共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 421 毫秒
1.
ＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓｏｆｆｕｔｕｒｅｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｉｔｙｏｆＪｉｎｇ－Ｊｉｎ－Ｔａｎｇｒｅｇｉｏｎａｎｄｓｅｖｅｎｍａｊｏｒｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｚｏｎｅｓ ｗｉｔｈｔｈｅｅｘｔｒｅｍｅ－ｖａｌｕｅｔｈｅｏｒｙＲａｎＺＨＯＵ（周冉）ａｎｄＢａｎｇ－ＨｕｔＬＩＮ（... 相似文献
2.
Ｌｏｎｇ┐ａｎｄｉｎｔｅｒｍｅｄｉａｔｅ┐ｔｅｒｍｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｐｏｔｅｎ┐ｔｉａｌｏｆＦｅｎ┐Ｗｅｉｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｂｅｌｔ：ａｃｔｉｖｅｆａｕｌｔｄａｔａａｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎＪＩＮＧＬＩＵ（刘静）ａｎｄＬＩＡＮＧ－ＭＯＵＷＡＮＧ（汪良谋）Ｉｎｓ... 相似文献
3.
ＥｐｉｓｏｄｅｓａｎｄａｇｅｓｏｆｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｌａｎｄｓｌｉｄｅｓａｌｏｎｇｔｈｅＣｈａｎｇｍａｆａｕｌｔｚｏｎｅＬａｉ－ＸｕｎＫＡＮＧ；（康来迅）ａｎｄＪｉａｎ－ＲｏｎｇＷＡＮＧ（王建荣）（ＥａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏ... 相似文献
4.
ＴｈｅｌｉｍｉｔｐｒｏｐｅｒｔｉｅｓｏｆｓｐａｔｉａｌｃｏｈｅｒｅｎｃｅｏｆｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｇｒｏｕｎｄｍｏｔｉｏｎＪＵＮ－ＪＩＥＷＡＮＧ（王君杰）ＷＥＩＣＨＥＮ（陈玮）ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＢｒｉｄｇｅＥｎｇｉｎｅｅｒｉｎｇ，ＴｏｎｇｊｉＵｎｉｖ... 相似文献
5.
ＲｅｄｉｓｃｕｓｓｉｏｎｏｎｔｈｅｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｒｅｇｉｍｅｎｅｔｗｏｒｋＺｅ－ＧａｏＷＡＮＧ（王泽皋）；Ｐｅｉ－ＱｉｎｇＳＵＮ（孙佩卿）；Ｊｉｎｇ－ＣｈｕｎＧＡＯ（高景春）；Ｓｈｕ－ＬｉａｎＬＩ（李淑莲）；ＸｕｅＺＨＡＮＧ（张雪）ａｎｄＹａｎＧＵＯ... 相似文献
6.
ＡｍｏｄｅｌｏｆｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｉｔｙｗｉｔｈｆｒａｃｔａｌｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅｓａｎｄａｐｒｅｌｉｍｉｎａｒｙｄｉｓｃｕｓｓｉｏｎｏｎｔｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｏｂｅｔｗｅｅｎＤａｎｄｂｖａｌｕｅＨａｔ－ＫｕｎＪＩＡＮＧ（蒋海昆）ａｎｄＳｈｏｕ－ＺｈｏｎｇＤＩ... 相似文献
7.
刘晶波 《地震学报(英文版)》1996,9(2):309-315
Ｔｈｅｅｆｆｅｃｔｏｆｌｏｃａｌｉｒｒｅｇｕｌａｒｔｏｐｏｇｒａｐｈｙｏｎｓｅｉｓｍｉｃ ｇｒｏｕｎｄ ｍｏｔｉｏｎＪＩＧ－ｈｏＬＩＵ（刘晶波）（ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＣｉｖｉｌＥｎｇｉｎｅｅｒｉｎｇ，ＴｓｉｎｇｈｕａＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙＢｅｉｊｉ... 相似文献
8.
ＴｈｅｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌｌａｗｓｏｆｓｔｒｏｎｇｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｍｏｔｉｏｎｐｈａｓｅｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓＸｉｎｇＪＩＮ（金星）ａｎｄＺｈｅｎ－ＰｅｎｇＬＩＡＯ（廖振鹏）（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＥｎｇｉｎｅｅｒｉｎｇＭｅｃｈａｎｉｃｓ，Ｓ... 相似文献
9.
ＬｉｎｅａｒｉｎｖｅｒｓｉｏｎｏｆｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｍｏｍｅｎｔｔｅｎｓｏｒｓｏｆｇｅｎｅｒａｌｐｏｉｎｔｓｏｕｒｃｅｂｙｕｓｉｎｇｇｅｎｅｒａｌｉｚｅｄｒａｙｔｈｅｏｒｙＲＵＩ－ＦＥＮＧＬＩＵ（刘瑞丰）ＪＩＮＧ－ＰＩＮＧＤＡＮＧ（党京平）ＳＨＡＯ－Ｄ... 相似文献
10.
ＴｈｅｎｕｍｅｒｉｃａｌｍｅｔｈｏｄｏｆＦｏｕｒｉｅｒｅｉｇｅｎｔｒａｎｓｆｏｒｍａｎｄｉｔｓａｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｉｎｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｉｔｙａｎａｌｙｓｉｓＢＩＮＧＣＨＥＮ１）（陈兵）ＺＨＩ－ＺＨＥＮＺＨＥＮＧ２）（郑治真）ＺＡＩ－ＳＥＮＪＩＡＮＧ... 相似文献
11.
基于广义帕累托分布构建地震活动性模型,因其输入参数取值难以避免不确定性,导致依据该模型所得的地震危险性估计结果具有不确定性。鉴于此,本文选取青藏高原东北缘为研究区,提出了基于全域敏感性分析的地震危险性估计的不确定性分析流程和方法。首先,利用地震活动性广义帕累托模型,进行研究区地震危险性估计;然后,选取地震记录的起始时间和震级阈值作为地震活动性模型的输入参数,采用具有全域敏感性分析功能的E-FAST方法,对上述两个参数的不确定性以及两参数之间的相互作用对地震危险性估计不确定性的影响进行定量分析。结果表明：地震危险性估计结果（不同重现期的震级重现水平、震级上限及相应的置信区间）对两个输入参数中的震级阈值更为敏感;不同重现期的地震危险性估计结果对震级阈值的敏感程度不同;对不同的重现期而言,在影响地震危险性估计结果的不确定性上,两个输入参数之间存在非线性效应,且非线性效应程度不同。本文提出的不确定性分析流程和方法,可以推广应用于基于其它类型地震活动性模型的地震危险性估计不确定性分析。 相似文献
12.
在地震危险性分析中，历史地震资料是确定地震活动性参数的关键。鉴于我国西部地震资料记载年限短，地震活动水平高的情况，本文提出一种对中国西部地区如何使用有限资料，确定未来地震活动水平和合理估计地震活动性参数的方法。该方法是引入相对应变这一物理量，通过分析各地震带中强以上地震在时间上的相对应变释放速率，达到尽可能合理估计地震活动性参数的目的。 相似文献
13.
现行的地震危险性分析方法是经过潜在震源区划分、地震活动性参数和衰减关系的确定,以及基岩地震动参数的计算而作为基础资料的历史强震目录,同时也是通过历史地震记载的分析得到的。然而,在其每一个环节都存在不确定性,而现有的不确定校正很难达到满意的程度。本文设想仅仅利用历史地震的史料记载,依据最大似然法,计算场地的各不同年份不同超越概率的地震危险性。以怀来、河间、唐山、承德、宁晋、石家庄为例,并仅仅以这些场地的历史记载为依据,不考虑推测的影响烈度,计算这些场地的危险性分析结果,并与中国地震烈度区划图（1990）的结果进行比较,由此来说明本方法具有一定的可利用性。 相似文献
14.
Vladimir Yu Sokolov Friedemann Wenzel Rakesh Mohindra 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2009
The earthquake risk on Romania is one of the highest in Europe, and seismic hazard for almost half of the territory of Romania is determined by the Vrancea seismic region, which is situated beneath the southern Carpathian Arc. The region is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depth from 70 to 160 km. Besides the Vrancea area, several zones of shallow seismicity located within and outside the Romanian territory are considered as seismically dangerous. We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, which implemented the “logic tree” approach, and which considered both the intermediate-depth and the shallow seismicity. Various available models of seismicity and ground-motion attenuation were used as the alternative variants. Seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensities, peak ground acceleration, and response spectra was evaluated for various return periods. Sensitivity study was performed to analyze the impact of variation of input parameters on the hazard results. The uncertainty on hazard estimates may be reduced by better understanding of parameters of the Vrancea source zone and the zones of crustal seismicity. Reduction of uncertainty associated with the ground-motion models is also very important issue for Romania. 相似文献
15.
Modern earthquake loss models make use of earthquake catalogs relevant to the seismic hazard assessment upon seismicity and seismotectonic analysis. The main objective of this paper is to investigate a recently compiled catalog (National Institute of Meteorology or INM catalog: 412-2011) and to generate seismic hazard maps through classical probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and smoothed-gridded seismicity models for Tunisia. It is now established with the local earthquake bulletin that the recent seismicity of Tunisia is sparse and moderate. Therefore, efforts must be undertaken to elaborate a robust hazard analysis for risk assessment and seismic design purposes. These recommendations follow the recently published reports by the World Bank that describe the seismic risk in Tunis City as being beyond a tolerable level with an MSK intensity level of VII. Some attempts were made during the past two decades to assess the seismic hazard for Tunisia and they have mostly failed to properly investigate the historical and instrumental seismicity catalog. This limitation also exists for the key aspect of epistemic and random uncertainties impact on the final seismic hazard assessment. This study also investigates new ground motion prediction equations suitable for use in Tunisia. The methodology applied herein uses, for the first time in PSHA of Tunisia, seismicity parameters integrated in logic tree framework to capture epistemic uncertainties through three different seismic source models. It also makes use of the recently released version of OpenQuake engine; an open-source tool for seismic hazard and risk assessment developed in the framework of the Global Earthquake Model. 相似文献
16.
T. M. Tsapanos 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2001,158(9-10):1691-1718
—?Earthquake hazard parameters are estimated by the application of the maximum likelihood method. The technique is based on a procedure which utilizes data of different quality, e.g., those in which the uncertainty in the assessment of the magnitudes is great and those in which the magnitudes are computed with great precision. In other words the data were extracted from both historical (incomplete) and recorded (complete) files. The historical part of the catalogue contains only the strongest events, whereas the complete part can be divided into several sub-catalogues; each one assumed to be complete above a specified magnitude threshold. Uncertainty in the determination of magnitudes has also been taken into account. The method allows us to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters which are the maximum regional magnitude, M max, the activity rate, λ, of the seismic events and the well known value β (b=β?log?e), which is the slope of the magnitude-frequency relationship. All these parameters are of physical significance. The mean return periods, RP, of earthquakes with a certain lower magnitude M?≥?m are also determined. The method is applied in the Island of Crete and the adjacent area, where catastrophic earthquakes are known from the historical era. The earthquake hazard of the whole area is divided in a cellular manner which allow the analysis of the localized hazard parameters and the representation of their regional variation. The seismic hazard analysis, which is expressed by: (a) The annual probability of exceedance of a specified value of magnitude and (b) the return periods (in years) that are expected for given magnitudes, for shallow events is finally performed for shallow events. This hazard analysis is useful for both theoretical and practical reasons and provides a tool for earthquake resistant design in both areas of low and high seismicity. 相似文献
17.
As large destructive seismic events are not frequent in Algeria, anexhaustive knowledge of the historical seismicity is required to have arealistic view of seismic hazard in this part of the world. This research workpresents a critical reappraisal of seismicity in the north-eastern Algeria forseismotectonic and seismic hazard purposes. This part of work focuses onthe seismicity of pre-1900 period for the area under consideration[33°N-38°N, 4°E-9.5°E]. By going back tothe available documentary sources and evaluating and analysing the eventsin geographical, cultural and historical context, it has been possible toidentify 111 events, from 1850–1899, which are not reported in therecent Algerian catalogue. Several spurious events, reported in standardlistings, have been deleted and nine unknown events have been discovered.It is quite clear that macroseismic information derived from press reportsand published documents in Algeria, under certain conditions, is veryincomplete, even for destructive earthquakes, located in the countrysideaway from communication centres. One of the reasons for this iscensorship, noticeable during the colonisation period. Critical analysis ofnewly collected information has allowed the determination and/or theimprovement of the macroseismic parameters of each event, such aslocation, maximum epicentral intensity and magnitude to produce anearthquake catalogue as homogeneous and complete as the available data,for the zone under study. The criteria used in this research are explainedand eight historical earthquakes have been the subject of retrospectivemacroseismic field construction.The investigation of historical earthquakes is one of the most important taskin studying seismotectonic for seismic hazard evaluation purposes. 相似文献
18.
R. B. S. Yadav Yusuf Bayrak J. N. Tripathi S. Chopra A. P. Singh Erdem Bayrak 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2012,169(9):1619-1639
The maximum likelihood estimation method is applied to study the geographical distribution of earthquake hazard parameters and seismicity in 28 seismogenic source zones of NW Himalaya and the adjoining regions. For this purpose, we have prepared a reliable, homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1500–2010. The technique used here allows the data to contain either historical or instrumental era or even a combination of the both. In this study, the earthquake hazard parameters, which include maximum regional magnitude (M max), mean seismic activity rate (λ), the parameter b (or β?=?b/log e) of Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) frequency-magnitude relationship, the return periods of earthquakes with a certain threshold magnitude along with their probabilities of occurrences have been calculated using only instrumental earthquake data during the period 1900–2010. The uncertainties in magnitude have been also taken into consideration during the calculation of hazard parameters. The earthquake hazard in the whole NW Himalaya region has been calculated in 28 seismogenic source zones delineated on the basis of seismicity level, tectonics and focal mechanism. The annual probability of exceedance of earthquake (activity rate) of certain magnitude is also calculated for all seismogenic source zones. The obtained earthquake hazard parameters were geographically distributed in all 28 seismogenic source zones to analyze the spatial variation of localized seismicity parameters. It is observed that seismic hazard level is high in Quetta-Kirthar-Sulaiman region in Pakistan, Hindukush-Pamir Himalaya region and Uttarkashi-Chamoli region in Himalayan Frontal Thrust belt. The source zones that are expected to have maximum regional magnitude (M max) of more than 8.0 are Quetta, southern Pamir, Caucasus and Kashmir-Himanchal Pradesh which have experienced such magnitude of earthquakes in the past. It is observed that seismic hazard level varies spatially from one zone to another which suggests that the examined regions have high crustal heterogeneity and seismotectonic complexity. 相似文献
19.
川滇地区是我国地震危险性较高的地区之一.本文基于对特大强震的风险性考虑,使用全球地震模型OpenQuake软件,建立了川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型.首先根据构造特征划分多个震源分区,并整理出这些震源分区内断层活动特征与滑动速率;基于震源分区和断层模型,使用GPS应变率转换成的锥形古登堡-里克特关系作为整个区域的地震积累率,并允许超过历史最大震级的特大地震的出现,结合活动断层滑动速率所积累的地震发生率,给出震源分区内断层地震源和背景地震源的地震发生率的比率分配关系;在活动断层分段上,保留了大型断裂或其主要部分,没有根据小的阶区来对断层进行详细分段,以便分配特大地震发生率;并使用地震率平滑方法分配背景地震发生率.最后在OpenQuake中加入地震动预测方程,计算出了川滇地区的PGA分布图,为区域地震危险性提供科学依据. 相似文献
20.
"Parametric-historic" Procedure for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Part II: Assessment of Seismic Hazard at Specified Site 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3