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1.
基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的22个地球气候/系统模式模拟数据,分析了1961—2100年期间青藏高原年均地表气温在不同情景下的时空变化。结果表明,多模式集合平均的模拟结果优于大多数单个模式。由于共享社会经济路径（SSP）和辐射强迫的不同,在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5四种情景下,2015—2100年间青藏高原年均地表气温的增温趋势分别为0.10 ℃·（10a）-1、0.29 ℃·（10a）-1、0.53 ℃·（10a）-1和0.69 ℃·（10a）-1,帕米尔高原、藏北高原中西部和巴颜喀拉山区为三个升温中心。相对于1995—2014年参考时段,到本世纪中期（2041—2060年）,青藏高原区域年均地表气温将分别增加1.37 ℃、1.72 ℃、1.98 ℃和2.30 ℃,而到本世纪末期（2081—2100年）,年均地表气温将分别增加1.42 ℃、2.65 ℃、4.28 ℃和5.38 ℃。与《巴黎协定》提出的到本世纪末全球平均气温升高不超过2 ℃目标相比,无论在哪种情景下,到本世纪中期时青藏高原年均地表气温相对于工业革命前均升高超过2 ℃,这会造成极大的气候生态环境问题。 相似文献
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3.
Changes in surface air temperature during the last century are widely discussed among researches in the field of climate change. This paper measures the variability of annual surface air temperature of five major cities of Pakistan (Lahore, Peshawar, Quetta, Hyderabad and Karachi) for the period from 1882 to 2003. We perform an exploratory analysis which shows that the annual landmass air temperature series of five relatively more important climate stations of Pakistan obey the normal distribution. A subsequent trend analysis shows that the temperature has been increasing in the twentieth century for the five (major) cities of Pakistan, the increase being 0.3°C to 1.0°C. We computations based on Bayesian analysis for two samples (e.g., for Lahore, we use data for the period from 1882 to 1960 and 1961–2000 for first sample and second sample, respectively) of temperature data of five cites shows that the average of annual mean temperature for the second period is higher than the average of first period. Thus, Bayesian inferencing shows that the general pattern of evolution of temperature over Pakistan is pretty similar to the current global warming configuration. 相似文献
4.
The Little Ice Age glacier maximum in Iceland and the North Atlantic Oscillation: evidence from Lambatungnajökull, southeast Iceland 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
TOM BRADWELL REW J. DUGMORE DAVID E. SUGDEN 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2006,35(1):61-80
This article examines the link between late Holocene fluctuations of Lambatungnajökull, an outlet glacier of the Vatnajökull ice cap in Iceland, and variations in climate. Geomorphological evidence is used to reconstruct the pattern of glacier fluctuations, while lichenometry and tephrostratigraphy are used to date glacial landforms deposited over the past ˜400 years. Moraines dated using two different lichenometric techniques indicate that the most extensive period of glacier expansion occurred shortly before c . AD 1795, probably during the 1780s. Recession over the last 200 years was punctuated by re-advances in the 1810s, 1850s, 1870s, 1890s and c . 1920, 1930 and 1965. Lambatungnajökull receded more rapidly in the 1930s and 1940s than at any other time during the last 200 years. The rate and style of glacier retreat since 1930 compare well with other similar-sized, non-surging, glaciers in southeast Iceland, suggesting that the terminus fluctuations are climatically driven. Furthermore, the pattern of glacier fluctuations over the 20th century broadly reflects the temperature oscillations recorded at nearby meteorological stations. Much of the climatic variation experienced in southern Iceland, and the glacier fluctuations that result, can be explained by secular changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Advances of Lambatungnajökull generally occur during prolonged periods of negative NAO index. The main implication of this work relates to the exact timing of the Little Ice Age in the Northeast Atlantic. Mounting evidence now suggests that the period between AD 1750 and 1800, rather than the late 19th century, represented the culmination of the Little Ice Age in Iceland. 相似文献
5.
Late Holocene temperature fluctuations on the Tibetan Plateau 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Proxy data of palaeoclimate, like ice cores, tree rings and lake sediments, document aspects of climate changes on the Tibetan Plateau during the last 2000 years. The results show that the Tibetan Plateau experienced climatic episodes such as the warm intervals during AD 800–1100 and 1150–1400, the “Little Ice Age” between AD 1400 and 1900, and an earlier cold period between the 4th and 6th centuries. In addition, temperatures varied from region to region across the plateau. A warm period from AD 800 to 1100 in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau was contemporaneous with cooling in the southern Tibetan Plateau, which experienced warming between AD 1150 and 1400. Large-scale trends in the temperature history from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau resemble those in eastern China more than the trends from the southern Plateau. The most notable similarities between the temperature variations of the Tibetan Plateau and eastern China are cold phases during AD 1100–1150, 1500–1550, 1650–1700 and 1800–1850. 相似文献
6.
全球变暖情景下黑河山区水循环要素变化研究 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
利用有关水文气象台站的观测资料,对近50年来黑河上游山区流域降水、气温与径流深等水循环要素的变化进行了分析,结果表明：该区域的平均气温变化总体上呈上升的趋势,且其升温幅度高于全球过去50年的升温幅度;降水与径流的变化均呈增加的趋势,但增幅不是十分显著,且径流增长的增幅要大于降水量,这意味着径流的增长并不完全依赖降水的增加,气温上升导致的冰川和高山积雪及地下冻土层融水增加也是影响黑河上游山区流域径流变化的重要原因。根据降水和气温未来的变化趋势,预计在未来50年中, 除非遭遇到特别极端的气候组合,黑河山区径流仍将维持过去50年来缓慢增加的趋势,但增幅非常有限,最大变幅基本在目前多年均值的±5%左右。 相似文献
7.
青藏铁路沿线多年冻土区地温场变化规律 总被引：19，自引：6，他引：13
青藏铁路通过约550km的多年冻土区,统计和分析青藏高原多年冻土分布区主要气象台站的资料可以看出,近30a来高原多年冻土区的气候变化总的趋势是向着气温升高的方向发展的,气温的变化对多年冻土热状态的扰动主要表现在地温场的变化上.30多年来高原气温升高0.45℃左右,并引起冻土地温平均升高了0.2～0.3℃.分析青藏铁路通过的多年冻土地区典型地段测温孔资料,发现多年来气候转暖已经使冻土上部(20m以上)地温明显升高,影响深度已经波及到了40m. 相似文献
8.
通过藏南沉错湖芯的210Pb和137Cs的测试,获得湖芯的平均沉积速率为0.16cm/a.根据湖芯长度和分样间距,获得平均分辨率为6～7年,长达1 350年的连续湖芯环境序列.对湖芯样品磁学指标的低频磁化率(Xlf)、等温剩磁(IRM)、饱和等温剩磁(SIRM)、非滞后剩磁(ARM)等指标及其比值的测试,划分了650 A D.以来沉错湖区的冷暖变化阶段和相对强度.结果表明,690～860A D.和1 120～1 320 A.D.分别出现两个相对集中的暖期,每个暖期中间又具有相对寒冷时段.1 520～1 650A.D.出现寒冷时段之后,1 820A D.左右直至现在环境又逐渐进入转暖时期.在3个暖期中,以1 220A.D.前后的温暖程度最强,而冷期中以1 610～1 650A.D.达到最盛.沉错湖区冷暖环境的演变得到了其他资料的很好验证. 相似文献
9.
We constructed a detailed relative sea-level rise curve for the last 1500 years using a novel approach, i.e. charting the rate of relative sea-level rise using microfaunal and geochemical data from a coastal salt marsh sequence (Clinton, CT, USA). The composition of benthic foraminiferal assemblages and the iron abundance in peats were used to describe shifts in marsh environment through time quantitatively. The resulting sea-level rise curve, with age control from 14C dating and the onset of anthropogenic metal pollution, shows strong increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise during modern global warming (since the late nineteenth century), but not during the Little Climate Optimum (ad 1000–1300). There was virtually no rise in sea-level during the Little Ice Age (ad 1400–1700). Most of the relative sea-level rise over the last 1200 years in Clinton appears to have occurred during two warm episodes that jointly lasted less than 600 years. Changes from slow to fast rates of relative sea-level rise apparently occurred over periods of only a few decades. We suggest that changes in ocean circulation could contribute to the sudden increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise along the northeastern USA seaboard. Relative sea-level rise in that area is currently faster than the worldwide average, which may result partially from an ocean surface effect caused by hydrodynamics. Our data show no unequivocal correlation between warm periods (on a decaal to centennial time-scale) and accelerated sea-level rise. One period of acclerated sea-level rise may have occurred between about ad 1200 and 1450, which was the transition for the Little Climate Optimum to the Little Ice Age, i.e. a period of cooling (at least in northwestern Europe). Local changes in tidal range might also have contributed to this apparent increase in the rate of relative sea-level, however. The second period of accelerated sea-level rise occurred during the period of modern global warming that started at the end of the last century. 相似文献
10.
Vincent Moron 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2003,335(9):721-727
The mean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the Mediterranean Sea during the past 150 years (1856–2000) are analysed. The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the covariance matrix of the SSTA explains more than 45% of the variance, suggesting that the temporal variation of the Mediterranean Sea is largely in phase over the whole basin. The mean variability of Mediterranean SSTA from 1856 to 2000 superposes a main irregular oscillation (period of 60–70 years and mean amplitude of 0.4–0.5 °C) and a weak long-term positive trend (equivalent to an increase of +0.1 °C per century). The last warm phase, which is strongest in the western basin, is not warmer than the decade 1935–1945 or the ending part of the 1960s. The mean temporal evolution of the North Hemisphere is close to the variation of the Mediterranean Sea, except that the long-term increase is more intense in the North Hemisphere. To cite this article: V. Moron, C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003). 相似文献
11.
大气0 ℃层高度是决定青藏高原冰冻圈消融状态的重要指标。基于ERA5再分析资料,分析了1979—2019年青藏高原夏季大气0 ℃层高度时空变化,发现青藏高原夏季大气0 ℃层高度介于4 423~5 972 m之间,以高原中南部（30°~32° N,83.5°~88.5° E）为高值中心,呈纬向分带状向四周逐渐降低。过去41 a青藏高原夏季大气0 ℃层高度总体呈持续上升趋势,高原北部上升趋势大于南部,祁连山地区上升趋势最为明显,为60 m?（10a）-1,而在高原西南部略呈下降趋势。平均而言,青藏高原夏季地面温度每升高1 ℃,大气0 ℃层高度升高122 m。利用CMIP6模式数据,预估在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5四种社会共享路径情景下,2020—2100年期间青藏高原夏季大气0 ℃层高度都呈现升高趋势,但不同情景下升高趋势在空间上差别较大。相对于1979—2014年参考时段,在四种情景下,到2081—2100年青藏高原夏季平均大气0 ℃层高度将分别升高265 m、394 m、576 m 和729 m;相对应的是到2081—2100年,在高原上处于夏季大气0 ℃层高度以下的冰川面积分别为第二次冰川编目数据的79%、86%、94%和98%。仅从夏季大气0 ℃层高度变化角度看,在SSP5-8.5情景下,到本世纪末期,预估除帕米尔高原和昆仑山西北部地区外,青藏高原其他地区的冰川在夏季将不存在积累区。 相似文献
12.
Hubert H. Lamb 《Quaternary Research》1979,11(1):1-20
Variations must take place in the ocean circulation when the general wind circulation varies. There are hints even within recent years that the variations in the ocean between Iceland and Scotland and Norway can be big: The area has been regarded as the main path of the warm, saline North Atlantic Drift water heading towards the Arctic; but, when the polar water occasionally intrudes from the north, sea-surface temperature is liable to fall by 3 to 5°C and presumably by more than this when, as in 1888, the ice advanced to near the Faeroe Islands. The long series of sea-surface temperature observations at that point, starting in 1867, and earlier observations covering the area in 1789, are studied. Various kinds of proxy data—notably the CLIMAP Atlantic ocean-bed core analysis results for the last Ice Age climax and cod fishery and sea-ice reports from the Little Ice Age in the 17th century ad—are then used to indicate the variability in this part of the ocean on longer time scales. The reconstruction of the situation between ad 1675 and 1705 resulting from this study suggests a probable mean departure of the sea surface temperature from modern values between the Faeroes and southeast Iceland amounting to about ?5°C; and at the climax in 1695 the polar water seems to have spread all around Iceland, across the entire surface of the Norwegian Sea to Norway, and south to near Shetland. Support for this diagnosis is found in a considerable variety of reports of environmental conditions existing at the time in Scotland, south Norway and elsewhere. The enhanced thermal gradient between approximately latitudes 55 and 65°N during the Little Ice Age, which this result indicates, offers an explanation for the occurrence in that period of a number of windstorms which changed the coasts in various places and seem to have surpassed in intensity the worst experienced in the region in more recent times. 相似文献
13.
藏北高原D105点土壤冻融状况与温湿特征分析 总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3
利用CAMP/Tibet在藏北高原D105点所观测的2002年1月1日-2005年12月31日土壤温度、含水量资料, 分析了该点的土壤温、湿度变化及其冻融特征. 结果表明: D105点40 cm深度以上土壤温度日变化明显, 随着深度增加, 土壤温度日变化相位明显滞后. 各层土壤温度月最高值出现在8-9月, 月最低值都出现在1-2月; 年际气候的差异至少可以反映到185 cm深处的土壤. 土壤冻结和消融都是由表层开始, 土壤随深度增加冻结快, 消融则慢. 冻结期间, 土壤温度分布上部低, 下部高; 消融期间, 则分布相反. 60 cm深度以上的土壤含水量在消融期有显著的波动, 表明60 cm深度以上的土壤与大气之间的水热交换比较频繁. 土壤温度的日变化和平均温度对土壤的冻融过程有较大的影响; 土壤含水量的多少会极大的影响土壤的冻融过程、土壤热量的分布状况以及地表能量的分配. 因此水(湿度)热(温度)相互耦合影响着土壤的冻融过程. 相似文献
14.
据年层计数和TIMSU系测年结果,建立了南京汤山葫芦洞YT石笋年际精度时间标尺(18000～14000aB.P.)。除石笋顶部5mm层段外,高分辨率的δ18O、灰度和年层厚度3种指标在百年尺度上具有相当一致的对应关系,表明这3种指标对气候因素变化响应比较敏感。综合石笋δ18O和本区古植被资料,估计末次盛冰期和波令暖期年均温分别达7℃和15℃。石笋揭示的末次盛冰期气候可进一步划分为4个阶段:1)18150～16900aB.P.,年均温和洞穴湿度逐步下降;2)16900～16100aB.P.,年均温和洞穴湿度相对稳定,可进一步划分为3个暖峰和两个冷谷;3)16100～15600aB.P.,年均温快速下降,按氧同位素平衡方程计算,其冷谷可能接近于0℃,但洞穴湿度比前期下降幅度并不大;4)15600～14750aB.P.,年均温和洞穴湿度比较稳定。这种气候演化的阶段性和突变性与北大西洋地区气候记录可以对比,反映极地与东亚季风气候受共同的驱动机制支配。从石笋4种指标(δ18O、δ13C、灰度和年层厚度)的功率谱图中识别出不同尺度的太阳活动周期成分,其中80aGleissberg周期特别显著,表明末次盛冰期边界条件下太阳活动仍是短尺度气候变化的主要驱动力。 相似文献
15.
我国北方晚更新世以来古环境变化在总趋势上有一致性,但又有地区上的差别.青藏高原古气候变化有其特殊性,末次冰期寒冷气候开始早于其他地区;全新世暖期开始晚于其他地区1500年左右.除受全球性气候变化影响外,青藏高原的迅速上升也是影响我国北方晚更新世以来古环境的因素之一;华北平原未来生存环境变化中水资源的变化受人类活动影响很大.目前水资源开发利用程度高,预测于21世纪前半个世纪内缺水状况是严峻的,平原区缺水将大于80×108m3/a;我国北方在全新世大暖期后,气候环境的变化是在大暖期期间形成的环境基础上演变的.总的趋势是向以冷干为主的气候和向干旱化环境演化. 相似文献
16.
Using surface soil daily minimum temperature from 845 meteorological stations across China, the long-term (1971-2000) mean and spatial distribution of the near-surface soil freezing days were estimated with annual values of the number of near surface soil freezing days. The time series for the number of freezing days were constructed and compared with air temperatures in the same period.Resultsshowed that long term mean value in the number of the near surface soil freezing days increased with the increasing latitudes and altitudes over China. Near-surface soils were frozen for more than 200 days in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau, northern Xinjiang and northeast of China. The boundaries of permafrost zones coincide with the contour of (220±10) days of near-surface soil freezing. Using the mean number of 15 days of near-surface soil freezing as criterion, we found that the southern boundary of seasonally frozen ground is around the 25°N line, and the regions south of 22°N are essentially unfrozen regions. The time series of the number of freezing days showed a significant linear trend with change with a slope of -0.22days/year over a period from 1956 through 2006. After the 1990s, the linear slope was up to -1.02 days / year, indicating that the rate of decrease in the number of near-surface soil freezing days has accelerated. Changes in the number of near surface soil freezing were in a negative correlation with air temperature, i.e., the number of near-surface soil freezing days decreases with increase in air temperature.Backgroundcolor represents the contour values of the departure of near-surface soil freezing days from the 1971-2000 mean; Black dashed line is the boundary of permafrost regions, red dashed line is the boundary between frozen and unfrozen ground regions in China 相似文献
17.
In this paper, the intra-annual and interannual variability of the sea ice is analysed over the period 1979–2012 from the data and images facilitated by the “National Snow and Ice dates Center”. These data are related to the annual average temperature. The annual average of the marine ice surface area (1979–2012) is very similar in both poles, although its temporary evolution is opposed in both hemispheres. In the Arctic Ocean there is an abrupt reduction of the surface area of the ice during this period. As opposed to it, the marine seas surrounding the Antarctic show an increase of the extension of the ice, especially in the last 15 years, with a maximum value in 2012. With respect to the total of the marine ice over the period 1979–2012, there is an overall deficit balance, because the reduction of the Arctic ice is greater than the increase of the Antarctic ice. 相似文献
18.
气候冷暖变化问题是全球科学家研究的一个聚焦点,但高海拔地区的气候变化过程尚不十分清楚,作为全球气候变化的敏感区的青藏高原更是如此. 以青藏高原北部的古里雅冰芯、唐古拉冰芯和南部的达索普冰芯、宁金岗桑冰芯δ18O记录作为温度代用指标,同时结合青藏高原西北缘的吉尔吉斯斯坦Naryn站长期气象记录和北半球同时期的气温变化进行比较,研究了过去100 a来青藏高原北部和南部的温度变化. 结果显示：青藏高原过去100 a来共出现1910年左右、1920年左右、1950年左右、1970年代4个冷期,各冷期之间对应出现4次暖期,并且变冷的程度越来越弱而变暖的程度越来越强. 其次,青藏高原气候的变冷变暖在不同地区和不同时段差异很大：从空间尺度上看,青藏高原北部变暖过程比南部更强烈;从时间尺度上看,1910年左右和1920年左右的两次变冷十分明显,但1950年左右和1970年代的两次变冷不明显. 另外,虽然有发生在1990年代早期的短暂降温过程,但与其说是一个冷事件,还不如说是一次变暖过程中的短暂停顿,随后表现为持续升温. 相似文献
19.
Active layer thickness variations on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau under the scenarios of climate change
Climate change has greatly influenced the permafrost regions on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). Most general circulation
models (GCMs) project that global warming will continue and the amplitude will amplify during the twenty-first century. Climate
change has caused extensive degradation of permafrost, including thickening of the active layer, rising of ground temperature,
melting of ground ice, expansion of taliks, and disappearance of sporadic permafrost. The changes in the active layer thickness
(ALT) greatly impact the energy balance of the land surface, hydrological cycle, ecosystems and engineering infrastructures
in the cold regions. ALT is affected by climatic, geographic and geological factors. A model based on Kudryavtsev’s formulas
is used to study the potential changes of ALT in the permafrost regions on the QTP. Maps of ALT for the year 2049 and 2099
on the QTP are projected under GCM scenarios. Results indicate that ALT will increase with the rising air temperature. ALT
may increase by 0.1–0.7 m for the year 2049 and 0.3–1.2 m for the year 2099. The average increment of ALT is 0.8 m with the
largest increment of 1.2 m under the A1F1 scenario and 0.4 m with the largest increment of 0.6 m under the B1 scenario during
the twenty-first century. ALT changes significantly in sporadic permafrost regions, while in the continuous permafrost regions
of the inland plateau ALT change is relatively smaller. The largest increment of ALT occurs in the northeastern and southwestern
plateaus under both scenarios because of higher ground temperatures and lower soil moisture content in these regions. 相似文献
20.
青藏高原封闭道碴层对下部多年冻土保护作用的现场实验研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
为了研究封闭道碴层对其下部多年冻土是否具有积极的保护作用,在青藏铁路北麓河试验段附近建立了封闭碎石道碴坑和卵石地表对比试验场,并对下部地温进行监测.结果发现:经过两个冻融循环后,道碴坑底部(1.3 m深度处)年平均地温为-1.11℃,比卵石地表相同深度低0.73℃;道碴坑中部(0.7m深度处)年平均地温为-1.60℃,比卵石地表相同深度地温低1.4℃.封闭碎石道碴层可以提升冻土上限,降低多年冻土温度,对下部多年冻土起到很好的保护作用.封闭道碴层的这种降温效果是由于道碴层具有可变导热系数的特点,暖季道碴层上部温度高,下部温度低,不产生对流,等效导热系数小,传入道碴层以下土体的热量较少;相反寒季道碴层上部温度低,下部温度高,产生自然对流,等效导热系数增大,有利于道碴层以下土体释放热量. 相似文献