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1.
Poverty, vulnerability and the impact of flooding
in the Limpopo Province, South Africa 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The article evaluates household vulnerability after the 2000 flood in two poor communities of the Limpopo Province, South
Africa. The study analyses the forms of vulnerability which disasters such as floods present. Using data gathered from a survey
of households, the study presents the impacts, coping and adapting strategies of households after the 2000 flood. The article
argues that beyond the concern over socio-economic circumstances as the major determinant of household vulnerability, the
management of the disaster can serve to perpetuate vulnerability. 相似文献
2.
Thomas Wilson Carol Stewart Jim Cole David Johnston Shane Cronin 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2010,61(4):675-688
Agriculture is critically dependent on continuity of water quality and quantity. It is well-established that even small quantities
of volcanic ash can disrupt municipal water supplies, with known impacts to quality including: acidification, increases in
turbidity and ionic concentrations. In addition, delivery systems may be blocked or damaged by hard and abrasive suspended
ash and related ash-cleanup operations place extra stress on water reserves. The aim of this study was to characterise the
key areas of vulnerability of farm water supplies to volcanic ashfall, and to identify management recommendations to reduce
these. From literature review and case studies of farms impacted by the 1991 Pinatubo (Philippines) and 1991 Hudson (Chile)
eruptions, key issues were: sedimentation of irrigation ditches and drinking water ponds, turbidity induced abrasion of sprinkler
nozzles and water pumps, and damage to electric pumps (by ash on air-intakes). Building on this, we characterised the water-use
regimes and water supply system vulnerability of eight case-study farms from across the North Island, New Zealand. From this,
we propose an index system to evaluate the vulnerability of farm water supply systems. The key contributors to the vulnerability
index include: water source, storage capacity, reliance on electricity, independence/interconnectedness of system elements,
volume of water use and other load factors. These allow identification of key strategies for mitigating water supply vulnerability
during prevention, preparation, response and recovery phases of a volcanic eruption. 相似文献
3.
Flood disasters and its consequent damages are on the rise globally. Pakistan has been experiencing an increase in flood frequency and severity along with resultant damages in the past. In addition to the regular practices of loss and damage estimation, current focus is on risk assessment of hazard-prone communities. Risk measurement is complex as scholars engaged in disaster science and management use different quantitative models with diverse interpretations. This study tries to provide clarity in conceptualizing disaster risk and proposes a risk assessment methodology with constituent components such as hazard, vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity) and coping/adaptive capacity. Three communities from different urban centers in Pakistan have been selected based on high flood frequency and intensity. A primary survey was conducted in selected urban communities to capture data on a number of variables relating to flood hazard, vulnerability and capacity to compute flood risk index. Households were categorized into different risk levels, such as can manage risk, can survive and cope, and cannot cope. It was found that risk levels varied significantly across the households of the three communities. Metropolitan city was found to be highly vulnerable as compared to smaller cities due to weak capacity. Households living in medium town had devised coping mechanisms to manage risk. The proposed methodology is tested and found operational for risk assessment of flood-prone areas and communities irrespective of locations and countries. 相似文献
4.
In this paper, we present an approach to modelling multicriteria flood vulnerability which integrates the economic, social
and ecological dimension of risk and coping capacity. We start with an existing multicriteria risk mapping approach. The term
risk is used here in a way that could be called a starting point view, looking at vulnerability without considering coping capacities. We extend this approach by a multicriteria modelling of coping capacities towards an end point view of vulnerability. In doing so, we explore a way to differentiate coping capacity from flood risk in each of the dimensions
of vulnerability. The approach is tested in an urban case study, the city of Leipzig, Germany. Our results show that it is
possible to map multicriteria risks as well as coping capacities and relate them in a simple way. However, a detailed calculation
of end point vulnerability would require more detailed knowledge on the causal relationships between risk and coping capacity criteria
and their relative importance. 相似文献
5.
Deng-Hua Yan Jing Feng Chuan-Zhe Li Tian-Ling Qin Bai-Sha Weng Xin Jin 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(1):577-592
This paper focused on the development of a framework for collective water resources management in China to meet the change of drought and flood. Based on the observational data of drought and flood from 1950 to 2009 and the precipitation from 1961 to 2010, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method, the evolutionary characteristic of drought and flood was analyzed. The results showed that drought and flood occurred frequently, simultaneous occurrences of drought and flood and the rapid shift between the two were increasing. The framework for collective strategies responding to drought and flood under this ever-changing environment was presented. A series of potential mitigation, prevention, and adaptation strategies were discussed. These included both planning and implementation side strategies. In regard to planning, the strategies for dealing with drought and flood should be shifted from crisis management to collective management, unifying normal and emergency management. Combination risk zoning of drought and flood should be conducted and collective emergency planning should be formulated. Moreover, the regulation capability of water conservancy projects group should be optimized to the highest possible level. In regard to implementation, based on the water resources collective management, rational water allocation for both normal and extreme value processes should be implemented. The water conservancy project groups for the extreme value process should work together, and the flood limit water level of reservoirs should be controlled dynamically. 相似文献
6.
An agent-based model for risk-based flood incident management 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Effective flood incident management (FIM) requires successful operation of complex, interacting human and technological systems.
A dynamic agent-based model of FIM processes has been developed to provide new insights which can be used for policy analysis
and other practical applications. The model integrates remotely sensed information on topography, buildings and road networks
with empirical survey data to fit characteristics of specific communities. The multiagent simulation has been coupled with
a hydrodynamic model to estimate the vulnerability of individuals to flooding under different storm surge conditions, defence
breach scenarios, flood warning times and evacuation strategies. A case study in the coastal town of Towyn in the United Kingdom
has demonstrated the capacity of the model to analyse the risks of flooding to people, support flood emergency planning and
appraise the benefits of flood incident management measures. 相似文献
7.
Recent developments in the vulnerability literature have contested the use of technical solutions as the sole adaptive strategies
to reduce natural hazard impact; this literature emphasizes the need to attend to the wider everyday risks to which people
are exposed and that aggravate hazard vulnerability. Using a case study of two flood-prone communities in Puerto Rico, this
article supports and enhances that literature by placing floods within a wider context of other risks and determining how
everyday risks influence people’s perceptions of and capacity to adapt to floods. Participatory methods are used to elicit
the everyday risks that concern community members. The analysis reveals that participants perceive floods as one of their
risks, but they see them as neither the most important nor most severe risk in their lives. Instead, they find other concerns—health
conditions, family well-being, economic factors, and land tenure—more pressing. These competing risks limit adaptive capacity
and increase vulnerability to natural hazards. The results suggest that addressing these multiple risks, mainstreaming flood
management and adaptation into the wider context of people’s general well being, and increasing risk perception will strengthen
adaptive capacity to present and future floods. 相似文献
8.
洪水资源利用有助于缓解北方地区的水资源紧缺形势,风险适度性作为洪水资源利用三大适度性之一,用于指导洪水资源的合理开发与安全利用。在水库汛限水位调整中,提出采用不同频率设计洪水进行不同汛限水位条件下的洪水调节计算,并结合水库的经济与生态供水目标进行长系列用水调度模拟和供水效益分析,综合确定风险适度性的方法。对密云水库的计算分析表明,主汛期汛限水位从原设计的147.00 m安全抬高至目前的152.00 m是可靠的,其风险阈值上限为153.20 m;后汛期汛限水位可从目前的154.00 m安全抬高至155.40 m。两种情况下水库供水保证率可以分别提高0.30%和0.01%,且大坝和下游防护区的防洪风险率分别为0.01%和1%,与原设计一致,满足洪水资源安全利用的风险适度性要求。 相似文献
9.
The combination of climate change and urbanization is worsening urban flooding problems. Estimating the amount of rainfall that a city can tolerate without flooding is a fundamental task that is difficult to perform, although large amounts of resources are invested in urban flood control. The purpose of this study is to determine the tolerance threshold for stormwater in a city. Based on hydrometeorological characteristics and existing flood control facilities, the urban adaptive water capacity is analyzed to determine the critical rainfall loading. Different critical levels are defined. The low critical point represents the beginning of the water accumulation, while the intermediate and high critical points are defined as flooding with heights of 300 and 600 cm, respectively, in low-lying areas. This study adopts a simple conceptual method to illustrate the critical levels instead of applying complex hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, which require high-resolution spatial data. Three cities and one township in Taiwan are used as urban case studies and to verify the conceptual method. As the capital, Taipei City utilizes the highest flood control engineering technology of our case studies; it is also the site in which the lowest rainfall thresholds cause the accumulation of water to reach the intermediate and high critical points because its small ‘internal water areas’ increase the height of floods rapidly. Conversely, Taichung City has a large internal water area that can disperse accumulating waters without increasing flood height. The estimations of urban storm tolerance thresholds increase the understanding of the limitations of water protection facilities. These estimations may be combined with rainfall forecasts to increase early warning functions and provide a reference point for subsequent planning related to urban flood adaptation strategies. 相似文献
10.
B. B. Cruz L. A. Manfré D.S. Ricci D. Brunoro L. Appolinario Jr. J. A. Quintanilha 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(12):441
Water resources availability is increasingly constrained, considering the quality and quantity available for use. There is an urgent need of recovering this availability, focusing on the planning and management process of water supply systems. One of the main threats to water resources is related to erosion effects, namely widespread pollution load and the silting of watercourses and reservoirs useful life reduction. The objective of this study was to evaluate water supply systems environmental fragility within the Paulista Macro Metropolis area and to use the results to develop environmental zone classes to orient territorial planning. The study was conducted in seven superficial water supply systems of the aforementioned region. Environmental fragility evaluation was focused on four environmental variables that represent natural vulnerability to erosion, and 2015 land cover map to delineate human influence on erosive processes. Results indicate that Tietê River water supply systems, namely Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiaí (PCJ) and Itupararanga systems, can be considered the most fragile water supply systems in the study area. The environmental fragility map was used to derive the environmental zoning map, including conservation and priority areas, suitable regions for agriculture expansion, and areas with high needs for restoration efforts. In addition, environmental fragility framework herein can be viewed as a model with high replication potential for regional planning and management in that land cover can be manipulated to minimize environment natural vulnerability, guiding territorial occupation toward a more sustainable landscape design, which subsidizes water resources multiple uses. 相似文献
11.
利用社会经济统计数据和水文气象资料,探讨城市化背景下北京城市洪涝特征、形成机制及影响因素。近50年来城市内涝逐渐成为北京洪涝灾害的主要类型,随着城市化迅猛发展,城市内涝积水点数量在时间上表现为显著增加趋势,在空间上呈现出由内环逐步向外环扩张趋势,与城市化发展空间格局关系密切。从水循环的角度分析城市洪涝形成机制,指出区域气候变化和城市化发展改变了城市降水格局,汛期降水量和极端降水事件呈现下降趋势,但城区短历时强降水事件呈现增加态势;城市化发展改变了区域下垫面条件、城市流域产汇流特性和城市排水格局,进而影响了区域水循环过程和水量分配,在一定程度上增加了城市洪涝灾害风险;同时城市基础设施建设水平不足、排水排涝标准偏低、应急管理能力不足等因素,导致城市洪涝发生风险增加,降低了城市洪涝综合应对能力。 相似文献
12.
Fabio Zagonari 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(2):1101-1133
In this paper, I applied statistical, econometric, and mathematical methodologies to evaluate the conditions required for implementing a publicly supported trans-boundary flood risk management plan in accordance with the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EU). Although this paper adopts a focus on the methodology rather than on solving a specific problem, the Scheldt estuary is used to provide an illustrative case study of this approach. I showed that, apart from some expected minor differences, the Belgians and the Dutch can be considered a relatively homogeneous population. Moreover, I estimated the main determinants of both perceived flood risk (PFR) and willingness to pay (WTP) for a compensation fund by using a linear model and an ordered probit model (based on a double-bounded dichotomous-choice approach), respectively. Some policies appear to be potentially effective: a campaign to inform the general public about evacuation and trauma management could increase WTP by 19 and 21 %, respectively; an information campaign focused on young women could reduce PFR; and a campaign to inform the general public about flood strategies and the need to disregard flood events in the press could reduce PFR by 56 and 54 %, respectively. Finally, I showed that, apart from some expected differences between the values at risk in Belgium and the Netherlands, both individual rationality and overall feasibility conditions are met. Thus, if information campaigns and other measures are designed to account for differences between the Belgians and the Dutch, a publicly supported trans-boundary flood risk management plan can be successfully implemented. 相似文献
13.
E. van Slobbe H. J. de Vriend S. Aarninkhof K. Lulofs M. de Vries P. Dircke 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(1):947-966
Low-lying, densely populated coastal areas worldwide are under threat, requiring coastal managers to develop new strategies to cope with land subsidence, sea-level rise and the increasing risk of storm-surge-induced floods. Traditional engineering approaches optimizing for safety are often suboptimal with respect to other functions and are neither resilient nor sustainable. Densely populated deltas in particular need more resilient solutions that are robust, sustainable, adaptable, multifunctional and yet economically feasible. Innovative concepts such as ??Building with Nature?? provide a basis for coastal protection strategies that are able to follow gradual changes in climate and other environmental conditions, while maintaining flood safety, ecological values and socio-economic functions. This paper presents a conceptual framework for Building with Nature that is used to evaluate coastal protection strategies, based on a case study of the Holland coast in the Netherlands. The added value and the limitations of these strategies are discussed. 相似文献
14.
The purpose of this research is to explore indigenous coping strategies and identify underlying demographic, socio-economic and other relevant variables that influence the adoption of coping strategies in three distinct cyclone-prone coastal villages of Bangladesh. The study finds that cyclones and induced surges are a recurrent phenomenon in coastal Bangladesh; hence people are used to adjusting their lifestyle and adopting their own coping strategies intelligently. Adoption of a particular set of coping strategies depends not only on the magnitude, intensity and potential impacts of the cyclone and induced surge, but also age, gender, social class, dissemination of early warning information, locational exposure, external assistance, social protection and informal risk sharing mechanisms within the community. Indigenous cyclone disaster prevention and mitigation strategies significantly minimize the vulnerability of the people. Under extreme situations, when such disasters surpass the shock-bearing capacity of the victims, informal risk sharing mechanisms through social bonding and social safety-nets become vital for short-term survival and long-term livelihood security. Therefore, proper monitoring and understanding of local indigenous coping strategies are essential in order to target the most vulnerable groups exposed to disasters. Additionally, proper dissemination of early warning and government and non-government partnerships for relief and rehabilitation activities should be prioritized to ensure pro-poor disaster management activities. The study also recommends effective monitoring of the impact of aid to ensure corrective measures to avoid the development of relief dependency by disaster victims. 相似文献
15.
E. van Slobbe H. J. de Vriend S. Aarninkhof K. Lulofs M. de Vries P. Dircke 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(3):1461-1480
Low-lying, densely populated coastal areas worldwide are under threat, requiring coastal managers to develop new strategies to cope with land subsidence, sea-level rise and the increasing risk of storm-surge-induced floods. Traditional engineering approaches optimizing for safety are often suboptimal with respect to other functions and are neither resilient nor sustainable. Densely populated deltas in particular need more resilient solutions that are robust, sustainable, adaptable, multifunctional and yet economically feasible. Innovative concepts such as ‘Building with Nature’ provide a basis for coastal protection strategies that are able to follow gradual changes in climate and other environmental conditions, while maintaining flood safety, ecological values and socio-economic functions. This paper presents a conceptual framework for Building with Nature that is used to evaluate coastal protection strategies, based on a case study of the Holland coast in the Netherlands. The added value and the limitations of these strategies are discussed. 相似文献
16.
In the last decades, floods have increased in frequency all over the world due to diverse phenomena such as climate change, extended urbanization, land use, etc. Their social, cultural, economic and environmental impacts have also grown significantly, highlighting the need for the development of further studies and improved methods to manage and mitigate flood risk, mainly in urban areas. Historic sites need particular attention in this field, not only because the high and irreplaceable cultural value of these areas, but also taking into account that the constructive typologies that they host are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards. In consequence of that, the analysis of the phenomena, the evaluation of their consequences and the adoption of adequate mitigation and preparedness measures are presently a fundamental societal challenge. Having this in mind, the present paper aims at proposing an innovative methodology focused on the assessment of flood vulnerability in historic sites through the evaluation of a set of exposure and sensitivity indicators. From the analysis of these indicators, it is possible to obtain a Flood Vulnerability Index capable of measuring the spread of flood vulnerability over an extended area. The historic centre of Guimarães, in Portugal, declared by UNESCO as a World Heritage Site in 2001, is used here as a pilot case study to apply and discusses the preliminary version of the approach. Although some improvements are still needed, this approach can be already used to provides preliminary vulnerability scenarios and to point the way to the definition of more efficient and customized strategies for managing and mitigating flood risk in historic sites. Moreover, with further improvements and calibrations resorting to larger and more diverse data, it will be possible to reduce some of the uncertainties currently involved in the assessment process and to make its application wider and more robust.
相似文献17.
以受山洪灾害影响突出的云南文山城区为研究区,从承灾体属性特征和社会承灾能力二个方面探讨了城市山洪灾害易损性分析的方法;利用高分辨率遥感卫星影像为数据源完成城市土地覆盖类型解译,在此基础上应用GIS定量分析城市山洪灾害易损性。对承灾体属性特征定量分析结果表明,文山城区50年一遇山洪淹没范围内的承灾体中城市房屋建筑的易损性最大。对易损性要素中的社会承灾能力分析认为,由于文山城区段防洪河道行洪能力低,蓄滞洪能力弱。山洪灾害的易损性仍然较高,山洪对文山城威胁形势严峻。 相似文献
18.
Dire Dawa city is identified as one of the most flood-affected cities in Ethiopia. Classifying village-level flood vulnerability using flood indicators is a new approach to Dire Dawa city. Analysis of different flood vulnerability factors underpins sustainable flood risk management and the application of Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) approach is the hub of this study. Relevant data were collected from 110 households sampled from purposely selected 10 villages found in Dire Dawa city. The flood vulnerability index was used to compare, classify and rank villages in terms of their flood vulnerability levels. For this purpose, 24 sets of indicators which are strongly affecting the levels of flood vulnerability were assessed from social, economic and physical perspectives. The FVI of each village was computed with unequal method of weighting indicators. The findings of the study revealed that Dire Dawa city villages were experiencing varying levels of flood vulnerability. Accordingly, villages 05, 06, 07 and 09 were identified with high flood vulnerability level while villages 03, 04 and 08 and villages 01, 02 and extension village were identified with medium and low level of vulnerability, respectively. Interestingly, the findings of the study confirmed that social factors contributed much for flood vulnerability in Dire Dawa city. Hence, future urban flood risk planning and management endeavors in the city of Dire Dawa must be underpinned by proper utilization of the flood vulnerability map developed addressing social vulnerability component through both structural and non-structural urban flood risk management measures.
相似文献19.
Based on former conceptual models of vulnerability, this paper aims to improve the quantitative model for regional vulnerability assessment by analyzing in-depth the relation between vulnerability, exposure, coping capacity, and resilience. Taking the mountain settlements in the upper reaches of Min River, China, as a case study, the method of Contributing Weight Superposition (CWS) is applied in establishing both a model and a system for the vulnerability assessment of elements at risk. The CWS approach consists of 13 index factors including population, economic and road densities, building and farmland coverage, hazard-affected areas, urbanization rate, and GDP per capita. Accordingly, a debris flow hazard vulnerability zoning map was obtained and the assessment results show that the distribution of high and comparatively high vulnerability zones, where economic activities are considerably high, has a close correlation to the topography of the catchment and population characteristics. The results thus may serve as a pertinent guidance for settlement relocation, population distribution readjustment, and management to prevent and reduce hazards in the upper reaches of Min River and beyond. 相似文献
20.
Ibidun O. Adelekan 《Natural Hazards》2011,56(1):215-231
The paper presents the result of a vulnerability assessment of urban dwellers to a major flood hazard in Abeokuta, southwestern
Nigeria in July 2007. This was achieved by means of questionnaire survey administered to 248 flood area residents. Flood vulnerability
was assessed by examining exposure, susceptibility, and coping indicators in the study area. Findings of the study show that
although about 50% of respondents had experienced floods, in Abeokuta or elsewhere in the past, majority (66%) did not anticipate
a flood event of such magnitude to occur despite its location on a flood plain and, therefore, were unprepared for such hazard.
Pre-warning of the flood event was generally lacking among flood area residents as only 8% of respondents indicated pre-warning,
which was based on personal observations. Response to the flood hazard was mainly reactive for both private and public agents
as flood risk reduction measures were not in place. 相似文献