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1.
We evaluate the asteroid impact risk from the discovery night onwards using six-dimensional statistical orbit computation techniques to examine the a posteriori probability density of the orbital elements. Close to the discovery moment the observational data of an object are typically exiguous: the number of observations is very small and/or the covered orbital arc is very short. For such data, the covariance matrices computed in the linear approximation (e.g., with the least-squares technique) are known to fail to describe the uncertainties in the orbital parameters. The technique of statistical ranging gives us rigorous means to assess the orbital uncertainties already on the discovery night. To examine the time evolution of orbital uncertainties, we make use of a new nonlinear Monte Carlo technique of phase-space sampling using volumes of variation, which complements the ranging technique for exiguous data and the least-squares technique for extensive observational data. We apply the statistical techniques to the near-Earth Asteroid 2004 AS1, which grabbed the attention of asteroid scientists because, for one day, it posed the highest and most immediate impact risk so far recorded. We take this extreme case to illustrate the ambiguities in the impact risk assessment for short arcs. We confirm that the weighted fraction of the collision orbits at discovery was large but conclude that this was mostly due to the discordance of the discovery-night observations. This case study highlights the need to introduce a regularization in terms of an a priori probability density to secure the invariance of the probabilistic analysis especially in the nonlinear orbital inversion for short arcs. We remark that a predominant role of the a priori can give indications of the feasibility of the probabilistic interpretation, that is, how reliable the results derived from the a posteriori probability density are. Nevertheless, the strict mathematical definition of, e.g., the collision probability remains valid, and our nonlinear statistical techniques give us the means to always deduce, at the very least, order-of-magnitude-estimates for the collision probability.  相似文献   

2.
Abstract— We are making an open‐source asteroid orbit computation software package called OpenOrb publicly available. OpenOrb is built on a well‐established Bayesian inversion theory, which means that it is to a large part complementary to orbit‐computation packages currently available. In particular, OpenOrb is the first package that contains tools for rigorously estimating the uncertainties resulting from the inverse problem of computing orbital elements using scarce astrometry. In addition to the well‐known least‐squares method, OpenOrb also contains both Monte‐Carlo (MC) and Markov‐Chain MC (MCMC; Oszkiewicz et al. [2009]) versions of the statistical ranging method. Ranging allows the user to obtain sampled, non‐Gaussian orbital‐element probability‐density functions and is therefore optimized for cases where the amount of astrometry is scarce or spans a relatively short time interval. Ranging‐based methods have successfully been applied to a variety of different problems such as rigorous ephemeris prediction, orbital element distribution studies for transneptunian objects, the computation of invariant collision probabilities between near‐Earth objects and the Earth, detection of linkages between astrometric asteroid observations within an apparition as well as between apparitions, and in the rigorous analysis of the impact of orbital arc length and/or astrometric uncertainty on the uncertainty of the resulting orbits. Tools for making ephemeris predictions and for classifying objects based on their orbits are also available in OpenOrb. As an example, we use OpenOrb in the search for candidate retrograde and/or high‐inclination objects similar to 2008 KV42 in the known population of transneptunian objects that have an observational time span shorter than 30 days.  相似文献   

3.
The orbital evolution of asteroidal fragments with diameters ranging from 10 cm to 20 km, injected into the 3:1 Kirkwood gap at 2.50 A.U., has been investigated using Monte Carlo techniques. It is assumed that this material can become Earth-crossing on a time scale of 106 years, as a result of a chaotic zone discovered by Wisdom, associated with the 3:1 resonance. This phenomenon, as well as close encounter planetary perturbations, the v6 secular resonance, and the ablative effects of the Earth's atmosphere are included in the determination of the orbital characteristics of meteorites impacting the Earth derived by fragmentation of this asteroidal material. It is found that the predicted meteorite orbits closely match those found for observed ordinary chondrites, and the total flux is in approximate agreement with the observed fall rate of ordinary chondrites. About 10% of the predicted impacting bodies are meteorite-size bodies originating directly from the asteroid belt. The remainder are obtained by subsequent fragmentation of larger (～1 m to 20 km diameter) Earth-crossing asteroidal fragments. The largest of these fragments are observable as Apollo-Amor objects. Thus the apparent paradox between the orbital characteristics of observed ordinary chondrites and those predicted from Apollo object sources is reconciled. Both appear to be complementary aspects of the same phenomena. No other asteroidal resonance is found to be satisfactory as a source of ordinary chondrites. These meteorites are therefore most likely to be derived from S asteroids in this limited region of the asteroidal belt, the largest of which are 11 Parthenope, 17 Thetis, and 29 Amphitrite.  相似文献   

4.
We have numerically integrated the orbits of 18 fictitious fragments ejected from the asteroid 6 Hebe, an S-type object about 200km across which is located very close to theg=g 6 (orv 6) secular resonance at a semimajor axis of 2.425AU and a (proper) inclination of 15° .0. A realistic ejection velocity distribution, with most fragments escaping at relative speeds of a few hundredsm/s, has been assumed. In four cases we have found that the resonance pumps up the orbital eccentricity of the fragments to values >0.6, which result into Earth-crossing, within a time span of 1Myr; subsequent close encounters with the Earth cause strongly chaotic orbital evolution. The closest Earth and Mars encounters recorded in our integration occur at miss distances of a few thousandths ofAU, implying collision lifetimes <109 yr. Some other fragments affected by the secular resonance become Mars-crossers but not Earth-crossers over the integration time span. Two bodies are injected into the 3 : 1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter, and also display macroscopically chaotic behaviour leading to Earth-crossing. 6 Hebe is the first asteroid for which a realistic collisional/dynamical evolutionroute to generate meteorites has been fully demonstrated. It may be the parent body of one of the ordinary chondrite classes.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract— We present a novel Markov‐Chain Monte‐Carlo orbital ranging method (MCMC) for poorly observed single‐apparition asteroids with two or more observations. We examine the Bayesian a posteriori probability density of the orbital elements using methods that map a volume of orbits in the orbital‐element phase space. In particular, we use the MCMC method to sample the phase space in an unbiased way. We study the speed of convergence and also the efficiency of the new method for the initial orbit computation problem. We present the results of the MCMC ranging method applied to three objects from different dynamical groups. We conclude that the method is applicable to initial orbit computation for near‐Earth, main‐belt, and transneptunian objects.  相似文献   

6.
The probability of an asteroid colliding with a planet can be estimated by the Monte Carlo method, in particular, through the statistical simulation of the possible initial conditions for the motion of an asteroid based on the probability density distribution set by the respective covariance matrix to be further projected with the orbital model onto the supposed time point of the collision. Hence, the collision probability is calculated as the ratio between the number of projected (virtual) asteroids striking the planet and their total number. The main problem is that different elements of the initial conditions (orbit or state vector) are correlated and, therefore, cannot be simulated independently. These correlations are reflected in the nondiagonal covariance matrix of the solution. The matrix is diagonalized by an orthogonal transformation. In the uncertainty domain constructed from the diagonal matrix elements, the initial values for each of the six orbital elements are simulated independently from the other elements, but with the accounting for their normal distribution. The program for calculating the normal distribution is based on the central limit theorem. Each sample of the initial values for the six orbital elements is transferred to the initial reference frame using an inverse transformation. Then, numerical integration is used to track the asteroid’s motion along the respective orbit to predict a possible impact event. Asteroids 99942 Apophis and 2007 WD5 are used as examples to show that disregarding the correlations when diagonalizing the covariance matrix to set the initial conditions may seriously distort the collision probability estimates. The paper gives the probabilities of the collisions of Apophis with the Earth and asteroid 2007 WD5 with Mars calculated by the author from observation sets showing nonzero collision probabilities. The author’s estimates are compared to those calculated by NASA.  相似文献   

7.
In October 2009, a new set of optical observations of Apophis, a potentially hazardous asteroid, was published. These data have significantly expanded the interval of observations and their total number. In the article we compare the results of refinement of Apophis’ orbit made at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL, United States), the University of Pisa (Italy), and the Institute of Applied Astronomy (IAA) of the Russian Academy of Sciences with consideration for new observations. New orbits lead to a significant decrease in the probability of Apophis’ collision with the Earth in 2036. As a result of processing a large number of observations of asteroids approaching the Earth and main belt asteroids less than 40 km in size, with a large number of optical and, in many cases, radar observations in different oppositions, one of the authors revealed that additional acceleration affects their motion. This acceleration can be represented by the transversal component A 2 in the orbital coordinate system. The presence of this acceleration can be interpreted as the Yarkovsky effect. The statistical properties of distribution of A 2 for asteroids, for which it is determined quite reliably, evidence in favor of this interpretation. The value of additional acceleration for bodies the size of Apophis falls in the range ±10−13 AU/day2. In this paper we have calculated the probability of Apophis colliding with the Earth in 2036 at different values of the transversal component of additional acceleration A 2. For the resulting points, a plot of the probability of the collision against the A 2 value has been constructed. At A 2 = −8.748 × 10−14 AU/day2 (and zero values of the radial A 1 and normal A 3 components) the nominal solution for Apophis’ orbit on April 13, 2029, is only 90 m from the middle of a “keyhole” 600 m in width, which leads to a collision of Apophis with the Earth in 2036. Since the scattering ellipse in the target plane in 2029 significantly overlaps the keyhole, the probability of collision at the given additional acceleration value is 0.0022. This result has been verified by the Monte Carlo method. Tests of 10000 random sets of orbital elements, which were found taking into account their correlation, have shown that 22 cases have resulted in virtual asteroids colliding with Earth in 2036. A plot of the probability of the collision against the value of A 2 has been constructed.  相似文献   

8.
Using statistical orbital ranging, we systematically study the orbit computation problem for transneptunian objects (TNOs). We have automated orbit computation for large numbers of objects, and, more importantly, we are able to obtain orbits even for the most sparsely observed objects (observational arcs of a few days). For such objects, the resulting orbit distributions include a large number of high-eccentricity orbits, in which TNOs can be perturbed by close encounters with Neptune. The stability of bodies on the computed orbits has therefore been ascertained by performing a study of close encounters with the major planets. We classify TNO orbit distributions statistically, and we study the evolution of their ephemeris uncertainties. We find that the orbital element distributions for the most numerous single-apparition TNOs do not support the existence of a postulated sharp edge to the belt beyond 50 AU. The technique of statistical ranging provides ephemeris predictions more generally than previously possible also for poorly observed TNOs.  相似文献   

9.
A.G.W. Cameron 《Icarus》1985,62(2):319-327
According to the single-impact hypothesis for forming the Moon, the angular momentum needed for the present Earth-Moon system can be imparted to the proto-Earth by a collision with a body having one-tenth of the mass or more. The collision must vaporize a large amount of rock which must stay in the form of vapor after expanding in density by a factor of several, so that pressure gradients can accelerate significant amounts of the matter into orbital motion about the proto-Earth. A successful theory must put considerably more than a lunar mass into orbit, having considerably more angular momentum than is needed to assemble a lunar mass in orbit at 3 Earth radii. Such a collision has been simulated by a particular form of a particle-in-cell representation of hydrodynamics and 78 cases have been run representing variations in a variety of parameters. A significant fraction of the cases were successful in creating a satisfactory prelunar accretion disk. A fairly common characteristic of these cases was the presence of an excess velocity in the collision (above that of a parabolic orbit), implying that the projectile involved in the collision existed in an Earth-crossing orbit of significant ellipticity. A majority of the mass of the prelunar accretion disk is contributed by the projectile.  相似文献   

10.
Asteroid orbits using phase-space volumes of variation   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
We present a statistical orbit computation technique for asteroids with transitional observational data, that is, a moderate number of data points spanning a moderate observational time interval. With the help of local least-squares solutions in the phase space of the orbital elements, we map the volume of variation as a function of one or more of the elements. We sample the resulting volume using a Monte Carlo technique and, with proper weights for the sample orbital elements, characterize the six-dimensional orbital-element probability density function. The volume-of-variation (VOV) technique complements the statistical ranging technique for asteroids with exiguous observational data (short time intervals and/or small numbers of observations) and the least-squares technique for extensive observational data. We show that, asymptotically, results using the new technique agree closely with those from ranging and least squares. We apply the technique to the near-Earth object 2004 HA39, the main-belt object 2004 QR and the transneptunian object 2002 CX224 recently observed at the Nordic Optical Telescope on La Palma, illustrating the potential of the technique in ephemeris prediction. The VOV technique helps us assess the phase transition in orbital-element probability densities, that is, the non-linear collapse of wide orbital-element distributions to narrow localized ones. For the three objects above, the transition takes place for observational time intervals of the order of 10 h, 5 d and 10 months, respectively, emphasizing the significance of the orbital-arc fraction covered by the observations.  相似文献   

11.
In our work, the method that can help to predict the existence of distant objects in the Solar system is demonstrated. This method is connected with statistical properties of a heliocentric orbital complex of meteoroids with high eccentricities. Heliocentric meteoroid orbits with high eccentricities are escape routes for dust material from distant parental objects with near-circular orbits to Earth-crossing orbits. Ground-based meteor observations yield trajectory information from which we can derive their place of possible origin: comets, asteroids, and other objects (e.g. Kuiper Objects) in the Solar system or even interstellar space. Statistical distributions of radius vectors of nodes, and other parameters of orbits of meteoroids contain key information about position of greater bodies. We analyze meteor orbits with high eccentricities that were registered in 1975–1976 in Kharkiv (Ukraine). The orbital data of the Kharkiv electronic catalogue are received from observations of radiometeors with masses 10−6−10−3 g.  相似文献   

12.
Fifteen Apollo, or Earth-crossing, asteroids are now recognized, and their orbital elements tabulated here. None has been accidentally rediscovered, a circumstance that leads to the 50% probability that the total number equals or does not exceed 100 to absolute magnitude 18, or above a diameter of roughly 1 km. Physical observations, orbital characteristics, and associated meteor streams provide clues as to whether the Apollo asteroids are truly minor planets or moribund cometary nuclei. A definitive answer as to the origin of the Apollo asteroids is yet to be found, but a short discussion of the status of the problem is presented.Paper dedicated to Prof. Harold C. Urey on the occasion of his 80th birthday on 29 April, 1973.  相似文献   

13.
We used numerical simulations to model the orbital evolution of interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) evolving inward past Earth’s orbit under the influence of radiation pressure, Poynting–Robertson light drag (PR drag), solar wind drag, and gravitational perturbations from the planets. A series of β values (where β is the ratio of the force from radiation pressure to that of central gravity) were used ranging from 0.0025 up to 0.02. Assuming a composition consistent with astronomical silicate and a particle density of 2.5 g cm−3 these β values correspond to dust particle diameters ranging from 200 μm down to 25 μm. As the dust particle orbits decay past 1 AU between 4% (for β = 0.02, or 25 μm) and 40% (for β = 0.0025, or 200 μm) of the population became trapped in 1:1 co-orbital resonance with Earth. In addition to traditional horseshoe type co-orbitals, we found about a quarter of the co-orbital IDPs became trapped as so-called quasi-satellites. Quasi-satellite IDPs always remain relatively near to Earth (within 0.1–0.3 AU, or 10–30 Hill radii, RH) and undergo two close-encounters with Earth each year. While resonant perturbations from Earth halt the decay in semi-major axis of quasi-satellite IDPs their orbital eccentricities continue to decrease under the influence of PR drag and solar wind drag, forcing the IDPs onto more Earth-like orbits. This has dramatic consequences for the relative velocity and distance of closest approach between Earth and the quasi-satellite IDPs. After 104–105 years in the quasi-satellite resonance dust particles are typically less than 10RH from Earth and consistently coming within about 3RH. In the late stages of evolution, as the dust particles are escaping the 1:1 resonance, quasi-satellite IDPs can have deep close-encounters with Earth significantly below RH. Removing the effects of Earth’s gravitational acceleration reveals that encounter velocities (i.e., velocities “at infinity”) between quasi-satellite IDPs and Earth during these close-encounters are just a few hundred meters per second or slower, well below the average values of 2–4 km s−1 for non-resonant Earth-crossing IDPs with similar initial orbits. These low encounter velocities lead to a factor of 10–100 increase in Earth’s gravitationally enhanced impact cross-section (σgrav) for quasi-satellite IDPs compared to similar non-resonant IDPs. The enhancement in σgrav between quasi-satellite IDPs and cometary Earth-crossing IDPs is even more pronounced, favoring accretion of quasi-satellite dust particles by a factor of 100–3000 over the cometary IDPs. This suggests that quasi-satellite dust particles may dominate the flux of large (25–200 μm) IDPs entering Earth’s atmosphere. Furthermore, because quasi-satellite trapping is known to be directly correlated with the host planet’s orbital eccentricity the accretion of quasi-satellite dust likely ebbs and flows on 105 year time scales synchronized with Earth’s orbital evolution.  相似文献   

14.
A method is developed to calculate probability of collision. Based on geometric features of space objects during the encounter, it is reasonable to separate the radial orbital motions from those in the cross section for most encounter events that occur in a near-circular orbit. Therefore, the probability of collision caused by differences in both altitude of the orbit in the radial direction and the probability of collision caused by differences in arrival time in the cross section are calculated. The net probability of collision is expressed as an explicit expression by multiplying the above two components. Numerical cases are applied to test this method by comparing the results with the general method. The results indicate that this method is valid for most encounter events that occur in near-circular orbits.  相似文献   

15.
Establishing connections between meteorites and their parent asteroids is an important goal of planetary science. Several links have been proposed in the past, including a spectroscopic match between basaltic meteorites and (4) Vesta, that are helping scientists understand the formation and evolution of the Solar System bodies. Here we show that the shocked L chondrite meteorites, which represent about two thirds of all L chondrite falls, may be fragments of a disrupted asteroid with orbital semimajor axis a=2.8 AU. This breakup left behind thousands of identified 1–15 km asteroid fragments known as the Gefion family. Fossil L chondrite meteorites and iridium enrichment found in an ≈467 Ma old marine limestone quarry in southern Sweden, and perhaps also ∼5 large terrestrial craters with corresponding radiometric ages, may be tracing the immediate aftermath of the family-forming collision when numerous Gefion fragments evolved into the Earth-crossing orbits by the 5:2 resonance with Jupiter. This work has major implications for our understanding of the source regions of ordinary chondrite meteorites because it implies that they can sample more distant asteroid material than was previously thought possible.  相似文献   

16.
赵佳  赵刚 《天文学进展》2012,30(1):48-63
自1995年第一颗类太阳恒星周围的系外行星发现以来,随着已发现的系外行星数目的增多,对系外行星性质的统计分析变得重要和有意义。截至2011年6月9日,共发现系外行星555颗。以这些系外行星的轨道参数为依据,对系外行星的性质进行统计分析,得出了一些有意义的结论。同时简要介绍现有的行星形成与演化模型并依据得出的行星统计性质对其进行检验,这对于系外行星的进一步探测具有一定的指导作用。  相似文献   

17.
Abstract— The MORP camera network in western Canada observed 56 events which we associate with meteorites larger than 0.1 kg. An additional 33 Prairie Network (central USA) fireballs with published orbits were previously identified as the sources of meteorites of at least 0.25 kg. A comparison of the MORP orbits with each other and with the PN orbits, using the D′ criterion of orbital similarity, exhibits a surprising number of small values. This suggests there are groups of related objects among the 89 events. We evaluate the probability of small values of D′ arising by chance from a group of random orbits that has the distribution of orbital elements expected for meteorites. There is an excess of small values of D′ among the 89 meteoritic objects over the expectation for random orbits and a marked excess of very small values. Four groups comprising a total of 16 objects account for this excess. These groups exhibit a preference for the larger masses of the population and a very strong concentration of perihelia just slightly inside the Earth's orbit. Although it has been shown by others that gravitational perturbations will disperse Earth-crossing streams in times that are much less than cosmic-ray exposure ages, the properties of the four groups suggest they may be streams of fragments that crossed the Earth's orbit only recently. Such streams may include a considerable fraction of meteorites falling at a given time. Orbital evolution of these streams could alter the sample of meteorites arriving on Earth over time intervals that are less than the accumulation time of the Antarctic collections.  相似文献   

18.
We systematically investigate the encounters between the Sun and neighbouring stars and their effects on cometary orbits in the Oort cloud, including the intrinsic one with the star Gl 710 (HIP 89 825), with some implications to stellar and cometary dynamics. Our approach is principally based on the combination of a Keplerian‐rectilinear model of stellar passages and the Hipparcos Catalogue (ESA 1997). Beyond the parameters of encounter, we pay particular attention to the observational errors in parallaxes and stellar velocities, and their propagation in time. Moreover, as a special case of this problem, we consider the collision probability of a star passing very closely to the Sun, taking also into account the mutual gravitational attraction between the stars. In the part dealing with the influence of stellar encounters on the orbital elements of Oort cloud comets, we derive new simple formulae calculating the changes in the cometary orbital elements, expressed as functions of the Jeans impulse formula. These expressions are then applied to calculate numerical values of the element changes caused by close encounters of neighbouring stars with some model comets in the Oort cloud. Moreover, the general condition for an ejection of comets from the cloud effected by a single encounter is derived and discussed.  相似文献   

19.
We present a calculation of the probability distribution of the invariant separation between the nucleation centers of colliding bubbles resulting from the decay of a false de Sitter space vacuum. We also discuss the probability of a collision with a `third' bubble. This study is motivated by the proposed `colliding bubble braneworld' scenario in which the value of Ω0 today is a function of this invariant. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

20.
Brett Gladman 《Icarus》1997,130(2):228-246
The delivery dynamics of martian meteorites are examined by means of a direct numerical simulation of their orbital evolution. The dynamics in the martian region are dominated by secular resonant effects, not by close encounters with Mars. These secular effects rapidly (∼1 Myr) transport martian ejecta to Earth-crossing orbits. The measured cosmic-ray exposure ages of the martian meteorites are consistent with their being directly launched as small bodies from the martian surface by impacts over the last ?15 Myr. Collisional effects and being driven into the Sun efficiently destroy martian meteoroids in space on time scales of order 10 Myr. The implications of these results for the launch mechanism and microorganism transport are discussed.  相似文献   

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