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1.
气候变化影响和适应认知的演进及对气候政策的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过分析IPCC第二工作组的5次评估报告对气候变化影响、适应的主要结论和方法的演进、原因以及对国际适应谈判和国家适应政策的影响,指出由于文献的迅速增加,影响评估方法和适应技术手段的不断成熟,以及思维的转变和意识的逐渐增强,IPCC进一步确认了气候变化已经并将继续对自然生态系统和人类社会产生广泛而深刻的影响;未来社会经济发展路径、适应和减缓行动以及风险治理将影响气候变化带来的风险。IPCC报告极大地推动了国际和各国适应气候变化科学研究和政策实践的进程。尽管中国各级各部门已逐渐将适应融入到相关政策中,但仍然存在认识、能力、体制机制等问题,需要进一步推进国家和各地的适应工作。 相似文献
2.
文中对IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第二工作组（WGII）报告关于气候恢复力发展（CRD）相关内容进行解读。CRD的概念最初由IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）引入,AR6在AR5的基础上进行了更新,正式将CRD定义为实施温室气体减缓和适应措施的过程,以支持所有人的可持续发展。新的定义更加强调了公平性原则,并且在评估内容中对不同社会选择进行了细致的描述,增强了CRD的可操作性,也强调了其紧迫性与不可逆性。报告主要从适应的角度阐述了如何在人类系统和自然系统中促成CRD的实现：城市化趋势为CRD同时带来了机遇与挑战,城市化在加剧气候变化风险的同时也会通过带动周边乡村地区的适应行动来推动CRD;保护生态系统多样性有助于保护生态系统也有助于提高其自身的恢复力,但在较高温升水平下部分适应行动将会无法实施。AR6 WGII报告评估显示,比起AR5报告的时间节点（2014年）的评估结论,当前全球CRD行动更紧迫,实行有效的、公平的应对气候变化措施迫在眉睫。 相似文献
3.
解读政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第六次评估报告(AR6)粮食系统的影响与适应,对科学认识国际气候变化对农业影响学科前沿动态具有重要意义。最新发布的IPCC AR6在深化阐述粮食生产能力、种植布局、病虫害影响的基础上,高度确信人类活动导致的气候变暖对粮食系统产生了负面影响,论述了粮食运输及消费中的气候风险,解析了粮食生产-存储-运输-消费的全链条气候变化影响,延展了影响评估归因内容并丰富了农业环境影响等相关科学认识。对于粮食系统的适应能力,强调适应及减缓协同发展的气候恢复力发展路径,适应评估从适应能力、适应方式等理论逐步转向适应实施行动和成效评估,并注重适应行动的区域特异性和有效性。本次评估强调了气候变化对作物影响的检测和归因、关注了气候和农业环境变化复合影响、倡导基于生态系统的适应方案和技术,评估了现有适应技术的可行性和成效。报告内容对中国强化农业影响评估能力及把握国际学科动态具有参考价值。 相似文献
4.
IPCC第五次评估报告第二工作组报告《气候变化2014：影响、适应和脆弱性》以气候变化风险为核心理念,对气候变化的影响进行了系统性的评估,对适应气候变化相关的需求、选择、机会、约束和局限性等方面进行了全面综合的论述。报告发布正值《联合国气候变化框架公约》谈判的关键时期,作为德班平台新协议谈判的重要信息来源,第二工作组报告将对全球长期目标、适应及其与减缓的关系、损失与损害等重要议题谈判产生重要的影响。为了在下阶段更好地开展国际谈判和国内相关工作,应深入解读报告的主要结论并做到科学的应用。 相似文献
5.
IPCC评估报告对国际气候变化谈判进程有重要影响,目前正在陆续发布的第五次评估报告已明确作为气候变化新协议谈判的重要信息来源,对讨论2020年后应对气候变化国际合作机制的影响不容忽视。最先发布的第一工作组评估报告基于新的科学观测事实、更为完善的归因分析和气候系统模式模拟结果,进一步确认了气候变暖的事实,发现了人类活动与全球温升之间因果关系的新证据,以及温室气体累积排放与温升响应之间的定量联系。本文通过分析其中一些关键结论可能的政策含义,探讨了这些关键结论对目前国际气候变化谈判进程和新协议等相关问题的可能影响,探讨了科学信息在气候变化决策过程中的作用,以及如何更为科学地理解和利用这些重要结论。 相似文献
6.
Authorship in IPCC AR5 and its implications for content: climate change and Indigenous populations in WGII 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This essay examines the extent to which we can expect Indigenous Knowledge, understanding, and voices on climate change (??Indigenous content??) to be captured in WGII of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), based on an analysis of chapter authorship. Reviewing the publishing history of 309 chapter authors (CAs) to WGII, we document 9 (2.9%) to have published on climate change and Indigenous populations and involved as authors in 6/30 chapters. Drawing upon recent scholarship highlighting how authorship affect structure and content of assessment reports, we argue that, unaddressed, this will affect the extent to which Indigenous content is examined and assessed. While it is too late to alter the structure of AR5, there are opportunities to prioritize the recruitment of contributing authors and reviewers with expertise on Indigenous issues, raise awareness among CAs on the characteristics of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability faced by Indigenous peoples, and highlight how Indigenous perspectives can help broaden our understanding of climate change and policy interventions. 相似文献
7.
适应举措对降低人类和生态系统的气候变化风险有着积极的影响。IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第二工作组（WGII）报告全面评估了适应的可行性和有效性,深入评估了适应局限性和不良适应。报告认为,个人、地方、区域和国家各级的适应行动都在增加,但是在做决策时需考虑不良适应的风险。报告从经济、技术、制度、社会、环境和地球物理这6个维度,对23个适应措施的可行性进行了评估;这些适应措施分布在陆地、海洋与生态系统,城乡与基础设施系统,能源系统以及跨部门等四大系统,其中,基于森林的适应、具有恢复力的电力系统、能源可靠性等适应措施具有高信度的高可行性。适应措施的可行性和有效性会随着气候变暖的增加而降低,需要采用多种措施来降低未来气候变化风险。 相似文献
8.
IPCC科学评估报告研究进展 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
各国政府间气候变化专门委员会（ＩＰＣＣ）第一工作组（ＷＧ１）在１９９０年和１９９５年先后出版两次科学评估报告,并且在１９９２年还出版了对第一次报告的补充报告．现在,ＩＰＣＣ又准备在２００１年出版第三次科学评估报告．本文着重分析与介绍近１０年来ＩＰＣＣ科学评估报告的研究进展． 相似文献
9.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the report of Working Group III of the Sixth Assessment Report "climate change 2022: mitigating climate change". The report accessed and summarized the latest research progress on climate change mitigation since the release of the Fifth Assessment Report, which will provide an important reference for the international community to further understand climate change mitigation actions, system transformation, and the pursuit of sustainable development. The report pointed out that human activities had cumulatively emitted about 2.4 trillion tons of CO2 from 1850 to 2019, of which 58% was emitted before 1990. In order to control the level of global temperature rise in the future, deep and immediate mitigation actions are required. In both low and minimum emission scenarios, fossil energy needs to be greatly reduced; renewable energy will be the mainstay of future energy supply; achieving carbon neutrality requires relying on negative emission technologies and increasing carbon sinks. Technological progress is one of the key conditions for helping the world combat climate change. Accelerated and equitable climate action is critical to sustainable development. The report's conclusions once again show that China's carbon neutrality target is in line with the mitigation path of the Paris Agreement's temperature rise target of less than 2 °C and striving to achieve 1.5°C. In the future, China should strengthen special research programs on the national concerns and key contents covered in the report. While strengthening scientific interpretation and effective use of the report's conclusions, it is also necessary to actively participate in the IPCC scientific assessment process, actively contribute Chinese wisdom, and contribute to the international dissemination of Chinese climate governance concepts. © 2022 Chinese Journal of Digestive Endoscopy All rights reserved. 相似文献
10.
2022年4月4日,IPCC第六次评估报告第三工作组《气候变化2022:减缓气候变化》报告和决策者摘要发布。报告全面评估了2010年以来减缓气候变化领域的最新科学进展,为国际社会深度认识和理解全球温室气体排放情况、不同温升水平下的减排路径以及可持续发展背景下的气候变化减缓和适应行动等提供了重要科学依据。基于报告主要结论,围绕温室气体排放的区域差异、减缓路径分类、与土地利用相关的排放评估及CO去除技术评估等方面的亮点,文中提出在应对气候变化减缓政策行动中,中国应坚定“双碳”战略目标,在综合考虑经济发展阶段和资源禀赋差异背景下,将可持续发展、公平和消除贫困植根于社会发展愿景中实施减缓路径,并加快提升气候变化综合评估核心科学技术的研发进度,以进一步提升国际影响力和话语权。 相似文献
11.
Vulnerability is an emerging concept for climate science and policy. Over the past decade, efforts to assess vulnerability
to climate change triggered a process of theory development and assessment practice, which is reflected in the reports of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper reviews the historical development of the conceptual ideas
underpinning assessments of vulnerability to climate change. We distinguish climate impact assessment, first- and second-generation
vulnerability assessment, and adaptation policy assessment. The different generations of assessments are described by means
of a conceptual framework that defines key concepts of the assessment and their analytical relationships. The purpose of this
conceptual framework is two-fold: first, to present a consistent visual glossary of the main concepts underlying the IPCC
approach to vulnerability and its assessment; second, to show the evolution of vulnerability assessments. This evolution is
characterized by the progressive inclusion of non-climatic determinants of vulnerability to climate change, including adaptive
capacity, and the shift from estimating expected damages to attempting to reduce them. We hope that this paper improves the
understanding of the main approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment and their evolution, not only within the climate
change community but also among researchers from other scientific communities, who are sometimes puzzled by the unfamiliar
use of technical terms in the context of climate change. 相似文献
12.
IPCC第五次评估报告对气候变化风险及风险管理的新认知 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
IPCC第五次评估报告第二工作组报告在气候变化风险及风险管理方面聚焦于气候变化对领域和区域的不利影响。在综合分析与气候变化相关危害、暴露度和脆弱性的基础上,提出了气候变化风险的评估框架。风险不仅来自气候变化本身,同时也来自人类社会发展和治理过程。报告首次提出了新生风险,归纳总结了气候变化带来的关键风险,评估了不同温升下气候变化5个“关注理由”的风险水平。在风险管理过程中,由于适应和减缓的局限性,剩余风险是不可避免的。未来,若全球平均温度升高4℃（较工业革命以前）将加剧人类和社会生态系统广泛的、严重的和不可逆影响的风险。 相似文献
13.
对IPCC第五次评估报告中有关淡水资源相关结论的解读 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
IPCC第五次评估报告指出,与淡水资源相关的气候变化风险随着温室气体浓度增加而显著增加。气候变化已经导致区域降水发生显著变化;多年冻土、冰川持续萎缩,积雪不断减少;降雪区春季最大径流量逐渐提前,夏季干旱不断加剧。预估结果表明：21世纪温室气体排放将加剧淡水资源相关风险。如显著减少亚热带干旱地区的地表水和地下水资源,加剧行业之间用水竞争;极端事件（如极端降水）明显影响原水水质,威胁用水安全;气候变化同时将导致农业灌溉用水量增加、能源生产效率降低等不利影响。报告指出需采取硬性基础设施建设和软性制度措施建设相结合的适应措施,加强水资源管理,克服气候变化的负面影响,减少损失。 相似文献
14.
自然气候变异与人为气候变化对径流影响研究进展 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
刘春蓁 《气候变化研究进展》2008,4(3):133-139
在回顾IPCC于1990-2007年4次关于气候变化对径流影响的评估报告进展的基础上,将第一次与第二次评估报告归纳为第一代--以气候均值变化对径流影响及其适应为主要特征;第三次与第四次评估报告为第二代--突出人为气候变化与自然气候变异对径流影响及其适应问题,分析了常规的气候变化对水文水资源影响评估方法的发展过程及存在的问题。研究结果反映了年代际时间尺度的自然气候变异的影响,而未能考虑与极端事件发生频次和强度变化密切相联的日、季和年际尺度的气候变异的影响,从而低估了气候变暖对洪水、干旱以及农业灌溉需水的负面作用。在介绍国内外研究的基础上,为第五次IPCC评估报告提出了加强交叉学科综合研究的建议。 相似文献
15.
In this paper we draw on Science and Technology (STS) approaches to develop a comparative analytical account of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental science-policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). The establishment of both of these organizations, in 1988 and 2012 respectively, represented important ‘constitutional moments’ in the global arrangement of scientific assessment and its relationship to environmental policymaking. Global environmental assessments all share some similarities, operating at the articulation between science and policy and pursuing explicit societal goals. Although the IPCC and IPBES have different objectives, they are both intergovernmental processes geared towards the provision of knowledge to inform political debates about, respectively, climate change and biodiversity loss. In spite of these similarities, we show that there are significant differences in their knowledge practices and these differences have implications for environmental governance. We do this by comparing the IPCC and IPBES across three dimensions: conceptual frameworks, scenarios and consensus .We argue that, broadly speaking, the IPCC has produced a ‘view from nowhere’, through a reliance on mathematical modelling to produce a consensual picture of global climate change, which is then ‘downscaled’ to considerations of local impacts and responses. By contrast IPBES, through its contrasting conceptual frameworks and practices of argumentation, appears to seek a ‘view from everywhere’, inclusive of epistemic plurality, and through which a global picture emerges through an aggregation of more placed-based knowledges. We conclude that, despite these aspirations, both organizations in fact offer ‘views from somewhere’: situated sets of knowledge marked by politico-epistemic struggles and shaped by the interests, priorities and voices of certain powerful actors. Characterizing this ‘somewhere’ might be aided by the concept of institutional epistemology, a term we propose to capture how particular knowledge practices become stabilized within international expert organizations. We suggest that such a concept, by drawing attention to the institutions’ knowledge practices, helps reveal their world-making effects and, by doing so, enables more reflexive governance of both expert organizations and of global environmental change in general. 相似文献
16.
刘春蓁 《气候变化研究进展》2008,4(03):133-139
在回顾IPCC于1990-2007年4次关于气候变化对径流影响的评估报告进展的基础上,将第一次与第二次评估报告归纳为第一代--以气候均值变化对径流影响及其适应为主要特征;第三次与第四次评估报告为第二代--突出人为气候变化与自然气候变异对径流影响及其适应问题,分析了常规的气候变化对水文水资源影响评估方法的发展过程及存在的问题。研究结果反映了年代际时间尺度的自然气候变异的影响,而未能考虑与极端事件发生频次和强度变化密切相联的日、季和年际尺度的气候变异的影响,从而低估了气候变暖对洪水、干旱以及农业灌溉需水的负面作用。在介绍国内外研究的基础上,为第五次IPCC评估报告提出了加强交叉学科综合研究的建议。 相似文献
17.
There is significant potential in young talent for enhancing the credibility of the scientific assessments such as the IPCC’s by contributing to quality assurance and quality control. In this essay, we reflect on an experiment that was done by the Dutch government as part of its government review of a contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). In an effort to review the entire Working Group II contribution to the AR5 within the official review period for the Second Order Draft (SOD), the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency turned to PhD students. This article shows that a systematic review focusing on transparency and errors of a large scientific assessment document using young talented scientists can be successful if certain conditions are met. The reviewers need to have intrinsic motivation to conduct the review. There needs to be a communication plan that fosters engagement and a clear methodology to guide the reviewers through their task. Based on this experiment in review, we reflect on the wider potential for openness and crowdsourcing in scientific assessment processes such as the IPCC’s. 相似文献
18.
Effective communication of uncertainty in the IPCC reports 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
19.
《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》（SROCC）于2019年9月在IPCC第一工作组和第二工作组第二次联合大会上得到审议通过,并得到了IPCC第51届全会接受和批准。文中主要对该报告中海洋和冰冻圈变化有关的极端事件、突变及其影响与风险的有关评估内容进行了综合分析。SROCC评估得到的最新结果显示：气候变化背景下冰冻圈变化引起的山体滑坡、雪崩和冰川洪水事件频发。海洋有关的海洋热浪频发,极端El Niño事件加强,大西洋经向翻转环流减弱。同时,沿海地区极端海平面上升,极端海浪增高,极端热带气旋影响增加。这些变化,比如海洋热浪等,是可以归因于人为增暖的。预估结果表明,海洋和冰冻圈变化引起的极端事件未来会进一步加剧。而这些变化已经影响了高山、极地以及沿海地区人群的生产和生活,以及海洋和冰冻圈的生态系统服务功能。应对这一系列变化,需要更加精准的预测和预警,包括对极端事件和突变的季节预测和年际、年代际预测,以便做好充足的准备来降低极端事件风险。同时,加强应对极端事件的科普教育和提供因地制宜的灾害重建措施等也是风险管理的重要环节。 相似文献
20.
This study demonstrates that IPCC Third Assessment Report is strongly dominated by Natural sciences, especially the Earth sciences. The Social sciences are dominated by Economics. The IPCC assessment also results in the separation of the Earth, Biological and Social sciences. The integration that occurs is mainly between closely related scientific fields. The research community consequently imposes a physical and economic bias and a separation of scientific fields that the IPCC reproduces in the policy sphere. It is argued that this physical and economic bias distorts a comprehensive understanding of climate change and that the weak integration of scientific fields hinders climate change from being fully addressed as an integral environmental and social problem. If climate change is to be understood, evaluated and responded to in its fullness, the IPCC must broaden its knowledge base and challenge the anthropocentric worldview that places humans outside of nature. 相似文献