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1.
Typhoon Durian (2001),which formed over the South China Sea (SCS),was simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The genesis of typhoon Durian which formed in the monsoon trough was reproduced by numerical simulations. The simulated results agree reasonably well with observations. Two numerical experiments in which the sea surface temperature (SST) was either decreased or increased were performed to investigate the impact of the SST on the genesis of the ty-phoon. When the SST was decreased by 5℃ uniformly for all grids in the model,the winds calculated became divergent in the lower troposphere and convergent in the upper troposphere,creating conditions in which the amount of total latent heat release (TLHR) was low and the tropical cyclone (TC) could not be formed. This simulation shows the importance of the convergence in the lower tropo-sphere and the divergence in the upper troposphere for the genesis of the initial vortex. When the SST was increased by 1℃ uni-formly for all grids,a stronger typhoon was generated in the results with an increase of about 10 m s-1 in the maximum surface wind speed. Only minor differences in intensity were noted during the first 54 h in the simulation with the warmer SST,but apparent dif-ferences in intensity occurred after 54 h when the vortex began to strengthen to typhoon strength. This experiment shows that warmer SST will speed the strengthening from tropical storm strength to typhoon strength and increase the maximum intensity reached,while only minor impact can be seen during the earlier stage of genesis before the TC reaches the tropical storm strength. The results sug-gest that the amount of TLHR may be the dominant factor in determining the formation and the intensification of the TC.  相似文献   

2.
The influence of summer monsoon on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is explored using an empirical genesis potential (GP) index. The annual cycle of cyclogenesis frequency over the BoB shows an asymmetric bimodal pattern with the maximum genesis number appearing in late October and the second largest in early May. The two peaks correspond to the withdrawal and onset of the BoB summer monsoon, respectively. The semimonthly GP index calculated without TC days over the BoB is consistent with TC genesis frequency, indicating that the index captures the monsoon-induced changes in the environment that are responsible for the seasonal variation of TC genesis frequency. Of the four environmental variables (i.e., low-level vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, potential intensity, and vertical wind shear) that enter into the GP index, the potential intensity makes the largest contribution to the bimodal distribution, followed by vertical wind shear due to small wind speed during the summer monsoon onset and withdrawal. The difference in TC genesis frequency between autumn and late spring is mainly owing to the relative humid-ity difference because a divergence (convergence) of horizontal moisture flux associated with cold dry northerlies (warm wet wester-lies) dominates the BoB in late spring (autumn).  相似文献   

3.
Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the South China Sea (SCS) during 1979-2008 underwent a decadal variation around 1993. A total of 55 TCs formed in the SCS from May to September during 1994- 2008, about twice that during 1979-1993 (27). During the TC peak season (July-September, JAS), there were 43TCs from 1994-2008, but only 17 during 1979-1993. For July in particular, 13TCs formed from 1994-2008, but there were none during 1979-1993. The change in TC number is associated with changes of key environmental conditions in atmosphere and ocean. Compared to 1979-1993, the subtropical high was significantly weaker and was displaced more eastward during 1994-2008. In the former period, a stronger subtropical high induced downward flow, inhibiting TC formation. In the latter period, vertical wind shear and outgoing longwave radiation all weakened. Mid-level (850-500hPa) humidity, and relative vorticity were higher. Sea surface temperature and upper layer heat content were also higher in the area. All these factors favor TC genesis during the latter period. The decadal change of TC genesis led to more landfalling TCs in Southern China during the period 1994-2008, which contributed to an abrupt increase in regional rainfall.  相似文献   

4.
This study examines the seasonal variations of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea (SCS) using a genesis potential (GP) index developed by Emanuel and Nolan. How different environmental factors (including low-level vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, vertical wind shear, and potential intensity) contribute to these variations is investigated. Composite anomalies of the GP index are produced for the summer and winter monsoons separately. These composites replicate the observed seasonal variations of the observed frequency and location of tropical cyclogenesis over the SCS. The degree of contribution by each factor in different regions is determined quantitatively by producing composites of modified indices in which only one of the contributing factors varies, with the others set to climatology. Over the northern SCS, potential intensity makes the largest contributions to the seasonal variations in tropical cyclogenesis. Over the southern SCS, the low-level relative vorticity plays the primary role in the seasonal modulation of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency, and the vertical wind shear plays the secondary role. Thermodynamic factors play more important roles for the seasonal variations in tropical cyclogenesis over the northern SCS, while dynamic factors are more important in the seasonal modulation of TC genesis frequency over the southern SCS.  相似文献   

5.
The relationship between the upper ocean thermal structure and the genesis locations of tropical cyclones （TCs） in the South China Sea （SCS） is investigated by using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center （JTWC） best-track archives and high resolution （1/4 degree） temperature analyses of the world＇s oceans in this paper In the monthly mean genesis positions of TCs from 1945 to 2005 in the SCS, the mean sea surface temperature （SST） was 28.8℃ and the mean depth of 26℃ water was 53.1 m. From the monthly distribution maps of genesis positions of TCs, SST and the depth of 26℃ water in the SCS, we discovered that there existed regions with SST exceeding 26℃ and 26℃ water depth exceeding 50m where no tropical cyclones formed from 1945 to 2005 in the SCS, which suggests that there were other factors unfavorable for TC formation in these regions.  相似文献   

6.
This study examines the modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea(SCS) by the El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) Modoki during the boreal summer. Results reveal that there were more tropical cyclones(TCs) formed over the SCS during central Pacific warming years and less TC frequency during central Pacific cooling years. How different environmental factors(including low-level relative vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, vertical wind shear, and potential intensity) contribute to this influence is investigated, using a genesis potential(GP) index developed by Emanuel and Nolan. Composite anomalies of the GP index are produced for central Pacific warming and cooling years separately, which could account for the changes of TC frequency over the SCS in different ENSO Modoki phases. The degree of contribution by each factor is determined quantitatively by producing composites of modified indices in which only one of the contributing factors varies, with the others set to climatology. The results suggest that the vertical wind shear and low-level relative vorticity, which are associated with the ENSO Modoki-induced anomalous circulations in Matsuno-Gill patterns, make the largest contributions to the ENSO Modoki modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the SCS as implied by the GP index. These results highlight the important roles of dynamic factors in the modulation of TC frequency over the SCS by the ENSO Modoki during the boreal summer.  相似文献   

7.
To understand the impacts of large-scale circulation during the evolution of El Nino cycle on tropical cyclones(TC) is important and useful for TC forecast.Based on best-track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction for the period 1975-2014,we investigated the influences of two types of El Nino,the eastern Pacific El Nino(EP-El Nino) and central Pacific El Nino(CP-E1 Nino),on global TC genesis.We also examined how various environmental factors contribute to these influences using a modified genesis potential index(MGPI).The composites reproduced for two types of El Nino,from their developing to decaying phases,were able to qualitatively replicate observed cyclogenesis in several basins except for the Arabian Sea.Certain factors of MGPI with more influence than others in various regions are identified.Over the western North Pacific,five variables were all important in the two El Nino types during developing summer(July-August-September) and fall(OctoberNovember-December),and decaying spring(April-May-June) and summer.In the eastern Pacific,vertical shear and relative vorticity are the crucial factors for the two types of El Nino during developing and decaying summers.In the Atlantic,vertical shear,potential intensity and relative humidity are important for the opposite variation of EP-and CP-E1 Ninos during decaying summers.In the Southern Hemisphere,the five variables have varying contributions to TC genesis variation during peak season(January-February-March) for the two types of El Nino.In the Bay of Bengal,relative vorticity,humidity and omega may be responsible for clearly reduced TC genesis during developing fall for the two types and slightly suppressed TC cyclogenesis during EP-El Nino decaying spring.In the Arabian Sea,the EP-El Nino generates a slightly positive anomaly of TC genesis during developing falls and decaying springs,but the MGPI failed to capture this variation.  相似文献   

8.
Yang  Yuxing  Yang  Lei  Wang  Faming 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2017,35(2):452-465

To understand the impacts of large-scale circulation during the evolution of El Niño cycle on tropical cyclones (TC) is important and useful for TC forecast. Based on best-track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction for the period 1975–2014, we investigated the influences of two types of El Niño, the eastern Pacific El Niño (EP-El Niño) and central Pacific El Niño (CP-El Niño), on global TC genesis. We also examined how various environmental factors contribute to these influences using a modified genesis potential index (MGPI). The composites reproduced for two types of El Niño, from their developing to decaying phases, were able to qualitatively replicate observed cyclogenesis in several basins except for the Arabian Sea. Certain factors of MGPI with more influence than others in various regions are identified. Over the western North Pacific, five variables were all important in the two El Niño types during developing summer (July–August–September) and fall (October–November–December), and decaying spring (April–May–June) and summer. In the eastern Pacific, vertical shear and relative vorticity are the crucial factors for the two types of El Niño during developing and decaying summers. In the Atlantic, vertical shear, potential intensity and relative humidity are important for the opposite variation of EP- and CP-El Niños during decaying summers. In the Southern Hemisphere, the five variables have varying contributions to TC genesis variation during peak season (January–February–March) for the two types of El Niño. In the Bay of Bengal, relative vorticity, humidity and omega may be responsible for clearly reduced TC genesis during developing fall for the two types and slightly suppressed TC cyclogenesis during EP-El Niño decaying spring. In the Arabian Sea, the EP-El Niño generates a slightly positive anomaly of TC genesis during developing falls and decaying springs, but the MGPI failed to capture this variation.

  相似文献   

9.
In this study, three high frequent occurrence regions of tropical cyclones(TCs), i.e., the northern South China Sea(the region S), the south Philippine Sea(the region P) and the region east of Taiwan Island(the region E), are defined with frequency of TC's occurrence at each grid for a 45-year period(1965–2009), where the frequency of occurrence(FO) of TCs is triple the mean value of the whole western North Pacific. Over the region S, there are decreasing trends in the FO of TCs, the number of TCs' tracks going though this region and the number of TCs' genesis in this region. Over the region P, the FO and tracks demonstrate decadal variation with periods of 10–12 year, while over the region E, a significant 4–5 years' oscillation appears in both FO and tracks. It is demonstrated that the differences of TCs' variation in these three different regions are mainly caused by the variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) at different time scales. The westward shift of WPSH is responsible for the northwesterly anomaly over the region S which inhibits westward TC movement into the region S. On the decadal timescale, the WPSH stretches northwestward because of the anomalous anticyclone over the northwestern part of the region P, and steers more TCs reaching the region P in the greater FO years of the region P. The retreating of the WPSH on the interannual time scale is the main reason for the FO's oscillation over the region E.  相似文献   

10.
Wind measurements derived from QuikSCAT data were compared with those measured by anemometer on Yongxing Island in the South China Sea (SCS) for the period from April 2008 to November 2009. The comparison confirms that QuikSCAT estimates of wind speed and direction are generally accurate, except for the extremes of high wind speeds (>13.8m/s) and very low wind speeds (<1.5m/s) where direction is poorly predicted. In-situ observations show that the summer monsoon in the northern SCS starts between May 6 and June 1. From March 13, 2010 to August 31, 2010, comparisons of sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall from AMSR-E with data from a buoy located at Xisha Islands, as well as wind measurements derived from ASCAT and observations from an automatic weather station show that QuikSCAT, ASCAT and AMSR-E data are good enough for research. It is feasible to optimize the usage of remote-sensing data if validated with in-situ measurements. Remarkable changes were observed in wind, barometric pressure, humidity, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), air temperature, rainfall and SST during the monsoon onset. The eastward shift of western Pacific subtropical high and the southward movement of continental cold front preceded the monsoon onset in SCS. The starting dates of SCS summer monsoon indicated that the southwest monsoon starts in the Indochinese Peninsula and forms an eastward zonal belt, and then the belt bifurcates in the SCS, with one part moving northeastward into the tropical western North Pacific, and another southward into western Kalimantan. This largely determined the pattern of the SCS summer monsoon. Wavelet analysis of zonal wind and OLR at Xisha showed that intra-seasonal variability played an important role in the summer. This work improves the accuracy of the amplitude of intra-seasonal and synoptic variation obtained from remote-sensed data.  相似文献   

11.
基于中国热带气旋年鉴资料,从气候学角度出发,对西北太平洋TC(热带气旋)发生温带变性的频数与大尺度环流系统间的关系进行了诊断和分析.研究发现变性TC多发生于夏、秋两季,通过对NCEP月平均再分析资料的500hPa高度场进行EOF分解,发现西北太平洋TC变性的频数与65°N附近强冷高压系统在夏、秋两季都存在着正相关关系,且相关性在秋季高于夏季;与30°N附近强副热带高压系统存在负相关关系,夏季副热带高压系统的作用更大;与30°N以南西北太平洋多台风活动区域的弱低压存在显著的负相关,低压越弱,对流越弱,则TC的生成数越少,其中发生变性的TC数也会减少.500hPa高度场EOF分解的第一特征向量所对应的时间函数分布在20世纪70年代中期前后出现了反号,较好地对应了变性TC年频数的年际变化趋势,70年代中期之前变性TC呈总体偏多,之后变性TC的频数总体偏少,呈明显下降趋势.  相似文献   

12.
利用含地形、摩擦及非绝热加热外源强迫的准地转正压涡度方程模式 ,通过构造理想的坡地地形及椭圆型岛地形 ,首先分析了孤立地形的动力抬升作用及动力抬升、摩擦、非绝热加热 3者共同作用下对热带气旋 (TC)移动的影响。发现 :地形的动力抬升、摩擦作用以及地形附近海域的非绝热加热对TC移动均有影响 ;然后 ,引入了我国东南近海的实际地形 ,通过数值试验分析了TC移经或登陆在近海不同位置时TC移向、移速的可能变化 ,并给出了近海地形对TC移向、移速影响的空间分布。  相似文献   

13.
The response of the East China Sea (ECS) to a tropical cyclone (TC) is studied with a two-layernonlinear primitive equation ocean model. Numerica experiments indicate that there is rightward bias inocean response to a moving TC. The initial middle layer (ML) depth and stratification intensity havesubstantial impact on the Changes of SST and ML depth. The initial ML depth has large effect onthe value of the current, whereas the initial stratification intensity has slight influence on it. Thedistribution of ECS ML depth, especially the special ocean thermal structure on the continental shelf facil-itates the drop of SST. The simulation results of ocean response to Typhoon 7002 are fairly consistentwith the observation data.  相似文献   

14.
An explosive extratropical cyclone(EC)over the Eastern Asian region that caused two shipwrecks is analyzed using ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.Analyses of the evolution of the EC reveal that the positive potential vorticity(PV)at the upper-tropospheric level displays a hook-shaped structure during the mature period of the cyclone.The PV distribution forms a vertically coherent PV structure called a PV tower.The vertical distribution of the PV can induce and strengthen cyclonic circulation from the lower-to upper-levels of troposphere,which is an important deepening mechanism of explosive cyclone.The PV tower occurs approximately ten hours prior to the development of surface occlusion in the cyclone.The evolution of surface fronts closely follows the development of the horizontal upper-tropospheric PV.This tandem development is largely attributed to the ability of the positive upper-tropospheric PV and the PV tower to induce cyclonic circulation simultaneously.The kinematic wrap-up process of cyclonic circulation also accelerates the formation of warm occlusion.A conceptual model of the distributions of positive PV and potential temperature combining the perspectives of dynamic tropopause folding,PV tower,and atmospheric stability,including westward tilting and baroclinicity,is proposed.This model can illustrate the explosive deepening mechanism of ECs.The regions of convective instability and rainfall determined by this model are consistent with those identified from the actual observation.  相似文献   

15.
To investigate the annual and interannual variability of ocean surface wind over the South China Sea (SCS), the vector empirical orthogonal function (VEOF) method and the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) method were employed to analyze a set of combined satellite scatterometer wind data during the period from December 1992 to October 2009. The merged wind data were generated from European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS)-1/2 Scatterometer, NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) and NASA’s Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) wind products. The first VEOF mode corresponds to a winter-summer mode which accounts for 87.3% of the total variance and represents the East Asian monsoon features. The second mode of VEOF corresponds to a spring-autumn oscillation which accounts for 8.3% of the total variance. To analyze the interannual variability, the annual signal was removed from the wind data set and the VEOFs of the residuals were calculated. The temporal mode of the first interannual VEOF is correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) with a four-month lag. The second temporal interannual VEOF mode is correlated with the SOI with no time lag. The time series of the two interannual VEOFs were decomposed using the HHT method and the results also show a correlation between the interannual variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.  相似文献   

16.
本文利用热成风适应原理,采取分解分析法对青藏高原500hpa暖性高压的生成机制作了一些定性和定量的讨论。结果表明:在扰动的水平尺度大于热成风适应的特征尺度的条件下,当源地有明显的负值非热成风涡度出现时,流场将向温度场适应,而温度场由于高原的加热作用存在暖中心或暖脊,则适应的结果在高原大气500hpa形成暖性高压,并伴随高层辐合,低层辐散及下沉运动。  相似文献   

17.
It is well known that Tropical cyclone(TC) activities over the Pacific are affected by El Nino events. In most studies El Nino phenomena have been separated into east Pacific warming(EPW) and central Pacific warming(CPW) based on the location of maximum SST anomaly. Since these two kinds of El Nino have different impacts on Pacific tropical cyclone activities, this study investigates different features of TC activities and the genesis potential index(GPI) during EPW years and CPW years. Four contrib- uting factors, i.e., the low-level absolute vorticity, the relative humidity, the potential intensity and the vertical wind shear, are exam- ined to determine which factors are most important in causing the anomalous TC activities. Our results show that during EPW years in July–August(JA0), TC activities are more frequent with stronger intensity over the Western North Pacific(WNP) and Eastern North Pacific(ENP). The maximum anomaly center of TC activities then drifts eastward significantly in September–October(SO0). However, centers of anomalous TC activity barely change from JA0 to SO0 during CPW years. In January–February–March(JFM1) of the decaying years of warming events, TC frequency and intensity both have positive anomaly over the South Pacific. The anoma- lies in EPW years have larger amplitude and wider spatial distribution than those in CPW years. These anomalous activities of TC are associated with GPI anomaly and the key factors affecting GPI anomaly for each ocean basin are quite different.  相似文献   

18.
The relationship of the interannual variability of the transport and bifurcation latitude of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) to the El Ni o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated. This is done through composite analysis of sea surface height (SSH) observed by satellite altimeter during October 1992-July 2009, and correspondingly derived sea surface geostrophic currents. During El Nio/La Ni a years, the SSH in the tropical North Pacific Ocean falls/rises, with maximum changes in the region 0-15°N, 130°E-160°E. The decrease/increase in SSH induces a cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly in the western tropical gyre. The cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly in the gyre results in an increase/decrease of NEC transport, and a northward/southward shift of the NEC bifurcation latitude near the Philippine coast. The variations are mainly in response to anomalous wind forcing in the west-central tropical North Pacific Ocean, related to ENSO events.  相似文献   

19.
This study investigated the impact of sea surface temperature(SST)in several important areas of the Indian-Pacific basin on tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western North Pacific(WNP)during the developing years of three super El Ni?o events(1982,1997,and 2015)based on observations and numerical simulations.During the super El Ni?o years,TC intensity was enhanced considerably,TC days increased,TC tracks mostly recurved along the coasts,and fewer TCs made landfall in China.These characteristics are similar to the strong ENSO-TC relationship but further above the climatological means than in strong El Ni?o years.It indicates that super El Ni?o events play a dominant role in the intensities and tracks of WNP TCs.However,there were clear differences in both numbers and positions of TC genesis among the different super El Ni?o years.These features could be attributed to the collective impact of SST anomalies(SSTAs)in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and East Indian Ocean(EIO)and the SST gradient(SSTG)between the southwestern Pacific and the western Pacific warm pool.During 2015,the EIO SSTA was extremely warm and the anomalous anticyclone in the western WNP was enhanced,resulting in fewer TCs than normal.In 1982,the EIO SSTA and spring SSTG showed negative anomalies,followed by an increased anomalous cyclone in the western WNP and equatorial vertical wind shear.This intensified the conversion of eddy kinetic energy from large-scale flows,favorable for the westward shift of TC genesis.Consequently,anomalous TC activities during the super El Ni?o years resulted mainly from combined SSTA impacts of different key areas over the Indian-Pacific basin.  相似文献   

20.
To investigate whether the Asian monsoon influences tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the South China Sea (SCS), TCs (including tropical storms and typhoons) over the SCS are analyzed using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center dataset from 1945 to 2009. Results show an increasing trend in the frequencies of TC-all (all TCs over the SCS) and TY-all (all typhoons over the SCS), due mainly to an increase in the number of TCs moving into the SCS after development elsewhere. Little change is seen in the number of TCs that form in the SCS. The results of wavelet analysis indicate that the frequency of typhoons (TY) shows a similar oscillation as that of TCs, i.e., a dominant periodicity of 8-16 years around the 1970s for all TC activity, except for TC-mov (TCs that moved into the SCS from the western North Pacific). To examine the relationship between typhoon activity and the summer monsoon, a correlation analysis was performed that considered typhoons, TCs, and five monsoon indexes. The analysis reveals statistically significant negative correlation between the strength of the Southwest Asian summer monsoon and typhoon activity over the SCS, which likely reflects the effect of the monsoon on TC formation in the western North Pacific (WNP) and subsequent movement into the SCS. There is a statistically significant negative correlation between TY-loc (typhoons that developed from TCs formed over the SCS) and the South China Sea summer monsoon and Southeast Asian summer monsoon.  相似文献   

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