The transition from Alboran to Algerian basins (Western Mediterranean Sea): Chronostratigraphy,deep crustal structure and tectonic evolution at the rear of a narrow slab rollback system     

《Journal of Geodynamics》2014

The eastern Alboran basin and its transition to the Algerian basin is a key area in the Mediterranean realm where controversial kinematic and geodynamical models are proposed. Models imply striking differences regarding the nature of the crust, the prevalence of brittle faulting and ductile shear, the origin of magmatism, the style of Miocene deformation and the driving mechanisms of the Alboran plate kinematics. Combining a new chronostratigraphic chart of the Alboran and Algerian basins based on the Habibas (HBB-1) core drill, deep seismic sections striking WSW-ENE and SSE-NNW, and potential field data, we re-assess the tectonic evolution that controlled the sedimentation and basement deformation of the westernmost limit of the Algerian basin and its transition with the Alboran domain. A WSW-directed extensional tectonic phase has shaped a stretched continental crust with typical tilted blocks along ∼100 km from Burdigalian to Tortonian times, which is assumed to result from the WSW-directed migration of the Alboran block driven by a narrow slab rollback. In the Algerian basin, this event was followed by the emplacement of an oceanic-type crust. Potential field signatures of the deep basin as well as geometrical correlations with onland outcrops of inner zones suggest a minimum WSW-directed displacement of the Alboran terrane of ∼200 km. At the southern foot of the Algerian basin, the continent-ocean transition is sharp and may result from the westward propagation of a slab tear at depth, forming two segments of STEP (Subduction-Transform Edge Propagator) margins. Our results support models of intense shear tractions at the base of an overriding plate governed by slab rollback-induced mantle flow. Finally, Messinian salt tectonics affected overlying deposits until today. A late Tortonian to Quaternary dominantly transpressive tectonic episode linked to the Africa-Iberia convergence post-dates previous events, deforming the whole margin.  相似文献   

Tectono-sedimentary evolution of the peripheral basins of the Alboran Sea in the arc of Gibraltar during the latest Messinian-Pliocene     

《Journal of Geodynamics》2014

In the peripheral basins of the Alboran Sea, five stratigraphic units (latest Messinian-Pliocene) separated by discontinuities and representing transgressive–regressive cycles have been recognized. The first unit (LM) is latest Messinian in age and precisely characterizes the Lago-Mare event at the end of the Messinian Salinity Crisis, i.e. just before the opening of the Strait of Gibraltar at the beginning of the Pliocene. The three following units (Pl-1, Pl-2 and Pl-3) are Zanclean in age, whereas the last one (Pl-4) is Piacenzian. These four Pliocene units consist of alluvial, deltaic, and littoral deposits in the marginal areas, changing to open marine deposits with planktonic components in the basinal areas, although their extension varies in each basin. Regionally, these units do not necessarily stack in a single stratigraphic succession because of tectonics that controlled their hosting basins. Thus, the LM and Pl-1 units occur only in the Malaga and Estepona-Marbella basins, revealing that the onset of the sedimentation after the Messinian evaporitic stage and the Pliocene transgression was not a single and synchronous event in the western Alboran Sea. Moreover, the Pl-3 and Pl-4 units do not appear in all basins, so that the subsequent continentalization process of these Alboran peripheral areas during the Pliocene was also diachronous.The sedimentary evolution of the peripheral basins was controlled mainly by tectonics. During the latest Messinian-early Pliocene, the sedimentation took place in a context marked by a NNW–SSE compression and ENE–WSW perpendicular tension. The onset of the sedimentation (LM and Pl-1 units) could be linked to preexisting E–W faults that mark part of the borders of the Malaga basin and the Estepona-Marbella sector. During the deposition of the Pl-2 unit, the movements of E–W, NW–SE, and NE–SW normal faults determined a continuous subsidence in several basins, resulting in the accumulation of thick clastic marine sequences (i.e. Malaga, Vélez-Málaga, and Nerja basins in Spain and Tirinesse basin in Morocco). Tectonic activity during the early Zanclean leads to a new paleogeographic configuration of the Alboran peripheral areas. The main features are: (i) continentalization of the Nerja sector in the Betics, Tetouan, and Oued Laou-Tirinesse sectors in the Rif; (ii) on the contrary, a period of intense subsidence started in the coastal sectors between Torremolinos and Manilva, allowing the development of the Pl-3 unit directly on the substratum; and (iii) the Malaga, Vélez-Málaga, and Malalyine basins maintained the marine regime, so their sedimentary infilling recorded the Pl-2–Pl-3 unconformity. Nevertheless, these last basins emerged shortly afterwards, before the end of the early Zanclean (FO of Globorotalia puncticulata), probably in relation to the beginning of the sea-level fall which characterizes the upper part of the TB 3.4 cycle by Haq et al. (1987).During the late Zanclean, sedimentation occurred only in the Betic basins, where NNE–SSW faults – conjugated with NW–SE faults – induced a major subsidence, permitting better development of the Pl-3 unit. On the contrary, NW–SE faults in the sector between Malaga and Nerja, and NE–SW faults in the Tirinesse basin, became practically inactive. Before the end of the Zanclean, the subsidence ceased also in the westernmost Betic basins, thus causing emersion, firstly in the sector between Torremolinos and Manilva and, slightly later, in the San Roque-Algeciras sector. Thus, the whole geodynamic activity conditioned the time–space evolution of the northern edge of the Alboran Sea, which was emerging throughout the Zanclean, successively from the E to the W. A similar E to W continentalization trend can be suggested for the Rifian Pliocene sectors when taking into account the Oued Laou-Tirinesse basins that emerged before the Malalyine one.Moreover, the unit boundaries do not coincide with those of the familiar Exxon coastal aggradational curve, but rather with the local or regional tectonic activity. Consequently, the correlation of the unit boundaries with those of the Pliocene deposits of the eastern Betic basins remains difficult. According to the biostratigraphical data, the Pl-1, Pl-2, and Pl-3 units correspond to the Pliocene-I by Montenat (1990), while the Pl-4 unit may be equivalent to the Pliocene-II.  相似文献   

A canonical correlation approach to the determination of homogeneous regions for regional flood estimation of ungauged basins     

G. S. CAVADIAS  T. B. M. J. OUARDA  B. BOBÉE  C. GIRARD 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):499-512

Abstract

A canonical correlation method for determining the homogeneous regions used for estimating flood characteristics of ungauged basins is described. The method emphasizes graphical and quantitative analysis of relationships between the basin and flood variables before the data of the gauged basins are used for estimating the flood variables of the ungauged basin. The method can be used for both homogeneous regions, determined a priori by clustering algorithms in the space of the flood-related canonical variables, as well as for “regions of influence” or “neighbourhoods” centred on the point representing the estimated location of the ungauged basin in that space.  相似文献   

Evolution history of the Hidaka-oki (offshore Hidaka) basin in the southern central Hokkaido, as revealed by seismic interpretation, and related tectonic events in an adjacent collision zone     

Yasuto Itoh 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》2005,153(4):220-226

Off the southern coast of Hokkaido the Hidaka-oki (offshore Hidaka) basin has developed on the western flank of a collision suture under the influence of long-standing compressional plate motion and provoked tectonic stresses around the northwestern Pacific rim throughout the late Cenozoic. The basin forming history of the Japan arc and Kuril arc collision zone is described on the basis of seismic reflection data interpretation. We identify two stages of basin formation: the older (late Oligocene-Miocene) faulted en echelon graben (pull-apart basin) and younger (Plio-Pleistocene) regional downwarping. Paleoenvironmental changes recorded within the fore-arc sediments indicate that the older basin filled up by the late Miocene. We inferred the volumes of the distinctive basins from the depth-conversion of seismic data, which suggest episodic uplifts and massive erosion of the Hidaka Mountains in the middle-late Miocene and the Plio-Pleistocene. Estimated sediment supply rates into the basins have a similar level for the both stages. Cause of an episodic uplift in the older stage is attributed to the delayed opening of the Japan Sea. The eastern Eurasian margin underwent N-S right-lateral faulting at 25 Ma as a result of rifting of the Kuril back-arc basin. Formation of the Japan Sea back-arc basin since the early Miocene (ca. 20 Ma) caused eastward motion of the western Hokkaido block and transpressive regime along the pre-existing N-S shear deformation zone.  相似文献   

Geodynamics of the Gibraltar Arc and the Alboran Sea region     

《Journal of Geodynamics》2014

Located at the Westernmost tip of the Mediterranean sea, the Gibraltar Arc is a very complex zone. The Betics in Spain and the Rif belt in Morocco surround the Alboran sea characterized by a thinned continental crust. The geodynamic evolution of this region results from the convergence of African and Iberian margins since the Late Cretaceous. It is controlled both by plate convergence and mantle dynamics, which significantly impact on morphology, sedimentary environments, tectonics, metamorphism and magmatism. We present here the contents of the special issue on the Gibraltar Arc and nearby regions, following the workshop organized at the University Abdelmalek Essaadi of Tetouan in Morocco from 27 to 28 October, 2011. The goal of this international workshop was to have an overview of the actual advance in research concerning the Rif and Betics chains, the Alboran basin, and their influence on the Iberian and African forelands.  相似文献   

Specific features of the genesis of the Azores-Gibraltar fault zone (North Atlantic)     

E. V. Verzhbitskii  M. V. Kononov  A. F. Byakov  O. V. Grinberg 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2010,46(10):872-882

Maps of the main structures and the degree of geothermal studies of the Azores-Gibraltar and Iceland regions are constructed. Computer modeling of the coefficient of velocity of thermal subsidence into the asthenosphere of the Azores segment of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is performed. According to the results of modeling, this velocity exceeds the mean velocity of thermal subsidence of the mid-ocean ridges of the world ocean by a factor of ∼ 1.5. The high velocity of subsidence of the Azores segment of the ridge is caused by the influence of the hot substance of the plume on the process of subsidence. The distributions of the heat flow in the Horseshoe basin, Alboran Sea, and southern part of the Iberian Peninsula are analyzed. A zone of increased heat flow and seismicity, extending from the Madeira-Torre Ridge through the Horseshoe basin, and farther to the east through the southern parts of Spain and France, is identified for the first time. The identified geothermal zone marks the northern branch of the diffuse boundary between the Eurasian and African plates. In the region of the Alpine chain, this zone joins the southern boundary between the Eurasian and African plates, which runs along the northern part of Africa and the Apennine Peninsula. The European and African plate boundaries outline the identified Western-Mediterranean plate, which mainly consists of the oceanic and thinned continental lithospheres of the Algerian-Provence and Tyrrhenian basins.  相似文献   

The geomorphometry of endorheic drainage basins: implications for interpreting and modelling their evolution     

Jean‐Marc Dorsaz  Jorge Gironás  Cristian Escauriaza  Andrea Rinaldo 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2013,38(15):1881-1896

  相似文献   

Erosion modelling for land management in the Tahoe basin,USA: scaling from plots to forest catchments     

M.E. Grismer 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):878-900

Abstract

Recent developments in hydrological modelling of river basins are focused on prediction in ungauged basins, which implies the need to improve relationships between model parameters and easily-obtainable information, such as satellite images, and to test the transferability of model parameters. A large-scale distributed hydrological model is described, which has been used in several large river basins in Brazil. The model parameters are related to classes of physical characteristics, such as soil type, land use, geology and vegetation. The model uses two basin space units: square grids for flow direction along the basin and GRU—group response units—which are hydrological classes of the basin physical characteristics for water balance. Expected ranges of parameter values are associated with each of these classes during the model calibration. Results are presented of the model fitting in the Taquari-Antas River basin in Brazil (26 000 km² and 11 flow gauges). Based on this fitting, the model was then applied to the Upper Uruguay River basin (52 000 km²), having similar physical conditions, without any further calibration, in order to test the transferability of the model. The results in the Uruguay basin were compared with recorded flow data and showed relatively small errors, although a tendency to underestimate mean flows was found.  相似文献   

Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Peruvian Amazon–Andes basin     

Waldo Sven Lavado Casimiro  David Labat  Jean Loup Guyot  Sandra Ardoin‐Bardin 《水文研究》2011,25(24):3721-3734

In this article, we propose an investigation of the modifications of the hydrological response of two Peruvian Amazonas–Andes basins in relationship with the modifications of the precipitation and evapotranspiration rates inferred by the IPCC. These two basins integrate around 10% of the total area of the Amazonian basin. These estimations are based on the application of two monthly hydrological models, GR2M and MWB3, and the climatic projections come from BCM2, CSMK3 and MIHR models for A1B and B1 emission scenarios (SCE A1B and SCE B1). Projections are approximated by two simple scenarios (anomalies and horizon) and annual rainfall rates, evapotranspiration rates and discharge were estimated for the 2020s (2008–2040), 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2099). Annual discharge shows increasing trend over Requena basin (Ucayali river), Puerto Inca basin (Pachitea river), Tambo basin (Tambo river) and Mejorada basin (Mantaro river) while discharge shows decreasing trend over the Chazuta basin (Huallaga river), the Maldonadillo basin (Urubamba river) and the Pisac basin (Vilcanota river). Monthly discharge at the outlet of Puerto Inca, Tambo and Mejorada basins shows increasing trends for all seasons. Trends to decrease are estimated in autumn discharge over the Requena basin and spring discharge over Pisac basin as well as summer and autumn discharges over both the Chazuta and the Maldonadillo basins. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

大三江盆地及邻区地壳结构研究          下载免费PDF全文

武玮洁  黄金莉  李选涛  刘志坤  祝淮南 《地震学报》2022,44(2):286-301

收集了大三江盆地及其邻区区域地震台网及多个流动台阵的连续波形及远震事件资料,采用背景噪声层析成像和接收函数叠加方法,分别获得了研究区三维S波速度结构、基底及莫霍面深度和泊松比.结果显示:浅层速度结构较好地反映了地表地形及地质特征,三江盆地呈明显的低速,虎林和勃利等小型盆地的S波速度也相对较低,而小兴安岭、张广才岭等则呈...  相似文献   

Tsunami Simulations for Regional Sources in the South China and Adjoining Seas     

Emile A. Okal  Costas E. Synolakis  Nikos Kalligeris 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(6-7):1153-1173

We present 14 scenarios of potential tsunamis in the South China Sea and its adjoining basins, the Sulu and Sulawezi Seas. The sources consist of earthquake dislocations inspired by the the study of historical events, either recorded (since 1900) or described in historical documents going back to 1604. We consider worst-case scenarios, where the size of the earthquake is not limited by the largest known event, but merely by the dimension of the basin over which a coherent fault may propagate. While such scenarios are arguably improbable, they may not be impossible, and as such must be examined. For each scenario, we present a simulation of the tsunami??s propagation in the marine basin, exclusive of its interaction with the coastline. Our results show that the South China, Sulu and Sulawezi Seas make up three largely independent basins where tsunamis generated in one basin do not leak into another. Similarly, the Sunda arc provides an efficient barrier to tsunamis originating in the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the shallow continental shelves in the Java Sea, the Gulf of Thailand and the western part of the South China Sea significantly dampen the amplitude of the waves. The eastern shores of the Malay Peninsula are threatened only by the greatest??and most improbable??of our sources, a mega-earthquake rupturing all of the Luzon Trench. We also consider two models of underwater landslides (which can be triggered by smaller events, even in an intraplate setting). These sources, for which there is both historical and geological evidence, could pose a significant threat to all shorelines in the region, including the Malay Peninsula.  相似文献   

Geodetic constraints on active tectonics of the Western Mediterranean: Implications for the kinematics and dynamics of the Nubia-Eurasia plate boundary zone     

Philippe Vernant  Abdelali Fadil  Taoufik Mourabit  Driss Ouazar  Achraf Koulali  Jose Martin Davila  Jorge Garate  Simon McClusky  Robert Reilinger 《Journal of Geodynamics》2010,49(3-4):123-129

We present GPS observations in Morocco and adjacent areas of Spain from 15 continuous (CGPS) and 31 survey-mode (SGPS) sites extending from the stable part of the Nubian plate to central Spain. We determine a robust velocity field for the W Mediterranean that we use to constrain models for the Iberia-Nubia plate boundary. South of the High Atlas Mountain system, GPS motions are consistent with Nubia plate motions from prior geodetic studies. We constrain shortening in the Atlas system to <1.5 mm/yr, 95% confidence level. North of the Atlas Mountains, the GPS velocities indicate Nubia motion with respect to Eurasia, but also a component of motion normal to the direction of Nubia-Eurasia motion, consisting of southward translation of the Rif Mountains in N Morocco at rates exceeding 5 mm/yr. This southward motion appears to be directly related to Miocene opening of the Alboran Sea. The Betic Mountain system north of the Alboran Sea is characterized by WNW motion with respect to Eurasia at ～1–2 mm/yr, paralleling Nubia-Eurasia relative motion. In addition, sites located in the Betics north of the southerly moving Rif Mountains also indicate a component of southerly motion with respect to Eurasia. We interpret this as indicating that deformation associated with Nubia-Eurasia plate motion extends into the southern Betics, but also that the Betic system may be affected by the same processes that are causing southward motion of the Rif Mountains south of the Alboran Sea. Kinematic modeling indicates that plate boundary geometries that include a boundary through the Straits of Gibraltar are most compatible with the component of motion in the direction of relative plate motion, but that two additional blocks (Alboran-Rif block, Betic Mountain block), independent of both Nubia and Eurasia are needed to account for the motions of the Rif and Betic Mountains normal to the direction of relative plate motion. We speculate that the southward motions of the Alboran-Rif and Betic blocks may be related to mantle flow, possibly induced by southward rollback of the subducted Nubian plate beneath the Alboran Sea and Rif Mountains.  相似文献   

Paleobathymetry of the crest of spreading ridges related to the age of ocean basins     

J.J. Veevers 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1977,34(1):100-106

Measurements of the crest of the spreading ridge in the young ocean basins of the Afar region and Gulf of Aden and in the mature Indian, Atlantic, and Pacific Oceans show that the depth of the ridge crest is correlated (r = 0.99) with the logarithm of the age of the ocean basin. Ridge crests in a very young basin (Afar) are at sea level, at about 1.5 km in young basins (Gulf of Aden), and at about 2.6 km in mature basins (Indian, Atlantic, Pacific). A new curve that relates crestal depth and age of the ocean basin is coupled with the existing depth/age curve for oceanic crust in a comprehensive scheme which can be used for relating depth and age of oceanic crust.  相似文献   

Consequences of foreland basin development on thinned continental lithosphere: Application to the Aquitaine basin (SW France)     

Pascal Desegaulx  Henk Kooi  Sierd Cloetingh 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1991,106(1-4)

We present an analysis of the consequences of foreland basin development on thinned continental lithosphere, inherited from pre-orogenic phases of extension. Bathymetry at the transition from pre-orogenic extensional basin to foreland basin and compaction of pre-orogenic sediments contribute to the accommodation space for foreland basin sediments and thrust loads. In addition, the extension-induced transient thermal state of the lithosphere, results in ongoing thermal subsidence, and a flexural rigidity which changes through time. Quantitative modelling of the phase of extension and the foreland basin stage of the Aquitaine basin (southern France) shows that the inherited transient thermal state of the lithosphere contributes significantly to (1) the total foreland basin depth and width, (2) the post-compressional subsidence history, and (3) the cratonward onlap pattern. Accounting for the thermo-mechanical effects of pre-orogenic extension significantly reduces the estimates of both the flexural rigidity (30–43% for the Aquitaine basin) and the required topographic or thrust load (40% for the Aquitaine basin) at foreland basins. Emplacement of thrust loads below sea level, as expected in a pre-orogenic extensional basin setting, further reduces the required topographic load. This sheds light on the wide range of flexural rigidity values reported for continental lithosphere from foreland basin modelling studies, and explains, in many instances, the inferred ‘hidden load’ or subsurface load in flexural modelling studies at foreland basins. The present study has shown that pre-orogenic extension phases significantly affect the record of vertical motion and the stratigraphy of the Aquitaine basin and is probably important for foreland basin evolution in general.  相似文献   

Quaternary drainage network reorganization in the Colombian Eastern Cordillera plateau     

Lucía Struth  Emanuele Giachetta  Sean D. Willett  Lewis A. Owen  Eliseo Tesón 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(8):1789-1804

Dramatic drainage reorganization from initial longitudinal to transversal domains has occurred in the Eastern Cordillera of Colombia. We perform a regional analysis of drainage basin geometry and transformed river profiles based on the integral form of the slope-area scaling, to investigate the dynamic state of drainage networks and to predict the degree of drainage reorganization in this region. We propose a new model of drainage rearrangement for the Eastern Cordillera, based on the analyses of knickpoint distribution, normalized river profiles, landforms characteristic of river capture, erosion rates and palaeodrainage data. We establish that the oldest longitudinal basin captured by the Magdalena River network was the Suárez Basin at ≈409 ka, inferring the timing of abandonment of a river terrace using in situ produced cosmogenic beryllium-10 (¹⁰Be) depth profiles and providing a first estimation of incision rate of 0.07 mm/yr. We integrate published geochronologic data and interpret the last capture of the Sabana de Bogotá, providing a minimum age of the basin opening to the Magdalena drainage at ≈38 ka. Our results suggest that the Magdalena basin Increased its drainage area by integrating the closed basins from the western flank of the Eastern Cordillera. Our study also suggests that the Magdalena basin is an aggressor compared to the basins located in the eastern flank of the orogen and provides a framework for examining drainage reorganization within the Eastern Cordillera and in similar orogenic settings. The results improve our understanding of headward integration of closed basins across orogenic plateaux. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Late Miocene to present-day exhumation and uplift of the Internal Zone of the Rif chain: Insights from low temperature thermochronometry and basin analysis     

《Journal of Geodynamics》2014

Located on the margin of the west Alboran basin, the Gibraltar Arc (Betic-Rif mountain belt) displays post-Pliocene vertical movements evidenced by uplifted marine sedimentary basins and marine terraces. Quantification of vertical movements is an important clue to understand the origin of present-day relief generation in the Betic-Rif mountain chain together with the causes of the Messinian Salinity Crisis. In this paper, we present the results of a pluridisciplinary study combining an analysis of low temperature thermochronology and Pliocene basins evolution to constrain the exhumation history and surface uplift of internals units of the Rif belt (Northern Morocco). The mean (U-Th)/He apatite ages obtained from 11 samples are comprised between 14.1 and 17.8 Ma and display a wide dispersion, which could be explained by a great variability of apatite chemistries in the analyzed samples. No correlations between altitude and age have been found along altitudinal profile suggesting a rapid exhumation during this period. Thermal modeling using our (U-Th)/He apatite ages and geochronological data previously obtained in the same area (⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar and K/Ar data on biotite, zircon and apatite fission track) allow us to propose a cooling history. The rocks suffered a rapid cooling at 60–100 °C/Ma between 22.5 and 19 Ma, then cooled to temperatures around 40 °C between 19 and 18 Ma. They were re-heated at around 110 °C between 18 and 15 Ma then rapidly cooled and exhumed to reach the surface temperature at around 13 Ma. The re-heating could be related to a renewal in thrusting and burying of the inner zones. Between 15 and 13 Ma the cooling resumed at a rate of 50 °C/Ma indicating an exhumation rate of 0.8 mm/y considering an average 40 °C/km geothermal gradient. This exhumation may be linked to the extension in the Alboran Sea. Otherwise biostratigraphic and sedimentological analysis of Pliocene basins of the internal Rif provided informations on the more recent events and vertical movements. Pliocene deposits of the Rifian coast represent the passive infilling of palaeo-rias between 5.33 and 3.8 Ma. The whole coastal area was uplifted at slow average rates (0.01–0.03 mm/y) in relation with a northeastward tilting of 0.2–0.3° since the Lower-Pliocene. A late Pliocene to present extensional tectonics associated to uplift has been identified all along the coastal ranges of the Internal Zone of the Rif chain. This extension was coeval with the major late Pliocene to Pleistocene extensional episode of the Alboran Sea and appears to be still active nowadays. No significant late Messinian uplift was evidenced, thus calling into question the geodynamic models relating the closure of the marine gateways and the MSC to slab roll back.  相似文献   

Weather noise impact on the uncertainty of simulated water balance components of river basins     

Yeugeniy M. Gusev  Vladimir A. Semenov  Olga N. Nasonova  Evgeny E. Kovalev 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(8):1181-1199

Assessments of hydrological response to climatic changes are characterized by different types of uncertainties. Here, the uncertainty caused by weather noise associated with the chaotic character of atmospheric processes is considered. A technique for estimating such uncertainty in simulated water balance components based on application of the land surface model SWAP and the climate model ECHAM5 is described. The technique is applied for estimating the uncertainties in the simulated water balance components (precipitation, river runoff and evapotranspiration) of some northern river basins of Russia. It is shown that the larger the area of a basin the less the uncertainty. This dependency is smoothed by differences in natural conditions of the basins. Analysis of the spectral densities of water balance components shows that a river basin filters out high-frequency harmonics of spectral density of precipitation (corresponding to synoptic or sub-seasonal scale) during its transformation into evapotranspiration and especially into runoff.