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1.
Historical seismic data and seismogenic information are quite scarce for the low seismicity region, and modeling the parameters uncertainties based on probabilistic model is suspicious. The convex set theory-based seismic hazard analysis approach is proposed. The uncertainties of b value, the annual occurrence rate v and the upper bound magnitude Mu are described by the envelop bound convex model and the ellipsoidal bound convex model. Convex analysis method and China probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodology are combined to perform a bound seismic hazard analysis for Ningbo city, China. The seismic intensity interval obtained using the bound seismic hazard analysis is compared with that calculated using China probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodology. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the interval of seismic intensity is most sensitive to the annual occurrence rate v. Furthermore, the different convex models have little effect on the interval of seismic intensity.  相似文献   

2.
Probabilistic seismic hazard maps, in terms of spectral acceleration and uniform hazard response spectra at given sites, considering local soil conditions, represent a much more complete estimate of the seismic hazard than the traditional maps in terms of peak ground acceleration or macroseismic intensity. This is particularly true when the requests of urban planners and engineers have to be met. The present analysis shows how some hazard parameters, such as the effective peak acceleration and the spectrum intensity, can well synthesise the overall information available from traditional probabilistic studies, but also suggests that soil condition is a first-order ingredient for effective seismic hazard mapping at national level. Three Italian towns, damaged by the 1997 Umbria–Marche earthquake sequence, are considered as example to demonstrate that: (1) soil condition dependent uniform hazard spectra well approximate actual spectra recorded during some events of the seismic sequence; (2) for these localities, the design spectrum of the present Italian seismic code does not seem adequate.

These considerations have induced the Italian scientific community to propose an updating of the national seismic zonation on the basis of several hazard parameters, that are described in this paper.  相似文献   


3.
Seismic fragility can be assessed by conducting incremental dynamic analysis (IDA). This study extends the current conditional mean spectrum (CMS)-based record selection approach for IDA by taking into account detailed seismic hazard information. The proposed method is applied to conventional wood-frame houses in Canada, across which dominant earthquake scenarios and associated hazard levels vary significantly. Effects due to different seismic environments, site conditions, CMS-based record selection methods, and house models are investigated by comparing various seismic fragility models. Moreover, relative impact of the key characteristics is evaluated in terms of seismic loss curve for a group of wood-frame houses. Importantly, a close examination of regional seismic hazard characteristics using seismic hazard curve and seismic deaggregation facilitates the deeper understanding of the impact of ground motion characteristics on seismic fragility. A comprehensive and systematic assessment of key uncertainties associated with seismic fragility is provided.  相似文献   

4.
Disaggregation of the seismic hazard has become a popular technique to convey information on the main sources contributing to the hazard at a particular site. Recently published work adopts geographic disaggregation analysis of seismic hazard as a tool to identify dominant rupture scenarios for municipalities in Mainland Portugal. The authors conclude that the seismic hazard in South and Central Portugal is dominated by the seismicity that takes place offshore, around 70km WSW of Cape S. Vicente, both for the return periods of 475 years and 975 years. Whilst recognizing the merits of the approach taken and the utility of the tools developed, we take issue with this last conclusion. We consider that the proposed disaggregation returns a picture of the biases in the hazard analysis, more than any real feature of the distribution of relevant seismogenic sources.  相似文献   

5.
We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in the framework of the EU project UPStrat-MAFA using the so-called site approach implemented in the SASHA computational code. This approach estimates seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by basically relying on local information about documented effects of past seismic events in the framework of a formally coherent and complete treatment of intensity data. In the case of Iceland, due to the lack of observed intensities for past earthquakes, local seismic histories were built using indirect macroseismic estimates deduced from epicentral information through an empirical attenuation relationship in probabilistic form. Seismic hazard was computed for four exceedance probabilities for an exposure time of 50 years, equivalent to average return periods of 50, 200, 475 and 975 years. For some localities, further return periods were examined and deaggregation analysis was performed. Results appear significantly different from previous seismic hazard maps, though just a semi-qualitative comparison is possible because of the different shaking measure considered (peak ground acceleration versus intensity), and the different computational methodology and input data used in these studies.  相似文献   

6.
Seismic Hazard Assessment: Issues and Alternatives   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Seismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. Although seismic hazard and risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different. Furthermore, seismic risk is more important in engineering design and other policy considerations. Seismic hazard assessment is an effort by earth scientists to quantify seismic hazard and its associated uncertainty in time and space and to provide seismic hazard estimates for seismic risk assessment and other applications. Although seismic hazard assessment is more a scientific issue, it deserves special attention because of its significant implication to society. Two approaches, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment. Although PSHA has been proclaimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is scientifically flawed (i.e., the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid). Use of PSHA could lead to either unsafe or overly conservative engineering design or public policy, each of which has dire consequences to society. On the other hand, DSHA is a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment even though it has been labeled as unreliable. The biggest drawback of DSHA is that the temporal characteristics (i.e., earthquake frequency of occurrence and the associated uncertainty) are often neglected. An alternative, seismic hazard analysis (SHA), utilizes earthquake science and statistics directly and provides a seismic hazard estimate that can be readily used for seismic risk assessment and other applications.  相似文献   

7.
Two kinds of methods for determining seismic parameters are presented,that is,the potential seismic source zoning method and grid-spatially smoothing method. The Gaussian smoothing method and the modified Gaussian smoothing method are described in detail, and a comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods is made. Then,we take central China as the study region,and use the Gaussian smoothing method and potential seismic source zoning method to build seismic models to calculate the mean annual seismic rate. Seismic hazard is calculated using the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to construct the ground motion acceleration zoning maps. The differences between the maps and these models are discussed and the causes are investigated. The results show that the spatial smoothing method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard over the moderate and low seismicity regions or the hazard caused by background seismicity; while the potential seismic source zoning method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard in well-defined seismotectonics. Combining the spatial smoothing method and the potential seismic source zoning method with an integrated account of the seismicity and known seismotectonics is a feasible approach to estimate the seismic hazard in moderate and low seismicity regions.  相似文献   

8.
Earthquake Researeh in Ch一na461 .METHODLet R be some value measured or estimated as a sequenee ina’‘Past”time interval(一丁,O)(I)万‘月,=(RI,…,R。),R,之R。,R=nlaX l二f匕11(RI,…,R,,) Values(l)eould have an arbitrary Physieal nature.BelowweshalleonsiderEq.(l)asearthquakemagnitudes in a given seismic aetive region or logarithms of seismie Peak ground aeeelerations at习given site.Ro isa而nimum eutoff value;it 15 defined by Possibilities of registration systems or wasehosen as the …  相似文献   

9.
徐伟进  吴健 《地球物理学报》2017,60(8):3110-3118
本文以东北、华北及川滇地区为例,系统研究了余震时空丛集对概率地震危险性分析的影响.采用基于传染型余震序列模型(ETAS)的蒙特卡罗模拟方法,模拟了包含余震和不包含余震的两套地震序列,然后以模拟地震目录为基础输入,采用基于空间光滑地震活动性模型的地震危险性分析方法计算了两套地震危险性结果——PGA(Peak Ground Acceleration,峰值加速度),通过分析比较这两套PGA的绝对差值和相对差值来研究余震时空丛集对概率地震危险性分析的影响.研究结果表明余震对50年超越概率10%地震危险性计算结果的影响均值为6%左右,最大可达10%,并且随着超越概率水平的提高,余震影响也越大.弱地震活动区余震对概率地震危险性分析的影响要高于强地震活动区.研究结果还进一步揭示两套PGA结果绝对差值的最大值约为15 cm·s~(-2),且出现在高PGA区,这意味着余震对概率地震危险性计算结果不会产生显著影响.因此在地震区划或一般性地震危险性分析中可考虑不用删除余震.  相似文献   

10.
A seismic hazard assessment study of continental Ecuador is presented in this paper. The study begins with a revision of the available information on seismic events and the elaboration of a seismic catalog homogenized to magnitude Mw. Different seismic source definitions are revised and a new area-source model, based on geological and seismic data, is proposed. The available ground motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction sources are analyzed and selected for the tectonic environments observed in Ecuador. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach is carried out to evaluate the exceedance probability of several levels of peak ground acceleration PGA and spectral accelerations SA (T) for periods (T) of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1 and 2s. The resulting hazard maps for continental Ecuador are presented, together with the uniform hazard spectra of four province capital cities. Hazard disaggregation is carried out for target motions defined by the PGA values and SA (1s) expected for return periods of 475 and 2475 years, providing estimates for short-period and long-period controlling earthquakes.  相似文献   

11.
Seismotectonic zonation studies in the Tell Atlas of Algeria, a branch of the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, provide a valuable input for deterministic seismic hazard calculations. We delineate a number of seismogenic zones from causal relationships established between geological structures and earthquakes and compile a working seismic catalogue mainly from readily available sources. To this catalogue, for a most rational and best-justified hazard analysis, we add estimates of earthquake size translated from active faulting characteristics. We assess the regional seismic hazard using a deterministic procedure based on the computation of complete synthetic seismograms (up to 1 Hz) by the modal summation technique. As a result, we generate seismic hazard maps of maximum velocity, maximum displacement, and design ground acceleration that blend information from geology, historical seismicity and observational seismology, leading to better estimates of the earthquake hazard throughout northern Algeria. Our analysis and the resulting maps illustrate how different the estimate of seismic hazard is based primarily on combined geologic and seismological data with respect to the one for which only information from earthquake catalogues has been used.  相似文献   

12.
This study describes the methodology implemented to establish the ground-motion logic-tree for national probabilistic seismic hazard map of Turkey for shallow active crustal regions. The presented procedure provides quantitative information to guide the hazard experts while establishing the logic tree to capture the epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion characterization. It uses non-data-driven and data-driven testing methods to identify and rank candidate ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) under a specific ground-motion database. The candidate GMPEs are subjected to visual inspection and are classified into center, body and range (CBR) spectral estimates for a proper consideration of epistemic uncertainty. The GMPEs classified into CBR are then used in a suite of seismic hazard sensitivity analysis to establish the most suitable GMPE logic-tree whose spectral estimates are not biased by any one of the GMPEs in the logic-tree structure. The sensitivity analysis considers normalized spectral ordinates and is not manipulated by the spectral amplitudes. The proposed procedure is inherited from the relevant studies of the Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME; www.efehr.org:8080/jetspeed/portal/emme.psml) regional seismic hazard project. This paper also highlights the similarities and differences in ground-motion characterization between EMME and our approach.  相似文献   

13.
A study of the seismic hazard for the Northwestern Apennines, based on seismotectonic and seismicity data, is presented. Starting from a seismotectonic analysis, showing the complex structural evolution of the region, the seismic activity in the period 1000–1975 has been modeled by some seismic source zones justified by geostructural and seismological considerations. The recurrence statistical parameters and the attenuation laws have been determined for all these sources. With an appropriate analysis method, maps of seismic hazard for return periods of 50, 200, and 500 years were elaborated. Finally, a comparison with the map of maximum felt intensity and with hazard values calculated by a different approach is presented.  相似文献   

14.
Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region.  相似文献   

15.
K-means cluster analysis and seismicity partitioning for Pakistan   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
Pakistan and the western Himalaya is a region of high seismic activity located at the triple junction between the Arabian, Eurasian and Indian plates. Four devastating earthquakes have resulted in significant numbers of fatalities in Pakistan and the surrounding region in the past century (Quetta, 1935; Makran, 1945; Pattan, 1974 and the recent 2005 Kashmir earthquake). It is therefore necessary to develop an understanding of the spatial distribution of seismicity and the potential seismogenic sources across the region. This forms an important basis for the calculation of seismic hazard; a crucial input in seismic design codes needed to begin to effectively mitigate the high earthquake risk in Pakistan. The development of seismogenic source zones for seismic hazard analysis is driven by both geological and seismotectonic inputs. Despite the many developments in seismic hazard in recent decades, the manner in which seismotectonic information feeds the definition of the seismic source can, in many parts of the world including Pakistan and the surrounding regions, remain a subjective process driven primarily by expert judgment. Whilst much research is ongoing to map and characterise active faults in Pakistan, knowledge of the seismogenic properties of the active faults is still incomplete in much of the region. Consequently, seismicity, both historical and instrumental, remains a primary guide to the seismogenic sources of Pakistan. This study utilises a cluster analysis approach for the purposes of identifying spatial differences in seismicity, which can be utilised to form a basis for delineating seismogenic source regions. An effort is made to examine seismicity partitioning for Pakistan with respect to earthquake database, seismic cluster analysis and seismic partitions in a seismic hazard context. A magnitude homogenous earthquake catalogue has been compiled using various available earthquake data. The earthquake catalogue covers a time span from 1930 to 2007 and an area from 23.00° to 39.00°N and 59.00° to 80.00°E. A threshold magnitude of 5.2 is considered for K-means cluster analysis. The current study uses the traditional metrics of cluster quality, in addition to a seismic hazard contextual metric to attempt to constrain the preferred number of clusters found in the data. The spatial distribution of earthquakes from the catalogue was used to define the seismic clusters for Pakistan, which can be used further in the process of defining seismogenic sources and corresponding earthquake recurrence models for estimates of seismic hazard and risk in Pakistan. Consideration of the different approaches to cluster validation in a seismic hazard context suggests that Pakistan may be divided into K?=?19 seismic clusters, including some portions of the neighbouring countries of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and India.  相似文献   

16.
—?A new approach is proposed to the seismic hazard estimate based on documentary data concerning local history of seismic effects. The adopted methodology allows for the use of “poor” data, such as the macroseismic ones, within a formally coherent approach that permits overcoming a number of problems connected to the forcing of available information in the frame of “standard” methodologies calibrated on the use of instrumental data. The use of the proposed methodology allows full exploitation of all the available information (that for many towns in Italy covers several centuries) making possible a correct use of macroseismic data characterized by different levels of completeness and reliability. As an application of the proposed methodology, seismic hazard estimates are presented for two towns located in Northern Italy: Bologna and Carpi.  相似文献   

17.
In many countries such as Spain earthquake databases still mainly comprise macroseismic data from felt effects. The full exploit of this information is of basic importance for seismic risk assessment and emergency planning, given the strict link between macroseismic intensity and damage. A probabilistic procedure specifically developed to handle macroseismic data, mostly relying on site information and seismogenic-source free, has been applied to evaluate seismic hazard in SE-Spain (Alicante-Murcia region). Present seismicity is moderate-low with largest magnitudes slightly over Mw5.0. The historical record includes very destructive earthquakes, maximum EMS98 intensities reaching IX–X and X in the nineteenth century (e.g., Torrevieja 1829 earthquake). Very recently, two events in the area on 11 May 2011 (Mw4.5, Mw5.2) killed nine people, injured 300, and produced important damage in the city of Lorca. Regional hazard maps for the area together with specific hazard curves at selected localities are obtained. Results are compared with the maximum observed intensities in the period 1300–2012, and with the values in the seismic hazard map from the Spanish Building Code in force. In general, the maximum felt intensity values are closer to the hazard values calculated for 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years, using felt and expected intensity. The intensity-based probabilistic hazard maps obtained through the applied approach reduce the inherent smoothing of those based on standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approaches for the region, allowing identifying possible over- or sub-estimates of site hazard values, providing very valuable information for risk reduction strategies or for future updates of the building code hazard maps.  相似文献   

18.
本文选取华北地震区作为研究区域,尝试利用空间光滑活动模型进行地震危险性评估.首先对研究区域进行划分网格,依据地震构造和地震空间分布特征建立地震构造模型,确定构造区特征参数(b值、M0、Mu、断层方位角及M-L关系等).采用考虑了地震构造背景的椭圆光滑过程的地震活动参数模型,计算各网格点的地震发生率.并利用网格源的地震危险性概率评价方法,由不同输入地震目录通过综合加权得到该区域50年超越概率10％的加速度峰值区划结果.该方法充分体现了地震活动的空间非均一性,尤其适用于发震构造不甚清晰的中强地震可能造成的地震危险性,避免了常规潜在震源区的划分.且评价方法简单快捷,为地震区划以及重大工程地震安全性评价工作提供了新的技术方法.  相似文献   

19.
—A new methodology for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is described. The approach combines the best features of the "deductive" (Cornell, 1968) and "historic" (Veneziano et al., 1984) procedures. It can be called a "parametric-historic" procedure. The maximum regional magnitude mmax is of paramount importance in this approach and Part I of the authors’ work (Kijko and Graham, 1998) was dedicated to developing efficient statistical procedures that can be used for the evaluation of this parameter. In Part II the approach of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at a given site is described. The approach permits the utilization of incomplete earthquake catalogues. It is assumed that a typical catalogue contains two types of information historical macroseismic events that occurred over a period of a few hundred years and recent, instrumental data. The historical part of the catalogue contains only the strongest events, whereas the complete part can be divided into several subcatalogues, each assumed complete above a specified threshold of magnitude. The author’s approach also takes into account uncertainty in the determination of the earthquake magnitude. The technique has been developed specifically for the estimation of seismic hazard at individual sites, without the subjective judgment involved in the definition of seismic source zones, in which specific active faults have not been mapped and identified, and where the causes of seismicity are not well understood. As an example of the application of the new technique, the results of a typical hazard analysis for a hypothetical engineering structure located in the territory of South Africa are presented. It was assumed that the only reliable information in the assessment of the seismic hazard parameters in the vicinity of the selected site comes from a knowledge of past seismicity. The procedure was applied to seismic data that were divided into an incomplete part, containing only the largest events, and two complete parts, containing information obtained from instruments. The simulation experiments described in Part I of our study have shown that the Bayesian estimator K-S-B tends to perform very well, especially in the presence of inevitable deviations from the simple Gutenberg–Richter model. In the light of this fact value &gif1; = 6.66 - 0.44, which was obtained from the K-S-B technique, was regarded as the best choice. At an exceedance probability of 10х per annum, the median value of peak ground acceleration on rock at the site is 0.31g, and at an exceedance probability of 10ц per annum, the median peak ground acceleration at the site is 0.39g. The median value of the maximum possible acceleration at the site is 0.40g, which was calculated from attenuation formulae by assuming the occurrence of the strongest possible earthquake, e.g., with magnitude &gif1; = 6.66 at distance 10 km.  相似文献   

20.
— Seismic hazard analysis methods in mines are reviewed for the purpose of selecting the best technique. To achieve this goal, the most often-used hazard analysis procedure, which is based on the classical frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relation, as well as alternative procedures are investigated.¶Since the maximum regional seismic event magnitude m max is of paramount importance in seismic hazard analysis, this work provides a generic formula for the evaluation of this important parameter. The formula is capable of generating solutions in different forms, depending on the assumptions of the model of the magnitude distribution and/or the available information regarding past seismicity. It includes the cases (i) in which seismic event magnitudes are distributed according to the truncated frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relation, and (ii) in which no specific model of the magnitude distribution is assumed.¶Both synthetic, Monte-Carlo simulated seismic event catalogues, and actual data from the copper mine in Poland and gold mine in South Africa, are used to demonstrate the discussed hazard analysis techniques.¶Our studies show that the non-parametric technique, which is independent of the assumed model of the distribution of magnitude, provides an appropriate tool for seismic hazard assessment in mines where the magnitude distribution can be very complex.  相似文献   

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