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1.
Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influ-ence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi (Jiji) earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. 1 This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; 2 The attitudes of poten-tial rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning.  相似文献   

2.
Based on the heterogeneity of fault plane strength,the macro rupture process of a fault plane can be treated as the rupture accumulation process of local micro-elements in the fault surface.Assuming that the strength of the local micro-elements follows the Weibull probability distribution,the macro-fault constitutive relationship of the complete load-deformation process is derived from a statistical mechanics viewpoint.Applying a one-dimensional earthquake mechanics model and using far-field displacement a as the control variable,the problem of earthquake instability is investigated by employing the stability theory.The results show that the system stiffness ratio(stiffness ratio of fault to surroun-ding rock) β is the important parameter that affects the occurrence of earthquakes.Earthquake instability occurs only when β < 1,and the sudden stress jump appears at the displacement turning point of the equilibrium path curve.The expression of three important parameters for earthquakes(fault half-dislocation distance after earthquake,earthquake stress drop and elastic energy release) is also given.When β≥1,the earthquake does not occur and the fault only slips slowly without an earthquake.  相似文献   

3.
The enumerating algorithm has been introduced into the fitting procedure of the ASR model. Based on the detailed study of 21 large earthquakes with M≥6. 8 in the Chinese Mainland,the statistical features of seismic strain release before large earthquakes have been summarized. In the mass,the strain release models can be divided into five types. The first is the DA model,in which the strain release accelerates in broader areas and decelerates in small areas around the epicenter. Approximately 38% of earthquake samples are of this type. The second is the AD model,in which the strain release decelerates in broader areas and accelerates in smaller areas around the epicenter with an occupying ratioof approximately 19%. The third is ASR,in which only accelerating strain release can be observed. Cases of this model amount to about 14%. The fourth is DSR,in which only decelerating strain release can be checked,amounting to about 24%. There is only one earthquake sample of the fifth type (LSR),which shows a linear strain release. There is a 3～6 years difference in the duration of pre-shock sequences between the accelerating and decelerating models. This means that seismic quiescence against a background of increased seismicity of small earthquakes before large earthquakes are a typical feature in general. For the DA model,the average size of critical regions for steady accelerating and decelerating strain release is about 260km to 400km and 100km to 200km,respectively,3 to 5 times and 1 to 2 times the rupture size of an earthquake of magnitude 7. 0. The AD model is the opposite of the DA model. The model parameter,m value,has good stability. The ratio of ASR is about the same for accelerating seismic strain release phenomena,no matter what the strain release models are,or how large the strain release quantity is. With regard to decelerating seismic strain release phenomena, the DA model has the most distinctive decelerating strain release characteristic and is the typical feature of seismic strain release,i. e. "decelerating in-accelerating out seismic strain model".  相似文献   

4.
An earthquake is regarded as a fracture from the viewpoint of continuum mechanics, in which stress and strain play key roles in understanding the nature of a seismic source. This review briefly outlines the mechanics of a seismic source in terms of the dislocation model and crack model. The introduction includes the Coulomb failure criterion, static stress drop, dynamic stress drop, the Griffith criterion, and the scaling of source parameters. The selection of topics in the introduction emphasizes the application of seismic data, i.e., in practice, the mechanical parameters introduced here are measurable in the interpretation and analysis of seismic waveform data.  相似文献   

5.
The "field" and "source" are two important branches in seismology and earthquake research.In this paper,we use a computer model to study the relation between the field and the source in earthquake activity.In our modeling,a network of nonlinear elements is used to simulate seismic activity of seismic zones in a seismotectonic block.Constant strain rate is enforced on the boundary of the model,cyclic seismic activity,quasi-periodic variation of stress field intensity,and strain energy are observed with high and low fluctuations.There is a main seismicity area in seismic cycles,and the main seismicity area shows the spatial migration during different seismic cycles.If the precursory area is related to high element stress,it is found that the development of precursors in our model is quite complicated.No certain relation between the precursors and earthquakes has been discovered.Anomalies show different characteristics in the seismic quiet period and active period.All of the seismic zones in the system hav  相似文献   

6.
Vertical records are critically important when determining the rupture model of an earthquake, especially a thrust earthquake. Due to the relatively low fitness level of near-field vertical displacements, the precision of previous rupture models is relatively low, and the seismic hazard evaluated thereafter should be further updated. In this study, we applied three-component displacement records from GPS stations in and around the source region of the 2013 MW6.6 Lushan earthquake to re-investigate the rupture model.To improve the resolution of the rupture model, records from both continuous and campaign GPS stations were gathered, and secular deformations of the GPS movements were removed from the records of the campaign stations to ensure their reliability. The rupture model was derived by the steepest descent method(SDM), which is based on a layered velocity structure. The peak slip value was about 0.75 m, with a seismic moment release of 9.89 × 10~(18) N·m, which was equivalent to an M_W6.6 event. The inferred fault geometry coincided well with the aftershock distribution of the Lushan earthquake. Unlike previous rupture models, a secondary slip asperity existed at a shallow depth and even touched the ground surface. Based on the distribution of the co-seismic ruptures of the Lushan and Wenchuan earthquakes, post-seismic relaxation of the Wenchuan earthquake, and tectonic loading process, we proposed that the seismic hazard is quite high and still needs special attention in the seismic gap between the two earthquakes.  相似文献   

7.
潮汐触发地震研究进展综述   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
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8.
Broadband P and S waves source spectra of 12 MS5.0 earthquakes of the 1997 Jiashi, Xinjiang, China, earthquake swarm recorded at 13 GDSN stations have been analyzed. Rupture size and static stress drop of these earthquakes have been estimated through measuring the corner frequency of the source spectra. Direction of rupture propagation of the earthquake faulting has also been inferred from the azimuthal variation of the corner frequency. The main results are as follows: ①The rupture size of MS6.0 strong earthquakes is in the range of 10～20 km, while that of MS=5.0～5.5 earthquakes is 6～10 km.② The static stress drop of the swarm earthquakes is rather low, being of the order of 0.1 MPa. This implies that the deformation release rate in the source region may be low. ③ Stress drop of the earthquakes appears to be proportional to their seismic moment, and also to be dependent on their focal mechanism. The stress drop of normal faulting earthquakes is usually lower than that of strike-slip type earthquakes. ④ For each MS6.0 earthquake there exists an apparent azimuthal variation of the corner frequencies. Azimuthally variation pattern of corner frequencies of different earthquakes shows that the source rupture pattern of the Jiashi earthquake swarm is complex and no uniform rupture expanding direction exists.  相似文献   

9.
The September 21,1999,Jiji(Chi-Chi) MW7.6 earthquake is the strongest event occurred since 1900 in Taiwan of China.It is located in the middle segment of the western seismic zone of Taiwan.Based on several versions of China earthquake catalogue this study found that a seismic gap of M≥5 earthquakes appeared,in and around the epicenter region,24 years before and lasted up to the mainshock occurrence.This study also noticed that there existed a lager seismically quiet region of M≥4 earthquakes,which lasted for about 2.5 years before the mainshock occurrence.The spatial variation pattern of regional seismicity before the mainshock seems to match with its coseismic source rupture process.The mentioned seismicity gap and seismic quiescence might be an indication of the preparation process of the Jiji strong earthquake.  相似文献   

10.
Scaling of stress drop and high-frequency fall-off of source spectra   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
It has been observed for a long time that the high-frequency fall-off constant of source spectra is about 2 for "large" earthquakes and about 3 for "small" earthquakes. For earthquakes between "large" and "small", the highfrequency fall-off constant is not an integer and varies with the size of the earthquake. In this article such a variation is explained in the perspective of the scaling of stress drop, which proposes a new approach to the study of the scaling of stress drop using seismic data with lower quality of completeness and high-frequency characteristics. The study on the source spectra of the aftershocks of the 1988 Lancang-Gengma, Yunnan, China earthquake shows that the high-frequency fall-off of source spectra and its variation with the size of earthquake can be well explained by the model that for "large" earthquakes the stress drop is a constant while for "small" earthquakes the stress drop increases with the size of the earthquake.  相似文献   

11.
Many uncertainty factors need be dealt with in the prediction of seismic hazard for a 10-year period.Restricted by these uncertainties,the result of prediction is also uncertain to a certain extent,so the probabilistic analysis method of seismic hazard should be adopted.In consideration of the inhomogeneity of the time,location,and magnitude of future earthquakes and the probabilistic combination of the background of long-term seismic hazard(geology,geophysical field,etc.)and the precursors of earthquake occurrence,a model of probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 years s proposed.Considering the inhomogeneity of data and earthquake precursors for different regions in China,a simplified model is also proposed in order to satisfy the needs of different regions around the country.A trial in North China is used to discuss the application of the model.The method proposed in this paper can be used in the probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 years.According to the  相似文献   

12.
The gestation and occurrence of strong earthquakes are closely related to fault activity, which is not only revealed by abundant experimentation and seismism but also proved by modern seismology. On the Chinese mainland, the relation between earthquake activity and active faults is one of the bases for partitioning potential seismic sources, analyzing the seismotectonics and estimating location of strong earthquakes.Due to the nonuniformity of earth media, instability of observation systems and disturbance of the environment, etc, the variety of observational data is complicated, that is, there is no absolutely "normal" or "abnormal", and seismic anomalies can be divided into many mutually exclusive "abnormal states". In different conditions of combined time-space-strength, determining seismic anomalies by different monomial forecast methods and its efficiency could be different due to the uncertainty of a precursor itself or complexity of the relationship between a precursor and earthquake gestation. It is very difficult to discover and dispose of this difference in actual application in a "two-state" model. But in a "multi-state" model, the difference can be easily reflected and the optimal combination of forecasting parameters for a forecast method can also be determined easily.Based on the "multi-state" precursory model and the optimization method for parameters of earthquake forecast model under the condition of optimal forecast efficiency, the relationship of the spatial location of earthquake with M≥6.0 and active faults in three seismic belts are analyzed. The results demonstrate that in the Hetao Seismic Belt, seismicity is mostly concentrated in the range of 20 km along the fault, the optimization model can forecast the location of potential earthquakes of M≥6.0 near the faults with a relatively high accuracy and the reliability is 0.5; while in the Qilian Mt. Seismic Belt, the reliability only reaches 0.14 when we use the model to estimate earthquakes within 30 km range along the faults. The "multi-state" precursory model, the efficiency-evaluating model and the parameter selection of individual earthquake forecast model based on optimal efficiency are of certain revelatory and practicable meanings for developing knowledge about precursors, investigating the laws of earthquake preparation and searching for optimal forecasting methods.  相似文献   

13.
During the period of 1999-2002, the Chinese seismologists made a serious of developments in the study on seis-mic sources including observations, experiments and theory. In the field of observation, the methods of the accu-racy location of earthquake sources, the inversion of seismic moment tensor and the mechanism of earthquake source are improved and developed. A lot of important earthquake events are studied by using these methods. The rupture processes of these events are inverted and investigated combined with the local stress fields and the tec-tonic moment by using the measurements of surface deformation. In the fields of experiments and theory, many developments are obtained in cause of seismic formation, condition of stress and tectonics, dynamics of earthquake rupture, rock fracture and nucleation of strong earthquakes.  相似文献   

14.
Earthquake probability prediction is based on earthquakes occurred in a certain seismo-tectonic region to predict the probable times and probability of certain magnitude segment earthquake or the earthquake whose mag-nitude is larger than certain magnitude low limit in the coming certain period, this was extensively applied to earthquake risk analysis and earthquake forecast. The main characteristics of the method are that when earthquake statistical model was founded according to the occurred …  相似文献   

15.
Breakthrough point source model, extended earthquake source model is used to calculate more seismic source parameters in this paper. We express seismic source using higher degree moment tensors, to reduce a large number terms originally presenting in higher degree moment tensor representation, Haskell rupture model is used. We inverted the source parameters of Mani earthquake in Tibet using broad-band body wave of 32 stations of Global Seismograph Network (GSN), the results show that it is a strike-slip fault, rupture direction is 75° , rupture duration is 19 s, the fault plan is f =77° , d =88° , l =0° , the auxiliary plane is f =347° , d =90° , l =178° , and the fault dimension is 47 km′ 28 km. These results will give new quantitative data for earth dynamics and have practical meaning for seismic source tomography research.  相似文献   

16.
Focal Fault of the 1999 Datong Ms5.6 Earthquake in Shanxi Province   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Several earthquakes with Ms≥5.0 occurred in the Datong seismic region in 1989,1991 and 1999,The precise focus location of the earthquake sequence was made by the records of the remote sensing seismic station network in Datong.Using that data together with macro-intensity distribution and focal mechanism solutions,we analyze the difference among three subsequences.The results show that the focal fault of the 1999 Ms 5.6 earthquake was a NWW-trending left-lateral strike-slip fault.It is 16km long and 12km wide.It developed at the depth of 5km and is nearly vertical in dip.The two previous earthquake subsequences,however,were generated by activity along NNE-trending right-lateral strike-slip fault.It can be found that the rupture directioin of the 1999 earthquake has changed.It is generally found that a rupture zone has more than two directions and has different strength along these two directions.The complicate degree of focal circumstance is related to the type of earthquake sequences.There is the NE-trending Dawangcun fault and the NW-trending Tuanbu fault in the seismic region,but no proof indicates a connection between focal faults and these two tectonic faults.The feature that focal faults of three subsequences are strike-slip is different from that of the two tectonic faults.It is suggested that the 1999 earthquake subsequence was possibly generated by a new rupture.  相似文献   

17.
Crustal stress field holds an important position in geodynamics research, such as in plate motion simulations, uplift of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau and earthquake preparation and occurrence. However, most of the crustal stress studies emphasize particularly on the determination of stress direction, with little study being done on stress magnitude at present. After reviewing ideas on a stress magnitude study from geological, geophysical and various other aspects, a method to estimate the stress magnitude in the source region according to the deflection of stress direction before and after large earthquakes and the stress drop tensor of earthquake rupture has been developed. The proposed method can also be supplemented by the average apparent stress before and after large earthquakes. The stress direction deflection before and after large earthquakes can be inverted by massive focal mechanisms of foreshocks and aftershocks and the stress drop field generated by the seismic source can be calculated by the detailed distribution of the earthquakes rupture. The mathematical relationship can then be constructed between the stress drop field, where its magnitude and direction are known and the stress tensor before and after large earthquakes, where its direction is known but magnitude is unknown, thereby obtaining the stress magnitude. The average apparent stress before and after large earthquakes can be obtained by using the catalog of broadband radiated energy and seismic moment tensor of foreshocks and aftershocks and the different responses to stress drops. This relationship leads to another estimation of stress magnitude before a large earthquake. The stress magnitude and its error are constrained by combining the two methods, which provide new constraints for the geodynamics study.  相似文献   

18.
This paper introduces the geological structure background around the 2014 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake area, investigates and analyzes the regime of small earthquake activity and the characteristics of regional seismicity pattern in Xinjiang before the earthquake, and compares the characteristics of the regional seismic activity with the 2008 Yutian Ms7.3 earthquake. The results show： ① 2 ~ 3 years before the 2014 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake, Xinjiang was in a seismic active state with strong earthquake occurring successively, and before the 2008 Ms 7. 3 earthquake, Xinjiang was in the quiet state of moderate-small earthquakes with M3. 0 ~ 4. 0. ② Before this Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake, the regional seismic activity showed a short-term anomaly feature, that is, seismicity of M ≥ 5. 0 earthquakes significantly increased on the Altun seismic zone and in the source area three years before the Ms7.3 earthquake, while a five year long quiescence of seismicity of M ≥4. 0 earthquakes appeared on the east of the source area in a range of about 440kin. Six months before this M7. 3 earthquake, there existed seismic gap of M3. 0 ~ 4. 0 earthquakes and near-conjugate seismic belt magnitude 3. 0 and 4. 0 in the source area. ③ The state of strong earthquake activity and the seismicity pattern of small earthquakes before this Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake were significantly different to that before the 2008 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake, and this may be related to the different seismogenic environments of the two Ms7. 3 earthquakes.  相似文献   

19.
The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance ( ≤ 100kin and on the confines of 300 ～ 700km), and a dominant time interval ( ≤ la and on the confines of 3 - 4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.  相似文献   

20.
On the basis of gap's temporal-spatial characteristics in and around source area before an earthquake, we propose a method to estimate characteristic parameters (characteristic distance and time) in the region-time-length (RTL) algorithm and introduce the method of correlation coefficient developed by some authors in 2006 to determine the characteristic parameters. The anomalous seismic activities before four moderately strong earthquakes occurred in the northwestern and southwestern China in recent years are studied by the two methods. The results show that the method to estimate characteristic parameters advanced in this paper is a simple one, which possesses a physical meaning and is well applicable to the four moderately strong earthquakes studied.  相似文献   

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