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首先,我们利用现代非线性物理理论及震源理论建立了适合地震活动的逾渗模型。然后,我们利用这一模型,对辽宁地区１９７０年以来的地震活动进行了研究。通过对地震活动的逾渗相变过程中逾渗阈值附近的各种临界指数的计算,对破裂概率达到或超过逾渗阈值的子区域进行了讨论并对近期辽宁地区的地震活动趋势进行了探讨。 相似文献
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和比较逾渗模型对磁相变与岩石破裂过程的处理方法,深入探讨了逾渗模型处理岩石破裂过程的本质含义,指出逾渗模型处理的是联接性相变问题,它提供了临界点相变的一个简单图像和比较容易理解的途径。逾渗模型与临界点相变的经典模型之间的映像为研究许多现象提出了一种简便可行的方法。逾渗模型对岩石破裂问题的处理不仅仅是现象上的类比,也有其深刻的物理内容。在此基础上引入岩石破裂度ＭＲ的概念,进一步探讨逾渗模型用于岩石破 相似文献
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吴忠良 《地震地磁观测与研究》1993,14(3):14-18
近年来地震统计力学研究的进展已经使我们有可能以一种简洁的方式将一些非线性地震模型物理地联系起来,并从地震学角度阐明这些模型的意义和限度。本文结合逾渗模型、热力学弹性回跳模型及弹簧滑块模型,系统地评述了这方面研究的进展。 相似文献
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通过对青海省区域地震活动序列的分析，发现一定强度的地震活动序列存在着内在的、有序可数的“自然节律”。并从逾渗模型的角度对这一现象做了初步解释。认为：中强地震的自然节律可能在一定程度上体现了非平衡条件下地震活动的抗混性。 相似文献
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近震源破裂过程反演研究--Ⅱ.9.21中国台湾集集地震破裂过程的近场反演 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据非线性规划研究的最新成果所设计的一种全新的震源破裂过程的反演方法, 用近场地震波观测资料反演了1999年9月21日发生在中国台湾省集集Mw7.6地震震源破裂过程.为了使反演中设置的断层模型与集集地震实际破裂面尽可能一致, 以尽可能减小由于断层模型设置的不确定性对震源破裂过程反演结果的影响, 设立的断层模型为与集集地震造成的主要地表破裂尽可能拟合的弯曲面模型.反演结果显示: (1) 集集地震震源的破裂大体持续了32 s, 其中主要破裂发生在第6～27 s间, 破裂主要集中发生在断层北段向东拐弯处.(2) 震源破裂以逆冲为主, 平均滑动角为64.5°, 与USGS, Harvard及CWB(台湾中央气象局)的结果相当.标量地震矩为7.76×1020牛顿米, 稍大于USGS和Harvard反演的标量地震矩.(3) 集集地震震源的破裂存在清晰的成核过程, 成核过程经历6 s后, 地震矩释放明显加速.起始破裂从断层南段开始, 10 s后破裂主要集中在断层北段发生.最后将反演结果与震后GPS观测结果进行了对照分析, 并对反演结果的科学意义进行了讨论. 相似文献
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根据非线性规划研究的最新成果所设计的一种全新的震源破裂过程的反演方法, 用近场地震波观测资料反演了1999年9月21日发生在中国台湾省集集Mw7.6地震震源破裂过程. 为了使反演中设置的断层模型与集集地震实际破裂面尽可能一致, 以尽可能减小由于断层模型设置的不确定性对震源破裂过程反演结果的影响, 设立的断层模型为与集集地震造成的主要地表破裂尽可能拟合的弯曲面模型. 反演结果显示: (1) 集集地震震源的破裂大体持续了32 s, 其中主要破裂发生在第6~27 s间, 破裂主要集中发生在断层北段向东拐弯处. (2) 震源破裂以逆冲为主, 平均滑动角为64.5°, 与USGS, Harvard及CWB(台湾中央气象局)的结果相当. 标量地震矩为7.76×1020牛顿米, 稍大于USGS和Harvard反演的标量地震矩. (3) 集集地震震源的破裂存在清晰的成核过程, 成核过程经历6 s后, 地震矩释放明显加速. 起始破裂从断层南段开始, 10 s后破裂主要集中在断层北段发生. 最后将反演结果与震后GPS观测结果进行了对照分析, 并对反演结果的科学意义进行了讨论. 相似文献
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目前国内外常用的概率地震危险性分析方法中, 一般把未来可能发生的地震震源（潜在震源）简化为点源或者是线源. 但对于较大震级的地震，仍然采用点源或线源模型来描述潜在震源显然是不合理的. 为此，在概率地震危险性分析方法中本文提出了潜在地震破裂面源模型，并以1999年9月21日台湾集集7.6级地震的车笼埔断层为例，探讨了其在地震危险性分析中的应用方法. 结果表明:①采用潜在地震破裂面源模型是合理的，因为它可以模拟地震破裂面与地震动影响场的三维展布特征，尤其适用于较大震级地震的近场区域； ② 潜在地震破裂面源的大小、产状，对近震源场点的地震危险性分析和地震区划结果有明显的控制影响. 相似文献
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震级—破裂长度关系与断层破裂模型 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
现代工程地震的进展之一是对所论地区作概率的地震危险性分析。1968年,Cornell首先对地震危险性分析作系统的研究,提出了著名的“点源模型”。70年代,洪华生(A.H-S)等提出断层破裂模型。该模型假设,断层破裂长度仅由震级决定,场地烈度由场地到断层破裂区的最短距离决定。由于断层破裂模型的广泛使用,震级-破裂长度关系的研究已成为危险性分析工作的一部分。 相似文献
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The statistical mechanics of earthquakes adopts the concepts and methodology of statistical mechanics, especially the theory of critical phenomena, in studying the preparation, initiation, propagation and healing of earthquake rupture, which forms a new branch in the physics of seismic source in recent years. This article introduces to the fundamental concepts of the statistical mechanics of earthquakes. The introduction includes the seismic Hamiltonian, percolation model, earthquake rupture nucleation, and Burridge-Knopoff spring-block model. It is pointed out that some of the statistical mechanical models of earthquakes have a sound seismological basis. There is a smooth "transition" from the "classical" theory to the "modern" theory of seismic source. 相似文献
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本文通过扩散置限凝聚模型的物理学背景和地震学背景以及ＤＬＡ模型对一些地震现象的定性解释等几个方面，讨论了ＤＬＡ模型的地震学意义，并试图以此为基础，探讨这类普适的动力学生长模型应用于地震预测研究的潜力和困难。 相似文献
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IntroductionEarthquakepredictionisamainobjectiveintraditionalseismicitystUdy,whichistoattempttofindsomecriterionofprecursoryearthquakeactivitybycomparingdifferentpatternsofseismicityinhopesofpredictingoccurrenceofamajorshock.Theresultisoftendisappointing.Preearthquakeactivitiescandiffergreatlyforimpendingearthquake,althoughalltheruptureprocessesoflargeearthquakesareessentiallythesameasfarasweknowsofar.Asalreadydiscussedintheresultofresearchonseismicityevolution(Gu,Sun,1992),theself-enlargeme… 相似文献
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防震减灾事业的长期可持续发展取决于地震科技进步,而制定好地震科技发展规划是推动地震科技进步的重要保障。本文建议了地震科技发展战略制定应考虑的5个原则,提出当前和今后一段时期地震科技发展战略的构想,从11个方面提出了“十一五”地震科技项目建议,同时,对其中地震预报科学实验场的选择提出了原则建议,进而从科学意义与必要性、已具备的条件、科学目标、监测与研究内容和运行机制与模式等5个方面论述了祁连山大震机理与预报科学实验场建设的可行性。 相似文献
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The seismological model was developed initially from the fundamental relationship between earthquake ground motion properties and the seismic moment generated at the source of the earthquake. Following two decades of continuous seismological research in the United States, seismological models which realistically account for both the source and path effects on the seismic shear waves have been developed and their accuracy rigorously verified (particularly in the long and medium period ranges). An important finding from the seismological research by Atkinson and Boore and their co‐investigators is the similarity of the average frequency characteristics of seismic waves generated at the source between the seemingly very different seismic environments of Eastern and Western North America (ENA and WNA, respectively). A generic definition of the average source properties of earthquakes has therefore been postulated, referred to herein as the generic source model. Further, the generic ‘hard rock’ crustal model which is characteristic of ENA and the generic ‘rock’ crustal model characteristic of WNA have been developed to combine with the generic source model, hence enabling simulations to be made of the important path‐related modifications to ground motions arising from different types of crustal rock materials. It has been found that the anelastic contribution to whole path attenuation is consistent between the ENA and WNA models, for earthquake ground motions (response spectral velocities and displacements) in the near and medium fields, indicating that differences in the ENA and WNA motions arise principally from the other forms of path‐related modifications, namely the mid‐crust amplification and the combined effect of the upper‐crust amplification and attenuation, both of which are significant only for the generic WNA ‘rock’ earthquake ground motions. This paper aims to demonstrate the effective utilization of the latest seismological model, comprising the generic source and crustal models, to develop a response spectral attenuation model for direct engineering applications. The developed attenuation model also comprises a source factor and several crustal (wave‐path modification) component factors, and thus has also been termed herein the component attenuation model (CAM). Generic attenuation relationships in CAM, which embrace both ENA and WNA conditions, have been developed using stochastic simulations. The crustal classification of a region outside North America can be based upon regional seismological and geological information. CAM is particularly useful for areas where local strong motion data are lacking for satisfactory empirical modelling. In the companion paper entitled ‘response spectrum modelling for rock sites in low and moderate seismicity regions combining velocity, displacement and acceleration predictions’, the CAM procedure has been incorporated into a response spectrum model which can be used to effectively define the seismic hazard of bedrock sites in low and moderate seismicity regions. This paper and the companion paper constitute the basis of a long‐term objective of the authors, to develop and effectively utilize the seismological model for engineering applications worldwide. 相似文献
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震群发震机理研究是近年来地震学研究的热点之一,其中基于观测现象对不同发震机理模型的分析和讨论是研究焦点.本文以2015年河北滦县震群为研究对象,首先通过模板匹配方法检测震群活动期间目录遗漏地震事件,得到更为完整的地震目录.再通过波形互相关震相检测技术标定地震事件在记录台站的震相到时,依据标定的震相到时,利用双差定位方法对震群进行精定位,基于地震精定位结果分析震群的震中扩展特征.最后通过波形互相关系数和破裂面重合程度检测震群中是否存在重复地震活动.通过计算共检测到目录遗漏地震事件103个.地震精定位结果显示发震构造为北东向断层,震中扩展表现出迁移速率先快后慢的两阶段线性扩展特征.震群活动期间共检测到两组重复地震活动,其中第一组发生在震中扩展的第一阶段,第二组发生在震中扩展的第二阶段.在三种常见的震群发震机理模型——级联触发模型、断层慢滑动模型和流体侵入模型中,断层慢滑动模型能够解释我们观测到的重复地震活动和震中线性扩展现象,因此认为此次滦县震群活动可能伴随断层的慢滑动,断层慢滑动可能对滦县震群的触发和持续活动起到一定作用. 相似文献
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CUI-YING ZHOU YUAN-QING ZHU HONG-WEI WANG KAI-LI LIANG PING LI AI-XIANG GUO 《地震学报(英文版)》1999,12(2):232-237
parameters integrated predictionIn current earthquake prediction, seismological method is considered the first choice. According to rough statistics, there are over 100 seismological parameters used in earthquake prediction in China. That a great number of parameters could be chosen is more convenient, but also causes a lot of troubles at the same time. It is more difficult to decide which one is better among them. In the practical key problem and the 'Eighth Five-Year Plan' key problem on short-period earthquake prediction sponsored by China Seismological Bureau, most of the parameters have been evaluated on efficiency, but it is still not easy to decide which one can be given the priority and which one should be discarded, because the adopted data, the sample numbers and the evaluation criteria were not always consistent in these researches. Therefore, the first problem which the earthquake predictors are facing is how to select the best one from so many seismological parameters. In the past, most of the parameters were used in the seismic cases, but never used in the zone where no strong earthquakes occurred, in this way it is impossible to cast away 'false abnormality'. Furthermore, as the process of seismogeny is nonlinear and complicate, the non-uniqueness and uncertainty of the development process make the seismic precursors different in time, place and earthquake, which often causes false prediction when a single parameter is used. In order to solve the problem better, this paper attempts a new method comparison screening, to select seismological single parameter and to collect a comprehensive seismological parameter on this basis. The basic procedure may be summarized as follows: on the basis of reasonable normalization of various parameters, quantitative comparison screening of some basic seismological parameters by using the two sorts of samples from 'large-magnitude seismic zone' and 'no large-magnitude seismic zone' in North China is conducted, to obtain 'seismic abnormality' and 'aseismic normality' indexes, and then to synthesize these indexes with weighting method according to the strength of the earthquake information to obtain a integrated prediction index which is universal to predict the earthquakes in North China, and meanwhile develop a new seismological prediction method which is abbreviated as SQIP (seismological quantitative integrated prediction method). 相似文献
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应对巨大地震的应急流动观测系统 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
通过“十五”数字地震观测网络项目建设,目前。我国的地震观测系统和地震观测信号传输几乎完全依赖于公共通讯网络。但是,大地震常常严重破坏公共通讯系统,应对巨大地震的流动观测系统就提到迫切的日程。2007年,通过采用无线竞带接入技术,结合中国地震局数字地震观测网络技术,初步建成了应对巨大地震的应急流动观测系统,并在汶川地震现场观测初期发挥了重要作用。 相似文献
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中国地震局青年科技代表团 《国际地震动态》2000,(12):15-20
２０００年６月１３～２４日中国地震局青年科技代表团赴土耳其、希腊进行了地震工作考察,文章介绍了这次考察的概况,并根据考察其间了解的情况,较详细地介绍了土耳其伊兹米特地震和土耳其地震研究工作,希腊的地震研究和雅典中强地震;欧洲工程地震学与地震工程及地震学实验场;科林斯地震预报实验场,以及土耳其和希腊两国的防震减灾工作。 相似文献