegean Islands.  相似文献   

19.
A new estimate of the fracture parameters of earthquakes is provided in this paper. By theMuskhelishvili method (1953) a number of basic relations among fracture-mechanics parameters are derived. A scheme is proposed to evaluate the slip weakening parameters in terms of fault dimension, average slip, and rise time, and the new results are applied to 49 events compiled in the earthquake catalogue ofPurcaru andBerckhemer (1982). The following empirical relations are found in the paper: $$\begin{gathered} \frac{{\tau _B - \tau _f }}{{\tau _\infty - \tau _f }} = 2.339 \hfill \\ {{\omega _c } \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\omega _c } {W = 0.113}}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} {W = 0.113}} \hfill \\ \log G_c \left( {{{dyne} \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{dyne} {cm}}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} {cm}}} \right) = 2 \log L (km) + 6.167 \hfill \\ \log \delta _c (cm) = 2 \log L (km) - 1.652 \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ whereG c is the specific fracture energy,ω c the size of the slip weakening zone,δ c the slip weakening displacement,τ B ?τ f the drop in strength in the slip weakening zone,τ ∞?τ f the stress drop,L the fault length, andW the fault width. The investigation of 49 shocks shows that the range of strength dropτ B ?τ f is from several doze to several hundred bars at depthh<400 km, but it can be more than 103 bars ath>500 km; besides, the range of the sizeω c of the strength degradation zone is from a few tenths of a kilometer to several dozen kilometers, and the range of the slip weakening displacementδ c is from several to several hundred centimeters. The specific fracture energyG c is of the order of 108 to 1011 erg cm?2 when the momentM 0 is of the order of 1023 to 1029 dyne cm.  相似文献   

20.
Repeat times of strong shallow mainshocks have been determined by the use of instrumental and historical data for 68 seismogenic sources in the Aegean and surrounding area (34°N–43°N, 18°E–30°E). For 49 of these sources at least two interevent times (three mainshocks) are available for each source. By using the repeat times for these 49 sources the following relation has been determined: $$\log T_t = 0.36M_{\min } + 0.35M_p + a$$ whereT t is the repeat time, measured in years,M p the surface wave magnitude of the preceding mainshock,M min the magnitude of the smallest earthquake considered and “a” parameter which varies from source to source. A multilinear correlation coefficient equal to 0.89 was determined for this relation. By using the same repeat times for the 49 seismogenic sources, the following relation has been determined between the magnitude,M f , of the following mainshock andM min andM p . $$M_f = 0.95M_{\min } - 0.49M_p + m$$ wherem is a constant which varies from source to source. A multilinear correlation coefficient equal to 0.80 was found for this relation. The model expressed by these two relations is represented by a scheme of a time variation of stress under constant tectonic loading. In this scheme, the maximum stress values during the different seismic cycles fluctuate around a value, τ1, in a relatively narrow stress interval, expressing the high correlation coefficient of the relation between LogT andM p . On the contrary, the minimum stress values fluctuate around a value, τ2, in a much broader stress interval. However, each of these minimum stress values becomes lower or higher than τ2 if the previous one is higher or lower than τ2, respectively, expressing the negative correlation betweenM f andM p .  相似文献   

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