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1.
A one‐dimensional hydrodynamic lake model (DYRESM‐WQ‐I) is employed to simulate ice cover and water temperatures over the period 1911–2014. The effects of climate changes (air temperature and wind speed) on ice cover (ice‐on, ice‐off, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) are modeled and compared for the three different morphometry lakes: Fish Lake, Lake Wingra, and Lake Mendota, located in Madison, Wisconsin, USA. It is found that the ice cover period has decreased due to later ice‐on dates and earlier ice‐off dates, and the annual maximum ice cover thickness has decreased for the three lakes during the last century. Based upon simulated perturbations of daily mean air temperatures across the range of ?10°C to +10°C of historical values, Fish Lake has the most occurrences of no ice cover and Lake Wingra still remains ice covered under extreme conditions (+10°C). Overall, shallower lakes with larger surface areas appear more resilient to ice cover changes caused by climate changes.  相似文献   

2.
Lakes are a prominent geographic feature in northern landscapes and play an important role in understanding regional climate systems. In order to better model changes within climate systems, it is important to study lake ice processes. Although the availability of records for lake ice through ground measurements has declined in recent years, the increased use of remote sensing provides an alternative to this. Using a preclassified snow and ice remote sensing product with a 500‐m resolution, based on images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS/MOD10A1), and the use of measured and reanalysis temperature data, this study evaluated lake ice phenology dates in connection to recent trends in temperature and 0 °C isotherms within Ontario and Manitoba between 2001 and 2014. Temperature trends indicated both regional warming and cooling, with significant cooling observed in Southern Ontario (p < .05) and significant warming in Southern Manitoba (p < .1) during the fall. Spatial analysis of the trends in the lake ice data showed significant clustering of significant trends in ice on dates (p < .01). When analysing the trends in ice phenology in connection to the trends in temperature, it was found that 70% of lakes experienced a change in the ice on date with the expected change in temperature and 85% of lakes for ice off date. When shifting ice on and ice off dates are investigated in relation to 0 °C isotherms, it was seen that 80% of ice on dates and 100% of ice off dates shifted in sync with the isotherm dates. This demonstrates that the ice phenology of lakes in Ontario and Manitoba, Canada, is responding to short‐term variability in temperature. The MODIS product could be used to investigate ice phenology on a large scale and contribute towards expanding existing records of ice phenology. Establishing long‐term ice records could be a valuable asset for other research ranging from water balance studies to the response of lake biota under changing climate.  相似文献   

3.
Lake ice supports a range of socio‐economic and cultural activities including transportation and winter recreational actives. The influence of weather patterns on ice‐cover dynamics of temperate lakes requires further understanding for determining how changes in ice composition will impact ice safety and the range of ecosystem services provided by seasonal ice cover. An investigation of lake ice formation and decay for three lakes in Central Ontario, Canada, took place over the course of two winters, 2015–2016 and 2016–2017, through the use of outdoor digital cameras, a Shallow Water Ice Profiler (upward‐looking sonar), and weekly field measurements. Temperature fluctuations across 0°C promoted substantial early season white ice growth, with lesser amounts of black ice forming later in the season. Ice thickening processes observed were mainly through meltwater, or midwinter rain, refreezing on the ice surface. Snow redistribution was limited, with frequent melt events limiting the duration of fresh snow on the ice, leading to a fairly uniform distribution of white ice across the lakes in 2015–2016 (standard deviations week to week ranging from 3 to 5 cm), but with slightly more variability in 2016–2017 when more snow accumulated over the season (5 to 11 cm). White ice dominated the end‐of‐season ice composition for both seasons representing more than 70% of the total ice thickness, which is a stark contrast to Arctic lake ice that is composed mainly of black ice. This research has provided the first detailed lake ice processes and conditions from medium‐sized north‐temperate lakes and provided important information on temperate region lake ice characteristics that will enhance the understanding of the response of temperate lake ice to climate and provide insight on potential changes to more northern ice regimes under continued climate warming.  相似文献   

4.
Thermokarst lakes cover > 20% of the landscape throughout much of the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) with shallow lakes freezing solid (grounded ice) and deeper lakes maintaining perennial liquid water (floating ice). Thus, lake depth relative to maximum ice thickness (1·5–2·0 m) represents an important threshold that impacts permafrost, aquatic habitat, and potentially geomorphic and hydrologic behaviour. We studied coupled hydrogeomorphic processes of 13 lakes representing a depth gradient across this threshold of maximum ice thickness by analysing remotely sensed, water quality, and climatic data over a 35‐year period. Shoreline erosion rates due to permafrost degradation ranged from < 0·2 m/year in very shallow lakes (0·4 m) up to 1·8 m/year in the deepest lakes (2·6 m). This pattern of thermokarst expansion masked detection of lake hydrologic change using remotely sensed imagery except for the shallowest lakes with stable shorelines. Changes in the surface area of these shallow lakes tracked interannual variation in precipitation minus evaporation (P ? EL) with periods of full and nearly dry basins. Shorter‐term (2004–2008) specific conductance data indicated a drying pattern across lakes of all depths consistent with the long‐term record for only shallow lakes. Our analysis suggests that grounded‐ice lakes are ice‐free on average 37 days longer than floating‐ice lakes resulting in a longer period of evaporative loss and more frequent negative P ? EL. These results suggest divergent hydrogeomorphic responses to a changing Arctic climate depending on the threshold created by water depth relative to maximum ice thickness in ACP lakes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
The formation of ice cover on lakes alters heat and energy transfer with the water column. The fraction of surface area covered by ice and the timing of ice-on and ice-off therefore affects hydrodynamics and the seasonal development of stratification and related ecosystem processes. Multi-year model simulations of temperate lake ecosystems that freeze partially or completely therefore require simulation of the formation and duration of ice cover. Here we present a multi-year hydrodynamic simulation of an alpine lake with complex morphology (Lower Lake Constance, LLC) using the three-dimensional (3D) model Aquatic Ecosystem Model (AEM3D) over a period of 9 years. LLC is subdivided into three basins (Gnadensee, Zeller See and Rheinsee) which differ in depth, morphological features, hydrodynamic conditions and ice cover phenology and thickness. Model results were validated with field observations and additional information on ice cover derived from a citizen science approach using information from social media. The model reproduced the occurrence of thin ice as well as its inter-annual variability and differentiated the frequency and extent of ice cover between the three sub-basins. It captured that full ice cover occurs almost each winter in Gnadensee, but only rarely in Zeller See and Rheinsee. The results indicate that the 3D model AEM3D is suitable for simulating long-term dynamics of thin ice cover in lakes with complex morphology and inter-annual changes in spatially heterogeneous ice cover.  相似文献   

6.
Permafrost degradation associated with the expansion of thermokarst lakes is commonly interrupted by catastrophic drainage. Subsequently, in tundra areas, permafrost aggradation in drained basins leads to uneven topography characterized by raised centres and wet, depressed margins. The genesis of such topography has been investigated in Old Crow Flats (OCF), a glaciolacustrine plain in the continuous permafrost of northern Yukon. The thermokarst lakes of OCF have a mean depth of only 1.5 m because excess ice is dominantly found only in the uppermost 10 m of the ground. Surface conditions were measured in three drained thermokarst lake basins, including relief, snow conditions, ground temperatures, near‐surface ground ice, and sediment stratigraphy. Four nearby lakes provided information on wave base, shore recession patterns, and bathymetry before drainage: the bottoms of these lakes were not raised in the centre. An elevation difference of up to 2 m was recorded between drained basin margins and centres but was not associated with variations in ice‐wedge density or segregated ice content. Hence basin topography was not controlled by differences in volumetric ground‐ice content between margins and centres. We propose that transport of fine sediment away from eroding lake margins during lake development is the primary mechanism for the genesis of depressed margins and raised centres in drained basins of OCF. Over time, the transport results in the deposition of more and finer sediment in the central parts of lakes, where the lake bottom has subsided below wave base, than at the shallow margins, where resuspension by wave action occurs frequently. This difference in sediment volume is revealed in the topography after drainage, when permafrost aggrades in the lake‐bottom sediment and underlying talik. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
基于2019—2020期间在盘锦市含章湖利用浮式观测平台开展湖冰原型观测试验,分析不同因素对湖冰变化造成的影响.结果表明:99 d冰期内湖冰的生消过程可概述为:湖泊封冻(3 d)—稳定生长(62 d)—冰厚稳定(7 d)—加速消融(24 d)—破碎分解(3d).生长期冰厚的平均增长速率为0.4 cm/d,最大冰厚为30.7 cm;不同深度(5～17 cm)冰温对气温变化的响应存在滞后性,滞后时间为70～158 min,冰温与气温的最大相关系数为0.52～0.89;降雨过程造成冰面反照率由0.22降至0.09,影响了冰内温度以及冰下40 cm以内的浅层水温,但14 mm的降雨量并未引起表面冰厚增加;降雪过程造成冰面反照率由0.25升至0.90,同时阻碍了 5 cm以内的浅层冰温对气温变化的响应,但风速长时间大于8 m/s时会导致冰面积雪被吹散,冰面重新裸露;消融期冰厚的衰减过程呈抛物线趋势,存在显著的加速过程,融化速率由0.3 cm/d逐渐增加到2.7 cm/d;湖冰生长期的冰底热通量均值为4.8 W/m~2;到消融期增加至8.1 W/m~2,为生长期的1.7倍;太阳辐射与湖冰边界侧向融化是导致湖冰加速融化的关键因素.本研究填补了国内湖冰冻融全过程实测资料的空缺,为湖冰热力学模型的改进提供了科学支撑.  相似文献   

8.
Based on the analysis of data of many-year actinometric observations, a considerable temporal (interannual, seasonal, synoptic, and diurnal) and spatial variability of the albedo of the snow-and-ice cover of a shallow lake is shown. The ranges of variations in the albedo of snow and ice for a wide spectrum of the state of surface and weather conditions are presented. The variability of the thickness and structure of snow-and-ice cover is analyzed for different periods in winter. The results of field experiments aimed to determine the degree of absorption of solar radiation by snow and ice are presented. The effective coefficients of absorption of solar radiation by snow and ice are determined. The comparison of the observed and calculated values of the under-ice radiation has shown that the determined coefficients adequately describe the absorption of solar radiation by snow-and-ice cover.  相似文献   

9.
Potential future changes in lake physical processes (e.g. stratification and freezing) can be assessed through exploring their sensitivity to climate change, and assessing the current vulnerability of different lake types to plausible changes in meteorological drivers. This study quantifies the impacts of climate change and sensitivity of lake physical processes within a large (5100 km2) Precambrian Shield catchment in south‐central Ontario. Historic regional relationships are established between climate drivers, lake morphology, and lake physical changes through generalized linear modelling (GLM), and are used to quantify likely changes in timing of ice phenology and lake stratification across 72 lakes under a range of future climate models and scenarios. In response to projections of increased temperature (ensemble mean of +3.3 °C), both earlier ice‐off and onset of summer stratification were projected, with later ice‐on and fall turnover compared to the baseline. Process sensitivity to climate change varied by lake type; shallower lakes with a smaller volume (less than 15 m deep and less than 0.05 km3) were more sensitive to processes associated with lake heating (stratification onset and ice‐off), and deeper lakes with a larger surface area (greater than 30 m deep and greater than 1000 ha) were more sensitive to processes associated with lake cooling (fall turnover and ice‐on). These results indicate that whereas small lakes are vulnerable to climate warming because of changes that occur in spring and summer, larger lakes are particularly sensitive during the fall. The findings suggest that lake morphology and associated sensitivity should be considered in the development of sustainable lake management strategies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
To better understand the linkage between lake area change, permafrost conditions and intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability in climate, we explored the temporal and spatial patterns of lake area changes for a 422 382‐ha study area within Yukon Flats, Alaska using Landsat images of 17 dates between 1984 and 2009. Only closed basin lakes were used in this study. Among the 3529 lakes greater than 1 ha, closed basin lakes accounted for 65% by number and 50% by area. A multiple linear regression model was built to quantify the temporal change in total lake area with consideration of its intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability. The results showed that 80.7% of lake area variability was attributed to intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability in local water balance and mean temperature since snowmelt (interpreted as a proxy for seasonal thaw depth). Another 14.3% was associated with long‐term change. Among 2280 lakes, 350 lakes shrank, and 103 lakes expanded. The lakes with similar change trends formed distinct clusters, so did the lakes with similar short term intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability. By analysing potential factors driving lake area changes including evaporation, precipitation, indicators for regional permafrost change, and flooding, we found that ice‐jam flooding events were the most likely explanation for the observed temporal pattern. In addition to changes in the frequency of ice jam flooding events, the observed changes of individual lakes may be influenced by local variability in permafrost distributions and/or degradation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Both the inflow and outflow of supra‐permafrost water to lakes play important roles in the hydrologic process of thermokarst lakes. The accompanying thermal effects on the adjacent permafrost are required for assessing their influences on the development of thermokarst lakes. For these purposes, the lake water level, temperature dynamics, and supra‐permafrost water flow of a lake were monitored on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau. In addition, the spatial and temporal variation of the active layer thickness and permafrost distribution around the lake were investigated by combining ground penetrating radar, electrical resistivity tomography, and borehole temperature monitoring. The results revealed that the yearly unfrozen supra‐permafrost water flow around the lake lasted approximately 5 months. The temperature and water level measurements during this period indicate that the lake water was recharged by relatively colder supra‐permafrost water from the north‐western lakeshore and was discharged through the eastern lakeshore. This process, accompanied by heat exchange with the underlying permafrost, might cause a directional difference of the active layer thickness and permafrost characteristics around the lake. Specifically, the active layer thickness variation was minimal, and the ice‐rich permafrost was found adjacent to the lakeshore along the recharge groundwater pathways, whereas a deeper active layer and ice‐poor permafrost were observed close to the lakeshore from which the warm lake water was discharged. This study suggests that the lateral flow of warm lake water can be a major driver for the rapid expansion of thermokarst lakes and provides clues for evaluating the relationships between the thermokarst expansion process and climate warming.  相似文献   

12.
Daily river inflow time series are highly valuable for water resources and water environment management of large lakes. However, the availability of continuous inflow data for large lakes is still relatively limited, especially for large lakes situated within humid plain regions with tens or even hundreds of tributaries. In this study, we choose the fifth largest freshwater Lake Chaohu in China as our study area to introduce a new approach to reconstruct historical daily inflows at ungauged subcatchments of large lakes. This approach makes use of water level, lake surface rainfall, evaporation from the lake, and catchment rainfall observations. Rainfall–runoff relationship at a reference catchment was analysed to select rainfall input and estimate run‐off coefficient firstly, and the run‐off coefficient was then transferred to ungauged subcatchments to initially estimate daily inflows. Run‐off coefficient was scaled to adjust daily inflows at ungauged subcatchments according to water balance of the lake. This approach was evaluated using sparsely measured inflows at eight subcatchments of Lake Chaohu and compared with the commonly used drainage area ratio method. Results suggest that the inflow time series reconstructed from this approach consistent well to corresponding observations, with mean R2 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.69 and 0.6, respectively. This approach outperforms drainage area ratio method in terms of mean R2 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values. Accuracy of this approach holds well when the number of water‐level station being used decreased from four to one.  相似文献   

13.
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a physically‐based hydrologic model developed for agricultural watersheds, which has been infrequently validated for forested watersheds, particularly those with deep overwinter snow accumulation and abundant lakes and wetlands. The goal of this study was to determine the applicability of SWAT for modelling streamflow in two watersheds of the Ontonagon River basin of northern Michigan which differ in proportion of wetland and lake area. The forest‐dominated East Branch watershed contains 17% wetland and lake area, whereas the wetland/lake‐dominated Middle Branch watershed contains 26% wetland and lake area. The specific objectives were to: (1) calibrate and validate SWAT models for the East Branch and Middle Branch watersheds to simulate monthly stream flow, and (2) compare the effects of wetland and lake abundance on the magnitude and timing of streamflow. Model calibration and validation was satisfactory, as determined by deviation of discharge D and Nash and Sutcliffe coefficient values E that compared simulated monthly mean discharge versus measured monthly mean discharge. Streamflow simulation discrepancies occurred during summer and fall months and dry years. Several snow melting parameters were found to be critical for the SWAT simulation: TIMP (snow temperature lag factor) and SMFMX and SMFMN (melting factors). Snow melting parameters were not transferable between adjacent watersheds. Differences in seasonal pattern of long‐term monthly streamflow were found, with the forest‐dominated watershed having a higher peak flow during April but a lower flow during the remainder of the year in comparison to the wetland and lake‐dominated watershed. The results suggested that a greater proportion of wetland and lake area increases the capacity of a watershed to impound surface runoff and to delay storm and snow melting events. Representation of wetlands and lakes in a watershed model is required to simulate monthly stream flow in a wetland/lake‐dominated watershed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
We investigate the problem of balancing model complexity and input data requirements in snow hydrology. For this purpose, we analyze the performance of two models of different complexity in estimating variables of interest in snow hydrology applications. These are snow depth, bulk snow density, snow water equivalent and snowmelt run‐off. We quantify the differences between data and model prediction using 18 years of measurements from an experimental site in the French Alps (Col de Porte, 1325 m AMSL). The models involved in this comparison are a one‐layer temperature‐index model (HyS) and a multilayer model (Crocus). Results show that the expected loss in performance in the one‐layer temperature‐index model with respect to the multilayer model is low when considering snow depth, snow water equivalent and bulk snow density. As for run‐off, the comparison returns less clear indications for identification of a balance. In particular, differences between the models' prediction and data with an hourly resolution are higher when considering the Crocus model than the HyS model. However, Crocus is better at reproducing sub‐daily cycles in this variable. In terms of daily run‐off, the multilayer physically based model seems to be a better choice, while results in terms of cumulative run‐off are comparable. The better reproduction of daily and sub‐daily variability of run‐off suggests that use of the multilayer model may be preferable for this purpose. Variation in performance is discussed as a function of both the calibration solution chosen and the time of year. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
We apply the process‐based, distributed TOPKAPI‐ETH glacio‐hydrological model to a glacierized catchment (19% glacierized) in the semiarid Andes of central Chile. The semiarid Andes provides vital freshwater resources to valleys in Chile and Argentina, but only few glacio‐hydrological modelling studies have been conducted, and its dominant hydrological processes remain poorly understood. The catchment contains two debris‐free glaciers reaching down to 3900 m asl (Bello and Yeso glaciers) and one debris‐covered avalanche‐fed glacier reaching to 3200 m asl (Piramide Glacier). Our main objective is to compare the mass balance and runoff contributions of both glacier types under current climatic conditions. We use a unique dataset of field measurements collected over two ablation seasons combined with the distributed TOPKAPI‐ETH model that includes physically oriented parameterizations of snow and ice ablation, gravitational distribution of snow, snow albedo evolution and the ablation of debris‐covered ice. Model outputs indicate that while the mass balance of Bello and Yeso glaciers is mostly explained by temperature gradients, the Piramide Glacier mass balance is governed by debris thickness and avalanches and has a clear non‐linear profile with elevation as a result. Despite the thermal insulation effect of the debris cover, the mass balance and contribution to runoff from debris‐free and debris‐covered glaciers are similar in magnitude, mainly because of elevation differences. However, runoff contributions are distinct in time and seasonality with ice melt starting approximately four weeks earlier from the debris‐covered glacier, what is of relevance for water resources management. At the catchment scale, snowmelt is the dominant contributor to runoff during both years. However, during the driest year of our simulations, ice melt contributes 42 ± 8% and 67 ± 6% of the annual and summer runoff, respectively. Sensitivity analyses show that runoff is most sensitive to temperature and precipitation gradients, melt factors and debris cover thickness. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
In cold Arctic snowpacks, meltwater retention is a significant factor controlling the timing and magnitude of runoff. Meltwater percolates vertically through the snowpack until it reaches an impermeable horizon, whereupon a saturated zone is established. If the underlying media is below the freezing point, accretive ice formation takes place. This process has previously been crudely parameterized or modelled numerically. Such ice is called either superimposed ice on glaciers or basal ice on bare land. Using theory derived from sea‐ice formation, an analytical solution to basal ice growth is proposed. Results are compared against growth rates derived from numerical modelling. In addition, model results are compared to field observations of ice temperatures. The analytical solution is further extended to account for the temperature gradient inside the underlying media and the variable thermal properties of the underlying media. In the analysis, observations and references have predominantly relied on knowledge from glaciers. However, the process of accretive ice growth is equally important in seasonal snow packs with a cold snow‐ground interface and on Arctic sea ice where the ice‐snow interface is well below freezing point. The simplification of this accretive ice growth problem makes the solution attractive for incorporation in large‐scale cryospheric models. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
Large river floods are a key water source for many lakes in fluvial periglacial settings. Where permeable sediments occur, the distribution of permafrost may play an important role in the routing of floodwaters across a floodplain. This relationship is explored for lakes in the discontinuous permafrost of Yukon Flats, interior Alaska, using an analysis that integrates satellite‐derived gradients in water surface elevation, knowledge of hydrogeology, and hydrologic modelling. We observed gradients in water surface elevation between neighbouring lakes ranging from 0.001 to 0.004. These high gradients, despite a ubiquitous layer of continuous shallow gravel across the flats, are consistent with limited groundwater flow across lake basins resulting from the presence of permafrost. Permafrost impedes the propagation of floodwaters in the shallow subsurface and constrains transmission to ‘fill‐and‐spill’ over topographic depressions (surface sills), as we observed for the Twelvemile‐Buddy Lake pair following a May 2013 ice‐jam flood on the Yukon River. Model results indicate that permafrost table deepening of 1–11 m in gravel, depending on watershed geometry and subsurface properties, could shift important routing of floodwater to lakes from overland flow (fill‐and‐spill) to shallow groundwater flow (‘fill‐and‐seep’). Such a shift is possible in the next several hundred years of ground surface warming and may bring about more synchronous water level changes between neighbouring lakes following large flood events. This relationship offers a potentially useful tool, well suited to remote sensing, for identifying long‐term changes in shallow groundwater flow resulting from thawing of permafrost. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Rock debris on the surface of ablating glaciers is not static, and is often transported across the ice surface as relief evolves during melt. This supraglacial debris transport has a strong influence on the spatial distribution of melt, and is implicated in the formation of hummocky glacial topography in deglaciated terrain. Furthermore, as ice‐dammed lakes and ice‐cored slopes become increasingly common in deglaciating watersheds, there is rising concern about hazards to humans and infrastructure posed by mass‐wasting of ice‐cored debris. The existing quantitative framework for describing these debris transport processes is limited, making it difficult to account for transport in mass balance, hazard assessment, and landscape development models. This paper develops a theoretical framework for assessing slope stability and gravitational mass transport in a debris‐covered ice setting. Excess water pressure at the interface between ablating ice and lowering debris is computed by combining Darcy's law with a meltwater balance. A limit‐equilibrium slope stability analysis is then applied to hypothetical debris layers with end‐member moisture conditions derived from a downslope meltwater balance that includes production and seepage. The resulting model system constrains maximum stable slope angles and lengths that vary with debris texture, thickness, and the rate of meltwater production. Model predictions are compared with field observations and with digital elevation model (DEM)‐derived terrain metrics from two modern debris‐covered glaciers on Mount Rainier, USA. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Glacier and permafrost hazards such as glacial‐lake outburst floods and rock–ice avalanches cause significant socio‐economic damages worldwide, and these processes may increase in frequency and magnitude if the atmospheric temperature rises. In the extratropical Andes nearly 200 human deaths were linked to these processes during the twentieth century. We analysed bibliographical sources and satellite images to document the glacier and permafrost dynamics that have caused socio‐economic damages in this region in historic time (including glacial lake outburst floods, ice and rock–ice avalanches and lahars) to unravel their causes and geomorphological impacts. In the extratropical Andes, at least 15 ice‐dammed lakes and 16 moraine‐dammed lakes have failed since the eighteenth century, causing dozens of floods. Some floods rank amongst the largest events ever recorded (5000 × 106 m3 and 229 × 106 m3, respectively). Outburst flood frequency has increased in the last three decades, partially as a consequence of long‐term (decades to centuries) climatic changes, glaciers shrinkage, and lake growth. Short‐term (days to weeks) meteorological conditions (i.e. intense and/or prolonged rainfall and high temperature that increased meltwater production) have also triggered outburst floods and mass movements. Enormous mass failures of glaciers and permafrost (> 10 × 106 m3) have impacted lakes, glaciers, and snow‐covered valleys, initiating chain reactions that have ultimately resulted in lake tsunamis and far‐reaching (> 50 km) flows. The eruption of ice‐covered volcanoes has also caused dozens of damaging lahars with volumes up to 45 × 106 m3. Despite the importance of these events, basic information about their occurrence (e.g. date, causes, and geomorphological impact), which is well established in other mountain ranges, is absent in the extratropical Andes. A better knowledge of the processes involved can help to forecast and mitigate these events. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
The recent rapid expansion of inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are a good indicator of the consequences of climate change. Quantifying the hydrological cycle of the lake basin is fundamentally important to understand the causes of lake growth. However, the hydrological processes of the TP interior are very complex and difficult to investigate because of the lack of observations. This is especially true for estimating the lake changes when run‐off inflows are affected by small lakes located in the flow routes within drainage areas. We used an integrated hydrological model, in combination with glacier melt and lake retention models, to analyse the run‐off inflows to Lake Siling Co, the largest endorheic lake in Tibet. It includes four subdrainage basins: Zhajiazangbu, Zhagenzangbu, Alizangbu, and Boquzangbu. Lake Siling Co was characterized by considerable increases during warm season from 1981 to 2012, due to the increased run‐off from Zhajiazangbu accounting for about 51–62% of the total run‐off inflows. Moreover, the dramatic increases exhibited during cold seasons were related to the increased retention water released from the small lakes within Zhagenzangbu and Alizangbu. Of the studied subdrainage basins, Boquzangbu contributed the least during both warm and cold seasons. On average, the annual amount of evaporation from lakes within the drainage area was about 2 times greater than that of glacier melt run‐off. Our results suggest that the retention effects of lakes on river inflows should receive more attention, because understanding these effects is potentially crucial to improved understanding of lake variations in the TP.  相似文献   

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