共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
黑龙江省水稻生育阶段极端降水事件时空特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用百分位相对指数法,基于1971-2016年历史长序列的日降水资料,分析研究黑龙江省水稻生长季极端降水事件的阈值、频数和强度的时空特征。结果表明:黑龙江省极端降水事件阈值的高值区主要位于松嫩平原中南大部;极端降水事件主要集中于水稻生长季的5-9月,尤其是在水稻生殖生长的关键阶段,发生了大部分的极端降水事件;46年中,水稻种植区极端降水事件频数在18～72 d,极端降水事件频数总体呈经向分布特征,自东向西逐渐减少。7月下旬为中西部地区极端降水事件发生的高频时段,东部地区极端降水事件发生的高频时间段为5和9月,6月为极端降水事件发生的低频时段。近6年为极端降水事件频数最高、强度最大的一段时期,20世纪70年代则反之;极端降水事件频数和强度存在高度的相关性;在有雨量观测的小区域内,洪涝灾害事件基本可以被极端降水事件捕捉到,同时极端降水事件对洪涝灾害的指示性也较高。 相似文献
2.
N. O. Plaude E. A. Stulov I. P. Parshutkina Yu. B. Pavlyukov N. A. Monakhova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2012,37(5):324-331
The effects of wintertime and summertime precipitation on the mean (semiannual, seasonal, and monthly) concentration of aerosol particles of different sizes in the atmospheric surface layer are analyzed on the basis of the data of 15-year measurements of atmospheric aerosol in the town of Dolgoprudny (20 km from the center of Moscow). It is demonstrated that a statistically significant negative correlation between the aerosol particle concentration and the precipitation is observed for monthly mean values only and is absent for semiannual and seasonal means. The analysis of individual cases of precipitation corroborated the conclusion on their low impact on the aerosol concentration in the surface layer. In winter, the aerosol concentration decrease is observed within a narrow particle size interval of 0.03?C0.1 ??m and amounts to not more than 30% during several hours. A scavenging effect of summertime precipitation manifests itself in a wider size interval of 0.03?C1.0 ??m but does not exceed 10?C20% and is of short-term nature. The limited effects of precipitation on the surface aerosol are explained by the proximity to the underlying surface being a permanent aerosol source. 相似文献
3.
Impact of the anomalous thawing in the Tibetan Plateau on summer precipitation in China and its mechanism 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The impact of the anomalous thawing of frozen soil in the late spring on the summer precipitation in China and its possible mechanism are analyzed in the context of the frozen soil thawing date data of the 50 meteorological stations in the Tibetan Plateau, and the NCEP/NCAR monthly average reanalysis data.Results show that the thawing dates of the Tibetan Plateau gradually become earlier from 1980 to 1999,which is consistent with the trend of global warming in the 20th century. Because differences in the thermal capacity and conductivity between frozen and unfrozen soils are larger, changes in the freezing/thawing process of soil may change the physical properties of the underlying surface, thus affecting exchanges of sensible and latent heat between the ground surface and air. The thermal state change of the plateau ground surface must lead to the thermal anomalies of the atmosphere over and around the plateau, and then further to the anomalies of the general atmospheric circulation. A possible mechanism for the impact of the thawing of the plateau on summer (July) precipitation may be as follows. When the frozen soil thaws early (late) in the plateau, the thermal capacity of the ground surface is large (small), and the thermal conductivity is small (large), therefore, the thermal exchanges between the ground surface and the air are weak (strong). The small (large) ground surface sensible and latent heat fluxes lead to a weak (strong) South Asian high, a weak (strong) West Pacific subtropical high and a little to south (north) of its normal position. Correspondingly, the ascending motion is strengthened (weakened) and precipitationin creases (decreases) in South China, while in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River, the ascending motion and precipitation show the opposite trend. 相似文献
4.
使用热带测雨卫星（TRMM）搭载的测雨雷达（PR）2004-2014年长达11 a的连续观测资料对青藏高原东南缘川渝地区不同季节不同降水类型的垂直结构特征进行了统计分析,并建立了相应的气候态反射率垂直廓线（Vertical Profiles of Reflectivity,简称VPR）。结果表明,由于不同的微物理及动力过程,降水类型对反射率垂直廓线的结构特征影响很大,90%的层云0℃层亮带峰值强度低于32 dBz,50%的对流云最大反射率强度超过35 dBz。降水类型及强度均对反射率垂直廓线的形状影响很大,层云系统发生中及大雨时其冰雪区的聚合反应效率明显较发生小雨时高。反射率垂直廓线特征参数具有一定的区域性和季节特征,且地表加热和地形高度的作用会加强上升气流对反射率垂直廓线形态的影响,上升气流的强度影响着冰雪及雨水区的碰并增长率以及低层的蒸发作用,从而进一步影响低层雨区的反射率垂直廓线斜率,边界层的相对湿度是另一个影响雨区反射率垂直廓线斜率及蒸发率的重要因素。星载测雨雷达的云分类算法在青藏高原东南缘地区受到一定的挑战,仍有改进的空间;未来可以将基于星载测雨雷达建立气候态层云典型反射率垂直廓线应用于联合地基天气雷达网观测以弥补后者在复杂地形条件下探测范围及能力受限的缺陷,从而改进雷达定量降水估测的误差。 相似文献
5.
不同区域海温异常对中国夏季旱涝影响的诊断研究和预测试验 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
利用季降水异常的典型集合相关预测模式, 研究了前期和同期不同季节全球海表温度距平场与中国夏季旱涝的遥相关分布特征以及这种相关型随季节的变化, 揭示了全球海温的异常变化在中国夏季旱涝中的信号特征.研究表明, 全球不同区域海温对我国夏季降水的影响存在着明显的季节差异.全球特定的海温分布可以作为中国夏季旱涝预报的信号因子.选取不同区域及不同时段的海温场作为因子场分别对1998、 1999年这两个典型年份的我国夏季降水进行了诊断研究和预测试验, 并通过不同区域海温的影响权重做集成预测.试验结果表明:不同区域海温的集成预测不仅可以有效地提高预测的准确性, 而且可以揭示不同时段不同区域海温的异常变化在夏季旱涝中的强信号现象. 相似文献
6.
运用中尺度数值模式WRF耦合城市冠层模式（urban canopy model,UCM）,对2016年登陆深圳的热带气旋妮妲（1604）（以下简称妮妲）进行数值模拟。高分辨率数值模拟较好地再现了妮妲登陆前后的强度、路径和累积降水。利用城市化过程当中城市冠层对热带气旋降水的敏感性试验结果表明:城市冠层会减弱对流运动和水汽的输送,导致热带气旋登陆后珠江口城市群区域累积降水量略减少。应用最新的土地利用资料进行的城市下垫面敏感性试验结果表明:由于城市下垫面粗糙度增加,造成登陆地面风的减速,强度减弱,潜热通量与2 m高度比湿相应减小;城市下垫面粗糙度增加会加强该区域垂直对流运动以及不稳定能量增加,有利于降水增强,尤其在城市化下垫面处,热带气旋登陆后6 h累积降水增加量最大可超过20 mm。总体而言,对登陆热带气旋降水而言,耦合城市冠层使城市区域热带气旋降水减少,但在数值模拟中城市冠层影响作用不显著。城市化下垫面对登陆热带气旋暴雨的增幅作用明显,在登陆热带气旋降水预报中应重视。 相似文献
7.
Urban impacts on precipitation 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Ji-Young Han Jong-Jin Baik Hyunho Lee 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2014,50(1):17-30
Weather and climate changes caused by human activities (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and urbanization) have received much attention because of their impacts on human lives as well as scientific interests. The detection, understanding, and future projection of weather and climate changes due to urbanization are important subjects in the discipline of urban meteorology and climatology. This article reviews urban impacts on precipitation. Observational studies of changes in convective phenomena over and around cities are reviewed, with focus on precipitation enhancement downwind of cities. The proposed causative factors (urban heat island, large surface roughness, and higher aerosol concentration) and mechanisms of urban-induced and/or urban-modified precipitation are then reviewed and discussed, with focus on downwind precipitation enhancement. A universal mechanism of urban-induced precipitation is made through a thorough literature review and is as follows. The urban heat island produces updrafts on the leeward or downwind side of cities, and the urban heat island-induced updrafts initiate moist convection under favorable thermodynamic conditions, thus leading to surface precipitation. Surface precipitation is likely to further increase under higher aerosol concentrations if the air humidity is high and deep and strong convection occurs. It is not likely that larger urban surface roughness plays a major role in urbaninduced precipitation. Larger urban surface roughness can, however, disrupt or bifurcate precipitating convective systems formed outside cities while passing over the cities. Such urban-modified precipitating systems can either increase or decrease precipitation over and/or downwind of cities. Much effort is needed for in-depth or new understanding of urban precipitation anomalies, which includes local and regional modeling studies using advanced numerical models and analysis studies of long-term radar data. 相似文献
8.
本文采用中尺度数值预报模式GRAPES_Meso V3.3.2.5版本以及NECP的GFS资料,分别选用模式中不同陆面参数化方案(SLAB、LSM、NOAH)对2013年9月14-17日新疆强降水过程进行数值模拟试验,模拟的结果表明：陆面方案对主要雨带的落区和大致走向影响并不大,但对降强度的模拟还是敏感的,耦合陆面方案比不耦合陆面方案的模拟效果更接近实况;不同陆面方案模拟的降水量存在一定差异,它们对降水中心落点、强度以及类型方面各有所长;在各种试验的综合比较中,NOAH方案较其他方案的模拟结果显得更稳定与合理。 相似文献
9.
城市地表特征对京津冀地区夏季降水的影响研究 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
本文利用京津冀地区24个气象站的日降水资料和耦合有单层城市冠层模式(SLUCM)的中尺度数值模式WRF的模拟结果,研究了城市地表特征对京津冀地区夏季降水的影响。结果表明,在京津冀城市面积迅速增长的近三十年(1981~2010),该地区大部分站点的降水量都呈现减少的趋势,减少最明显的站点主要集中在京津唐城市区域,其中≥50 mm的降水量减少趋势占总降水量减少趋势的50%以上。城市扩张可能是造成京津冀降水时空格局改变的因素之一。通过对比分析控制试验与敏感性试验的模拟结果,发现城市化引起的地表特征的改变使北京、天津、唐山主要城市地区的降水量和降水频次都有明显减少,而城市群下风向的降水量和降水强度则明显增加和增强,其中50 mm以上等级的降水量变化最为显著,贡献率在60%以上。城市地表特征使北京、天津和唐山地区50 mm以上等级降水量的百分比下降了6%~20%,下风向地区增加了8%。城市地表特征也影响了主要城市和城市群下风向地区降水量的日变化结构,使北京和唐山几乎所有时段的降水量都有所减少,而城市群下风向降水量的增加主要发生在白天。研究发现城市地表特征对深对流的抑制(加强)可能是造成京津冀地区降水减少(增多)的重要原因,而由于城市地表蒸发量的改变引起的潜热通量和对流有效位能的改变则可能是引起深对流变化的重要因素。 相似文献
10.
Numerical simulation of the impact of vegetation index on the interannual variation of summer precipitation in the Yellow River Basin 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Two sets of numerical experiments using the coupled National Center for Environmental Prediction General Circulation Model （NCEP/GCM T42L18） and the Simplified Simple Biosphere land surface scheme （SSiB） were carried out to investigate the climate impacts of fractional vegetation cover （FVC） and leaf area index （LAI） on East Asia summer precipitation, especially in the Yellow River Basin （YRB）. One set employed prescribed FVC and LAI which have no interannual variations based on the climatology of vegetation distribution; the other with FVC and LAI derived from satellite observations of the International Satellite Land Surface Climate Project （ISLSCP） for 1987 and 1988. The simulations of the two experiments were compared to study the influence of FVC, LAI on summer precipitation interannual variation in the YRB. Compared with observations and the NCEP reanalysis data, the experiment that included both the effects of satellite-derived vegetation indexes and sea surface temperature （SST） produced better seasonal and interannual precipitation variations than the experiment with SST but no interannual variations in FVC and LAI, indicating that better representations of the vegetation index and its interannual variation may be important for climate prediction. The difference between 1987 and 1988 indicated that with the increase of FVC and LAI, especially around the YRB, surface albedo decreased, net surface radiation increased, and consequently local evaporation and precipitation intensified. Further more, surface sensible heat flux, surface temperature and its diurnal variation decreased around the YRB in response to more vegetation. The decrease of surface-emitting longwave radiation due to the cooler surface outweighed the decrease of surface solar radiation income with more cloud coverage, thus maintaining the positive anomaly of net surface radiation. Further study indicated that moisture flux variations associated with changes in the general circulation also contributed to the precipitation interannual variation. 相似文献
11.
Interactions between soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), atmospheric moisture fluxes and precipitation are complex. It is difficult to attribute the variations of one variable to another. In this study, we investigate the influence of atmospheric moisture fluxes and land surface soil moisture on local precipitation, with a focus on the southern United States (U.S.), a region with a strong humidity gradient and intense moisture fluxes. Experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting model show that the variation of moisture flux convergence (MFC) is more important than that of soil moisture for precipitation variation over the southern U.S. Further analyses decompose the precipitation change into several contributing factors and show that MFC affects precipitation both directly through changing moisture inflow (wet areas) and indirectly by changing the precipitation efficiency (transitional zones). Soil moisture affects precipitation mainly by changing the precipitation efficiency, and secondly through direct surface ET contribution. The greatest soil moisture effects are over transitional zones. MFC is more important for the probability of heavier rainfall; soil moisture has much weaker impact on rainfall probability and its roles are similar for the probability of intermediate-to-heavy rainfall (>10 mm day?1). Although MFC is more important than soil moisture for precipitation over most regions, the impact of soil moisture could be large over certain transitional regions. At the submonthly time scale, the African Sahel appears to be the only major region where soil moisture has a greater impact than MFC on precipitation. This study provides guidance to understanding and further investigation of the roles of local land surface processes and large-scale circulations on precipitation. 相似文献
12.
中国21世纪气候变化的情景模拟分析 总被引：33，自引：3，他引：33
许吟隆 《南京气象学院学报》2005,28(3):323-329
利用HadCM2和ECHAM4气候模式比较分析了温室气体排放综合效果相当于CO2浓度逐年递增1％情景下中国区域21世纪地面气温和降水量的变化趋势。结果表明：在温室气体渐进递增情景下，至21世纪末期，相对于1961-1990年的气候基准值，全国地面平均气温增幅可达5—6℃。与地面气温的变化相比，降水量的波动幅度较大，但全国范围内降水量变化的总趋势也是增加的。中国区域地面气温和降水量变化的地理分布显示：降水量的增加主要集中在南方区域，HadCM2预测21世纪末期降水增加可达0．9mm／d，ECHAM4预测可达0．6mm／d；ECHAM4模式模拟的气温增幅比HadCM2高，尤其是在冬季及中国北方和青藏高原地区，而HadCM2模式模拟的降水量的增加较大，但两个气候模式模拟的地面气温和降水量变化的总趋势大体一致。 相似文献
13.
关键海区海温异常的变化与中国区域降水和气温的关系 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用 １９５１年到 １９９８年的月平均海温资料及同时期中国 １６０个测站的降水和气温的月平均资料,选用海温异常的变化趋势一变温,讨论了关键海区海温异常的变化与我国降水和气温的关系,旨在探讨变温因子与我国降水和气温的关系与海温距平与降水和气温的关系有什么不同,用变温因子能否降低降水预报的不确定性。结果表明：降水异常对海温异常两种变化趋势的响应不完全相同,说明分别讨论同一种海温异常态的两种变化趋势对降水的影响比单独讨论海温距平对降水的影响更有效一些,有助于降低预报的不确定性;除西太平洋海区外,气温异常对各海区海温异常两种变化趋势的响应较一致。降水异常对变温的响应与对海温异常的响应,有一致之处,也有不同之处。 相似文献
14.
土壤湿度影响中国夏季气候的数值试验 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
利用"全球土壤湿度计划第2阶段"提供的土壤湿度资料强迫区域气候模式RegCM3,通过数值试验讨论了土壤湿度对东亚夏季气候模拟效果的影响。结果表明,合理考虑土壤湿度的作用,能够提高区域气候模式对中国夏季降水和2 m气温的空间分布型及逐日变化的模拟效果;模拟结果与观测的相关分析显示,降水和2 m气温的年际变化都得到了有效改进,这种改进在气温上尤为明显。不过上述改进具有区域依赖性。数值试验结果表明,气温对土壤湿度的敏感性强于降水,这也从一个侧面说明提高降水模拟效果的难度。总体而言,合理的土壤湿度能够提高区域气候模式对中国夏季气候的模拟能力。因此,合理描述土壤湿度的变化,是提高中国夏季气候预报技巧的潜在途径之一。 相似文献
15.
CMIP5模式对中国东北气候模拟能力的评估 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
利用CN05观测资料和参与IPCC第五次评估报告的45个全球气候系统模式的模拟结果,分析了新一代全球气候模式对中国东北三省(1961~2005年)气温和降水的模拟能力。结果表明:1)绝大多数模式都能较好地模拟出研究区内显著增温的趋势,对气温的年际变化模拟能力则相对有限;2)所有模式均能很好地再现气温气候态的空间分布特征,且多模式集合模拟结果优于绝大多数单个模式,空间相关系数达到了0.96;3)对于降水的模拟结果,模式间差异较大,多模式集合能较好地再现其空间分布规律(空间相关系数为0.86),对降水年际变化及线性变化趋势的模拟能力则较差。总体来说,多模式集合对东北气候的时空变化特征具有一定的模拟能力,且对气温模拟效果优于降水,对空间分布的模拟能力优于时间变化。 相似文献
16.
利用中国气象局所属的2 400余个台站观测资料制作的分辨率为0.25°×0.25°数据集中的气温、降水量资料评估了CMIP5中17个模式对于1961—2004年江苏省气温和降水量空间分布特征的模拟能力,筛选出了5个对江苏省气候特征模拟较好的模式。之后基于5个优选模式集合平均的结果预估了3种典型浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathways,RCPs)下江苏省2006—2100年的气温和降水量变化趋势。结果表明:(1)全球耦合气候模式对江苏省的气温和降水量空间分布特征具有一定的模拟能力,并且模式集合平均的气温和降水量与观测资料的空间相关系数分别为0.85和0.93;(2)在低浓度路径(RCP2.6)、中浓度路径(RCP4.5)和高浓度路径(RCP8.5)3种温室气体排放情景下,江苏省2006—2100年的地表温度均呈现明显的增温趋势,并且苏北的增温幅度要高于苏南;(3)3种温室气体排放情景下,江苏省未来百年降水量均呈现出北方增多南方减少的趋势;(4)未来百年江苏省降水量随气温变化的趋势并不稳定,RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下降水量随气温的升高而增加,而RCP8.5情景下降水量随气温的增加而减少。 相似文献
17.
Yongkang Xue Fernando De Sales W. K.-M. Lau Aaron Boone Jinming Feng Paul Dirmeyer Zhichang Guo Kyu-Myong Kim Akio Kitoh Vadlamani Kumar Isabelle Poccard-Leclercq Natalie Mahowald Wilfran Moufouma-Okia Phillip Pegion David P. Rowell Jae Schemm Siegfried D. Schubert Andrea Sealy Wassila M. Thiaw Augustin Vintzileos Steven F. Williams Man-Li C. Wu 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(1):3-27
This paper briefly presents the West African Monsoon (WAM) Modeling and Evaluation Project (WAMME) and evaluates WAMME general circulation models’ (GCM) performances in simulating variability of WAM precipitation, surface temperature, and major circulation features at seasonal and intraseasonal scales in the first WAMME experiment. The analyses indicate that models with specified sea surface temperature generally have reasonable simulations of the pattern of spatial distribution of WAM seasonal mean precipitation and surface temperature as well as the averaged zonal wind in latitude-height cross-section and low level circulation. But there are large differences among models in simulating spatial correlation, intensity, and variance of precipitation compared with observations. Furthermore, the majority of models fail to produce proper intensities of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and the tropical easterly jet. AMMA Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP) data are used to analyze the association between simulated surface processes and the WAM and to investigate the WAM mechanism. It has been identified that the spatial distributions of surface sensible heat flux, surface temperature, and moisture convergence are closely associated with the simulated spatial distribution of precipitation; while surface latent heat flux is closely associated with the AEJ and contributes to divergence in AEJ simulation. Common empirical orthogonal functions (CEOF) analysis is applied to characterize the WAM precipitation evolution and has identified a major WAM precipitation mode and two temperature modes (Sahara mode and Sahel mode). Results indicate that the WAMME models produce reasonable temporal evolutions of major CEOF modes but have deficiencies/uncertainties in producing variances explained by major modes. Furthermore, the CEOF analysis shows that WAM precipitation evolution is closely related to the enhanced Sahara mode and the weakened Sahel mode, supporting the evidence revealed in the analysis using ALMIP data. An analysis of variability of CEOF modes suggests that the Sahara mode leads the WAM evolution, and divergence in simulating this mode contributes to discrepancies in the precipitation simulation. 相似文献
18.
The Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP) is an international initiative aimed at producing global data sets of soil wetness and energy and water fluxes by driving land surface models with state-of-the-art 1° by 1° atmospheric forcing and land surface parameters. It also provides a unique opportunity to develop and test land surface parameterizations at the global scale, using multi-year off-line simulations that are not affected by the systematic errors found in atmospheric models. Nevertheless, the accuracy and reliability of the 10?year GSWP-2 atmospheric forcing remain questionable. A first comparison using the high-resolution Rhône-AGGregation (Rhône-AGG) database reveals that the baseline GSWP-2 precipitation forcing is drastically overestimated over the Rhône river basin. Hydrological simulations driven with each dataset and using the ISBA land surface model and the MODCOU river routing model are also compared. The simulated river discharges are validated against a dense network of river gauges and are generally less realistic when using the GSWP-2 instead of the Rhône-AGG precipitation forcing. Secondly, the GSWP-2 precipitation forcing is compared with three alternative data sets (GPCP-2, CRU-2, CMAP) at the global scale. Moreover, the results of a global sensitivity study to the precipitation forcing conducted with six land surface models are shown. The TRIP river routing model is used to convert daily runoff from all models into river discharges, which are compared at 80 gauging stations distributed over the globe. In agreement with the regional evaluation, the results reveal that the baseline GSWP-2 precipitation forcing is generally overestimated over the mid and high latitudes, which implies systematic errors in the simulated discharges. This study reveals that the empirical wind corrections applied to the GSWP-2 precipitation forcing are exaggerated, whereas the GPCP satellite adjustments seem to be useful for simulating realistic annual mean river discharges over the East Siberian river basins. 相似文献
19.
利用大气环流模式模拟了赤道中印度洋海区夏季变温与海温本身异常对中国夏季降水的影响.结果表明:当该海区夏季正(负)海温距平值呈递增(递减)变化时,激发出的降水场的正(负)异常幅度比正(负)海温距平强迫下相应的降水场的正(负)异常幅度大;但当正(负)海温距平呈递减(递增)趋势变化时,激发出的降水异常场与正(负)海温距平强迫下相应的降水异常场的分布形势类似(不同),异常幅度也有所差异.夏季中印度洋不同类型的海温异常对大气加热的不同,导致东亚季风和印度季风的不同变异,暖海温异常下引起东亚季风的明显偏强,而冷海温异常下引起印度季风的明显偏强. 相似文献
20.
青藏高原东北侧夏季降水的气候特征分析 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
利用西北地区均匀分布的126个地面测站,采用REOF和模糊聚类方法对降水的空间特征进行研究发现,青藏高原东北侧是西北地区夏季降水最为敏感的自然区,主要雨季为7～8月,几乎占全年总降水的一半,该区域少雨年的概率大于多雨年,旱年和多雨年交替出现。6月降水在近40a里呈上升趋势,7月降水总体变化不大,8月呈下降趋势,从降水线性趋势来看,整个夏季降水无明显变化。另外,气温距平和降水距平百分率具有明显的反位相变化关系,近40a来气温呈缓慢升高趋势。 相似文献