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1.
东南沿海水库下游地区基于动态模拟的洪涝风险评估   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
我国东南沿海地区大多为一些中小流域,这些流域上游多建有水库工程,下游则为人口稠密的平原区,流域调蓄能力小,汇流时间短.同时,随着近年来城镇化快速发展,洪涝风险不断加大.因此,迫切需要开展水库下游不同暴雨重现期下的洪涝风险评估研究,以便为防洪决策提供技术支撑.为此,本文利用遥感、GIS、水文水动力学模型等相关技术方法,建立洪涝动态模拟模型来评估洪涝危险性;采用层次分析法和因子叠加法,从洪涝危险性和洪涝易损性两方面开展洪涝风险综合评估分析.研究表明,通过多学科与多技术手段相结合方法,来模拟预测不同暴雨重现期洪水动态淹没过程,再结合相关社会经济属性,可以有效地评估研究区洪涝灾害的风险,从而为水库调度及流域防洪减灾提供有力支撑.  相似文献   

2.
常露  刘开磊  姚成  李致家 《湖泊科学》2013,25(3):422-427
随着社会经济的快速发展,洪水灾害造成的损失日益严重.洪水预报作为一项重要的防洪非工程措施,对防洪、抗洪工作起着至关重要的作用.淮河洪水危害的严重性和洪水演进过程的复杂性使得淮河洪水预报系统的研究长期以来受到高度重视.本文以王家坝至小柳巷区间流域为例,以河道洪水演算为主线,采用新安江三水源模型进行子流域降雨径流预报,概化具有行蓄洪区的干流河道,进行支流与干流、行蓄洪区与干流的洪水汇流耦合计算,采用实时更新的基于多元回归的方法确定水位流量关系,并以上游站点降雨径流预报模型提供的流量作为上边界条件、以下游站点的水位流量关系作为下边界条件,结合行蓄洪调度模型,建立具有行蓄洪区的河道洪水预报系统,再与基于K-最近邻(KNN)的非参数实时校正模型耦合,建立淮河中游河道洪水预报系统.采用多年资料模拟取得了较好的预报效果,并以2003和2007年大洪水为例进行检验,模拟结果精度较高,也证明了所建预报系统的合理性和适用性.  相似文献   

3.
云南洱海桃溪河口净化工程的设计思路及初步净化效果   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
以太湖上游西苕溪流域为研究对象,通过分布式水文模型HEC-HMS模拟次降雨洪水过程:采用可视化数据存储系统HEC-DSS建立水文气象数据库,利用Geodatabase地理数据库技术集成流域自然属性数据库,通过距离平方倒数法对雨量数据进行空间插值,SCS曲线数法计算水文损失,运动波法计算直接径流与河道洪水演进,选用基流指数退水法模拟流域基流,并对模型中水库模拟部分进行适当修正.经模型校验,模拟结果表明,计算流量与观测流量拟合较好,效率系数大于0.8,洪峰流量误差低于4%,峰现时间误差低于2 h,该模型在土地利用变化对洪水水文要素的影响研究方面有较好的应用前景.  相似文献   

4.
为满足流域防洪规划工作的需要,针对鄱阳湖湖区暴雨洪水特点,分别用面积比拟法,修正总入流法,单水源模型(现预报方案),新安江三水源模型,对湖区4个实际大水年份进行分析计算.在新安江三水源模型中分析了鄱阳湖高低水位时水陆面积变化对产汇流的影响,并给出了相应的计算公式.结果表明,复杂的概念性降雨径流模型能充分地模拟径流洪水过程;而在合理的条件下,运用简单的方法亦能取得较好的效果,通过比较分析,提出鄱阳湖  相似文献   

5.
本文利用全球陆面数据同化系统与降雨观测数据,以陕西半湿润区陈河流域为研究对象,驱动WRF-Hydro模型,研究该模型的表现和适用性,并在结构、参数、输入输出和模拟结果方面与新安江模型对比.考虑到次表面层与实际包气带的区别,引入土层厚度乘子ZSOILFAC对前者进行等比缩放,发现其与新安江模型反推包气带的厚度有较好的一致性.研究表明:在陈河流域中WRF-Hydro计算步长须在建议值的基础上缩小; WRF-Hydro模型善于模拟洪水细节,新安江模型表现好且稳定;前者的径流深和洪峰合格率平于或略低于后者;在两个指标均合格的洪水中,前者平均均方根误差比后者小21.5%,但对于其他洪水,前者平均均方根误差比后者大56.2%; WRF-Hydro在洪水起涨时刻模拟较好,表现出其在中小流域应用的潜力.  相似文献   

6.
太湖流域水文数学模型   总被引:14,自引:4,他引:10  
本文针对太湖流域研制了全流域水文数学模型,该模型包括河流、湖泊模拟、边界条件模拟、降雨径流模拟、工程情况及控制运行方式模拟以及骨干河网中水流运动模拟五个方面。模型经1984、1985两年资料进行了上述五个方面的全面率定和检验,模拟结果与实测基本吻合。本模型全面通用,因此可以用来研究太湖流域洪水、枯水及调度等诸方面课题,本文简要地介绍应用该模型研究围垦的影响、规划工程的防洪效果及设计典型年选择三方面问题。  相似文献   

7.
阿克苏河(中吉国际河流)现已成为塔里木河的主河源,它对塔里木河干流的形成、发展和演变过程起着决定性作用.随着国家西部开发战略--塔里木河流域综合治理的深入开展和实施,阿克苏河流域的水文特征、水文预报等研究成为热点.特别是在干旱区中纬度高海拔流域的河流中,阿克苏河是以冰雪融水补充为主河流的典型代表,对阿克苏河流域径流进行预报研究具有理论和现实意义.鉴于此:(i)结合干旱区无资料或少资料的现状,利用现有的水文气象资料,尝试并构建日尺度水文预报方法;(ii)采用高空气温代替地面实测气温与日径流相关关系法、AR(p)预报模型、气温降雨修正的AR(p)预报模型和NAM降雨径流模型,对阿克苏流域的两大支流进行日径流模拟和预报;(iii)对4种方法模拟结果进行对比分析,表明利用气温和降雨修正后的AR(p)模型所用水文气象资料少、应用简便、预报精度较高、比较适用于资料较缺乏的阿克苏流域的短期径流预报.该研究以日尺度进行水文预报,在该流域尚属首次,不仅为阿克苏河、塔里木河的水文预报、洪水防治和全流域的水量调度等提供基础,也为干旱区其他流域的水文预报提供了参考方法.  相似文献   

8.
阿克苏河(中吉国际河流)现已成为塔里木河的主河源,它对塔里木河干流的形成、发展和演变过程起着决定性作用.随着国家西部开发战略--塔里木河流域综合治理的深入开展和实施,阿克苏河流域的水文特征、水文预报等研究成为热点.特别是在干旱区中纬度高海拔流域的河流中,阿克苏河是以冰雪融水补充为主河流的典型代表,对阿克苏河流域径流进行预报研究具有理论和现实意义.鉴于此(i)结合干旱区无资料或少资料的现状,利用现有的水文气象资料,尝试并构建日尺度水文预报方法;(ii)采用高空气温代替地面实测气温与日径流相关关系法、AR(p)预报模型、气温降雨修正的AR(p)预报模型和NAM降雨径流模型,对阿克苏流域的两大支流进行日径流模拟和预报;(iii)对4种方法模拟结果进行对比分析,表明利用气温和降雨修正后的AR(p)模型所用水文气象资料少、应用简便、预报精度较高、比较适用于资料较缺乏的阿克苏流域的短期径流预报.该研究以日尺度进行水文预报,在该流域尚属首次,不仅为阿克苏河、塔里木河的水文预报、洪水防治和全流域的水量调度等提供基础,也为干旱区其他流域的水文预报提供了参考方法.  相似文献   

9.
中国北方半干旱地区的降水与下垫面条件具有明显的时空异质性,如何完整准确地描述该类区域的水文过程是当代水文学研究的难点之一.选择半干旱地区水文实验区域——绥德流域和曹坪流域,通过构建不同时空规律的降水场,并结合3种不同产流机制的水文模型,进行大型数值模拟实验,去探究时间、空间、产流机制等因素对半干旱地区洪水模拟的影响,为该类地区水文模型的研制工作提供借鉴.结果 表明:1)半干旱地区中小流域的产流对降雨强度较为敏感,因此降水输入的时间步长对洪水模拟效果的影响程度较大;相比之下,流域雨量站数量的增减,仅体现在降雨分布场的暴雨中心缺失以及面平均降雨量的微小差别,对洪水模拟效果的影响程度较小.2)水文模型能否准确描述主导水文过程是半干旱地区洪水模拟效果优良的关键,流域的尺度效应及其下垫面条件的空间异质性是半干旱地区不同水文模型研制和调整应当优先考虑的问题,无论时间步长、雨量站数量怎么组合,产流结构适宜的模型其模拟效果总是趋于较好的结果.  相似文献   

10.
强烈下渗条件下天然河道洪水演进模拟方法   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
河道洪水演进模拟是河道洪水预报与汇流计算的主要内容和关键.对于常年断流、河水与地下水长期处于脱节状态的河道,一旦行洪下渗非常强烈,渗漏量很大.不考虑河道下渗洪水演进模拟模型,无法准确模拟真实的洪水运动行为,不能用于洪水模拟预报.本文采用土壤下渗理论描述河道下渗,推导出了河道下渗流量计算公式,建立了基于霍顿下渗公式的河道下渗模拟方法;并把下渗当做单位区间出流,与基于马斯京根康吉法天然河道洪水演进模型进行耦合,构建了强烈下渗条件下天然河道洪水演进模拟模型.针对天然河道水力特性复杂特点,研究了洪水演进模型参数确定方法和波速计算方法.海河流域漳卫河水系岳城水库-蔡小庄段的典型场次洪水应用结果表明,模型能很好反映强烈下渗条件下洪水演进实际情况,具有很高模拟精度,基于土壤下渗理论的下渗量计算公式和模拟方法可以很好地模拟河道下渗过程.这一模型具有计算简便、参数确定简单、适合于洪水预报等特点,在干旱和半干旱地区河道洪水演进模拟预报与河道汇流计算中也具有一定的推广应用价值.  相似文献   

11.
G) Personalia     
Abstract

This paper proposes a framework for identifying the parameters of a lumped routing model in small to medium sized catchments where lateral inflows can be large but poorly defined. In a first step, a priori estimates of the parameters are made based on topography, aerial photographs, flood marks and field surveys. In a second step, runoff data are analysed of reservoir release events and convective events where no rainfall in the direct catchments occurred. In a third step the routing model is calibrated to the results of hydrodynamic models for scenarios of different magnitudes. In a fourth step, these pieces of information are combined, allowing for soft expert judgement to be incorporated. In a fifth step, the routing parameters are fine tuned to observed flood events where lateral inflows are estimated by a rainfall—runoff model. The framework is illustrated by the Kamp flood forecasting system in Austria that has been in operational use since 2006.  相似文献   

12.
ABSTRACT

The major flood of 2014 in the two eastern, transboundary rivers, the Jhelum and Chenab in Punjab, Pakistan, was simulated using the two-dimensional rainfall–runoff model. The simulated hydrograph showed good agreement with the observed discharge at the model outlet and intervening barrages, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.86 at the basin outlet. Further, simulated flood inundation extent showed good agreement with the MODIS imagery with a fit (%) of 0.87. For some affected areas that experienced short-duration flooding, local housing damage data confirmed the simulated results. Besides the rainfall–runoff and flood inundation modelling, parameter sensitivity analysis was undertaken to identify the influence of various river and floodplain parameters. The analysis showed that the river channel geometric parameters and the roughness coefficients exerted the primary influence over flood extent and peak flow.  相似文献   

13.
Yi-Ru Chen  Bofu Yu 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(10):1759-1769
Abstract

Over the past century, land-use has changed in southeast Queensland, and when coupled with climatic change, the risk of flooding has increased. This research aims to examine impacts of climate and land-use changes on flood runoff in southeast Queensland, Australia. A rainfall–runoff model, RORB, was calibrated and validated using observed flood hydrographs for one rural and one urbanized catchment, for 1961–1990. The validated model was then used to generate flood hydrographs using projected rainfall based on two climate models: the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1) and the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), for 2016–2045. Projected daily rainfall for the two contrasting periods was used to derive adjustment factors for a given frequency of occurrence. Two land-use change scenarios were used to evaluate likely impacts. Based on the projected rainfall, the results showed that, in both catchments, future flood magnitudes are unlikely to increase for large flood events. Extreme land-use change would significantly impact flooding in the rural catchment, but not the urbanized catchment.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Y. Gyasi-Agyei  相似文献   

14.
J. Holden  T. P. Burt 《水文研究》2002,16(13):2537-2557
Blanket peat covers the headwaters of many major European rivers. Runoff production in upland blanket peat catchments is flashy with large flood peaks and short lag times; there is minimal baseflow. Little is known about the exact processes of infiltration and runoff generation within these upland headwaters. This paper presents results from a set of rainfall simulation experiments performed on the blanket peat moorland of the North Pennines, UK. Rainfall was simulated at low intensities (3–12 mm h?1), typical of natural rainfall, on bare and vegetated peat surfaces. Runoff response shows that infiltration rate increases with rainfall intensity; the use of low‐intensity rainfall therefore allows a more realistic evaluation of infiltration rates and flow processes than previous studies. Overland flow is shown to be common on both vegetated and bare peat surfaces although surface cover does exert some control. Most runoff is produced within the top few centimetres of the peat and runoff response decreases rapidly with depth. Little vertical percolation takes place to depths greater than 10 cm owing to the saturation of the peat mass. This study provides evidence that the quickflow response of upland blanket peat catchments is a result of saturation‐excess overland flow generation. Rainfall–runoff response from small plots varies with season. Following warm, dry weather, rainfall tends to infiltrate more readily into blanket peat, not just initially but to the extent that steady‐state surface runoff rates are reduced and more flow takes place within the peat, albeit at shallow depth. Sediment erosion from bare peat plots tends to be supply limited. Seasonal weather conditions may affect this in that after a warm, dry spell, surface desiccation allows sediment erosion to become transport limited. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Abstract

The problem of selecting appropriate objective functions for the identification of a lumped conceptual rainfall–runoff model is investigated, focusing on the value of the model in an operational setting. A probability-distributed soil moisture model is coupled with a linear parallel routing scheme, and conditioned on rainfall–runoff observations from three catchments in the southeast of England. Using an abstraction control problem, which requires accurate simulation of the intermediate flow range, it is shown that using the traditional RMSE fit criterion, produces operationally sub-optimal predictions. This is true in the identification period, when applied to a testing period, and to proxy catchment data. Using a second case study of the Leaf River in Mississippi (USA), where the focus changes to predicting flood peaks over a specified threshold, also suggests that the relevant flood threshold should govern the objective function choice. It is concluded that, due to limitations in the structure of the employed model, it would be counter-productive to try to achieve a good all-round representation of the rainfall–runoff processes, and that a more empirical approach to identification may be preferred for specific forecasting problems. This leaves us with the question of how far hydrological realism should be sacrificed in favour of purpose-driven objective functions.  相似文献   

16.
17.
This paper discusses the analysis and modelling of the hydrological system of the basin of the Kara River, a transboundary river in Togo and Benin, as a necessary step towards sustainable water resources management. The methodological approach integrates the use of discharge parameters, flow duration curves and the lumped conceptual model IHACRES. A Sobol sensitivity analysis is performed and the model is calibrated by applying the shuffled complex evolution algorithm. Results show that discharge generation in three nested catchments of the basin is affected by landscape physical characteristics. The IHACRES model adequately simulates the rainfall–runoff dynamics in the basin with a mean modified Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measure of 0.6. Modelling results indicate that parameters controlling rainfall transformation to effective rainfall are more sensitive than those routing the streamflow. This study provides insights into understanding the catchment’s hydrological system. Nevertheless, further investigations are required to better understand detailed runoff generation processes.
EDITOR M.C. Acreman; ASSOCIATE EDITOR N Verhoest  相似文献   

18.
基于改进型SIMTOP参数化径流方案和新安江模型的三层土壤水量平衡计算方法,本文构建了一个输入数据和率定参数较少、同时具有地形指数尺度转换机制、较好描述二维水文过程的简单高效的大尺度水文模型TOPX,并将其与区域环境系统集成模式RIEMS紧密耦合,以增强区域气候模式对大尺度流域径流量的定量数值模拟能力.TOPX模型在酉水河流域和泾河流域的离线测试表明:该模型对小尺度流域的径流量模拟精度较高,能够较好地描述流域水文变化过程;同时,该模型在大尺度上具有较强的分布式模拟能力,能够捕捉陆面水文过程的主要特征和时空演变特点.TOPX与RIEMS的耦合模式在泾河流域进行了在线测试,借助TOPX模型中的地形指数降尺度转换和水文过程产汇流机制,耦合模式实现了利用区域气候模式模拟的气象资料来驱动水文模型进行大尺度流域日径流量的模拟.进一步分析还表明:区域气候模式RIEMS模拟的降水时空分布数据的精度是影响耦合模式对径流量模拟效果的关键因素.  相似文献   

19.
Abstract

Modelling of the rainfall–runoff transformation process and routing of river flows in the Kilombero River basin and its five sub-catchments within the Rufiji River basin in Tanzania was undertaken using three system (black-box) models—a simple linear model, a linear perturbation model and a linear varying gain factor model—in their linear transfer function forms. A lumped conceptual model—the soil moisture accounting and routing model—was also applied to the sub-catchments and the basin. The HEC-HMS model, which is a distributed model, was applied only to the entire Kilombero River basin. River discharge, rainfall and potential evaporation data were used as inputs to the appropriate models and it was observed that sometimes the system models performed better than complex hydrological models, especially in large catchments, illustrating the usefulness of using simple black-box models in datascarce situations.  相似文献   

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