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1.
In a previous paper (Makropoulos andBurton, 1983) the seismic risk of the circum-Pacific belt was examined using a whole process technique reduced to three representative parameters related to the physical release of strain energy, these are:M
1, the annual modal magnitude determined using the Gutenberg-Richter relationship;M
2, the magnitude equivalent to the total strain energy release rate per annum, andM
3, the upper bound magnitude equivalent to the maximum strain energy release in a region.The risk analysis is extended here using the part process statistical model of Gumbel's IIIrd asymptotic distribution of extreme values. The circum-Pacific is chosen being a complete earthquake data set, and the stability postulate on which asymptotic distributions of extremes are deduced to give similar results to those obtained from whole process or exact distributions of extremes is successfully checked. Additionally, when Gumbel III asymptotic distribution curve fitting is compared with Gumbel I using reduced chi-squared it is seen to be preferable in all cases and it also allows extensions to an upper-bounded range of magnitude occurrences. Examining the regional seismicity generates several seismic risk results, for example, the annual mode for all regions is greater thanm(1)=7.0, with the maximum being in the Japan, Kurile, Kamchatka region atm(1)=7.6. Overall, the most hazardous areas are situated in this northwestern region and also diagonally opposite in the southeastern circum-Pacific. Relationships are established between the Gumbel III parameters and quantitiesm
1(1),X
2 and , quantities notionally similar toM
1,M
2 andM
3 although is shown to be systematically larger thanM; thereby giving a physical link through strain energy release to seismic risk statistics. Inall regions of the circum-Pacific similar results are obtained forM
1,M
2 andM
3 and the notionally corresponding statistical quantitiesm
1(1),X
2 and , demonstrating that the relationships obtained are valid over a wide range of seismotectonic enviroments. 相似文献
2.
ＴｈｅｒｅｇｉｏｎａｌｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆｓｅｉｓｍｉｃａｃｔｉｖｉｔｙｉｎＣｈｉｎａＺｈｅｎ－ＬｉａｎｇＳＨＩ，ＪｉａｎＷＡＮＧａｎｄＸｉａｏ－ＤｏｎｇＺＨＡＮＧ（时振梁，王健，张晓东）（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃｓ，Ｓ... 相似文献
3.
This paper has introduced the method of self-similarity analysis of time series into the analysis and study of earthquake
sequence, and then researched its application in earthquake prediction. As parameter of earthquake time series, we can take
the cumulated sum of the numbers of equivalent earthquakesQ=ΣN*, the numbers of equivalent earthquakeN*, maximum magnitudeM
max, average magnitudeQ=ΣN*, and the difference ΔN* between the numbersN* in two adjacent time intervals. The given method may be applied to analysis of long-period seismic sequences in different
regions as well as to anlysis of seismic sequence in the aftershock region of strong earthquake. For making quantitative analysis
the coefficient of self-similarity of earthquake sequence in order of timeμs was introduced. The results of self-similarity analysis were obtained for the earthquake sequences in North China, West South
China, the Capital region of China, and for the East Yamashi region of Japan. They show that in period or half year to several
years beforeM⩾7.0 andM⩾6.0 earthquakes occurred in these regions separately, the self-similarity coefficientμs calculated by using the above-mentioned parameters had remarkably anamalous decrease variations. The duration time ofμs anomaly depends on the earthquake magnitude and may be different from different regions. Therefore, the self-similarity coefficient
in order of timeμs can be considered as a long-medium term precursory index.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 455–462, 1993. 相似文献
4.
To actually reflect the seismic temporal-spatial inhomogeneity of intra continental strong earthquakes of North China in seismic
hazard analysis, several seismological and geological characteristics have been selected and quantized to describe the seismicity
features in time and space of every magnitude interval with the thought of dividing the interesting magnitude range into several
intervals and using of spatial probability distribution function. A component analysis method with orthogonal transformation
is introduced to avoid the repeated use of the same element and the subjective effects in determining the annual earthquake
occurrence rates of earthquake. By passing synthetic fuzzy judgement on the nonintercorrelated new characteristics, the annual
occurrence rates of every magnitude interval of each potential source area are obtained associated with the adjustments of
earthquake reducing process after the occurrence ofM>7 quake. An intensity map of the Beijing-Tianjin-Zhangjiakou area is calculated as an example which shows a close coincidence
with the seismic temporal-spatial inhomogeneity of North China.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 496–504, 1991. 相似文献
5.
Any pair ofm
L
gz
,m
L
g
b,mmxz andmm x h in the eastern six provinces of China show good linear relation this makes it easy to convert from one scale to another.mm x h may replaceM
L (ECH) as the local earthquake magnitude scale for the eastern six provinces, yet retaining the level ofM
L (ECH). The scalemm x h is 0.36 magnitude units higher thanM
L (SC) for southern California. By comparingRm a x (Δ) withR
3 (Δ) of Yunnan, it is found that the γ-value ofMAX phase of about 1 section in Yunnan region is half as large as that in the eastern six provinces of China.
Observation indicates thatmm x h≈mb for magnitude 4–5. It follows therefore thatmb (ECH)≈mb (WUS). This is supported by the result that the attenuation coefficient, the γ-value in eastern China is the same as in western
United States. 相似文献
6.
We describe a fully automated seismic event detection and location system, providing for real-time estimates of the epicentral parameters of both local and distant earthquakes. The system uses 12 telemetered short-period stations, with a regional aperture of 350 km, as well as two 3-component broad-band stations. Detection and location of teleseismic events is achieved independently and concurrently on the short-period and long-period channels. The long-period data is then used to obtain an estimate of the seismic momentM
0 of the earthquake through the mantle magnitudeM
m, as introduced byOkal andTalandier (1989). In turn, this estimate ofM
0 is used to infer the expected tsunami amplitude at Papeete, within 15 minutes of the recording of Rayleigh waves. The performance of the method is discussed in terms of the accuracy of the epicentral parameters and seismic moment obtained in real time, as compared to the values later published by the reporting agencies. Our estimates are usually within 3 degrees of the reported epicenter, and the standard deviation on the seismic moment only 0.19 unit of magnitude for a population of 154 teleseismic events. 相似文献
7.
The relation between the gravity variation features and Ms=8.1 earthquake in Qinghai-Xizang monitoring area is analyzed preliminarily,by using spatial dynamic variation results of regional gravity field from absolute gravity and relative gravity observation in 1998 and 2000.The results show that:1)Ms\8.1 earthquake in Kulun mountain pass westem occurred in the gravity variation high gradient near gravity‘s high negative variation;2)The Main tectonic deformation and emnergy accumulation before MS=8.1 earthquake are distributed at south side of the epicenter;3)The range of gravity‘s high negative variation at east of the MS=8.1 earthquake epicenter relatively coincides with that rupture region according to field geology investigation;4)Gravity variation distribution in high negative value region is just consistent with the second shear strain‘s high value region of strain field obtained from GPS observation. 相似文献
8.
9.
The borehole strain meter at Wushi station recorded obvious anomaly before Jiashi M
s=6.8 earthquake occurred on February 24, 2003. Its features are as follows. (1) Anomaly types are complete. The trend anomaly,
short-term anomaly, short-imminent anomaly and exponential anomaly appeared 19 months, 56 days, 4 days, and more than 1 month
before the event, respectively; (2) Anomaly is large in magnitude. The maximal magnitude of strain anomaly is 1.7×10−5, which is rare in the past 20-year observation records at Wushi station; (3) Strain rate fluctuates sharply with obvious
alternation of tension and compression. According to the magnitude of strain anomaly, time of exponential anomaly appearance
and regional features of recorded anomaly, we could predict the magnitude, occurrence time and potential region to a certain
degree. 相似文献
10.
收集康定地震区及周边（99.6°~105.2°E,27.8°~33.0°N范围内）连续GPS观测站的资料求解站速度场,采用刚性-线弹性运动方程计算方法,拟合计算得到研究区域规格网格点（0.4°×0.4°）的速度值和主应变率值。基于该结果分析研究区内的运动特征和应变场变化情况,并讨论其与地震孕育发生的关系。分析结果表明,芦山7.0级地震发生前研究区呈现应变能量积累态势,而地震之后研究区呈应变能量释放调整态势,2014年康定地震的发生就是该区构造运动调整下的产物。 相似文献
11.
In this paper, the methods of pattern recognition and fuzzy cluster are applied to estimate comprehensive whether there would
be an earthquake which magnitude is commensurate with (N=M
0±0.3) or greatM>M
0) thanM
0 within 3 months using sequential data in 3 days immediately after a moderate or strong earthquake (M
0≥4.7) occurred, The result of retrospective test indicates that the comprehensive judgment effects by using these applied
mathematics methods are better than that of using every individual method obviously. TheV mark value of algorithm CORA-3 in pattern recognition is the highest among them. There are 44 known earthquake sequence data
(5 type- I and 39 type- II) used to learn and train, the results of internal coincidence test show that all 44 sequence samples
could be distinguished correctly. Extrapolation test by using other 4 known earthquake sequences (2 type- I and 2 type- II)
shows that all 4 extrapolation samples could be distinguished correctly also. In the process of study, these methods have
been applied to judge the post-earthquake tendency of 2 moderate earthquakes occurred recently, one is distinguished correctly
and the other wrong. The algorithm Hamming in pattern recognition and fuzzy cluster method have been applied to judge the
early post-earthquake tendency after a moderate or strong earthquake, too. TheV mark values of internal coincidence tests could get above 0.8 most cases of extrapolating are correct.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 15–21, 1993. 相似文献
12.
GUO Zeng-Jian 《地震学报(英文版)》2000,13(4):477-480
IntroductionIn the book Future CataS~ologr published in 1992, we proposed a viewpoiflt on using the"criterion of activity in quiescence" to predict big eathquake (MsZ7) (GUO, et al, 1992), and predicted in the book that in futore several years or in ten years a big earthquake (Ms27) will be possible to occur in the Zhongdian and nearby in Yunnan Province. In the 1994 nation-wide earthquake tendency consultation meeting we pointed out, once more, in the Zhongdian region of Yunnan Province… 相似文献
13.
Jiazheng Qin 《地震学报(英文版)》1992,5(3):563-578
In the light of the single scattering model of coda originating from local earthquakes, and based on the aftershock coda registered
respectively at the 4 short period stations installed near the foci shortly after theM7.6 Lancang andM7.2 Gengma earthquakes, this paper has tentatively calculated the rate of amplitude attenuation and theQ
c-value of the coda in the Lancang and Gengma areas using a newly-founded synthetic determination method. Result of the study
shows the rate of coda amplitude attenuation demonstrates remarkable regional differences respectively in the southern and
northern areas. The southern area presents a faster attenuation (Q
c=114), whereas the northern area shows a slower attenuation (Q
c=231). The paper also discusses the reasons causing such differences. Result of the study also suggests a fairly good linear
relation between the coda source factorA
o(f) and the seismic moment and the magnitude. Using the earthquake scaling law, the following formulas can be derived: lgM
0=lgA
0(f)+17.6,M
D=0.67lgA
0(f)+1.21 and logM
0=1.5M
D+15.79. In addition, the rates of amplitude attenuationβ
s andβ
m are respectively calculated using the single scattering and multiple scattering models, and the ratioβ
s/βm=1.20−1.50 is found for the results respectively from the two models. Finally, the mean free pathL of the S-wave scattering in the southern and northern areas are determined to be 54 km and 122 km respectively by the relations
which can distinguish between the inherentQ
i and scatteringQ
s, testify to this areas having lowQ-values correspond to stronger scatterings.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 71–82, 1992.
This study is partly supported by the Seismological Science Foundation of the State Seismological Bureau of China, and the
present English version of the paper is translated from its Chinese original by Wenyi Xia, Seismological Bureau of Yunnan
Province. 相似文献
14.
This paper aims to analyse the geoelectrical resistivityρ
s
data on the dipole electrode sounding, which were firstly accumulated from the earthquake prone region in China. The analyses
on the one order difference value of the geoelectrical resistivity indicated that, firstly, more than 4 percent of theρ
s
data reveals the precursors by 3 to 76 days ahead the earthquakes occurring, with the magnitude range of 4 ≤M ≤ 6. 4, in a region of 100 km around the station, and secondly, the results revealed that the seasonal variation ofρ
s
data were slight.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 211–219, 1992. 相似文献
15.
The various useful source-parameter relations between seismic moment and common use magnitude lg(M 0) andM s,M L,m b; between magnitudesMs andM L,M s andm b,M L andm b; and between magnitudeM s and lg(L) (fault length), lg (W) (fault width), lg(S) (fault area), lg(D) (average dislocation);M L and lg(f c) (corner frequency) have been derived from the scaling law which is based on an “average” two-dimensional faulting model of a rectangular fault. A set of source-parameters can be estimated from only one magnitude by using these relations. The average rupture velocity of the faultV r=2.65 km/s, the total time of ruptureT(s)=0.35L (km) and the average dislocation slip rateD=11.4 m/s are also obtained. There are four strong points to measure earthquake size with the seismic moment magnitudeM w.
- The seismic moment magnitude shows the strain and rupture size. It is the best scale for the measurement of earthquake size.
- It is a quantity of absolute mechanics, and has clear physical meaning. Any size of earthquake can be measured. There is no saturation. It can be used to quantify both shallow and deep earthquakes on the basis of the waves radiated.
- It can link up the previous magnitude scales.
- It is a uniform scale of measurement of earthquake size. It is suitable for statistics covering a broad range of magnitudes. So the seismic moment magnitude is a promising magnitude and worth popularization.
16.
基于云南省内及邻区2009—2020年GNSS观测数据解算结果,在各个测点时间序列和速度场的基础上,采用克里金插值方法估计区域应变率场;以连续基准站时间序列为约束,获取漾濞MS6.4地震近场区域的块体应变时间序列。分析发现:漾濞地震发生在前期最大剪应变高值区以及面应变高梯度带的张压转换区,发震的时间处于区域应变积累速率逐渐降低的过程之后。震中近场区域均以NW向断层的右旋走滑应变积累为主,且大多呈现持续增强趋势,与漾濞地震的发震断层走向及其破裂特征一致。震前震区东部块体出现了短期应变趋势转折及反向加速的异常现象,反映了应力-应变积累在接近临界破裂状态时的非线性调整。 相似文献
17.
E. M. Scordilis 《Journal of Seismology》2006,10(2):225-236
The existence of several magnitude scales used by seismological centers all over the world and the compilation of earthquake catalogs by many authors have rendered globally valid relations connecting magnitude scales a necessity. This would allow the creation of a homogeneous global earthquake catalog, a useful tool for earthquake research. Of special interest is the definition of global relations converting different magnitude scales to the most reliable and useful scale of magnitude, the moment magnitude, M
W. In order to accomplish this, a very large sample of data from international seismological sources (ISC, NEIC, HRVD, etc.) has been collected and processed. The magnitude scales tested against M
W are the surface wave magnitude, M
S, the body wave magnitude, m
b, and the local magnitude, M
L. The moment magnitudes adopted have been taken from the CMT solutions of HRVD and USGS. The data set used in this study contains 20,407 earthquakes, which occurred all over the world during the time period 1.1.1976–31.5.2003, for which moment magnitudes are available. It is shown that well-defined relations hold between M
W and m
b and M
S and that these relations can be reliably used for compiling homogeneous, with respect to magnitude, earthquake catalogs. 相似文献
18.
Starting with dislocation model, using the result of the fracture mechanics: the slip displacement at the crack tip is proportional
to the length of the crack and the applied ambient shear stressτ
0
2
, we consider the dislocation in the earthquake to be the slip displacement at the crack tip and have obtained the analysis
expresses of displacement and velocity pulse for the circular crack and have calculated the seismic wave energy radiated by
earthquake. The seismic wave energyE ∞M
0
τ
0
2
f(v)
r
, i. e.E is proportional to the seismic momentM
0 and the square of the ambient shear stressτ
0
2
and increases with the rupture velocityv
r
.
In frequency domain, integrating the square of source velocity spectrum derived from our the scaling law model, we have also
obtained the seismic wave energyE released by earthquake and earthquake radiated effficiencyη.E ∞M
0
τ
0
2
also. If takingτ
0 = 10.0 MPa, E=4.79M
0. This result is consistent with the estimate by Vassiliou and Kanamori (1982). Theη=5.26%. The distribution of the seismic wave energy is that most of the energy contains in the frequency range between the
first corner frequencyf
c1 and thirdf
c3, amount to 92.3% the energy in the rangef<f
c1 is about 3.85% and 3.85% whenf>f
c3. Thef
c3 is about 8Hz forM ⩾ 6, thus most of radiated energy is below 2Hz. This phenomenon had been verified by Vassiliou Kanamori.
Previous results show the energy radiated by earthquake to be strongly dependent on ambient shear stress.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 146–152, 1993.
This work was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Bonn, F. R. Germany. The support is grateful acknowledged.
The authors are also grateful to Professor Klussmann and Mr. Hasthoff for their lots of help. 相似文献
19.
Zuji Qiang Changgong Dian Lingzhi Li Min Xu Fengsha Ge Tao Liu Yong Zhao Manhong Guo 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》1999,42(3):313-324
Mechanism of satellitic thermo-infrared brightness temperature and temperature increaming is studied. Experiments are made
with a gas sample taken around the epicenter area. The gas ample is pmved to contain green house gases such as CH4, and CO2 which have increased by tens of thousands of times. In addition, lab research slso pmes that CH4, and CO2 can obtain energy under the action of transient electric field and release heat, thus reeulting in a temperature increase
of 2–6°C. Also a brief account of practices since 1990 is given; altogether 40 short-tenn and impending earthquake predictions
have been made, with 9 precise ones whose three main factors of an earthquake are clearly depicted, and 12 fairly good ones.
These predictions include 3 earthquakes ofM.⩾ 7, 4 ofM.⩾ 6.0 and the rest are mundM. 5.0. Yet there are earthquakes left out of prediction. Finally the evolutionwy processing characters of satellitic thermo-infrared
brightness temperature and temperature increase before the Lijiang earthquake on Feb. 3, 1996 and Tangshan earthquake on April
14, 1998 are introduced in detail. The conclusion makes a study on the regularities of connection among time, space and stress
when there appears the satellitic thermal-inlinred brightness tempera- and temperature increasing anomaly.
Project supported by the State 863 High-Tech Project (Grant No. 863-2-7-4-18) 相似文献
20.
We derive S-wave attenuation characteristics, earthquake source parameters and site amplification functions at seismic stations
used for earthquake early warning in the Irpinia–Basilicata region, using non-parametric spectral inversion of seismograms
from 49 local events with M
L = 1.5–3.1. We obtain relatively low Q values (Q
0 = 28 at a frequency of 1 Hz) in conjunction with a strong frequency-dependence (close to linear). The source spectra can
be satisfactorily modeled using the omega-square model, with stress drops ranging between 0.01–2 MPa, and in the narrow magnitude
range available for analysis, the source spectra seem to scale self-similarly. The local magnitude M
L shows a linear correlation with moment magnitude M
W, however with a systematic underestimation by about 0.5-magnitude units. The results obtained in this work provide important
insights into the ground-motion characteristics that are required for appropriate seismic hazard assessment and are of practical
relevance for a suite of applications, such as the calibration of ground-motion prediction equations or the correction for
site amplification in earthquake early warning and rapid calculation of shake-maps for seismic emergency management. 相似文献