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1.
The spatial variability of precipitation was investigated in the northwestern corner of Iran using data collected at 24 synoptic stations from 1986 to 2015. Principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) were used to regionalize precipitation in the study area. Eleven precipitation variables were averaged and arranged as an input matrix for the R-mode PCA to identify the precipitation patterns. Results suggest that the study area can be divided into four spatially homogeneous sub-zones. In addition, the spatial patterns of annual precipitation were identified by applying the T-mode PCA and CA to the annual precipitation data. The delineated spatial patterns revealed three distinct sub-regions. The resultant maps were compared with the spatial distribution of the rotated principal components (PCs). Results pointed out that the delineated clusters are characterized by different precipitation variability; and using different precipitation parameters can lead to different spatial patterns of precipitation over northwest Iran. 相似文献
2.
Mohammad Arab Amiri Yazdan Amerian Mohammad Saadi Mesgari 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(5):421
This paper aims to provide a spatial and temporal analysis to prediction of monthly precipitation data which are measured at irregularly spaced synoptic stations at discrete time points. In the present study, the rainfall data were used which were observed at four stations over the Qara-Qum catchment, located in the northeast of Iran. Several models can be used to spatially and temporally predict the precipitation data. For temporal analysis, the wavelet transform with artificial neural network (WTANN) framework combines with the wavelet transform, and an artificial neural network (ANN) is used to analyze the nonstationary precipitation time-series. The time series of dew point, temperature, and wind speed are also considered as ancillary variables in temporal prediction. Furthermore, an artificial neural network model was used for comparing the results of the WTANN model. Therefore, four models were developed, including WTANN and ANN with and without ancillary data. Several statistical methods were used for comparing the results of the temporal analysis. It was evident that at three of the four stations, the WTANN models were more effective than the ANN models, and only at one station, the ANN model with ancillary data had better performance than the WTANN model without ancillary data. The values of correlation coefficient and RMSE for WTANN model with ancillary data for the validation period at Mashhad station which showed the best results were equal to 0.787 and 13.525 mm, respectively. Finally, an artificial neural network model was used as an alternative interpolating technique for spatial analysis. 相似文献
3.
Arnon Karnieli Dr. 《GeoJournal》1990,22(4):391-398
The classical methods for interpolating and spatial averaging of precipitation fields fail to quantify the accuracy of the estimate. On the other hand, kriging is an interpolation method for predicting values of regionalized variables at points (punctual kriging) or average values over an area (block kriging).This paper demonstrates the use of the kriging method for mapping and evaluating precipitation data for the State of Arizona. Using 158 rain gauge stations with 30 years or more of record, the precipitation over the state has been modeled as a realization of a two dimensional random field taking into consideration the spatial variability conditions.Three data sets have been used: (1) the mean annual precipitation over the state; (2) the mean summer rainy season; and (3) the mean winter rainy season. Validation of the empirical semi-variogram for a constant drift case indicated that the exponential model was appropriate for all the data sets. In addition to a global kriging analysis, the data have been examined under an anisotropic assumption which reflects the topographic structure of the state. 相似文献
4.
降水集中程度是反映降水结构的重要指标。基于1960—2017年中国773个气象站日降水资料,运用降水集中程度（Q）,研究中国降水集中程度的时空特征,分析其与降水量、海洋状态之间的关系。结果表明:①中国年平均Q值为0.38,南北较低中间较高;冬季和秋季的降水集中程度相对较高,平均Q值分别为0.53和0.51,夏季和春季相对较低,分别为0.39和0.48。②年降水集中程度变化趋势较小,总体上略有上升,东南升高西北降低;在年和季尺度,Q和降水量均表现出较强的负相关性,年尺度相关系数为-0.71,秋季的相关性最强,相关系数为-0.89,春季的相关性最弱,相关系数为-0.70,降水集中程度和降水量共同影响水旱灾害受灾面积。③Q与NINO3.4指数间的相关性随着滞后时间的延长先增大后减小,当滞后时间为2个月时相关系数最大,平均为0.13,由北向南总体呈"-+-"分布;与PDO指数间的相关系数随着滞后时间的延长先减小后增大再减小,当滞后时间为4个月时相关系数最大,平均为0.12,以负相关为主。 相似文献
5.
风场变形误差是降水观测误差最主要的来源之一,其不仅影响观测值的准确性,也可能导致长期降水变化趋势中隐含虚假成分。结合北京地区20个气象站点1976-2015年逐日观测资料及前人研究成果,评估了风场变形误差对降水记录及其长期变化趋势的影响,结果表明:①近40年来北京地区平均降水捕获率为90%~95%,上升趋势较明显,但空间分布不均匀。城市化进程导致的风速减小是近10年来北京城、乡降水捕获率差异加大的主要原因。②北京地区风场变形误差存在明显的年际及季节差异。近40年来年均降水量订正值为23.1 mm,观测值较实际降水量年均低估了4.0%。订正后年均降水强度从实测的7.9 mm/d增加到8.3 mm/d,年降水量的下降速率从34.4 mm/10 a变为37.0 mm/10 a,观测值将降水强度低估了约4.8%,且将降水量的下降趋势低估了约7.0%。③对于强度越大的降水过程,风场变形引起的观测误差也越明显。对比发现,城市站点的风场变形误差年际振幅要大于乡村站点,弱降水过程中乡村站点的低估比城市站点明显,对大雨及以上强降水过程则相反,城市站点的低估比乡村站更显著。 相似文献
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应用以现代数据绘制的某些特定气候状况下的年平均降水量－年平均地表径流量关系曲线并根据已知的古气候状况,推测相应的古地表径流状况,是较为新颖的第四纪古水文学研究方法之一。进一步探究较大空间范围内和较长时间间隔中各种气候状况下的地表径流的变化规律,对于完善和精化这一研究方法颇具意义。利用分布在美国、澳大利亚、津巴布韦和芬兰的七百余个流水盆地的资料和数据,绘制了若干年平均降水量－年平均地表径流量关系曲线,讨论了年平均温度、年平均降水量、气候类型及与之相关的年降水的季节性分布对年平均地表径流量的影响,提出了在第四纪古水文学研究中应用这些关系曲线的事项。 相似文献
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Michał Makos Jerzy Nitychoruk Marek Zreda 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2013,42(3):745-761
Cosmogenic 36Cl was measured in bedrock and moraine boulders in the Za Mnichem Valley (High Tatra Mountains). The post‐LGM deglaciation of the study area occurred about 15.9 ka ago. The northernmost part of the valley slopes was ice‐free around 15 ka ago. The terminal moraine on the valley threshold was finally stabilized 12.5 ka ago during the Younger Dryas cold event (Greenland Stadial 1). At that time, the Za Mnichem glacier was 1.3 km long and had an area of 0.57 km2. The AAR equilibrium line of the glacier was located at 1990 m a.s.l., which corresponds to an ELA depression of ～500 m compared to today. The mean summer temperature was colder by 4°–4.5°C than the present‐day temperature. The mean annual temperature was colder by 6°C than today. Such conditions suggest a decrease of the annual precipitation by ～15–25% compared with the present‐day annual average. These data indicate a probable uniform temperature change across central and western Europe, with the precipitation being the most significant factor affecting the mass balance of mountain glaciers. The spatial distribution of balance data suggests increasing continentality towards the east during the Younger Dryas. 相似文献
8.
Jozsef Szilagyi Vitaly A. Zlotnik John B. Gates Janos Jozsa 《Hydrogeology Journal》2011,19(8):1503-1513
Mean annual recharge in the Sand Hills of Nebraska (USA) over the 2000?C2009 period was estimated at a 1-km spatial resolution as the difference of mean annual precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ET). Monthly P values came from the PRISM dataset, while monthly ET values were derived from linear transformations of the MODIS daytime land-surface temperature values into pixel ET rates with the help of ancillary atmospheric data (air temperature, humidity, and global radiation). The study area receives about 73?mm of recharge (with an error bound of ±73?mm) annually, which is about 14?±?14% of the regional mean annual P value of 533?mm. The largest recharge rates (about 200?±?85?mm or 30?±?12% of P) occur in the south-eastern part of the Sand Hills due to smoother terrain and more abundant precipitation (around 700?mm), while recharge is the smallest (about 40?±?59?mm or 10?±?14% of P) in the western part, where annual precipitation is only about 420?mm. Typically, lakes, wetlands, wet inter-dunal valleys, rivers, irrigated crops (except in the south-eastern region) and certain parts of afforested areas in the south-central portion of the study area act as discharge areas for groundwater. 相似文献
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Precipitation and groundwater are essential to water circulation and they mutually influence. Groundwater is the main water supply source in Hebei Plain. On the other hand, atmospheric precipitation infiltration recharge is the main supply source of the groundwater in this area. Therefore, the studies on Hebei Plain climatic change features are of great significance to further analyze the influences of climatic changes on groundwater resources. This paper selected 10 ground climatological stations in Hebei Plain in terms of daily precipitation and temperature data from 1961 to 2010 and analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution features of temperature and precipitation. The results showed that the minimum temperature of Hebei Plain in recent 50 years increased significantly; the maximum temperature basically is stable; and the mean temperature presents an obviously increasing trend. In the spatial distribution, it gradually decreases from southwest to northeast on the whole and gradually tends to increase from the coastal to inland. The precipitation in recent 50 years owns obvious interannual change features and spatial distribution features, with a trend of overall periodic decrease and significant decrease of extreme precipitation. The annual mean precipitation intensity and annual mean extreme precipitation intensity gradually increased from piedmont plain to coastal plain. Hebei Plain has a warming and drying development trend on the whole. In space, piedmont plain belongs to the high-temperature and few-water area; coastal plain lies in low-temperature and much-water area; and central plain is in transitional zone. The climatic change and human activities are two influential factors of groundwater resources. Further revealing of the climatic change features of different geomorphic types and measuring and distinguishing of the influences of climatic change and human activities on groundwater remain to be further explored. 相似文献
10.
雅鲁藏布江流域1978-2009年气候时空变化及未来趋势研究 总被引：12，自引：5，他引：7
利用1 km 分辨率DEM数据及ArcHydro Tools 提取了雅鲁藏布江流域边界, 明确给出了该流域具体的地理边界及空间范围. 依据雅鲁藏布江流域范围内及周边39个气象站点1978-2009年近32 a逐年气象数据, 综合运用GIS空间插值技术及气象统计分析方法, 对雅鲁藏布江流域气候(着眼于降水和气温指标)时空变化特征及未来变化趋势进行了研究. 结果表明: 1978-2009年间流域范围内多年平均降水大致趋势为由西至东逐步增加, 年平均降水量以7.935 mm·(10a)-1的速度缓慢增加. 流域多年平均气温大致由河源至下游逐渐升高, 河谷腹地至流域边界处逐渐降低, 并出现了以拉萨、乃东为中心的局部高温带; 近32 a流域年平均气温增加2.2 ℃, 增加幅度达到0.489 ℃·(10a)-1, 高于全球及全国同期增温速率. 近10 a间, 流域平均降水以 -139 mm·(10a)-1的速度显著减少, 气温则以1.14 ℃·(10a)-1的速度增加, 整个流域气候呈现暖干趋势. 利用R/S分析法预测得知, 流域年降水量可能出现短时间的减少波动, 但未来较长一段时间内, 流域降水及气温仍将保持增加趋势, 流域气候呈现暖湿化趋势. 相似文献
11.
利用1979-2016年ERA-Interim再分析资料提供的1°×1°水汽通量和大气可降水量（PWV）数据,采用相关性分析、趋势分析法、累积距平及反距离加权（IDW）等方法,研究三江源地区PWV与水汽通量的时空分布特征和降水转化率（PCE）。结果表明:①过去38年来,经、纬向多年平均水汽通量分别为2.0 kg/（m·s）、10.3 kg/（m·s）,水汽通量纬向增幅高于经向,水汽在纬向汇入为主,经向输出为主;② PWV呈微弱增多趋势,年平均PWV为1 791.6~2 278.9 mm,季节平均PWV为122.2~1 134.2 mm,不同季节内空间差异明显;③三江源区多年平均PCE为24.6%,1989年最高,达32.8%;季节与多年平均PCE空间分布一致,都表现出由东南向西北递减的变化特征,季节分布变化差异大;④该地区空中水资源丰富但自然PCE低,开发潜力大,应用前景广阔。 相似文献
12.
利用动态泰森多边形模型,计算评价了中国1951-2006年全国尺度及各区域尺度的月、季、汛期、年等时段的降水量,并分析了年、季、汛期等降水量的时空分布、区域特征及其年际年内(月、季)变化等基本规律;分析诊断了年、季、汛期降水量的演变趋势、突变趋势、震荡周期等特性;对比分析了长期(1961-2006年)、近期(1980-2006年)以及近期与前期(1961-1979年)降水量的变化特征及其空间变化分布。结果表明,中国近期年降水量在环渤海湾600 mm等值线有所南移,100°E以西地区年降水量普遍增多;内蒙古中西部、海河沿海、黄河中部、淮河北部近期降水量比前期偏少10%以上,嫩江中部、长江下游、闽南沿海、西藏中北部、新疆中西部则偏多10%以上,而塔里木河、伊犁河上游偏多达30%以上。 相似文献
13.
利用1961-2014年西南地区96个观测站日平均气温和降水资料、1961-2010年ERA-20C 0.5°×0.5°再分析资料,运用REOF方法、计算地表湿润指数以及改进后的地表湿润指数,研究了西南地区干旱时空分布特征。结果表明：（1）综合REOF（旋转经验正交函数）前四个模态,除川西高原外,西南地区1961-2010年整体土壤湿度有所降低,其中以四川盆地和云贵高原南部下降趋势更为明显。（2）根据REOF空间模态对西南地区做出气候区划,以历年月平均降水和干旱气候区划为基础,对地表湿润指数做出改进。其结果显示,原地表湿润指数（SHI）与改进后地表湿润指数（MSHI）空间分布特征均与年降水量的空间分布特征存在一定的相似性,指数低值区与弱降水区吻合,西北部较为干燥,云贵高原南部较为湿润。（3）从空间分布上来看,MSHI在西南南部更接近降水的空间分布且空间连续性更好。从时间序列上来看,MSHI比SHI更能体现西南地区干旱年,用MSHI识别典型干旱年份,识别能力较强。研究结果对合理配置和利用水资源,进行未来气候变化研究有重要意义。 相似文献
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2001-2015年天山山区积雪时空变化及其与温度和降水的关系 总被引：12，自引：9，他引：3
采用2001-2015年MODIS积雪和陆表温度数据、中国高时空分辨率降水数据,基于趋势分析和相关分析方法,分析了天山山区积雪时空变化及其与温度和降水的关系。结果表明：（1）年内积雪面积变化受海拔影响,海拔≤4 000 m,呈单峰型分布,积雪面积冬季大,夏季小;海拔介于4 000~≤5 000 m,积雪面积分别在春季和秋季出现两次峰值;海拔>5 000 m,积雪面积变化与低海拔相反,在夏季达到最大,冬季最小。就年际变化而言,全区积雪面积呈略微减少趋势,其中秋季略微增加,春季变化不大,冬季和夏季明显减少。（2）积雪覆盖频率受水汽来向和地形影响,呈西高东低、北高南低分布格局,与海拔呈正相关。山区大部分区域积雪覆盖频率呈减少趋势,其中海拔介于3 600~≤4 600 m的积雪覆盖频率减少最为显著。（3）在春、夏季,温度是决定积雪面积变化的主要因素,与积雪面积呈负相关;在秋、冬季,降水对积雪面积变化的贡献大于温度,与积雪面积呈正相关。（4）积雪覆盖频率整体上与年均温度呈负相关,与降水呈低度正相关,相关程度及显著性水平在空间分布上存在差异,温度对积雪覆盖频率变化的贡献大于降水。 相似文献
16.
基于遥感和GIS的青海湖流域冻融侵蚀研究 总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3
依据1∶100万西宁幅地貌图,获取了青海湖流域冻融侵蚀界线.利用遥感和GIS方法获得了流域内地形、年降水量、年均气温、土地覆被类型、土壤类型5个评价因子数据,在GIS中通过建模及空间分析,获得了青海湖流域冻融侵蚀强度等级类型及空间分布信息.结果表明:研究区冻融侵蚀发生的总面积是14 875km2,其中,轻度侵蚀和中度侵蚀居多,分别占冻融侵蚀总面积的28.75%和62.57%;剧烈侵蚀和强烈侵蚀占少部分,分别占冻融侵蚀总面积的3.33%和0.76%. 相似文献
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基于DEM的天山山区气温和降水序列推算方法研究 总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9
为了计算天山山区区域气候要素平均值序列,提出了一个新的气候序列计算方案.对天山山区17个气象站和10个水文站的1961-2000年的年气温、降水资料进行了自然正交分解(EOF),并以DEM(Digital Elevation Model)的1 km×1 km网格数据为基础,结合多元回归等方法,分别建立了前3个特征向量与经度、纬度及海拔高度因子的插值模型,由此推算出天山山区(海拔≥1500 m)年平均气温、降水序列.误差分析表明,27站实测的年平均气温序列与计算的区域平均序列值的相关系数为0.996,系统性偏差小,平均相对误差为5.5%;年降水量序列的实测值与计算值平均相对误差略大,为14.8%,相关系数为0.972.区域平均序列的计算值与测站简单的算术平均序列在量值上存在明显的差异,计算出的气温平均偏低4.3℃,降水量平均偏高43.2 mm.此方法为计算站点稀少、地形复杂的区域平均的要素时间序列方面提供了一个解决手段. 相似文献
19.
Spatio-temporal variations in precipitation are affecting agricultural production in China in the context of climate change. Based on daily precipitation data from 63 national meteorological stations on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 1963 to 2012, this paper analysed the spatio-temporal variations in precipitation in terms of precipitation days and intensity, using spatial interpolation, linear trend estimation and wavelet analysis. The results indicated that: (i) from 1963 to 2012, the number of annual precipitation days and intensity decreased gradually from the southeast to the northwest. Additionally, the distribution of the extreme precipitation index was similar to that of the annual precipitation index; (ii) the number of annual precipitation days and heavy precipitation days gradually decreased, while precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation days and extreme rainfall intensity remained relatively stable or decreased. The spatial patterns of annual variation trends were considerably different. The annual precipitation days and intensity trends are consistent with the overall trend, while that of the extreme rainfall index in some regions differs from the overall trend; (iii) the precipitation index displayed different periodic oscillations during the period, and the precipitation index values differed at different time scales. However, all the precipitation index values exhibited a 28-yr oscillation. 相似文献
20.
D. Rieser R. Pail I. M. Anjasmara J. Awange 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(7):887-900
Surface mass changes (SMCs) obtained from time-variable gravity observations of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission and precipitation data from the Australian Bureau of Metrology and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission are analysed over the Australian continent to determine whether there is a statistically significant correlation between them. The multiple linear regression analysis and the principal-component analysis techniques are applied in order to reveal the spatial and temporal variability of each data set separately as well as their mutual relationships. The study provides results and their statistical significance for the whole of Australia including the Murray Darling Basin in the southeast. The results suggest a significant decrease in water storage in the southeast of Australia and a dominant annual cycle over the majority of the continent for the four year period considered (January 2003 to December 2006), both in the surface mass and rainfall time series. The study revealed a direct relation between the data sets over most parts of Australia as confirmed by visual comparison and correlation analysis. When compared with precipitation data GRACE-derived SMCs exhibit smoother spatial and temporal variations. The latter is better suited to detect long-term trends in the presence of strong annual signals, which can adversely affect long-term trend estimates. Results regarding the magnitude of the annual signal suggest that only about a fourth of the precipitation's water masses remain sufficiently long in an area to be detected as a gravity change. The respective phases of the annual signals show an average time lag of about 40 days between precipitation and SMCs, suggesting that it takes about one to two months until a temporal gravity observation can detect a precipitation event. 相似文献