基于Copula函数的鄱阳湖水系径流丰枯遭遇多维分析     

吴海鸥  涂新军  杜奕良  张强  陈晓宏  谢育廷 《湖泊科学》2019,31(3):801-813

鄱阳湖流域5大水系来水变化与湖区水文极值事件有密切关系,研究径流变化特征与丰枯遭遇规律对区域防洪抗旱有重要意义.本文运用Copula函数构建了鄱阳湖水系多维径流联合分布模型,采用特枯、偏枯、平水、偏丰和特丰的径流丰枯分类,定量研究了鄱阳湖5大水系丰枯遭遇的问题,探讨了多维丰枯遭遇同步联合概率的变化特征.结果表明：鄱阳湖水系河流之间的径流具有较高的相关性,Gaussian Copula函数能较好地模拟二维至五维的径流联合分布.多条河流的丰枯遭遇随着维数的增加,丰枯组合增加,丰枯同步的联合概率明显下降,且丰枯同步的最大联合概率趋向于丰枯两端.对于相同的概率区间,非汛期径流的丰枯同步联合概率明显大于年径流和汛期径流,而年径流和汛期径流之间的丰枯同步联合概率差别较小.同处于流域北部或南部或相邻的河流之间的组合,其同步联合概率相较其他组合大,而南、北河流组合的同步联合概率相对较小.该研究可为流域水资源管理及水旱灾害预防提供科学依据.  相似文献   

对白盆珠水库诱震危险性的初步预测     

常宝琦  肖安予 《华南地震》1986,(1)

白盆珠水库位于广东省惠东县境内(图1),主坝座落在东江第二大支流西枝江中游之白盆珠峡谷区,高66.2米;付坝位于万福庵,横跨莲花山大断裂,高40米。总库容约12亿立方米。它是以防洪为主,兼有灌溉、发电和改善航运等综合效益的大型水电工程。 鉴于国内外大型水库诱发地震概率较高,且广东省已建成蓄水的库容大于10亿  相似文献   

南北同枯场景下南水北调中线丹江口水库供水调度方式     

张睿  孟明星  蔡淑兵  饶光辉 《湖泊科学》2017,29(6):1502-1509

南北同枯场景下南水北调中线丹江口水库供水调度是保障水源工程有效供给、优化配置供水水源的重要课题,如何科学制定不同供水对象的供水水量、兼顾水源区及受水区用水需求、充分发挥丹江口水利枢纽的调蓄作用,是南水北调中线工程功能效益发挥的关键.以南水北调中线水源工程丹江口水库为研究对象,深入分析了中线工程通水后丹江口水库供水现状及面临的技术难题,从而提出南北同枯场景的判别标准及相应水库供水调度的方法,揭示了汉江中下游、清泉沟和南水北调中线供水对水库起始供水水位的响应机理,提出"蓄丰补枯、均衡减少"的方法是南北同枯场景下丹江口水库的供水调度方式,不同供水起始水位及供水方式情况下供水调度仿真结果表明,本文所得结论可为丹江口水库在实际运行中制定调度方案提供参考.  相似文献   

基于浮游植物功能类群的广东省大型水库生态分区初探   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王雅文  杨扬  潘鸿  何文祥  乔永民  陶然 《湖泊科学》2014,26(1):147-153

2012年1月和7月通过对广东省境内10座供水水库进行水生态调查,采集48个站点的浮游植物样品,对其进行浮游植物功能类群的划分及聚类分析.调查区共鉴定出8门104属207种浮游植物,主要分属于30个功能类群.聚类分析将这10座水库聚合为4个类型区,第一生态类型区包括南水和新丰江水库,以适应低营养环境的功能类群为主;第二生态类型区包括飞来峡、白盆珠和新丰江水库,主要以中营养型和广谱型为优势功能类群;第三生态类型区和第四生态类型区包括高州、公平、大水桥、鹤地和汤溪水库,其中高州和公平水库主要以富营养型和广谱型为优势功能类群,其它水库则以适应富营养环境的功能类群为绝对优势类群.上述4个类型区浮游植物优势功能类群差异较大,且与水质营养状态有良好的响应关系.  相似文献   

金沙江下游梯级水库运行后三峡水库高洪水期入库水沙特性     

高宇  任实  王海  吕超楠  赵汗青 《湖泊科学》2023,35(2):662-672

泥沙淤积问题直接影响着三峡水库的使用寿命及综合效益的发挥,研究其入库水沙特性对于解决水库泥沙淤积问题具有重要意义。根据水文站实测数据,分析了三峡水库入库水沙输移特性及来源组成变化,重点研究了金沙江下游梯级水库运行后的三峡水库高洪水期入库水沙特性。结果表明:2003—2021年,三峡水库入库泥沙集中于汛期的高洪水期,2013年以后该现象更为显著,泥沙来源也由金沙江为主转变为嘉陵江为主。寸滩站洪峰流量高于50000 m³/s的高洪水期三峡入库沙量显著大于30000～50000 m³/s区间的高洪水期,三峡水库泥沙调度关键在于上游发生编号洪水期间。三峡水库上游沱江或嘉陵江等支流发生流域性大洪水时,易引起高洪水期入库水沙出现“小水大沙”的特点。金沙江下游梯级水库运行后,三峡水库高洪水期入库泥沙大幅减少,中小洪水调度期间泥沙淤积量也大幅减小。研究结果可为三峡水库的泥沙精细化调度和长期高效使用提供基础数据支撑。  相似文献   

汛期洪水资源化利用对三峡水库淤积影响研究     

赵汗青  任实  闫静  张成潇  刘志武  高宇 《湖泊科学》2024,36(2):634-644

作为三峡水库诸多优化调度方式中的一种,洪水资源化利用对水库淤积的影响受到持续关注,开展针对场次洪水的相关研究有助于进一步深化对水库淤积科学问题的认识,有望为调度工作提供一定的技术支撑。通过2013年以来的历史水文资料分析与水沙运动数值模拟,探究了入库洪水的输沙过程以及洪水资源化利用对库区淤积与水库排沙的影响。结果表明:洪峰流量介于30000～55000 m3/s的中小洪水是近年三峡入库洪水的主要形式,随着入库洪峰流量的增加,洪水的地区组成逐渐趋向于金沙江下游、嘉陵江共同主导;常年回水区淤积、水库排沙是“消化”入库泥沙的两种主要途径,且以前者的作用为主;针对Ⅰ-3类入库洪水,坝前起调水位Z₀的抬升或洪水资源化利用对水库淤积的影响主要在于造成了库区淤积的重分布,次要在于改变了水库的排沙作用,在Z₀≤150 m条件下,洪水资源化利用对水库淤积的影响相对较小;针对典型洪水,当武隆洪峰流量Q’_WL与入库洪峰流量Q’_RK的比值小于1/5(即Q’_WL/Q’_RK<1...  相似文献   

基于误差分布估计的三峡水库入库洪水概率预报方法     

张俊  冯宝飞  牛文静  王乐  徐雨妮  田逸飞  严方家 《湖泊科学》2023,35(2):722-729

准确、及时的入库洪水预报,对三峡水库综合效益的发挥和长江流域水旱灾害防御、水资源利用、流域综合管理等具有重要作用。基于预报误差的最优分布估计和分布函数动态参数假定,提出了一种三峡水库入库洪水概率预报方法,并进行了洪水概率预报业务试验。结果表明:本文所提方法科学可行,计算快捷,使用方便,便于在实时作业预报中应用推广;概率预报结果较确定性预报结果,在水量预报、预警效果等方面均有所改善,1～5 d预见期预报的确定性系数提高0.1%～3.4%,水量误差减少0.1%～4.8%,可为三峡水库实时调度提供更可靠的预报信息;所提出的三峡水库入库洪水概率预报业务化产品,可提供更多风险信息,为三峡水库的科学调度,尤其是洪水资源化利用提供更好的优化决策支撑。  相似文献   

1999-2015年汛后小浪底水库典型支流口门淤积发展影响分析     

李涛  夏润亮  夏军强  张俊华  俞彦  吴丹 《湖泊科学》2021,33(5):1532-1540

支流作为水库综合效益发挥的重要组成部分,其河口泥沙大幅淤积会影响水库综合效益的发挥.选取多沙河流水库黄河小浪底库区畛水、石井两支流作为典型实例,在对1999-2015年汛后水库的来水来沙、水库调度、库区干支流淤积量与形态分析基础上,研究干支流淤积形态的变化,重点研究支流口门拦门沙坎抬升变化特征,结果表明：支流的分流及淤积与入库流量、含沙量及库区的淤积形态有关.入库流量越大,支流分流比小,支流淤积规模小;入库含沙量越大,支流分沙比越大,支流淤积规模越大.  相似文献   

三峡水库区间来沙量估算及水库排沙效果分析     

刘尚武  张小峰  许全喜  张欧阳  黄俊健 《湖泊科学》2019,31(1):28-38

三峡水库是控制和开发长江的重要工程,具有巨大的防洪、发电、航运等综合效益.水库排沙比是反映水库拦截泥沙程度的重要指标.针对目前三峡水库排沙比计算没有考虑三峡水库区间来沙,结果偏大的问题,依据三峡水库区间水文站2003-2016年实测水文资料,采用水文学法估算了三峡水库区间月、年入库输沙量,分析了三峡水库排沙效果及主要影响因素.结果表明：1）三峡水库区间年均来沙量约1775×10⁴ t,占总入库沙量的10.3%,近年来沙占比有所增大,其中2013-2016年来沙量占总入库沙量的26.9%;2）三峡水库年均排沙比为21.6%,其中围堰蓄水期为34.1%,初期蓄水期为17.0%,试验性蓄水期为15.4%;3）三峡水库采用"蓄清排浑"方式运行,主汛期7-9月的排沙比一般大于枯季,但2013年以后,出现了主汛期排沙比小于枯季的现象;4）入库细颗粒泥沙的排沙比大于粗颗粒泥沙,其中粒径d ≤ 0.062 mm的细颗粒泥沙排沙比为23.4%,0.062 mm0.125 mm的中粗沙排沙比分别为5.5%和11.1%;5）三峡水库排沙比汛期主要受V/Q影响,枯季主要受入库含沙量的影响;当V/Q约为170×10⁴ s时,水库排沙效果最差;分别建立了汛期和枯季排沙比经验计算式.本文的研究成果可为三峡水库水沙优化调度等提供参考.  相似文献   

基于EFDC模型的深圳水库富营养化模拟   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

唐天均  杨晟  尹魁浩  邹锐 《湖泊科学》2014,26(3):393-400

基于EFDC模型构建了深圳水库三维水动力和富营养化定量模拟模型.分别用2009年和2010 2011年流量、水位和水质等观测数据对模型进行了校正和验证,准确地反映了深圳水库的水动力和水质变化过程.在此基础上,假定支流污染截排、水库调度和降低东江引水污染负荷3种情景进行深圳水库富营养化数值模拟,3种情景下库中Chl.a峰值浓度分别降低1.0%、16.4%和46.3%,平均浓度分别降低1.3%、29.8%和29.9%.深圳水库具有良好的交换能力,尚未出现水华暴发,但入库营养盐负荷高,存在较大的富营养化风险;在目前沙湾河污水已经截排的基础上再实施支流污染控制,对水质改善和藻类控制作用已不明显;水库调度和削减东江引水污染负荷对深圳水库水质和富营养化改善明显,能够有效降低水华发生的风险.  相似文献   

Improvement of mid- to long-term runoff forecasting based on physical causes: application in Nenjiang basin,China     

Hong-Yan Li  Lin Tian  Ya-nan Wu  Miao Xie 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1414-1422

Abstract

An artificial neural network, mid- to long-term runoff forecasting model of the Nenjiang basin was established by deciding predictors using the physical analysis method, combined with long-term hydrological and meteorological information. The forecasting model was gradually improved while considering physical factors, such as the main flood season and non-flood season by stage, runoff sources and hydrological processes. The average relative errors in the simulation tests of the prediction model were 0.33 in the main flood season and 0.26 in the non-flood season, indicating that the prediction accuracy during the non-flood season was greater than that in the main flood season. Based on these standards, forecasting accuracy evaluation was conducted by comparing forecasting results with actual conditions: for 2001 to 2003 data, the pass rate of forecasting in the main flood season was 50%, while it was 93% in the non-flood season; for 2001–2010, the respective values were 45% and 72%. The accuracy of prediction was found to decrease as the length of record increases.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis, Associate editor A. Viglione

Citation Li, H.-Y. Tian, L., Wu, Y., and Xie, M., 2013. Improvement of mid- to long-term runoff forecasting based on physical causes: application in Nenjiang basin, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1414–1422.  相似文献   

Flood coincidence analysis of Poyang Lake and Yangtze River: risk and influencing factors     

Bing?Jianping  Deng?Pengxin  Zhang?XiangEmail author  Lv?Sunyun  Marco?Marani  Xiao?Yi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(4):879-891

We build copula function-based joint distribution models for the annual maximum flood peaks of the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake, to analyze the coincidence probabilities, using scenarios that combine with the impoundment of three Gorges, define influencing indexes and relative contribution rates on flood coincidence at varying frequencies. The study shows the probabilities for coincidence of floods with 1000, 100, and 10-year return periods in both Yangtze main stem and Poyang Lake are respectively 0.02, 0.19 and 2.87%, with higher coincidence probabilities for shorter return periods; when 1000-year flood occurs in the Yangtze, the probabilities for Poyang Lake to encounter flood of the 1000, 100, or 10-year magnitude are higher than 16.08, 42.48 or 74.77% respectively; Poyang–Yangtze flood coincidence is affected by operation of the hydraulic engineering. The lowering of flood peaks caused by the Three Gorges impoundment and regulation of the lake have respectively reduced the probabilities of Poyang–Yangtze flood coincidence by about 7.0 and 1.97%, with average relative contribution rates ? 33.82 and ? 17.1%; influenced by hydrological projects in Poyang basin, variations in Poyang’s inflow flood have displayed an average contribution rate of 20.4% for the negative effect on extreme (P < 5% or P > 90%) flood coincidence, while having a positive contribution rate of 38.2% on floods of other return periods. The results can help increase our understanding of flood coincidence, and support flood control efforts in Poyang Lake; its analytical approach may also be useful to other applications of copula functions.  相似文献   

太湖流域平原水网区浅层地下水动态特征及影响因素   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

徐羽  许有鹏  吴雷  王强  高斌  周毅 《湖泊科学》2018,30(2):464-471

鉴于浅层地下水在维持区域生态功能方面的重要作用,基于2005-2015年太湖平原水网地区苏州市的14个浅层地下水监测井水位及2005-2014年降水、河道水位和蒸发等日尺度数据,开展浅层地下水埋深动态特征及影响因素研究.结果显示:苏州市浅层地下水总体呈由北往南、自西向东的流场方向,主要受地形因素的影响;年际及丰水期埋深有所减小,枯水期反之,各区域变化过程不一致;枯水期浅层地下水动态特征受不同量级降水总量和次数的显著影响,且与地表水过程关系密切,汛期反之.此外均受到引排水和下垫面变化等因素的影响;浅层地下水埋深对降水具有滞后性,多滞后1~2 d;通过对地形地貌条件、土地利用类型、河湖密度以及浅层地下水埋深状况等因素的综合分析,浅层地下水动态特征可表达为耕地区、水网密布区、高度城镇化区及低山林区4种特征类型.  相似文献   

THE OPERATION MODE OF "STORING THE CLEAR WATER AND DISCHARGING THE MUDDY FLOW" FOR RESERVOIRS BUILT ON HEAVILY SILT-LADEN RIVERS--A CASE STUDY OF THE SANMENXIA RESERVOIR     

Wenxue LI  Yuanfeng ZHANG  Cuiping ZHANG 《国际泥沙研究》2005,20(2)

Observation of the operation of the Sanmenxia Reservoir on the Yellow River has led to the conclusion that to preserve a certain effective storage volume for reservoirs built on heavily silt-laden rivers is feasible if the reservoir is operated according to the principle known as "storing the clear water and discharging the muddy flow". The relative stability of the bed elevation at the end of the backwater and the reservoir's erosion and deposition equilibrium depend on the compatibility of the pool level maintained in non-flood seasons with the conditions of flow and sediment load during flood seasons. Operating the reservoir to regulate the flood and sediment load during flood seasons can reduce the rate of aggradation in the Lower Yellow River. The basic condition for applying the operation mode of "storing the clear water and discharging the muddy flow" is that a sufficient amount of water should be used for discharging sediment during flood seasons. Under the condition of extremely low flow years, reservoir sedimentation cannot be avoided even if this operation mode is adopted.  相似文献   

1990年以来北京密云水库主要水环境因子时空分布特征   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

曾庆慧  秦丽欢  程鹏  李叙勇  贾东民  潘轲旻 《湖泊科学》2016,28(6):1204-1216

根据19902011年密云水库共12个监测点的月监测资料,采用聚类分析研究各监测点水环境相似性及空间分布特征,采用因子分析识别影响水质的主要因子并评价各采样点的综合水质.通过绝对主成分多元回归分析,获得汛期和非汛期各因子对各水质指标的贡献率.利用季节性Kendall检验及流量调节检验对密云水库库区水化学特征和水质状况时空分布特征进行了研究.结果表明：汛期水质主要受到农业营养物质的影响,其次为生物化学因素和有机物的影响.非汛期水质主要受到农牧业排放因素的影响,其次为人类活动和生物化学因素的影响.因子得分综合评价显示,汛期辛庄桥、内湖和大关桥综合水质较差,潮河、库西和白河综合水质较好.非汛期辛庄桥、石佛桥和大关桥综合水质较差,库东、套里和恒河综合水质较好.主要水质指标的年际变化规律不同,但最终都趋于平稳.与潮河、白河入库水质变化相比,库区水质变化趋势较小,上游入库水质和库区水质都整体趋好.除白河入库的总氮和总磷外,其他监测指标的变化趋势经流量调节前后基本一致,表明流量并不是引起水质趋势变化的主要因素,水质的变化主要是由于污染源变化而引起.  相似文献   

Analysis of river runoff in the Poyang Lake Basin of China: long-term changes and influencing factors     

Weiwei Shao  Xiangdong Chen  Zuhao Zhou  Ziqi Yan  Silan Chen 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(4):575-587

An analysis of the variation characteristics and evolutionary trends in the runoff of five rivers in the Poyang Lake Basin was conducted using the MK trend test, Morlet wavelet transforms, correlation analyses, and other methods. For 1956–2011, the inflow runoff displays small, statistically insignificant trends. However, for 2000–2011, significant downward trends are present. River runoff in the basin is significantly correlated with precipitation, while water intake and use is less influential; the most significant impact on river runoff is climate variability. To analyse the effects of water conservancy project scheduling and operation, we also compare the inflow and outflow runoff processes of typical large reservoirs before and after peak reservoir construction. The scheduling and operation of large reservoirs in the five rivers is known to play a supplementary role in dry season inflow runoff. The recent reduction in inflow runoff was mainly caused by basin precipitation; reasonable scheduling of water conservancy projects in the five rivers plays a positive role in safeguarding the water required by the dry season ecosystem in Poyang Lake.  相似文献   

Derivation of water and power operating rules for multi-reservoirs     

Yanlai Zhou  Shenglian Guo  Pan Liu  Chong-yu Xu  Xiaofeng Zhao 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):359-370

ABSTRACT

Water operating rules have been universally used to operate single reservoirs because of their practicability, but the efficiency of operating rules for multi-reservoir systems is unsatisfactory in practice. For better performance, the combination of water and power operating rules is proposed and developed in this paper. The framework of deriving operating rules for multi-reservoirs consists of three modules. First, a deterministic optimal operation module is used to determine the optimal reservoir storage strategies. Second, a fitting module is used to identify and estimate the operating rules using a multiple linear regression analysis (MLR) and artificial neural networks (ANN) approach. Last, a testing module is used to test the fitting operating rules with observed inflows. The Three Gorges and Qing River cascade reservoirs in the Changjiang River basin, China, are selected for a case study. It is shown that the combination of water and power operating rules can improve not only the assurance probability of output power, but also annual average hydropower generation when compared with designed operating rules. It is indicated that the characteristics of flood and non-flood seasons, as well as sample input (water or power), should be considered if the operating rules are developed for multi-reservoirs.