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近40年郑州冬夏气温突变的诊断分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
采用Mann-Kendall方法，分析了郑州市南郊气象观测站近40年来冬季和夏季气温突变的特点，并进一步分析了其与北郊城市站的温差序列的突变特点，结果表明，冬季和夏季的气温均存在突变，且在20世纪90年代后期冬季气温增温较快。 相似文献
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南亚、东南亚地区大气环流季节突变的多年状况 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在已有研究成果的基础上，本文利用FGGE-IIIb资料及欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）1980至1988年七层全球分析资料，分析了1979至1988年南亚、东南亚地区由冬至夏大气环流季节突变的状况。利用与这一地区主要天气系统密切相关的某些大气环流指标来描述该地区的季节突变，并根据这些指标的逐候演变、信噪比及候平均环流形势确定了突变发生的时段。在此基础上，本文讨论了季节突变的多年状况，用多年资料证实了南亚、东南亚地区由冬至夏季节演变过程存在着两次突变，分析了突变方式在区域间、高低层间及年际间的差异。 相似文献
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在综合分析了近几十年气候资料的基础上，揭示了本世纪60年代的一次亚非夏季风十年尺度的突变。这次突变在地面温度场上表现为突变前亚非大陆是正距平，印度洋和西太平洋为负距平，海陆温差较强；突变后相反，海陆温差减弱。地面气压由突变前亚非大陆强热低压中心转变为突变后的弱低压中心。同时突变前北非和东亚夏季风增强，而突变后明显减弱。这次十年尺度的气候突变突出表现了东亚季风、印度季风和北非季风明显的变化同步性，而最显著的特征是在行星尺度的降水场上从北非撒哈拉－萨赫勒、中东、印度北部到华北干旱半干旱带上由多雨变为少雨的雨量减少带。 相似文献
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本文采用均值差异假设检验研究了中国、北半球和全球气温历史序列的突变现象。分析表明，中国气温从本世纪以来，在40年代末50年代初曾出现一次由暖到冷的突变。北半球和全球均曾在19世纪末和本世纪20年代发生了突变现象。功率谱分析表明，气温的突变指数曲线具有明显的周期性。一系列比较研究证明，按照分析出的突变点将气温序列分段建模，无论数值误差还是变化趋势，效果均优于整段序列的模型。所以，对未来气温变化趋势作预测，应首先搞清楚未来会处在怎样的气候阶段中，会不会出现突变。研究表明，本文叙述的均生函数累加延拓的时序建模方案，对气温序列有很好的拟合和预测效果。 相似文献
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中国、北半球和全球的气温突变分析及其趋势预测研究 总被引：37，自引：0，他引：37
本文采用均值差异假设检验研究了中国、北半球和全球气温历史序列的突变现象。分析表明，中国气温从本世纪以来，在４０年代末扣年代初曾出现一次由暖到冷的突变。北半球和全球均曾在１９世纪末和本世纪２０年代发生了突变现象。功率谱分析表明，气温的突变指数曲线具有明显的周期性。一系列比较研究证明，按照分析出的突变点将气温序列分段建模，无论数值误差还是变化趋势，效果均优于整段序列的模型。所以，对未来气温变化趋势作预测，应首先搞清楚未来会处在怎样的气候阶段中，会不会出现突变。研究表明，本文叙述的均生函数累加延拓的时序建模方案，对气温序列有很好的拟合和预测效果。 相似文献
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气候突变的定义和检测方法 总被引：543，自引：15，他引：543
气候突变现象及其理论的研究是近代气候学一个新兴的研究领域.本文是气候突变研究评述的第一部分,着重讨论了突变,主要是气候突变的定义和气候突变信号的各种检测方法.把气候突变归纳为四类,即均值突变、变率突变、转折突变和翘翘板(seasaw)突变.并通过Mann-Kendall法的检测,发现在本世纪20年代经历了一次全球范围的气候突变. 相似文献
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采用二项式平滑方法,对贵阳市自1921～1995年共75年各季、年的平均温度和降雨量曲线分别作平滑分析,并在此基础上用费希尔最优分割法和Yamamot法对其进行气候均值突变分析,发现贵阳市75年来各季、年的平均温度和降雨量存在突变现象。 相似文献
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利用ERA5再分析资料和融合降水数据,针对2018年5月21-22日发生在中国四川盆地西南部的一次山地突发性暴雨,首先对其降水强度和天气概况进行相关分析,并且通过绕流和爬流方程,将流场分解为绕流和爬流分量,重点探讨地形对于过山气流的影响及其对降水的作用。研究表明:受欧亚中高纬低槽槽后西北气流引导冷空气南下和西南低涡东移的共同影响,在四川盆地西南部山区发生了一次强降水过程。此次降水范围较广、强度大并且降水时间集中,是一次典型的山地突发性暴雨事件。由于地形的阻挡作用,使得来自东北方向的气流发生旋转,产生绕流运动,在盆地内形成局地涡旋。同时盆地和盆周山地之间的地形高度差强迫过山气流产生爬流运动,导致垂直上升运动加强。在绕流与爬流的共同作用下,为此次突发性暴雨的发生发展提供了有利的流场条件。进一步分析得出地形区域内爬流分量略大于绕流分量,即气流对于山地屏障的地形适应以爬流运动为主,绕流运动次之,地形爬流产生的垂直上升运动与雨带的分布密切相关。 相似文献
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To investigate the suitability of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with regard to windbreak aerodynamics, simulations are
performed with a state-of-the-art numerical scheme (Fluent) and compared against experimental data for two- and three-dimensional
disturbances, namely the case of a long straight porous shelter fence and the case of a shelter fence erected in a square
about an enclosed plot. A thorough sensitivity study quantifies the impact of numerical choices on the simulation (e.g. grid-point
density, domain size, turbulence closure), and leads to guidelines that should ensure objective simulation of windbreak flows.
On a fine grid Fluent’s “realizable k–ε closure” gives results that are in qualitative accord with the observed mean winds. 相似文献
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A Field Study of the Mean Pressure About a Windbreak 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
John D. Wilson 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1997,85(3):327-358
To provide additional field data for assessingwindbreak flow models, mean ground-level pressurehas been measured upstream and downstream from along porous fence (height H = 1.25 m, resistancecoefficient k
r
= 2.4). Measurements were madeduring periods of near-neutral stability and near-normallyincident flow, with the fence standing on bare soil(roughness length, z
0
0.8 cm;H/z
0
160), or within a plant canopy. The mean pressure field,measured far from the ends of the fence, was foundto be quite insensitive to mean wind direction(
, zero for perpendicular flow), for|
| less than about 25°.In the absence of a canopy, during each measurementperiod the minimum pressure occurred at the closestsampling location to leeward of the windbreak, thepressure-gradient in most cases beingmaximally-adverse in the immediate lee, and decayingwith increasing downwind distance (x). On one day ofmeasurements, however, the pressure gradient over2 x/H 6 (H = windbreak height) resembled theleeward plateau identified by Wang and Taklein their numerical studies. Perhaps thisoccasional feature was only due to instrumenterror. Nevertheless a plateau of sorts wasindicated in similar measurements by Judd andPrendergast (with H = 1.92 m, z
0
1.2 cm;H/z
0
160, k
r
3). Therefore,existence of a leeward pressure plateau behind athin fence cannot be definitely ruled out.When the windbreak was placed in a canopy, minimumsurface pressure was displaced downwind. Thisagrees with the wind-tunnel study of Judd, Raupach and Finnigan,and is consistent with a simple simulation reported here. 相似文献
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青藏高原绕流和爬流的气候学特征 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
本文利用1951～2008 年NCEP/NCAR 再分析资料, 通过绕流和爬流方程, 将高原附近表层风场分解为绕流分量和爬流分量两部分, 计算出了实际大气中的绕流和爬流运动的强度, 分别探讨它们的气候态特征。结果表明:高原主体年平均绕流场围绕高原地形并在高原西南部(32°N, 75°E)附近产生分支, 分支点下游的高原主体南部和北部分别表现为气旋性和反气旋性流型;年平均的爬流分量场沿喜马拉雅山脉辐散, 高原主体为偏南上坡风, 东北部为偏北上坡风。夏季绕流场为气旋式流型, 中心位于高原中部(35°N, 90°E)附近;秋季绕流场围绕高原地形边缘基本为一个反气旋流型。夏季, 高原主体偏南风爬流与偏北风爬流在高原南北中线附近辐合, 除夏季外, 沿高原南侧喜马拉雅山脉为爬流辐散区。高原主体和高原附近的关键区内, 绕流和爬流存在不同的季节循环特征。从绕流和爬流分解公式出发, 本文详细探讨了表面流场的绕流和爬流运动各分量对地形高度及地形梯度的依赖性:经向绕流与纬向绕流比值、经向爬流与纬向爬流分量比值为仅依赖于地形高度的定常值。年平均的绕流及爬流矢量强度随着所处地形高度的升高而逐步增强;从区域分布的角度而言, 高原附近绕流强于爬流的区域范围较广, 绕流占主导地位。地形纯动力强迫产生的爬流运动与观测资料中高原附近的垂直运动具有很高的位置对应关系, 但冬季和夏季均存在强度上的差异。 相似文献
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The Relationship between Precipitation and Airflow over the Tibetan Plateau in Boreal Summer 
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下载免费PDF全文 Based on the observation data and the reanalysis datasets, the variability and the circulation features influencing precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are investigated. Taking into account the effects of topography, surface winds are deconstructed into flow-around and flow-over components relative to the TP. Climatologically, the flow-around component mainly represents cyclonic circulation in the TP during the summer. The transition zone of total precipitation in the summer parallels the convergence belt between the southerlies and the northerlies of the flow-over component. The leading mode of rainfall anomalies in the TP has a meridional dipole structure, and the first principal component (PC1) mainly depicts the variation of rainfall in the southern TP. The wet southern TP experiences strengthened flow-over, which in turn mechanistically favors intensified ascent forced by the flow-over component. In addition, variations in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) have an important role in influencing the flow over the southern TP, and the ISM ultimately impacts the precipitation over southern TP. 相似文献
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Results of laboratory and numerical experiments on both homogeneous and density-stratified flow over single, bluff obstacles of various shapes are presented. The obstacle height is in most cases of the same order as the base diameter and the major controlling (flow) parameter is the Froude number, defined here as Fh=U/Nh, where U is the (uniform) upstream velocity, h the obstacle height and N is the buoyancy frequency. Attention is concentrated, firstly, on the case of homogeneous flows over rather weakly tapered obstacles and, secondly, for bodies whose height is similar to their base width, on the case Fh=0.1, representing stratification sufficiently strong that lee-wave motions do not play a significant role in the flow dynamics. For right-circular cones it is shown that the sectional contributions to the total fluctuating side force (lift) show significant phase variations up the height of the obstacle, which are not always reflected in the developed vortex street further downstream. For some obstacle shapes, the vortex lines linking the von Karman eddies at different heights can be significantly tilted, particularly in the upper part of the wake. Vortex convection speeds do not appear generally to vary greatly with height and, as found in previous work, the shedding frequency remains constant with height, despite the strong variation of cross-stream obstacle width. By comparison with the homogeneous results, it is suggested that the stratification enhances the shedding instability, which would otherwise be very weak for squat obstacles, but does not annihilate the ability of the flow at one level to influence that at another. 相似文献
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We investigate numerically and theoretically the nonlinear evolution of a parallel shear flow at moderate Reynolds number which has embedded within it a mixed layer of intermediate fluid. The two relatively thin strongly stratified density interfaces are centered on the edges of the shear layer. We are particularly interested in the development of primary and secondary instabilities. We present the results of a stability analysis which predicts that such flows may be unstable to stationary vortical disturbances which are a generalization of an inviscid instability first considered by G.I. Taylor. We investigate the behavior of these “Taylor billows” at finite amplitude through two-dimensional numerical simulations. We observe that the braid regions connecting adjacent primary Taylor billows are susceptible to secondary, inherently two-dimensional instabilities. We verify that these secondary instabilities, which take the form of small elliptical vortices, arise due to a local intensification of the spanwise vorticity in the braid region. 相似文献
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Turbulence Characteristics of the Stable Boundary Layer Over a Mid-Latitude Glacier. Part I: A Combination of Katabatic and Large-Scale Forcing 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Profile and eddy-correlation (heights of 4 and 10 m) measurements performed on the Pasterze glacier (Austria) are used to study the characteristics of the stable boundary layer under conditions of katabatic and large-scale forcing. We consider cases where large-scale forcing results in a downslope (or following) ambient wind. The analysis of averaged spectra and cospectra reveals low frequency perturbations that have a large influence on the variances of temperature and horizontal wind components and also alter the cospectra of momentum and sensible heat flux. Only the spectrum of the vertical wind speed is comparable to universal spectra. The low frequency perturbations occur as brief intermittent events and result in downward entrainment of ambient air thereby producing enhanced downward sensible heat fluxes and downward as well as upward momentum fluxes with various magnitudes and timescales. After the variances were high pass filtered, the normalised standard deviations of wind speed and temperature compare favourably to findings in the literature within the range 0>z/L>0.5. For larger z/L they deviate as a result of an increased influence from low frequency perturbations and thus non-stationarity. In line with this, the turbulent kinetic energy budget (at 4 m height) indicates that production (shear) is in balance with destruction (buoyancy and dissipation) within the range 0>z/L>0.3. Non-dimensional gradients of wind speed within the range 0>z/L>0.3 have a slope of about 3.5. The scatter for the dimensionless temperature gradient is quite large, and the slope is comparable to that for wind speed gradients. For z/L>0.3 the imbalance in the turbulent kinetic energy budget grows and non-dimensional gradients for wind speed and temperature deviate considerably from accepted values as a result of increased non-stationarity. Average roughness lengths for momentum and sensible heat flux derived from wind speed and temperature profiles are respectively 1 × 10-3 m and 6 × 10-5 m, consistent with the literature. The ratio (z0h/z0m) compares to those predicted by surface renewal models. A variation of this ratio with the roughness Reynolds number is not indicated by our data. 相似文献